Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 For Jan. 26

Two new shooters debut on the Top 12 this week and there was a large leap forward from the previously ranked No. 10 contender all the way up to the No. 2 spot. Four qualifying races on the Road to the GI Kentucky Derby points series are on the docket for the next two weekends.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality) O/B-Godolphin (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144. Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13 or GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality will likely add an Eclipse Award to his résumé on Thursday as this undefeated colt preps for either the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds or the GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. Remaining where he is stabled at Fair Grounds means this Godolphin homebred by Tapit doesn't have to ship while competing for five times more Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5) than what are up for grabs at Oaklawn (10-4-2-1). But the Risen Star is a more arduous nine furlongs as opposed to the Southwest's 1 1/16 miles. Beyond the choice for Essential Quality's 2021 debut, trainer Brad Cox said earlier this month that the GII Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles would be “in play” Mar. 20. At age two, this colt looked comfortable settling into authoritative stalk mode for all three of his victories. But in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he did benefit immensely from a speed setup–the Juvenile's fastest opening quarter mile since 2014 and its fastest half-mile split since 2003. Essential Quality must overcome the historical burden of only two Juvenile winners in 36 years (Nyquist and Street Sense) parlaying a Breeders' Cup win into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 23.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 10.

I normally wouldn't get too excited about a recent maiden-breaker who looked dominant on paper wiring an ungraded stakes field. In fact, well-bet, wire-to-wire horses have won each of the previous three editions of the Smarty Jones S., but none made an impact as Derby contenders. Caddo River resonates differently, though. This 'TDN Rising Star's 10 1/4-length crushing of the competition on opening day at Oaklawn (92 Beyer Speed Figure) represents the third race in a row this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable set or forced the issue while looking relaxed, torqueing out effectively and leaving the impression there was untapped power in reserve. Caddo River broke fluidly, then was subtly cued to quicken from the outermost seven post to make sure he cleared the field and put a length or two of cushion between him and a hard-to-handle 57-1 shot. He loped down the backstretch, then was nudged for more entering the far turn (even though his lead was not in danger). He cruised into a higher gear under light coaxing and was hand-ridden for a solo drive to the wire. Caddo River's emphatic double-digit winning margin came over a short-stretch configuration, meaning he didn't have an extra sixteenth of straightaway late in the race to pad that margin. Owned, bred (and named after) Arkansas connections, Caddo River almost certainly will remain on the Oaklawn prep path to Louisville.

3) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d'Oro)
O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.
Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: Mdn win, Belmont, Sept. 19
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Likeable celebrates his foaling-date birthday Jan. 26 and appears ready to hit the entries now more than a month into his winter training at Palm Beach Downs. This $350,000 KEESEP Frosted colt's race progression so far includes a very useful debut at Saratoga when second despite trip woes; a freewheeling one-turn mile MSW at Belmont that he wired by 8 1/2 lengths, and what amounts to a thrown-to-the-wolves 13th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which Likeable pulled, got hooked four wide into the first turn, then contributed to an unsustainably torrid pace that cooked him by the time the field hit the far turn. He's the type of horse who projects to run well at Gulfstream, either in a one-turn mile or at 1 1/16 miles around two, because both configurations favor outright speed.

4) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $900,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.
Last Start: Mdn win, Gulfstream, Dec. 12
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prime Factor closed at 21-1 odds in last weekend's Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. It's likely that his prep path toward the Derby will look similar to that of his sire, Quality Road, who used victories in both the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. and the GI Florida Derby to propel him toward Kentucky Derby favoritism before quarter cracks derailed Quality Road's chances of starting in the Triple Crown. I wrote in the last installment of the Top 12 how this $900,000 KEESEP colt's MSW romp Dec. 12 at Gulfstream was the most authoritative maiden win among the Derby candidates, but Saturday's wowza performance by Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro) has given Prime Factor a run for the money for that distinction (read more below at No. 7). Still, let's not allow any form of recency bias to erase how convincingly this Todd Pletcher trainee widened under wraps to blast home by 8 3/4 lengths in an 85 Beyer effort that clocked 0.08 seconds faster than the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for established older distaffers on the same card.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (Ky). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $95,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 12.

Although I'm sure the connections of Jackie's Warrior would have much rather finished first in the Juvenile to cap what would have been a five-for-five season, the fact that this $95,000 KEESEP Maclean's Music colt was only 3 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality in the most important race of the year for 2-year-olds now means “Jackie” doesn't have to prep for his 2021 debut under a figurative microscope. The pressure of being an undefeated champ comes with the difficult task of being a target for the rest of the division, and for some developing colts, that's too much. Right now, Jackie is projected to start in the Southwest S., raising the tantalizing possibility of an early-season rematch with Essential Quality (who has not committed either way). Speculating which colt might have the upper hand is a fun mental exercise three weeks out from that race. Right now, I'd give the head-to-head edge to Jackie, based on his dominant ability to control the pace. But that assessment might not hold for longer races deeper into the spring, when stamina questions are likely to swirl.

6) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: Possible for GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 10.

This $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is on a similar prep-race trajectory as trainer Bob Baffert's 2020 Derby winner Authentic, who used the GIII Sham S. and GII San Felipe S. as his early-season springboard until the Derby got rescheduled for September. Baffert has noted similarities between the two colts, who, beyond sharing a sire, are hallmarked by a speed-centric, headstrong, aggressive way of going. 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good won the Jan. 2 Sham in wire-to-wire fashion, racking up an eye-catching 101 Beyer in the process (Authentic earned a 90 Beyer for his Sham). But, like Authentic in January last year, Life Is Good still comes across as more of a raw-talent work in progress, and it's difficult to gauge just how sharp a crew Life Is Good roughed up in that strung-out five-horse stakes. Baffert has now won seven editions of the Sham, but Authentic was the only one of his six Derby champs to have won that prep race. In fact, Baffert's only other Sham winner to even run in the Derby was Bob and John (17th in 2006).

7) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st GP maiden, Jan. 23
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby points: 0.

The seven-furlong MSW on the Pegasus undercard at Gulfstream Saturday had the look of a “loaded” race as soon as the overnight was drawn, and the only real surprise was that one of the talented colts would manage to win it by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths. Prevalence broke inward and brushed with a rival, then righted himself to prowl through the pack and secure the rail in a spirited five-way fight for the lead. One by one his rivals peeled away, and at the entrance to the turn Prevalence had wrested a half-length lead under pressure. He opened up incrementally while still hand-ridden, and by the head of the lane was as good as gone while some pretty nice colts behind him were under full-out drives. Left in his wake were the runner-up Stage Raider (Pioneerof the Nile), a half-brother to 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify, and third-place Ghazaaly (Curlin), a $1.05-million KEESEP buy. The 89-Beyer performance earned Prevalence 'TDN Rising Star' status while also giving Godolphin no fewer than three homebreds (for three different trainers) in the current Top 12.

8) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-2, $221,420.
Last Start: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Aiming for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby points: 16.

Midnight Bourbon, who hit his third birthdate Jan. 25, made a positive impression with a wire-to-wire win in the GIII Lecomte S. The question he'll need to answer is how much he relied on an ideal pace scenario to propel him to that victory. The Lecomte drew flush with early speed, but after three scratches and a stutter-step start by the remaining main pace threat in the race, this $525,000 KEESEP colt was handed the lead from post one, and was allowed to dictate a moderate enough tempo (:24.68 and :48.99) that left him with plenty of energy to flick away two far-turn bids from the Nos. 9 and 11 contenders on this list. But Midnight Bourbon did finish up professionally while being kept to task, and his 91 Beyer for the effort is respectable for a 3-year-old who hadn't raced since Oct. 10. Seeing two-time GI Breeders' Cup Classic champ Tiznow anchor the top line in this colt's pedigree is heartening from a stamina standpoint, and trainer Steve Asmussen confirmed he would be pointed toward the GII Risen Star S. and GII Louisiana Derby.

9) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $107,700.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 4.

Proxy got first run at Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte S., and although this Tapit homebred for Godolphin couldn't seal the deal to reel in that solo pacemaker, he did glean a useful lesson in how to claw back his position when headed in the stretch by 4-5 favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun as they battled for second. Although the soft internal splits worked to the advantage of Midnight Bourbon, Proxy was only a length behind at the wire, and the 1:44.41 final time for 1 1/16 miles was only 0.14 seconds shy of the same-distance clocking set by older horses in the GIII Louisiana S. earlier on the card. The Lecomte also marked Proxy's return to Lasix-free racing (he's now won twice on it and finished second twice without it), which is a must this year for sophomores competing on the Lasix-free Triple Crown trail. “The way he dug in and held off the favorite in the end, and was getting to the winner, I couldn't have been happier,” said trainer Michael Stidham. “I think the farther the better.”

10) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (Ky). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wnlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., Kee, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Highly Motivated is now two half-mile breezes into his Palm Meadows training for a 2021 debut, meaning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) could be in play. Thus far he's a 2-for-3 sprint specialist, but this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt's stalking 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist S. score was a track-record-setting key race that kicked off the Breeders' Cup undercard, having produced three next-out winners (in the Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds, a Churchill open allowance, and a Louisiana-bred stakes at Fair Grounds). Jockey Javier Castellano, who has been out since after the Breeders' Cup to heal from scheduled hip surgery, made it a point earlier this winter to say he'd like to be back in time for the FOY, which is key for this colt, because he was Highly Motivated's rider every time out last season.

11) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.
Last Start: 3rd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 2.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun was tactically disadvantaged by being three wide on both turns behind a tepid pace in the Lecomte S., and this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief also lost the race within the race by letting Proxy come back to beat him for second after Mandaloun looked him in the eye but couldn't clear him. Still, in the larger picture, one subpar effort in January shouldn't derail this colt from Derby aspirations. He bulled through heavy traffic to break his maiden and then convincingly won an allowance, both at Churchill, and his 89 Beyer in the Lecomte still represents an upward arc in Mandaloun's numbers progression. “I think we are going to add blinkers,” Cox said the day after the Lecomte. “I talked it over with the Juddmonte team and Florent [jockey Geroux]. We kind of thought that ever since his first race.”

12) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (Ky). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Aiming for the GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 18.

Although Keepmeinmind didn't break his maiden until he won the Nov. 29 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., jockey David Cohen said it was the deep closer's first career start Sept. 2 that stamped him as a Classic-caliber colt. “When we made that first start at a mile, which is very hard the first time out, we came out of the [second-outermost post], and he made it down to the rail, squeezed through a tight spot, had a tough time for a first start. But he showed a lot of heart,” Cohen told the Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette last week. As an off-the-pace specialist, the Laoban colt might be against the grain of both the 1 1/16 miles distance and the speed-rewarding nature of the Oaklawn surface in the Southwest S. But so long as Keepmeinmind continues to accumulate qualifying points, the more sneaky-good his Derby chances look. This probably isn't the type of colt who will get to the first Saturday in May by racking up multiple wins in prep races. But as a maternal grandson of Victory Gallop, he'd be tough to leave out of Derby exotics with a running style that suggests he's capable of passing multiple horses in the stretch of a 20-horse race over 10 furlongs.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Bezos (Empire Maker): Baffert trainee closed at 26-1 in Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager on Sunday-a remarkable price because this $190,000 KEENOV and $400,000 KEESEP colt has yet to start in a race.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole makes 2021 debut in Saturday's GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita. This two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) was a 94-1 second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

King Fury (Curlin): This $950,000 FTSAUG colt was previously ranked at No. 12 on this list, but workout inactivity so far this year has caused him to be leapfrogged by others who are a bit farther along the Derby trail.

Nova Rags (Union Rags): Favored Bill Mott-trained colt looped group five-sixteenths out and was kept to task despite no challengers late in 75-Beyer Pasco S. tally at Tampa Jan. 16.

Santa Cruiser (Dialed In): Figured as main pace threat in Lecomte off tenacious MSW mile win but got shuffled to last at break and really never ran his race. Closed well enough from far back to manage a better-than-looks fourth.

Speaker's Corner (Street Sense): Formerly rated at No. 7, this Godolphin homebred trained by Mott owns a key-race MSW win at Belmont back on Oct. 11, but workout inactivity this year has triggered relegation out of the Top 12.

The Great One (Nyquist): Runner-up as a maiden in the Dec. 19 GII Los Alamitos Futurity returned on Saturday to win a Santa Anita MSW by 14 1/2 lengths in a four-horse field. Trainer Doug O'Neill said the San Felipe S. is the next logical spot.

The post The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 For Jan. 26 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Dec. 30

We’re now inside the 125-day mark until the first Saturday in May. The debut 2021 GI Kentucky Derby rankings are compiled largely with an eye toward sophomore prowess rather than lauding horses for accomplishments at age two. Interestingly, five homebreds have secured spots within the initial Top 12, a departure from previous seasons when there were only one or two.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit—Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)

O/B-Godolphin (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.

Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Kee, Nov. 6

Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 30.

‘TDN Rising Star’ and presumptive divisional champ Essential Quality is the Top 12 kingpin on the cusp of his sophomore season. That also means this assertive gray will have a figurative target on his back as he attempts to buck the daunting, decades-long stat (2-for-36) that argues against the likelihood of the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner going on to win the Derby. This high-energy Tapit homebred for Godolphin earned top billing by orchestrating an authoritative, undefeated three-act performance over the span of just two months in 2020, and the scary-good thing is that Essential Quality hardly seemed to be running all out or scraping stamina bottom in any of those races. He broke his maiden sprinting over the Churchill surface, then won back-to-back Grade I routes over Keeneland’s short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration. His GI Breeders’ Futurity S. win was notable for the confident, pace-pressing ability this colt displayed before drawing off at will, and his late-closing Juvenile score earned the top two-turn Beyer Speed Figure (95) by any 2-year-old this year in a two-turn race. Essential Quality is wintering in New Orleans, with two December breezes so far at Fair Grounds and no prep races publicly disclosed.

2) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d’Oro)

O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.

Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Kee, Nov. 6

Accomplishments: Mdn win, Belmont, Sept. 19

Next Start: Uncommitted

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Likeable ran 13th in the Juvenile and has only a maiden win to his credit, so yes, it does seem a little outlandish to have him ranked this highly to start the season. But I’ve been intrigued by this $350,000 KEESEP Frosted colt since his unveiling at Saratoga, and see no reason to bury him deeper down the list because a more polished version of Likeable has the potential to explosively improve at age three. His Aug. 22 off-turf, seven-furlong debut caught the eye because Likeable was widest on the turn, moved (prematurely) to engage the leaders, got banged around in the stretch, yet still didn’t pack it in while fighting to the finish against a well-meant winner. He stretched to a one-turn mile at Belmont Sept. 15, flashing sharp speed under restraint while pulling in spots before swatting away a 4-5 fave on the turn and cantering home by 8 1/2 lengths. Trainer Todd Pletcher then gambled on throwing Likeable into the Breeders’ Cup, and he ran like a youngster not quite ready for prime time, dragging the rider four wide through the turn to engage a 41-1 kamikaze pacemaker through the fastest opening quarter in the Juvenile since 2014 and that race’s fastest half-mile split since 2003. After a bit of time off, Likeable has resumed breezing at Palm Beach Downs in Florida, where his strong early turn of foot should be a great match for Gulfstream’s speed-conducive surface.

3) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)

O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $900,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.

Last Start: Mdn win, Gulfstream, Dec. 12

Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

There is no need to search for better-than-it looks nuance in the emphatic, blast-off debut of Prime Factor, a $900,000 KEESEP colt who was the co-second priciest of 63 Quality Road yearlings to sell in 2019. This Pletcher trainee pressed the lone speed and took control at will in a Gulfstream MSW sprint Dec. 12, earning ‘TDN Rising Star’ status by widening under wraps to win by 8 3/4 lengths in a 1:10.38 clocking (85 Beyer) that went .08 seconds faster than the only other six-furlong race on the card, the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for older female sprinters. “We were looking forward to a good debut. Honestly, he exceeded expectations,” Pletcher said post-race. Michael Wallace, the CEO of co-owner China Horse Club, added that the colt was “in the top three of our yearling selections and has impressed all throughout the year. We will discuss the next step for him with our partners, WinStar Farm, but he is undoubtedly an exciting prospect for 2021.”

4) JACKIE’S WARRIOR (c, Maclean’s Music—Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)

O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (Ky). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $95,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.

Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Kee, Nov. 6

Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 12. 4) Jackie’s Warrior

From June through October, Jackie’s Warrior ran the table with four consecutive open-length wins that resonated as man-against-boys throttlings in which he controlled legit splits and often turned for home in hand while overmatched rivals were under full-out drives. Then came the Breeders’ Cup, in which this Maclean’s Music colt went off favored in the Juvenile and enjoyed a no-excuse stalking trip with an overly ambitious speed duel in front of him. “Jackie” got first run at those caving pacemakers, but was tag-teamed turning for home, first by the longest shot on the board before Essential Quality powered past to win. This $95,000 KEESEP colt ended up fourth, beaten only 3 1/4 lengths, so it was not the type of loss that will tarnish his overall body of work. But a defeat in his only two-turn attempt means distance questions will linger into 2021 until Jackie otherwise proves route races are within his wheelhouse. His 100 Beyer from winning the one-turn mile GI Champagne S. still clocks in as the only triple-digit Beyer earned by a juvenile in 2020.

5) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)

O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,700.

Last Start: 1st, Alw, FG, Dec. 19

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Proxy won a Dec. 19 NW2L allowance over 1 1/16 miles at the Fair Grounds that impressed more from a “how he did it” perspective rather than “how fast” (76 Beyer). Backed to 7-10 favoritism in a four-horse race, this Godolphin homebred brushed the gate, assumed command into the turn and onto the backstretch, then conceded the lead between calls. He reclaimed the top spot at the entrance to the final bend, then braced for a two-pronged attack from the closers. Proxy drifted out three times in upper- and mid-stretch under left-handed stick work, and one of his outward sways intimidated a rival while emboldening Proxy. Asked for another gear, this colt dug in stoutly, opening up to win by 2 1/4 lengths. Proxy raced on Lasix for both of his Fair Grounds wins after running second, beaten a neck, without it in his Monmouth Park debut. In this transition year for Lasix, he is the only horse within the Top 12 to have raced on it, and if he is to advance as a top-tier Derby candidate, he’ll have to forego that medication moving forward. This year’s Derby (and its major points-earning preps) are all being conducted Lasix-free.

6) SPEAKER’S CORNER (c, Street Sense–Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini)

O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-William Mott. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $43,290.

Last Start: 1st Mdn, Belmont, Oct. 11

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Speaker’s Corner is the third Godolphin homebred (for three different trainers) to crack the inaugural Top 12 list. This one’s a Street Sense bay out of a Bernardini mare conditioned by Bill Mott. Even though Mott’s firsters generally need a race or two before rounding into best efforts, this colt got pounded to odds-on favoritism for his Saratoga debut Sept. 7. A slow start and moderate rally left a slightly green Speaker’s Corner third, 6 3/4 lengths behind the winner that day, but start number two reconciled the advance hype. In a deep-on-paper Oct. 11 MSW over seven furlongs at Belmont, he got bumped at the break then rallied into swift splits (:22.04, :44.64), reeling in next-out winner–and subsequent ‘TDN Rising Star’–Caddo River (Hard Spun) with an impressive, grind-down stretch rally, earning Speaker’s Corner an 80 Beyer. In addition, the third-place finisher in that race came back to run second as the fave in a nine-furlong MSW, and the eighth-place finisher subsequently wired a MSW grass route.

7) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)

O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $525,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $34,200.

Last Start: 1st Mdn, Nov. 22, Del Mar

Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Possible for GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

The gaudy, 91 Beyer debut romp by ‘TDN Rising Star’ Life Is Good ($525,000 KEESEP) was so impressive in the eyes of the betting public that this Into Mischief bay closed at 5-1 odds in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager one week later, making him the top choice among the 22 individual betting interests beyond the “field” at 6-5. His scintillating 9 1/2-length scorcher at Del Mar was hallmarked by natural breakaway speed under a sitting-chilly ride by Mike Smith, and the runner-up just came back to win a MSW by 3 1/4 lengths on opening day at Santa Anita. After bulleting six furlongs in 1:10.60 (1/6) Sunday at Santa Anita, trainer Bob Baffert said, “We’re still debating whether Life Is Good will go in the [one-mile GIII] Sham S. or the seven-eighths [Grade II] San Vicente [S. Feb. 7].”

8) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)

O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (Ky). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wnlg ’18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $124,050.

Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., Kee, Nov. 6

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

During the two-day Breeders’ Cup meet at Keeneland, six dirt-track records were established and speed-centric horses accounted for 10 of 14 dirt winners. This $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt was one of them, and it’s logical to question whether Highly Motivated’s stalking 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist S. score was primarily the product of a quick track that played to his liking. But those thoughts are starting to be offset by how decently that undercard stakes is shaping up as a key race. It has now yielded three next-out wins from the second-, third-, and fifth-place horses, and they were all favorites (in the Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds, a Churchill open allowance, and a Louisiana-bred stakes at Fair Grounds, respectively). In the same key-race vein, Highly Motivated’s maiden win at Belmont Sept. 27 was 1 3/4 lengths better than Known Agenda (Curlin)’s runner-up effort, and that colt broke his maiden next out at 3-5 odds and then went on to run third in the Dec.5 GII Remsen S. So Highly Motivated has been keeping relatively classy company. But he’s yet to race beyond 6 1/2 furlongs, which is the chief reason his ranking wasn’t elevated a peg or two on this list.

9) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)

O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.

Last Start: 1st Alw, Churchill Downs, Nov. 28

Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Aiming for GIII Lecomte Stakes, FG, Jan. 16

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Juddmonte homebred Mandaloun, by Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare, is targeting the GIII Lecomte S. at 1 1/16 miles Jan. 16 at Fair Grounds in an attempt to run his record to 3-for-3. Dubbed a ‘TDN Rising Star’ off his Oct. 24 Keeneland MSW sprint win at six furlongs, Mandaloun added another furlong and powered home first in a Churchill allowance/ optional claimer under the lights late on the Nov. 28 card that featured all 2-year-old races. He loomed encouragingly with an outside bid after stalking the leaders, but Mandaloun had to be ridden with purpose between the five-sixteenths pole and the sixteenth pole to uncork his sustained half-mile rally. To his credit, he was quite responsive to that vigorous encouragement, winning by 1 3/4 lengths while punctuating his final half-furlong with a near-the-wire burst once he cleared his lone remaining rival.

10) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)

O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $76,092.

Last Start: 1st Msw, Churchill, Nov. 15

Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Caddo River closed at 27-1 odds in Pool 1 of the Derby Future Wager. By contrast, his sire, Hard Spun, went off at 24-1 in the Derby Sire Future Wager, meaning a discerning bettor could have had all of that stallion’s offspring instead of just one of them for a difference of only three points. Futures market inefficiencies aside, this Shortleaf Stable homebred merits respect based on his ability to withstand internal pace pressure as the runner-up in the “loaded” Belmont MSW won by No. 6-ranked Speaker’s Corner, which Caddo River then parlayed into a 9 1/2-length blowout in a one-turn Churchill MSW mile (83 Beyer) Nov. 15. This colt forged his way to the front and set demanding splits of :22.38 and :44.59 (albeit with a strong wind behind him on the backstretch), then torqued out smoothly for an unopposed, kept-to-task stretch run that got style points for looking poised and professional (as opposed to explosively flashy). Caddo River recently shipped from Churchill to Oaklawn, where he figures to earn a return trip to Louisville via the Hot Springs preps.

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban—Inclination, by Victory Gallop)

O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (Ky). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.

Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity,

3rd GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 18.

As a maiden, Keepmeinmind ran second and third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in the GI Breeders’ Futurity S. and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only 5 1/4 combined lengths. This Laoban bay then went off favored in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. under the lights at Churchill, rallying from last to collar a tiring leader. But Keepmeinmind’s Churchill score registered a touch on the tepid side numbers-wise (80 Beyer), and it clocked .54 seconds slower than 2-year-old fillies covered the same 1 1/16-miles distance in the GII Golden Rod S. one race earlier. Keepmeinmind is likely to attempt the Oaklawn prep path, which is where his run-all-day dam-sire Victory Gallop won the then-GIII Rebel S. and then-GII Arkansas Derby prior to running second in both the 1998 Derby and GI Preakness S. and winning the GI Belmont S.

12) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)

B-Heider Family Stables LLC (Ky). T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $950,000 yrl ’19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-0-0, $142,739.

Last Start: 5th GII GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., Churchill, Nov. 28

Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S.

Next Start: Uncommitted.

Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

King Fury, a $950,000 FTSAUG colt by Curlin, already owns two wins over the Churchill surface, and this Jan. 12 foal has a stamina-centric base with five races already at 1 1/16 miles (only one other Top 12 horse, Jackie’s Warrior, has made as many starts; four of them were one-turn contests). The best of King Fury’s routes was his Oct. 25 Street Sense S. score, in which this bay stalked, made an outside bid, and stayed on willingly to mow down an odds-on favorite who was gamely trying to re-rally. His seventh-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup 12 days later might have been too big an ask (although getting trapped on the far turn behind a spent speedster didn’t help), and trying new tactics as the blinkers-on pacemaker in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. generated only a fifth-place result. But that solid early-career foundation, attractive pedigree, and the capable patience of trainer Ken McPeek all signal that King Fury should not be eliminated from top-tier contention based on two subpar late-season races.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Brooklyn Strong (Wicked Strong): As a $5,000 OBSAPR buy, this Remsen S. upsetter has the potential to be the Cinderella story of 2021 provided his improvement arc continues upward.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Second in the Juvenile at 94-1, this colt ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) is a half to 2019 champ sprinter Mitole, but trainer Doug O’Neill said post-Breeders’ Cup “he’s built like a two-turn horse.”

Prate (Into Mischief): ‘TDN Rising Star’ dazzled in Fair Grounds sprint debut, which went faster than two stakes for juvenile males and fillies on same card. But trainer Brad Cox told DRF, “I think there’s a question mark if he’d stretch out” while indicating next race is likely another sprint.

Smiley Sobotka (Brody’s Cause): Trying stakes company off a MSW win, this $185,000 FTSAUG colt boldly repelled multiple bids to almost steal the Kentucky Jockey Club S.

Spielberg (Union Rags): His long drive won the GII Los Alamitos Futurity by a nose, but he was all out to reel in a tiring (but not quitting) 33-1 maiden.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Dec. 30 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Top-to-Bottom Derby Rundown

This week’s TDN Triple Crown feature examines the GI Kentucky Derby runners in detail from first to last.

1) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief–Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, MyRaceHorse Stable, Madaket Stables LLC & Starlight Racing. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-5-1-0, $2,871,200.

Front-running Authentic bested 14 Derby foes in admirable, take-the-heat fashion. But it was the way this $350,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay overcame a long season’s worth of focusing issues to finally put forth a polished, seasoned effort that truly stands out. Although Authentic might have given his connections an anxious moment or two when he came away flat-footed at the break from the outermost 15 stall, jockey John Velazquez didn’t rush the colt at all. In fact, the bent-necked Authentic had his head cocked out to the near-empty grandstand while ranging up widest to attain a prominent early placement. Ridden with restraint, Authentic hit the top just past the finish wire the first time, but he still had to safely clear three inside rivals through the first turn, costing him some ground. Onto the backstretch Velazquez maintained a margin of about a length while remaining several paths off the rail. Authentic really only had to put away one serious “first run” bid off the far turn, but that one challenger loomed menacingly in the form of legit Derby fave Tiz the Law (Constitution). Tiz got his nose in front at the quarter pole, but that affront only emboldened Authentic, who dug in determinedly and responded to left-handed stick work (this per trainer Bob Baffert’s instructions, Velazquez later said) despite shifting out for several strides before finishing with purpose inside the sixteenth pole. The Preakness now awaits the 5-for-6 Derby champ.

2) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 8-6-1-1, $2,615,300.

If you had your crystal ball fired up and had been able to correctly predict that Tiz the Law would enjoy a primo, trouble-free Derby stalking trip in third for most of the race while zeroing in with metronomic precision on a lone leader who had worked hard to attain that top spot, most backers would have jumped at the proposition that Tiz was more likely than not to have blown right by Authentic at the quarter pole. Yet despite having everything his own way, that’s not how it worked out for this $110,000 SARAUG Constitution colt. Although Tiz briefly seized the lead, he came figuratively unglued when Authentic punched back with authority, and that battle represented the first time in his career that Tiz encountered any serious resistance inside the eighth pole. You can parse this performance all you want, but trainer Barclay Tagg summed it up best in just a few words: “He ran a good race today. He got beat.” Jockey Manny Franco even admitted that “the trip was perfect–no excuse.” Tiz’s only two lifetime losses have now come at Churchill Downs nearly 10 months apart, but the track surface isn’t the likely culprit. Rather, having only four weeks between races (his shortest layoff yet) and the extreme difficulty of maintaining elite-level form for over a year now both look like the more legitimate toll-taking factors. Here’s hoping Tiz rebounds in his training and that a Preakness rematch is in the cards.

3) MR. BIG NEWS (c, Giant’s Causeway—Unappeased {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) O-Allied Racing Stable LLC; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $95,000 Ylg ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 8-2-1-1, $468,553.

At 46-1, Mr. Big News outran his odds while running true to his distance-centric pedigree (by Giant’s Causeway out of a Galileo mare). He broke alertly and settled willingly, and when the main body of eight runners peeled off from the pack into the first turn, jockey Gabriel Saez was content to track the action behind that bunch well in the clear and without being covered up. He edged closer into the far turn, and in several rapid strides just prior to the five-sixteenths pole blew by five fading horses all at once (although this move was legit on its own, it did appear more explosive than it actually was because of the backpedaling of the spent horses). In the stretch Mr. Big News couldn’t close the gap on the top two, who were unquestionably in a different league. His projected Beyer Speed Figure of 101 means that Mr. Big News has now topped his previous Beyer every single time out over eight career starts, which is something you don’t often see.

4) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-2-3-0, $532,200.

Honor A.P. was never in it to win it last Saturday. Yet considering how tactically adrift he was for the first mile of the race, his fourth-place effort is better than it might seem. “He spun out from the word go. Really did,” said jockey Mike Smith, who cited this $850,000 FTSAUG Honor Code ridgling’s inability to grab hold of the “deeper, cuppier” track as the chief obstacle to a better placing. He broke hesitantly and was allowed to lag near last for most of the trip before unwinding with a long-striding move through the far turn that left him parked way out in the 10 path for the home straight. But he didn’t pass a single horse in mid-stretch who was not already backing up. Honor A.P.’s Derby has a “too bad to be true” aura to it, and as the only horse to ever finish in front of Authentic (in the GI Santa Anita Derby), it’s reasonable to think he’s capable of a more spirited showing if and when they meet again.

5) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 6-2-1-2, $463,500.

Max Player inherited the dreaded one hole after a scratch, and this first-crop Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) got a decent schooling out of the experience while rallying nicely through traffic to snag fifth with a late spurt. Even before the field completed the first furlong, you could see Max was getting pelted with kickback while down inside, and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. guided him to the back of the pack to save ground through the first turn and onto the backstretch. As the field tightened up entering the far turn, Santana opted to move out rather than try to weave through traffic at the fence. But even being eight paths wide into the lane Max could still not avoid shifting off heels and having to maneuver for better positioning. When a clear hole did finally materialize, Max dove through with interest. That could be the “Ah-ha!” moment that signals advancement into the upper echelon of the sophomore ranks might not be as far off as it seems for this colt.

6) STORM THE COURT (c, Court Vision–My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run) O-Exline-Border Racing LLC & David A Bernsen LLC; B-Stepping Stone Farm (KY); T-Peter Eurton. Sales History: $5,000 Ylg ’18 FTKFEB; $60,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 10-2-1-3, $1,310,451.

If there’s a such thing as a sneaky-good sixth, Storm the Court ran it in the Derby. He was actually the between-calls leader first time through the homestretch, and although jockey Julien Leparoux opted not to slug it out on the front end with Authentic, he didn’t concede an inch at the fence positionally while transitioning to stalk mode. On the far turn, this $60,000 OBSAPR Court Vision bay (previously a $5,000 FTKFEB yearling) had four horses parked directly to his outside and one just behind him ratcheting up the mid-pack pressure, but Storm the Court still didn’t crack. By virtue of saving so much ground, the juvenile champ was able to re-bid and briefly fight for a share of third as the field swung for home, but he could not sustain that momentum and ran on respectably despite being spent. Ten furlongs on dirt is probably not his thing, but this was still a better-than-it-looks performance.

7) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 11-2-2-2, $397,150.

Stout-pedigreed Enforceable made his early-career mark as a deep closer who didn’t mind taking the overland route, and he was bet down to 22-1 in the Derby primarily on the angle that he’d be motoring late when many others would be struggling with the final furlong. Thus it was a surprise to see him involved in the early jostling for the lead, mixing it up in the front vanguard. He essentially followed Storm the Court’s rail trip while looking comfortable covered up, and he vacated the fence turning for home only to be dropped back down inside after finding neither the running room nor the spark to sustain a serious deep-stretch bid.

8) NY TRAFFIC (c, Cross Traffic–Mamie Reilly, by Graeme Hall)
O-John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing & Paul Braverman. B-Brian Culnan (NY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $27,000 RNA 2yo ’19 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 10-2-3-2, $565,470.

Ny Traffic veered out at the break and then was sent for speed, cutting back inward in front of five other rivals in jockey Paco Lopez’s all-costs zeal to have this gray near the head of affairs. This $27,000 EASMAY RNA by Cross Traffic attended the pace outside of Authentic, but at no time did he ratchet up the pressure to the point where it made the frontrunner uncomfortable. Ny Traffic briefly sparred with Tiz the Law when the favorite engaged him three-eighths out, but Tiz swatted Ny Traffic away handily, and this colt backpedaled out of contention while shifting outward and contributing to the logjam of fading horses in the wider paths of the upper stretch. In the aftermath of the race, trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. reported Ny Traffic lost a front shoe and had some cuts on his legs.

9) NECKER ISLAND (c, Hard Spun—Jenny’s Rocket, by Mr. Greeley) O-Raymond Daniels, Wayne Scherr & Will Harbut Racing LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Chris Hartman. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 11-2-0-3, $199,730.

The game plan for blinkers-off Necker Island was to be close to the pace along the inside. Instead he was next to last for most of his Derby trip and made a belated far-turn run while 10 wide into the stretch. “Outclassed” was trainer Chris Hartman’s post-race summation.

10) MAJOR FED (c, Ghostzapper—Bobby’s Babe, by Smart Strike) O-Lloyd Madison Farms IV LLC; B-Lloyd Madison IV (KY); T-Greg Foley. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 7-1-2-1, $215,600.

This Ghostzapper homebred out of a Smart Strike mare was boxed and blocked the first time through the stretch and into the first turn, and thereafter held a mid-pack stalking position well enough to be fourth between calls at the five-sixteenths pole. He’d had enough by the final furlong, though. “He had no business being up there where he was,” trainer Greg Foley said Sunday. “Bumper cars going into that first turn. I mean, he was a length off the lead. I don’t know if he was too fresh and broke like that and was down in there. That was the end of our chances. Everything had to go good for us. It didn’t. He came back good. He looks fine. He ate up. We’ll regroup in a little bit. He’s eligible for a [NW1X] allowance. That’s about where he’ll show up next. Go from there. He’ll look pretty good in that.”

11) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo) O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-4-1-1, $323,310.

Sole Volante was guided down to the inside shortly after the break but he ate quite a bit of kickback when he should have been settling. He rode the rail in last for most of the trip and was picking off stragglers late with 13 Derby horses all parked to his outside in the stretch. “He obviously took a lot of dirt in his face, but he scoped clean,” said co-owner Andie Biancone, who is also the assistant to her father, trainer Patrick Biancone, and the regular exercise rider for the gelding. “He’ll probably get a break now and maybe go back to the turf.”

12) WINNING IMPRESSION (g, Paynter—Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled’s Song) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Pearl Racing; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Dallas Stewart. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP; $77,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISP, 10-1-1-2, $98,552.

Winning Impression got hustled straight from the gate but quickly had Ny Traffic and Tiz the Law blow by him with better bursts of speed. This Paynter gray opted out of the early crush into the far turn, settling willingly at the rail to lead the second flight as the Derby broke into eight tightly packed horses in the first group and seven others scattered behind with a bit more breathing room between them. But Winning Impression was having trouble holding his spot into the far turn, and he dropped back to last before passing three laggards late in the lane.

13) MONEY MOVES (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Citizen Advocate, by Proud Citizen) O-Robert V LaPenta & Bortolazzo Stable; B-Whitehall Lane Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-0, $67,400.

This $975,000 OBSAPR Candy Ride (Arg) colt was the surprise bet-down in the Derby, going off at 13-1 while light on experience (just three career races) but long on potential. He kicked out of the gate well from post five, but fought an early rating hold as jockey Javier Castellano scrambled to get good position within the top tier. Money Moves raced well despite being hemmed in between rivals for most of his backstraight journey, and was never more than four or five lengths out of the hunt. But he was punchless on the far turn and had called it a day before the quarter pole. Given the ambitious placement at this early juncture of his career, you can expect Money Moves got quite a bit of valuable experience out of his Derby journey.

14) ATTACHMENT RATE (c, Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex) O-Jim Bakke & Gerald Isbister; B-Mr & Mrs C Oliver Iselin (VA); T-Dale Romans. Sales History: $100,000 Wlg ’17 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 9-1-3-1, $143,732.

This Virginia-bred ($100,000 KEENOV, $200,000 KEESEP) broke with the pace but immediately had to adjust outward to stay off the heels of the inward-swerving Ny Traffic and (to a lesser extent) Tiz the Law. Shifting outside, he was four wide through the first bend and onto the backstretch. Although he didn’t lose touch, Attachment Rate never truly fired either, and when it was obvious he would wind up well beaten jockey Joe Talamo did not hammer on him for more run late in the lane.

15) SOUTH BEND (c, Algorithms—Sandra’s Rose, by Old Trieste) O-Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch & Pantofel Stable LLC; B-Highclere Inc (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales History: $47,000 RNA Ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $70,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 13-3-2-2, $390,114.

South Bend couldn’t find a tactical spot to settle the first time through the stretch. This $70,000 OBSMAR Algorithms bay (RNA’d for $47,000 at FKTJUL) backed off a bit, and then had the most uncovered trip of anyone in the Derby through the first turn and onto the backstretch, with no one directly in front, behind, or to his sides. He rallied a bit three-eighths out, but jockey Tyler Gaffalione had to go five wide to try and gain any ground with this brief burst of momentum. South Bend was actually making mild headway toward a minor placing in deep stretch when the hit a figurative wall at the eighth pole, capitulating to last.

The post TDN Top-to-Bottom Derby Rundown appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Rankings for September 2

Here are the final TDN GI Kentucky Derby rankings after an entertaining, intriguing, and unusually long buildup to the first Saturday in September. The field is listed in “likeliest winner” order.

The Top 10…

1) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 7-6-0-1, $2,015,300.
Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20, 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 28, 1st GI Champagne S., 1st GIII Holy Bull S., GP, Feb. 1, 3rd GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 30. Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 372.

Tiz the Law is a Kentucky Derby standout no matter how you parse his credentials. He’s 6-for-7 lifetime and undefeated in four starts at age three. He’s thrice run Beyer Speed Figures at or above the elite-level 100 mark. He’s already won at the Derby distance of 10 furlongs and that victory was a resounding trouncing of the GI Runhappy Travers S. field at Saratoga. Most importantly, his progression into a mature, confident, aggressor who carries himself with swagger is evident in the visually impressive nature of his races. This $110,000 SARAUG Constitution colt makes his own breaks and controls the tempo of his races from an imposing stalking position, and he’s never been in a serious stretch fight beyond the eighth pole while pasting the competition by open lengths (never fewer than three). Detractors will point to the fact that his only career loss came over the Churchill Downs surface, but that argument is a reach. Tiz created his own trouble in that third-place try in a sea of slop last November in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., and he’s long since advanced in his development into a colt who relishes throttling his competition. Post 17 shouldn’t be a problem. Tiz is an alert breaker who knows how to seize prime early positioning and he’ll have a long run through the home straight to settle just behind the anticipated speed. The only reason not to bet on him will be the prohibitive price. Tiz the Law has had an amazingly long run of luck, maintaining his form for well over a year for an old-school trainer and ownership group that underscores fun and doing right by their horses, so he’s an easy favorite to root for.

2) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-3-0, $382,200.
Last Start: 2nd Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby June 6, 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140.

This $850,000 FTSAUG Honor Code ridgling figures to be a far better contender in the Derby than he appeared in his not-fully-cranked second at 1-5 odds when shortening up to 1 1/16 miles in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. He has a long stride, a keen mind and an unruffled demeanor, and the projected (more up-tempo) pace dynamic of the Derby figures to suit both his pedigree and target-oriented running style. For a launching-off point for what Honor A.P. might be capable of on Saturday, reference his 102-Beyer GI Santa Anita Derby score on June 6, in which he methodically wore down the pacemakers and fluidly covered ground like he wanted more of it. Honor A.P. does take a while to torque up to his main attacking gear, but he’s also been described by trainer John Shirreffs as being light on his feet, which is an attribute that is usually a necessity in any 18-horse scrum.

3) KING GUILLERMO (c, Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band)
O-Victoria’s Ranch. B-Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. & Marengo Investments (KY). T-Juan Avila. Sales History: $90,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-1, $340,350.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, May 2
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, 3rd Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 90.

King Guillermo’s 127-day layoff quest to win the Derby doesn’t strike me as outlandish as it might seem to some traditionalists. This colt was intentionally kept out of hard training in the early part of summer after running back-to-back impressive races when winning the GII Tampa Bay Derby and grinding out a gutsy second in the faster division of the split GI Arkansas Derby. Having plenty of down time was always the prescribed plan for this Uncle Mo bay ($90,000 RNA KEESEP, $150,000 OBSAPR), who runs best when fresh. The filly Regret won the 1915 Derby off a 259-day break, and Sir Barton won the 1919 Derby off a 238-day rest. Since 1929, the longest winning layoff has been 42 days, equaled by Needles in 1956 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. What is a little concerning is that trainer Juan Carlos Avila has been nursing a tepid 1-for-25 record over the past two months. And jockey Samy Camacho is booked on no other Derby day mounts at Churchill, which means that the rookie Derby rider will be sitting in the jocks’ room for hours before his big-race debut without the benefit of being able to ride over the track and (more importantly) focus on another race as a distraction from the pressure. Still, having said all of that, King Guillermo’s 20-1 morning line represents considerable value if you can actually snag that price.

4) THOUSAND WORDS (c, Pioneerof the Nile—Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy) O-Albaugh Family Stables & Spendthrift Farm. B-Hardacre Farm (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-4-1-0, $327,000.
Last Start: 1st Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity, LRC, Dec. 7, 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 83.

In a Derby prep season extended to 10 months because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Thousand Words is the epitome of a comebacking contender. He was the No.1 Derby prospect on this list from December through early March, then slid off the grid for three starts between March and July (in two of those races he just looked uninterested, and in the sloppy Oaklawn S. he clearly didn’t like taking wet kickback). But this million-dollar KEESEP colt’s 104-Beyer tally in the Shared Belief S. over Honor A.P. stamped him as a resurgent player for a trainer known to produce Derby winners (even when they’re not favorites). Thousand Words doesn’t resonate as a “Wow!” horse, but one talent that is decidedly in his favor is his oft-demonstrated ability to fight through tenacious early pace battles while still being able to repulse serious stretch challenges. Not too many horses in this year’s Derby field have demonstrated that skill, and it will suit this Pioneerof the Nile colt well if he can handle the stretch to 10 furlongs.

5) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
10-2-2-2, $367,150.
Last Start: 4th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 18; 3rd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, Oct. 5, 2nd GII Risen Star S. Div. 1, FG, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 43.

Enforceable is the long-shot play of the Derby, and a must inclusion for all exotics. Admittedly, it’s tough to make a case for him based on results on paper alone. This $775,000 KEESEP RNA was fifth in the GII Louisiana Derby, then ran fourth in the July 11 GII Toyota Blue Grass S., his lone summer prep for Louisville. But he was wide on both turns in the Blue Grass behind dominant one-two finishers who both came back to win stakes in impressive fashion, and this Mark Casse trainee has now had six weeks of conditioning over the Churchill surface. Knowing that he’s coming in fresh with run-all-day bloodlines (by Tapit out of a Dixie Union mare), dismiss Enforceable at your own peril. He is going to fly under the radar betting wise, and he is highly likely to be flying by some of the more stamina-challenged pacemakers late in the lane on Saturday.

6) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief–Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred Hertrich III, John D. Fielding & Golconda Stables. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-1-0, $1,011,200.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18.
Accomplishments Include: 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7; 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 4, 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, June 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 200.

Considering that more preps were added to the calendar to qualify for the Derby, it’s a bit odd that only three entrants in this 18-horse field–Tiz the Law, Thousand Words and Authentic–are sporting victories in their last races. This $350,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay has high-level pace-pressing ability, and his outermost gate draw makes it a near-cinch that he’ll be sent for speed to attain prominent positioning. But it’s not guaranteed that Authentic is going to abide by the strategic wishes of new jockey John Velazquez and trainer Bob Baffert. He’s had adverse issues leaving the starting stalls in three of his five races and his stretch antics by now are well-documented, underscored by his caving-then-saving final eighth in the GI TVG.com Haskell S. in which Authentic nearly snatched defeat from the jaws of victory by losing focus. Ability beyond nine furlongs remains an open question (because having multiple Grade II-winning sprinter Mr. Greeley as his dam-sire does give Authentic’s pedigree a short-distance slant). But it’s also not difficult to envision a scenario in which the Churchill strip comes up speed-favoring and Authentic gets bold on a loose lead.

7) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo)
O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-4-1-1, $323,310.
Last Start: 6th GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 8, 1st Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 2nd GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 7.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

Sole Volante has more upside than people might perceive coming into the Derby. This $6,000 KEESEP and $20,000 OBSAPR Karakontie pinhook will be firing fresh (78-day respite) after reportedly not liking the track in the Belmont S., and trainer Patrick Biancone backed this gelding off from deep-summer preps to instead leg up with a series of turf works at Palm Meadows in Florida. Sole Volante has already run four 92-plus Beyers on dirt, and it’s crucial to point out that he earned those numbers over two tracks–Gulfstream and Tampa–that are historically not conducive to off-the-tailgate running styles like his. This is a light-bodied stayer who could be in the hunt well into the final furlong of the Derby. Sole Volante’s dam only won once, but it was over 14 furlongs in England.

8) NECKER ISLAND (c, Hard Spun—Jenny’s Rocket, by Mr. Greeley) O-Raymond Daniels, Wayne Scherr & Will Harbut Racing LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Chris Hartman. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 10-2-0-3, $199,730.
Last Start: 3rd Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 1.
Accomplishments include: 3rd GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Necker Island, a $100,000 claim three starts back, owns Churchill wins over both a fast and a sloppy surface, but those two victories were last autumn at the start of his career when one-turn miles and seven-furlong sprints seemed to be his sweet spot. Although this Hard Spun colt hasn’t been able to break past the 86-87 Beyer plateau his last four starts, he was facing some talented winners in Art Collector (Bernardini) and Maxfield (Street Sense). Necker Island’s third in the GIII Indiana Derby is actually quite a bit more impressive than it appears on paper: he stumbled at the break, got hooked wide on both turns, then got first run at the pacemaker before hanging in admirably behind a winner who shaved 0.17 seconds off the nine-furlong track record.

9) NY TRAFFIC (c, Cross Traffic–Mamie Reilly, by Graeme Hall)
O-John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing & Paul Braverman. B-Brian Culnan (NY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $27,000 RNA 2yo ’19 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-2-3-2, $565,470.
Last Start: 2nd GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18
Accomplishments Include: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 21, 2nd GIII Matt Winn S., CD, May 23, 3rd GII Risen Star S. Div. 2, FG, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110.

In four graded stakes preps this season, the 2-for-9 Ny Traffic has run three seconds and a third, and he hasn’t been beaten by more than 1 1/2 lengths in any of those efforts. But this $27,000 EASMAY Cross Traffic gray hasn’t won a stakes yet, and his only two lifetime wins were a Parx MSW and a Gulfstream allowance/optional claimer. Yet he has a hard-trying, overachieving way of going, and he was barely nosed out of a Haskell S. upset by 3-5 fave Authentic. This colt has experience at nine furlongs (twice) and 1 3/16 miles, and generally outruns his odds. Is he the “sleeper” New York-bred in the Derby with fellow Empire Stater Tiz the Law drawing all the attention and betting action?

10) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 5-2-1-2, $373,500.
Last Start: 3rd GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 1, 3rd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

This first-crop Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) was a commendable third in both the Belmont S. and the Travers S., but he wasn’t in the same league as dominant winner Tiz the Law in either contest. We still haven’t seen a big breakout race from this slow-but-steady learner, and his connections have gambled on a trainer change for the Derby. Steve Asmussen took over from Linda Rice after the Travers, and while that’s probably too short a time window for a new conditioning regimen to produce immediate results, Max might awaken under the aggressive handling of new jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., who rides quite a bit more assertively than the strong-finishing, but more patient Joel Rosario.

The Rest of the Field…

11) SOUTH BEND (c, Algorithms—Sandra’s Rose, by Old Trieste) O-Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch & Pantofel Stable LLC; B-Highclere Inc (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales History: $47,000 RNA Ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $70,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 12-3-2-2, $390,114.
Last Start: 4th GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Equineline PPs.

Trainer Bill Mott saddled 65-1 Country House (Lookin At Luck) in the Derby last year and ended up getting moved up from second to win via DQ. This year his trainee South Bend figures to be in the same stratospheric odds range. This $70,000 OBSMAR Algorithms bay (RNA’d for $47,000 at FKTJUL) began his career a perfect three-for-three but hasn’t won since. At 12 starts, he’s the most experienced starter in this year’s edition. He rated from last to get fourth in the Travers S. (first start under Mott’s care), so he already has 10-furlong experience. And at age two, he ran a crackerjack race over the Churchill surface, winning the one-turn-mile Street Sense S. while only a hundredth of a second off the stakes record. Not an overt win threat, but definitely fodder for exotics.

12) MR. BIG NEWS (c, Giant’s Causeway—Unappeased {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) O-Allied Racing Stable LLC; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $95,000 Ylg ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW, 7-2-1-0, $168,553
Last Start: 6th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Equineline PPs.

With a distance-centric pedigree (by Giant’s Causeway out of a Galileo mare), you can see why 10 furlongs could very well be within the wheelhouse for Mr. Big News. The exclamation point in his past performance block is the 46-1 half-length splashdown win he earned when relishing a sealed/sloppy Hot Springs track in the Apr. 11 Oaklawn S. But Mr. Big News was drifting out in that victory, and only one of the dozen horses he bested that day (Thousand Words) has proven to be of Kentucky Derby caliber. Although his career-top Beyer of 88 will not be good enough to win the Derby, it’s worth noting that this colt has never regressed in terms of speed numbers, earning Beyers that have moved upward for each of his seven lifetime tries.

This $975,000 OBSAPR Candy Ride (Arg) colt is light on experience (just three races), but high on potential based on a pair of one-turn Gulfstream wins to kick off his career and an eye-catching 98-Beyer second at Saratoga over nine furlongs. He’s run well as a pace-pressing threat and has overcome two stutter-step starts leaving the gate, but being in the hunt over 10 furlongs in just his second start back since March is still a major ask at this point in his career. But history could be on his side: dam-sire Proud Citizen was also a late consideration for the 2002 Derby, yet he ran a better-than-expected second at 23-1 odds.

As a May 18 foal, Attachment Rate has no doubt benefitted from the September rescheduling of the Derby. But with only a maiden win to his credit, this Virginia-bred Hard Spun colt ($100,000 KEENOV; $200,000 KEESEP) is facing a tall task coming off a best-of-the-rest second behind Art Collector in the Ellis Park Derby. Prior to that, he had trip trouble in three consecutive stakes yet managed to improve his Beyers in each of those efforts.

15) FINNICK THE FIERCE (g, Dialed In—Southern Classic, by Southern Image) O-Arnaldo Monge & Rey Hernandez; B-Paige Jillian Blue Sky Stables (KY); T-Rey Hernandez. Lifetime Record: GISP, 9-2-1-2, $191,290. Last Start: 7th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11 Equineline PPs

Finnick the Fierce hasn’t dodged any heavy hitters in his preps, and he’s run some respectable races at long odds while picking up a handful checks for minor awards. Most notably, he is one of only two horses to ever finish in front of Tiz the Law, running an 87-1 second in the Kentucky Jockey Club S. over a waterlogged Churchill surface. But Finnick’s only true win was a five-furlong sprint at age two at Indiana Downs in a four-horse field (he also got moved up via DQ at Oaklawn going 1 1/16 miles). Although co-owner and trainer Rey Hernandez noted this Dialed In gelding has thrice run well from post one, the rail draw is traditionally a disadvantage in the crowded Derby, and it’s even more complicated for Finnick because he lost his right eye as a baby (congenital cataract) and won’t be able to see the wall of horses to his immediate outside.

16) STORM THE COURT (c, Court Vision–My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run) O-Exline-Border Racing LLC & David A Bernsen LLC; B-Stepping Stone Farm (KY); T-Peter Eurton. Sales History: $5,000 Ylg ’18 FTKFEB; $60,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 9-2-1-3, $1,310,451.
Last Start: 2nd GIII La Jolla H., DMR, Aug. 9.
Equineline PPs.

Storm the Court enters the Derby winless in 10 months, with his last score being the 45-1 shocker in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile that he has been unable to replicate. Although this $60,000 OBSAPR bay (bought for $5,000 as a FTKFEB yearling) doesn’t have a “traditional” Derby-horse pedigree, hints of it are there. Sire Court Vision, although known as a MGISW turfer who capped his career with a win in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile, did start his career on dirt with wins in the GIII Iroquois S. and GII Remsen S. at age two, and he started in both the Kentucky Derby and GI Travers S. at three. Dam-sire Tejano Run was a rugged (8-4-6 from 21 starts) MGSW/MGISP galloper who ran second in the 1995 Derby.

17) MAJOR FED (c, Ghostzapper—Bobby’s Babe, by Smart Strike) O-Lloyd Madison Farms IV LLC; B-Lloyd Madison IV (KY); T-Greg Foley. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 6-1-2-1, $215,600.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8
Equineline PPs.

Major Fed is one of three Derby entrants who have yet to win beyond the maiden ranks. This Ghostzapper homebred out of a Smart Strike mare has earned two seconds in Grade II and Grade III stakes, and his best efforts have come from mid-pack stalking trips. He has a habit of getting parked out wide on the turns, so trying to tuck in to save ground from post five might be his best shot.

18) WINNING IMPRESSION (g, Paynter—Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled’s Song) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Pearl Racing; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Dallas Stewart. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP; $77,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 9-1-1-2, $98,552.
Last Start: 7th Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs.

Winning Impression has the makings of a mudlark. Unfortunately for him, the advance forecast for Derby day is clear and sunny. He’s crossed the finish wire first both times he’s raced over the slop (losing one via DQ) but has been beaten double-digit lengths in a pair of seventh-place efforts in two summer stakes preps since then. His sire, Paynter, was second in the 2012 GI Belmont S. over 1 1/2 miles, so there is a glimmer of hope that 10 furlongs in the Derby could be a move-up for him.

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