d. wayne lukas | Horse Racing Free Tips

Nest Favored at 5-2 in Kentucky Oaks for the Ages

LOUISVILLE, KY – Just how deep is the 14-horse field assembled for Friday's GI Kentucky Oaks?

Unbeaten champion 2-year-old filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Echo Zulu (Gun Runner), a game front-running winner by a nose while making her sophomore debut in the GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks, was installed as the third choice on Mike Battaglia's Kentucky Oaks morning-line at 4-1. Last term's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine, a $300,000 Keeneland September Yearling graduate, was assigned post seven at Monday afternoon's draw held at Churchill Downs.

“She trains like a horse that expects to win and that's a wonderful thing,” Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen said of the L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds colorbearer. “She got tired in her first race off the bench, but the fast fillies are inside of her and we are pleased to draw on the outside of them.”

Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House's Nest (Curlin), a head-turning heroine of the GI Central Bank Ashland S. at Keeneland, was given the nod as the 5-2 morning-line favorite for the Oaks. The $350,000 Keeneland September Yearling purchase will break from post four. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, also represented by longshots Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft) (post five) and Shahama (Munnings) (post 13), looks to capture his second straight Oaks after saddling Malathaat (Curlin) to a popular score last year.

“I'm happy with the draws for Nest and Goddess of Fire,” four-time Oaks winner Pletcher said. “We were hoping to be somewhere in the middle. With Shahama, it's OK. She isn't real sharp away from the gate, so she may have a better chance out there than if she was stuck down inside.”

The ultra-impressive unbeaten GII Gulfstream Park Oaks winner Kathleen O. (Upstart), assigned post 10, is the second choice at 7-2. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey won the Oaks in 1993 with Dispute.

Secret Oath (Arrogate), a runaway winner of the GIII Honeybee S. and third as the favorite while facing males in the GI Arkansas Derby, drew the rail for the legendary D. Wayne Lukas, who is seeking his fifth Oaks victory. She is 6-1 on the morning-line.

From the rail out, the complete Kentucky Oaks field with morning-line odds:

1-Secret Oath (Arrogate) (6-1)

2-Nostalgic (Medaglia d'Oro) (15-1)

3-Hidden Connection (Connect) (20-1)

4-Nest (Curlin) (*5-2)

5-Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft) (15-1)

6-Yuugiri (Shackleford) (30-1)

7-Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) (4-1)

8-Venti Valentine (Firing Line) (20-1)

9-Desert Dawn (Cupid) (20-1)

10-Kathleen O. (Upstart) (7-2)

11-Cocktail Moments (Uncle Mo) (30-1)

12-Candy Raid (Candy Ride {Arg}) (30-1)

13-Shahama (Munnings) (15-1)

14-Turnerloose (Nyquist) (20-1)

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Secret Oath Could Try Preakness After Oaks

Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas indicated Secret Oath (Arrogate) may take another shot against the boys in the GI Preakness S. at Pimlico May 21 following tilt at the May 6 GI Kentucky Oaks. Secret Oath finished third in the GI Arkansas Derby in her first start against males.

“We had no intention of running in the [GI Kentucky] Derby; running a mile and a quarter, in a 20-horse field,” Lukas said. “Whether you could make a case or not that she's one of the better 3-year-olds in the country–which you can–we had no intention of that.”

He continued, “We were running in the Arkansas Derby because the race was [worth] $1.25 million. That in itself was the incentive. If she had won the Arkansas Derby, we wouldn't have run in the Kentucky Derby. We were pretty adamant that we were going to run in the [Kentucky] Oaks and have the best filly in the country.”

The second jewel in the American Triple Crown is contested over 9 1/2 furlongs.

“That's what the nomination was for,” Lukas said. “That's what we thought: If we have a big Oaks, now we cut back in distance. We go to a 14-horse field versus 20. We go on a different surface, tight turns, where speed would be good. It changes the whole game when you go to the Preakness.”

Lukas has won the Preakness on six occasions, most recently with Calumet Farm's Oxbow in 2013. The Preakness also gave Lukas his first Triple Crown victory, that coming with Codex in 1980.

“I have good luck at the Preakness,” said Lukas, who also has won the Derby and GI Belmont S. four times apiece. “I always have had.”

Secret Oath, by champion Arrogate, won the Martha Washington S. and GIII Honeybee S. this winter at Oaklawn earlier this season. She ranks with 80 points for the May 6 Oaks.

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The TDN Kentucky Oaks Rankings for Apr. 14

With the GI Ashland S., the GII Santa Anita Oaks and the GIII Gazelle S. topping last week's action, all the preps have been run and the field for the GI Kentucky Oaks is all but set. Who will be the favorite? Who is the filly to beat? In a year where the division is overrun with quality, those aren't easy questions to answer. It should be a heck of a race.

1) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-4-0-2, $590,167. Last Start: 3rd GI Arkansas Derby. Kentucky Oaks Points: 60. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 6.

The big news in the Secret Oath camp is that the connections have decided to replace jockey Luis Contreras with Luis Saez. Trainer Wayne Lukas had told the TDN that Contreras would keep the mount for the Oaks, so, apparently, someone had a change of mind. The move is hardly a surprise. Contreras, a regular at Woodbine, is a capable rider but he's not in the class of Saez, who is a rare talent. The guess is that Secret Oath will be the favorite. She's coming off a very good effort against males in the GI Arkansas Derby and, because of Lukas, the 86-year-old icon trying to win another Kentucky Oaks, she will dominate the storylines coming into the race. Her sire Arrogate passed away at age seven in 2020. Win or lose in the Oaks, she figures to go down as the best horse produced by her ill-fated sire.

2) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $379,730. Last Start: 1st GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 150. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Maybe she will be the favorite. Considering what she has accomplished, that wouldn't be a surprise. She's four-for-four in her career and gives every indication that she has yet to reach her peak. She represents a perfect example of why trainer Shug McGaughey is in the Hall of Fame. He's a master when it comes to developing horses and getting them to peak on the big day. Starting with her debut, a maiden win at Aqueduct Nov. 12, she has gotten better with every start. This year, she has reeled off three straight wins at Gulfstream, a surface that doesn't fit her come-from-behind style. It's been 29 years since McGaughey last won the Oaks, which he pulled off in 1993 with Dispute. It is his only win in the race.

3) NEST (Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Michael House; B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $623,050. Last Start: 1st GI Central Bank Ashland S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 120. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Todd Pletcher won the 2021 Kentucky Oaks with a daughter of Curlin, Malathaat. He will try to do so again with another daughter of Curlin in Nest. Nest could possibly be better than Eclipse Award winner Malathaat. That's how impressive she was when winning the Ashland. After winning the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs in her 3-year-old debut, she faced much stiffer competition in the Ashland, but made it look easy. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., she drew off in the stretch to win by 8 1/4 lengths. “She looked like a star yesterday,” Pletcher said the morning after the Ashland. “You never expect to win by 8 1/4 lengths, but we felt good about the way she was coming into the race.” Mike Repole is one of her owners. He has spent millions at the sales trying to find superstar colts, but doesn't normally go after many fillies. This one was bought at Keeneland September for $350,000, which looks like a bargain. In most any other year, she'd be the solid favorite in the Oaks. This year, she could be third or fourth choice.

4) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. KY Oaks Points: 130. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Could Gun Runner, who got off to a sizzling start as a sire, win both the Oaks and the GI Kentucky Derby? With Echo Zulu and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba (Gun Runner), it's entirely possible. She's undefeated and the reigning 2-year-old filly champion, so maybe she deserves to be ranked higher than fourth. But this corner was not enamored with her 3-year-old debut, a nose victory in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks in which she earned the slowest Beyer in her career. She's going to have to run better to win the Kentucky Oaks. Then again, maybe the cagey Steve Asmussen didn't have her at 100%, knowing that the Kentucky Oaks was the real goal? It's a tough call.

5) NOSTALGIC (Medaglia d'Oro–Been Here Before, by Tapit) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $235,400. Last Start: 1st GIII Gazelle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 101. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

She's was on the list, off the list and now makes it into the Top 5 with her win Saturday at Aqueduct in the Gazelle. She's had an up-and-down career so far. After finishing fourth in last year's GII Demoiselle S., one of the biggest key races of 2021, she went to the grass, where she was ninth and last in the GIII Sweetest Chant S. at Gulfstream. Trainer Bill Mott sent her back to dirt and she bounced right back with a 6 3/4-length win in a Gulfstream allowance race. She earned her ticket to the Oaks with a 1 1/4-length win in the Gazelle over 11-10 favorite Venti Valentine (Firing Line). Owned by Godolphin, by Medaglia d'Oro out of the Been Here Before, she's certainly got the pedigree to be a star. Mott has never won the Kentucky Oaks.

6) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-0, $256,600. Last Start: 2nd GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 40. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Among the top names headed for the Oaks, Adare Manor became the first to stub her toe when she finished second as the 7-10 favorite in the Santa Anita Oaks for new trainer Tim Yakteen. It was her first race since winning the GIII Las Virgenes S. and perhaps Yakteen, who took over for Bob Baffert, was trying to save something for Kentucky. Nonetheless, this was a race she was not supposed to lose, even if the margin of victory was just a neck. She was dominant when winning the Las Virgenes by 13 lengths, earning a 94 Beyer figure. If she can run back to that race she'd have a chance in the Oaks. But will she? Maybe she peaked too early.

7) HIDDEN CONNECTION (Connect–C J's Gal, by Awesome Again) O-Hidden Brook Farm & Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-St. Simon Place (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $49,000 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV; $40,000 ylg '20 KEESEP; $55,000 RNA 2yo '21 OBSAPR; $85,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $399,525. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 57. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

She's had one start at Churchill Downs and the result was a 9 1/4-length win in the GIII Pocahontas S. It was the best race of her life. So you know that she will handle the track. And she's going to have to run back to that race to have any chance. She's gone 0-for-3 since and is 0-2 on the year. However, she made a forward move last out when battling Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks to lose by just a nose. Her jockey, Reylu Gutierrez, looks like a rising star after winning 51 races at the Fair Grounds meet.

8) VENTI VALENTINE (Firing Line–Glory Gold, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-NY Final Furlong Racing Stable & Parkland Thoroughbreds; B-Final Furlong Racing Stable & Maspeth Stable (NY); T-Jorge Abreu. Lifetime Record: MSW & MGSP, 5-3-2-0, $416,250. Last Start: 2nd GIII Gazelle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 94. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

At odds of 11-10, she was the beaten favorite in the Gazelle. It was far from a bad race. She was second, losing by just 1 1/4 lengths, and got beat by a potential star in Nostalgic. But, at the same time, she had no excuse and the race showed that she belongs in the second tier when it comes to Kentucky Oaks runners. A good horse, but she'll be 40-1 or thereabouts at Churchill. Could clean up against New York-breds, but she deserves a shot in the Kentucky Oaks.

9) YUUGIRI (Shackleford–Yuzuru, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Sekie Yoshihara & Tsunebumi Yoshihara (KY); T-Rodolphe Brisset. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-1, $543,610. Last Start: 1st GIII Fantasy S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 114. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Yuugiri is owned and was bred by Sekie Yoshihara and Tsunebumi Yoshihara, who live in Japan. She is trained by Rodolphe Brisset. She punched her ticket to the Kentucky Oaks with a win in the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn, but that race, once Secret Oath opted for the Arkansas Derby, did not come up particularly strong. A better test may have been the GIII Honeybee S., where Secret Oaks trounced her by 9 1/4 lengths. The Oaks will be her fourth start at Churchill Downs. She broke her maiden there in September and then ran second in the Rags to Riches S. and second in the GII Golden Rod S. Another good horse who will be a big long shot in what is a loaded race.

10) Desert Dawn (Cupid–Ashley's Glory, by Honour and Glory) O/B-H and E Ranch, Inc. (AZ); T-Philip D'Amato. Sales history: $32,000 RNA yrl '20 OBSOCT. Lifetime Record: 7-2-0-2, $378,400. Last Start: 1st GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 108. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Can an Arizona-bred win the Kentucky Oaks? She'll give it a shot. Was bred by and is owned by Elena and Hollis Crim of H & E Ranch, a 400-acre spread in Globe, Arizona. Normally, the winner of the Santa Anita Oaks would be among the top choices in the Kentucky Oaks, but that won't be the case with this one. She was the longest shot in the field of five at 14-1 and had been off the board in her three prior starts. That includes a sixth-place finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she was beaten by 18 3/4 lengths. Ran a career best race at Santa Anita, but that probably won't be enough.

The post The TDN Kentucky Oaks Rankings for Apr. 14 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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This Side Up: A Wrong Turn Onto the Right Road

They call it “pilot error.” It's just that you have all the correction of perspective, right there, that anyone could possibly require. If a jockey makes a mistake, the consequences obviously tend to be a good deal less drastic than for a guy flying a plane.

Besides, I have never liked the kind of blame culture that unites handicappers and horsemen in casting jockeys as the villains of their woulda-coulda-shoulda world. To be fair, perhaps that's rather more common in my native environment, racing on turf in Europe, where the tendency to restrain a horse for a late run can vividly magnify rider miscalculation. Carrying speed on dirt, however, calls for no less subtle judgement of pace and position–as was conspicuously apparent at Oaklawn last weekend.

But while these guys are only human, and no lives were lost, there's no denying how maddening it can be for those closest to a horse, to see so much patient toil unraveled in a matter of seconds by a jockey who can flit from mount to mount as insouciantly as a butterfly. These big races can represent the apex of a pyramid of development extending not months, but years, and sometimes the whole thing can crumble through the fleeting intervention of a guy who's supposed to be on your side.

(Click below to listen to this column as a podcast.)

As such, let's hope that connections of Secret Oath (Arrogate) will be rewarded for persevering with Luis Contreras in the GI Kentucky Oaks. He owes them big time, after his panicked lunge for the red button when shuffled back by the colts in the GI Arkansas Derby. The whole industry had a stake in that adventure and not many of us would match the fidelity and compassion of D. Wayne Lukas and his patrons in apparently concluding that Contreras, hardly a regular at this level, will have all due motivation to make amends in the Oaks.

Secret Oath's response to the intemperate demands of her rider was such that she may yet remain the most theatrically talented of the whole sophomore crop. For now, admittedly, that feels a fairly limited distinction so far as the males are concerned. Many observers, indeed, suspect that Secret Oath may have a tougher task on the first Friday in May than might have been the case on the Saturday. But that only makes it doubly vexing that she should have completed her preparations with a really taxing race. Luckily we know that her promising young trainer likes to keep a horse at the plow, and it's not inconceivable that Secret Oath could renew contention with the colts in the GI Preakness S.

I have to admit I wasn't crazy about the fractions set by Contreras in the GIII Oaklawn Mile, either, but by the same token a top-class rider in Flavien Prat arguably shouldn't have exposed Cezanne (Curlin) to a pace that softened him up for Fulsome (Into Mischief) to pounce from last place. Cezanne has required so much patience of the people who gave $3.65 million for him at the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale, now three years ago, and this was another performance in defeat that actually made you think better of the horse. To my mind there's no question that Cezanne is capable of winning a Grade I race and it would be interesting to know whether his rider deflected any blame by suggesting that they had overstretched a sprinter. Personally, I'd still like to see this guy in the GI Met Mile.

Both these horses, for different reasons, exemplify how the hectic whirlwind of a single race can compress a far wider agenda: an awful lot of time and money, in the case of Cezanne; and a glimpse of happier headlines, for a troubled sport, with Secret Oath.

And it's going to be no different Saturday, when the final round of big Derby trials bring together an awful lot of horses with zero margin for error. As things stand, in fact, of the declared runners only Morello (Classic Empire) and Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) have already secured a gate at Churchill. No coincidence, perhaps, that both are such natural dashers. None of the others, mostly slower burns, can afford the kind of misadventure that last week cost Secret Oath her Derby spot, albeit Messier (Empire Maker) resembles the filly in having unusual reasons for being confined to this single shot at the necessary starting points. But a lot of trainers, as we noted last week, have wittingly painted themselves into this corner by trying to reconcile their preference for a light schedule with the imperative of booking a gate.

Smile Happy (Runhappy) and Zandon (Upstart) probably can't afford another learning experience of the kind they shared in the GII Risen Star S., where both surfaced for the only time in four months and a third time overall. Both line up for the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. needing a statement performance to vindicate their precarious preparation. Smile Happy is in tolerable shape, with 30 points already banked, but Zandon sits on 14 while Emmanuel (More Than Ready), another who needs to have learned fast from a messy third start, has just five.

I'll certainly be rooting for Zandon, bred and raised by a model farm and representing a young stallion punching way above fee. Upstart already has one of the Oaks favorites in Kathleen O. and she could yet be joined by Micro Share (a $450,000 2-year-old) if getting her starting points out of the GII Santa Anita Oaks. Meanwhile Reinvestment Risk, from his sire's debut crop, looks right back in business for the GI Carter H.

This quite amazing breakout by a $10,000 stallion is just one among countless themes latent in one of the most captivating days in the whole calendar, set up perfectly by the joyous rite of spring that is opening day at Keeneland.

But wouldn't it be just typical of this business if all those Blue Grass highwire acts were suddenly toppled by Contreras, riding Ethereal Road (Quality Road) for Lukas? This colt at least compiled plenty of experience in taking four starts to break his maiden and, guess what, maybe didn't benefit from optimal tactics in the GII Rebel S., engaging on the wide outside and only tiring late after the effort of taking charge took its toll. Lukas reckons a bulb has come on since, and don't forget that it was the next horse home in the Rebel who picked up the pieces as Secret Oath surrendered second last week.

No getting away from it, that whole day fell rather flat. But if the sport was diverted from a road to redemption, with Secret Oath, perhaps her rider could already be taking us along on one of his own.

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