Tag: Derby Top 12

TDN Sophomore Top 12: ‘Rising Stars’ Anchor Top Three Spots

You may have noticed a change in the title of this column, from “Derby Top 12” to “Sophomore Top 12.”

Churchill Downs, Inc., has barred trainer Bob Baffert from competing in the GI Kentucky Derby, and that left us in a quandary over how to assess the nation's best 3-year-old prospects.

It didn't seem right to dismiss the accomplishments of elite-level sophomores, regardless of whether they were eligible for the Derby or not. Nor did it seem proper to ignore the benchmarks their performances provide to help establish the overall pecking order.

So we're including Baffert's trainees in the Sophomore Top 12–along with horses from any other stable–so long as those horses are Triple Crown aspirants.

Once all the major preps have been run in April, we'll still expand the Top 12 to the Top 20 like we do each year.

And in the week leading up to each Triple Crown race, these rankings will again focus on race-specific, horse-by-horse analysis for the Derby, GI Preakness S., and GI Belmont S.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.

The 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos has plenty of sophomore prowess in his pedigree. Sire Nyquist won the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Damsire Bernardini took the 2006 Preakness. Grand-damsire A.P. Indy won the 1992 Belmont, and his sire, Seattle Slew, swept the 1977 Triple Crown. All three female-side of those sires were crowned 3-year-old champions, and the latter two were also voted Horse of the Year at age three.

Nysos won't be Derby-bound because of the ban imposed upon trainer Bob Baffert. But this colt will have other opportunities to tee it up against Grade I competition, with a possible Santa Anita Derby/Preakness combo looming on his calendar.

That schedule is pure speculation, because Baffert generally does not disclose advance stakes engagements for his horses. In the long run it might be futile to try and guess the projected paths of Baffert's top-tier sophomores. But right now in the dead of winter it's an interesting exercise considering the legitimate hype surrounding Nysos.

This nimble but powerful colt has now won at six, seven and eight furlongs by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96, 97 and 105.

Two other items stand out in Nysos's past performance block: 1) How did a colt this talented ever go off at 6-1 odds in his debut? 2) Given his apparent mental maturity, it's a bit of a surprise to see Nysos was a comparatively late May 8 foal.

2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

'TDN Rising Star' Muth had been expected to start as the favorite in Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, but trainer Bob Baffert wasn't satisfied with how a Feb. 18 workout at Santa Anita unfolded and declined to enter him.

Muth was clocked in :47.40 (10/128) while covering a half-mile “handily” to the inside of a workmate. But DRF.com's Steve Andersen reported that the move came during a time in morning training when another horse had been pulled up in the stretch with a fatal injury and the warning siren was blaring to alert other riders to pull up and get out of the way.

“He's not going to Arkansas,” Baffert told DRF. “He didn't get a proper work.”

Plan B was not disclosed.

Muth has already shipped cross-country and been scratched on the morning of a race, when Baffert backed the Good Magic colt out of the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga on Labor Day, citing a “salty” field and a desire to try two turns at a later date.

That secondary option turned out to be the GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita Oct. 7, in which Muth manhandled an overmatched field at 2-5 odds.

Muth then ran second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and started off his 3-year-old season with an assertive, 90-Beyer win in the GII San Vicente S. over seven furlongs.

3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

It can be hazardous to your bankroll to fall in love with deep closers in a 20-horse field and the list of Derby also-rans is littered with stout-hearted stayers who came up short because they either ran into traffic or ran out of real estate after circling wide to avoid trouble.

Speed-centric horses racing either on the front end or just off it have won eight of the last 10 Derbies, with Rich Strike in 2022 and Mage in 2023 the off-the-pace exceptions.

But it's difficult not to take a shine toward 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone after seeing this locomotive-like Gun Runner colt overcome both a slow pace and a sloppy, sealed racetrack when inhaling No. 4-ranked Track Phantom (Quality Road) in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds.

Equipped with blinkers and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione (both first-time changes), Sierra Leone got bet down to 5-2 favoritism off an 11-week break after running second in the GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct.

He settled mid-pack, then uncorked a prolonged far-turn rally during which Gaffalione sat chilly before setting down his colt in the nine path for the drive.

Sierra Leone had his work cut out for him while still four lengths behind the pacemaker at the eighth pole, but steadily eroded the gap between him and the hard-trying Track Phantom.

The margin got sliced to two lengths inside the sixteenth marker, and even though Sierra Leone lugged in a bit–a habit carried over from his first two races–within a few strides it was evident that Gaffalione had timed his move perfectly, reeling in his target 50 yards from the wire while Sierra Leone extended his powerful finishing pop into the gallop-out.

Next up is the Apr. 6 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-2-1, $365,000. Last start: 2nd in Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

Track Phantom's Feb. 17 birthday didn't end with a party in the Fair Grounds winner's circle. But his runner-up effort behind Sierra Leone in the Risen Star S. didn't diminish his reputation as a straightforward speed horse who is capable of outrunning rivals for the lead, dictating the tempo, and then refusing to fold in the stretch. He was neither tiring nor quitting. He simply got collared by an A-list closer.

“He ran a great race but ended up just being second best,” said jockey Joel Rosario. “He tries hard every time and keeps getting better.”

This $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road now has a foundation of six lifetime races, all at a mile or longer. In each of his last three two-turn starts, he has drawn either the outermost post (in fields of six and seven) or gate 11 of 12 (on Saturday). Yet Track Phantom has ably swatted back inside challengers by clearing them on the first turn.

With wins over the New Orleans track in both the Gun Runner S. and the GIII Lecomte S., plus his second-place finish over nine furlongs in the Risen Star, it's no surprise trainer Steve Asmussen has circled the Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles for Track Phantom's next start.

5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

Since the advent of the Eclipse Awards, no 2-year-old champion colt has ever lost his first race back at age three and then won the Kentucky Derby.

After running a punchless third at 1-5 odds in the GIII Holy Bull S., wearing a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May might now seem too tall an order for juvenile champ Fierceness, especially considering trainer Todd Pletcher's plan all along was to have just one other pre-Derby start.

But all is not lost in terms of Derby aspirations for this 'TDN Rising Star.'

For starters, we're now firmly entrenched in the “less is more” era of prepping 3-year-olds to run 10 furlongs and Fierceness could easily cycle back to being a hot commodity with a big nine-furlong effort in the Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby.

Fierceness, based on his five-race career arc, hasn't yet shown an ability to deliver back-to-back strong performances. Nor has he checked the “overcomes adversity” box.

But his two victories in his Saratoga debut and in the Breeders' Cup have both been delivered with enough of a “Wow!” factor to signal that this Repole Stable homebred has what it takes to assert himself at the top of the crop if he ever gets into a groove.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Dornoch hammered for $325,000 at KEESEP in 2022, a price that now looks like a bargain considering his older brother, Mage, at the time was an unknown colt four months away from winning his career debut and nine months away from soaring home first at 15-1 in the Kentucky Derby.

By way of comparison, four months after Mage's career-defining Derby victory, the next foal out of the mare Puca, a colt by McKinzie, sold for $1.2 million at the 2023 edition of KEESEP.

Trainer Danny Gargan has spent the better part of his winter at Palm Meadows trying to get Dornoch to maintain focus. Gargan doesn't want a repeat of the antics that Dornoch displayed when winning the Remsen S.

In that nine-furlong stakes, Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took mid-race pace pressure, repulsed fresh challengers on the far bend, then got to “goofing off” in the stretch according to Gargan, brushing the inside rail before re-surging to snatch back the lead from No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

Although Dornoch has raced on or near the front in all four of his races, Gargan said after the Remsen that a change in tactics might be a worthwhile experiment. He believes that by coming from a bit farther off the pace, Dornoch will see other horses and remain more mentally locked in on his task.

We'll find out in the GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 2.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

Maymun's one-mile allowance victory at 3-10 odds at Santa Anita didn't vault him any higher in these rankings. But the effort did maintain his perfect record while posing an open question about what this colt might do when tasked with tougher competition after being unveiled with a flourish in a 'TDN Rising Star' sprint romp back on Jan. 20.

Breaking from the rail in his second lifetime start Feb. 11, this son of Frosted brushed a foe at the break, then sideswiped stablemate and second-favorite Imagination (Into Mischief) when bearing out into the first turn.

Flavien Prat settled Maymun into a slower second-quarter split down the backstretch. The real running started three-eighths out when Imagination engaged Maymun from the outside and the pace ratcheted up into a more spirited cadence while the two Bob Baffert trainees peeled off from the pack.

Imagination (previous Beyers 70, 78, 78) clearly attained the lead on three distinct occasions from the quarter to the sixteenth poles while never quite putting away Maymun for good.

But Maymun clawed back a half-length deficit inside the final 100 yards, winning by a neck through a final eighth in :12.83 while 10 1/2 lengths clear of the three remaining stragglers.

Maymun's winning time of 1:36.65 equated to an 89 Beyer, a four-point haircut off his 93-Beyer debut.

8) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $52,200. Last start: WON Jan. 13 Gulfstream MSW.

Conquest Warrior, dubbed a 'TDN Rising Star' off an adversity-overcoming maiden win going a mile through traffic in his second lifetime race Jan. 13 at Gulfstream, will make his next start there for trainer Shug McGaughey in either an allowance/optional claimer at 1 1/8 miles Feb. 29 or in the Fountain of Youth S. at 1 1/16 miles two days later.

“Ideally, the allowance race goes and we get that next little step into him without quite going into the deep end,” Ernie Retamoza, the manager for owner Courtlandt Farms, told TDN's Steve Sherack last week. “But with the way that he ran and the way he's trained since, I think Shug feels like if the allowance doesn't go, we're sure not gonna sit around and wait on another one. We're gonna go ahead and get him going and see if he can take us there.”

The stout-framed $1-million KEESEP colt has breezed four times since his last start, including two “bullet” clockings at four and five furlongs at Payson Park.

“He's trained really well and came out of that race in great order,” Retamoza said. “He's had some [fast] workouts, really atypical of Shug's horses. Shug doesn't fire bullets all the time, but that colt kind of does. Hopefully, that's a good indicator of what kind of horse he is and where we're headed. Those good horses work fast, that's just the way it is.”

9) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-1-0, $475,600. Last start: 4th Nov. 3 GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.

This son of Into Mischief started his career in three sprints, and while his best races have been at seven furlongs and a one-turn mile, it's noteworthy that his dam's only two wins in Great Britain came over 1 1/2 miles and 1 3/4 miles.

This 'TDN Rising Star' was installed as the 6-5 morning line favorite for Saturday's Rebel S. at Oaklawn, and trainer Brad Cox is hoping the 1 1/16-miles distance will be a launch pad for Timberlake to earn Derby qualifying points in his sophomore debut.

Timberlake's fourth-place try as the 3-1 third choice in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile was essentially over before the first turn when he resisted efforts to settle and never fired when called upon for run.

But go two starts back in his past performances, and that emphatic sloppy-track pasting of a GI Champagne S. field that included eventual champ Fierceness could be the race that is the more useful benchmark for prognosticating Timberlake's future.

Florent Geroux won't be aboard on Saturday for the first time in Timberlake's five-race career. He's booked to ride Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming) for Cox in the $20-million G1 Saudi Cup. Christian Torres will pick up the mount.

10) LOCKED (c, Gun Runner–Luna Rosa, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Walmac Farm; B-Rosa Colasanti (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $425,000 yrl '22 KEESEP). Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-2, $608,400. Last start: 3rd Nov. 3 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

'TDN Rising Star' Locked was the beaten favorite when third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and his sophomore season was delayed when he had to miss the Feb. 10 GIII Davis S. at Tampa after spiking a fever.

But bettors haven't forgotten that this $425,000 KEESEP colt put up mid-90s Beyer numbers three times at age two, and his win in the Oct. 7 GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland was punctuated by Locked twice re-seizing the lead inside the eighth pole.

As such, he was installed as a 16-1 choice in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool that closed Sunday, the same price as 2-year-old champ and stablemate Fierceness.

Trainer Todd Pletcher plans to start Locked in the Fountain of Youth S., which could end up luring three Top 12 contenders.

11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Last fall, trainer Kenny McPeek started this Goldencents colt's career by running twice in sprints and three times within a 33-day span. He now believes Mystik Dan's future will be in longer races with more time between starts.

After Mystik Dan's eight-length, 101-Beyer GIII Southwest S. score, McPeek told the TDN Writers' Room podcast that, “This horse is really fast. He has been from the beginning. Initially, I ran him twice in sprint races and after I did that, I kind of regretted it a little bit because we had to retool him a little bit. He's so quick that you had to kind of re-teach him and he needed to learn how to go longer.”

McPeek explained that this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing made that learning process straightforward because of Mystik Dan's capacity to absorb and repeat what he has been schooled to do.

“This is the kind of mind that you need for these high-level races,” McPeek said.

After running up the score on a sealed, muddy track that he clearly relished, it remains to be seen whether Mystik Dan can repeat his gaudy Southwest performance on a dry surface going longer against a deeper field, with the Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby as his target.

12) SPEAK EASY (c, Constitution–Fun, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Siena Farm LLC & WinStar Farm LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $42,000. Last Start: WON Jan. 27 Gulfstream MSW.

In the last five years, trainer Todd Pletcher has started 185 firsters at odds of 8-1 or higher. Of the 11 who won, according to DRF's Formulator, Speak Easy, who earned a 100 Beyer, is the only one to have run a figure greater than 90. That means this Constitution colt gets serious consideration for this list, even if it is getting a touch too deep into the season to have Derby aspirations for sophomores who've only started once.

This WinStar Farm homebred who races in partnership with Siena Farm broke from the one post in his Jan. 27 Gulfstream debut, sluiced through a four-way early duel to latch on to the 3-2 favorite, then relentlessly ran down that rival in a seven-furlong clocking that was :01.08 seconds faster than older fillies and mares ran in a Grade II stakes later that afternoon.

“We had him going pretty well last summer and was getting close to a race when he had a minor setback, so we gave him some time,” Pletcher said after that win. “The fact that he had a pretty good foundation last summer I think helped in preparing him for his debut. He'd always trained really well, but I think that performance even exceeded our expectations.

“If we get the opportunity to run in an allowance race, that could be an option,” Pletcher continued. “I guess running as fast as he did, if he had to go into a stakes, I suppose you could make an argument for that as well.”

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TDN Derby Top 12: Ace On Top, Rest of Deck Gets a Good Reshuffling

As if ranking the contenders for the GI Kentucky Derby isn't enough of a challenge in and of itself, the crystal ball-gazing becomes even more hazy when you factor in the ban imposed by Churchill Downs, Inc., on trainees from Bob Baffert's stable (click here for a more detailed writeup on this subject).

Even though the official Derby qualifying points leaderboard omits those horses, TDN's Top 12 will continue to include them for the time being on the basis that 1) the situation could change; 2) the performances of those horses represent significant benchmarks in establishing the pecking order for everyone else, and 3) there is no point at this still-early stage of the Triple Crown campaign to dismiss the accomplishments of the nation's top colts, regardless of whether they end up in the Derby or not.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.

Undefeated kingpin Nysos (Nyquist) extended the already sizable gap back to his next closest competitors with a thorough and professional clock-cleaning of six overmatched rivals in Saturday's GIII Robert Lewis S. at Santa Anita. The effort stood out because it was delivered in a scintillating style that underscored both the colt's level of self-assurance and his athletic prowess.

This 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' from trainer Bob Baffert's barn has now scored at six, seven and eight furlongs, winning by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97 at age two prior to uncorking a wowza 105 for his sophomore debut.

The light-on-his-feet Nysos ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) glided under the wire by 7 ½ lengths. Flavien Prat could have nudged that margin into double digits had he not begun the gearing-down process more than a sixteenth of a mile before the finish.

After breaking a beat slowly then opting not to go into chase mode to reel in a breakaway pacemaker, Prat's only taxing tactical decision came on the far turn when he opted to slice Nysos to the inside of one rival then come around the other tiring two. A hustling hand ride between the five-sixteenths and eighth poles was all it took to elicit the desired gear without Nysos needing to demonstrate how much torque might remain in reserve.

“He stumbled a bit leaving there, but he was in a good spot,” Baffert said. “Prat rode him with a lot of confidence, he knows the horse well. I love the fact that he has speed and he proved he can do two turns. He has a great mind. He is a really good colt. You can just sit there and push the button at any time. It makes it so much easier for the riders, but I still get a little nervous.”

2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

With three wins and two seconds from five lifetime races and a classy, all-business style, Muth ($190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR) is in the top tier among the Bob Baffert's per-usual loaded stable of sophomores.

Oddly enough, this son of Good Magic's best race Beyer-wise (a 95 in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile) was his least visually impressive performance. Even with a Santa Anita home-track advantage and a no-excuse stalking trip, this 'TDN Rising Star' had to be driven hard in an unsuccessful attempt to match strides in upper stretch with eventual divisional champ Fierceness.

But Muth's co-lowest career Beyer of 90 in the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. is the opposite, with the effort seeming better to the eye than the speed figure it earned.

The San Vicente could turn out to be an extremely useful seven-furlong speed sharpener for Muth, who shadowed two early leaders before running up the score at will while ridden out under the wire.

That effort whets the appetite for another two-turn engagement. But since Baffert's style is generally not to disclose stakes engagements until at or just before entry time, we're left to guess-although we do know that preps at Santa Anita and Oaklawn have historically been his most-preferred options.

Prior to running second in the Breeders' Cup, Muth was already a winner over 1 1/16 miles against Grade I company. He scored in the Oct. 7 American Pharoah S. by forcing the issue from fourth, then tipping out to accost the leaders off the turn without needing much encouragement to wrest control of the race.

3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) is targeting the GII Risen Star S. for his 2023 debut. That nine-furlong New Orleans race will be the first of two projected Derby preps at age three for trainer Chad Brown, which would give this colt three straight 1 1/8 mile races prior to attempting 10 furlongs in Louisville

This FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper looked like the winner in the closing stages of the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct when he rallied seven wide against the teeth of a sealed-track speed bias. But Sierra Leone lugged in late and lost the lead to Dornoch (Good Magic), who prevailed by a nose.

That two-turn try was Sierra Leone's only other race after winning his one-turn-mile debut Nov. 4 at Aqueduct. After a slight bobble at the break, this colt settled next to last, overcame several minor momentum stalls on the backstretch and turn, swung five wide off the bend, then started to rally with authority. Despite twice shifting off the heels of rival runners, Sierra Leone was motoring late once he got straightened out.

The on-paper strength of that maiden win has been validated by short-priced, next-out wins by the second- and fourth-place finishers: Runner-up Change of Command is currently parked at No. 9 on the TDN Top 12 list after winning two subsequent starts at Gulfstream, while Tuscan Gold (Medaglia d'Oro) was named a fellow 'Rising Star' after a 6 1/4-length maiden romp at Gulfstream Jan. 31.

4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-3-1-1, $285,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 GIII Lecomte S.

Track Phantom will celebrate his Feb. 17 birthday by riding a three-race win streak into the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds for trainer Steve Asmussen.

This $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road is on a path that could end up shadowing the career arc of another Asmussen trainee, Epicenter, who displayed a similar speed-centric style in 2021-22 while winning three of four stakes (barely losing the fourth by a head) on the New Orleans prep path.

On the strength of his GII Louisiana Derby victory, Epicenter ended up starting favored in the Kentucky Derby, where he had the race won in the shadow of the wire before 80-1 shocker Rich Strike blew by from out of nowhere in the final few jumps. Epicenter later won the 10-furlong GI Travers S. and was crowned champion 3-year-old colt.

Like Track Phantom seems to be doing now, Epicenter didn't wow anyone early on with flash and panache. But by the first Saturday in May, Epicenter had earned respect for his steady, reliable way of always showing up.

Track Phantom owns a Beyer progression 74, 81, 88, 89 and 90 in five starts, all at a mile or longer, and in his trio of two-turn scores he's showed a knack for deploying gate speed without being fazed by rail-running rivals trying to disrupt his rhythm with keyed-up tactics.

This colt's 2 3/4-length wiring in the GIII Lecomte S. might seem like an artifact of a tepid tempo. But the visual at the quarter pole of Track Phantom easily opening up while an all-out favorite was under futile urging and not making up ground behind him speaks strongly in support of Track Phantom's ability to settle into a comfortable cadence, then fend off anyone who makes a serious run at him.

Fierceness | Benoit

5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

You can pick among a variety of excuses for Fierceness's failed-to-fire third in the GIII Holy Bull S., and some of them might even be valid: His break from the gate wasn't ideal. He had to be used harder than expected while losing ground on the first turn just to stay in touch with a very slow pace. He wasn't fully cranked for the effort off a three-month layoff.

The bottom line, though, is that this 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light is the 2-year-old champ, and based on the way the Holy Bull came up on paper, the betting public had hammered him to 1-5 odds because he was supposed to throttle competition of this caliber, even if he was having an “off” day.

(As a public-service announcement for horseplayers who might want to save money next year–or next month, the two 1 1/16-miles graded stakes at Gulfstream are among the biggest money-burning races for favorites on the entire Derby prep calendar. Holy Bull faves have now gone down in flames in seven of the last eight runnings, and the fave in the GII Fountain of Youth S. has lost 12 of the last 17 editions.)

But back to Fierceness: This is not a “toss the baby out with the bathwater” type of disappointment that gets this colt voted off the Top 12 island. The Repole Stable homebred reportedly exited Saturday's race none the worse for wear, according to trainer Todd Pletcher. Based on the rip-roaring display of power Fierceness unleashed in the Breeders' Cup last November, it's conceivable that he rebounds in his one remaining prep (yet to be determined) and coasts into Louisville as a formidable force.

It's still early enough in the Derby season to be forgiving. But that will get more difficult as the prep-race cadence quickens and the plot thickens.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Because Dornoch is the full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage, this son of Good Magic is destined to be saddled with outsized, and perhaps unfair, expectations.

But if Dornoch's focus ever manages to catch up with his large, brawny frame, this colt is going to be a legitimate Triple Crown threat.

This $325,000 KEESEP trainee for Danny Gargan kicked off his career with a pair of runner-up efforts before wiring a 1 1/16-mile maiden field Oct. 14 at Keeneland by 6 1/2 lengths.

Tasked with nine-furlongs and a sealed, muddy surface at Aqueduct in the Remsen S., Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took pressure from a 27-1 shot, swatted back bids from fresh challengers on the far bend, then brushed the rail and re-surged to steal the lead late from No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

The Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream will be next, and Dornoch is two breezes back into his training routine at Palm Meadows for that Mar. 2 stakes.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $39,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 Santa Anita MSW.

Maymun ($50,000 KEESEP, $900,000 OBSAPR) split horses early, shot straight to the lead, and set a spirited pace under pressure before shrugging off three wilting rivals at the quarter pole and cantering home by 7 1/2 easy lengths in his Jan. 20 unveiling over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer).

This son of Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare earned 'TDN Rising Star' status for the effort.

He was no secret to the betting public, as evidenced by 9-10 favoritism. Maymun had been on the radar of many who had pegged him as a horse of interest after seeing him breeze a furlong in :9 3/5 prior to the Ocala auction.

“He was ridiculously fast,” trainer Bob Baffert had said of the colt shortly after the sale.

“This was one of the best horses in the sale, I thought,” bloodstock agent Donato Lanni said last spring. “He deserved to bring that kind of money.”

8) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution—Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.

Add Catching Freedom to the list of Top 12 colts aiming for the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox envisions that Feb. 17 start as a springboard to the Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby as the final Kentucky Derby prep for this son of Constitution.

Cox has won the Arkansas Derby in each of the last two seasons, with Cyberknife and Angel of Empire.

After breaking his maiden in a one-turn mile and running a decent fourth in a 1 1/16-mile allowance (both at Churchill), this $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn before unwinding with a long, grind-down rally. Catching Freedom finished up with head cocked out to the grandstand, and it took him a while to swap leads in the lane, but those aren't major concerns at this still-early point in his development.

Catching Freedom's form got a boost over the weekend when the fifth- and second-place finishers out of the Smarty Jones came back to run one-two in the GIII Southwest S.

9) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.

Change of Command is expected to be entered Wednesday in the GIII Sam Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs. He'll be well regarded in the betting, but be aware that the Davis is another Florida winter prep stakes with a reputation for being a black hole for favorites. They've lost five of the last six runnings.

This Shug McGuaghey-trained son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) debuted in the slop at Saratoga when fourth over six furlongs behind eventual 2-year-old champ Fierceness (a race that produced three next-out winners).

Then he led to mid-stretch, got passed by a flying 4-to-5 fave, and was necked for the place spot over the same distance Oct. 1 at Aqueduct.

In start number three at the Big A Nov. 4, this colt shot straight to the lead over a one-turn mile only to be reeled in by the No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone.

Coming off that second-place try, he tried seven furlongs at Gulfstream Dec. 17. Change of Command broke alertly, conceded the lead while stalking inside, edged up from third to second a half-mile out, then cut to the two path to go after the leader. Clearly in front by the five-sixteenths pole, Change of Command opened up under light encouragement to win by 6 1/2 lengths (77 Beyer).

Change of Command followed that up with an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.

Conquest Warrior | Lauren King

10) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $52,200. Last start: WON Jan. 13 Gulfstream MSW.

The massive-framed Conquest Warrior (City of Light) got sandwiched at the break, shuffled to last, then repeatedly ran into traffic while trying to uncoil in his maiden win in a Gulfstream one-turn mile Jan. 13.

Although his 84 Beyer for the first-time-Lasix effort didn't exactly leap off the charts, the victory was notable more for the “how he did it” factor rather than “how fast.” Its visual impression alone was worthy of 'TDN Rising Star' honors.

“I was surprised he broke the way he did,” McGuaghey said of the $1 million KEESEP colt. “I knew he'd be back and then finish. I was surprised by the effort he put in today with the trip he had for a young horse.”

McGuaghey's next-race preference for maiden-breaking 3-year-olds at this stage of the season is generally an allowance race at either Gulfstream or Tampa rather than a stakes.

11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Mystik Dan's 11-1 splashdown win by eight lengths in the Southwest S. represented a tactical turnaround that trainer Kenny McPeek had been trying to bring about via morning training after four previous starts in which this Goldencents colt had raced on or near the lead.

“He needed to learn how to rate,” McPeek said. “He needed to learn how to settle off horses and maintain that late punch, and we've been doing that in the morning every day.”

But considering the muddy, sealed track conditions at Oaklawn, it was a dicey gamble for jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. to intentionally take back and tuck in after Mystik Dan had broken alertly and attained good early position into the first turn.

“I was fortunate enough, my horse left there quick enough, but not overly quick, to where I was able to get behind the leaders and make my way over to the fence,” Hernandez said. “We were able to save ground on both turns. When we got to the second turn, I called on him and he picked it up. I was able to kind of just wait for a spot. When a seam opened up barely on the inside, he shot through there and did the rest for us.”

It helped that the two pacemaking favorites had already capitulated and that Mystik Dan only had to reel in the stretch leader with no other foes firing from the back of the pack.

But even though the pace setup was ideal, this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing finished up under his own power with a final sixteenth timed in 5.93 seconds, an eye-catching fractional clocking considering Hernandez had dialed him down late.

The Beyer came back as 101, which is 19 points higher than Mystik Dan's last effort, but within range of the 96 this colt earned when sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs Nov. 12 at Churchill.

12) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $475,600. Last start: 4th Nov. 3 GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile S.

Timberlake (Into Mischief) got crowned a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two on July 21, a nine-length blowout over seven furlongs at Ellis Park that yielded three next-out winners.

His beaten-favorite try in the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga was hallmarked by a horror trip in which this Brad Cox trainee broke to the back, rushed up, then was continually boxed and blocked before bulling through to seize the lead at the eighth pole, only to get collared by a 54-1 shot in the final stages.

Bettors let him drift up to 4.9-1 odds in the GI Champagne S., and although the narrative of that race has unfairly evolved as Timberlake winning because odds-on Fierceness threw in a clunker, Timberlake was no slouch on his own merits. He edged up into a fast pace, swung eight wide for the drive, then put away a pesky foe at the eighth pole over a sloppy, sealed track.

Timberlake's trip to California for the Breeders' Cup was not a memorable one. He resisted efforts to settle on the first turn, then had no true response when urged for run on the second bend. He managed a no-factor fourth and has been freshened since.

Cox said last week the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn is a possible target for the Fair Grounds-based Timberlake.

“He's pointing for it,” Cox said. “We've got to see how our works go over the next several weeks, but he's doing well. The other race in play for him would probably be the [one-mile Mar. 2 GIII] Gotham [S.] at Aqueduct,” Cox said. “He did win up in New York.”

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TDN Derby Top 12: Dreams of Roses Take the Chill out of January

We're inside the 120-day mark for the 150th GI Kentucky Derby, and the pecking order is hazily taking shape. There's a speculative, forward-thinking element (read: lots of guesswork) built into the equation, with the goal of projecting how these still-developing horses will blossom over the next four months. Get tied on and enjoy the ride.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $96,600. Last start: WON Nov. 19 GIII Bob Hope S.

Nysos has won two West Coast sprints with devastating ease by a combined 19 1/4 lengths while pairing Beyer Speed Figures of 96 and 97, earning 'TDN Rising Star' accolades, and giving off the impression he has the mental makeup and physical prowess to handle tougher competition at longer distances.

This Nyquist colt out of a Bernardini mare went through the auction ring three times ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) before debuting over six furlongs Oct. 21 at Santa Anita. Seeing a Bob Baffert trainee win at first asking by 10 1/2 lengths isn't exactly a shocker, but not too many colts from that barn run up the score by such a gaudy margin while going off at 6-1 in the betting.

Start number two was the seven-eighths GIII Bob Hope S. at Del Mar Nov. 19, and that four-horse race ended up being more or less a schooling session for 2-5 fave Nysos, who, racing with blinkers off, broke alertly and settled in last while always in touch with the leaders behind brisk splits. His sustained move enabled him to power past overmatched rivals while well in hand and never being asked for maximum effort, scoring by 8 3/4 lengths.

Nysos has since recorded four regularly spaced workouts at Santa Anita and seems certain to next surface in a two-turn stakes, perhaps the Jan. 27 GIII Southwest S. over 1 1/16 miles or the Feb. 3 GIII Lewis S. at a mile.

For the third straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert related to Medina Spirit's drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. However, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on where Baffert's horses fit in the overall Derby picture and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $1,102,750. Last start: WON Nov. 4 GI FanDuel Breeders Cup Juvenile.

A two-prep path to Louisville–the Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S. and Mar. 30 GI Florida Derby–is trainer Todd Pletcher's plan for GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor and likely 2-year-old champ Fierceness.

This 'TDN Rising Star' and Repole Stable homebred by City of Light powered home by 11 1/4 lengths (95 Beyer) as the 11-10 winner of his debut sprint at Saratoga over a sealed, muddy track. That wet-track fondness didn't carry over to the sloppy

GI Champagne S. at Aqueduct, when the odds-on Fierceness lunged and got bumped at the break, loomed boldly with a four-wide move, then splashed home punchless in the stretch.

Off that seventh-place drubbing, the betting public abandoned Fierceness at 16-1 in the Breeders' Cup. He responded by trouncing the Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory.

This colt checked a lot of boxes that day by showing speed in hand from the gate, a willingness to latch onto a pacemaker, good responsiveness to cues to quicken, and an ability to ratchet into a higher gear without appearing fully torqued before galloping out well ahead of everyone else.

Fierceness only had to repel one single bid in upper stretch before cruising home in the Juvenile, a race in which the top three betting choices all failed to fire without obvious excuse. The fizzling of the faves might have indicated that the race wasn't that deep. But now, two months in the rear-view mirror, the Juvenile looks like it could be shaping into a key race, with its strength on paper solidifying after two of the four horses to run back won stakes in their next-out starts.

Fierceness | Benoit

The biggest hurdle for Fierceness might end up being historical: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Kentucky Derby wins from 39 runnings (Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016). Even some of the most electrifying 2-year-olds who excelled over 1 1/16 miles on the first Saturday of November have had trouble outrunning that daunting metric going 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

3) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

Muth (Good Magic) was named a 'TDN Rising Star' June 18 when he uncorked an 8 3/4-length debut win. With four total races at age two that included two routes and a Grade I win in the American Pharoah S., trainer Bob Baffert opted to sharpen this colt's speed by picking the Jan. 6 GIII San Vicente S. at seven furlongs for Muth's first start at three.

This $190,000 KEESEP and $2 million OBSMAR colt earned a no-nonsense win by assertively stalking two pacemakers and breaking away at will to earn a 91 Beyer in the San Vicente, meaning Muth has now run at least a 90 Beyer in all five lifetime races.

“This horse has a lot of class. He's learning a lot,” said jockey Juan Hernandez, who has been aboard Muth for all three wins and two seconds. “I think he finally learned to run by himself because he broke really quick, and he saw the other two horses in front of me and he just relaxed really well behind them.”

Muth ran second behind Fierceness in the Breeders' Cup at Santa Anita. He enjoyed a primo stalking trip over his home track, and seemed poised to take off in tandem with that rival on the far turn. But by the quarter pole Muth was already being driven hard, and he had no response to match Fierceness's full-flight winning move.

Fierceness holds the head-to-head edge. But Muth owns the broader body of work, and I wouldn't bet against him the next time he hooks up with Fierceness.

Given that these two colts are based on opposite coasts, that rematch is unlikely to happen until the Kentucky Derby itself.

4) BORN NOBLE (c, Constitution–Zapperkat, by Ghostzapper) 'TDN Rising Star' O-St Elias Stable & West Point Thoroughbreds; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $725,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $36,000. Last start: WON Dec. 30 Gulfstream MdSpWt.

Bet to 13-10 favoritism first time out going seven furlongs at Gulfstream, Born Noble (Constitution) immediately put himself into the race, pressing the pacemaking second-fave from the outside.

Irad Ortiz Jr. nudged this $725,000 KEESEP colt forward, got on even terms with the leader through the turn, and by the quarter pole forced his foe into submission while still being hand-ridden.

But once alone on the lead and set down for the drive, Born Noble came unglued, veering sharply inward despite left-handed stick work and a right-handed yank of the reins. He remained on his left lead until just prior to the sixteenth pole, but Ortiz's rousing did spark a noticeable uptick in acceleration through mid-stretch before Born Noble got geared down while 5 1/2 lengths clear under the wire.

The post-race focus might be on this firster's obvious greenness. But a glimmer of gravitas also shone through, and in the long view, Born Noble's zig-zagging antics didn't resonate as anything that can't be smoothed out with experience.

He earned 'TDN Rising Star' status and a 93 Beyer–although precise figure-making can get tricky on a day like Dec. 30, when a “good” Gulfstream surface was drying out to “fast” and there were only three total dirt races (all at different distances) for comparison on the card.

5) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $96,750. Last start: 2nd Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Sierra Leone (Gun Runner), the FTSAUG $2.3 million sales topper, in some ways ran a better race than winner Dornoch (Good Magic) when on the losing end of a nose photo in the nine-furlong GII Remsen S. Dec. 2.

That's because this Chad Brown trainee built up serious back-of-the-pack momentum when rallying from last over a sealed, muddy track. His big, sweeping, seven-wide move was notable on a day when speed was so dominant in 10 races at Aqueduct that five winners wired their fields and the remaining five were either right up on the pace or re-rallied after losing their leads.

Sierra Leone sling-shotted to the lead but lugged in once it looked like he'd blow past Dornoch, who resiliently clawed back command while pinned near the inside rail. The two co-earned 91 Beyers.

Sierra Leone | Coglianese

It was a costly lack of late-race focus in terms of the race outcome, but still, it's the type of lapse you'd rather see in December than in the spring. It was only Sierra Leone's second lifetime start, and two turns against stakes company is never a slam-dunk for a first try off a debut maiden win, even one that stamped him as a 'TDN Rising Star'.

Brown told DRF.com post-win that Sierra Leone reminds him a bit of Early Voting, another Gun Runner colt he trained to a win in the 2022 GI Preakness S.

“Now that he's lugged in [twice], I'll fool around with a little equipment to straighten him out,” Brown told DRF. “He's got a world of ability so we'll take him down [to Florida], regroup a little bit, and map out a campaign that hopefully gets him to the first Saturday in May.”

6) PARCHMENT PARTY (c, Constitution–Life Well Lived, by Tiznow) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-B Flay Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $450,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $141,960. Last start: WON Nov. 9 Churchill AOC.

'TDN Rising Star' Parchment Party, a large-framed June 5 foal, rallied stoutly up the rail from last and determinedly churned his way through traffic when winning a two-turn Churchill allowance Nov. 9 with a four-wide sweep. This son of Constitution wasn't fully dialed in and a looked touch unfocused through the final furlong, but he also wasn't even close to scraping bottom effort-wise, either.

The third- and fourth-place horses in that race won allowance and stakes engagements in their next-out starts.

Parchment Party is bred on the same cross that produced Tiz the Law, who won multiple Grade I stakes in 2020 (Travers, Florida Derby, the nine-furlong Belmont S.), plus fellow 'Rising Star' and 2022 GIII Peter Pan S. victor We the People.

A $450,000 KEESEP colt out of trainer Bill Mott's barn, Parchment Party got sent to Payson Park following his 2-for-2 start, but he hasn't had a published workout since Dec. 16.

7) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-1, $165,000. Last start: WON Dec. 23 Gun Runner S.

Track Phantom, a $500,000 KEESEP colt by Quality Road, doesn't leap out as a no-brainer Derby prospect. But the speed-centric winner of the Gun Runner S. does have upside appeal when you read between the lines of his past performances.

Trainer Steve Asmussen has started him four times, twice in one-turn miles and twice at 1 1/16 miles, with a Beyer progression of 74, 81, 88 and 89. Yet one intangible that doesn't come across on paper is how level-headedly Track Phantom has dealt with keyed-up rivals to his inside in both of his two-turn races.

In his Nov. 25 maiden-breaker, he forced the fractions with a rank runner pinned down at the fence from the entrance of the first turn to the start of the second, then repulsed a challenge from the only other horse to draw within a half-length on the turn. Roused for run three-sixteenths out, this colt showed a hint of another gear a furlong from the wire before being wrapped up late.

Facing winners for the first time against stakes company at Fair Grounds, Track Phantom was keen to make the lead from his outside post in the Gun Runner S., but a 36-1 speedster slipped up the open rail. The duo sparred down the backstretch before Track Phantom seized the lead three-eighths out and held off bids from two fresh challengers, including the 1-2 favorite.

“It's impressive that both of his two turn races have been victories,” Asmussen said post-win. “I actually thought they went too fast in the middle [of the Gun Runner]. You know, [a :46.93 half] here in a two-turn race, you don't see horses see it out very often.”

The Jan. 20 GII Lecomte S. is next.

8) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $257,400. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Remsen S.

Dornoch (Good Magic) figures to be one of the more intriguing story lines as Derby 150 approaches because he's a full brother to last year's Derby winner, Mage.

This $325,000 KEESEP colt started off his career for trainer Danny Gargan with a pair of seconds, one in a Saratoga maiden sprint and another in the Sapling S. going a mile at Monmouth. He then wired a 1 1/16-mile maiden field at Keeneland Oct. 14, running up the score by 6 1/2 lengths.

Dornoch (inside) | Sarah Andrew

Dornoch won the Remsen S. at Aqueduct by outsprinting five other rivals for the lead into the first turn over a speed-favoring track. Settling at the fence while pressured by a 27-1 shot, he knocked back bids from a couple of new challengers on the far turn, then fought gamely to surge back in front after seemingly being passed for good by Sierra Leone.

He also brushed the rail in upper stretch, yet somehow overcame that too.

“It's crazy. Usually when a horse hits the rail at the eighth pole like he did, they just stop running altogether,” Gargan said post-win. “I can't believe he re-rallied after that. He did see the other horse and get running back at him, but hitting the rail knocked him off stride and then it took him a few jumps to get back going.”

Gargan mentioned the Mar. 2 GII Fountain of Youth S. over 1 1/16 miles at Gulfstream as a possible next start, with the Feb. 3 GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct in the mix (which would be a second straight nine-furlong race for Dornoch).

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $237,350. Last start: WON Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S.

Catching Freedom (Constitution) broke his maiden in a one-turn mile at Churchill, ran a credible fourth behind Parchment Party in a 1 1/16-mile allowance, then annexed the Jan. 1 Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn with a long, grind-'em-down rally (87 Beyer).

This $575,000 KEESEP colt rode the rail near the back in his stakes debut, sliced between rivals entering the far turn, got second run at a dueling duo, spun widest in the five path, then finished in workmanlike fashion with his head cocked to the grandstand before widening the winning margin to 2 1/2 lengths.

“Very proud of the horse,” trainer Brad Cox said post-win. “I think he's still learning. I think he was a little green there down the lane, but overall showed that he does have a lot of stamina and talent.”

Catching Freedom is a half-brother to Bishops Bay (Uncle Mo), a stakes-placed sophomore who raced four times for Cox (different owners) in 2023. That colt had the distinction of posting Beyers of 97, 88, 97 and 96, and in one of those races Bishops Bay was beaten only a head by subsequent Belmont S. and Travers S. winner Arcangelo (Arrogate).

10) CHANGE OF COMMAND (c, Into Mischief–Moi, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales history: $570,000 Wlg '21 FTKNOV; $1,050,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $113,300. Last start: WON Jan. 5 Gulfstream AOC.

It took four well-spaced starts for this son of Into Mischief ($570,000 FTKNOV, $1.05 million KEESEP) to bust out of the maiden ranks at 2-5 odds at Gulfstream. But he's now won two in a row in Florida after an 83-Beyer allowance score Jan. 5 over 1 1/16 miles, capitalizing on a trouble-free stalking trip to wear down a pesky pacesetter.

Despite winning by a neck, trainer Shug McGuaghey said Change of Command “didn't want to finish as well as I'd like. I've got to do some work to figure things out. I hope this moves him forward. He had to kind of belly down and run, so that should help him. We'll take him back to Payson and find out.”

Change of Command had previously compiled a robust set of company lines while finishing respectably behind well-regarded juveniles in New York.

11) ETHAN ENERGY (c, Uncle Mo–Sass and Class, by Harlan's Holiday) O-Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $34,250. Last start: Won Dec. 23 FG MdSpWt.

This Fair Grounds maiden-breaker for trainer Brad Cox hit the winner's circle in start number two Dec. 23, adding Lasix. removing blinkers, and stretching to 1 1/16 miles for a 5 1/4-length tally (83 Beyer).

Under a light hold on the outside while midpack behind a tepid tempo, Ethan Energy was encouraged to loop the group on the far turn. This Stonestreet homebred son of Uncle Mo stayed on and opened up under mild rousing through the lane, then got pushed out late under a steady hand ride before being geared down for the final stages.

His debut at Keeneland, in which Ethan Energy was off last and allowed to lag with only mild progress inside, has thus far yielded three next-out maiden winners. One of them, Legalize (Constitution), also won the Sugar Bowl S., which was two races later on the same card as Ethan Energy's maiden score.

12) CARBONE (c, Mitole–Treasure in Heaven, by Street Sense) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-L William & Corinne Heiligbrodt (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $153,000. Last start: WON Dec. 31 OP AOC.

This 'TDN Rising Star's sire, Mitole, was the blitzingly fast 2019 champion male sprinter. But there are enough longer-distance influences in Carbone's pedigree (Giant's Causeway and Seattle Slew up top, Street Sense for a damsire) to think he might stay on as a horse of interest as the prep season progresses.

Carbone has been in front at every call in his 2-for-2 career for trainer Steve Asmussen, and this homebred for William and Corinne Heiligbrodt has paired 85 and 86 Beyers while stretching out from six furlongs to a mile.

In his Oaklawn allowance win, Carbone effortlessly controlled the tempo and really only faced one serious challenge on the far turn, opening up under his own power and toying with that rival whenever he edged closer.

His run into the stretch provided a nice visual, with jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. sitting chilly atop this colt while every other horse in his wake was being driven. Carbone won by four, but it could have been more had the race not finished at the sixteenth pole under Oaklawn's short-stretch configuration for the mile distance.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: Dreams of Roses Take the Chill out of January appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 20: Cadence Quickens, Plot Thickens

This week's rankings are in “likeliest winner” format, based on the 20 current qualifiers on the “Road to the GI Kentucky Derby” points list.

1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move rides a three-race win streak into Louisville, with each of his two-turn stakes scores punctuated by decisive inside moves. The final times from those victories in the GII Los Alamitos Derby, GII San Felipe S., and GI Santa Anita Derby represent the fastest clockings among all the 1 1/16-mile and 1 1/18-mile races on the “Road to the Derby” qualifying schedule in 2022-23.

Yet this Tim Yakteen-trained son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) projects to be an overlay in the Derby betting. The post draw will be a big factor in pegging everyone's pari-mutuel chances, but all things equal, Practical Move is likely to be overshadowed in the wagering by divisional champ Forte (Violence), and possibly even Tapit Trice (Tapit), two high-profile 'TDN Rising Stars' from Todd Pletcher's stable who are ranked at Nos. 2 and 5 on this list.

Beyond his own attributes, history is on Practical Move's side: Santa Anita Derby participants have accounted for 19 Kentucky Derby winners since 1940. In the past decade, the winners of the Santa Anita Derby went on to capture the Kentucky Derby in 2012, 2014 and 2018.

On Friday at Santa Anita, Practical Move worked a :47 half-mile in company (2/31), finishing slightly ahead of stablemate Kangaroo Court (Dads Caps), who is aiming for a start in the GII Pat Day Mile S. on the Derby undercard. Practical Move is scheduled to work once more in California on Friday before shipping to Churchill.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

The chief knocks against reigning champion Forte are primarily “on paper.”

The first is the daunting 38-year trend of only two GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners repeating in the Kentucky Derby. That means 95 % of the time since 1984, the best colt on the first Saturday in November is not the best on the first Saturday in May.

The second is the concerning decline of Forte's Beyer Speed Figures, which peaked at 100 in the Juvenile but slid to 98 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. and dipped again to 95 in the GI Florida Derby.

But Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) stands above his peers when it comes to intangibles that can't be quantified. Lanky, athletic and adaptable, he reliably finds ways to win, which he has done every time except once, and that lone loss is now nine months in the rear-view mirror.

Forte readily and willingly jumps into the bit when cued to quicken by regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., and he finishes with his ears pricked, signaling he hasn't been fully extended. Among the Derby competitors this year, this son of Violence seems most likely to have a yet-to-be-seen stretch gear he hasn't been called upon to produce.

“Forte is a very straightforward horse to train,” said trainer Todd Pletcher after a 1:02 five-eighths breeze Friday at Churchill (29/33). “He's pushbutton.”

3) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying, a May 11 foal by Justify who is a half-brother to 2019 champion distaffer Midnight Bisou, has major mojo as a colt getting good at just the right time.

His tenacious second, beaten a neck by Tapit Trice in the GI Blue Grass S., was likely not his peak effort. More importantly, his speed-centric running style puts him on or near the lead in the Derby, which is the race's winning profile in eight of the last nine years.

“I expected him to win the Blue Grass,” trainer Brad Cox said Friday after watching Verifying train. “I thought he ran a winning race. He got beat by a very good horse.”

To have full faith in Verifying, you have to buy into the belief that he's truly turned a corner, development-wise, and will be able to put together back-to-back strong races, which has eluded him so far.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP) was an odds-on debut winner sprinting at Saratoga. He then ran second in the GI Champagne S., and trainer Brad Cox subsequently conceded that the colt “wasn't quite ready” for his sixth-place try in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Verifying matured over the winter, won an Oaklawn allowance by open lengths, then threw in a beaten-fave clunker when fourth in the GII Rebel S. He then “put things together in the Blue Grass, and has a lot of tactical speed that should play to his advantage in the Derby,” Cox said.

4) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Hit Show has moved around quite a bit in his career. He's raced at Keeneland, Churchill, Oaklawn and Aqueduct, and in between those two New York trips he was stabled at Fair Grounds. Trainer Brad Cox said last week one thing he's noticed about this 3-for-5 Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West is that Hit Show has handled every different experience without drama, and that he is quick to settle into his routine.

That's a nice mindset, especially for a colt who won't turn three until May 9.

Hit Show has won twice over nine furlongs and has upped his Beyer every time he's raced, most recently topping out at 93 when second, beaten a nose, as the middle horse who got pinballed in the three-way stretch scrum of the GII Wood Memorial S.

If you take the view that Hit Show will likely benefit in the long run from having been roughed up and not backing down, he's probably pretty high on your list.

But another way to look at the Wood is that Hit Show was an all-out fave who couldn't put away a maiden and a 59-1 shot.  If that's your takeaway, he's likely not in your top tier.

North of 20-1 on Derby day will probably be the price point to find out which assessment is correct.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

The commanding stride of Tapit Trice is evocative of pure power, and the sustained, six-furlong move he unleashed when winning the Blue Grass S. left a positive visual impression that no other competitor on this year's Derby trail has matched.

But still, the huge question about his Derby chances centers on how far back this notoriously slow-starting son of Tapit will be, and whether or not he will be afforded a long and clear enough runway to attain his high-torque cruising speed.

This 'TDN Rising Star' likely has enough brute force to propel himself through any tight passage that jockey Luis Saez wants to shoot for. But once Tapit Trice builds up a full head of steam, don't expect him to be able to nimbly stop and restart his momentum through traffic the way a lighter-framed horse might be able to do.

This burly gray ($1.3 million KEESEP) stood out so much off his maiden win Dec. 17 that he made the initial TDN Top 12, ranked fourth.

Back on Jan. 3, I wrote that he demonstrated “raw, Derby-quality talent beneath a still-unpolished surface.”

It's now nearly four months later, and I still regard Tapit Trice highly–while still concerned if his trouble breaking alertly and needing to be scrubbed on for early run is going to cost him amid the chaos of the 20-horse Derby.

6) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

The headline writers are going to go bonkers with the “came back to life” hyperbole if Reincarnate wins the Derby. Although this colt does need some sort of transformational rebirth based on his winless form since January, this long-striding $775,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic colt is not as far-fetched a Derby proposition as he might seem.

Reincarnate has never been out of the money from seven starts, all at a mile or longer. He was most recently third in two Oaklawn stakes, first encountering trip trouble in the Rebel, then coming up punchless with a no-excuse stalking setup in the GI Arkansas Derby.

Maybe the two trips to Hot Springs from California just didn't agree with him. It also didn't help that when Reincarnate was back at home at Santa Anita, training was disrupted all winter long because of heavy rains.

But consider the John Velazquez factor. He's still America's premier big-race jockey when riding horses with the ability to control the pace. He's crossed the finish line first in three of the last six Derbies. All were on frontrunners. One was 12-1 and another was 8-1. What more do  you need to know?

7) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) projects to be a forward factor in the Derby, but it's not crucial that he be leading the pack.

Kingsbarns closed adeptly in his one-turn-mile winning MSW debut at Gulfstream after being covered up at the rail, caught in tight on the turn, then boxed and blocked at the top of the stretch. Tasked with two turns in a Tampa allowance, Kingsbarns conceded an ambitious lead, then reeled in a long-shot speedster to draw away by 7 ¾ easy lengths (85 Beyer).

He then found himself on the front end of a GII Louisiana Derby that projected on paper to have no one else vying for the lead, and this son of Uncle Mo cruised home unchallenged over 1 3/16 miles through somnambulant splits (:24.71, 49.50, 1:14.69, 1:39.13) and a 1:57.33 final time that was the slowest in four years since that stakes got elongated from nine furlongs. His Beyer of 95 compares to same-period Louisiana Derby winning Beyers of 91, 99 and 102.

“I think people gave Kingsbarns a discount because of the time of the Louisiana Derby,” Spendthrift Farm president Eric Gustavson said last week “I don't think you should be penalized by going to the front and putting everyone else to sleep like he did. We're pretty confident coming into the Derby.”

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 3rd in the GIII Lexington S. at Keeneland Apr. 15. Ky Derby Points: 46.

You can make a cogent case for Disarm improving in the Derby. Whether that advancement will be good enough to win is a separate question.

As a large-framed son of Gun Runner, he was green while third in his June 19 Churchill debut at 5 ½ furlongs. Then he earned 'TDN Rising Star' status with a blast-off, stretch-out Saratoga score over seven furlongs.

Shelved until a Feb. 19 Oaklawn allowance, this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred closed for second behind a wire-to-wire winner on a day when horses on the lead or just off it won seven of Oaklawn's nine races. And he was second again, with minor trip trouble, in the Mar. 25 Louisiana Derby behind lone-speed Kingsbarns, who wired the field on a day when 10 early-pace horses dominated in 11 Fair Grounds dirt races.

Disarm's appearance in the Apr. 15 GIII Lexington S. was only a points-earning exercise to ensure he qualified for the Derby, so beyond making a competent middle move to secure third, the colt was not asked for strenuous exertion three weeks ahead of his higher goal.

Disarm | Coady

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Trainer Brad Cox last week described Angel of Empire's progression from an “all legs” Pennsylvania-bred who began his career in modest races at Horseshoe Indianapolis to a “serious player” at the top level of the game who has filled out physically and gotten sharper mentally.

Angel of Empire ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) is 4-for-6 lifetime while honing a keen knack for tracking targets and methodically reeling them in.

He's twice won nine-furlong stakes this season, and he ripped through a closing eighth in :12.12 in the Arkansas Derby, the fastest final furlong out of the nine stakes at 1 1/18 miles in the 2022-23 “Road to the Derby” points series.

This son of Classic Empire's company line from the Arkansas Derby got a boost on Saturday, when sixth-place finisher Red Route One (Gun Runner) came back to win the $200,000 Bath House Row S. over nine furlongs at Oaklawn.

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Meet the intriguing wild card in the 2023 Derby. This $150,000 RNA at KEESEP generates rooting interest because he competes for an owner, trainer and jockey who have never participated in the Derby, and Two Phil's started as his career without much fanfare at non-traditional Derby-path tracks like Colonial Downs and Canterbury Park.

This son of Hard Spun attracted attention with a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds in the GIII Street Sense S. at Churchill back on Oct 30. After running second in the GII Lecomte S. and third in the Risen Star S., trainer Larry Rivelli took a chance at bankrolling qualifying points against easier competition over the Tapeta surface in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway, and Two Phil's responded with a 101-Beyer trouncing.

Trouble is, no one seems to know whether to take that big fig at face value. It was earned over a non-dirt surface, and it clocks in at 13 points higher than the previous best number Two Phil's ever produced.

Even though Animal Kingdom (2011) and Rich Strike (2022) proved that Turfway's premier stakes can be a springboard to a blanket of roses, the remaining Derby starters out of the Ruby (or its differently named predecessors) have been a collective 0-for-20 in Louisville since that stakes was first run over a synthetic surface in 2006.

11) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

Mage still needs to work on his gate-breaking skills, and his relative inexperience of just three races since debuting Jan. 28 isn't ideal. But that sweeping, slingshot move he uncorked on the far turn of the Florida Derby will be remembered as his first true flash of Grade I talent if he can build on that effort and sustain his run deeper into the lane over 10 furlongs.

No one will hold it against Mage that he got outfinished in the Florida Derby by the better-seasoned Forte. If anything, Mage got style points for making a move-within-a-move when he dig in to repulse a mid-stretch bid from the eventual third-place finisher.

Still, the Florida Derby might not end up being a reliable measuring stick this year. Beyond Forte and Mage, the race has yielded no other Kentucky Derby qualifiers ranked within the current Top 20.

This son of Good Magic ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) breezed six furlongs in 1:14.78 Saturday at Gulfstream (1/1). Assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado, Jr., said that move will be the colt's final serious work, because at Churchill, “we just want him to get to know the track. We don't expect to do very much there, fitness-wise.”

12) LORD MILES (c, Curlin–Lady Esme, by Majestic Warrior) O/B-Vegso Racing Stable; T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-0-1, $451,100. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 105.

Lord Miles (Curlin) paid $120 to win the Wood Memorial, gaining the upper hand (hoof?)  in a rough, three-way stretch fight.

That's the second time in three years a Wood winner has paid boxcars. Remember Bourbonic at 72-1 in 2021? He was 13th in the Derby. But it doesn't seem to matter if the Wood winner is a favorite or a long shot: The last Wood winner to capture the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, and you have to time-travel back to 1981 to find the next closest, Pleasant Colony.

“He came out of the Wood well. He shipped back and he's held his weight,” trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., said after a half-mile breeze Friday at Gulfstream in :47.05 (2/33).

Joseph acknowledged that “his race in the Wood isn't going to be good enough to win the Derby. He's going to have to improve again…. The biggest drawback with him has been his inconsistency. Sometimes he comes off the bridle and gives himself too much to do.”

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate:

13) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)

Rocket Can (Into Mischief), who celebrates his third birthday Apr. 28, will race with blinkers for the first time in the Derby, trainer Bill Mott confirmed after the colt breezed five furlongs in 1:01 Sunday (11/41) at Churchill Downs. “The one thing that [his beaten-fave fourth in the Arkansas Derby] told me is he still has more to give in the tank,” Mott said. “I don't think he's quite learned to give it his all. That's what you get this time of year with 3-year-olds, but they can improve quickly. He's got a lot of route pedigree on his bottom side being [out of a mare] by Tapit. We added blinkers in today's work and will for the race. Hopefully, that will help him go past horses when he runs up beside them.” Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray, owns a win and a close second in two main-track starts at Churchill. His Oct. 30 allowance score in the slop there over 1 1/16 miles is notable for being .99 seconds faster than the clocking Two Phil's turned in when winning the same-day GIII Street Sense S.

14) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)

Derma Sotogake (Jpn) shares an Apr. 28 birthday with Rocket Can. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL son of Mind Your Biscuits wired the G2 UAE Derby, cracking the competition while still in hand before widening his margin to the wire under light encouragement. Kate Hunter, who represents the Japan Racing Association and is a Derby liaison for the two Japan-based entrants this year, told TDN's Katie Petrunyak that “Derma Sotogake was always impressive from the time I saw him in Saudi through Dubai. He is a beautiful horse and he moves really well. He has a fun personality. He's really sweet, but he's also full of fire.” But will he seek the lead in Louisville? “If Derma Sotogake is able to set his own pace and take things the way he wants to with no one challenging him, he might,” Hunter said.

Derma Sotogake | Coady

15) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)

Sun Thunder, a late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG), still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks. But he's run well enough in four graded stakes preps this season (fourth, second, fifth and fourth) to rack up qualifying points behind heavier hitters like Tapit Trice, Kingsbarns, Angel of Empire, and the currently sidelined but formerly No 1-ranked 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (Uncle Mo). He's scheduled for a workout on Wednesday. Brian Hernandez, Jr., will ride in the Derby.

16) Jace's Road (Quality Road)

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, who turns three Apr. 25, got an early birthday present Sunday when the defection of Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) nudged him off the also-eligible list and into the Derby. This $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road was most recently third in the Louisiana Derby. He's winless in two tries since Dec. 26, but the only two times he's ever been off the board were both over sloppy surfaces, once at Churchill and again at Oaklawn. Jace's Road generally has enough tactical speed to park himself close to the early pace. But we've yet to see him build off that prime positioning by combining it with a menacing, far-turn kick.

17) Raise Cain (Violence)

You don't see much of 1999 GI Belmont S. winner and 2000 older champion male Lemon Drop Kid in pedigrees these days, but that sturdy dose of female-family stamina underneath the sire Violence should give Raise Cain a reputable foundation for being able to get a distance of ground over dirt. But while that inherited ability is theoretically there, Raise Cain ($180,000 KEESEP; $65,000 RNA OBSOPN) is 0-for-3 around two turns. His best race was the Mar. 4 GIII Gotham S., a one-turn mile run over a muddy, sealed track in which Raise Can won by 7 ½ lengths and earned a 90 Beyer. He was wide and driving to get fifth in the Blue Grass, but realistically was not in the same league as one-two finishers Tapit Trice and Verifying, who finished necks apart while 5 3/4 lengths ahead of everyone else.

18) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})

Confidence Game ($25,000 KEESEP) is an efficient-striding colt with seven races of experience (five of them routes). This son of Candy Ride (Arg) earned a 94 Beyer by winning the Rebel S., but has not started since. That was a 11-point jump off his previous career-high Beyer, and he projects to need another significant uptick of seven or eight points to be in the hunt in the Derby. He's won two of four starts over “fast” Churchill dirt, which is a plus.

19) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)

The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) is seeking his first win since capturing the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26, but a wide trip might have hampered his chances when fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. This son of the champion United States sprinter Drefong (¥70,000,000 JRHJUL) was also third, beaten 10 lengths by Derma Sotogake, in the UAE Derby. Japanese racing liaison Kate Hunter described the colt to TDN this week as being “wise beyond his years. He's such a calm 3-year-old that you would think he is five or six. That calmness and collectiveness will really come in handy on Derby day.”

20) Wild On Ice (Tapizar)

This Texas-bred homebred for Frank Sumpter won the GIII Sunland Derby in New Mexico with a 77 Beyer after sitting just behind an unsustainable speed duel. The second- and fifth-place finishers out of that race then tried the Santa Anita Derby but made no impact, finishing eighth and fifth. In two previous $100,000 stakes routes at Sunland, this son of Tapizar was beaten a combined 45 1/2 lengths.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: Cadence Quickens, Plot Thickens appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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