Tag: Derby Top 12

TDN Sophomore Top 20: Separating Contenders From Pretenders

All the nine-furlong prep races have been run, and the Triple Crown-caliber players have stepped forward and established themselves. We're three weeks away from a campaign's worth of enjoyable chaos sorting itself into some semblance of order, which means there's still plenty of time before you have to lock in your GI Kentucky Derby horse. Or maybe you'd prefer to wait for the GI Preakness S., like several top sophomores might end up doing.

1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

On Apr. 2, three days after Muth's two-length score in the GI Arkansas Derby, trainer Bob Baffert confirmed that this 4-for-6 'TDN Rising Star' is Baltimore-bound for the May 18 GI Preakness S.

“My plan's always been, if he ran well [in Arkansas], we're just pointing him for the Preakness,” Baffert told the Oaklawn media team.

Then the very next day, Muth's owner, Zedan Racing Stables, filed a lawsuit in a Kentucky court with the aim of overturning Churchill Downs's corporate ban of Baffert so that Muth (and possibly other horses trained by Baffert) could run in the Kentucky Derby.

We'll leave the ongoing debate about Baffert's Derby eligibility to the judge for the purposes of this writeup.

The assessment still stands that this son of Good Magic ($190,000 KEESEP, $2 million OBSMAR) is the most consistent and reliable contender at the top of the crop, and he looms as a major threat to blossom into a dominant divisional force. Muth's chief attribute is speed-oriented athleticism fused with a straightforward way of doing whatever has to be done to win.

Baffert said Muth's trip from Santa Anita to Oaklawn “was good for him. First time shipping was important. He ran well. Everything went smoothly for him. He looked great in the stretch. Distance is not going to be a problem for him, so that was very encouraging. A mile and an eighth, I've always felt, really starts to separate them. It was a very tough, competitive race.”

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-3-1-0, $918,000. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Blue Grass S.

In Saturday's GI Blue Grass S., 'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) built up serious momentum with one of his customary off-the-tailgate runs to mow down the competition.

Although he's still not the most polished version of the racehorse his potential and pedigree suggest he will be, this $2.3 million FTSAUG sale-topper has enough raw, off-pace power to establish his status as the top-ranked closer in his class.

After being reluctant to load into the outermost post in front of a lively Keeneland crowd that caught his attention, this Chad Brown trainee broke without incident and was dropped down next to the fence at the back of the pack by Tyler Gaffalione. With stablemate Top Conor (Twirling Candy) establishing an ambitious tempo up front, Sierra Leone waited patiently at the rear, settling unto a rhythmic stride before beginning to unfurl five furlongs out.

Gaffalione sliced him between two rivals nearing the far turn, then popped outside to pick off the mid-pack stragglers. Although still exhibiting a tendency to lean in during his stretch runs like he's shown since age two, Sierra Leone did respond to being roused, and you get the feeling he would have easily shouldered aside any rival who dared get in his way. He won by 1 1/2 lengths and finished up the final sixteenth with his ears pricked forward, indicating he was eager for more.

Sierra Leone's 98 Beyer was a tricky fig to make considering there was only one other main-track route race at Keeneland that afternoon.

Despite being visually arresting, the timing of Sierra Leone's finish was on the tepid side. While the early part of the Blue Grass featured revved-up opening quarter-mile splits of :23.15 and :23.33, Sierra Leone closed ground through a final furlong clocked in :13.43. That's the slowest last eighth among all nine points-awarding Derby preps run at 1 1/8 miles in 2023-24.

3) FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (c, Reel Steel {Jpn}–Forever Darling, by Congrats). O-Susumu Fujita; B-Northern Racing; T-Yoshito Yahagi. Sales History: ¥98,000,000 Ylg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-5-0-0, $2,049,451. Last start: WON Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby.

The 5-for-5 Forever Young (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) raced outermost to win the Feb. 24 one-turn mile G3 Saudi Derby with a long, well-timed drive. He was then parked in the four path on both turns to prevail in the G2 UAE Derby over 1900 meters Mar. 30.

For the most part, those ground-conceding tactics have been by design to keep Forever Young from being pelted by kickback from horses in front of him. His connections are on record as saying that the colt dislikes the dirt spray, and he was equipped with a sort of facemask (like blinkers without the cups) in his last race at Meydan.

Is Forever Young's aversion to kickback a reason to discount his chances in the Kentucky Derby? Probably not if you otherwise like his chances. In any given 20-horse Derby, we end up hearing plenty of post-race comments from the trainers of also-rans stating how their horses just couldn't handle the kickback. Some horses persevere through it, some don't and some are race-to-race about how they handle it.

Plus, it isn't like Forever Young, who sold for the equivalent of $720,603 at the JRHA Select Yearling and Foal sale, has never dealt with dirt before. He won three times in Japan at age two despite being in spots where he was forced to take at least some kickback.

In his Oct. 14 maiden win, Forever Young was buried behind the first-flight wall of horses before bursting through near the inside rail. Against stakes company Nov. 3, he was covered up toward the rear for most of the trip before tipping outside to win going away. And on Dec. 13, Forever Young raced just off the heels of the pacemaker before punching past on the far turn to romp by seven lengths.

4) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-3-0-1, $1,703,850. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby.

With this past weekend's final nine-furlong prep races yielding wins by two stalkers and one closer, Fierceness's stock upticked because he now looms as the most legitimate speed threat among horses pointing for the Derby.

But bettors in the latest pool for the Kentucky Derby Future Wager–which closed Saturday prior to any of those stakes being run–apparently didn't need to know that bit of pace information before staunchly backing Fierceness. He was established as the 5-2 favorite, a pre-race price that could end up being lower than the 2-year-old champ's actual mutuel odds 3 1/2 weeks from now on Derby Day.

This Repole Stable homebred by City of Light heads to Louisville off a hammer-dropping, 13 1/4-length pasting of an underwhelming GI Curlin Florida Derby field. The impressive 110 Beyer Speed Figure he earned is five points faster than any other number put up by a sophomore so far this year.

But realists will legitimately question the figure's face value considering Fierceness established an all-his-own-way cadence without having to fight hard for the lead or repulse any serious stretch bids.

Eight of the last 10 horses to cross the finish wire first in the Derby have raced on or near the lead. If Fierceness can establish control early, he avoids a lot of potential trouble simply by being out ahead of the first-turn scrum that is an inherent risk in any 20-horse Derby.

Fierceness | Benoit

5) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

Track Phantom has been sporting blinkers in the mornings at Churchill Downs in preparation for wearing them for the first time in the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Steve Asmussen told Daily Racing Form's Marcus Hersch last week that “The blinkers are for what he did from the quarter pole to the wire last time, not what he does in the morning.”

Asmussen was referring to this $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road setting a moderate pace in the GII Louisiana Derby, then fading to fourth in deep stretch.

Track Phantom has won three of seven starts, all at a mile or longer, and he consistently breaks well enough to lead the pack, despite often getting disadvantaged by outside draws. He has experience in fighting off rivals in the stretch, and even though this colt isn't always on the winning end, he has gained valuable experience.

According to DRF's Formulator tool, Asmussen's win percentage with all starters over the past five years is 18%. His 205 trainees adding blinkers for the first time during that time frame won 15% of the time. On five occasions in the past five years, Asmussen has tried first-time blinkers on a Grade I starter. None have won, with the best finish among them a second by Disarm (Gun Runner) in the 2023 GI Travers S.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-2-0, $552,275. Last start: 4th in the GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6

Dornoch's punchless fourth in the Blue Grass S. is a little easier to make sense of moving forward knowing his connections weren't satisfied with the experiment of rating him off the pace, and that trainer Danny Gargan plans on changing tactics back to letting this colt freewheel on the front end in the Derby.

This $325,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic, who is a full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, broke running from post four, but Luis Saez had a handful trying to keep his colt under wraps around the first turn. Dornoch was pegged down at the rail in fourth for most of his trip and had only a mild response when asked to pick it up around the far bend. He briefly ran up on the heels of a rival in front of him three-sixteenths from home, then drifted out towards the onrushing Sierra Leone, who blew by Dornoch in upper stretch with zero resistance.

“He got in there behind,” Gargan said. “It's his first time really getting a lot of dirt like that, he resented it a little bit early, Luis said. He said he kind of ran away from the horses. [Dornoch was] a little bit stuck in there. Next time, we'll break him out of [the gate on the lead] and keep his face clean, and he'll run better next time. There's no pressure now. We're going to go over [to Gargan's hometown of Louisville] and have fun.”

7) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,050,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $406,800. Last start: 2nd in the GI Santa Anita Derby Apr. 6.

Imagination was a narrowly-beaten second in Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby. The fact that he forced the issue through a quick opening quarter (:22.72), went after the leader on the far turn, then held the lead for most of the stretch while taking constant pressure from eventual winner Stronghold (Ghostzapper) gives his effort an edge in terms of performance under duress–even though he didn't come out on the winning end of the photo.

In fact, it's now three straight route races in which this $1.05-million KEESEP colt by Into Mischief has hooked up in prolonged late-race fights. One was a win in the Grade II San Felipe S., the two others were neck losses.

“We jumped good and we had a good pace,” said jockey Franke Dettori, noting that pressure from an outside rival turning onto the backstretch meant he pushed Imagination “a little bit earlier than I wanted to.

“In the stretch I was vulnerable for a closer,” Dettori said. “When [Stronghold] passed us, my horse kept fighting back. We were head and head, and he was too strong for me down the line.”

Imagination is now 2-4-0 from six lifetime starts. Trainer Bob Baffert has not publicly declared next-race plans.

8) Just a Touch (c, Justify-Touching Beauty, by Tapit) O-Qatar Racing LLC, Resolute Racing & Marc Detampel; B-Don Alberto Corp. (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $170,000 RNA '22 KEESEP; $125,000 yrl '22 FTKOCT; $300,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $281,700. Last start: 2nd in GI Blue Grass S. Apr. 6

The second-place effort by Just a Touch in Saturday's Blue Grass S. was commendable on several levels.

This son of Justify ($170,000 RNA KEESEP, $125,000 FTKOCT, $300,000 OBSAPR) gets credit for attending a fast pace, then wresting control of the lead from the three-sixteenths marker until just before the sixteenth pole. When Sierra Leone torqued by him, Just A Touch was tiring but not folding, and he galloped out more or less on even terms with the winner.

That performance rates additional credibility considering it was only the third lifetime start and first race around two turns for Just a Touch. And this is a colt who also won't hit his third birthday until the day after the Kentucky Derby.

“The pace was a bit quicker than I thought it would be,” said jockey Florent Geroux. “Turning for home, I thought I had it, but was just taken down by Sierra Leone. My horse had a good finish to be second. He ran a good race against really good horses.”

Trainer Brad Cox explained that Just a Touch is “going to have to move forward in the next four weeks. Colts can do that. If he moves forward, he will be able to compete in the Derby.”

9) RESILIENCE (c, Into Mischief-Meadowsweet, by Smart Strike) O-Emily Bushnell & Ric Waldman; B-Pam & Martin Wygod (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-1, $494,630. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Wood Memorial S.

Resilience, an Into Mischief colt out of a Smart Strike mare, leapfrogged into Derby relevance with a 2 1/4-length stalking victory (90 Beyer) in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct.

Off at 9-2 odds and adding blinkers for the first time, this Bill Mott trainee broke fluidly from the rail under John Velazquez, then conceded the lead while in a touch tight at the fence through the clubhouse turn.

Resilience enjoyed a no-excuse, ground-saving trip behind sparring 52-1 and 80-1 shots on the front end. Velazquez edged him off the rail 4 1/2 furlongs out, then commenced to chipping away at the leaders' margin through the far bend before collaring those spent rivals at the quarter pole.

There was a spill in upper stretch behind Resilience, but it did not appear to hamper any serious threats to his lead. This colt willingly stayed on late to outfinish 106-1 and 38-1 long shots.

“We broke really well, which was what we wanted to do,” Velazquez said. “He got a little bit aggressive, more than I wanted to in the first part. Then I put him out and he kind of relaxed better on the outside of horses. The reason we put blinkers on is because he's kind of hesitant in passing the horses. So, I kind of engaged him a little bit early to see if he'd pass horses and he passed them. Then I was like, 'Oh, man I might've broken a little too soon.' Then he just kept me busy down the lane.”

Resilience | Sarah Andrew

10) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

This Constitution colt ($575,000 KEESEP) is now one breeze into a series of four planned workouts before starting in the Derby, where he's likely to be mid-priced in the betting and expected to close from off the pace.

“He's settled in nicely since we shipped him back to Churchill from Fair Grounds,” trainer Brad Cox said after training on Friday. “He was impressive [winning] from that far back in the Louisiana Derby and I think the longer stretch at Churchill, plus the mile-and-a-quarter, should only help him in the Derby.”

Catching Freedom is a medium-framed stayer, and ever since he got on the Derby radar with a grind-'em-down win in the Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn Jan. 1, Cox has reiterated that this colt won't be wowing anyone with his morning workouts.

So the key to figuring out whether you want to back him or beat him in the Derby is going to have to rely more or race-to-race assessment rather than how Catching Freedom trains over the next 3 1/2 weeks. His Beyer progression has been 72-77-87-87-97.

11) JUST STEEL (c, Justify–Irish Lights {Aus}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus}). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-2-4-1, $724,545. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Even though he's an outlier likely to go off north of 30-1, you don't have to squint too hard at Just Steel's past performances to make a case for this D. Wayne Lukas trainee.

This $500,000 KEESEP son of 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify has a bedrock (by today's standards) foundation of 11 starts leading up to Louisville. On three occasions at age three, he's finished second around two turns in points-awarding prep stakes, and the one time he didn't, Just Steel was five wide round both turns at Oaklawn.

His final Kentucky Derby tune-up in the Arkansas Derby was also better than it might seem on paper: Just Steel raced close to the pace despite getting hooked four wide on the first turn, and he sustained his run through the lane in workmanlike fashion without tossing in the towel, finishing only two lengths behind No. 1-ranked Muth.

12) STRONGHOLD (c, Ghostzapper-Spectator, by Jimmy Creed)  O/B-Eric M. and Sharon Waller (KY); T-Philip D'Amato. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-3-0, $827,200. Last start: WON Apr. 6 GI Santa Anita Derby

This Ghostzapper-sired homebred for Rick and Sharon Waller is Kentucky-bound after winning the stretch slugfest in the Santa Anita Derby at 2.2-1 odds. His Beyer of 89 matches the figure he earned when victorious in the GIII Sunland Derby Feb. 18.

Of the nine 1 1/8-miles prep stakes on the Kentucky Derby qualifying calendar this season, the Santa Anita Derby holds the distinction of featuring the fastest opening quarter-mile (:22.72) and the slowest fourth-quarter split (:25.98).

Stronghold broke for the lead straight out of the gate, then was rated back to fourth by Antonio Fresu. After stalking the pacemakers, Stronghold shadowed Imagination on the far turn, split horses in upper stretch, then took over at the eighth pole. For the second straight race, he lost but recaptured the lead in the stretch, prevailing in the final 50 yards with admirable tenacity.

“Stronghold is a horse that just continues to improve, and I think it's the farther the better with him,” trainer Phil D'Amato said.  “He does just enough. He's shown the will to win, but those are usually the kinds of horses that stretch out well because they don't use themselves too much early and drain the gas tank. They have something left. I'm happy where we're at with him right now.”

 

Potentially rounding out the Derby starting gate…

13) Endlessly (Oscar Performance)

After Endlessly won the Mar. 23 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. to run his record to 5-for-6, with all wins on turf or Tapeta, trainer Michael McCarthy said that this Amerman Racing homebred would be pointed for the GII American Turf S. on the Kentucky Derby undercard instead of using the colt's eligibility points to get into the Derby itself.

Endlessly's connections have since caught Derby fever–or at least a whiff of it.

“After the Jeff Ruby, Mr. Amerman and I talked and we're going to leave all of our options open,” McCarthy said after Endlessly breezed an easy four furlongs in :49.60 (78/111) over the Churchill dirt Saturday morning. “We still have a few weeks to train here and have some time to make a final decision as to what we do next.”

You wouldn't blame them for taking a shot. Endlessly has six starts, all at a mile or longer, and has already twice won over nine furlongs. His four-length, complete-control win with a big outside move in that Turfway stake completely outclassed the field.

14) Mystik Dan (Goldencents)

Mystik Dan was carried out wide entering the backstretch of the Arkansas Derby and took the second turn in the four path. But he stalled when called upon for run and ended up third, beaten 6 1/2 lengths, in his nine-furlong debut.

He currently makes the Kentucky Derby qualifying cutoff with 46 points and will be in “regroup” mode for trainer Kenny McPeek, who hopes a little extra distance will allow this homebred son of Goldencents for owners Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing to get back to his 101-Beyer winning form from the GIII Southwest S.

15) Domestic Product (Practical Joke)

Domestic Product, a Chad Brown-trained homebred for Klaravich Stables, won the GIII Tampa Bay Derby with an 82 Beyer Speed Figure, a five-point regression off his 87-Beyer second in the GIII Holy Bull S.

The Tampa Derby was run as a non-wagering race because of bet-processing problems that caused a delay of more than half an hour past scheduled post.

Domestic Product was a midpack fifth behind a dawdling pace before being shaken up for run and surviving a three-way bob for the win.

For the second straight race, Domestic Product closed into unusually slow fractions. The first two quarter-mile splits in the Holy Bull were :25.03 and :25.50. The Tampa Derby's three opening quarters were clocked in :25.25, :25.89 and :25.07.

16) Honor Marie (Honor Code)

Honor Marie, a modest-framed $40,000 KEESEP colt by Honor Code who turns three on Derby Day, won the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill back on Nov. 25 by rating from last after five horses dueled early and two others took late-race runs at the lead.

In two starts in 2024, this Whit Beckman trainee was fifth in the GII Risen Star S., a key race that notably produced next-out, nine-furlong graded stakes winners Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom and Resilience. Honor Marie was second in his next outing, a 96-Beyer deep-closing try in the Louisiana Derby.

17) Society Man (Good Magic)

Now trainer Danny Gargan will have not one, but two Good Magic colts aiming for the Derby. Society Man's runner-up effort at 106-1 odds in the Wood Memorial secured the points berth to make the qualifying cutoff.

This $85,000 KEESEP yearling does have three races worth of experience at nine furlongs, although his only win was an on-Lasix score over a muddy, one-turn mile at Aqueduct Mar. 9.

“His mother won going a mile and an eighth and he's getting better,” Gargan said.

That win by dam You Cheated was her only dirt-track score from four wins, and it came at Churchill Downs in the slop in 2018.

18) West Saratoga (Exaggerator)

West Saratoga, an $11,000 KEESEP colt, is currently 11th on the Derby qualifying list with 67 points. He closed at 121-1 in this past weekend's Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

West Saratoga won the very first points-awarding prep stakes of the campaign, the GIII Iroquois  S. back on Sept. 16 at Churchill. He sat fourth behind a breakaway pacemaker, then came with a long, lumbering run to score at 12-1 odds.

This gray hasn't won since. At age three, he's been second, third, then second in the Pasco S., GIII Davis S. and Jeff Ruby S.

19) Catalytic (Catalina Cruiser)

Catalytic ($70,000 KEENOV, $125,000 FTSAUG) hit the side of the starting gate then got fanned four wide into the clubhouse turn of the Florida Derby. He was no match for runaway winner Fierceness, but held second in a best-of-the-rest performance that earned 50 qualifying points to get into the Kentucky Derby.

In his only other two starts, this son of Catalina Cruiser (out of a Distorted Humor mare) broke his maiden sprinting at Gulfstream last October, then finished second as the beaten favorite in an optional claimer/allowance sprint at Tampa Mar. 8.

20) T O Password (Jpn) (Copano Rickey {Jpn})

The connections of the 2-for-2 T O Password (Jpn) have accepted an invitation to compete in the Derby for accruing 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.

This is a forward-running colt whose two victories have come against lesser company than that kept by fellow Japanese contender Forever Young.

In the Mar. 23 1,800-meter Fukuryu S., this 13-1 Daisuke Takayanagi trainee went straight to the lead but had to be saved by the wire after losing a four-length cushion in the final half a furlong.

Woodbine's leading rider last year, Kazushi Kimura, has been booked to ride in the Derby.

T O Password won't hit his third birthday until May 20.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 20: Separating Contenders From Pretenders appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Sophomore Top 12: Final Wave of 9-Furlong Preps About to Crest

The plot thickens as the cadence quickens. Entries will be drawn Tuesday for this Saturday's GI Toyota Blue Grass S., and on Wednesday for the GI Santa Anita Derby and GII Wood Memorial S.

1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Muth's two-length score in the GI Arkansas Derby cemented his status as the divisional kingpin. Yes, there are colts who are faster based on speed figures. And yes, there are contenders who are more visually arresting in their stretch runs. But in terms of consistency, reliability, and the potential for even more improvement, there are no better bets at this stage of the season.

The gaming corporation that runs Churchill Downs has disinvited trainer Bob Baffert from the track's 150th GI Kentucky Derby bash, so it's unclear where this 'TDN Rising Star' might start next. A commitment to the GI Preakness S. would still be weeks away, but the connections of whoever ends up winning the May 4 Derby probably won't be going wild with visions of sweeping the Triple Crown knowing that a fresh, fit and dangerous Muth is waiting in the wings.

Muth adapted to two disruptive attempts in the early stages of the Arkansas Derby. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, he was initially forwardly placed under Juan Hernandez, then got edged back off the action when a keyed-up 26-1 shot slipped through at the rail. Taking up a sweet stalking spot cornering onto the backstretch, Hernandez then had to decide what to do when 11-10 favorite Timberlake (Into Mischief) unexpectedly accelerated between rivals at the 6 1/2-furlong pole to seize the lead.

Muth was asked to shadow fellow 'Rising Star' Timberlake before Hernandez sensed that he could let that rival keep a half-length lead for most of the back straight. Seven-sixteenths out, Hernandez coaxed Muth to unwind, and once he hit his best stride at the quarter pole, Muth began opening up under a hand ride while Timberlake was being roused and not responding.

Through the lane, Muth kept the pesky 32-1 shot Just Steel (Justify) two lengths in arrears, and under the wire it was another 4 1/2 lengths back to the remaining stragglers.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone, who celebrated his third birthday Mar. 31, is the horse to beat in Saturday's Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

That doesn't necessarily mean he needs to drain the tank to win his final prep race before the Derby. But considering this Chad Brown trainee has been unraced since winning the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S., it is imperative for Sierra Leone to demonstrate numerical progression off a three-race Beyer Speed Figure arc of 71-91-90.

This $2.3-million FTSAUG sale-topper takes a long while to uncoil with his off-the-pace runs. But the scary thing is we haven't seen him come close to scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves just yet.

In the Risen Star, he accomplished quite a bit considering it was just his third career start: Sierra Leone handled shipping away from his home base, winning off an 11-week layoff, rating from midpack while equipped with blinkers for the first time, and racing under the lights on a sloppy, sealed, and eerily shadowy track.

The last six times Brown has started a horse in the Blue Grass, the results have been two wins, three close seconds, and a third.

3) FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (c, Reel Steel {Jpn}–Forever Darling, by Congrats). O-Susumu Fujita; B-Northern Racing; T-Yoshito Yahagi. Sales History: ¥98,000,000 Ylg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-5-0-0, $2,049,451. Last start: WON Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby.

The 5-for-5 Forever Young is a very plausible threat for the Kentucky Derby coming off a convincing win in Saturday's G2 UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse over 1900 meters.

This Yoshito Yahagi trainee who sold for the equivalent of $720,603 at the JRHA Select Yearling and Foal sale was prompted for speed from an outer draw. Then, after opting for a four-wide go through the first turn, jockey Ryusei Sakai deftly eased him back to fifth on the straightaway, doing the best he could to keep the colt out of kickback (Forever Young was equipped a protective mask that was supposed to soften the blow of the dirt spray).

Forever Young again took the overland route around the final bend while smoothly shifting into consecutively higher gears, then drilled past the pacemaker with an outside bid before drawing away confidently.

The four dirt races on the G1 Dubai World Cup card at Meydan provided only a limited sample, but two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the ground-conceding run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of an inside-favoring track.

4) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-3-0-1, $1,703,850. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby.

Fierceness needed a sharp effort in the GI Florida Derby to give him forward momentum heading to Louisville, and a gaudy, 13 1/4-length blowout that earned a 110 Beyer supplied the latest exclamation point in a five-race, Jekyll-and-Hyde career that has alternated scintillating wins with inexplicably flat performances.

We still don't have a good measuring stick for how Fierceness might respond when faced with the multiple in-race challenges that a race like the 20-horse Derby will present. This Repole Stable homebred by City of Light had everything his own way Saturday when establishing a measured tempo without having to fight hard for the lead or repulse any serious bids.

It's not Fierceness's fault the Florida Derby came up soft on paper. But it does mean that the Kentucky Derby will be this colt's first immersion into the deeper end of the divisional pool since he pasted the field in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile by 6 1/4 lengths.

At age two, Fierceness aired in his sloppy-track Saratoga debut by 11 1/4 lengths. He then looked lost when seventh as the odds-on fave in the similarly sloppy GI Champagne S. His Breeders' Cup victory was delivered with authority, yet his coming-out party at age three was an underwhelming third at 1-5 odds in the slow-paced GIII Holy Bull S.

If anything, Fierceness's cakewalk in the Florida Derby should erase any doubts about whether he had too taxing a final prep five weeks before the Run for the Roses. On Sunday morning, trainer Todd Pletcher reported the colt came out of the race “super.”

5) DETERMINISTIC (c, Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable, Langone, Ken, Duncker, C. Steven and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement. Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $222,750. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S.

The athletic but lightly seasoned Deterministic remains on target for Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. This 2-for-2 Christophe Clement trainee bulleted five-eighths Friday in 1:01.60 (1/5) at Payson Park while reeling in a workmate after starting two lengths back with his usual jockey, Joel Rosario, aboard.

“I thought it was nice for him to be in behind a horse,” Clement told Daily Racing Form's David Grening. “If he goes two turns, a mile and an eighth, most probably he will be behind horses. I kind of like in the morning to try and reproduce what you're going to do in the race.”

This colt scored at first asking over seven furlongs in an Aug. 12 MSW sprint at Saratoga (81 Beyer). He was subsequently sidelined with an ankle chip, but stamped himself as a Derby contender with an eye-catching, stalk-and-split win in the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct, a one-turn mile over a sloppy and sealed track (93 Beyer).

Deterministic is drawing more than the usual share of “wiseguy” attention considering he's only started twice and we're into April. But a big showing in New York vaults him into the mix for favoritism in Louisville.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-2-0, $505,400. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S.

Dornoch, a $325,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic who is a full-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, will still be in schooling mode for his final prep stakes Saturday at Keeneland.

Trainer Danny Gargan has been wanting to see if Dornoch is more effective in a race when targeting horses instead of setting the pace. But he didn't get to execute that strategy as planned in the GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream, because all the main speed horses scratched out of that race, and Dornoch once again got sent to the front. He wired the field that day, but Gargan wants to try again from a bit farther back in the Blue Grass.

The guess here is that Dornoch won't drop back quite as far as rival Sierra Leone. But with deadline for this column coming before entries are drawn, we don't know for sure which and how many early speed types will be setting the table ahead of both of them.

Dornoch bested Sierra Leone by a nose in the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct. But that was five months ago over a muddy track that was heavily biased toward early speed. Dornoch forced the issue up front and Sierra Leone closed wide from well off the tailgate. Dornoch brushed the rail in upper stretch, but regained his best stride late to steal back the lead from Sierra Leone, who was also a touch unfocused through the lane.

7) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

Track Phantom's fourth in the GII Louisiana Derby was subpar considering he was allowed to establish an unpressured pace before regressing late. But when you consider that he looked certain to be swallowed up by no fewer than five rivals off the turn yet didn't concede the lead until the sixteenth pole, that has to count for something.

This $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road wouldn't be the first speed-centric horse to win the Kentucky Derby off a so-so final prep race. Keep in mind that in a year where top prospects are light on racing experience, trainer Steve Asmussen has already given Track Phantom seven starts at a mile or longer, and he's been right up near the lead in every try.

In doing so, he's dealt with outermost posts in three of his last four starts, plus gate 11 of 12 on one other occasion. Track Phantom has been unfazed by having hyper horses to his inside, and he's also engaged in a couple of decent stretch fights. He's run well in the slop (twice second, beaten half a length each time), and he's won around two turns at Churchill, which is always encouraging to see.

Track Phantom was among the first Derby candidates to ship into Churchill last Thursday, and his stock is likely to quietly rise over the course of the next month.

8) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

This son of Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare earned 'TDN Rising Star' honors in his Jan. 20 debut over 6 1/2 furlongs by splitting horses early, pegging straight for the lead, and setting a brisk tempo before brushing off three spent rivals at the quarter pole. His winning margin was 7 1/2 easy lengths (93 Beyer).

Six horses have now run back out of that Santa Anita MSW, and they are a collective 1-for-8 in all subsequent starts, with the lone winner running a 79 Beyer.

The better measuring stick might be Maymun's Feb. 11 allowance try over a mile in which he brushed a rival at the break, then sideswiped stablemate and second-favorite Imagination (Into Mischief) while bearing out into the first turn.

After a slower second-quarter split, Imagination engaged Maymun from the outside and they ratcheted up the cadence from the three-eighths pole to the wire before Maymun wrested Imagination into submission through a final eighth in :12.83 (89 Beyer). The top two were 10 1/2 lengths clear of the three also-rans.

Imagination showed he was no slouch be rebounding to capture the Mar. 3 GII San Felipe S.

The two could hook up again in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby, where trainer Bob Baffert is expected to enter at least two stablemates.

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

The 97-Beyer winner of the Louisiana Derby is scheduled for four workouts prior to the Kentucky Derby, trainer Brad Cox told the 'TDN Writers' Room' podcast last week.

Cox mentioned that this Constitution colt brushed the gate and thus didn't jump all that well in the Louisiana Derby. Even though Catching Freedom is an established closer, it was not the game plan for him to be so far back, Cox added.

Flavien Prat made the most of an improvised trip, waiting patiently behind a moderate pace at the rear of the field until 2 1/2 furlongs out before circling with a 12-wide bid in upper stretch that Catching Freedom sustained over the length of the long Fair Grounds home straight.

“He's not a big horse. He's medium-sized. He's a good mover,” Cox said. “He puts a good bit into his gallops. His works have just been average. His first work back will be a pretty basic work. We may even take him by himself. We're not looking to do much with him. But then the three [works] leading up [to the Derby] we'll ask him for a little bit more.”

10) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,050,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $256,800. Last start: WON Mar. 3 San Felipe S.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt has never been worse than second from five starts. He appears to be in the mix for Saturday's Santa Anita Derby for trainer Bob Baffert.

In the San Felipe S., Imagination got clipped from behind, then rushed to engage stablemate Wine Me Up (Vino Rosso). The two locked into a prolonged battle around the far turn and through the home straight, with Imagination gamely prevailing by a head (96 Beyer).

As mentioned above in Maymun's write-up, Imagination was also impeded around the first turn two starts ago in a Santa Anita allowance, yet he didn't back down in that race either. He finished second, beaten a neck, after briefly snatching the lead on three distinct occasions in the stretch.

11) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-3-1-0, $1,173,100. Last start: 4th Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Timberlake's fourth-place try in the Arkansas Derby knocked him down a few pegs on the sophomore totem pole, but it didn't get him voted off the Top 12 island just yet, because the effort might have been an aberration.

In last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Timberlake never settled in the early stages and it cost him the race. This $350,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief seemed to have rectified that issue when he rated much more willingly in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. But on Saturday at Oaklawn, he was back to his old tricks, and Flavien Prat believed it was best to just let him go rather than waste energy fighting the colt's headstrong ways.

“He was getting very aggressive, so I kind of let him run,” Prat told FanDuel TV. “He settled down nicely on the backside, but he didn't have much run at the end.”

Considering he has the qualifying points and a pedigree that fuses speed with stamina, the Derby is still a realistic goal if trainer Brad Cox can figure out how to get a more efficient effort out of Timberlake. Prat also rides No. 9-ranked Catching Freedom for Cox, meaning a Derby choice looms likely in the near future.

12) JUST STEEL (c, Justify–Irish Lights {Aus}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus}). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-2-4-1, $724,545. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

How's this for a story line? At age 88, trainer D. Wayne Lukas will be saddling his 50th Derby horse overall and his first starter in the race since 2018 after Just Steel's 32-1 second-place try in the Arkansas Derby garnered enough qualifying points to get in.

Lukas has won the Derby four times, with Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999).

Based solely on race records, the 2-for-11 Just Steel compares aptly to Charismatic, who was 2-for-12 entering his Derby 25 years ago and went off at a largely ignored 31-1 in the betting.

While Just Steel isn't as purely fast as some of the higher-ranked Derby aspirants on this list, he's a hard-trying type who can be envisioned as being in the thick of things late at a big price if he gets the right trip.

Just Steel's effort at Oaklawn was commendable. He was always near the pace despite going four wide on the first turn, and he maintained his run through the lane in persistent enough fashion to prove he knows how to finish.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 12: Final Wave of 9-Furlong Preps About to Crest appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Sophomore Top 12: Five Contenders in Action This Saturday

We're approaching the five-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, but not all contenders on this week's list are aiming for the first Saturday in May. This coming weekend's nine-furlong stakes at Oaklawn and Gulfstream have the potential to usher in a shake-up within the rankings, which have remained relatively stable as winter edges into spring.

1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

With stablemate and fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) out of training for at least 30 days, Muth inherits the top spot on the Sophomore Top 12 despite not having raced since Jan. 6.

This 3-for-5 Good Magic colt drew post seven for Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby as the 8-5 morning-line favorite.

Muth is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby because of Churchill Downs's corporate ban on Bob Baffert's trainees. So it's possible Baffert is sizing up a subsequent start for him in the GI Preakness S. May 18.

The athletic Muth has a no-drama way of going about his tasks, and that businesslike efficiency appears poised to bloom into substantial class. With four total races at age two that included two routes and a Grade I win in the American Pharoah S., Baffert opted to sharpen this colt's speed by starting 2024 him in the seven-furlong GIII San Vicente S., a race that Muth commanded by stalking two pacemakers before breaking away at will (90 Beyer Speed Figure).

Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby four times. Favorites crossed the finish wire first in that race for five straight runnings, from 2017 through split divisions in 2020. But the chalk has gone down in defeat in each of the last three editions.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

With two wins and a second-place loss by only a nose, plus a locomotive-like ability to close ground when it counts, Sierra Leone's form doesn't need much validation from the horses left in his wake.

Still, the win by this 'TDN Rising Star' in the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds now looks even better after Saturday's one-two finish in the GII Louisiana Derby by the colts who ran third and fifth behind Sierra Leone last month in New Orleans.

This $2.3-million FTSAUG sale-topper will go next in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland, meaning that if he exits that final Derby prep in decent order, this Chad Brown trainee will have three straight races at nine furlongs prior to attempting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

That experience over a distance of ground might mitigate concerns about only having four lifetime starts before the Derby.

3) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

You can expect juvenile champ and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness to go off quite a bit lower than his 8-5 morning-line ranking in Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby. He drew post 10 in an 11-horse field that lured just one other colt currently ranked within TDN's Sophomore Top 12.

The GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor is in regroup mode for start number two of 2024. He drew a very soft field for the Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S. Accordingly, the betting public hammered him to 1-5 odds, but Fierceness came up flat.

By way of a possible excuse, trainer Todd Pletcher had referenced bumping at the break that caused jockey John Velazquez to push harder on the colt than they would have liked to in an attempt to obtain good early positioning. But still, a colt of Fierceness's perceived caliber should have finished up a lot more powerfully considering the lullaby tempo of the Holy Bull's two opening quarter-miles, which were clocked in :25.03 and :25.50.

A performance on Saturday that resembles anything close to the one uncorked by Fierceness when he trounced the Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory would re-establish his presence as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

This Repole Stable homebred had checked a lot of boxes on that first weekend of November by flashing tactical speed while in hand from the gate, willingly pressing a pacemaker, displaying good responsiveness when encouraged to quicken, and fluidly torqueing into a higher gear through the stretch before smoothly galloping out well ahead of everyone else.

Dornoch | Nicole Thomas

4) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-2-0, $505,400. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S.

The anticipated rematch of Dornoch and Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass S. will end up being the highest-profile rivalry of the Derby prep campaign. In a season that has been hallmarked by shallow qualifying stakes with little horse-vs.-horse intrigue, here's hoping that showdown ends up being worth the wait.

Those two last met in the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct. Racing on a sealed, muddy track that favored early speed, Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took pressure from a 27-1 shot, swatted back bids from fresh challengers on the far turn, then brushed the rail and re-surged to steal the lead late from Sierra Leone, who had taken the overland route from last against the grain of the bias. Dornoch's winning margin was a nose.

Each has since had one subsequent start at age three, with Sierra Leone annexing the Risen Star S. as the 5-2 favorite and Dornoch winning at 1-5 odds in a scratch-reduced GII Fountain of Youth S.

That cakewalk win at Gulfstream for this son of Good Magic didn't tell us much about Dornoch's forward progression. But trainer Danny Gargan has said he's liked what he's seen in two breezes since that race, and in choosing the Blue Grass he is underscoring that he's not ducking anyone along the way to the Derby in his hometown of Louisville.

5) DETERMINISTIC (c, Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable, Langone, Ken, Duncker, C. Steven and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement. Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $222,750. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S.

Despite being one of the lightest-raced among the Top 12 contenders, the 2-for-2 Deterministic rates highly in terms of the anticipatory buzz about his next start and projections about how he might fare as a Triple Crown contender.

After winning at first asking in an Aug. 12 MSW sprint at Saratoga, Deterministic was sidelined with an ankle chip that kept him out of action until the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct.

Trainer Christophe Clement had this $625,000 KEESEP colt primed to fire off the nearly seven-month layoff, and Deterministic stalked willingly under Joel Rosario prior to tipping out and splitting horses with authority in the stretch over a sealed and sloppy one-turn mile.

The visually impressive win garnered a 93 Beyer, a boost of 12 points.

The Apr. 6 GII Wood Memorial S. is next.

6) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $96,000. Last start: WON Mar. 1 Gulfstream AOC.

Although gate nine is not a desirable draw for nine-furlong races at Gulfstream (2-for-105 over the past 15 years according to Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch), the wide post is probably not going to be as big of an issue for 'TDN Rising Star' Conquest Warrior, who figures to be backed off the Florida Derby pace with speed threats drawn to his inside and outside.

This stout-framed, long-striding $1-million KEESEP closer will benefit from being able to sit back and zero in on targets. But he's going to need a less “busy” ride from jockey Jose Ortiz, who in a Mar. 1 allowance at Gulfstream over the same distance rated Conquest Warrior off heels at the seven-furlong pole, sent him back up to re-engage six furlongs out, came through on the inside, then sliced outside for a winning run to reel in a tiring target.

There was a fair amount of lateral and back-and-forth repositioning going on in that race, and Conquest Warrior got away with all that maneuvering because he was 1-5 in the betting against five rivals who weren't Triple Crown-caliber competition.

Conquest Warrior's previous race, a one-turn-mile maiden win Jan. 13, was also a bit of an adventure. He got sandwiched at the break, shuffled to last, then repeatedly ran into traffic before bursting through for a dramatic half-length score under Ortiz.

Trainer Shug McGuaghey will send out the second-favorite for the Florida Derby knowing Conquest Warrior is 2-for-2 over the Gulfstream surface, that he's already won at 1 1/8 miles, and that he should get honest fractions in front of him while he unwinds from midpack or farther back.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

The 2-for-2 'TDN Rising Star' Maymun will start next in the Apr. 6 GI Santa Anita Derby, according to a confirmation by trainer Bob Baffert first published by Horse Racing Nation on Friday.

Maymun blitzed home first by 7 1/2 lengths in his Jan. 20 debut over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer), then scored a one-mile allowance victory (89 Beyer) there Feb. 11 despite sideswiping a stablemate on the first turn.

After both colts recovered without incident, Maymun launched a spirited bid three-eighths from the wire in tandem with Imagination (Into Mischief). But he had to exert quite a bit of effort in putting away his stubborn stablemate, who seized the lead three times from the quarter to the sixteenth poles before Maymun clawed back a half-length deficit inside the final 100 yards.

Imagination came back to win the Mar. 3 GII San Felipe S. with a 96 Beyer.

8) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $1,094,350. Last start: WON Feb. 24 GII Rebel S.

Trainer Brad Cox has won the Arkansas Derby with non-favorites in each of the last two runnings, with Cyberknife at 5-1 odds in 2022 and Angel of Empire at 9-2 last season.

This year, he's got 'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake who will start from post two as the 9-5 second choice on the morning line behind the favored Muth.

Timberlake has plateaued 93 Beyers in three straight starts spanning nearly six months. Those races were a one-turn-mile win in the sloppy-surfaced GI Champagne S., a rank-on-the-first-turn fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then a much more settled win in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn.

His stretch run in the Rebel wasn't flawless–Timberlake stalled momentarily, but re-engaged once roused. It was a decent enough launch point to show how he has the potential to be a legit divisional threat with some polishing.

“I like the timing,” Cox said of the Oaklawn race. “Obviously, he has the experience there now, that one run under him. I kind of thought the Rebel was the spot when we were getting started. At the beginning of the winter, we thought the Rebel was the spot. It worked out.”

Catching Freedom | Hodges Photography

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution-Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

Catching Freedom won't be heading to Louisville as one of the favorites. But his last-to-first win in Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby stamped him as a capable stayer. He'll be the type of colt who doesn't rank as an A-list powerhouse, but you'll probably end up agonizing over whether to include him in your exotic wagers, because he figures to be firing from off the tailgate.

At Fair Grounds, Flavien Prat waited patiently at the rear of the field until 2 1/2 furlongs out behind a moderate tempo, and because he didn't want to slow this Constitution colt's momentum, he let Catching Freedom fan 12 wide into the lane.

This $575,000 KEESEP grad chugged home in straight, grind-down fashion, executing his job willingly. But for the most part, he was passing horses who had already taken their best cracks at the leader.

Catching Freedom's 97 Beyer came back a little higher than I might have guessed based on the visual impression of the race. He gained ground in the stretch through a final furlong and a half timed in :18.78. In the five runnings since the Louisiana Derby got elongated to 1 3/16 miles, that's the second slowest fraction for the final three-sixteenths of the race.

“I didn't know what to make of it early on, being so far back and with not much pace,” said trainer Brad Cox. “But Flavien did a great job of letting him inch up. He needed pretty much the entire stretch to get there and I am very proud of the effort.”

10) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Mystik Dan improved his Beyer by a whopping 19 points and was geared down late while leading the way home through a final sixteenth clocked in a zippy :5.93 when he won the Feb. 3  GIII Southwest S. at 11-1 odds.

Are his 101 Beyer and the distinction of having run the fastest closing half-furlong among all 18 of this season's Derby points-awarding stakes at 1 1/16 miles the real deal? Or were those impressive metrics simply artifacts of Mystik Dan relishing a muddy, sealed Oaklawn surface that was playing quirkily?

We'll find out in Saturday's Arkansas Derby, where this homebred son of Goldencents for owners Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing faces the difficult task of trying to outmuscle both the No. 1-ranked Muth and No. 8 Timberlake.

Trainer Kenny McPeek has expressed confidence all winter long about how this keen-minded colt has learned how to rate off the pace without the transition blunting Mystik Dan's natural speed.

Besides the Southwest romp by eight lengths, Mystik Dan's only other victory from five starts was a 5 1/2-furlong MSW win at Churchill back on Nov. 12 in which he wired the field by 7 3/4 lengths.

11) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road-Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby

Track Phantom didn't have to be rushed from post 11 and he was allowed to dictate a moderate tempo in the Louisiana Derby. So in that respect, it's a bit disappointing that he faded to fourth in the stretch as the beaten 2-1 favorite and won't be heading to the Kentucky Derby with positive forward momentum.

But that doesn't mean he gets voted off the Top 12 island, either. Especially because this is a year that is shaping up as a Derby without too many established, credible early blazers to force or set the pace. With a little honing of his established speed-centric form in two-turn races, trainer Steve Asmussen could fine-tune this $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road into the type of dangerous Derby prospect who gets bold on the lead.

Also, consider that Track Phantom looked almost certain to be swallowed up by no fewer than five contenders ganging up behind him at the head of the lane on Saturday. I can't say for certain whether he definitively swatted them all back or if their bids just never materialized. But give this colt some credit for not ceding the lead until the sixteenth pole despite tiring under duress.

Asmussen told Daily Racing Form Sunday that after talking to jockey Joel Rosario, “we thought there was a little more there, and we're going to try a little French cup blinker.” He added that Track Phantom exited the race fine and will point for the Derby.

12) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $256,800. Last start: WON Mar. 3 San Felipe S.

Imagination got clipped from behind on the clubhouse turn of the GII San Felipe S., then rushed up to engage stablemate Wine Me Up (Vino Rosso). The two battled around the far turn and into the home straight, with Imagination prevailing by a head.

Since breaking his maiden in start number three on Jan. 1, this Bob Baffert trainee has now put together two sharp back-to-back routes races in which he has been knocked off balance early, then got locked into a prolonged tussle on the front end without backing down. Even when he lost by a neck to Maymun back on Feb. 11, that second-place try resonated as a punching-above-his-weight type of performance.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt could resurface in the Santa Anita Derby, where Baffert is expected to have “at least two starters and potentially three,” as per Sunday's Santa Anita press notes.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 12: Five Contenders in Action This Saturday appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Sophomore Top 12: Getting Ready To March Into Nine-Furlong Proving Grounds

We're at the two-month mark for the GI Kentucky Derby, and we're on the cusp of the major prep races getting extended to nine furlongs and beyond. Not all of the Triple Crown-caliber horses on this list, however, are pointing for the first Saturday in May.

1) NYSOS (c, Nyquist–Zetta Z, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Baoma Corp; B-Susie Atkins (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $130,000 Wlg '21 KEENOV; $150,000 Ylg '22 FTKOCT; $550,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $216,600. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Robert F. Lewis S.

On Saturday, trainer Bob Baffert scratched 1-5 morning-line favorite Nysos from Sunday's GII San Felipe S. He told Daily Racing Form's Brad Free that a “gut feeling” was prodding him to give the undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' more time off between races.

“My original plan to was to just wait,” Baffert told DRF, referencing the time since Nysos's 7 1/2-length win in the Feb. 3 GIII Lewis S.

“I don't need to run him [Sunday]. I just might wait for the [Apr. 6 GI] Santa Anita Derby,” Baffert told DRF, adding the colt was physically fine.

This powerful, dynamic son of Nyquist ($130,000 KEENOV, $150,000 FTKOCT, $550,000 OBSAPR) has now won at six, seven and eight furlongs by a combined 26 3/4 lengths while earning Beyer Speed Figures of 96, 97 and 105.

Despite the San Felipe scratch, bettors zealously backed this colt to heavy 5-2 favoritism in the first round of the GI Preakness S. futures pool that closed Saturday.

Churchill Downs has barred Baffert's trainees from participating in the Derby, and the purported wisdom of crowds is banking that his top Derby-skipping sophomore will not only show up in the Preakness, but dominate it.

But Baffert has yet to publicly declare which, if any, of his trainees might be Baltimore-bound 2 1/2 months from now, which makes Nysos's Preakness futures price look like a huge underlay.

2) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

With Nysos likely slotted for the Santa Anita Derby, that leaves stablemate and fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Muth  as the most likely candidate to lead Bob Baffert's traveling team to Oaklawn for the GI Arkansas Derby Mar. 30.

Muth ($190,000 KEESEP, $2 million OBSMAR) had already been pegged to hit the road to Hot Springs this season, for the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. This son of Good Magic would have been heavily favored in that spot, but after Baffert wasn't satisfied with the way Muth's final workout for the race went, he declined to enter.

Muth has alternated wins and seconds in five lifetime races since breaking his maiden back on June 18. He was second in the GIII Best Pal S., first in the GI American Pharoah S., second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then a winner in the GII San Vicente S.

Muth would be facing a nearly three-month layoff in the Arkansas Derby, a stakes that Baffert has won four times.

Favorites crossed the finish wire first in the Arkansas Derby for five straight runnings, from 2017 through split divisions in 2020. But the chalk has lost in each of the last three years.

3) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

If he goes next in the GI Blue Grass S. at Keeneland as expected, Sierra Leone will have three straight races at nine furlongs spanning from December to April prior to attempting 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby.

That experience over a distance of ground will help, especially considering this $2.3 million FTSAUG sale-topper by Gun Runner is projected to have just four lifetime races prior to heading to Louisville.

Since 1937, only four horses have won the Derby going into the race with four or fewer lifetime starts: Animal Kingdom (four) plus Justify, Big Brown and Mage (three each).

Sierra Leone will also be going up against the grain of another recent hurdle–winning the Derby off of just two starts at age three. That angle produced eight Derby winners between 2007 and 2016. But since then, horses with only two sophomore starts have been a collective 0-for-39 in the Derby.

Still, beyond those historical trends, it's tough to knock this 'TDN Rising Star' on the basis of his on-track performance.

He won his one-turn-mile debut Nov. 4 at Aqueduct despite repeated trip trouble, and that race produced two next-out winners, one a fellow 'Rising Star'.

Sierra Leone then rallied seven wide from last in the mud against a stern speed bias in the GII Remsen S., but had to settle for second after losing the lead late.

His 3-year-old debut featured another resolute rally over a wet track when he shot home from the back of the pack over the long Fair Grounds stretch in the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

Sierra Leone's Beyer arc now stands at 71-91-90.

4) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L & N Racing LLC, Clark O Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-2-1, $365,000. Last start: 2nd in Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

Track Phantom isn't a shock-and-awe type of colt, but he rates near the top of the crop in terms of steadiness and reliability over six races.

Since trainer Steve Asmussen stretched out this $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road in lifetime start number three, Track Phantom has responded with three speed-centric wins and one half-length loss that was a decent try, with Beyers trending 88-89-90-89 in two-turn races.

He's handled different types of pace pressure despite being drawn in or near the outside stall in his last three races, has routinely had to engage in stretch battles, and has capably handled two different types of wet tracks at Fair Grounds and Churchill.

After getting outrun in the deep stages of the Risen Star S. by No. 3-ranked Sierra Leone, Track Phantom remains on target for the GII Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles.

5) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

With a bullet half-mile breeze Feb. 23 and a third-best, in-company morning move over the same distance Mar. 1 that featured a strong gallop-out, trainer Todd Pletcher expressed confidence from Palm Beach Downs that 2-year-old champ Fierceness is making progress for the GI Florida Derby.

Back on Feb. 3, the Repole Stable homebred and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner ran a punchless third at 1-5 odds when making his 3-year-old debut.

Pletcher explained that this 'TDN Rising Star' by City of Light had been training well leading up to that subpar performance in the GIII Holy Bull S., and he's still a little perplexed as to why Fierceness didn't truly fire.

“I don't think he needed a race. I think our expectations were so high for him that maybe we're not looking at it realistically. If you watch the start of the race, he got slammed pretty hard from both sides. Johnny [Velazquez], in order to execute the game plan, had to use him pretty hard to get to the first turn in the position we wanted to,” Pletcher said.

“He could have been a little rusty off the layoff, even though he was training great. He was top weight. [There are] a lot of subtle excuses that, for an ordinary horse, you would try to justify it. In his case, he trained so well and we expected so much of him, sometimes you think he can overcome everything.”

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-2-0, $505,400. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S.

There's a lot to be said for simply showing up, and that adage was especially true for this $325,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. That race was decimated by four scratches, and Dornoch ended up towering over four rivals at 1-5 in the betting while administering a straightforward wiring that earned him an 88 Beyer, a three-point dip off his most recent victory in the GII Remsen S. back on Dec. 2.

Trainer Danny Gargan had outlined prior to the Fountain of Youth S. that he wanted Dornoch to get some schooling by rating slightly behind the pace. But the scratches changed the way the race shaped up on paper, and Gargan called a last-minute audible, telling jockey Luis Saez to instead head straight to the front.

“We didn't want to be on the lead [because] he gets out there and he kind of plays around,” Gargan said. “You can see him with his ears kind of goofing off. I told Luis, 'Just go ahead and go.' We had no choice. We really wanted to stalk, it just didn't work out that way. He won fine enough. Surely it won't be his fastest race. We didn't expect to win. It just kind of played out that way. I don't think he ran very hard.”

As for Dornoch's next start, Gargan said “we could run in the Florida Derby or the Blue Grass. We're lucky enough now where we can pick our spot. Sixty [Kentucky Derby qualifying] points usually gets you in, so now we're on cruise control. We'll figure out where we want to go next and try to enjoy this for a minute.”

Dornoch | Ryan Thompson

7) DETERMINISTIC (c, Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable, Langone, Ken, Duncker, C. Steven and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement. Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $222,750. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S.

Deterministic (Liam's Map) is an intriguing new shooter within the Top 12, anchoring his status with a hard-charging, 93-Beyer win off a seven-month layoff in Saturday's GIII Gotham S. over a sealed and sloppy one-turn mile at Aqueduct for trainer Christophe Clement.

Clement himself is part of the appeal, because if he does end up sending this $625,000 KEESEP colt on a prep path that leads to Louisville, you can have confidence knowing that the well-respected veteran conditioner believes the colt truly belongs. Clement has never saddled a horse in the Kentucky Derby, although he did win the GI Belmont S. with Tonalist in 2014.

“To [just] run [in the Derby], no,” Clement told the Aqueduct notes team, underscoring that he's not interested in entering Triple Crown races just to take a shot. “To win, yes,” he added with a laugh.

But if Deterministic ends up running big in a race like the Florida Derby or GII Wood Memorial, where he'd be sure to get wiseguy betting attention based on Clement's impeccable reputation for proper placement of his horses, the Kentucky Derby could be a “go.”

Clement said Deterministic would be nominated to a number of Derby points-awarding preps.

“No decision whatsoever made for the next start,” Clement said. “At the moment, the only worry is the well-being of the horse and we'll go from there. We'll get him to a work and the work will tell us what to do with him.

“I had a long talk with Joel [Rosario] and he was delighted with the horse,” Clement said, alluding to that jockey also being aboard for Deterministic's maiden debut win at Saratoga last August. “He thought that he was a lot more mature yesterday than what he was in his first race.”

8) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $96,000. Last start: WON Mar. 1 Gulfstream AOC.

You got the feeling trainer Shug McGuaghey wanted not just a win, but a good learning experience for 'TDN Rising Star' Conquest Warrior (City of Light) out of last Friday's nine-furlong allowance try at Gulfstream. The Hall-of-Fame trainer ended up getting both, and now has the luxury of choosing among several different prep stakes for this long-striding $1 million KEESEP colt.

Exiting an adversity-overcoming maiden win going a mile, Conquest Warrior got bet down to 3-5 favoritism against five rivals Mar. 1. He initially tried to resist Jose Ortiz's rating hold through the first turn, but Ortiz chose not to fight him, and Conquest Warrior adeptly settled into a more rhythmic cadence once Ortiz guided him off heels and away from outer cover seven-eighths out.

But by the six-furlong pole, Ortiz was already on the prowl to re-engage, and he chose an inside passage for Conquest Warrior, who ate some kickback but methodically picked off two backstretch targets before slicing outside of the tiring leader on the far turn.

By upper stretch this son of City of Light had attained the lead without coming anywhere close to being fully unleashed, and with no new threats emerging from behind, Ortiz put Conquest Warrior under cruise control for the final sixteenth. The 1:50.52 clocking translated to an 84 Beyer, the same figure the colt earned when breaking his maiden.

The Florida Derby, Blue Grass S., and GII Wood Memorial are all options.

9) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

Maymun ($50,000 KEESEP, $900,000 OBSAPR) owns a 2-for-2 record for trainer Bob Baffert, but next-race plans for this 'TDN Rising Star' have yet to be publicly disclosed.

This son of Frosted romped by 7 1/2 lengths in his Jan. 20 unveiling over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer), then registered a one-mile allowance victory Feb. 11 despite racing rambunctiously on the first turn (89 Beyer).

Maymun's stablemate, Imagination (Into Mischief), was the second-place finisher in that allowance race. That colt returned Mar. 3 to win the San Felipe S. by a head with a 96 Beyer.

10) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $1,094,350. Last start: WON Feb. 24 GII Rebel S.

'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake was a 93-Beyer winner in his sophomore debut, and while the speed figure he earned in that Rebel S. was only good enough to match the last two numbers he posted at age two when capturing the GI Champagne S. and running fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, there was improvement in the “how he did it” category.

That's because in the Juvenile, this $350,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief resisted efforts to settle among horses on the clubhouse turn, and it cost him the race.

Nearly four months later at Oaklawn, Timberlake was tasked with essentially the same assignment, and this time he handled it capably, rating between horses before advancing into contention on the far turn.

Roused for run three-eighths out, Timberlake loomed five wide into the lane. Charging hard while widest and always under a drive, he put away three wilting pacemakers but had a touch more difficulty dispatching a 28-1 shot who had slipped through at the rail.

Timberlake momentarily stalled and shifted outward at the eighth pole, narrowly losing the lead for several strides. But after jockey Christian Torres re-engaged his interest, Timberlake drew off under encouragement to win by two lengths with no serious closers firing from the back of the pack.

A final prep race prior to the Kentucky Derby is in the cards, with trainer Brad Cox indicating that the preference will be a Grade I race, with the Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass S. the likeliest landing spots.

11) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Mystik Dan, who celebrated a birthday Mar. 4, is training at Fair Grounds for a repeat trip to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby.

Last time out at Oaklawn, this son of Goldencents unleashed an eight-length, 101-Beyer romp in the GIII Southwest S.

Considering Mystik Dan was let go at 11-1 in the betting, and taking into account that he might have relished a muddy, sealed surface that other horses didn't handle, it remains an open question as to whether this homebred for Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing can conjure up a similar effort against tougher competition going a longer distance over a dry surface.

The Southwest hasn't shaken out to be a productive stakes. The horses who ran second, fifth, seventh and tenth behind Mystik Dan in the Southwest came back to run seventh, second, sixth and tenth, respectively, in the Rebel S. The fourth-place Southwest horse dropped into an allowance race and again ran fourth. A ninth-place maiden out of the Southwest ran a next-out third in a MSW route.

Still, McPeek has pointed to intangibles when sizing up Mystik Dan's potential, explaining that he believes the colt has a good mind and an easygoing attitude, both of which are helping to adapt this his ample natural speed to two-turn pacing.

Encino | Coady

12) ENCINO (c, Nyquist–Glittering Jewel, by Bernardini) O/B-Godolphin, LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $141,971. Last start: WON Mar. 2 John Battaglia Memorial S.

Encino (Nyquist) is an under-the-radar but quietly improving colt from trainer Brad Cox's barn. Over the weekend he upped his record to 2-for-3 in Tapeta routes at Turfway by winning the John Battaglia Memorial S. over 1 1/16 miles by one length with an 89 Beyer.

This Godolphin homebred's only loss was by a neck when second in his mile debut. He then wired the field at odds-on in start number two, and overcame post 11 in the Battaglia S. despite giving up four paths of real estate on both turns and running up on the heels of the favorite at the three-sixteenths pole. After regaining his momentum, Encino refocused to reel in that more experienced, stakes-winning foe.

Encino's connections now must decide whether to keep him on a Tapeta surface they know he can handle by targeting the Mar. 23 GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. at Turfway, or if he's ready for a transition to a dirt surface against what would likely be more difficult competition.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 12: Getting Ready To March Into Nine-Furlong Proving Grounds appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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