Tag: Derby Bubble

The Kentucky Derby is days away, which means it's time for detailed looks at the field with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

It's time for the final edition of The Derby Bubble. The field for the Run for the Roses is set, and with it comes plenty of speculation from fans and handicappers.

With that in mind, the season finale of this column will include a game called “Good Trip, Bad Trip.”

I'll examine all 20 runners, plus the three also-eligibles. Last year's column in this vein went over really well…right up until a horse I didn't write about drew in off the Also Eligible list and won the darn thing. Never let it be said I make the same mistake twice!

Enough talk; let's dive into the field.

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owners: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Manny Franco

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Hit Show has enough tactical speed to save a ground-saving spot going into the first turn. Not intimidated by the Derby distance, he's among the first set of horses to make their moves when the real running starts. He's not quite talented enough to win, but he avenges his tough beat in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial by earning a big check.

Bad Trip: The rail compromises Hit Show and he's shuffled back in the early going. This puts the stalking-type up against it, and he struggles to gain forward momentum.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#2: Verifying

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)

Owners: Westerberg Limited, Magnier, Poulin, Smith, and Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione

Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Good Trip: Long considered one of the brightest prospects in a loaded Brad Cox barn, Verifying puts it all together. His speed is used as an asset by a rider who knows Churchill Downs as well as anyone, he hits the front turning for home, and unlike in the G1 Blue Grass, he doesn't get caught.

Bad Trip: Like one of his stablemates, the inside draw has the potential to work against him. Verifying doesn't break smoothly, and he's knocked out of his element from the jump (literally). This effort is less his sharp effort in the Blue Grass and more his clunker in the G2 Rebel.

Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

#3: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owners: Patricia's Hope, Sagan, and Madaket Stables

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Jockey: Jareth Loveberry

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Good Trip: The Two Phil's we saw in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks is the real deal. The synthetic track form comes with him to Churchill Downs, and he storms past the field turning for home to record a popular win for a group of Kentucky Derby first-timers. Furthermore, in keeping with widespread interest in Rivelli's barn, the classic commercial gets remade in HD and runs on all major television networks through the Preakness.

Bad Trip: Two Phil's bounces off of what was easily a lifetime-best effort. What we see Saturday is the horse that collected minor awards in Louisiana, and that type of effort doesn't get it done against the best of his crop.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#4: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owners: Don't Tell My Wife Stables and Ocean Reef Racing

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Jockey: James Graham

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: Keith Desormeaux looks like a genius. Confidence Game shows no signs of rust coming off the bench, and the rest allows him the necessary time to develop as a racehorse. He's not good enough to win, but he adds another significant check to Desormeaux's Derby resume.

Bad Trip: The Confidence Game we saw win the G2 Rebel turns out to need a muddy track, which doesn't seem likely this weekend. A horse bred to love a wet track instead gets a fast one, which doesn't play to his strengths and leads to him being a non-factor.

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#5: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owners: Whisper Hill Farm and Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Luis Saez

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 5-1

Good Trip: Tapit Trice gets off to a smooth start, unlike his last several outings. As a result, Luis Saez doesn't have to work so hard to ensure a smooth journey, and his mount's sheer talent can be put on full display. He runs to his pedigree, wins the Kentucky Derby, and provides a feel-good moment for co-owner Whisper Hill Farm, which lost champion Havre de Grace last week.

Bad Trip: Those gate issues flare up again at an inopportune time. Tapit Trice gets shuffled back in front of 150,000 screaming fans, and not even world-class reinsman Saez can navigate a winning trip in that scenario.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Jose Ortiz

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 12-1

Good Trip: Kingsbarns finds himself up front with a slow early pace, in a carbon copy of his winning trip from the G2 Louisiana Derby. A near-certainty to be the biggest price of the three Todd Pletcher trainees despite his undefeated record, Kingsbarns hits the top of the stretch with plenty in reserve. He springs an upset that leaves many handicappers wondering how they didn't have an undefeated Pletcher on their tickets.

Bad Trip: Unlike in Louisiana, Kingsbarns has to face legitimate opposition up front early on. With Verifying to his inside and Derma Sotogake to his outside, Kingsbarns is hounded from the opening strides, never gets comfortable, and retreats going around the far turn.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owners: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: John Velazquez

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Reincarnate runs to his most recent work, a four-furlong bullet drill at Santa Anita. John Velazquez, who's rarely in the wrong place at the wrong time, gives his mount every chance. He's not good enough to win, but he finishes third or fourth at a big number.

Bad Trip: Reincarnate runs to his last start, where he needed to win a photo for third in the G1 Arkansas Derby to ensure his spot in the Kentucky Derby field. He's up close early but fades when the real running starts.

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#8: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owners: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Jockey: Javier Castellano

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 15-1

Good Trip: The phenomenon once known as the Apollo Curse is defied for the second time in less than a decade. Mage, who did not run as a 2-year-old, overcomes the gate issues that have plagued him in his two two-turn outings. In doing so, he gets the clean trip he didn't have in the G1 Florida Derby. That allows him to turn the tables on Forte and give his Hall of Fame rider his first-ever Kentucky Derby win.

Bad Trip: They're off, and Mage loses. Those gate issues prove tough to shake, and he once again spots his rivals several lengths right away. That, his inexperience, and the Kentucky Derby setting combine to form an insurmountable barrier.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#9: Skinner

Pedigree: Curlin – Winding Way (by Malibu Moon)

Owner: C R K Stable

Trainer: John Shirreffs

Jockey: Juan Hernandez

Breeder: Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: A horse on the improve getting one of the hottest jockeys in the country puts it all together thanks to a closer-friendly race shape. Skinner sits back beneath Juan Hernandez, makes one big run, and lights up the tote board to give his conditioner a second Kentucky Derby victory (18 years after his first with another longshot, Giacomo).

Bad Trip: Skinner turns out to have some hang in him. He's called upon to make his move and passes several tired rivals, but starts spinning his wheels in midstretch and can't stay with the more well-bet horses in this particular race.

Skinner was bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, out of the Grade 3-winning Malibu Moon mare Winding Way. He sold for $40,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale, then he was pinhooked for $510,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. Stonestreet bought Winding Way for $660,000 at the 2015 Keeneland November sale.

#10: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Jockey: Ramon Vazquez

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: What's seen by some as a history of perfect trips turns out to be a perfect marriage between a horse with tactical speed and a rider who knows how to use it. He sits the stalking trip that wins a lot of Kentucky Derbies, pounces at just the right time, and has enough left to fend off the closers.

Bad Trip: Yep, everything fell into place in the last several races perfectly for this colt. Maybe he faces adversity, or perhaps he's just not a 10-furlong horse. However, he fades to finish in the middle of the pack and goes back to California to regroup.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#11: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Team Epicenter returns with a less-fancied runner than the one they had a year ago, but they leave with a similar check. Disarm runs back to his Louisiana Derby effort, where he was the only horse making up ground in the stretch. He's not quite talented enough to threaten the winner, but he clunks up for second at a big price.

Bad Trip: Disarm's effort is closer to his run in the G3 Lexington, where he finished a distant third and earned just enough points to make the Derby field. Maybe the race shape isn't so closer-friendly, and maybe he's just not quite good enough to beat these.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#12: Jace's Road

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owners: Albaugh Family Stables and West Point Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Florent Geroux

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: One of the longer shots on the board serves as a pace factor in the early going. He presses the early leaders, gives his connections a brief thrill, and sets things up for a closer (possibly the stablemate breaking two stalls to his outside).

Bad Trip: Jace's Road doesn't come close to making the lead. He starts spinning his wheels going up the backstretch and comes up empty against the best horses of his generation.

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#13: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owners: R.T. Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr.

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: …well, he's had a bunch of unlucky ones lately, hasn't he? On this occasion, though, Sun Thunder gets room to operate, along with plenty of pace for him to close into. He's not talented enough to win the race, but he cashes a big check for his connections and earns a spot in the hearts of those who use him at a huge number in tri's and super's.

Bad Trip: It's easier than ever to find trouble in a setting like this one, and Sun Thunder's trend of doing so rears up again. As a result, the late-running longshot is never seriously involved.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#14: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Jockey: Flavien Prat

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Morning Line Odds: 8-1

Good Trip: A horse that's taken steps forward with every start this season takes another one. Angel of Empire sits a perfect trip beneath his world-class rider, and it's a carbon copy of the G1 Arkansas Derby. He loops the leaders going around the far turn, hits the top of the stretch in front, and powers home as much the best.

Bad Trip: The pace doesn't fall apart as much as his last two starts. Instead of closing into a race that's falling apart, the early pace factors have something left in the tank. As such, Angel of Empire's closing kick is nowhere near as effective, and he doesn't run to his billing.

#15: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owners: Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 3-1

Good Trip: Forte does what he's done in every one of his last five starts: He wins. A closer with more tactical speed than it sometimes appears, Forte uses that speed to sit a dream trip a few lengths off the pace. Unlike in the Florida Derby, it's Forte who gets the jump on his rivals, rather than having to sit back, and turning for home, the rest of the field has the reigning 2-year-old champ to catch. That proves easier said than done, and Pletcher gets his third Derby win.

Bad Trip: The speed figure handicappers prove correct, and Forte hasn't moved forward from his 2-year-old season. His usual race is enough for a check, but it's not the big one, and anti-chalk players rejoice at having found a vulnerable favorite on the first Saturday in May.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#16: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owners: Warren and Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Jockey: Gerardo Corrales

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Remember how Rich Strike won last year, with a few horses going crazy up front? That scenario sort of materializes for a runner that capitalized on it once already with his score in the G3 Gotham. It doesn't mean Raise Cain wins, but he's moving forward when many others have given up the ghost, and that leads to an in-the-money finish.

Bad Trip: A horse that's 0-for-3 in two-turn races is shown to be a one-turn closer. This just isn't what he wants to do, and when other closers are starting their runs, Raise Cain simply can't keep up.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#17: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Jockey: Christophe Lemaire

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 10-1

Good Trip: Derma Sotogake hits the front early and forgets to stop. His G2 UAE Derby trip repeats itself, and while it looks like the American runners have every chance to reel him in turning for home, they can't do it. Japan wins its first Kentucky Derby, and American breeders are faced with the realization that the rest of the world is catching up.

Bad Trip: The UAE Derby curse continues. Derma Sotogake either can't make the front or has to spend too much energy doing so. This field proves tougher than the one he demolished at Meydan, and he retreats through the field as they turn for home.

#18: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Junior Alvarado

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: A horse that's been working well since coming to Churchill Downs runs to that tab. Rocket Can isn't the caliber of horses like Forte or Tapit Trice, but he runs back to his early-season efforts at Gulfstream Park rather than his Arkansas Derby clunker. That's good enough to hit the board at a big price.

Bad Trip: The outside post compromises Rocket Can, who needs to be a bit forwardly-placed, isn't quite fast enough to clear most of the field, and loses lots of ground going around the first turn. That makes it tough for him to stick with a few horses that have beaten him once the real running starts.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#19: Lord Miles

Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)

Owner: Vegso Racing Stables

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: His shocking win in the G2 Wood Memorial (you may have seen your fearless scribe tweet about it…) proves to not be a total fluke. Paco Lopez is able to get Lord Miles involved from the jump, and he's shown a wide trip isn't necessarily a disqualifying factor. He hangs on for a small piece of it at yet another big price.

Bad Trip: Lord Miles regresses off of a career-best race last time out. What we see on Saturday isn't the Lord Miles that outdueled Hit Show, but the one that couldn't keep up with Tapit Trice and Rocket Can earlier this year.

Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.

#20: Continuar

Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Jockey: Ryusei Sakai

Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: Being totally honest, it's tough to imagine one, but I'll give it a try. Continuar runs a career-best race third off the bench and stays out of trouble with his far-outside post. The relatively clean journey at least allows him to salvage a finish in the top half of the field.

Bad Trip: Continuar has chased Derma Sotogake home three different times, and this race is no different. While one Japanese-bred horse is well-meant, it's not this one, who struggles to stay competitive.

#21 (AE): Cyclone Mischief

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Areyoucominghere (by Bernardini)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables and Castleton Lyons

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Joel Rosario

Breeder: Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 30-1

Good Trip: Cyclone Mischief uses his tactical speed to clear most of the field and get comfortable near the front. He moved a bit too soon in the Florida Derby, but Rosario waits just a bit longer. He's not quite good enough to win, but he draws into the race and collects a minor award.

Bad Trip: Rocket Can's “bad trip” scenario lines up pretty well for Cyclone Mischief, too (we're closing in on 3,000 words; work with me, people!). He's got some speed, but it's not enough to clear the field, and the wide trip drains him early.

Cyclone Mischief was bred in Kentucky by Castleton Lyons & Kilboy Estate, out of the unplaced Bernardini mare Areyoucominghere. He sold to Albaugh Family Stables for $450,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Areyoucominghere was purchased by Castleton Lyons, pregnant to Into Mischief, for $350,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#22 (AE): Mandarin Hero

Pedigree: Shanghai Bobby – Namura Nadeshiko (by Fuji Kiseki)

Owner: Hiroaki Arai

Trainer: Terunobu Fujita

Jockey: Kazushi Kimura

Breeder: Hirano Bokujo (JPN)

Morning Line Odds: 20-1

Good Trip: A horse that's never run a bad race produces another big effort. The race shape proves to be friendly to closers, and Mandarin Hero picks off most of the field with his big late kick. Maybe it's not enough to get him into the winner's circle, but it IS enough to remind folks that Japanese breeders know what they're doing.

Bad Trip: The Santa Anita Derby comes back as a poor prep race. What was seen as Mandarin Hero nearly nailing Practical Move on the wire is actually Practical Move running up against his own distance limitations, and this one struggles against the rest of the crop.

#23 (AE): King Russell

Pedigree: Creative Cause – Believe You Will (by Proud Citizen)

Owner: Brereton Jones and Naber Racing

Trainer: Ron Moquett

Jockey: Rafael Bejarano

Breeder: Brereton C. Jones (KY)

Morning Line Odds: 50-1

Good Trip: A closer miraculously drew in off of the AE list last year and had everything go his way. King Russell is an outsider in both post and ability, but he HAS improved with experience and finished a “best of the rest” second behind Angel of Empire at Oaklawn Park. The race collapses, and he comes rolling late for a small piece of the pie.

Bad Trip: King Russell was 58-1 in the Arkansas Derby, and that effort is revealed to be an outlier. A horse still eligible for a first-level allowance is left with far too much to do late.

King Russell was bred in Kentucky by Brereton Jones of Airdrie Stud, out of the unraced Proud Citizen mare Believe You Will, who is herself a homebred full-sister to Jones' 2012 Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can. Second dam El Fasto was also a homebred for Jones.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Playing ‘Good Trip, Bad Trip’ With The 2023 Field appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The Kentucky Derby (and the Kentucky Oaks) is right around the corner, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

Most weeks, the Derby Bubble focuses on, well, the Kentucky Derby. However, this week, we'll look at the fillies and the 2023 Kentucky Oaks.

A field of 14 3-year-old females will line up on the first Friday in May. With just a week until that day, let's dive into the prospective field!

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Wet Paint

Pedigree: Blame – Sky Painter (by Street Cry)

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Godolphin (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 170

We'll start in the most logical place, with the filly that's emerged as the probable Kentucky Oaks favorite. Wet Paint comes into the Oaks on a streak of three straight stakes wins at Oaklawn Park. Most recently, she rallied from last to first to win the G3 Fantasy. She's coming into form at the right time for a barn that wins races as well as any on the circuit, and that's impossible to ignore.

Wet Paint was homebred in Kentucky by Godolphin, out of the Grade 3-placed Street Cry mare Sky Painter, who is herself a Godolphin homebred. The operation of Sheikh Mohammed Al-Maktoum entered into the family through second dam Skylighter, a Grade 2 winner who joined the broodmare band during Godolphin's acquisition of Stonerside Stable and its equine assets.

#2: And Tell Me Nolies

Pedigree: Arrogate – Be Fair (by Exchange Rate)

Owner: Peter Redekop

Trainer: Peter Miller

Breeder: Lara Run LLC (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 70

It's weird putting a horse second when she hasn't won her last three starts. However, And Tell Me Nolies has been chasing the undefeated Faiza, who is ineligible for Kentucky Oaks points and would be no worse than this race's second choice. This filly, meanwhile, won a pair of graded stakes races as a 2-year-old. Toss out her clunker in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, and assume Faiza doesn't exist (which, for the sake of the Kentucky Oaks, she doesn't), and her resume looks much, much better.

And Tell Me Nolies was bred in Kentucky by Lara Run LLC, out of the Grade 3-winning Exchange Rate mare Be Fair. She sold as a short yearling for $70,000 at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, then she brought $230,000 at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training. Lara Run acquired Be Fair, pregnant to Practical Joke, for $50,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

#3: Pretty Mischievous

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Pretty City Dancer (by Tapit)

Owner: Godolphin

Trainer: Brendan Walsh

Breeder: Godolphin (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 103

Pretty Mischievous has never run a bad race. In six career starts, she's notched four wins and hasn't been worse than third. Two of those victories came in stakes races, and she may have moved just a bit too soon in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks. Furthermore, she's 2-for-3 at Churchill Downs, so you know she can handle this surface.

Pretty Mischievous is a Kentucky homebred for Godolphin, out of the Grade 1-winning Tapit mare Pretty City Dancer. Godolphin acquired the dam, pregnant to Medaglia d'Oro for $3.5 million at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#4: Southlawn

Pedigree: Pioneerof the Nile – Mo d'Amour (by Uncle Mo)

Owner: Robert Masterson

Trainer: Norm Casse

Breeder: WinStar Farm (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 100

The question is, which Southlawn do you think shows up on the first Friday in May? If it's the Southlawn that's won two straight at Fair Grounds, including a handy score in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she's got a big shot. However, it's worth noting she's 0-for-2 over the main track at Churchill Downs, and she wasn't better than fifth either time. Perhaps she's matured since her 2-year-old campaign, though, and if she has, she's a threat.

Southlawn was bred in Kentucky by WinStar Farm, out of the Grade 2-placed Uncle Mo mare Mo d'Amour. Masterson bought Southlawn for $290,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. 

#5: Defining Purpose

Pedigree: Cross Traffic – Defining Hope (by Strong Hope)

Owner: Magdalena Racing, Vanmatre, and Ball

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Colette Marie VanMatre (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 107

Defining Purpose pulled off a 20-1 upset in the G1 Ashland, but perhaps that shouldn't have been such a surprise from a pari-mutuel standpoint. She'd misfired in the G3 Honeybee, but previously ran third in the Martha Washington behind Wet Paint after winning a minor stakes race. She may still have some ground to make up on the division leader, but it sure seems like she's moving the right way.

Defining Purpose was bred in Kentucky by Colette Marie VanMatre, out of the multiple stakes-winning Strong Hope mare Defining Hope, who was herself a homebred for VanMatre. 

#6: The Alys Look

Pedigree: Connect – Foul Play (by Harlan's Holiday)

Owner: Ike and Dawn Thrash

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: G. Watts Humphrey Jr. (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 54

If you throw out the October 2022 clunker where she had a nightmare trip, The Alys Look really hasn't done much wrong. She came onto the scene with a win in January's Silverbulletday, and she punched her ticket to the Kentucky Oaks with a third-place finish in the Fair Grounds Oaks.  Cox has won this race twice, and between this one, Wet Paint, and another runner we'll talk about pretty soon, he's got every chance to walk away with a third bed of lilies.

The Alys Look was bred in Kentucky by G. Watts Humphrey Jr., out of the winning Harlan's Holiday mare Foul Play, who is herself a product of Humphrey's breeding program. This bloodline entered the Humphrey program through third dam Cyber Cat, who he acquired from his aunt, breeder Pamela Firman.

#7: Affirmative Lady

Pedigree: Arrogate – Stiffed (by Stephen Got Even)

Owner: AMO Racing USA

Trainer: Graham Motion

Breeder: Alastar Thoroughbred Co, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 110

Affirmative Lady sits second on the Oaks leaderboard after a mild 8-1 upset in the G2 Gulfstream Park Oaks. She was winless as a 2-year-old but danced some big dances, including when she ran second in the G2 Demoiselle at Aqueduct. She may need to improve again in order to contend with the divisional heavyweights, but given her distance-heavy pedigree, it's safe to assume the nine-furlong trip will be right in her wheelhouse.

Affirmative Lady was bred in Kentucky by Alastar Thoroughbred Co., out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning Stephen Got Even mare Stiffed. She was a $210,000 purchase at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeder acquired Stiffed for $320,000, pregnant to Pioneerof the Nile, at the 2018 Keeneland November Sale.

#8: Botanical

Pedigree: Medaglia d'Oro – Daisy (by Blame)

Owner: LNJ Foxwoods and Clearsky Farms

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Clearsky Farms & Godolphin (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 70

When she was shipped to Turfway Park late last year, Botanical blossomed (yep, sometimes a writer just has to take the low-hanging fruit). She won a pair of stakes races in March, and one of those efforts was an easy wire-to-wire score in the Bourbonette Oaks. Of course, the big question is whether or not she can replicate that type of form on conventional dirt.

Botanical was bred in Kentucky by Clearsky Farms and Godolphin, out of the Grade 3-winning Blame mare Daisy. Botanical brought $220,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale.

#9: Wonder Wheel

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Wonder Gal (by Tiz Wonderful)

Owner: D.J. Stable

Trainer: Mark Casse

Breeder: Three Chimneys Farm, LLC & Clearsky Farms (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 48

What do we do with last year's champion 2-year-old filly? Wonder Wheel won two Grade 1 races last year and was second in another. This season, she just hasn't been the same horse. Her loss in the Suncoast was surprising. Her clunker in the Ashland was shocking. If Casse can orchestrate a return to her 2-year-old form, Wonder Wheel could have every chance…but as a handicapper, just how forgiving do you want to be?

Wonder Wheel was bred in Kentucky by Three Chimneys Farm and Clearsky Farms, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Tiz Wonderful mare Wonder Gal. D.J. Stable purchased Wonder Wheel for $275,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale.

#10: Promiseher America

Pedigree: American Pharoah – Promisedyouheaven (by Unbridled's Song)

Owner: Hoffman Thoroughbreds and Tom McCrocklin

Trainer: Ray Handal

Breeder: Robert Low & Lawana Low (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 100

The G3 Gazelle wasn't seen as one of the premier Oaks preps of the season, but Promiseher America shook up the standings with a 26-1 upset. She raced just once as a 2-year-old and was eligible for a first-level allowance at the time of her Gazelle shocker, but rather than be conservative, the Handal barn took a shot, and it paid off. It's likely, however, that she'll need another significant step forward next week.

Promiseher America was bred in Kentucky by Robert and Lawana Low, out of the winning Unbridled's Song mare Promisedyouheaven. The filly brought $75,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring Sale. The Lows bought Promisedyouheaven with Promiseher America in-utero for $370,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#11: Dorth Vader

Pedigree: Girvin – Hardcore Candy (by Yonaguska)

Owner: John Ropes

Trainer: Michael Yates

Breeder: John Ropes (FL)

Kentucky Oaks points: 70

Dorth Vader blew up the tote board by winning the G2 Davona Dale at odds of 46-1 back in March. She followed that up, though, with a distant fourth behind Affirmative Lady in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. A look at her form tells a story: She's won three stakes races going one turn, but is unproven at two-turn routes.

#12: Gambling Girl

Pedigree: Dialed In – Tulipmania (by Empire Maker)

Owner: Repole Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gallagher's Stud (NY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 61

One of the more battle-tested horses on the Oaks trail, Gambling Girl has already raced nine times. She's won just twice, but her record includes four placings in Kentucky Oaks preps, including a second behind Promiseher America in the Gazelle. Pletcher's Hall of Fame career includes four wins in this race, most recently with Malathaat in 2021.

#13: Flying Connection

Pedigree: Nyquist – Free Flying Soul (by Quiet American)

Owner: King, Andrews, Coleman, Cone et al

Trainer: Todd Fincher

Breeder: Liberty Road Stables (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 50

Flying Connection wintered in New Mexico and has developed into a horse with ample early speed. That was a weapon in the Sunland Park Oaks, where she went wire-to-wire and locked up a third career stakes win. The waters are much, much deeper here, but at a minimum, one has to think she's a pace factor.

Flying Connection was bred in Kentucky by Liberty Road Stables, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Quiet American mare Free Flying Soul. The ownership group bought Flying Connection for $250,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Free Flying Soul was purchased by Marsha Naify of Liberty Road Stables for $125,000 at the 2007 Barretts May 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale.

#14: Mimi Kakushi

Pedigree: City of Light – Rite Moment (by Vicar)

Owner: Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed Al Maktoum

Trainer: Salem Bin Ghadayer

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Oaks points: 50

We'll finish off this list with the shipper from Dubai. Mimi Kakushi has won three in a row, including the G3 UAE Oaks. She hasn't run since that February effort, though, and while the winner of the Kentucky Derby prep at Meydan is getting plenty of steam, it wouldn't be a shock if this one was one of the longer shots on the board in the Derby's sister race.

Mimi Kakushi was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds, out of the multiple Grade 2-winning Vicar mare Rite Moment. The filly sold as a yearling for $180,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton July Sale, then she brought $250,000 the following year at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Rite Moment, pregnant to Smart Strike, for $400,000 at the 2010 Keeneland November sale.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: A Look At The Kentucky Oaks Contenders appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The Kentucky Derby is right around the corner, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

All of the Kentucky Derby preps have officially been run. Saturday's Grade 3 Lexington was the final points-bearing race on the schedule, and it ensured one horse of a spot in this field (assuming the connections want it).

We're now simply waiting on the defections that come every year. With that in mind, here's the latest top 20 list, which is led by a very familiar face…

Kentucky-bred contenders will be highlighted in red, and will receive additional analysis into their breeders, broodmares, and auction histories. Pedigree notes are written by Joe Nevills.

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 190

Let me get this straight. Last year's champion 2-year-old male breaks from post #11 at Gulfstream, where horses breaking from post #11 going 1 1/8 miles may as well be starting in Pete Aiello's announcer's booth, in the G1 Florida Derby. He takes dirt the whole way around, gives Mage (a good horse) a two-length head start turning for home, wins anyway to earn his fourth Grade 1 win at a third different track…and according to some in the game, I'm supposed to think his status at the top of this list should be threatened? Nope. To me, Forte is the clear frontrunner in this division heading into the Kentucky Derby, as he has been since last fall.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 150

Tapit Trice passed a significant test in the G1 Blue Grass at Keeneland. Breaking from the rail with a history of gate issues and a running style that indicates he needs to be urged hard to stay engaged, there were red flags. However, beneath a brilliant ride from Luis Saez, the second Pletcher trainee in a row on this list ran down perfect-trip runner-up Verifying and likely stamped himself as the Derby's second choice behind his stablemate.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#3: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 154

Angel of Empire ran very, very well in the G1 Arkansas Derby. He never looked like a loser at any point, as he rated off a pace that, despite not looking too fast, didn't hold up once the field turned for home. He did a lot of things right at Oaklawn, and he goes into the Derby with two straight high-profile graded stakes wins (having also won the G2 Risen Star earlier this season).

#4: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 160

Practical Move earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in taking the G1 Santa Anita Derby. He did what he had to do to keep his spot as the West Coast's top Kentucky Derby threat, but I saw a few things I wasn't crazy about. For the second straight race, he sat a picture-perfect trip, and this time, the wire came just before he could be reeled in. I do not have doubts about his ability, but I can't say the same about my feelings on if he can get the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby trip.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#5: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Derma Sotogake turned heads with his easy score in the G2 UAE Derby. However, when Mandarin Hero, considered a second-tier Japanese horse by some, ran a fantastic second to Practical Move at Santa Anita, it spurred a re-evaluation of the Japanese contingent. If a horse from Japan's “lower-level” circuit can run that well against a legitimate Derby prospect, what does it say about a horse that's more highly-regarded in the land of the rising sun?

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Mage made a significant move up after running big to be second in the Florida Derby. He didn't break well, but he made an eye-catching move into contention going around the far turn before being run down by the top horse on this list. This is twice in as many two-turn starts that he's found some trouble, which isn't the best thing, but on the other hand, he's inexperienced enough to where he may still be learning and developing. Either way, he showed plenty last time out.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#8: Verifying

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)

Owner: Westerberg, Magnier, Poulin, Smith and Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Verifying had a nightmare trip in the G2 Rebel, when he was fourth behind Confidence Game. His journey was much easier in the Blue Grass, when he used his tactical speed to sit in a perfect spot most of the way. He and Tapit Trice were well, well clear of the rest of that field, and in finishing a close-up second, this colt gives the Cox barn yet another Derby contender.

Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

#9: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the G2 Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. Two big questions, though: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Also, how comfortable are you betting on a horse that put forth a big effort in February, yet hasn't raced since?

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#10: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 123

When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli last month, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire, he may have to do just that.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#11: Lord Miles

Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)

Owner: Vegso Racing Stable

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Lord Miles entered the Andrew Champagne Gambling Hall of Fame when he won the G2 Wood Memorial at odds of 59-1. That race came after clunkers in both the G3 Holy Bull and the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, but he capitalized on some class relief and won despite a bit of a wide trip. Despite his well-deserved spot in my heart, though, my brain tells me that class relief will be gone come Kentucky Derby time. Still, he's better than the two clunkers he ran earlier this season, and he showed that on Saturday afternoon.

Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.

#12: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Hit Show didn't have things easy when he broke from post #13 in the Wood, was wide throughout, and then wound up between horses throughout the stretch run. He couldn't hold off Lord Miles, but he did finish second. If you liked him as a Derby prospect before the Wood, you're certainly going to get better odds now that he didn't win his final prep race, and it's not like he ran terribly enough to scare someone off who saw something they liked when he won the G3 Withers earlier this year.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#13: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 46

Disarm was a distant third in Saturday's Lexington, but that was enough to get him into the Derby field. Those six points allow him to sneak in, and that's music to the ears of those who liked his second-place finish behind Kingsbarns in the Louisiana Derby. Supporters probably hoped he would've finished closer to the top two last weekend, and that's why he's down a few spots, but in fairness, it's tough to close ground at Keeneland's 1 1/16-mile configuration (which features a very short stretch).

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#14: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

A photo for third place in the Arkansas Derby saw Reincarnate edge Rocket Can. In doing so, the gray likely earned enough Derby points to ensure a spot in this year's field (a fourth-place finish would've put him in a precarious spot). Prior to that effort, Reincarnate won the G3 Sham at Santa Anita while in the barn of Bob Baffert before running third in the Rebel for Yakteen (where he earned the rest of his points).

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#15: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 64

Raise Cain romped to a 23-1 upset in the G3 Gotham and stepped up the class ladder in the Blue Grass. He was a well-beaten fifth, but one can argue he may have been third-best behind the runaway top pair. He was last of 10 early and got floated very, very wide turning for home. At a minimum, he showed two turns should not be what gets him beat, and if you're looking for a deep closer on Derby Day to potentially do a Rich Strike impression, perhaps this is one you can talk yourself into.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#16: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull before running into Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native, which played a role in this colt shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. It's not like he ran terribly to be fourth behind Angel of Empire, but if you were expecting a significant move forward, that's not what you got. Mott has shipped Rocket Can to Churchill, and this one has more than enough points to make the Derby field, but he added a decision on his status for that race has not been made.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#17: Continuar

Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: Invitation

Continuar earned a spot in the field by way of Japan's Road to the Kentucky Derby, and his resume includes a win in the 2022 Cattleya Stakes. Since then, he's run fifth in Saudi Arabia and third in Dubai. Of the Japanese runners, Derma Sotogake appears more well-meant, but as we found out in the Santa Anita Derby, blindly dismissing runners from Japan may prove unwise.

#18: Blazing Sevens

Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)

Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing

Trainer: Chad Brown

Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 46

Blazing Sevens returns to this list after salvaging third in the Blue Grass. In doing so, he earned just enough Kentucky Derby points to ensure a spot in the field. Last year's winner of the G1 Champagne, however, hasn't shown he can stretch that form out to two turns quite yet. He's 2-for-3 around one turn, with the lone loss being a third-place finish in the G1 Hopeful. Going two turns, he's 0-for-3, and the third-place finish in the Blue Grass is his only in-the-money finish in those events.

Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#19: Sun Thunder

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Greenfield d'Oro (by Medaglia d'Oro)

Owner: R T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine

Trainer: Ken McPeek

Breeder: Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Sun Thunder sneaks back onto this list after a fourth-place finish in the Blue Grass got him enough points to make the Derby field. Unlike many of his contemporaries, he's been a busy boy this year, having run in four prep races. Most notably, he was a close-up second behind Angel of Empire in the Risen Star back in February.

Sun Thunder was bred in Kentucky by Southern Equine Stables, out of the placed Medaglia d'Oro mare Greenfield d'Oro. He sold as a weanling for $400,000 at the 2020 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale. Greenfield d'Oro, a daughter of champion sprinter Maryfield, is a homebred for Southern Equine Stables.

#20: Wild On Ice

Pedigree: Tapizar – Slamitagain (by Grand Slam)

Owner: Frank Sumpter

Trainer: Joel Marr

Breeder: Frank Sumpter (TX)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

We'll finish off the list with a late Triple Crown nominee. Wild On Ice pulled off a 35-1 shocker in the G3 Sunland Derby, and was supplemented to the prestigious series shortly after that effort. After a workout this week at Sunland Park, his connections opted to keep him on track for the Run for the Roses, and it's looking like 60-year-old regular rider Ken Tohill will become the oldest jockey in Kentucky Derby history.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: The Waiting Game Begins appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

The Kentucky Derby prep schedule is in full swing, which means it's time for detailed looks at the horses that could fill the starting gate with Andrew Champagne of Catena Media and The Saratogian's Pink Sheet.

Check back with the Paulick Report regularly for updated rankings that include news, notes, and opinions on the 3-year-olds that figure to take center stage.

The 100-point Kentucky Derby preps have come and gone. With that, the picture for the first Saturday in May is coming more and more into focus.

Only one more prep race is on the calendar. Saturday's Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland offers one last chance for Kentucky Derby points. It's a big chance for one contender that probably needs a top-three finish to ensure a spot in the field, and we'll get to that runner in just a bit.

We'll start this list, however, the same way we have since this column returned earlier this year…

#1: Forte

Pedigree: Violence – Queen Caroline (by Blame)

Owner: Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: South Gate Farm (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 190

Let me get this straight. Last year's champion 2-year-old male breaks from post #11 at Gulfstream, where horses breaking from post #11 going 1 1/8 miles may as well be starting in Pete Aiello's announcer's booth, in the G1 Florida Derby. He takes dirt the whole way around, gives Mage (a good horse) a two-length head start turning for home, wins anyway to earn his fourth Grade 1 win at a third different track…and according to some in the game, I'm supposed to think his status at the top of this list should be threatened? Nope. To me, Forte is the clear frontrunner in this division heading into the Kentucky Derby, as he has been since last fall.

Forte was bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm, out of the multiple stakes-winning Blame mare Queen Caroline. He sold for $110,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Yearling Sale. Amy Moore of South Gate Farm bought Queen Caroline as a yearling for $170,000 at the 2014 Keeneland September sale.

#2: Tapit Trice

Pedigree: Tapit – Danzatrice (by Dunkirk)

Owner: Whisper Hill Farm, Gainesway Stable

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 150

Tapit Trice passed a significant test in Saturday's G1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. Breaking from the rail with a history of gate issues and a running style that indicates he needs to be urged hard to stay engaged, there were red flags. However, beneath a brilliant ride from Luis Saez, the second Pletcher trainee in a row on this list ran down perfect-trip runner-up Verifying and likely stamped himself as the Derby's second choice behind his stablemate.

Tapit Trice was bred in Kentucky by Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd., out of the Grade 3-placed multiple stakes-winning Dunkirk mare Danzatrice. Tapit Trice sold to Mandy Pope's Whisper Hill Farm for $1.3 million at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. A half-sister to champion Jaywalk, Danzatrice was a $105,000 purchase by Gainesway at the 2014 OBS Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#3: Angel of Empire

Pedigree: Classic Empire – Armony's Angel (by To Honor and Serve)

Owner: Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp. (PA)

Kentucky Derby points: 154

Angel of Empire ran very, very well in the G1 Arkansas Derby. He never looked like a loser at any point, as he rated off a pace that, despite not looking too fast, didn't hold up once the field turned for home. He did a lot of things right at Oaklawn, and he goes into the Derby with two straight high-profile graded stakes wins (having also won the G2 Risen Star earlier this season).

#4: Practical Move

Pedigree: Practical Joke – Ack Naughty (by Afleet Alex)

Owner: Amestoy, Amestoy, and Beasley

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 160

Practical Move earned a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure in taking Saturday's G1 Santa Anita Derby. He did what he had to do to keep his spot as the West Coast's top Kentucky Derby threat, but I saw a few things I wasn't crazy about. For the second straight race, he sat a picture-perfect trip, and this time, the wire came just before he could be reeled in. I do not have doubts about his ability, but I can't say the same about my feelings on if he can get the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby trip.

Practical Move was bred in Kentucky by Chad Brown and Head of Plains Partners, out of the stakes-placed Afleet Alex mare Ack Naughty. He sold to his current ownership for $230,000 at the 2022 OBS Spring sale. Ack Naughty was recently sold, pregnant to Upstart, to Chester and Mary Broman for $500,000 at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#5: Derma Sotogake

Pedigree: Mind Your Biscuits – Amour Poesie (by Neo Universe)

Owner: Hiroyuki Asanuma

Trainer: Hidetaka Otonashi

Breeder: Shadai Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Perhaps the biggest winner this past weekend was a horse that didn't even run. Derma Sotogake turned heads with his easy score in the UAE Derby. However, when Mandarin Hero, considered a second-tier Japanese horse by some, ran a fantastic second to Practical Move, it spurred a re-evaluation of the Japanese contingent. If a horse from Japan's “lower-level” circuit can run that well against a legitimate Derby prospect, what does it say about a horse that's more highly-regarded in the land of the rising sun?

#6: Kingsbarns

Pedigree: Uncle Mo – Lady Tapit (by Tapit)

Owner: Spendthrift Farm

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Breeder: Parks Investment Group, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Kingsbarns never looked like a loser in the G2 Louisiana Derby. He was part of a very slow pace and had plenty left turning for home. It wasn't the fastest Louisiana Derby on record, and a number of closers didn't fire (possibly due to the race shape more than anything else), but Kingsbarns passed his first significant test. In addition, his win going 1 3/16 miles indicates that, if he doesn't run well in Kentucky, it won't be because of that race's 1 1/4-mile distance.

Kingsbarns was bred in Kentucky by Parks Investment Group, out of the Grade 3-placed Tapit mare Lady Tapit, who is herself a half-sister to Grade 1 winner Gozzip Girl. After bringing $250,000 at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale, the colt sold to Spendthrift Farm for $800,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Select 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.

#7: Mage

Pedigree: Good Magic – Puca (by Big Brown)

Owner: OGMA Investments, Restrepo, Sterling Racing, and CMNWLTH

Trainer: Gustavo Delgado

Breeder: Grandview Equine (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

Mage made a significant move up after running big to be second in the Florida Derby. He didn't break well, but he made an eye-catching move into contention going around the far turn before being run down by the top horse on this list. This is twice in as many two-turn starts that he's found some trouble, which isn't the best thing, but on the other hand, he's inexperienced enough to where he may still be learning and developing. Either way, he showed plenty last time out.

Mage was bred in Kentucky by Grandview Equine, out of the Grade 1-placed stakes-winning Big Brown mare Puca. He brought $235,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale, then he sold for $290,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale. Puca sold to Grandview Equine, pregnant to Gun Runner, for $475,000 at the 2018 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#8: Verifying

Pedigree: Justify – Diva Delite (by Repent)

Owner: Westerberg, Magnier, Poulin, Smith and Tabor

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 54

Verifying had a nightmare trip in the G2 Rebel, when he was fourth behind Confidence Game. His journey was much easier Saturday in the Blue Grass, when he used his tactical speed to sit in a perfect spot most of the way. He and Tapit Trice were well, well clear of the rest of that field, and in finishing a close-up second, this colt gives the Cox barn yet another Derby contender.

Verifying was bred in Kentucky by Hunter Valley and Mountmellick Farm, out of the Grade 3-winning Repent mare Diva Delite, making him a half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou. He sold to M.V. Magnier of the Coolmore partnership for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. The breeders purchased Diva Delite for $1.2 million, with Verifying in-utero, at the 2019 Keeneland November sale.

#9: Confidence Game

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Eblouissante (by Bernardini)

Owner: Don't Tell My Wife Stables

Trainer: Keith Desormeaux

Breeder: Summer Wind Equine LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 57

Confidence Game rallied from fifth to win the G2 Rebel at a price, and there are reasons to be enthusiastic. He won that race the right way and defeated what seemed like a pretty solid group. Two big questions, though: Was it early-season development that moved him forward, or was it the sloppy track he's bred up and down to absolutely love? Also, how comfortable are you betting on a horse that put forth a big effort in February, yet hasn't raced since?

Confidence Game was bred in Kentucky by Summer Wind Equine, out of the winning Bernardini mare Eblouissante. Desormeaux signed the ticket on Confidence Game for $25,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September Sale. Eblouissante, a half-sister to Hall of Famer Zenyatta, was purchased by Summer Wind Farm for $1,434,279, pregnant to Dansili, at the 2016 Tattersalls December Mares Sale.

#10: Disarm

Pedigree: Gun Runner – Easy Tap (by Tapit)

Owner: Winchell Thoroughbreds

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Breeder: Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 40

And here's the horse for whom Saturday is a big, big day. Disarm got on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard by running a very solid second in the Louisiana Derby. However, 40 points may very well not be enough to ensure his spot in the starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Because of that, he'll take on 10 others in the Lexington. He'll likely be favored in that event, and just a few more points will give his connections much more security.

Disarm was bred in Kentucky by Winchell Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Tapit mare Easy Tap, who is also the dam of Venezuelan champion Tap Daddy. The Winchell operation purchased Easy Tap for $300,000 at the 2011 Fasig-Tipton July Yearling Sale.

#11: Two Phil's

Pedigree: Hard Spun – Mia Torri (by General Quarters)

Owner: Patricia's Hope, Phillip Sagan

Trainer: Larry Rivelli

Breeder: Phillip Sagan (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 123

When Jareth Loveberry rode for Rivelli last month, he KNEW he was live (yes, we're still referencing the greatest commercial in horse racing history). Two Phil's dominated in the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park and earned some pretty big speed figures (especially compared to the rest of his crop). If they were running the Kentucky Derby over that synthetic track, I'd have him much, much higher on this list. The question is, can he replicate that race on dirt? To run with the likes of Forte, Tapit Trice, and Angel of Empire, he may have to do just that.

Two Phil's was bred in Kentucky by Phillip Sagan, out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning General Quarters mare Mia Torri, who Sagan acquired privately during her on-track career.

#12: Lord Miles

Pedigree: Curlin – Lady Esme (by Majestic Warrior)

Owner: Vegso Racing Stable

Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Breeder: Vegso Racing Stable (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 100

Lord Miles entered the Andrew Champagne Gambling Hall of Fame Saturday, when he won the G2 Wood Memorial at odds of 59-1. That race came after clunkers in both the G3 Holy Bull and the G2 Tampa Bay Derby, but he capitalized on some class relief and won despite a bit of a wide trip. Despite his well-deserved spot in my heart, though, my brain tells me that class relief will be gone come Kentucky Derby time. Still, he's better than the two clunkers he ran earlier this season, and he showed that on Saturday afternoon.

Lord Miles is a Kentucky homebred for Vesgo Racing Stable, out of the unraced Majestic Warrior mare Lady Esme, who is herself a Vesgo homebred. His second dam, Come a Callin was also bred and raced by Vesgo. The breeder bought into the family with the third dam, the unraced Twilight Service, who he purchased for $105,000 at the 2004 OBS March Sale.

#13: Hit Show

Pedigree: Candy Ride – Actress (by Tapit)

Owner: Gary and Mary West

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Gary & Mary West Stables Inc. (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Hit Show didn't have things easy on Saturday. He broke from post #13 in the Wood, was wide throughout, and then wound up between horses throughout the stretch run. He couldn't hold off Lord Miles, but he did finish second. If you liked him as a Derby prospect before the Wood, you're certainly going to get better odds now that he didn't win his final prep race, and it's not like he ran terribly enough to scare someone off who saw something they liked when he won the G3 Withers earlier this year.

Hit Show was bred in Kentucky by Gary & Mary West Stables Inc., out of the Tapit mare Actress, who was herself a Grade 2 winner as a homebred for the Wests. 

#14: Reincarnate

Pedigree: Good Magic – Allanah (by Scat Daddy)

Owner: SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert Masterson, et al

Trainer: Tim Yakteen

Breeder: Woods Edge Farm, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

A photo for third place in the Arkansas Derby saw Reincarnate edge Rocket Can. In doing so, the gray likely earned enough Derby points to ensure a spot in this year's field (a fourth-place finish would've put him in a precarious spot). Prior to that effort, Reincarnate won the G3 Sham at Santa Anita while in the barn of Bob Baffert before running third in the Rebel for Yakteen (where he earned the rest of his points).

Reincarnate was bred in Kentucky by Woods Edge Farm, out of the stakes-winning Scat Daddy mare Allanah. He sold for $775,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Woods Edge Farm acquired Allanah, pregnant to Street Boss, for $105,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#15: Raise Cain

Pedigree: Violence – Lemon Belle (by Lemon Drop Kid)

Owner: Andrew and Rania Warren

Trainer: Ben Colebrook

Breeder: Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 64

Raise Cain romped to a 23-1 upset in the G3 Gotham and stepped up the class ladder in the Blue Grass. He was a well-beaten fifth, but one can argue he may have been third-best behind the runaway top pair. He was last of 10 early and got floated very, very wide turning for home. At a minimum, he showed two turns should not be what gets him beat, and if you're looking for a deep closer on Derby Day to potentially do a Rich Strike impression, perhaps this is one you can talk yourself into.

Raise Cain was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds, out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Lemon Belle. He sold for $180,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds acquired Lemon Belle, pregnant to Violence, for $285,000 at the 2018 Keeneland November sale.

#16: Rocket Can

Pedigree: Into Mischief – Tension (by Tapit)

Owner: Frank Fletcher Racing

Trainer: Bill Mott

Breeder: Woodford Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 60

Rocket Can won the G3 Holy Bull before running into Forte in the G2 Fountain of Youth. Owner Frank Fletcher is an Arkansas native, which played a role in this colt shipping to Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby. It's not like he ran terribly to be fourth behind Angel of Empire, but if you were expecting a significant move forward Saturday, that's not what you got. Mott has shipped Rocket Can to Churchill, and this one has more than enough points to make the Derby field, but he added a decision on his status for that race has not been made.

Rocket Can was bred in Kentucky by Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC, out of the placed Tapit mare Tension. Woodford Thoroughbreds bought Tension pregnant to Curlin for $750,000 at the 2017 Keeneland November sale, and sold her at this year's Keeneland January sale.

#17: Continuar

Pedigree: Drefong – Pan de Ring (by King Kamehameha)

Owner: Lion Race Horse Co.

Trainer: Yoshito Yahagi

Breeder: Lake Villa Farm (JPN)

Kentucky Derby points: Invitation

Continuar earned a spot in the field by way of Japan's Road to the Kentucky Derby, and his resume includes a win in the 2022 Cattleya Stakes. Since then, he's run fifth in Saudi Arabia and third in Dubai. Of the Japanese runners, Derma Sotogake appears more well-meant, but as we found out in the Santa Anita Derby, blindly dismissing runners from Japan may prove unwise.

#18: Blazing Sevens

Pedigree: Good Magic – Trophy Girl (by Warrior's Reward)

Owner: Rodeo Creek Racing

Trainer: Chad Brown

Breeder: Tracy Farmer (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 46

Blazing Sevens returns to this list after salvaging third in the Blue Grass. In doing so, he earned just enough Kentucky Derby points to ensure a spot in the field. Last year's winner of the G1 Champagne, however, hasn't shown he can stretch that form out to two turns quite yet. He's 2-for-3 around one turn, with the lone loss being a third-place finish in the G1 Hopeful. Going two turns, he's 0-for-3, and the third-place finish in the Blue Grass is his only in-the-money finish in those events.

Blazing Sevens was bred in Kentucky by Tracy Farmer, out of the winning Warrior's Reward mare Trophy Girl. After bringing $140,000 as a newly-turned yearling at the 2021 Keeneland January Horses of All Ages Sale, Blazing Sevens sold for $250,000 that summer at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale. Farmer acquired Trophy Girl as a weanling for $62,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton November Sale.

#19: Jace's Road

Pedigree: Quality Road – Out Post (by Silver Deputy)

Owner: West Point Thoroughbreds, Albaugh Family Stables

Trainer: Brad Cox

Breeder: Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY)

Kentucky Derby points: 45

Jace's Road ran third in the Louisiana Derby. He pressed the very slow pace set by Kingsbarns, and while he couldn't stick with the top two, he had enough in reserve to finish a clear third. Most years, that would be enough to clinch a spot in the Kentucky Derby field. However, if Disarm hits the board in the Lexington, Jace's Road would fall out of that group (due to lower non-restricted stakes earnings than Reincarnate, who also has 45 points).

Jace's Road was bred in Kentucky by Richard Santulli's Colts Neck Stables, out of the stakes-placed Silver Deputy mare Out Post. The colt sold to his current ownership for $510,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale. After being purchased as a yearling for $250,000, Out Post raced for Jayeff B Stables, of which Santulli is a partner, then she raced for Santulli alone before entering his broodmare band.

#20: Wild On Ice

Pedigree: Tapizar – Slamitagain (by Grand Slam)

Owner: Frank Sumpter

Trainer: Joel Marr

Breeder: Frank Sumpter (TX)

Kentucky Derby points: 50

We'll finish off the list with a late Triple Crown nominee. Wild On Ice pulled off a 35-1 shocker in the G3 Sunland Derby, and was supplemented to the prestigious series shortly after that effort. After a workout this week at Sunland Park, his connections opted to keep him on track for the Run for the Roses, and it's possible 60-year-old regular rider Ken Tohill becomes the oldest jockey in Kentucky Derby history.

The post The Derby Bubble Presented By Kentucky-Breds: Sorting Out Contenders As The Dust Settles appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post