Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs

The first Saturday in May is the ultimate goal on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. But the first Saturday in March is often a make-or-break day on the national calendar, with key stakes in Florida, California and New York providing an uptick in intensity.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12: Front Four Unchanged Inside 75-Day Mark

There's been a mid-season reshuffling at the back of the pack within this week's rankings. The next significant target date on the GI Kentucky Derby trail that could shake up the Top 12 leaders will be the trio of preps in Florida, California and New York Mar. 4.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the legitimate kingpin atop the crop as we crest the 75-day mark until the Derby. But a two-race foundation–no matter how wowing those performances were–understandably still seems a touch precarious by conventional Derby-assessment standards.

After ransacking the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28 in his 2023 coming-out party, this sales-topping son of Uncle Mo wasn't nominated to the next leg in the Oaklawn series, which is this Saturday's GII Rebel S. Until his connections disclose details, the date and place of Arabian Knight's next start remains the most sought-after secret on the Derby trail (both for fans who want to see him race and the connections of contenders who want to avoid him).

Last week's federal court ruling denying Bob Baffert an injunction to avoid a Churchill Downs ban on his Derby participation is already resulting in some movement of his sophomore contenders to other trainers. But that news, if or when it comes for Arabian Knight, shouldn't overshadow the fact that this classy colt has sky's-the-limit potential augmented by a confident demeanor and a blazing natural quickness that doesn't cross the line into being speed-crazy.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte is five works into his training for the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S., and Saturday's five-eighths breeze at Palm Beach Downs was a bullet in 1:01.41 (1/10). For months, trainer Todd Pletcher has articulated a two-prep path to Louisville, with the second race expected to be either the GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland (site of Forte's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile triumph).

Leggy and athletic in the same manner as his sire, Violence, this 'TDN Rising Star' stands out because of his ability to carve out ideal tactical positioning to set up a powerful punch off the far turn, and Forte won three Grade I stakes last season from seven furlongs up to 1 1/16 miles.

Pletcher has twice trained a 2-year-old Eclipse Award-winning colt who won the Juvenile. How did they fare in their comebacks?

In January 2013, Shanghai Bobby ran second at even-money in his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream in the GIII Holy Bull S. In March 2011, Pletcher found a cushy winning spot for the returning Uncle Mo, who was 1-20 in the betting to beat four others in a non-graded $100,000 stakes at Gulfstream.

Regardless of what you think of Forte himself, be aware that historically, the Fountain of Youth has been a notorious trap for high-profile favorites. Although the chalk has won the last two editions, the public's choice has gone down in defeat in 12 of the last 16 runnings, including one demotion via disqualification.

Two weeks to the day since his scintillating one-turn-mile allowance win at Gulfstream, this $1.3-million KEESEP colt returned to the worktab Saturday with an unhurried :50.93 half-mile breeze (27/33) at Palm Beach Downs.

While stablemate Forte, ranked above at No. 2, sports the more accomplished resume, this 'TDN Rising Star' is more of the “now” colt considering the two impressive scores he's racked up since Dec. 17.

His Beyer Speed Figures signal legitimacy with room for improvement, while cresting upward over three races (73-87-92), and Tapit Trice also rates highly from a “how he did it” visual perspective that emphasizes his ability to build serious far-turn momentum.

True, he'll head into the month of March without a race at two turns. But with a pedigree anchored by sire Tapit and a female family clustered with stayers capable of fast clockings (A.P. Indy, Seattle Slew, Secretariat), this isn't the type of prospect you'd doubt would be able to sustain his speed over added ground.

Rocket Can got bumped and was away last when sprinting seven furlongs in his Saratoga debut Aug. 6, yet he still managed to pick off half the pack to finish fifth for a trainer (Bill Mott) not known for springing first-out winners.

He then ran an uninspiring seventh, beaten 16 lengths on closing weekend at the Spa over the same distance, behind eventual two-time stakes winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro).

But a transition to two turns Oct. 30 at Churchill brought advancement. This Into Mischief gray broke running from post 10 in the slop, staked out an assertive stalking position, got first run at the two pacemakers a quarter mile from the wire, then held sway in a length-of-stretch showdown.

He almost prevailed next time out in a Nov. 26 first-level allowance, again at 1 1/16 miles, losing by only half a length while engaging in another deep-race tussle, and although he finished second, Rocket Can gave the impression he's not the type to back down from stretch slugfests.

His Holy Bull S. score Feb. 4 was more impressive than the tepid 82 Beyer it earned, because the relatively low fig is offset by the ground Rocket Can gave up on both bends before unleashing another focused, mentally intent finish. Right now this colt rates as the type of Derby prospect who isn't likely to dominate or scare away the competition. But his efficiency, resilience, and willingness to mix it up when challenged are all valuable, intangible assets.

Cave Rock, the beaten favorite in last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile when second behind Forte, is on target to be the latest-returning Top 12 contender of the 2023 season. He has no publicly declared prep race on his radar, and this 'TDN Rising Star' is just two half-mile breezes into training for his sophomore debut.

After starting the season ranked at No. 3, he's been leapfrogged on this list by colts with more recent form. But the gravitas of what this fullback-sized son of Arrogate accomplished at age two (three straight wins, including two in Grade I stakes and one with a gaudy 104 Beyer) will still merit respect when he finally hits the entries.

Cave Rock has been able to generate an intimidatingly high cruising speed up to 1 1/16 miles. But what most Derby prognosticators will be watching for is whether or not he has outgrown his hot-headed tendencies. This colt's loss in the Breeders' Cup was at least partially attributable to him getting visibly keyed-up before the race and then getting sucked into sparring with a 70-1 long shot through an imprudent :22.90 opening quarter.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start:2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
'TDN Rising Star' Faustin has now fired two bullet moves at four and five furlongs after being outgunned by a stablemate when second in the GII San Vicente S. Jan. 29.
He was tasked with sprinting seven furlongs in that race (shorter than what his pedigree indicates he's capable of) and was forced to try and reel in a loose-on-the-lead favorite under less-than-ideal tactical circumstances. Still, he upped his Beyer by two points off a powerful debut win (89 to 91), and that learning experience, combined with his being by Curlin out of a Hard Spun mare, should pave the way for an improvement in a two-turn stakes.
Faustin is a high-energy gray who, in his Dec. 26 debut, was unfazed by a slow start and twice having to switch off heels at the head of the homestretch.
It is a touch concerning, though, that the horses Faustin beat in that MSW have only managed a collective 1-for-7 record in their next outs, indicating he roughed up a subpar bunch.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
Hejazi broke his maiden in start number four for trainer Bob Baffert Jan. 15, but over the weekend got transferred to trainer Tim Yakteen as per the nominations list for the one-turn-mile Mar. 4 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct.
A $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, this New York-bred son of Bernardini has the unusual distinction of having run a 100 Beyer Speed Figure in a losing maiden effort (back on Sept. 10 at Del Mar), and he's never been off the board (including when third as a maiden in the GI American Pharoah S. Oct. 8).
He was able to set the pace under pressure at the rail in his MSW victory over 6 1/2 furlongs after stalking the pace in his first three attempts.

8) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Table; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-2-1-0, $260,150. Last Start: 1st Opt. Clm at Oaklawn Park Jan. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 4.
Verifying, a May 11 foal who is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, drew the rail for Saturday's Rebel S. at Oaklawn. He's forced the issue in three of his four lifetime races, so that post should play to his advantage by allowing him to secure a forwardly placed ground-saving spot.
This $775,000 KEESEP son of Justify's career started with an 85-Beyer sprint win at the Spa, followed by a second in the GI Champagne S., and then a trouble-at-the-start sixth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Freshened until Jan. 14, Verifying roared back to the winner's circle with a 97-Beyer, first-level allowance win at Oaklawn. The second- and third-place finishers out of that race have both since come back to win allowance miles in subsequent starts.

9) ARTHUR'S RIDE (c, Tapit–Points of Grace, by Point Given) O-Karl & Cathi Glassman; B-Helen & Joseph Barbazon & Tapit Syndicate (Fl); T-William Mott. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $93,800. Last Start: 1st Maiden Special Weight at Gulfstream Feb. 11. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
Arthur's Ride started his career in the same two seven-furlong MSW contests at Saratoga as fellow-gray stablemate Rocket Can ranked above at No. 4, and he finished second on both occasions.
This $250,000 KEESEP colt resurfaced for trainer Bill Mott Feb. 11 at Gulfstream in a one-turn mile, and as the 2-1 second choice he really caught the eye by taking pace pressure at the rail from the 6-5 favorite for most of the race.
He actually lost but clawed back the lead on two occasions through the turn, and then after he dispatched the chalk, Arthur's Ride ably repulsed what looked like a winning bid from the third choice in the betting.
His damsire Point Given was the beaten fave in the 2001 Derby, but won the GI Preakness S., GI Belmont S. and GI Travers S., while maternal grandsire Thunder Gulch won the 1995 Derby, Belmont, and Travers.

10) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.
Trainer Brad Cox opted not to aim for this past Saturday's Risen Star S. with Instant Coffee, saying he will instead point straight to the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby coming off this colt's last-to-first win in the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 21.
This son of Bolt d'Oro had been absent from the work tab for four weeks, but he was finally back in action with a moderate :49.80 half-mile breeze (34/109) at Fair Grounds Feb. 18.
That plan of race spacing will leave a nine-week gap for Instant Coffee to try to make the leap from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, and then another six weeks off until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby. Cox has expressed a belief that this light-on-his-feet colt should relish those longer distances.
But Instant Coffee hasn't had the most arduous path to victory in either of his two stakes wins, having beaten only one current Top 12 foe in either the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. or the Lecomte, and that makes it tough to project how he'll fare when faced with more intense competition.

11) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 6-1-1-1, $313,575. Last Start: 2nd in Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.
This Saturday's Rebel S. at 1 1/16 miles might not be the spot where Red Route One finally uncorks the “put it all together” type of stretch run he's shown flashes of being capable of. But with a stout Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare breeding line, he's looming as a longer-the-better Derby prospect who one of these days is going to catch the right pace setup and a clear enough trip to outrun long odds.
He already has a sturdy foundation of six lifetime races, all at a mile or longer, and this homebred for Winchell Thoroughbreds was most recently a best-of-the-rest second when rallying from last behind No. 1-ranked Arabian Knight in the Southwest S. four weeks ago.
He had significant trip trouble and/or encountered ground loss in all three of his stakes attempts at age two, yet he still managed a couple of decent third- and fourth-place tries.
However, this deep-closing chestnut has still never won on dirt, with his only victory coming over a mile at Kentucky Downs nearly six months ago.

12) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29.
Is it too deep into the prep season to tout a sprinter who wired the field at first asking onto the list? By conventional standards, yes. But convention on the Derby trail has long since flown the coop, thanks to the stylishly late-on-the-scene Justify in 2018 (a Feb. 18 debut), and the overall less-is-more mindset in bringing along sophomore prospects.
Yet when Hall-of-Fame conditioner Richard Mandella is the trainer of a flashy winning firster like Geaux Rocket Ride, you pay attention.
This colt is aiming for the Mar. 4 GII San Felipe S. at 1 1/16 miles after administering a full-bore clock-cleaning of a Santa Anita MSW crew over six furlongs Jan. 29. That display of dominance was timed in 1:09.52 and featured a decisive swat-down of the 1-2 favorite before “Geaux” rolled home by 5 3/4 lengths. This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) earned a 92 Beyer for the effort.
Underscoring that he doesn't make the trip to Louisville unless he's confident he has the right horse, Mandella hasn't had a Kentucky Derby starter since 2004. But in 2019 he was on the cusp of saddling the imposing favorite, Omaha Beach, before having to scratch the colt several days before the Derby because of an entrapped epiglottis.

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TDN Derby Top 12: The Strong Get Stronger

Several contenders at the top of this week's rankings solidified their status, but one new shooter debuted at No. 4 to add some intrigue as we edge past the 90-day mark to the GI Kentucky Derby.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

Arabian Knight's thorough ransacking of the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28 effectively slammed the door on any early-season debate about whether or not this 'TDN Rising Star' would live up to the outsized hype heaped upon him after just a single sprint win three months ago.

This speed-centric, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) not only wired the field with aplomb, but he checked a lot of boxes on the Derby intangibles list, including shipping away from his home base, handling both a sloppy racing surface and two turns, and showing that being confronted with multiple tactical in-race challenges didn't faze him in the least.

Arabian Knight broke fluidly and willingly, then effortlessly cleared the pesky 46-1 Frosted Departure (Frosted), who had inside position. Splashing onto the backstretch, Arabian Knight was looking around “a lot” according to jockey John Velazquez, who moved him off the rail to relax, maintaining a steady leading margin of 1 1/2 lengths into the far turn. The second and third favorites launched one-punch bids that soon flattened out, but the overachieving Frosted Departure was still gamely shadowing the 2-5 fave, having whittled down the lead to half a length at the head of the homestretch.

Velazquez then got after his colt, but Arabian Knight only needed two cracks of the crop and some mild hand-urging to mesh into an unmatchable deep-stretch gear that surely did not come close to scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves. “Going to the wire I was like, 'Okay, that's what I wanted to see,” Velazquez said post-win.

It's tough to tease out any “cons” to go along with all these gushing “pros” about Arabian Knight's sophomore unveiling. If there is one, it might be a very mild quibble about the Beyer Speed Figure he earned (96), which marked a slight regression from his 97 debut in a MSW on the Breeders' Cup undercard back in November

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte (Violence) is three workouts into his training for the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. Even though this 'TDN Rising Star' ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) capped his 2-year-old season with a definitive win in the Breeders' Cup, proponents of key races have long since locked in on Forte's other Grade I route victory, the Oct. 8 Breeders' Futurity S., as the defining stakes race on the Derby trail so far.

In addition to Forte's next-out tally in the GI Juvenile, that Keeneland race also yielded back-to-back next-out Grade II and III stakes winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro); the next-out Grade III winner Two Phil's (Hard Spun); the eventual Grade III winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Newgate (Into Mischief); one other next-out listed stakes winner, and a next-out allowance winner. In addition, the runner-up in that race, the highly acclaimed Loggins (Ghostzapper), who has yet to have a published workout in 2023, rates highly on many “wiseguy” lists as the juvenile who ran the best losing effort in a Grade I stakes last season.

There have now been 11 Kentucky Derby qualifying points races run at 1 1/16 miles. No Derby prospect since has eclipsed Forte's 100 Beyer from that race (although two have tied it), and his closing final-sixteenth fraction of :6.19 in the stretch run of the Juvenile is still fastest among the 1 1/16-mile preps.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Trainer Todd Pletcher has been known to make judicious use of Florida allowance races in prepping his Derby prospects, and Saturday's eight-length blowout in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream left the impression this $1.3-million KEESEP colt by Tapit has the athleticism and confidence to be a major player when assigned a two-turn stakes task.

Breaking from the rail as a first-time Lasix user Feb. 4, Tapit Trice (again) was a touch slow leaving the gate. Luis Saez swooped him out to the five path, and this assertive gray picked off half the pack to carve out a sweet stalking spot, gaining incrementally down the long backstraight run. Tapit Trice built up serious momentum by the five-sixteenths pole, and when he accosted his favored stablemate for the lead, he managed to dispatch him without serious tussle.

Slicing into the home stretch with no rivals left to conquer, Tapit Trice got to gawking a bit, but Saez refocused him with one stern right-handed swat nearing the furlong marker before finishing under a moderate drive.

The 92-Beyer win generated no shortage of speculation about how Tapit Trice might have prevailed had he instead been entered in the GIII Holy Bull S. over 1 1/16 miles that same afternoon. But his first-level allowance win will prove useful in the long run considering this colt still needs to work on alertness out of the gate, a minor issue that up to this point has been overcome by raw ability and prime positioning in one-turn miles.

Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA, is a good example of a Derby prospect whose visual impressions rate quite a bit higher than the speed numbers he's earned in those races.

The 82-Beyer victor of Saturday's Holy Bull S. gave up considerable ground on both turns while always being within three lengths of striking distance from the leaders. Urged five-sixteenths out by Junior Alvarado, Rocket Can responded on cue, seizing the lead off the turn and remaining mentally intent through the stretch, maintaining a three-quarter length winning margin with a bearing-down stablemate hot on his heels.

Starting with a switch to routes in his third start, trainer Bill Mott has developed an efficient gray who now comes out running to establish key positioning, knows how to pounce off the far turn, and without hesitation throws himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns.

Rocket Can's mid-pack tactics in the Holy Bull were also against the grain of Gulfstream's short-stretch track layout for 1 1/16 miles, which had him starting from the outermost post very close to the first turn in a race that ends at the sixteenth pole. And he did his job while overcoming a moderate tempo that did no pace favors to aid his stalking style.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

Banishing has resumed training after getting cast in his stall Jan. 20, requiring sutures to close a hind-leg cut.

Trainer Brendan Walsh told Daily Racing Form last week that “nothing has been ruled out or ruled in” as far as the next race for this Godolphin homebred. He had been slated to start favored in allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds the day after his accident, but had to scratch.

With a pedigree that looks more tantalizing the closer we get to 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May (by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare), this chestnut with a distinctive white blaze won at second asking on Dec. 26 over 1 1/16 miles in New Orleans, bounding home by 8 1/2 lengths and earning a 90 Beyer for the effort.

He was a front-running force in that race, displaying measured speed while edging away under pressure before cracking open the race late. His final time of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles four races later on that card.

6) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

It's rare when you encounter a pedigree with a breeding line that features a sire (Arrogate at 122) and damsire (Bellamy Road at 120) who both posted stratospheric Beyer figures of at least 120 during their racing careers.

Cave Rock himself ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) uncorked a 101 Beyer in his 6 1/2-furlong sprint debut last summer at Del Mar, and he upped the ante to 104 with a dominant win in the GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita.

He was then a beaten favorite with reasonable excuses in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (hot and bothered pre-race, worked too hard through quick opening quarter).

But those imposing stats all start to fade in relevancy the longer this 'TDN Rising Star' remains without a published workout. As of Monday morning, he's the only Top 12 contender yet to hit the worktab this year, and trainer Bob Baffert now faces a race against the clock to launch a campaign that includes at least one prep race between now and May 6.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

On the face of it, 'TDN Rising Star' Faustin's second-place finish in the four-horse, seven-furlong Jan. 29 GII San Vicente S. was only a so-so effort. But from a longer-term developmental perspective, the race could still end up being a useful stepping-stone.

The winner was his stablemate, Havnameltdown (Uncaptured), who looks, acts, and performs like a true one-turn stakes colt. Havnameltdown also had everything his own way on the front end, and while Faustin did show some flashes of interest–like diving into an opening at the rail when jockey Ramon Vazquez shook the reins to cue him three-eighths out–this son of Curlin (out of a Hard Spun mare) clearly needs more real estate to uncoil effectively.

Trainer Bob Baffert said post-race that Havnameltdown “will stay one turn. Faustin, he was kind of a grinding slow, he wants to go longer. [But] you try to get outs into them so they'll learn and you'll figure [them out]. The problem is that if you break your maiden first time out, you have to run in stakes. It is that way all over the country. Just getting these races into them it is important. Faustin, you can tell he is not there yet. [But] once he goes two turns, you'll see a big difference in him. He wat trying to get there, but he was running against a top-class sprinter.”

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Signator, a $1.7-million OBSAPR son of Tapit, is gearing up for his 2023 campaign after being sidelined late last fall with a wrenched ankle.

His professional, stalking score while driving through at the rail in an Oct. 14 MSW mile at Aqueduct was eye-catching enough to earn 'TDN Rising Star' status, and he's now three breezes into his work pattern at Payson Park.

“I haven't really picked out a place to run him yet, but it won't be long,” trainer Shug McGuaghey said on Friday, adding that Gulfstream or Tampa are the two likely comeback spots. “He's grown, gotten bigger, and filled out the way we want him to.”
McGuaghey is quite familiar with the female side of Signator's pedigree, having trained the dam (Pension), the second dam (Furlough), and great-grandsire Easy Goer.

“Signator is a lot different than Pension. She was very high-strung, and just broke her maiden. But some of the others were fairly nice,” he added with understatement.

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

This son of son of 2017 Belmont S. victor Tapwrit ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; EASMAY $340,000) has compiled a 3-for-3 record, but he'll be due for a dive into the graded end of the stakes pool in his next outing, which is likely to come at either Fair Grounds or Oaklawn.

A 'TDN Rising Star,' Victory Formation sports a decent MSW-allowance-ungraded stakes progression, with ascending winning Beyer figures of 81-85-91.

Trainer Brad Cox has described him as an intelligent colt who “doesn't overdo it,” which he believes will only be a plus as the distances increase along with the demands of tougher competition.

Victory Formation's current company lines could use some beefing up: The three horses who ran 3-4-5 behind him in the Jan. 1, short-stretch Smarty Jones S. all failed to win in next-out stakes, with all three of them regressing on the Beyer scale.

10) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: 4-1-1-0, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

When a Bob Baffert-trained colt requires four starts to break his maiden, that usually relegates him to the “B” list within a stable of sophomores that annually fields a pretty deep bench.

I wouldn't count Hejazi out of the mix based on that profile, though. The $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, this New York-bred son of Bernardini ran better in his trio of defeats than those races might seem on paper.

A step slow out of the gate in his Aug. 20 Del Mar sprint debut, Hejazi rushed up to lead between calls, backed off, then fired again to land second behind an eventual grass stakes winner.

Start No. 2 saw Hejazi drawn way out in post 10 sprinting 5 ½ furlongs, and he flashed wide speed behind wire-to-wire stablemate Speed Boat Beach (Bayern), who established a track-record clocking and has subsequently gone on to win two turf stakes.

Start No. 3 was an ambitious push to try and get Hejazi to the Breeders' Cup, and as a maiden against winners in the American Pharoah S. he managed third behind stablemate Cave Rock, the eventual favorite and runner-up in the Juvenile.

A three-month freshening did Hejazi a world of good, and he finally hit the winner's circle going 6 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 15, swatting away two challengers inside the final half a furlong (97 Beyer).

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee, who just hit his third birthday Feb. 6, was a surprising sort straight out of the gate, winning over seven furlongs in his Sept. 3 Saratoga debut at 14-1 odds.

In three 1 1/16 miles since then, he's overachieved without being overwhelming, winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 and the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 by rallying off the tailgate with wide, steady drives.

The only loss to date for this $200,000 KEESEP grad came in start No. 2, and considering Instant Coffee was making the jump straight into Grade I company while going around two turns for the first time in the key-race Breeders' Futurity S., he actually managed a decent fourth behind eventual divisional champ Forte.

Instant Coffee's race spacing and foundation both leave room for continued improvement, with trainer Brad Cox indicating that one or two additional stakes in the Fair Grounds prep series are on his radar.

12) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $69,750. Last Start: Won Sar Maiden Special Weight, Aug. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

It's now been half a year since Disarm has been in the entries. This 'TDN Rising Star' (based on his 6 ¼-length, 86-Beyer Saratoga sprint score Aug. 6) has been breezing somewhat under the radar at Fair Grounds, but he's now four works in and up to five furlongs.

“He's training with anticipation of him making it back to the Derby trail,” owner/breeder Ron Winchell texted to TDN over the weekend. As for a target race, Winchell wrote that he and trainer Steve Asmussen “will know more after his next work.”

Last summer, Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy. Looks like he's gonna stretch out beautifully. We will definitely get to dream with him for a while.”

Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons, and at the time, Asmussen predicted a return sometime during the New Orleans winter/spring meet.

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TDN Derby Top 12: Little Thaw in Early Winter Ranks

We're still in the early part of the season where the rankings are largely based on juvenile form and a hefty dose of speculation. As we segue into February, the forecast calls for “frost heaves” that will likely shift the balance of power just enough to keep things interesting. But at 15 weeks out, everyone on the GI Kentucky Derby trail is still allowed to dream big.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $86,025. Last start: 1st Keeneland Maiden Special Weight, Nov. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR sale-topper) is Oaklawn-bound. Trainer Bob Baffert disclosed to Daily Racing Form on Sunday that the

GIII Southwest S. on Saturday will be the 2023 coming-out party for the powerful colt who blitzed to a dominant (7 1/4 lengths with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure) victory on the Breeders' Cup undercard in his one and only start.

To put this son of Uncle Mo's 1:21.98 final clocking from that race into perspective, the only other seven-furlong race on Breeders' Cup Saturday, the GI Filly and Mare Sprint, which featured older, highly accomplished distaffers, was timed just .37 seconds faster.

“He's not speed-crazy,” jockey John Velazquez said after that scintillating win. “I put my hands down, he came right back to me. Settled really good on the turn, and when I asked him to go down the stretch, he was there for me.”

At this point we have to insert the usual disclaimer that's become standard in the Top 12 write-ups the past two years: Churchill Downs has banned Baffert from the Derby related to his under-appeal equine drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points and competing in the Derby itself. But while this issue plays out via litigation and at the racing commission level, the focus here will be on the talents of his horses and not courtroom drama.

Saturday's Southwest now looms as the most compelling stakes on the Derby trail that we've seen so far this year.

Beyond the gravitas of having won three straight Grade I stakes, including his 100-Beyer score in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Forte stands out among the Top 12 contenders for his ability to break well, settle willingly, and reel in targets.

Those traits were evident in both of his wins at 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland and his neck victory in the GI Breeders' Futurity S. (with the remainder of the field six lengths behind the top two) was in many ways a more powerful performance than his 1 1/2-length Juvenile tally.

This 'TDN Rising Star' was forwardly placed, but edged back to seventh in his Oct. 8 race, attained a nice cruising speed amongst traffic, then methodically worked his way up to a contending spot before being fully unleashed off the far turn to knock back multiple bids from a very game runner-up.

In the Juvenile, Forte again came out running, picked a prime stalking spot, waited patiently, then sliced off the inside while building up serious momentum to collar a wilting favorite before being kept to task through the final sixteenth.

The Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream is slated as his sophomore debut, with the GI Florida Derby or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. possibilities after that. An easy three-eighths breeze on Saturday marked his return to the work tab at Palm Beach Downs.

3) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

Purely based on the way the Breeders' Cup Juvenile unfolded, 'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock's beaten-fave second has a “lost the battle, but it could improve his chances in the overall war” type of flavor to it.

This strapping son of Arrogate got keyed up pre-race and exerted himself trying to fight free from a 70-1 long shot through an opening quarter of :22.90 (second-fastest opening split in the Juvenile since 2014), then had little left to stave off the onrushing Forte.

A bit of growing up so that his temperament matches the talent he displayed in getting off to a 3-for-3 start last summer (including two Grade I wins at Del Mar) will go a long way toward leveling his chances in a rematch–although he and his rival are unlikely to meet until the Derby itself considering Cave Rock is based in SoCal and Forte is wintering in Florida.

If you go by longer-term trends, losing the Juvy might also actually work in Cave Rock's favor: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Derby wins (Nyquist in 2016 and Street Sense in 2007) from 38 runnings.

Then again, second- and third-place Juvenile finishers haven't fared much better. Those 76 horses have also accounted for only two Derby wins, by Alysheba in 1987 (third in the 1986 Juvenile) and Spend A Buck in 1985 (third in the 1984 Juvenile).

4) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $56,950. Last start: 1st Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 17. KY Derby Points: 0.

Tapit Trice was a touch green at the start of his Nov. 6 debut, then split horses capably and finished with interest, justifying 17-10 favoritism in his Dec. 17 maiden-breaking win.

Both races were more visually impressive than their Beyers (73 and 89) suggest, and considering that Tapit Trice's one-turn-mile score came over a muddy, sealed Aqueduct surface, the suggestion here is to take those speed figures with a figurative grain of salt.

The vagaries of winter racing in New York can sometimes make it difficult to come up with accurate projections and final numbers, and as we saw last season on the Triple Crown trail (when eventual GI Preakness S. winner Early Voting got a winning 78 Beyer from February at Aqueduct retooled months later to a significantly higher 87), all figures are subject to revision when circumstances warrant it.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP is now at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher and has been breezing on a weekly basis for his first start against winners.

Banishing had to scratch out of an allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds on Saturday after reportedly getting cast in his stall and scraping a hind leg. The abrasions aren't considered serious enough to derail him from long-term training.

This Godolphin homebred broke his maiden over 1 1/16 miles Dec. 26 in New Orleans, edging away on the lead while taking pace pressure before blasting the race open in deep stretch by 8 1/2 lengths (90 Beyer). That MSW route has already yielded one next-out winner, who popped at 18-1 odds on Saturday.

Banishing's Nov. 13 debut in a one-turn-mile at Churchill was also much better than it appears on paper: He raced in the 10 path early yet contested the pace, then rallied four wide into the turn before almost attaining the lead between calls. After it looked like he was fading from his mid-race efforts, he kicked in again and secured fourth.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last start: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin earned 'TDN Rising Star' status sprinting in his Dec. 26 debut, but you don't have to dig too deeply in his pedigree to uncover reliable stamina influences.

At 10 furlongs, sire Curlin ran third in the 2007 Derby and later won the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, while damsire Hard Spun was Curlin's rival that same season, finishing just ahead of him when second in the Derby and right behind him when second in the Classic. Faustin's dam, Hard Not to Like, was a three-time Grade I grass victress at distances up to nine furlongs. And his second dam on the female side, Like a Gem, scored in three grass routes in Canada, including one at 1 1/4 miles at age three.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR after breezing an eighth in :10 flat), a high-energy gray, was unfazed by a slow start, a “busy” ride, and twice having to switch off heels turning for home in his 89-Beyer win.

7) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Much like Tapit Trice ranked at No. 4, Signator is another son of Tapit who wasn't quite ready for prime time in his debut, but nevertheless raced with enough promise despite greenness to win as the deserving favorite in start number two.

And yes, just like it was mentioned in Tapit Trice's write-up, this could be a case in which the visual resonance of Signator's races rate higher than the two Beyers he received (73 in each race).

This $1.7 million OBSAPR colt was penciled in for a third start, in the Nov. 6 GIII Nashua S., but trainer Shug McGuaghey had to withdraw him because of a wrenched ankle that has since healed. After a Dec. 31 breeze at Payson Park, Signator was absent from the work tab until Jan. 18, so it looks like he's going to need a touch more time before we see him in the entries, most likely at either Gulfstream or Tampa.

8) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

Even though he's a 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star,' Victory Formation flies a touch under the radar within the Top 12. But that's primarily because his connections have shaped his early-career progression arc without yet attempting a graded stakes.

This son of 2017 GI Belmont S. victor Tapwrit most recently coasted home unopposed by three lengths at 3-5 odds in Oaklawn's short-stretch Smarty Jones S. at one mile, and even though that field gave off a weak-on-paper vibe, the win still represented a capable, no-nonsense two-turn debut and it capped a trio of escalating Beyers that now reads 81, 85 and 91 without any numerical regression so far.

“He's a pretty smart horse,” trainer Brad Cox recently told the Oaklawn notes team. “I know I've said that several times, but he really is. He's a horse that doesn't overdo it. He's not too hard on himself and I think that's going to take him a long way and, hopefully, allow him to get more ground.”

The nine-furlong Feb. 18 GII Risen Star S. at Victory Formation's Fair Grounds training base could be next, with the following Saturday's 1 1/16-miles GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn a possible backup option.

9) HEJAZI (c, 3, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc. B-Chester & Mary Broman (NY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: Maiden win at SA Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

With the exception of his sale-topping $3.55-million EASMAY price tag, Hejazi doesn't fit the mold of many of Bob Baffert's trainees who embark upon the Derby trail.

For starters, this colt is a New York-bred. His three older siblings own an aggregate record of 3-for-35, competing largely at the low end of the claiming echelon. Hejazi also required four starts to break his maiden.

But the experience he compiled at age two includes two runner-up tries (one behind a track-record winning stablemate at 5 1/2 furlongs), plus a third-place effort in a Grade I route when up against No. 3-ranked phenom Cave Rock.

“We gave him some time, gave him a chance to reboot,” said Baffert after this colt's 97-Beyer win as a first-time Lasix user going 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 15. “We wanted to get some weight back on him. We put him through a pretty ambitious [juvenile campaign].”

Sent for speed from post one, always under pressure, and shrugging off his two closest pursuers with aplomb inside the final sixteenth, Hejazi's “worth-the-wait” effort was athletically impressive enough to land him a berth within the Top 12.

10) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee has now taken the overland route from off the pace to win two consecutive graded stakes at 1 1/16 miles after his 92-Beyer score in the GIII Lecomte S. on Saturday.

There were six races at that distance Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds, and this son of Bolt d'Oro posted the fastest final clocking, running .19 seconds quicker than older Grade III stakes horses in the Louisiana S. a half-hour earlier.

When compared to his sophomore peers however, Instant Coffee's final times for the Lecomte and his win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. represent the sixth- and seventh-slowest among the eight points-awarding Derby qualifying races run so far at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23.

Trainer Brad Cox said Sunday that Instant Coffee is likely to keep racing in New Orleans, but he's undecided if the remainder of his prep campaign will include both the Risen Star S. and the GII Louisiana Derby, or just the Louisiana Derby itself.

11) JACE'S ROAD (c, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver Deputy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Colts Neck Stables (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-0-1, $126,800. Last Start: Won Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kentucky Derby Points: 13

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road already has run three two-turn stakes. Even though one of them is a complete “put a line through it” type of race, the important thing is this $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road rebounded capably to win right back off what trainer Brad Cox described as a “meltdown” performance.

In the GIII Street Sense S .at Churchill Oct. 30, favorite Jace's Road dislodged his jockey at the gate, jogged off for a furlong, was remounted, then ran a lackluster eighth over a sealed, sloppy surface.

We'll still probably have to guess as to whether he'll be able handle another off track. But his rebound race in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds was a 90-Beyer wiring that underscored this colt's ability to put his head down, find the front, and take pressure while seeming unfazed by it en route to the winner's circle.

Jace's Road was projected to be the early favorite for Saturday's Southwest S. before word broke that No. 1-ranked Arabian Knight would be crashing the party.

12) DETERMINEDLY (c, Cairo Prince–Bailzee, by Grand Slam) O-John Oxley. B-Bedouin Bloodstock (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $80,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 8-2-2-1, $188,950. Last Start: AOC victory at Fair Grounds Jan. 21. Kentucky Derby Points: 3.

Determinedly, an $80,000 KEESEP gray by Cairo Prince, already has made eight starts. That's not a huge number by historical standards, but in this less-is-more era of prepping Derby prospects, his experience stands out.

True, it took him six tries to find the winner's circle. But he did race respectably against grass stakes company at Saratoga last summer while still a maiden, and his transition back to dirt has resulted in a maiden win, a trip-troubled third in the Gun Runner S., and a score on Saturday in an allowance/optional claimer (the one that No. 5-ranked Banishing scratched out of).

He shook free on the front end through moderate splits and did tire a bit late, but the effort bears watching as a stepping-stone type of race considering he showed a new dimension in seizing the lead.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Little Thaw in Early Winter Ranks appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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