Tag: Derby Bubble

The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is in full swing, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

It's crunch time on the road to the Kentucky Derby. A pair of 100-point preps were run last weekend, and we've got three on tap this coming Saturday that feature plenty of horses on this list.

Before we dive in, allow me time for a reminder and two honorable mentions. This, as mentioned last week, is turning into a hybrid list. It's not a straight ranking of 3-year-olds, but a ranking of horses likely to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

The two honorable mentions are Instant Coffee and National Treasure. Instant Coffee got bumped off by horses with more Derby points, while National Treasure needs a top-two finish in Saturday's Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby to ensure a spot in the 20-horse field. Both are immensely talented horses, and a straight “most talented horses in the division” list would have them on it in fairly high spots, but they miss out for those reasons (at least for right now).

With that out of the way, let's dive right in to a list led by the same horse that's topped my rankings since they started…

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 190

Let me get this straight. Last year's champion 2-year-old male breaks from post #11 at Gulfstream Park, where horses breaking from post #11 going 1 1/8 miles may as well be starting in Pete Aiello's announcer's booth, in last Saturday's G1 Florida Derby. He takes dirt the whole way around, gives Mage (a good horse) a two-length head start turning for home, wins anyway to earn his fourth Grade 1 win at a third different track…and according to some in the game, I'm supposed to think his status at the top of this list should be threatened? Nope. To me, Forte is the clear frontrunner in this division heading into the Kentucky Derby, as he has been since last fall.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 154

Don't get me wrong, though: Angel of Empire ran very, very well in Saturday's G1 Arkansas Derby. He never looked like a loser at any point, as he rated off a pace that, despite not looking too fast, didn't hold up once the field turned for home. He did a lot of things right at Oaklawn, and he goes into the Derby with two straight high-profile graded stakes wins (having also won the G2 Risen Star earlier this season).

#3: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Tapit Trice was visually impressive in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He broke slowly and was pumped on throughout by Luis Saez, but ran by them all and looked like a horse that will have no problems with even more distance. There are some red flags here, though. He's broken slowly a few times now, and it's not like he was rallying past world-beaters. It might be far tougher to run like that against stiffer competition, but the plan is for him to get that test in this Saturday's G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. The question is, can he overcome the rail draw?

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. His final Derby prep comes in Saturday's G2 Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, where he figures to be a pretty heavy favorite despite drawing post #13 in a 13-horse field.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move's win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip that day, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place. He'll have another chance to solidify his status in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#6: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward. He will, however, need to earn some points Saturday at Santa Anita to ensure a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#7: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#8: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Mage makes a significant move up this week after running big to be second in the Florida Derby. He didn't break well Saturday, but he made an eye-catching move into contention going around the far turn before being run down by the top horse on this list. This is twice in as many two-turn starts that he's found some trouble, which isn't the best thing, but on the other hand, he's inexperienced enough to where he may still be learning and developing. Either way, he showed plenty this past weekend.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#9: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the G2 Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#10: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

There was a lot to like about Disarm's run in the Louisiana Derby. He had significant traffic trouble and rated in a race with a pretty slow pace. However, he was the closer moving best of all late in just the fourth start of his young career. He's bred to go long, and the 10-furlong distance of the Run for the Roses shouldn't be a problem.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#11: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 123

When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli last month, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte and Angel of Empire, he may have to do just that.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#12: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. He'll get a much bigger test in Saturday's Blue Grass, where he'll have to navigate a trip from the #10 post against Tapit Trice (and many others).

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#13: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Horses from the land of the rising sun swept the top four positions in the G2 UAE Derby at Meydan. Derma Sotogake did it easily, too, leading every step of the way and having plenty left when called upon turning for home. That's all great, but the record of UAE Derby alumni in the Kentucky Derby is absolutely abysmal. At some point, a horse will buck that trend, and at some point a Japan-based horse will almost certainly win the Kentucky Derby, but is this the year?

#14: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

A photo for third place in the Arkansas Derby saw Reincarnate edge Rocket Can. In doing so, the gray likely earned enough Derby points to ensure a spot in this year's field (a fourth-place finish would've put him in a precarious spot). Prior to that effort, Reincarnate won the G3 Sham at Santa Anita while in the barn of Bob Baffert before running third in the Rebel for Yakteen (where he earned the rest of his points).

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#15: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull before running into Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native, which played a role in this colt shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. It's not like he ran terribly to be fourth behind Angel of Empire, but if you were expecting a significant move forward Saturday, that's not what you got. Mott has shipped Rocket Can to Churchill, and this one has more than enough points to make the Derby field, but he added a decision on his status for that race has not been made.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#16: Cyclone Mischief

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons

Trainer: Dale Romans

Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Romans was very high on Cyclone Mischief after an impressive score in January. The colt ran a clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, but has since run third to Forte twice. Most recently, he ran head-to-head with Mage turning for home in the Florida Derby before settling for a minor award. He didn't get to save much ground on Saturday, and perhaps he's rounding into form ahead of the first Saturday in May.

Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#17: King Russell

Pedigree: Creative Cause – Believe You Will (by Proud Citizen)

Owner: Brereton Jones and Naber Racing

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

King Russell was the longest shot on the board in the Arkansas Derby, and in the early stages of that race, he ran like it. However, he came flying late and finished second behind Angel of Empire, beating the likes of Reincarnate, Rocket Can, and Red Route One. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance, and Saturday's effort did come in a race where the early pace didn't hold up particularly well, but he's certainly shown an ability to be going the right way when the real running starts.

King Russell was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the unraced Proud Citizen mare Believe You Will, who is herself a homebred full-sister to Jones' 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Second dam El Fasto was also a homebred for Jones.

#18: Jace's Road

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby, and in doing so pretty much clinched a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. There are speed figure questions surrounding that race, and he did have what seemed like a perfect trip, but this is a barn that simply cannot be ignored.

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#19: Dura Erede

Pedigree: Duramente – Marchesa (by Orfevre)

Owner: Three H Racing

Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe

Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

The runner-up in the UAE Derby appeared to have every chance to run down Derma Sotogake when the field turned for home. However, that one found another gear and won as much the best. Dura Erede, though, likely earned enough Derby points to make the field. He won Japan's G1 Hopeful Stakes as a 2-year-old, and the UAE Derby was his first start of 2023.

#20: Wild On Ice

Pedigree: Tapizar – Slamitagain (by Grand Slam)

Owner: Frank Sumpter

Trainer: Joel Marr

Breeder: Frank Sumpter (TX)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

We'll finish off the list with a late Triple Crown nominee. Wild On Ice pulled off a 35-1 shocker in the G3 Sunland Derby, and was supplemented to the prestigious series shortly after that effort. We're still not quite sure yet, though, if all systems are go for the Kentucky Derby. Per Mary Rampellini of the Daily Racing Form, he's expected to work Friday at Sunland and may ship to Kentucky over the weekend.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Forte Continues Doing Forte Things appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is in full swing, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

Spring is upon us, and with it comes some of the final Kentucky Derby prep races of the season. Those include, of course, this weekend's Grade 1 Florida Derby at Gulfstream and G1 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn. The winners of those races receive 100 Kentucky Derby points and ensure spots in that race's starting gate.

With the schedule in mind, this list is going to represent a bit of a hybrid moving forward. There are some horses that I think can do damage on the first Saturday in May that are on the outside looking in because several horses have enough points to make the Derby field. In order to get back on the list, they'll have to earn more points.

The top of this list, though, hasn't been in question for quite some time. With that in mind, let's get to it.

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 90

Despite drawing post #11 in a 12-horse field, Forte will be a heavy favorite in the Florida Derby. Todd Pletcher wasn't crazy about the post, but any sort of improvement second off the layoff will make last year's champion 2-year-old male very, very difficult to beat. Consider this, though: If you think Forte is the Derby winner, you may very well be rooting against him Saturday. While a loss would drive his price up a bit, a win likely makes him the shortest-priced favorite in a May Kentucky Derby since Point Given went off at 9/5 in 2001.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Tapit Trice was visually impressive in the G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He broke slowly and was pumped on throughout by Luis Saez, but ran by them all and looked like a horse that will have no problems with even more distance. There are some red flags here, though. He's broken slowly a few times now, and it's not like he was rallying past world-beaters. It might be far tougher to run like that against tougher competition, but the plan is for him to get that test in next month's G2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#3: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#4: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move's win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip that day, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#5: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in Saturday's G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the G2 Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet. We'll learn more about him Saturday, when he'll run in the Arkansas Derby.

#8: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#9: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull, which Rocket Can won. However, he came back to run second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, and there's no shame in chasing last year's champion 2-year-old male home. Bill Mott knows how to develop a horse with experience and seasoning, so this one can't be counted out. We'll see if he takes another step forward Saturday at Oaklawn.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#10: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Disarm is new to this list, and there was a lot to like about his run in the Louisiana Derby. He had significant traffic trouble and rated in a race with a pretty slow pace. However, he was the closer moving best of all late in just the fourth start of his young career. He's bred to go long, and the 10-furlong distance of the Run for the Roses shouldn't be a problem.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#11: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 123

When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli Saturday, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte, he may have to do just that.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#12: Instant Coffee

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

I can't drop Instant Coffee off this list quite yet. Yes, his run at Fair Grounds was incredibly disappointing. With that said, though, that may have just been a function of the race shape. Disarm, who ran very well, was the only closer who made up any ground late. Instant Coffee may need some help to make the Derby field, but if he does, there's every chance he moves forward going back to a Churchill Downs track he loves for a race that should have more speed signed on.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#13: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. Raise Cain's record looks far better if you toss the clunker he ran over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, and I think there's plenty to intrigue those looking for bigger prices on the Derby trail.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#14: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Here comes Japan, as horses from the land of the rising sun swept the top four positions in the G2 UAE Derby Saturday at Meydan. Derma Sotogake did it easily, too, leading every step of the way and having plenty left when called upon turning for home. That's all great, but the record of UAE Derby alumni in the Kentucky Derby is absolutely abysmal. At some point, a horse will buck that trend, and at some point a Japan-based horse will almost certainly win the Kentucky Derby, but is this the year?

#15: Red Route One

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

Red Route One picked up another significant check when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be fourth on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, and he may have been surpassed by Disarm, who also carried these colors. However, one more solid run in a Derby prep would get Red Route One in the gate.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#16: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restropo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Unlike many of the big names in Saturday's Florida Derby, Mage lucked out at the post position draw. He'll break from post #4, and there are plenty of reasons to believe he's sitting on an improved effort. He had a very unlucky trip when fourth behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, a race that was also his first start against winners and his first try going two turns. That's a lot to throw at a young horse, but one can argue he was second-best that day, and a step forward with an advantageous setup Saturday certainly seems possible.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#17: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

Skinner made a big middle move in the San Felipe before flattening out a bit to be third. It's possible he was asked for too much too early, and he didn't save much ground while making his move. A luckier trip next time out may very well get him the points he needs to make the Derby field, and he's got a pedigree that indicates more distance won't be an issue.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#18: Jace's Road

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby, and in doing so pretty much clinched a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. There are speed figure questions surrounding that race, and he did have what seemed like a perfect trip, but this is a barn that simply cannot be ignored.

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#19: Dubyuhnell

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

The only horse to get shafted worse than Forte at the Florida Derby post position draw was Dubyuhnell. Last year's G2 Remsen winner will break from post #12 in a field of 12, on a track that is far from kind to horses out that far going 1 1/8 miles. Dubyuhnell almost certainly needs a top-three finish to make the Kentucky Derby field, and while I believe he has the ability to do that, he certainly has his work cut out for him on Saturday afternoon.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#20: Dura Erede

Pedigree: Duramente – Marchesa (by Orfevre)

Owner: Three H Racing

Trainer: Manabu Ikezoe

Breeder: Northern Racing (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

The runner-up in the UAE Derby appeared to have every chance to run down Derma Sotogake when the field turned for home. However, that one found another gear and won as much the best. Dura Erede, though, earned enough Derby points to make the field. He won Japan's G1 Hopeful Stakes as a 2-year-old, and the UAE Derby was his first start of 2023.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Japan Has Entered The Chat appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is in full swing, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

There were no Kentucky Derby preps last weekend, so this Derby Bubble is going to look a bit different. In this week's edition, I'll go horse by horse and draw comparisons to runners in past Kentucky Derbies that you might remember.

With the NFL Draft a month away, think of this as a distant cousin of prospect comparisons you'll see on whatever sports network of choice you watch. If nothing else, it's a fun exercise/trip down Memory Lane, so let's get started.

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 90

COMPARISON: Nyquist. Like Forte, Nyquist was the consensus top 2-year-old in his crop, and he came back clearly ahead of the rest of his rivals on the road to the Kentucky Derby. Others passed him later in the year, but Nyquist earned his place in history as just the second Thoroughbred to capture both the Derby and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. It's a list Forte will look to add himself to in less than two months.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Instant Coffee

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

COMPARISON: McCraken. It's easy to forget this, but McCraken won his first four races, including the 2016 G2 Kentucky Jockey Club. The closer showed a clear affinity for Churchill Downs, much like Instant Coffee, who won the 2022 renewal of that race and has since added the G3 Lecomte.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#3: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

COMPARISON: Tapwrit. This is too easy. Son of Tapit? Check. Trained by Todd Pletcher? Check. G3 Tampa Bay Derby winner? Check. Looks like he wants to run all day long? You get the picture. Tapwrit was sixth in the 2017 Derby behind another horse we'll talk about later, but he put it all together five weeks later to take the Belmont.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

COMPARISON: Early Voting. It seems lazy, but there's plenty to like about comparing the last two G3 Withers winners (say THAT five times fast). Both made their stakes debuts in that race without much prior experience, and both won easily. Early Voting skipped the Derby after running second in the G2 Wood, but, of course, took the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

COMPARISON: McKinzie. Both runners won the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity prior to contesting the G2 San Felipe. The difference is, Practical Move had a much, much luckier trip in his renewal. While the Tim Yakteen trainee benefited from saving ground and having plenty of room turning for home, McKinzie was disqualified after a lengthy inquiry. The 2018 runner-up, though, wound up winning several important races later on, including that year's G1 Pennsylvania Derby and the 2019 G1 Whitney.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#6: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

COMPARISON: Paradise Woods. Yes, I'm comparing a colt to a filly, but in my defense, there aren't many times Richard Mandella has jumped a horse into top-tier competition off of a single maiden win. Paradise Woods romped in the G1 Santa Anita Oaks and showed herself as one of the top horses in her division multiple times. Geaux Rocket Ride, meanwhile, showed some maturity far beyond his experience when he re-rallied to run second in the G2 San Felipe.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#7: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

COMPARISON: Mandaloun. The fellow Cox trainee won the 2021 G2 Risen Star, faltered in the G2 Louisiana Derby, and then either won the Kentucky Derby or finished second behind Medina Spirit (depending on who you ask). Angel of Empire, meanwhile, won this year's renewal, and his form looks far better if you draw a line through September's failed try on turf at Kentucky Downs.

#8: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

COMPARISON: Exaggerator. This is another one that just makes too much sense. Exaggerator was a Keith Desormeaux-trained mud freak who chased Nyquist a few times before splashing his way home in the Preakness. Confidence Game is bred up and down for an off track, one he got when he won this year's G2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#9: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

COMPARISON: Upstart. Rocket Can's G3 Holy Bull win was the slowest renewal since the race stretched out to 1 1/16 miles in 2013. That mark was previously held by Upstart, but that's not an unflattering comparison (even though the Rick Violette trainee won just once after that). Upstart finished his career with more than $1.7 million in earnings and placed in six Grade 1 races.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#10: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

COMPARISON: I Want Revenge. Want to feel old? I Want Revenge overcame traffic that may as well have been imported in from Manhattan to win the Wood Memorial 14 years ago, in 2009. Raise Cain is almost certainly not of this caliber yet, but he got stopped going around the far turn in the G3 Gotham, had every excuse to give up the ghost, and instead won going away.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#11: Dubyuhnell

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

COMPARISON: Overanalyze. Overanalyze won the 2012 G2 Remsen Stakes, was eliminated by his trip in his 3-year-old debut, and bounced out of that race to win the G1 Arkansas Derby. Dubyuhnell, meanwhile, won the Remsen 10 years later and had absolutely zero chance in the G3 Sam F. Davis due to terrible racing luck. He's been working steadily in Florida since that effort, though, and figures to get one more shot at Derby points.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#12: Red Route One

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

COMPARISON: Super Stock. Every year, there's at least one closer that clunks up for checks and Derby points with astounding regularity. This year, it's Red Route One, and two years ago, Super Stock fit that mold. Like his fellow Steve Asmussen trainee, Super Stock was eligible for a first-level allowance until the spring of his 3-year-old season. He then won the Arkansas Derby to earn his ticket to Louisville.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#13: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

COMPARISON: Always Dreaming. This is another one too easy to pass up. Like Always Dreaming, Kingsbarns is a Todd Pletcher trainee that the Hall of Famer has taken his time with. Both won races at Tampa Bay Downs when they could've run elsewhere for more money. Always Dreaming developed and took Derbies in Florida and Kentucky. Kingsbarns will have a shot at a Derby of his own, in Louisiana, this Saturday.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#14: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 24

COMPARISON: Country House. The eventual 2019 Derby winner also ran second in the Risen Star in his fourth career start, the beginning of an old-school spring campaign that saw him run in four stakes races in just two and a half months. Sun Thunder, meanwhile, faces off against several horses on this list in Saturday's Louisiana Derby.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#15: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restropo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

COMPARISON: Social Inclusion. Here's a name that'll get folks going. Social Inclusion came out of nowhere to thump Honor Code in that one's 3-year-old debut, and he set a new track record in that effort. Neither Social Inclusion nor Mage raced as 2-year-olds, but they had enough talent to dance plenty of big dances against divisional heavyweights despite their inexperience.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#16: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

COMPARISON: Candy Boy. Candy Boy raced in the same colors as Skinner and made a name for himself on the 2014 Derby trail. He won the G2 Robert B. Lewis before finishing third in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and 13th in the Kentucky Derby. Skinner, meanwhile, was third in the San Felipe and could still have room to grow given his relative inexperience.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#17: Arctic Arrogance

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

COMPARISON: Uncle Sigh. We'll stay in 2014 for this one, as Uncle Sigh, a fellow New York-bred, hadn't been worse than second in any start leading up to that year's Kentucky Derby. Arctic Arrogance has two wins and four seconds to this point, and while he missed the Gotham earlier this month, he remains possible for the Wood Memorial, where another good showing would give him more than enough points to make the Derby field.

#18: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 23

COMPARISON: The Tabulator. Rivelli's known more for sprinters than distance-types, but The Tabulator was briefly on the 2018 Derby trail after a win in the previous year's Iroquois and a fifth-place finish in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile behind Good Magic. There are some distance questions with Two Phil's, but he'll have a chance to show his stamina in Saturday's Louisiana Derby and keep alive references to the greatest horse racing commercial ever made.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#19: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

COMPARISON: Bob and John. This Bob Baffert trainee won the 2006 G3 Sham 17 years before Reincarnate annexed the race earlier this season. The two horses, each not necessarily in the first string of Derby hopefuls for their particular barns at the start of their 3-year-old campaigns, also each ran third in their next starts. Bob and John went on to add the Wood Memorial, and Reincarnate likely needs another strong performance of his own to make the Derby field.

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#20: Curly Jack

Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)

Owner: Michael McLoughlin

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 17

COMPARISON: Lone Star Sky. We're going back 20 years for this one, as this fellow Amoss trainee also did his best work at Churchill Downs. Both runners won stakes races there as 2-year-olds before knocking heads with the best runners in their divisions. In Lone Star Sky's case, he ran 10 times before the Derby, and Curly Jack is also one of the most experienced horses in his generation.

Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. 

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Do These Horses Look Familiar? appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is starting to ramp up, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

There was pretty major news on and off the track this week. We had a 50-point prep won by a highly-touted Todd Pletcher trainee, but that news was bumped off the front pages by the Kentucky Derby trail's first major defections.

Arabian Knight, who'd been sitting in the #2 spot for the past few weeks, was taken out of training. High-profile horses miss the Derby every year, and this time around, he's the first one to cause significant shifts near the top of this list. G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes winner Litigate's defection on Wednesday led to a further reshuffling of the top 10.

The top spot, however, remains unchanged. In fact, he's an even heavier favorite now that Arabian Knight won't be targeting the Run for the Roses…

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 90

It's impossible to start anywhere else. Forte was clearly the best 2-year-old of his class a season ago, and he never looked like a loser in the G2 Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park. Even scarier for his rivals is the fact that this was his first race since the Breeders' Cup, and an effort he may very well have needed. If there's further improvement in store between now and the first Saturday in May…yikes.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Instant Coffee

Pedigree: Bolt d'Oro – Follow No One (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Gold Square LLC

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Sagamore Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 32

Instant Coffee rallied from last to first to win the G3 Lecomte, and he runs like a horse that will have no problem getting the Derby's 1 1/4-mile distance. He also has a graded stakes win over the Churchill Downs surface, which came in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club. He's back on the work tab, which is great to see, and his next start will likely come in the G2 Louisiana Derby.

Instant Coffee was bred in Kentucky by Sagamore Farm, out of the stakes-placed Uncle Mo mare Follow No One. He hammered for $200,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Sagamore Farm purchased Follow No One for $100,000 at the 2016 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#3: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Tapit Trice was visually impressive in Saturday's G2 Tampa Bay Derby. He broke slowly and was pumped on throughout by Luis Saez, but ran by them all and looked like a horse that will have no problems with even more distance. There are some red flags here, though. He's broken slowly a few times now, and it's not like he was rallying past world-beaters Saturday afternoon. It might be far tougher to run like that against tougher competition, but the plan is for him to get that test in next month's G2 Blue Grass at Keeneland.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#4: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

A winner of three of four starts to date, Hit Show cruised home to win the G3 Withers at Aqueduct. It didn't seem like a great field, but he won the right way, overcoming some traffic and having plenty left when the field turned for home. Last year's Withers produced an eventual Preakness winner in Early Voting, and this year's renewal might age well, too.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#5: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move's win in the G2 San Felipe assures him of enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field, and it was his second straight graded stakes win on the SoCal circuit. If there's anything to nitpick, it's that he had a perfect trip Saturday at Santa Anita, but on the other hand, it was his tactical speed that got him into striking position in the first place.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#6: Geaux Rocket Ride

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Beyond Grace (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Pin Oak Stud

Trainer: Richard Mandella

Breeder: OXO Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 20

It spoke volumes that Richard Mandella opted to run Geaux Rocket Ride in the San Felipe off of a single prior outing. The colt rewarded his Hall of Fame conditioner with a strong second, one where he re-rallied after being shuffled back on the far turn. In doing so, he showed plenty of grit, and that, combined with a pedigree that hints more distance will be right up his alley, inspires some confidence moving forward.

Geaux Rocket Ride was bred in Kentucky by Larry Best's OXO Equine, out of the the unplaced Uncle Mo mare Beyond Grace. He sold for $350,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale. Best purchased Beyond Grace for $1.5 million at the 2017 Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Selected 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#7: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Angel of Empire all but assured a spot in the Derby starting gate with his win in the G2 Risen Star. He was a big price that day, but outside of a turf try at Kentucky Downs last fall, he hasn't run a bad race to date. His lone other defeat was a second to Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones when that one got loose on the lead, and a win going 1 1/8 miles isn't something most of these horses have on their resumes yet.

#8: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. The big question: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Hopefully, we'll get an answer sooner rather than later.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#9: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

Much was made about the quality (or lack thereof) in the G3 Holy Bull, which Rocket Can won. However, he came back to run second behind Forte in the Fountain of Youth, and there's no shame in chasing last year's Champion 2-Year-Old Male home. Bill Mott knows how to develop a horse with experience and seasoning, so this one can't be counted out (especially since he likely already has enough points to make the Derby field).

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#10: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

I'd wager I have Raise Cain higher than many who author similar lists. It's true there are things to nitpick about his win in the G3 Gotham. However, I really liked that he overcame some adversity. He was stopped going around the far turn and had an excuse to spit the bit, but he resumed his rally and wound up romping by more than seven lengths. Raise Cain's record looks far better if you toss the clunker he ran over Turfway Park's synthetic surface, and I think there's plenty to intrigue those looking for bigger prices on the Derby trail.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#11: Dubyuhnell

Pedigree: Good Magic – Wild Gams (by Forest Wildcat)

Owner: West Paces Racing, Stonestreet Stables

Trainer: Danny Gargan

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Dubyuhnell ran a non-threatening eighth in the Sam F. Davis, but that effort looks like one you can draw a line through. Like several other runners in that race, he had a nightmarish trip, and the finish was a result of that rather than a regression or lack of ability. He's been working steadily at Palm Meadows for a few weeks now, and there's still time for him to get one more shot at Kentucky Derby points.

Dubyuhnell was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the multiple Grade 3-winning Forest Wildcat mare Wild Gams, whose runners also include Grade 2 winner Cazadero, stakes winner Mt. Brave, and Grade 3-placed Almost Famous. Dubyuhnell brought $400,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, while Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings secured Wild Gams as a broodmare prospect for $1 million at the 2008 Keeneland November sale.

#12: Red Route One

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Red House (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 33

Red Route One picked up another significant check when he rallied to finish second behind Confidence Game in the Rebel. He's still eligible for a first-level allowance race, but he's run enough big races in big spots to be fourth on the Derby leaderboard as of this writing. He doesn't appear to be quite as talented as Epicenter, who ran second for these connections one year ago, but he could give Steve Asmussen another shot at the Derby win that has, to this point, eluded him.

Red Route One was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the unraced Tapit mare Red House, and he is a full-brother to stakes-winner Red Run. Red House is herself a Winchell homebred, out of 2014 Broodmare of the Year Fun House, making her a full-sister to champion Untapable and a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Paddy O'Prado.

#13: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 0

One day after Litigate won the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs, stablemate Kingsbarns demolished a first-level allowance group by nearly eight lengths over the same surface. It was just his second lifetime start, he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 14 of this year, and he's worked just twice since that last-out runaway score. However, there's no denying his potential, and he'll almost certainly get a shot at a 100-point Kentucky Derby prep race in a few weeks.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#14: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R.T. Racing, Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 24

Sun Thunder couldn't keep up with Arabian Knight two back in the Southwest, where he ran a distant fourth, but stepped forward to run a close-up second in the Risen Star. He broke last that day but put forth a big rally and was outkicked by only Angel of Empire. Another in-the-money finish likely puts him in the Derby starting gate, which would give McPeek a chance at the one Triple Crown race he has yet to win.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#15: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restropo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 10

Like Geaux Rocket Ride, Mage was aggressively placed in a graded stakes race after a first-out maiden win, and he had an unlucky trip in the Fountain of Youth. He moved early (and wide) after a slow start, was between horses around the far turn, and couldn't keep up with Forte. An argument can be made he was second-best in that event, and I hope he gets another shot at Derby points in a few weeks.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#16: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

Skinner made a big middle move in the San Felipe before flattening out a bit to be third. It's possible he was asked for too much too early, and he didn't save much ground while making his move. A luckier trip next time out may very well get him the points he needs to make the Derby field, and he's got a pedigree that indicates more distance won't be an issue.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#17: Arctic Arrogance

Pedigree: Frosted – Modest Maven (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Chester and Mary Broman

Trainer: Linda Rice

Breeder: Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (NY)

Kentucky Derby points: 16

Arctic Arrogance has yet to finish out of the top two through six career starts. He set a pressured pace in the Withers and had little left when Hit Show came running, but he held second while well clear of the rest of that field. He missed the Gotham, which was unfortunate, but he's returned to the work tab and remains possible for next month's G2 Wood Memorial.

#18: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 23

Rivelli? I'll include Rivelli (yes, this will be a running gag for as long as this horse is in the mix). The Risen Star wasn't kind to horses near the front. Of the top six after six furlongs, only Two Phil's, who was third then and at the wire, finished in the top five. In finishing third, he beat some pretty accomplished horses, and that's enough to keep him (and the homages to the greatest horse racing commercial in media history) on this list.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#19: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 15

One Tim Yakteen trainee leaves this list, but another comes on. Reincarnate wasn't eligible for Derby points when he won the G3 Sham, since he was still in the Bob Baffert barn at the time. However, he did get on the leaderboard when third in the Rebel despite a troubled trip. I'd argue his losing effort was more impressive than his winning one, and he'll have every chance to build on that in one of the final prep races on the calendar.

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#20: Curly Jack

Pedigree: Good Magic – Connie and Michael (by Roman Ruler)

Owner: Michael McLoughlin

Trainer: Tom Amoss

Breeder: Breeder: Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 17

Returning to this list after a few defections, Curly Jack might have needed his one-paced run in the Risen Star. That was his first effort in a few months, and he had a very busy 2-year-old campaign that included a win in the G3 Iroquois at Churchill Downs. His likely next start comes in the Louisiana Derby, where a top-three finish would almost certainly be enough to ensure a return trip to Louisville.

Curly Jack was bred in Kentucky by the partnership of Betz/J.Betz/Burns/Camaquiki/C.Kidder/et al., out of the Grade 1-placed Roman Ruler mare Connie and Michael, whose runners also include stakes-placed Fannie and Freddie. Curly Jack sold to owner Michael McLoughlin for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. 

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Sorting Out Key Departures And The Tampa Bay Derby appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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