The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Forte’s Still Forte…Uh-Oh…

The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is starting to ramp up, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

Three 50-point Kentucky Derby preps have come and gone. Last year's top 2-year-old came back with a vengeance in the Fountain of Youth, a Tim Yakteen trainee won the San Felipe (though perhaps not the one many thought would get the job done), and a big price came home in the Gotham.

Several efforts resulted in considerable changes to this list. However, the top remains unchanged, and for good reason. Let's get this week's Derby Bubble off to an unsurprising start…

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Forte and Irad Ortiz Jr. en route to winning the G2 Fountain of Youth

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 90

It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, and he never looked like a loser in Saturday's G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Even scarier for his rivals is the fact that this was his first race since the Breeders' Cup, and an effort he may very well have needed. If there's further improvement in store between now and the first Saturday in May…yikes.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Arabian Knight

Arabian Knight, with John Velazquez aboard, win the G3 Southwest at Oaklawn

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Borealis Night (by Astrology)

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Arabian Knight romped in two starts, including January's G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. That day's runner-up, Red Route One, came back to flatter this one a bit by running a close-up second to Confidence Game in the G2 Rebel. Arabian Knight may only have one chance to earn Kentucky Derby points, but it's likely he'll be a pretty heavy favorite in that outing, and for good reason.

Arabian Knight was bred in Kentucky by Corser Thoroughbreds, out of the unplaced Astrology mare Borealis Night. He sold to Scott and Evan Dilworth for $250,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was purchased by Zedan Racing Stables for $2.3 million at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Borealis Night, a product of the Stonestreet Farm breeding program, was purchased by Corser Thoroughbreds with Arabian Knight in utero for $285,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

#3: Instant Coffee

Bolt d'Oro colt Instant Coffee, with Luis Saez aboard, takes the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. He's back on the work tab, which is great to see, and his next start will likely come in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Candy Ride colt Hit Show, ridden by Manny Franco, captures the Withers

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Practical Move

Practical Move and jockey Ramon Vazquez win the Grade II $400,000 San Felipe Stakes Saturday, March 4, 2023 at Santa Anita Park, Arcadia, CA. Benoit Photo

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move was on this list when it kicked off last month, fell off last week, and returns with a vengeance. His win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip Saturday at Santa Anita, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#6: Litigate

Blame colt Litigate and Luis Saez annex the G3 Sam F. Davis

Pedigree: Blame – Salsa Diavola (by Mineshaft)

Owner: Centennial Farms

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Unlike many of his rivals in the G3 Sam F. Davis, Litigate sat a picture-perfect trip beneath Luis Saez. As a result, the Todd Pletcher trainee got the money and stamped himself as a Derby contender. He was certainly helped by others in the field having considerable traffic trouble, but he's lightly-raced and bred to improve with both distance and experience.

Litigate was bred in Kentucky by Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent, out of the unplaced Mineshaft mare Salsa Diavola. Centennial Farms purchased Litigate for $370,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Salsa Diavola was acquired privately after she was claimed for $12,500 out of a Woodbine maiden claiming race in November 2016.

#7: Tapit Trice

Tapit 3-year-old Tapit Trice scores by eight lengths in a Gulfstream allowance-optional claiming race

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Tapit Trice turned plenty of heads in his first start against winners. He aired by eight lengths against allowance foes at Gulfstream Park and ran the last furlong of the one-mile race in just over 12 seconds. He'll likely be a very heavy favorite in Saturday's G2 Tampa Bay Derby despite going up against 10 rivals, and anything close to that last-out effort would make this runner tough to beat.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#8: Geaux Rocket Ride

Candy Ride colt Geaux Rocket Ride is a stylish debut winner January 29 at Santa Anita

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#9: Angel of Empire

Angel of Empire winning the Risen Star under Luis Saez

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the G2 Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet.

#10: Confidence Game

Confidence Game (Candy Ride) wins the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn on 2.25.23. Jame Graham up, Keith Desormeaux trainer, Don't Tell My Wife Stables owner.

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

Support our journalism

If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.

#11: Rocket Can

Rocket Can wins the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull, which Rocket Can won. However, he came back to run second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, and there's no shame in chasing last year's champion 2-year-old male home. Bill Mott knows how to develop a horse with experience and seasoning, so this one can't be counted out (especially since he likely already has enough points to make the Derby field).

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#12: Raise Cain

Violence colt Raise Cain and Jose Lezcano following their win in the G3 Gothan

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. Raise Cain's record looks far better if you toss the clunker he ran over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, and I think there's plenty to intrigue those looking for bigger prices on the Derby trail.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#13: Dubyuhnell

Good Magic colt Dubyuhnell, ridden by Jose Ortiz, takes the G2 Remsen

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. Assuming he's bounced out of that race in good health, the G2 Remsen winner will almost certainly get another shot at Kentucky Derby points later this season.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#14: Red Route One

Red Route One breaks his maiden at Kentucky Downs, with Vincent Cheminaud aboard

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

Red Route One picked up another significant check when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be seventh on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, but he could give Steve Asmussen another shot at the Derby win that has, to this point, eluded him.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#15: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year, and his first published work since that Tampa Bay win came last Friday. However, there's no denying his potential, and he'll almost certainly get a shot at a 100-point Kentucky Derby prep race in a few weeks.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

[Story Continues Below]

#16: Sun Thunder

Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 24

Sun Thunder couldn't keep up with Arabian Knight two back in the Southwest, where he ran a distant fourth, but stepped forward to run a close-up second in the Risen Star. He broke last that day but put forth a big rally and was outkicked by only Angel of Empire. Another in-the-money finish likely puts him in the Derby starting gate, which would give McPeek a chance at the one Triple Crown race he has yet to win.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#17: Mage

Mage breaks his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Like Geaux Rocket Ride, Mage was aggressively placed in a graded stakes race after a first-out maiden win, and he had an unlucky trip in the Fountain of Youth. He moved early (and wide) after a slow start, was between horses around the far turn, and couldn't keep up with Forte. An argument can be made he was second-best in that event, and I hope he gets another shot at Derby points in a few weeks.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#18: Skinner

Curlin colt Skinner kicks clear to break his maiden going a mile Feb. 12 at Santa Anita

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

The final new addition to this list, Skinner made a big middle move in the San Felipe before flattening out a bit to be third. It's possible he was asked for too much too early, and he didn't save much ground while making his move. A luckier trip next time out may very well get him the points he needs to make the Derby field, and he's got a pedigree that indicates more distance won't be an issue.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#19: Arctic Arrogance

Arctic Arrogance wins the Sleepy Hollow Stakes, with Jose Lezcano aboard, during the Belmont at the Big A meeting.

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He missed the Gotham, which was unfortunate, but he returned to the work tab Wednesday and remains possible for next month's G2 Wood Memorial.

#20: Two Phil's

Hard Spun colt Two Phil's, ridden by Jareth Loveberry, rolls to a convincing win in the G3 Street Sense

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 23

Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (yes, this will be a running gag for as long as this horse is in the mix). The Risen Star wasn't kind to horses near the front. Of the top six after six furlongs, only Two Phil's, who was third then and at the wire, finished in the top five. In finishing third, he beat some pretty accomplished horses, and that's enough to keep him (and the homages to the greatest horse racing commercial in media history) on this list.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Forte’s Still Forte…Uh-Oh… appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Where Do The Baffert/Yakteen Horses Slot In?

The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is starting to ramp up, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

After a one-week break, the Derby Bubble is back uninterrupted until the first Saturday in May. Each week, I'll have a list of my top 20 Kentucky Derby contenders, and the list is prone to changing significantly from one week to another.

This particular one contains several seismic shifts. We saw longshots win both the G2 Risen Star and the G2 Rebel, and several of Bob Baffert's top Kentucky Derby contenders are now eligible to earn Derby points after being moved to different barns. Next week's could look very different, too, given the trio of preps on tap this weekend across the country.

Let's dive in, shall we?

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Forte defeats Cave Rock in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, when he won three straight Grade 1 races (including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile). He's been working steadily ahead of his return, which comes in Saturday's Grade 2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. If Forte has moved forward at all off of his Eclipse Award-winning campaign a season ago, the rest of this group has him to catch.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Arabian Knight

Southwest winner Arabian Knight, with John Velazquez aboard

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Borealis Night (by Astrology)

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

I mentioned two weeks ago that, had Arabian Knight been eligible to earn Derby points, he would not be lower than second. Now that he's able to do that, here he is. He's romped in two starts, including January's G3 Southwest at Oaklawn Park. That day's runner-up, Red Route One, came back to flatter this one a bit by running a close-up second in Saturday's Rebel. Arabian Knight may only have one chance to earn Kentucky Derby points, but it's likely he'll be a pretty heavy favorite in that outing.

Arabian Knight was bred in Kentucky by Corser Thoroughbreds, out of the unplaced Astrology mare Borealis Night. He sold to Scott and Evan Dilworth for $250,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was purchased by Zedan Racing Stables for $2.3 million at last year's Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Borealis Night, a product of the Stonestreet Farm breeding program, was purchased by Corser Thoroughbreds with Arabian Knight in utero for $285,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

#3: Instant Coffee

Bolt d'Oro colt Instant Coffee, with Luis Saez aboard, takes the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. He's back on the work tab, which is great to see, and his next start will likely come in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

HIt Show and Manny Franco en route to winning the G3 Withers

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Litigate

Pedigree: Blame – Salsa Diavola (by Mineshaft)

Owner: Centennial Farms

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Unlike many of his rivals in the G3 Sam F. Davis, Litigate sat a picture-perfect trip beneath Luis Saez. As a result, the Todd Pletcher trainee got the money and stamped himself as a Derby contender. He was certainly helped by others in the field having considerable traffic trouble, but he's lightly-raced and bred to improve with both distance and experience.

Litigate was bred in Kentucky by Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent, out of the unplaced Mineshaft mare Salsa Diavola. Centennial Farms purchased Litigate for $370,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Salsa Diavola was acquired privately after she was claimed for $12,500 out of a Woodbine maiden claiming race in November 2016.

#6: Blazing Sevens

Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) and jockey Flavien Prat win the Champagne (Gr I) at Belmont at the Big A (Aqueduct Racetrack) 10/1/22. Trainer: Chad Brown. Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing, LLC

Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)

Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing

Trainer: Chad Brown

Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Blazing Sevens didn't do a lot wrong during his 2-year-old season. He won one Grade 1 (the Champagne), finished third in another (the Hopeful), and ran fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after probably losing all chance at the start. He's been working steadily at Payson Park ahead of his 3-year-old debut, but that doesn't come in an easy spot. He'll tackle Forte (and several other prominent 3-year-olds) in the Fountain of Youth.

Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#7: Tapit Trice

Tapit 3-year-old Tapit Trice scores by eight lengths in a Gulfstream allowance-optional claiming race

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Tapit Trice turned plenty of heads in his first start against winners. He aired by eight lengths against allowance foes at Gulfstream Park and ran the last furlong of the one-mile race in just over 12 seconds. His next start will almost certainly come against much stiffer competition, but if anyone can move a 3-year-old ahead in a hurry, it's Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#8: Angel of Empire

Angel of Empire winning the Risen Star under Luis Saez

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

New to this list, Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet.

#9: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game tops the Derby leaderboard after his win in the Rebel, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward Saturday, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#10: Rocket Can

Into Mischief colt Rocket Can, guided by Junior Alvarado, wins the G3 Holy Bull from stablemate Shadow Dragon

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull. Speed figures weren't kind to it, either, but Rocket Can did win while racing wide the whole way around the Gulfstream Park oval. Bill Mott's runners usually improve with experience, too, so while that prep was on the slow side, there may still be plenty to like here. We'll know more after the Fountain of Youth, which represents a much stiffer class test.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

Support our journalism

If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.

#11: Dubyuhnell

Good Magic colt Dubyuhnell, ridden by Jose Ortiz, takes the G2 Remsen

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. Assuming he's bounced out of that race in good health, the G2 Remsen winner will almost certainly get another shot at Kentucky Derby points later this season.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#12: Red Route One

Red Route One breaks his maiden at Kentucky Downs, with Vincent Cheminaud aboard

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

Red Route One picked up another significant check on Saturday, when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be fourth on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, but he could give Steve Asmussen another shot at the Derby win that has, to this point, eluded him.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#13: National Treasure

National Treasure

Pedigree: Quality Road – Treasure (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Like the horse immediately ahead of him on this list, National Treasure is still eligible for a first-level allowance, but he's put forth big efforts in big races. He was second to Cave Rock in the G1 American Pharoah and third behind Forte in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and I think his effort in the G3 Sham was fine. He got caught in some traffic that day and has every right to improve in Saturday's G2 San Felipe at Santa Anita.

National Treasure was bred in Kentucky by Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Treasure. He was purchased by the SF/Starlight/Madaket group for $500,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale. Treasure raced as a homebred for Blum, joining second dam Proposal, third dam Lady of Choice, fourth dam Chosen Lady, and fifth dam Mine Only as products of Blum's breeding program.

#14: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, and he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year. However, while time isn't necessarily on his side (he may only have a chance at one Kentucky Derby prep race), there's no denying this regally-bred colt's potential.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#15: Lugan Knight

Lugan Knight breaks his maiden at Keeneland on Oct. 21

Pedigree: Goldencents – Sly Roxy (by Speightstown)

Owner: BG Stables

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Breeder: BG Stables (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Lugan Knight made the lead in the Jerome, and things looked dicey when Arctic Arrogance ranged up alongside him turning for home. However, this colt found more beneath Dylan Davis and fended off a runner that came back to run second in the Withers. Lugan Knight returns in Saturday's G3 Gotham, and he'll have his work cut out for him. He's part of a full field that could number as many as 14 horses.

Lugan Knight was bred in Kentucky by BG Stables, out of the winning Speightstown mare Sly Roxy. His second dam is two-time Canadian champion Roxy Gap.

[Story Continues Below]

#16: Sun Thunder

Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 24

Sun Thunder couldn't keep up with Arabian Knight two back in the Southwest, where he ran a distant fourth, but stepped forward to run a close-up second in the Risen Star. He broke last that day but put forth a big rally and was outkicked by only Angel of Empire. Another in-the-money finish likely puts him in the Derby starting gate, which would give McPeek a chance at the one Triple Crown race he has yet to win.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#17: Arctic Arrogance

Arctic Arrogance wins the Sleepy Hollow Stakes, with Jose Lezcano aboard, during the Belmont at the Big A meeting.

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He also ran second in both the Remsen (behind Dubyuhnell) and the Jerome (behind Lugan Knight). He'll miss Saturday's Gotham, however, due to an illness.

#18: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 23

Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (yes, this will be a running gag for as long as this horse is in the mix). The Risen Star wasn't kind to horses near the front. Of the top six after six furlongs, only Two Phil's, who was third then and at the wire, finished in the top five. In finishing third, he beat some pretty accomplished horses, and that's enough to keep him (and the homages to the greatest horse racing commercial in media history) on this list.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#19: Curly Jack

Good Magic colt Curly Jack takes the 2022 Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs

Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)

Owner: Michael McLoughlin

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 17

Curly Jack stays on this list (albeit barely) despite a one-paced sixth in the Risen Star. I don't think he had the best of trips that day, and he's shown too much at Churchill Downs to dismiss should he make the Derby field. He won the G3 Iroquois, was second in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club, and has a right to improve off of his 2023 debut (which doubled as his first start in nearly three months).

Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. 

#20: Cyclone Mischief

Cyclone Mischief

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables, Castleton Lyons

Trainer: Dale Romans

Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Dale Romans was very high on Cyclone Mischief earlier this year, and for good reason. His January allowance win, where he drubbed next-out Sam F. Davis winner Litigate by nearly six lengths, was outstanding. However, he was a non-threatening seventh as the 6/5 favorite in the Holy Bull. He makes for a fascinating study in Saturday's Fountain of Youth. If you like him, he'll be a price, but the waters are considerably deeper. Either way, we should know far more about him after that event.

Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Where Do The Baffert/Yakteen Horses Slot In? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Who Leads At The First Point Of Call?

The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is starting to ramp up, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

It's an honor and a privilege to be back for another year of the Derby Bubble. With the exception of next week, I'll be here on a weekly basis leading up to the first Saturday in May. There will likely be significant movement from one set of rankings to another, and it's always fun see the Kentucky Derby picture come into focus.

One note before we get started: Currently, horses trained by Bob Baffert cannot accrue Kentucky Derby points and, therefore, cannot run in the Kentucky Derby. As such, I will not be including Baffert-trained horses in these rankings.

Should circumstances change, or should horses be officially moved to other barns, those horses would be Derby-eligible, and they'd be included here. The Baffert barn currently has some of the top 3-year-olds in the country (including Arabian Knight, who would otherwise be ranked no lower than second), so that makes this initial list even more challenging.

With that in mind, here's the first top-20 list!

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Irad Ortiz Jr. celebrates Forte's Breeders' Cup Juvenile victory

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, when he won three straight Grade 1 races (including the Breeders' Cup Juvenile). He's been working steadily ahead of his return, which could come within the next few weeks. If he's moved forward off of his 2022 form, he's the 3-year-old every other horse in this list has to catch up to.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Victory Formation

Trainer Brad Cox's Victory Formation tallies a three-length triumph under Flavien Prat in the Smarty Jones

Pedigree: Tapwrit – Smart N Soft (by Smart Strike)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm, Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

You'll see Brad Cox's name on this list a lot, and this one may be the best 3-year-old in his barn. Victory Formation is a perfect three-for-three and will likely go favored in Saturday's Grade 2 Risen Star at Fair Grounds. His win in the listed Smarty Jones was very good, and his two-back allowance win has aged well (third-place finisher Lugan Knight won last month's Jerome at Aqueduct).

Victory Formation was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the winning Smart Strike mare Smart N Soft. He sold as a weanling for $100,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, then he brought $150,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Yearling Sale, and he sold to his current ownership for $340,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale. Gainesway purchased Smart N Soft pregnant to Uncle Mo for $140,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November Sale.

#3: Instant Coffee

Bolt d'Oro colt Instant Coffee, outside, en route to victory in the G3 Lecomte

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte a few weeks ago, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. If there's a negative here, it's that, as of this writing, he hasn't had a published workout since the Lecomte victory.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Hit Show and jockey Manny Franco cruised to a 5 ½ length win in the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack for owners Gary and Mary West and trainer Brad Cox.

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Yep, one barn holds down the second, third, and fourth spots on this list. A winner of three of four starts, Hit Show cruised home to win Saturday's G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced eventual Preakness winner Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Litigate

Blame colt Litigate and Luis Saez annex the G3 Sam F. Davis

Pedigree: Blame – Salsa Diavola (by Mineshaft)

Owner: Centennial Farms

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Unlike many of his rivals in the G3 Sam F. Davis (some of whom we'll get to later; that's called foreshadowing, kids!), Litigate sat a picture-perfect trip beneath Luis Saez. As a result, the Todd Pletcher trainee got the money and stamped himself as a Derby contender. He was certainly helped by others in the field having considerable traffic trouble, but he's lightly-raced and bred to improve with both distance and experience.

Litigate was bred in Kentucky by Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent, out of the unplaced Mineshaft mare Salsa Diavola. Centennial Farms purchased Litigate for $370,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Salsa Diavola was acquired privately after she was claimed for $12,500 out of a Woodbine maiden claiming race in November 2016.

#6: Blazing Sevens

Good Magic colt Blazing Sevens wins the G1 Champagne

Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)

Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing

Trainer: Chad Brown

Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Blazing Sevens didn't do a lot wrong during his 2-year-old season. He won one Grade 1 (the Champagne), finished third in another (the Hopeful), and ran fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile after probably losing all chance at the start. He's been working steadily at Payson Park ahead of his 3-year-old debut, which should be coming sooner rather than later.

Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#7: Tapit Trice

Tapit 3-year-old Tapit Trice scores by eight lengths in a Gulfstream allowance-optional claiming race

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Tapit Trice turned plenty of heads in his first start against winners. He aired by eight lengths against allowance foes earlier this month at Gulfstream Park and ran the last furlong of the one-mile race in just over 12 seconds. His next start will almost certainly come against much stiffer competition, but if anyone can move a 3-year-old ahead in a hurry, it's Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#8: Rocket Can

Rocket Can wins the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull. Speed figures weren't kind to it, either, but Rocket Can did win while racing wide the whole way around the Gulfstream Park oval. Bill Mott's runners usually improve with experience, too, so while that prep was on the slow side, there may still be plenty to like here.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#9: Curly Jack

Good Magic colt Curly Jack takes the 2022 Iroquois (G3) at Churchill Downs

Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)

Owner: Michael McLoughlin

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al

Kentucky Derby points: 17

A six-start 2-year-old campaign isn't as common as it used to be, and Curly Jack accomplished plenty in his. Most notably, he ran several strong races beneath the Twin Spires in winning the G3 Iroquois and running second in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. His 3-year-old debut will come in Saturday's Risen Star, and he might need to bring that Churchill form with him to best 13 rivals (including several that are on this list).

Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. 

#10: Dubyuhnell

Good Magic colt Dubyuhnell, ridden by Jose Ortiz, takes the G2 Remsen

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. Assuming he's bounced out of that race in good health, the G2 Remsen winner will almost certainly get another shot at Kentucky Derby points later this season.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

Support our journalism

If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.

#11: Kingsbarns

Spendthrift Farm's Uncle Mo colt Kingsbarns captures career debut under Luis Saez

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, and he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year. However, while time isn't necessarily on his side (he may only have a chance at one Kentucky Derby prep race), there's no denying this regally-bred colt's potential.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#12: Lugan Knight

Lugan Knight, with Dylan Davis aboard, winner of the Jerome

Pedigree: Goldencents – Sly Roxy (by Speightstown)

Owner: BG Stables

Trainer: Michael McCarthy

Breeder: BG Stables (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Lugan Knight made the lead in the Jerome, and things looked dicey when Arctic Arrogance ranged up alongside him turning for home. However, this colt found more beneath Dylan Davis and fended off a runner that came back to run second in the Withers. There are some distance questions here given his pedigree, but McCarthy conditioned a winner of a Triple Crown race just two years ago, when Rombauer sprang an upset in the Preakness.

Lugan Knight was bred in Kentucky by BG Stables, out of the winning Speightstown mare Sly Roxy. His second dam is two-time Canadian champion Roxy Gap.

#13: Arctic Arrogance

Arctic Arrogance, with Jose Lezcano aboard.

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He also ran second in both the Remsen (behind Dubyuhnell) and the Jerome (behind Lugan Knight). Another New York start likely awaits for this New York-bred, and another in-the-money finish could be enough to punch his ticket to Kentucky.

#14: Two Phil's

Hard Spun colt Two Phil's, ridden by Jareth Loveberry, rolls to a convincing win in the G3 Street Sense

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 8

Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (I'm sorry, I had to). The form of Two Phil's looks much better if you can forgive his clunker in the G1 Breeders' Futurity. Do that, and you have a horse that won the G3 Street Sense over the Churchill surface and was a clear second behind Instant Coffee in the Lecomte. Several very promising horses will line up alongside this one in the Risen Star, but the Lecomte victor is conspicuously absent.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

[Story Continues Below]

#15: Giant Mischief

Giant Mischief wins an allowance optional claiming race at Keeneland

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Vertical Oak (by Giant Oak)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm, Stonestreet Stables, Steve Landers Racing, Et al

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Giant Mischief ran a huge race second time out at Keeneland, when he won a seven-furlong allowance race in 1:22.30. He was then compromised by an awful start in the listed Springboard Mile at Remington Park, where he settled for second. He's since posted some head-turning workouts at Fair Grounds in the past few weeks. That makes him another potential contender in a loaded barn looking for either its first or second Kentucky Derby victory (depending on how you view the events of 2021, which still haven't been finalized in a court of law nearly two years later).

Giant Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC, out of the Grade 2-winning Giant Oak mare Vertical Oak. He sold for $475,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Stonestreet acquired Vertical Oak, with Giant Mischief in-utero, for $700,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#16: Cyclone Mischief

Into Mischief colt Cyclone Mischief, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, draws off to win an allowance-optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables, Castleton Lyons

Trainer: Dale Romans

Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

Dale Romans was very high on Cyclone Mischief earlier this month, and for good reason. His January allowance win, where he drubbed next-out Sam F. Davis winner Litigate by nearly six lengths, was outstanding. However, he was a non-threatening seventh as the 6/5 favorite in the Holy Bull. There's still time left for him to bounce back before the Derby, though, and anything close to his two-back form would make him a formidable foe.

Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#17: Practical Move

Practical Move and jockey Ramon Vazquez winning the Los Alamitos Futurity

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Practical Move was the fourth choice in a five-horse field in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity, but he took to two turns like a duck to water, drawing away to win by more than three lengths. He has yet to make his 3-year-old debut, but he's been working consistently at Santa Anita and could get a chance in a high-profile Derby prep fairly soon. Odd fact: One of this horse's co-breeders is trainer Chad Brown (he trained stakes-placed dam Ack Naughty from 2014 to 2017).

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#18: Groveland

Groveland breaks his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs.

Pedigree: Street Sense – Lucknow (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: Eoin Harty

Breeder: Godolphin (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 8

Groveland's trip in the Sam F. Davis wasn't quite as poor as the ones experienced by some of his rivals, but he had some rough racing luck. He was shut off on the rail going into the far turn and seemed to lose interest when Litigate swept by, but he re-rallied to run second (and did so in a way where Litigate wasn't pulling away at the wire). He almost certainly needs to move forward off of that effort, but I think there's reason to believe he can do so.

Groveland was bred in Kentucky by Godolphin, out of the winning Medaglia d'Oro mare Lucknow, who also raced a homebred for the operation of Sheikh Mohammed Al-Maktoum. Lucknow, a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Better Lucky, sold in-foal to Frosted for $35,000 at the 2022 Keeneland January sale.

#19: Red Route One

Red Route One breaks his maiden at Kentucky Downs, with Vincent Cheminaud aboard

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 13

The owner/trainer combination that suffered a horrendous beat in last year's Derby may be back with another runner this May. Red Route One is still eligible for a first-level allowance, but he's picked up some pretty big checks. He ran third in last year's Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland and rallied from last to be second behind Arabian Knight in the G3 Southwest.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#20: Shadow Dragon

Shadow Dragon

Pedigree: Army Mule – Fire Assay (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: Peachtree Stable

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: AJ Suited (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 8

Last October's Sleepy Hollow Stakes turned out to be a pretty significant race. The winner, Arctic Arrogance, has run second in three straight races on the Derby trail. The sixth-place finisher, Shadow Dragon, pretty clearly bounced off of a solid first-out win that day and came back to run a close-up second in the Holy Bull. That race at Gulfstream wasn't the most highly-regarded event, but Gulfstream is also not always kind to closers, and this one ran pretty well in what was just his third lifetime start.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Who Leads At The First Point Of Call? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Hurry Up And Wait After Final Prep

We're less than three months away from the first Saturday in May, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the Kentucky Derby starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check the Paulick Report every week for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

This season's Kentucky Derby preps have come and gone. Barring defections, the top 20 spots on the Derby leaderboard are locked up, and we know which horses are likely to enter the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.

Up until this point, this list had been a hybrid of one handicapper's opinion and runners likely to make the field. Now, though, we can exclusively focus on the top 20 horses on the leaderboard.

Let's take a look!

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Epicenter

Pedigree: Not This Time – Silent Candy (by Candy Ride)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Kentucky Derby points: 164

Epicenter didn't just win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. He did it in exactly the right way. He showed he could rate just off the speed, even taking some dirt in his face going up the backstretch. When called upon, he swooped past the front-runners and had plenty left late. It was as perfect a final prep as the connections could've hoped for, and he may very well be your Kentucky Derby favorite.

Epicenter was bred in Kentucky by Westwind Farms, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes winner Silent Candy. He sold for $260,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Westwind Farms bought Silent Candy pregnant to Scat Daddy for $130,000 in 2014.

#2: Taiba

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Needmore Flattery (by Flatter)

Owner: Zedan Racing Stables

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Kentucky Derby points: 100

An unraced maiden in early-March, Taiba emerged as a possible Kentucky Derby favorite with a win in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He topped stablemate Messier and San Felipe winner Forbidden Kingdom and did so in professional fashion, looking like anything but a lightly-raced 3-year-old going two turns for the first time. Can a horse with just two starts under his belt win the Kentucky Derby for the first time since 1883? We'll find out in just a few short weeks.

Taiba was bred in Kentucky by Bruce Ryan, out of the 14-time stakes-winning Flatter mare Needmore Flattery. The dam was a homebred for Ryan and Tim Hamm's Blazing Meadows Farm. Taiba sold as a yearling for $140,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale, and he later brought $1.7 million at the following year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#3: Zandon

Pedigree: Upstart – Memories Prevail (by Creative Cause)

Owner: Jeff Drown

Trainer: Chad Brown

Kentucky Derby points: 114

Zandon needed to run well in the G1 Blue Grass to make the field. In rallying from way back beneath a masterful ride from Flavien Prat, he did just that and showed a lot of the traits one looks for in a potential Derby horse. Brown has yet to win the Derby, and this may be one of the better chances he's had to date.

Zandon was bred in Kentucky by Brereton C. Jones of Airdrie Stud, and the colt is the first foal to race out of the unraced dam. Zandon sold as a yearling for $170,000 from the Airdrie Stud consignment.

#4: Messier

Pedigree: Empire Maker – Checkered Past (by Smart Strike)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, Catherine Donovan, Golconda Stable, and Siena Farm

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Kentucky Derby points: 40

I can't ding Messier too much for losing to Taiba in the Santa Anita Derby. He wasn't far off a pretty fast pace, and he was 10 lengths clear of that day's third-place finisher. It's entirely possible he needed the race off of a brief freshening, and as nice as it would've been to win it, it was another Derby that's long been the main goal for these connections. In running second, Messier punched his ticket to that dance, and he'll have every chance to turn the tables on his stablemate in that event.

#5: White Abarrio

Pedigree: Race Day – Catching Diamonds (by Into Mischief)

Owner: C2 Racing Stable and La Milagrosa Stable

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Kentucky Derby points: 112

White Abarrio jumped up a few spots after his win in the G1 Florida Derby, where he topped Charge It, Simplification, and Classic Causeway, among others. He's never lost at Gulfstream Park, and if his Florida form travels to Kentucky with him, he'll have every chance to give his young trainer his first Kentucky Derby victory.

White Abarrio was bred in Kentucky by Spendthrift Farm, and he is the first foal out of the Into Mischief mare Catching Diamonds. He sold as a newly-turned yearling for $7,500 at the 2020 OBS Winter Mixed Sale. Spendthrift purchased Catching Diamonds as a yearling for $425,000.

#6: Smile Happy

Pedigree: Runhappy – Pleasant Smile (by Pleasant Tap)

Owner: Lucky Seven Stable

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Kentucky Derby points: 70

Similar to Messier, who maintains a high spot despite losing to Taiba, I can't knock Smile Happy too much for his runner-up finish in the Blue Grass. He was wide around both turns and close to the pace on a day where Keeneland's main track wasn't kind to early speed. He still ran well, but was just second-best on the day. We know Smile Happy likes Churchill Downs, and the Derby will be the third start of his form cycle. He has every chance to be sitting on his best race when it matters most.

Smile Happy was bred in Kentucky by Moreau Bloodstock International Inc. and White Bloodstock LLC, out of the winning Pleasant Tap mare Pleasant Smile, whose four starters are all winners, also including the stakes-placed Wilko Rum, by Wilko. Smile Happy sold as a weanling for $175,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, and later brought $185,000 at the Keeneland September Sale.

#7: Charge It

Pedigree: Tapit – I'll Take Charge (by Indian Charlie)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Charge It made just the third start of his young career in the Florida Derby, which doubled as his first try around two turns. He ran in spurts, but did enough to finish second and sew up a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. Several accomplished horses finished behind him that day, and given his inexperience, he's certainly got the potential to move forward. Add in the presence of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, and you have a runner that merits plenty of attention.

Charge It is a Kentucky homebred for Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm, out of the Indian Charlie mare I'll Take Charge. Pope bought the dam as a yearling for $2.2 million at the 2013 Keeneland September sale.

#8: Mo Donegal

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Callingmissbrown (by Pulpit)

Owner: Donegal Racing

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Kentucky Derby points: 112

Mo Donegal, the winner of last year's G2 Remsen, added the G2 Wood Memorial beneath a perfectly-timed move from jockey Joel Rosario, who ran down Early Voting in the shadow of the wire. Rosario likely won't be aboard in Kentucky, but likely rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. is as good a replacement as one can hope to find at this stage.

Mo Donegal was bred in Kentucky by Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables. He brought $250,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September sale.

#9: Cyberknife

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Awesome Flower (by Flower Alley)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Cyberknife punched his ticket to Kentucky with a win in the G1 Arkansas Derby. Unlike heavy favorite Secret Oath and runner-up Barber Road, Cyberknife had a clean trip and made the most of it. His record looks far better if you toss the dud he ran in the G3 Lecomte, and about a month after having no 3-year-olds on the Derby leaderboard, Cox now has three in the field.

Cyberknife was bred in Kentucky by Ken and Sarah Ramsey, out of the Grade 2-placed stakes winner Awesome Flower, who the Ramseys claimed for $30,000 at Gulfstream Park in 2012. The colt sold for $400,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Sale.

#10: Early Voting

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Amour d'Ete (by Tiznow)

Owner: Klaravich Stables

Trainer: Chad Brown

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Early Voting did everything but win in the Wood Memorial. While he made the lead, he had to work to get there, and he still had nearly enough to repel the challenge of Mo Donegal. These connections once skipped the Derby with a lightly-raced horse that went on to win the Preakness (Cloud Computing, in 2017), but as Brown noted in an interview with DRF's David Grening, the owner/trainer tag team had another Derby horse that year (Practical Joke).

Early Voting was bred in Kentucky by Three Chimneys Farm, and he sold as a yearling for $200,000. Three Chimneys bought Amour d'Ete, a half-sister to top sire Speightstown, as a yearling for $1.75 million.

[Story Continues Below]

#11: Simplification

Pedigree: Not This Time – Simply Confection (by Candy Ride)

Owner: Tami Bobo

Trainer: Antonio Sano

Kentucky Derby points: 74

Simplification finished third behind White Abarrio and Charge It in the Florida Derby, and in an age where many top 3-year-olds will have two preps under their belts, it's impressive to see four here. He won the G2 Fountain of Youth and Mucho Macho Man and was second in the G3 Holy Bull.

#12: Zozos

Pedigree: Munnings – Papa's Forest (by Forestry)

Owner: Barry and Joni Butzow

Trainer: Brad Cox

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Zozos ran well when second in the Louisiana Derby. He set a legitimate pace under pressure, and while he was no match for Epicenter, he held second and secured enough points to get him to Kentucky. The pedigree doesn't exactly scream “a mile and a quarter,” but the 1 3/16-mile distance of the Louisiana Derby didn't seem like too much of a problem. With only three starts under his belt, he may have more room to improve.

Zozos is a Kentucky homebred for Barry and Joni Butzow, out of the winning Forestry mare Papa's Forest. The Butzows purchased Papa's Forest as a yearling for $57,000 at the 2011 Keeneland September sale, and she made $233,593 on the racetrack.

#13: Barber Road

Pedigree: Race Day – Encounter (by Southern Image)

Owner: WSS Racing, LLC

Trainer: John Ortiz

Kentucky Derby points: 58

There's something to be said for a horse that just doesn't run a bad race. With the exception of his debut, he's never been worse than third, and that includes five starts in stakes company. He salvaged second behind Cyberknife in the Arkansas Derby, and in doing so, he earned enough Derby points to make the field.

Barber Road was bred in Kentucky by Susan Forrester and Judy Curry, out of the unplaced Southern Image mare Encounter. The mare was a $1,000 purchase out of the 2015 Keeneland November Sale by Scott Conlee, who bred Encounter's future foals in partnership with Forrester and Curry until the latter two acquired full ownership. Barber Road sold as a weanling for $15,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale.

#14: Tiz the Bomb

Pedigree: Hit it a Bomb – Tiz the Key (by Tiznow)

Owner: Magdalena Racing

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Kentucky Derby points: 110

All systems appear “go” for Tiz the Bomb to try dirt again on the biggest stage possible. After an early-season misfire, he won back-to-back Derby preps over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, including the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks (now a 100-point prep). He's got tons of talent, and the distance shouldn't be an issue given his pedigree…but can he run on dirt?

Tiz the Bomb was bred in Kentucky by Spendthrift Farm, out of the winning Tiznow mare Tiz the Key. McPeek, acting as agent, purchased Tiz the Bomb for $330,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Select Yearling Sale. Spendthrift bought Tiz the Key as a yearling for the same price at the 2012 Keeneland September Sale.

#15: Tawny Port

Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile – Livi Makenzie (by Macho Uno)

Owner: Peachtree Stable

Trainer: Brad Cox

Kentucky Derby points: 60

As it turned out, Tawny Port didn't need to run in the G3 Lexington to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby. However, his connections kept him in the race, and their optimism was rewarded with a professional score. He showed he could run well on dirt, but he'll likely need to take a significant step forward in order to contend against the division's heavy hitters next month.

Tawny Port was bred in Kentucky by WinStar Farm, out of the Grade 2-placed stakes winner Livi Makenzie. The colt sold to Fort for $430,000 at the 2020 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. WinStar Farm bought Livi Makenzie as a broodmare prospect for $190,000 at the 2014 Keeneland November Sale, and the operation sold her pregnant to Always Dreaming for $30,000 at the same sale in 2020.

#16: Morello

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Stop the Wedding (by Congrats)

Owner: Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T Racing

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Morello lost all chance at the start of the Wood Memorial and ran last in that event. It was his first start around two turns, and while it's easy to say the race is a throw-out given his poor break, he also didn't do anything to answer the question, “can he go long?” His connections haven't ruled out a spot in the Derby, though, and he'd be safely in the field should they chart a course for that event.

Morello was bred in Kentucky by Robert B. Tillyer and Dr. Chet Blackey, out of the Congrats mare Stop the Wedding. The colt sold as a weanling for $140,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, then he brought $200,000 at the following year's Fasig-Tipton Select Yearling Sale. In 2021, Morello sold for $250,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Stop the Wedding was an $11,000 purchase, pregnant to Cairo Prince, by Tillyer at the 2020 Keeneland January Sale.

#17: Un Ojo

Pedigree: Laoban – Risk a Chance (by A.P. Indy)

Owner: Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ricky Courville

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Un Ojo had a very rough trip in the Arkansas Derby, but he seems to have recovered from that journey. A recent workout inspired his connections to keep the one-eyed New York-bred on the Derby trail, and his upset win in the G2 Rebel means he'll have more than enough points to go postward.

#18: Crown Pride

Pedigree: Reach the Crown – Emmy's Pride (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Teruya Yoshida

Trainer: Koichi Shintani

Kentucky Derby points: 100

With his win in the Group 2 UAE Derby, Crown Pride ensured himself a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. Given the focus on stamina and longevity within the Japanese breeding program, it seems likely they'll win a Derby at some point. I'm just not sure this is the year that happens.

#19: Happy Jack

Pedigree: Oxbow – Tapitstry (by Tapit)

Owner: Calumet Farm

Trainer: Doug O'Neill

Kentucky Derby points: 30

A horse had to run third in the Santa Anita Derby, and a horse had to run third in the G2 San Felipe. This year, Happy Jack filled both spots, and he earned 30 Kentucky Derby points in doing so (enough to back into the field following a recent round of defections). O'Neill has won the Derby twice, but if he does it this year, it will be with one of the longest shots on the board.

Happy Jack is a Kentucky homebred for Calumet Farm, out of the placed Tapit mare Tapitstry. The breeder purchased Tapitstry for $100,000, pregnant to Tizway, at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#20: Summer Is Tomorrow

Pedigree: Summer Front – Always Tomorrow (by Badge of Silver)

Owner: Michael and Negar Burke

Trainer: Bhupat Seemar

Kentucky Derby points: 40

The connections of the UAE Derby runner-up have said they're planning to ship to Kentucky, since their colt has enough points to make the field. He's won two of seven starts in Dubai ahead of his trip to the U.S., and based on his current resume, it's tough to see him as anything other than the longest of longshots.

Summer Is Tomorrow was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the winning Badge of Silver mare Always Tomorrow, who Jones bought for $20,000 at the 2015 Keeneland January Sale. The colt initially sold as a weanling for $25,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, and he later brought $169,743 at the 2021 Arqana Deauville Breeze Up Sale.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Hurry Up And Wait After Final Prep appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Verified by MonsterInsights