Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

TDN Derby Top 20: The Waiting is the Hardest Part

The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths, with several horses included here who are currently below the cut. View the qualifying list here.

1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move has the distinction of being the only Derby contender this year to run two triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures at age three, earning a 100 in each of his last two wins, the GII San Felipe S. and the GI Santa Anita Derby.

Among all the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” qualifying races in 2022-23, this Tim Yakteen trainee also produced the two fastest final clockings at 1 1/16 miles (GII Los Alamitos Futurity and San Felipe), plus the quickest nine-furlong winning time (Santa Anita Derby).

Beyond the question of “how fast,” Practical Move rates highly from a “how he does it” perspective. Regular rider Ramon Vazquez should feel pretty confident he's on a colt who has enough tactical speed to be placed within the first flight and doesn't shy from slicing through tight inside passages. Practical Move's late-race torque is a proven commodity that he's used to his advantage in three consecutive rail-running victories.

Vazquez has had only one previous Derby mount, a trip-troubled 13th in 2015 aboard the 36-1 Mr. Z.

Although Practical Move's sire, Practical Joke, was a three-time Grade I winner in New York, he never won a two-turn race (fifth in the 2017 Derby). Maternal grandsire Afleet Alex, though, ran third in the 2005 Derby, then won both the GI Preakness S. and GI Belmont S.

Practical Move | Benoit

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte sports a daunting 6-for-7 career record and he hasn't had a single training setback at age three, winning the two prep races (GII Fountain of Youth S. and GI Florida Derby) that trainer Todd Pletcher said he would target after this tall, lanky colt won last November's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Peer closely at that past-performance block though, and you can see reasons why some handicappers will be willing to bet against this son of Violence on Derby Day.

Even if you don't believe in speed figures at their face-value level, it's concerning when any horse-let alone a divisional champion-regresses in his overall pattern from age two to three. Forte ran a 100 Beyer in the Juvenile, dipped to a 98 in the Fountain of Youth, then checked in with a 95 in the Florida Derby.

That Fountain of Youth slippage might be forgiven considering Forte prowled around the track like he knew he had the field at his mercy and was geared down in the final stages when his win was evident. The Florida Derby, though, featured robust early splits (it was the only nine-furlong prep this season in which the first three quarters were all clocked in sub-24 seconds). Yet when Forte unleashed his customary late kick, it came during a so-so final quarter in :25.72 and a tepid final eighth in :13.02.

Still, you have to respect that this is an A-level athlete who simply fires on the far turn every time out.

It's also noteworthy that Forte's three most visually appealing races (GI Breeders' Futurity, Juvenile, Fountain of Youth) all came over short-stretch configurations with the finish line at or near the sixteenth pole, a setup that does not traditionally favor horses kicking in from farther back. The Derby distance and Churchill's ample stretch both have the potential to work to Forte's advantage.

Forte | Lauren King

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show, a 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West, has the distinction of going off favored in every one of his races. His three victories were open-length romps, and his only two losses were a second by a nose in the roughly run GII Wood Memorial (after overcoming post 12) and a fourth at age two in his first try against winners (when he bobbled at the break).

Although the two horses ranked above him-Practical Move and Forte-earned their spots based on proven ability, Hit Show is more of a speculative selection based on the assumption that he'll offer significantly overlaid value while being primed to peak on Derby Day.

Hit Show is a May 9 foal. Although exact foaling date records are sketchy prior to 1940, 11 known May foals have won the Derby dating to 1875. The most recent two were Authentic in 2020 (who won a Derby that was run in September) and Country House in 2019 (who crossed the wire second but was elevated to the win because of the disqualification of Maximum Security).

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), like Hit Show, also won't technically turn three until after the Derby (May 11). But he ran a “wise beyond his age” second in the GI Blue Grass S., beaten only a neck after twice clawing back the lead in a heavyweight stretch smackdown with No. 5-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit).

This Justify colt is a half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou. Beyond the Triple Crown-winning cachet atop his pedigree, Verifying's female family includes some overlooked nuggets. Damsire Repent was a hard-charging early favorite for the 2002 Derby before getting derailed from the Triple Crown series by an ankle injury. And Repent's sire, Louis Quatorze, wired the 1996 GI Preakness S.

A decent post draw and a clean break almost certainly puts Verifying in the hunt for the lead in the Derby, an obvious plus considering eight of the past nine Derbies have been won by horses either on the front end or forcing the issue.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice “takes a little while to get going,” according to jockey Luis Saez. But once he picks up steam, look out. He rolled to victory from off the tailgate in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, and looked beaten on the far turn of the Blue Grass S. before relentlessly reeling in Verifying to win a length-of-stretch battle.

Tapit Trice closed with gusto through a final furlong in :12.40, the fastest final eighth in the Blue Grass since Keeneland switched back to dirt in the fall of 2014. Even more impressive is that he launched his sustained move six furlongs out, which no other competitor on the Derby trail has come close to doing this season.

This gray son of Tapit ($1.3 million at KEESEP) has come around horses in all four of his victories. But his wide-and-driving tactics, combined with his propensity for dawdling at the break, could work against him in a 20-horse Derby.

Even though the two are built differently, consider a comparison to Essential Quality, another 'Rising Star' gray who was favored in the 2021 Derby and also ridden by Saez.

The juvenile champ went into the Derby undefeated after similarly making big, outside moves. Like Tapit Trice, Essential Quality's final prep was the Blue Grass, and it, too, featured a demanding stretch duel through the previously fastest Blue Grass final eighth in the new-dirt era (:12.53).

In the Derby, Essential Quality got off slowly, then Saez kept him four wide on both turns in an effort to avoid getting jammed inside. The colt rallied, but his fourth-place try lacked the spark of previous tries. The tough last prep didn't help him, and the lost ground definitely hurt him. Essential Quality skipped the GI Preakness. S., then won the GI Belmont S., GII Jim Dandy S. and GI Travers S. in succession.

Regardless of whether you think that sort history will repeat with Tapit Trice, you at least have to factor in those tactical similarities when assessing whether or not banking on a closer who gives himself so much extra work to do is a sound bet in a crowded, chaotic race like the Derby.

Tapit Trice | Coady

6) SKINNER (c, Curlin-Winding Way, by Malibu Moon) O-C R K Stable; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-John Shirreffs. Sales history: $40,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $510,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-0-3, $216,300. Last start: 3rd GI Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Skinner still needs two defections to make the qualifying cut. But I can see him emerging as a “wiseguy” horse at over 30-1 if he gets in.
To arrive at that conclusion, you have to buy into the benefits of the patient, confidence-building training methodology of John Shirreffs, and basically put a line through Skinner's uninspiring race results at age two.

Instead, focus on his progression at age three, which includes a mile maiden win followed by a pair of thirds over increasing distances behind No. 1-ranked Practical Move, the latter punctuated by a purposeful, three-furlong late kick.

All three efforts generated strong Beyers (95-94-99) that leave room for improvement. There's also the been-there-done that factor, based on John Shirreffs's 50-1 Derby upset with Giacomo in 2005, and jockey Victor Espinoza's three Derby wins with War Emblem (2002), California Chrome (2014) and American Pharoah (2015).

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projected to control the tempo in the GII Louisiana Derby, and he did just that, leading at every call through very moderate fractions (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and light pressure. The effort earned a 95 Beyer, a decent number despite the 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles being the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs.

Still, the win represents capable advancement through only 10 weeks of racing experience, and the overall trend for the undefeated Kingsbarns shows no regression (74-85-95 Beyers). Beyond what he's shown on paper, this is a no-nonsense colt who goes about his business without drama, and he's already handled shipping to and racing over three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds).

Only two horses have won the Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby: Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924.

8) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate is a glass half empty/half full proposition. Winless since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., his Beyers share a similar in-decline pattern over three races as Forte's (95-90-86), and his no-impact third in the Arkansas Derby doesn't supply much next-race momentum.
Yet this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer, and he gives the impression of a contender who should be finishing better than his running lines suggest.

Jockey John Velazquez said three months ago that Reincarnate was “still learning how to run” and tended to wait on other horses once he made the lead. His speed-centric style should give him the advantage of being forwardly placed and potentially ahead of trip trouble in the Derby, but you'd better hold out for a sizable mutuel before banking on that investment.

9) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 46.

All that 'TDN Rising Star' Disarm had to do in Saturday's GIII Lexington S. was run third to secure the six qualifying points that would put him into the Derby, and jockey Jose Ortiz made sure the colt did just that. Unless it was obvious this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred was going to blow by the field under his own power, everyone knew going into the race there would be no sense in asking Disarm for too strenuous an effort in the interest of keeping him fresh for May 6.

Disarm broke okay then was briefly squeezed back entering the first turn. The momentum loss wasn't serious, and he took up the chase seventh onto the backstretch, incrementally edging his way toward the top by the time the field hit the far turn.

Disarm responded when asked for a test-drive spurt of energy that propelled him to third at the top of the lane. But Ortiz realized he wasn't going to catch the dueling duo up front (especially with Keeneland's short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles ending at the sixteenth pole), so he wisely kept Disarm to task just enough win the “race within the race,” securing show by three-quarters of a length.

No wins at age three and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles aren't ideal. But those circumstances were dictated by Disarm having been out of action between August and February. A bet on him in the Derby is essentially a wager that his Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) bloodlines are going to put him over the top at 10 furlongs.

10) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox has secured the services of jockey Flavien Prat to ride Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) in the Derby. Prat, currently tops in the nation with 15 graded stakes wins in 2023, had piloted both Angel of Empire and No. 7-ranked Kingsbarns in their respective final preps.

Prat has ridden in five Derbies and finished in the money four times. In 2019 he rode Country House, who was declared the 65-1 winner via disqualification of Maximum Security. Prat was also third at 40-1 with Battle of Midway in 2017, second with Hot Rod Charlie at 5-1 in 2021, and third with Zandon at 6-1 in 2022.

Angel of Empire is 4-for-6 lifetime and at his best when given front-end targets to track down. Although his GII Risen Star S. win (89 Beyer) could be attributed him benefitting from a pace meltdown, this colt's Oaklawn score (94 Beyer) was noticeably more assertive, with this Pennsylvania-bred decisively overpowering the pacemaker.

Angel of Empire | Coady

11) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP), the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, is 4-for-8 closer/stalker who rates highly in terms of versatility and adaptability.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, Two Phil's broke alertly, rated kindly, then was content to be parked outside while sixth down the backstretch. He gathered momentum four deep through the far turn, then shadowed the favorite as the two jointly accosted the pacemaker at the head of the stretch. Two Phil's deftly shrugged off the fave, then chugged for the wire under his own power, with no one seriously challenging.

But this son of Hard Spun does own a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds over a sloppy, sealed Churchill dirt track in the Oct. 30 GIII Street Sense S., which could mean his connections will be doing a rain dance come Derby week.

Two Phil's | Coady

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage, who celebrates a birthday Apr. 18, is still without a committed Derby rider as of this writing. This son of Good Magic popped with an encouraging second in the Florida Derby, launching a big, far-turn bid, repulsing a stern stretch drive from the eventual third-place horse, but still being no match for the vastly more experienced winner Forte.

The conundrum facing Derby bettors centers on whether that 94-Beyer improvement represents the ceiling for Mage or if it is just a sneak preview of a higher phase of his development.

Mage's company lines from his Jan. 28 MSW win at Gulfstream got a boost over the weekend. The runner- up in that race, Bourbon Resolve (Hard Spun) came back to win a MSW route at Keeneland as the favorite.

The fourth-place finisher, Perform (Good Magic), who had already won his subsequent start at 7-10 odds at Tampa back on Mar. 11, won again at Laurel, capturing the Federico Tesio S. by a head at 10-1 odds.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Lord Miles
Lord Miles (Curlin) broke his maiden by 5 ¾ lengths sprinting at Gulfstream. Then he ran third in the one-turn-mile Mucho Macho Man S., beaten only three-quarters of a length. Stretched out to two turns to take advantage of his stout, female-family bloodlines (A.P. Indy, Seeking the Gold), Lord Miles then drew the rail in both the GIII Holy Bull S. and the Tampa Bay Derby, encountering trouble at the start on both occasions while sixth and fifth. He was bumped at the break in the Wood Memorial too, but overcame it to force the issue, drop back, then re-rally to charge home to a $120 victory in a roughly ridden, three-way stretch fight.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn)
When Derma Sotogake (Jpn) wired the G2 UAE Derby, it marked the first group winner for Mind Your Biscuits, the Grade I and Group 1-winning sprinter from five or six years back whose last stateside triumph was a successful stretch-out to nine furlongs in the 2018 GIII Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling orchestrated a comfortable, 5 1?2-length score in that 1 3/16-miles Meydan stakes, leading home a Japan-based 1-2-3-4 finish. Since 2000, 12 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby, and the best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try). But times are changing, as Japanese horses are increasingly stamping themselves as worthy global competitors at racing's top levels. Getting too mired in past results might be a mistake in prognosticating how Derma Sotogake will fare in this year's edition.

15) Rocket Can
After Rocket Can (Into Mischief) ran a lackluster fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, trainer Bill Mott surmised that this $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray has the ability to do better, but “he's just not quite giving it all” yet. A bullet half-mile over the Churchill strip in :46.60 (1/34) last Thursday might be a step toward bringing about an attitude adjustment, but Rocket Can is generally a sharp work horse anyway, having routinely posted bullets at Payson Park over the winter. He has five route races leading up to the Derby, and he earned style points in most of them as a punch-above-his-weight type of stalker. But the poorest try among them was over nine furlongs at Oaklawn, leading to realistic concerns about whether 10 furlongs will be within his scope. Churchill does seem to be Rocket Can's preferred surface. He broke his maiden there back on Oct. 30 and was second, beaten just a half-length, in a Nov. 26 allowance.

16) Sun Thunder
Trainer Kenny McPeek described Sun Thunder as a Derby “fringe horse” in a Daily Racing Form interview last week, and that label fits. This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was fourth, 6 ½ lengths off Tapit Trice in the Blue Grass S. He still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but he's run second, fourth (twice), and fifth in graded stakes against decent company through a winter/spring campaign. He is going to need help both pace-wise and trip-wise in the Derby while also having to find at least another 14 or 15 points on the Beyer scale to be in it to win it (he's twice maxxed out at 89).

17) Jace's Road
Prior to last Saturday, Jace's Road barely made the qualifying cutoff. But Disarm's six-points third in the Lexington S. knocked him back onto the also-eligible list. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, this colt ran a non-threatening third in the Louisiana Derby, and the best race on his résumé is still the 90-Beyer Dec. 26 wiring of the Gun Runner S. Jace's Road's status as an early 'TDN Rising Star' whose form has taken a hit reminds me a little bit of fellow Brad Cox trainee Mandaloun, who was also a 'Rising Star' and had a subpar final prep in the 2021 Louisiana Derby. Mandaloun reawakened with a 26-1 second in the Kentucky Derby, then subsequently was upgraded to the win because of the still-under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit.

18) Confidence Game
Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., registered a 94-Beyer win by getting third run at wilting leaders. This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt was initially slated for one more prep, but in March trainer Keith Desormeaux said it took Confidence Game “a little longer than usual to recover.” There was speculation he'd enter this past Saturday's Lexington S., but he instead breezed a mile from the gate on Friday in 1:38.20 (1/1). Now Confidence Game will head to the Derby off a 70-day layoff and never having run beyond 1 1/16 miles. Since 1929 (the advent of complete records), the longest winning layoff for a regularly scheduled Derby in May was 42 days, equaled by Needles (1956) and Animal Kingdom (2011).

19) Continuar (Jpn)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) was third and beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby. In their three common races, Derma Sotogake now has two wins over Continuar (the other was by a nose in a Nov. 6 handicap at Hanshin). Derma Sotogake was also third ahead of Continuar (fifth) in the G3 Saudi Derby. This ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling's most recent victory was in the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. Stateside fans will recall his sire, Drefong, as the Bob Baffert-trained champion sprinter in 2016.

20) Wild On Ice
Every Derby needs a massive, small-circuit-based longshot as a rooting interest, and Wild On Ice (Tapizar) fits the bill this year. The 35-1 winner of the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico has 60-year-old jockey Ken Tohill poised to become the oldest rider ever to compete in the Kentucky Derby. In the Sunland Derby, this Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter stalked two front-running favorites who had shipped in from Santa Anita, and when the invaders dueled themselves into defeat, Wild On Ice opportunistically picked up the pieces for a 77-Beyer, 1 ¼-length score.

Note: Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was ranked at No. 11 here last week but has now dropped to the 25th spot in qualifying points. Because of his diminished chances at making it into the main body of the race, he got relegated out of the TDN Top 20. Two horses who are currently inside the qualifying cut–Raise Cain (Violence) and Blazing Sevens (Good Magic)–are also not listed in this week's write-up.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: The Waiting is the Hardest Part appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

TDN Derby Top 12: Final Fireworks Before the Caravan Rolls On

We're approaching the edge of the GI Kentucky Derby abyss. Three final 100-points prep races Saturday, followed by four weeks of microscopic analysis and animated speculation. Bring it on!

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte has made it through his two-race prep campaign still perched atop the Top 12. But it's now an open question as to how strong his grip is, considering the scare he gave backers at 3-10 odds when flying home with a belated rush to nail the GI Curlin Florida Derby by a length.

What we saw was an athlete so far ahead of his peers, that, even though he was tactically disavdantaged by leaving himself so much work to do, Forte was able to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat without fully extending himself. A few desperate moments for sure, but no true panic.

Still, the not-fully-cranked Florida Derby win exposed vulnerabilities. Forte registered a 100 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but he regressed to a 98 when winning the GII Fountain of Youth S. That number dipped again, to 95, in the Florida Derby. If you're an improving divisional champion and formidbale Derby favorite, those Beyers should be going in the opposite direction.

Forte is a stalker at his best and a very capable closer from farther back when circumstances dictate. But the Derby has not recently been kind to horses who make sustained far-turn moves. In eight of the last nine Derbies, the first horse under the wire has raced either on the lead or just off it. Forte will be up against the grain of that winning profile in 4 1/2 weeks.

Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., said he had to resort to Plan B when Forte couldn't clear the field into the first turn in the Florida Derby like he thought he would. Ortiz had to urge the champ before settling into a more rhythmic beat down the backstretch.

Forte edged up incrementally, but still looked beaten at the five-sixteenths pole. He hesitated momentarily before responding nimbly to Ortiz's hand commands off the turn, and it took mild left-handed encouragement and the length of the stretch to reel in his target in measured fashion.

Yet Forte finished with his ears pricked after making the lead in the final few jumps to the wire, a subtle, positive sign that he can handle more.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by AfleetAlex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Practical Move owns the two fastest final times among the 16 points-earning Derby qualifying stakes run at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23. He ran 1:41.65 when winning the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 when he tallied in the GII San Felipe S. For perspective, no other horses in that series of stakes have clocked below 1:43.06.

Based on how impressively this Tim Yakteen trainee orchestrated that San Felipe score, Practical Move seems well equipped to handle a stretch-out to nine furlongs and beyond.

Inside runs have evolved as the strong suit for this son of Practical Joke, who has enough tactical speed to stay in touch with brisk paces and enough late-race oomph to see his jobs through.

Should he win Saturday's GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby while putting up a second consecutive triple-digit Beyer, Practical Move would head to Louisville with a touch of swagger–and maybe enough gravitas to challenge Forte for favoritism.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

Tapit Trice will headline the field when entries are drawn Wednesday for the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. This Todd Pletcher-trained gray is on a roll with three straight victories following a very useful third in his Nov. 6 debut.

This colt himself probably doesn't need much shoring up in terms of confidence. But bettors leaning toward backing this son of Tapit in the Kentucky Derby are going to want more assurance he can get out of the gate capably.

Tapit Trice has been lethargic off the mark in all four lifetime starts. Yet his raw talent, assertive nature, and ability to reliably fire down the lane have been enough to overcome any self-imposed disadvantages so far.

The Kentucky Derby is going to be different. The multiple waves of attackers will definitely not be of the lower-caliber variety like those Tapit Trice manhandled in the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. The desperate image of jockey Luis Saez imploring Tapit Trice for run at multiple points in that race still resonates, even though the result was a win.

These lead-in stakes to the Derby are called “preps” for a reason. Tapit Trice is safely 11th with 50 points on the Derby leaderboard.

Still, a Blue Grass victory with a more adept start would go a long way toward solidifying his status as a major threat in Louisville.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–BeyondGrace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Geaux Rocket Ride, celebrating his third birthday Apr. 4, will enter Saturday's Santa Anita Derby stretching out from a 92-Beyer sprint debut win and a very encouraging 96-Beyer, pace-pressing second in the 1 1/16-miles San Felipe S.

Trainer Richard Mandella told Daily Racing From last week this son of Candy Ride must either win or “have a good reason for not winning” to merit an attempt in the Kentucky Derby.

That pragmatic approach underscores why the Hall of Fame conditioner rarely makes the trip to Louisville unless he's confident he has a colt with a realistic shot.

Should he win Saturday, Geaux Rocket Ride will head to Kentucky with a perfect 3-for-3 record. Comparisons to recent 3-for-3 Derby winners Justify (2018) and Big Brown (2008) would ensue. Who knows? Those lofty appraisals just might be warranted.

5) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN RisingStar'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

One metric certain to percolate over the next month is trainer Steve Asmussen's 0-for-24 record in the Derby, a vexing statistical shadow that the Hall-of-Fame conditioner has publicly dealt with in good humor as that number has edged upward over the past several seasons.

Objectively though, his record has to be considered skewed by the large number of “just take a shot” Derby starters Asmussen has saddled over the decades.

When you drill down the list to Asmussen's best-intended Derby entrants, none of them have ever been off the board. Curlin (third in 2007) and Gun Runner (third in 2016) later blossomed spectacularly despite not peaking on the first Saturday in May. And last year's Derby fave, Epicenter, looked home free before an 80-1 shot relegated him to second in the final jumps.

This handsome, sturdy son of Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) won't be a top-tier betting choice. He closed at 33-1 in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager last Saturday.

But look out for this 'TDN Rising Star' and Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred, who has put together two better-than-they-look routes since stretching out off an August layoff. Both off-the-pace efforts were against the biases of speed-favoring tracks.

Disarm closed for second in a Feb. 19 Oaklawn allowance behind a wire-to-wire winner on an afternoon when horses racing on the lead or just off it won seven of nine races. And he was second (with minor trip trouble) in the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby when trying to pull back another frontrunner who set a slow tempo on a day when 10 forwardly placed horses scored in 11 dirt races at Fair Grounds.

6) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

After a 94-Beyer win in the GI Arkansas Derby, Angel of Empire rates as the only Top 12 contender with two wins at nine furlongs.

Since starting this Pennsylvania-bred's career at Horseshoe Indianapolis last summer, trainer Brad Cox has brought along this son of 2017 Arkansas Derby winner Classic Empire in patient fashion, all the way praising Angel of Empire's unruffled demeanor and keen mind.

“He's not blessed with a tremendous amount of speed,” Cox said Sunday at Oaklawn. “He just kind of breaks. And he's not void of speed, but he kind of finds his way and they get away from him a little bit. But he settles. He's a very smart horse.”

While Angel of Empire's late-run win in the GII Risen Star S. on Feb. 18 was aided by a pace meltdown, his no-nonsense score in the Arkansas Derby resonated more along the lines of him purposefully cracking the leader while blowing by the two favorites. A nicely torqued far-turn bid put him over the top at the quarter pole, then he freewheeled into another gear that didn't suggest this colt was scraping bottom, stamina-wise.

It's only a small sample of six races, but Angel of Empire's final furlong at Oaklawn (:12.12) is the fastest so far among the 1 1/8-miles preps in 2022-23. He also closed into the second-fastest final furlong (:12.95) in the Risen Star.

7) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters)O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

The company lines for Two Phil's, the 101-Beyer winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, upticked over the weekend when two horses who beat him in recent months–Angel of Empire and Forte–both won Grade I stakes.

If this Larry Rivelli trainee is being molded to follow the career path of his sire, Hard Spun, that would be a worthy aspiration. Hard Spun also won the version of Turfway's premier stakes in 2007 (when the Jeff Ruby was known as the GII Lane's End S. and run over Polytrack). That win vaulted Hard Spun to 2-3-4 finishes in the three Triple Crown races and a second-place try later that season in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

Hard Spun carved out a reputation as a reliable, determined runner who could handle any type of distance or surface. Two Phil's, with wins both sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop, and now Tapeta, is similarly evolving as a colt who goes out and executes, no matter what assignment he is tasked with. He's an overachiever who could make an outsized impact in the Derby.

8) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage is an eye-catching chestnut, but he sparks interest as a Kentucky Derby “dark horse” after his last-to-first slingshot move on the far turn of the Florida Derby. The only foe capable of running him down was the vastly more experienced divisional kingpin, Forte.

Mage broke toward the back and was slow to settle on the first turn, eventually dropping out last. Jockey Luis Saez didn't rush him, and instead let Mage find his stride, coaxing the colt to uncoil 4 1/2 furlongs out.

A commanding burst of acceleration in the five path gave Mage an unexpected far-turn jump on Forte, who had yet to ramp up into a higher gear. That big move might have been a tad premature, but it propelled Mage to the lead at the head of the homestretch. And once he hit the front he confidently repulsed a long drive from another better-seasoned colt, the third-place finisher Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief). Mage yielded to the more powerful Forte in the final strides, but held second without quitting.

“He might have gotten tired but, remember, it's still his third race,” said assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado, Jr. “How many races did it take for Forte to get to the level he is?”

9) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns, who wired the GII Louisiana Derby in his most recent start, got pounded to 11-1 second favoritism in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager that closed last Saturday.

Although the prospect of an undefeated colt is always tantalizing, that mutuel seems underlaid with respect to what price Kingsbarns will actually be on Derby day.

The plot for this Uncle Mo colt also thickened over the weekend in terms of who will ride him in the Derby. With the win by Angel of Empire in the Arkansas Derby, jockey Flavien Prat now has potentially competing calls aboard last-race winners Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire and Geaux Rocket Ride.

10) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Philip Steinberg (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: 2nd in GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

It was a nice bit of value handicapping if you locked in 130-1 odds on the vastly overlooked Slip Mahoney in Pool 6 of the Derby future wager that closed Apr. 1.

This Arrogate colt out of an A.P. Indy mare is bred to run all day. He exits a dismal trip when second and closing with a big rush over a muddy track in the GIII Gotham S., and is likely going to be the favorite or second choice in the GII Wood Memorial S. this Saturday (entries Wednesday). Should he run big at Aqueduct, that juicy futures ticket could represent roughly five to seven times his starting price come Derby day.

This $150,000 KEESEP colt has only won once, but Slip Mahoney's first two losses at the MSW level came at the expense of No. 3-ranked Tapit Trice and the formerly Top 12-ranked Litigate (Blame), who subsequently won the GIII Davis S. at Tampa, but is now off the Derby trail.

Note that the Gotham (and Slip Mahoney) got a boost this past Saturday when the fourth-place finisher out of that one-turn mile, Eyeing Clover (Lookin At Lucky), came back to win Oaklawn's $200,000 Hot Springs S.

11) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $126,100. Last Start: 1st in GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct Feb. 11. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Hit Show, a Candy Ride (Arg) colt who won't technically turn three until three days after the Derby, has Saturday's Wood Memorial circled as his chance to leapfrog into Derby relevancy from his current 27th spot on the qualifying list.

A homebred for Gary and Mary West, Hit Show has already won over nine furlongs, having scored in the GII Withers. S. at Aqueduct back on Feb. 11. He made a rail run to gradually grind down the leader with incremental, focused gain. No one was firing at him in the stretch, so he was able to pad his lead inside the final furlong to open up by 5 1/2 lengths at the wire.

Coming off an eight-week layoff, he'll spar for favoritism in the Wood with fellow Brad Cox stablemate Slip Mahoney while trying to add to an ascending Beyer pattern of 60-71-82-91 from four lifetime starts.

12) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy)O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the
GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate had a no-excuse stalking trip in the Arkansas Derby, forcing the issue on the front end. He was second and bearing down on a sacrificial speedster, but Angel of Empire blasted off to his outside turning for home and this colt never mustered any true response to match that winning move. Reincarnate held on for third.

Right now he's ranked 13th for eligibility with 45 qualifying points. Expectations were high going into the Arkansas Derby because Reincarnate had persevered through a difficult trip when third in the GII Rebel S., and he figured to be rounding into the type of Derby contender who might be dangerous because of his lead-seeking tendencies and long, strong stride.

This $775,000 KEESEP grad has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer. But his most promising effort (a 95-Beyer GIII Sham S. win back on Jan. 8) is now three months in the rearview mirror. A turnaround is not out of the question, but Reincarnate must aim for several notches of improvement without the benefit of positive last-race momentum.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Final Fireworks Before the Caravan Rolls On appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

TDN Derby Top 12: The Real Running Starts Now

We've taken the plunge into the deeper end of the prep pool for the GI Kentucky Derby. Five nine-furlong stakes each awarding 100 qualifying points are scheduled over the next two Saturdays, after which this list will expand to the Top 20.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 90.

The further 'TDN Rising Star' and 2-year-old champ Forte goes in his sophomore campaign, the more favorably he compares to Nyquist, who was the last winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile (and only the second Juvenile winner ever) to score in the Kentucky Derby. Each was put on a two-prep path at age three, consisting of an early March stakes victory followed by a try in the GI Florida Derby.

Where they differ, though, is in the level of difficulty of their respective Florida Derbies. In 2016, the connections of Nyquist took a gamble by shipping their colt cross-country from his California base to chase a $1-million Florida sales-grad bonus offered by Fasig-Tipton. Despite being the undefeated 2-year-old champ, the 6-5 Nyquist wasn't even favored in the Florida Derby (Mohaymen was at 4-5). But Nyquist wired the field commandingly, cementing favoritism in Louisville.

Forte, by contrast, will race over a Gulfstream surface over which he's already won emphatically, and he will be getting a considerable break in terms of competition. The draw for Saturday's Florida Derby landed him in post 11, but none of the 11 horses entered against him have ever been ranked in TDN's Top 12, and only one has ever won a stakes.

Beyond the obstacle of an outer post in a large field, the race, on paper at least, gives off a “damned if he does, damned if he doesn't” vibe that the champ will be up against.

If Forte trounces the field, it'll be reasoned he was supposed to beat up on such an overmatched crew based on his established gravitas as the divisional kingpin. The tall, lanky stalker has pasted nearly all comers over a six-race career that dates to last May 27 and includes only one forgivable loss in a Saratoga sprint stakes. None of the visual takeaways of his stretch runs offer evidence that he won't be able to handle pressure while negotiating longer distances.

If Forte runs well but narrowly loses, the result will likely elicit a positive-leaning connotation, along the lines that he wasn't fully cranked for the effort with his main goal being four weeks out.

But if Forte finishes off the board with no excuse? Yikes. He'll suddenly be perceived as vulnerable for the first time and the proverbial barn door will be knocked off its hinges by the crush of contenders rushing in to fill the Derby void.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

They don't drape a blanket of roses atop your shoulders on the first Saturday in May for looking like the most improved colt on the Derby contenders list at the end of March. But if they did, Practical Move would be this year's ideal fit.

This son of Practical Joke's progression toward the Apr. 8 GI Santa Anita Derby gives the impression of an ocean wave that did not at first appear menacing when in the distance, but now that it's nearing a crest, look out.

This Tim Yakteen trainee started five times in a four-month span at age two and his form in those races might have been shaded by running into some fairly accomplished foes while encountering repeated trip trouble.

A 10-1 upset in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity closed out this robust-framed colt's juvenile campaign. But Practical Move opened eyes with a 12-point Beyer jump when winning the GII San Felipe S. Mar. 4, uncorking a professional inside run despite enduring early bumping, a rank horse on the clubhouse turn, and a momentum stall on the far bend while jockey Ramon Vazquez patiently waited for an opening.

If you want a Derby horse who rates as “flashy,” look elsewhere. But if you lean toward a level-headed prospect who is quick enough to prowl behind strong fractions while having enough stamina to stick around late, Practical Move just might be your type.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW,4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was back on the Palm Beach Downs work tab Friday, breezing a half-mile in :49.82 (11/31) nearly two weeks after closing with a desperate rush to win the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (88 Beyer).

From several perspectives–his dawdling break, the questionable quality of the competition, the four-point Beyer regression off his previous win–the Tampa excursion was not an artistic triumph for Tapit Trice.

Yet considering that this colt overcame self-inflicted trip adversity and closed capably through a final sixteenth clocked in an impressive :6.14, Tapit Trice remains poised to put forth a more polished version of the athletic prowess he displayed in his first three career races. That chance will come in his final Derby tune-up, the Apr. 8 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Only one horse has ever parlayed wins in both the Tampa and Kentucky Derbies–Street Sense in 2007. Street Sense, like Tapit Trice is being pointed to do, also attempted the Blue Grass S. in the interim. He was second, losing by a nose in a four-horse photo.

With Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) never firing when sixth as the beaten 3-2 favorite in this past Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby, it appears that Tapit Trice is now the best Kentucky Derby shot for jockey Luis Saez.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

The GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby is shaping up as a showdown between the Nos. 2 and 4 headliners on this list. While Practical Move brings experience, this son of Candy Ride looms as a speed-centric threat who could have a decided advantage in a short field if the race comes up light on entries.

Geaux Rocket Ride was narrowly favored in the betting for the GII San Felipe S. and he gamely forced the issue on the front end of a high-tempo pace yet still managed to stay on determinedly in the final furlong to hold second even when it was clear that Practical Move had him beat.

In just two lifetime starts, Geaux Rocket Ride has paired 92 and 96 Beyers, and his transition out of a MSW sprint wiring to an off-Lasix stakes route was about as smooth as his connections could have hoped for. Note that the second- and fourth-place runners out of his Jan. 29 victory both came back to win their next starts, lending credibility to that sizzling debut.

Geaux Rocket Ride worked six furlongs in 1:13 flat Sunday at Santa Anita (2/6), after which his Hall-of-Fame trainer, Richard Mandella, quipped, “The rockets are ready to fire.”

5) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm returns to the Top 12 off his runner-up try in the Louisiana Derby and I'm taking an ambitious gamble by leapfrogging him all the way up to No. 5 considering this colt hasn't won a race in nearly nine months.

Last summer, trainer Steve Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy.”

But Asmussen expressed faith that this son of Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) would “stretch out beautifully” over time. Unfortunately, that didn't happen during his juvenile season, because after a blowout MSW win at the Spa over seven furlongs, Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons. After a second-place effort going a mile in an Oaklawn allowance Feb. 19 for his 2023 debut, he resurfaced at Fair Grounds Saturday.

Trying to chase a lone-speed pacemaker getting away with soft splits, Disarm was at a tactical disadvantage. His trip was further compromised by being caught behind the heels of a stablemate for most of his inside journey, and his stride stalled at several points during the race. Yet he still closed with purpose and earned a 90 Beyer for the effort.

Being up against the grain of a speed-favoring track also hurt his chances in the Louisiana Derby. There were 11 dirt races on the Mar. 25 card at Fair Grounds. Four were won in wire-to-wire fashion, six were won by pace-pressers who raced just off the lead, and one was won by a mid-pack stalker. Closers like Disarm got completely shut out. He'll be a live sleeper at well over 20-1 in Louisville.

6) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (Ky); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the
GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate, a $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic, will bear the burden of favoritism in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, and deservedly so.

He's the controlling speed on paper and is exiting a difficult trip in the Feb. 25 GII Rebel S., in which he got bounced around at the break, advanced into contention, then had to check late. Still, he managed third (90 Beyer). Jockey John Velazquez rides back.

A big horse with a long stride, Reincarnate started his career with two turf tries (both seconds). He was then second in his dirt debut, and finally broke through in try number four at Del Mar Nov. 25, after which he took the Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., dueling all the way on the inside and earning a 95 Beyer at somewhat surprising 16-1 odds.

Reincarnate has never been off the board from six starts, all at a mile or longer, so the stamina base is there. The Arkansas Derby will offer a sharper picture of where this colt stands in terms of honing his chief tactical weapon, which is front-end force.

7) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun-Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Figuring out whether or not nine-furlong Tapeta form will translate to 10-furlong dirt success is a bit like trying to understand voodoo. But the 101-Beyer win by Two Phil's in Saturday's GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks stamps him as an intriguing mid-tier threat on the Derby totem pole, and he has growing appeal as a 4-for-8 closer/stalker whose strengths are versatility and adaptability.

This son of Hard Spun has taken a somewhat unconventional path to Derby relevancy, having started as a 2-year-old at Colonial and Canterbury before breaking through with a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds in the GIII Street Sense S. at Churchill, which came over a sealed and sloppy track.

After running second in the GII Lecomte S. and third in the GII Risen Star S., trainer Larry Rivelli took a risk by opting for a start over Tapeta at Turfway, over which Two Phil's had never raced.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, jockey Jareth Loveberry rated this colt three wide into the first turn, patiently kept him parked outside while sixth down the backstretch, then let Two Phil's unwind four deep through the far bend, always shadowing the move of the 1.7-1 fave Major Dude (Bolt d'Oro) before reeling in that rival without much of a fight in upper stretch.

True, no one else was firing down the lane to offer a fresh challenge. But Two Phil's finished up respectably under his own power, leaving the impression that he wasn't entirely sapped by the effort.

Two Phil's will train at Rivelli's Hawthorne-based stable, where he will remain under the radar until Derby day gets closer.

8) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (Ky); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

With the calendar on the cusp of flipping into April, Todd Pletcher has emerged as the deepest-stocked Derby trainer, with three colts ranked within the top eight on this list.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns is evolving into a no-nonsense frontrunner who knows his job and gets into gear without drama, having now handled the footing of three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds) and shipping to each track from Pletcher's winter training base at Palm Beach Downs without apparent difficulty.

This Uncle Mo colt was assigned a 95 Beyer for his Louisiana Derby wiring. The win represents a nice progression through only 10 weeks of racing experience. But peering more closely at his 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles does raise legitimate questions.

That final time is the slowest in four years since the Louisiana Derby got elongated from nine furlongs, and it's nearly a full second off the previous slowest clocking of 1:56.47. Granted, that's only a small sample. But also consider that Kingsbarns was virtually unchallenged through a tepid pace, and the speed-favoring track at Fair Grounds Mar. 25 definitely played to his running style. Both the pace pressure and the tempo will be ratcheted up considerably in the Kentucky Derby.

The Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby will have an indirect impact on Kingsbarns. Flavien Part, who rode this colt for the first time in New Orleans, has a competing call aboard Geaux Rocket Ride in that Santa Anita stakes, meaning he might have to choose between mounts at some point.

9) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 2nd GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

The presence of No. 1-ranked Forte isn't what re-routed Rocket Can from the Florida prep path to Saturday's Arkansas Derby. This Into Mischief gray is owned by North Little Rock's Frank Fletcher, who is seeking his first victory in Oaklawn's premier stakes, a win he covets dearly because of the local connection to his home-state track.

Trainer Bill Mott has no problem accommodating an Oaklawn try by shipping Rocket Can to Hot Springs, and in the grand scheme of things, evading the formidable Forte in the same-day Florida Derby does look like a wise move.

Since stretching out to two turns back on Oct. 30, Rocket Can has finished 1-2-1-2 in four consecutive 1 1/16-miles races, the latter two being Gulfstream stakes.

His route-race Beyers look a little light (78, 82, 82, 91) compared to other Derby aspirants, but this gray has resonated as a “better than what you see on paper” type of prospect, earning style points for reliably pouncing off the far turn and throwing himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns with an underdog flair.

Mott acknowledged after Rocket Can's second-place try behind Forte in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. that this colt got a little too wound up pre-race and was overly keen in the early stages of that race. Seeing how he acts in the post parade and during warmups will be crucial in assessing his chances Saturday.

10) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in
Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One has never won on dirt, hasn't hit the winner's circle in more than six months, and has never been fancied as the favorite in any of his seven lifetime races.

Yet here he is, one prep race from the Derby and pegged at a comparatively lofty No. 10 within the Top 12 while commanding a qualifying spot at No. 16 in the points standings for Derby eligibility. He closed at a respectable 24-1 in the latest version of the Derby Future Wager back on Mar. 12, which might end up representing lower odds than he'll be in the Derby itself on May 6.

The chief reason this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred is so well-regarded this deep into the season has everything to do with his potential upside at longer distances. By Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare and with a come-from-behind running style, Red Route One has twice splashed home second at Oaklawn this winter in graded stakes, and in all five of his 1 1/16-miles dirt races since October he's given the appearance that he's just starting to get uncoiled when the finish line is looming.

Red Route One has drawn post 10 for Saturday's Arkansas Derby.

11) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Philip Steinberg (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: 2nd in GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Slip Mahoney's stout Arrogate-over-A.P. Indy pedigree is likely to serve him well when this Brad Cox trainee stretches out to nine furlongs in the Apr. 8 GII Wood Memorial.

This $150,000 KEESEP colt was slow from the gate and second best with a big late rush from 13th behind a 7 1/2-length runaway winner in the muddy GIII Gotham S. back on Mar. 4.

That one-turn mile was Slip Mahoney's first go outside of the maiden ranks and he likely got more out of the experience than it looks on paper.

He breezed a half mile in :48.40 (2/89) Saturday over the Belmont training track with assistant trainer Dustin Dugas up, working in company with a stakes-placed filly.

“The work was great,” said Dugas. “Slip Mahoney was on the inside and it was a really good move from the both of them. They broke off well and galloped out in 1:01, so it was a good gallop out. I was happy with it and both came back really well. He didn't really require much encouraging.”

12) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game's next start remains up in the air as trainer Keith Desormeaux mulls options that include the Apr. 8 Blue Grass S. at nine furlongs, the GIII Lexington S. at 1 1/16 miles one week later, or simply training up to the Kentucky Derby.

This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride colt earned a 94 Beyer when winning the Rebel S. back on Feb. 25, benefitting from a comfortable, mid-pack trip behind two long-shot speedsters and two favorites who never fired.

Confidence Game, an efficient strider who responds to rousing from his rider, got third run at the tiring leaders off the final turn in the Rebel, then largely avoided a crush of inside traffic with a wide stretch bid that included some outward wandering late.

Although he has seven races of experience (five of them routes), this is a colt I'd like to see in action at nine furlongs before more emphatically getting behind his chances in the Derby.

If he goes straight to Louisville after having been idle for 10 weeks and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles, it would be a huge ask, especially considering that Desormeaux acknowledged Confidence Game “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his Rebel score.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: The Real Running Starts Now appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Vs. Everyone Else

Only one contender within the Top 12 was in action last week. But Sunday's news about 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo) being declared off the GI Kentucky Derby trail left a void within the top tier that widens the gap between the juvenile champ and a cast of aspirants aiming to define themselves at longer distances.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 90.

Forte is the kingpin as we edge toward the seven-week mark to the Derby. We would have to see a vibrantly unexpected stakes performance from some other contender(s) between now and Apr. 8–the last of the nine-furlong points preps–in order to trigger a significant shake-up atop the current rankings.

Strong challengers emerging from the pipeline aren't outside the realm of possibility–plenty of Derby winners bloom late. But with so many horses on the Derby trail light on overall experience, any big, unforeseen upsetter in a late-season prep would likely head to Louisville with the public having doubts about their true position in the pecking order. Conversely, even if Forte doesn't shine in his final prep, he will still be given a measure of respect by bettors based on his overall body of work.

This 'TDN Rising Star' has only one loss in six starts, and you have to go all the way back to last July to find it (fourth as the beaten fave in the GIII Sanford S. at Saratoga). Since then he's done nothing but win graded stakes, at seven furlongs (GI Hopeful S.) and three times over 1 1/16 miles, including the GI Breeders' Futurity S., GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and in his 3-year-old return, the GII Fountain of Youth S.

Forte's lanky athleticism, stalking prowess, and far-turn blast-off ability have been on full display in each of his two-turn races, and trainer Todd Pletcher is leaning toward the Apr. 1 GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream as Forte's final tightener.

One quirk, though: All three of Forte's route wins have come on tracks with short-stretch configurations that end at or just beyond the sixteenth pole. Will roughly an extra half a furlong in the home straight make any difference? Probably not based on the way Forte has authoritatively uncoiled through the lane. But a good chunk of the Top 12 contenders ranked beneath him are off-the-pace closers who figure to improve at nine and 10 furlongs, and that sort of multi-attack, firing-line stretch fight is something Forte has yet to encounter.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Practical Move's decisive win in the GII San Felipe S. (100 Beyer Speed Figure) was a huge coming-out party considering the race was his 3-year-old debut and his juvenile form was built around him inheriting a maiden win via DQ and a GII Los Alamitos Futurity score when this colt was a 10-1 outsider against four foes of dubious quality.

Apparently, I misread the tea leaves prior to the San Felipe. But now, looking at Practical Move's overall juvenile season, I can see a developmental arc that is more positive than I initially gave him credit for. (Yes, hindsight is the great friend of all Derby prognosticators.)

For starters, this son of Practical Joke packed in five starts in roughly a four-month span, which, although they did not produce breakthrough results at the time, should provide a stable foundation that will aid him in the long run.

He also ran into a combination of hot horses and bad trip luck–second behind the highly hyped 'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock (Arrogate) in his 24-1 debut; some bumping and rough-housing in starts two and three, and then being outgunned by one-turn specialist and subsequent Grade II stakes winner Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the seven-eighths GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar. Yet in none of his adversity-tinged defeats at age two was Practical Move worse than third.

Last week on “At the Races with Steve Byk,” trainer Tim Yakteen described him as a big, “very straightforward” colt who never gets discouraged.

“It's very likely that I'll come back with Practical Move in the [Apr. 8 GI] Santa Anita Derby,” Yakteen said. “He's run well on the track, and that will probably be the best scenario for us. But I didn't want to etch anything in stone and [instead I'll] leave myself the options. Because fortunately, there are a number of options that we can take advantage of. It's just a matter of how many weeks I want [between starts] and where I want him to be. But ideally, I'll run him out of his own stall.”

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

Did you come away with a “glass half full” or “glass half empty” vibe after watching 2-5 favorite Tapit Trice snatch victory from the jaws of defeat with a last-to-first run in the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby?

This son of Tapit's habitual slow-to-go style (fourth flat-footed break in as many races) almost cost him dearly. But the pace was fast and the competition was notches below what this 'TDN Rising Star' will encounter in Louisville, enabling him to pass every horse in the field of 12 with a nine-wide rush while encountering little serious resistance.

Yes, Tapit Trice got the job done by overcoming some self-created trip adversity. But the visual of jockey Luis Saez having to hustle and pump on Tapit Trice at multiple points in the race will linger when assessing his chances in the 20-horse Derby, where positioning is crucial. You don't necessarily have to be winging it on the front end, but the Kentucky Derby has been won by speed-centric, forwardly placed types in eight of the last nine years.

Tapit Trice's Tampa Derby grade rates as an “incomplete” in terms of overall progression. But this long-striding colt's first three races were so replete with eye-catching, positive attributes and an unruffled, confident demeanor that it doesn't make sense to dock his chances too severely because he didn't win a March prep with astounding dominance.

And hearing trainer Todd Pletcher say in the aftermath of the win that the colt will likely get a nine-furlong try in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. is certainly more reassuring than hearing that Tapit Trice would spend eight weeks training up to the Derby.

Speed-figure gurus might not be too enthused about the 88 Beyer (four-point regression) Tapit Trice posted, and that's a valid concern. But this colt hit his best stride through a closing sixteenth in :6.14, and that's the fastest final-half-furlong clocking from 16 Derby qualifying points stakes run at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

In just his second career start and first around two turns, Geaux Rocket Ride was narrowly favored in the betting for the San Felipe S., closing at 2.7-1 odds.

That respect on the tote board said a lot about this speed-oriented son of Candy Ride (Arg). But it also spoke volumes about the public's confidence in trainer Richard Mandella, who is known for his judicious approach with young horses.

Although Geaux Rocket Ride finished second, without question he turned in the best runner-up effort we've witnessed in any 2023 Derby prep. He forced the issue on the front end of a robust tempo yet still managed to finish with purpose behind the much more experienced Practical Move. That combination of early torque matched with still-developing staying power is an attribute you don't see often in second-time-starters.

Jim and Dana Bernhard, who in autumn took over as the new owners of Pin Oak Stud, confirmed in a Twitter post four days after the San Felipe that the Santa Anita Derby will be next for their top sophomore.

Since 1900, 25 horses have attempted to win the Derby off exactly three lifetime starts. Only three have won: Justify in 2018, Big Brown in 2008, and Regret in 1915. Beyond those three, only one of the remaining 22 managed to hit the board (Curlin, third in 2007).

5) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 2nd GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Rocket Can, an Into Mischief gray with six starts, turned the corner on Oct. 30 when first tasked with two-turn races. Yet both his trainer, Bill Mott, and jockey, Junior Alvarado, have acknowledged this colt still has some maturing to do.

Alvarado said Rocket Can got upset for unknown reasons in the post parade of the Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream prior to running a decent second, 4 1/2 lengths behind Forte.

Mott concurred in the post-race interview.

“He broke awfully sharp,” Mott said. “He was a little geared up in the post parade. He was a little more wound up than I actually like to see him. I was hoping he wouldn't get too excited, but he still looked like he ran his race.”

Rocket Can was credited with a 91 Beyer, which, in theory at least, turns down the heat on some of the criticism this colt faced for running back-to-back 82 Beyers and not advancing, numbers-wise, between a second-place try in a Nov. 26 allowance at Churchill and winning the GIII Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream Feb. 4.

But speed figures never tell the entire story. Rocket Can gave up real estate on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within striking distance of the leaders, and the stretch runs in all four of his two-turn races have been characteristically strong (two wins, two seconds, never shying from engagement).

6) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Although trainer Steve Asmussen said after Red Route One ran second in the GII Rebel S. that he was toying with the idea of stretching out his son of Gun Runner to 1 3/16 miles in the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby, owner Ron Winchell confirmed to TDN via text message Saturday that the nine-furlong Apr. 2 GI Arkansas Derby is the more likely landing spot.

Red Route One, who just turned three Mar. 12, has twice run second in Oaklawn prep stakes this season, earning his two best lifetime Beyers in the slop (87 then 92). His lone victory came back on Sept. 5 over the Kentucky Downs turf course.

Can a Derby contender who's never won on dirt still be considered a realistic threat in mid-March? In 2023, the answer appears to be yes, because anything unconventional seems to be a “go” these days on the Derby trail, whether it's race spacing getting stretched beyond historic norms or horses with just a couple of starts being regarded as adequately seasoned.

So you can take your pick among horses who've won over dirt but have just had two, three or four lifetime starts. Or you can try your luck (at far higher odds) with a deep closer like Red Route One, who has never tasted victory on dirt but whose fairly sturdy base of races includes seven lifetime starts, all at a mile or longer.

7) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee, by Bolt d'Oro out of an Uncle Mo mare, will target the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby off a 63-day layoff. According to DRF's Formulator, trainer Brad Cox over the last five years has won at a 23% clip (from 193 starts) with all layoff returnees between 60 and 70 days. His strike rate is also 23% (40 starts) when the filter is set to show the same layoff parameter for only his graded stakes starters.

For 3-year-olds coming back in the 60- to 70-day range at any class level, Cox's win rate is 20% (51 starts). The much narrower filter of 3-year-old 60- to 70-day layoff males in graded stakes dips to 1-for-9 (11%), and that lone winner was in a 2018 Grade III grass stakes at now-defunct Arlington.

This $200,000 KEESEP colt is an overland closer with a 3-for-4 record, and Cox has described this Grade II and III winner as being a light-on-his-feet type whose body language and stride suggest he can get 10 furlongs.

Instant Coffee's Beyers are a touch unpredictable (85-81-82-92 pattern), with that curious dip after his seven-furlong debut win at Saratoga being followed by a 10-point jump in his first sophomore start in New Orleans.

Still, Instant Coffee manages to finish most of his races by posing for a picture in the winner's circle, so he must be doing something right. His only defeat was five months ago against the eventual divisional champ, Forte.

8) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux told DRF.com last week that the upsetter of the Rebel S. is in “steady light training” at Fair Grounds while he mulls options for the colt's next start. The Arkansas Derby, Blue Grass S., and even just training straight up to the Derby are all under consideration for Confidence Game. That last option would mean a 10-week gulf between starts.

Desormeaux told DRF that it took Confidence Game “a little longer than usual to recover from that race,” noting that having to ship from cool weather in Hot Springs back to 80-degree days in New Orleans didn't help the post-race recovery process.

Confidence Game, an efficient-striding son of Candy Ride (Arg), sports a seven-race foundation that includes five routes.

The 94 Beyer he earned in the slop at Oaklawn was a 14-point leap off his previous effort, and Confidence Game capitalized by closing from mid-pack into a too-hot pace.

9) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $57,300. Last Start: 1st AOC at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 12. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Considering he's 2-for-2 and was well-regarded at the sales, Kingsbarns is an under-the-radar sort. Part of that perception has to do with his trainer, Todd Pletcher, having three other horses ranked within the current Top 12, including at the Nos. 1 and 4 spots with Forte and Tapit Trice.

This son of Uncle Mo (out of a Tapit mare) will attempt to parlay a Gulfstream MSW mile win and a Tampa allowance score over one mile and 40 yards into a points-garnering performance in the Louisiana Derby, which will likely be his only crack at a Derby qualifying stakes.

He's had the benefit of reeling in overly ambitious pacemakers in both his tries, but Kingsbarns looked very comfortable when covered up at the fence in his debut before slicing through with a capable late kick that belied his relative inexperience.

10) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: 1st in Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

The thinking with Litigate is that the long Fair Grounds stretch in the Louisiana Derby is going to play to his stalking strengths and his Blame (over a Mineshaft mare) pedigree.

This $370,000 KEESEP buy won at first asking sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, reeling in two horses inside the final furlong over what was arguably not his ideal distance. Additional real estate in the form of a Gulfstream one-turn mile Jan. 8 resulted in a second-place allowance try in which Litigate led between calls five-sixteenths out.

Start number three, the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa, was notable for Litigate being able to clear the field from post 10, responding to rating, then punching home with a far-turn bid during a driving rainstorm.

The Massachusetts-based partnership Centennial Farms has a decades-long track record of not rushing young prospects. The syndicate's teaming with trainer Todd Pletcher is relatively new, starting with Litigate himself.

Litigate does need to improve his Beyers (76-80-77) to be considered a true Derby contender. His company lines also have looked soft over time, with the horses from all three of his races running an aggregate 1-for-18 in next-out races.

He won the “race within the race” when slow from the gate and second best with a big late burst behind a 7 1/2-length winner in the GIII Gotham S., and he lost two of his MSW starts despite decent efforts behind No. 3-ranked Tapit Trice and No. 10-ranked Litigate.

Trainer Brad Cox said after the Gotham that the GII Wood Memorial Apr. 8 would be next.

This $150,000 KEESEP buy is one of four gray horses currently classified in the Top 12.

Since 2005, 36 consecutive grays/roans have gone to post and lost the Derby since the last gray, Giacomo, roared home at 50-1.

12) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (Ky); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate has never been off the board from six starts, all at a mile or longer.

His GIII Sham S. win (95 Beyer) back on Jan. 8 was a good example of his evolving force-the-issue tactics on the front end. A large-framed colt with a long stride, Reincarnate waited on horses, but dug in and fought back once company came calling.

Last time out, in the Feb. 25 Rebel S., this $775,000 KEESEP colt shipped to Oaklawn from his Southern California base and caught a sloppy, sealed track for the first time. Reincarnate got shuffled back at the break, advanced into contention mid-race, then lost momentum late when checking out of a tight spot. Still, he managed third (90 Beyer).

A return trip to Hot Springs for the Arkansas Derby looms as Reincarnate's likely next start.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Vs. Everyone Else appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post