Taking Stock: West-Bred Life Is Good and Concert Tour Top Baffert Barn

Gary and Mary West bred last weekend's hugely impressive Gll San Felipe S. winner Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and Saturday's leading Gll Rebel S. contender Concert Tour (Street Sense), both 'TDN Rising Stars', both trained by Bob Baffert and probably the two leading Classics aspirants in his barn, with five wins, three graded triumphs and no losses between them. That's quite a feat for the Wests and their racing manager Ben Glass–clients of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants–because the Baffert barn is loaded with expensive and well-bred auction purchases for a number of big-time outfits, including the “Avengers” group that raced Gl Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Authentic (Into Mischief) last year, and their former partners in Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy), WinStar and CHC, which races Life Is Good.

The Wests don't race in partnerships, going it exclusively alone–a rarity these days. They mostly buy yearling colts at Keeneland with a focus on Classic types with the aim of developing stallions, and their nascent breeding operation is mostly based around supporting their young horses at stud, including champions Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}), West Coast (Flatter) and Maximum Security (New Year's Day), plus American Freedom (Pulpit). That they've raced three Eclipse Award-winning colts in the last four years tells you all you need to know about their program, but Life is Good and Concert Tour, plus the promising 3-year-old homebred filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Slumber Party (Malibu Moon), are now showcasing the power of their broodmare band, too. Eventually, the plan for the Wests is to sell yearlings commercially, and selling a top colt like Life Is Good, which WinStar and CHC purchased for $525,000 at Keeneland, is good business to that end.

But did the Wests sell or keep a potential Derby winner? Much can happen between now and then, but if Concert Tour and Life Is Good were to meet in the Derby, it would test that question and add some drama to the race for the Wests–not that they need any more drama in Louisville after getting disqualified from first in the Derby with Maximum Security in 2019.

At the moment, Life Is Good, who is out of the Distorted Humor mare Beach Walk, is widely considered the most exciting and talented colt of his class, and that he won the San Felipe by open lengths with a massive 107 Beyer Speed Figure in early March makes him look like a man among boys.

“Based on what I saw today, Life Is Good is by far the best 3-year-old right now,” Gary West told me after the race. “But he will not make an uncontested lead in the Derby. Pace makes the race.”

He's right, of course, because there are questions about the colt's ability to see out 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, certainly based on the speed he shows early in races. One of the reasons Life Is Good was sold and Concert Tour, who's from the Tapit mare Purse Strings, was retained is that the former is by Into Mischief, a horse who a few years ago was mostly known as the sire of outstanding sprinter/milers, while the latter is by a Kentucky Derby winner.

Perceptions about Into Mischief have changed since Ben Glass sent us an email in late 2016 that said, “Mr. West has put Into Mischief on his list this year [for stallions to use].” The stallion's fee had been rising steadily since it hit a low of $7,500 in 2012, and it was bumped to $75,000 for 2017 from $45,000 the year before. Nevertheless, Into Mischief was represented by only two Grade l winners at that time, Goldencents and Practical Joke. The former had established himself as a premier miler and the latter, from a Distorted Humor mare like Life Is Good, was a 2-year-old of 2016 that had accounted for two Grade l races at 7 furlongs and a mile, the Hopeful and the Champagne, respectively. By the time Life Is Good was foaled in 2018, Practical Joke had reverted to sprinting after a fifth-place finish in the Derby and won the Gl H. Allen Jerkens over seven furlongs, but Audible had won the Gl Florida Derby in early 2018 and would go on to finish third in the Derby, hinting at what Into Mischief could accomplish under the right conditions.

In the August 23, 2019, column “Into Mischief's Changing Profile,” I foreshadowed the arrival of horses like Authentic when I wrote: “With the better mares he's being bred to, it's easy to project that his Grade l output at 1 1/8 miles and up will increase in the coming years. When that happens, his progeny earnings should rise that much more, which means that his rivals on the General Sire list are in for a greater tussle in the ensuing years. The latest chapter of this impressive stallion's book is just being written. Stay tuned.”

To date, Into Mischief is the sire of eight Grade l winners, and he led the General Sire list for the second consecutive year in 2020 with $22,507,940 in progeny earnings, almost $10 million more than runner-up Medaglia d'Oro. The year before, he'd led the list with earnings of $19,179,389, a little more than $3.5 million ahead of Curlin.

The Wests, however, decided to sell Life Is Good in 2019 because he was bred on the same cross as sprinter/miler Practical Joke, but they were only prepared to let him go at their price. They got it–$525,000–from WinStar and CHC, who'd raced Into Mischief's son Audible, and it was a no-brainer for the partners to send him to Baffert after their success with Justify and Baffert's handling of Authentic and the outstanding speed filly Gamine (Into Mischief) last year.

The Figure-8 and Baffert

In Gamine, the $1.8 million Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old sales topper in 2019; and Authentic, a $350,000 Keeneland September yearling, Baffert had a bird's-eye view of the best of Into Mischief–and the stallion's limitations and potential as well. Both Gamine and Authentic were fast, but the filly, a champion sprinter, had distance limitations at nine furlongs like many past top Into Mischiefs while the colt proved he could carry his speed 10 furlongs against the best, surprising many in the process.

Both Gamine and Authentic are lighter and more elegant physicals, whereas Life Is Good is a more robust and masculine model. Like the other two, speed is his game, but how far he can carry it remains the question. In his second start, you'll recall, Life Is Good was cruising easily on the lead and building a sizeable margin in the stretch of the Glll Sham S. before Baffert's Medina Spirit (Protonico), a $35,000 OBS July 2-year-old, took a substantial bite out of that lead at the finish.

As Baffert was preparing Life Is Good for the San Felipe, I noticed he'd called an audible for the colt's last work before the San Felipe and fitted him with a Figure-8 noseband, which is used for control and for encouraging proper breathing through the nostrils by keeping the colt's mouth shut. I texted Baffert last Friday, before the San Felipe, inquiring in text-speak: “Noticed you put fig8 on Life Is Good for 2/28 work and have galloped him in it since. Rare for you. Should help his air, right?”

Baffert replied: “Put it on more for control. Slow him down. His air is great.”

The move proved both inspired and effective, because Life Is Good had eight lengths on Medina Spirit at the end of 1 1/16 miles whereas he'd held the same colt to a 3/4-length margin in the Sham at a mile. As Gary West pointed out, however, Life Is Good had it easy on the lead in the San Felipe with Medina Spirit hard held early to give his stablemate breathing room and the others not wanting to tangle early, but that triple-digit Beyer and the manner in which he won, even with the drifting to the middle of the track, was undeniably impressive and a move in the right direction if 10 furlongs is the goal.

Triple-Digit Beyers

The Twitter persona known as @o_crunk–if you're not following him, you should, because he's the master of stats– tweeted after the race that since Jan. 1, 2010, there have been 132 3-year-olds that have earned Beyers of 100 or more from January through April, with Baffert training 32 of them and Todd Pletcher 27 in second place. In a follow-up tweet, @o_crunk put this in context, noting that Baffert and Pletcher also get the most expensive auction purchases to work with, and he included an old blog post titled “The Toddster in context” that backs up this hypothesis with auction numbers.

Note, too, that over the same time span Baffert has trained six of the past 11 champion 3-year-old colts, the cheapest of which was Authentic at $350,000 if you don't count homebred American Pharoah's $300,000 “sale” as a yearling. Justify was a $500,000 yearling, West Coast was a $425,000 yearling, Arrogate cost $560,000 as a yearling, and Lookin At Lucky was a $475,000 2-year-old.

There's a reason why folks pay good money for yearlings and 2-year-olds at auction, and why they send them to Baffert, too.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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America’s Day At The Races Features Racing From Aqueduct, Oaklawn

America's Day at the Races, the acclaimed national telecast produced by the New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) in partnership with FOX Sports, will air coverage both Saturday and Sunday showcasing live racing action from Aqueduct Racetrack and Oaklawn Park.

Presented by America's Best Racing and Claiborne Farm, America's Day at the Races will broadcast Saturday from 2-3 p.m. Eastern on FS1 and from 3-6 p.m. on FS2. Sunday will feature coverage on FS2 from 1:30-6:30 p.m.

Saturday's stakes-laden card from Oaklawn is headlined by the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel (Race 11, 6:16 p.m. Eastern), a 1 1/16-mile test for sophomores offering 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top-four finishers. The Rebel will be shown on America's Day at the Races via NYRA's YouTube channel, the FOX Sports app and via NYRA Bets from 6-6:30 p.m.

A talented Rebel field is led by Shortleaf Stable homebred Caddo River, who will exit the inside post under Florent Geroux for trainer Brad Cox. The Hard Spun colt enters from a dominant 10 ¼-length gate-to-wire score in one-mile Smarty Jones on January 22 at the Hot Springs, Arkansas oval.

Steep opposition will be provided by a pair of starters for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert in undefeated Concert Tour and $625,000 purchase Hozier. Baffert leads all trainers with seven wins in the Rebel, including last year's renewal captured by Nadal.

Gary and Mart West homebred Concert Tour, a Street Sense bay, will stretch out following a half-length score in the seven-furlong Grade 2 San Vicente on February 6 at Santa Anita. SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Stonestreet Stables, Golconda Stable, Siena Farm and Robert E. Masterson's Hozier, a Pioneerof the Nile colt bought at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, graduated at second asking around two turns on February 15 at Santa Anita.

Joel Rosario will guide Concert Tour from post 7, while Martin Garcia has the call on Hozier from post 3.

Graded stakes action at Oaklawn on Saturday kicks off in Race 5 (3:03 p.m.) with the Grade 2, $350,000 Azeri at 1 1/16-miles featuring the seasonal debut of 2020 Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks-winner Shedaresthedevil.

The Cox-trainee won the Grade 3 Honeybee at the Azeri distance last year at Oaklawn. A compact field of field includes win machine Letruska, who has captured 12-of-16 career starts for trainer Fausto Gutierrez; and the improving Envoutante, who earned a career-best 101 Beyer last out in a six-length romp of the Grade 2 Falls City in November at Churchill Downs.

Additional stakes on Saturday's Oaklawn card include the $500,000 Essex [Race 7, 4:08 p.m.], a 1 1/16-mile test for older horses; the $150,000 Temperence Hill [Race 9, 5:13 p.m.], a 12-furlong test for older horses; and the $200,000 Hot Springs [Race 10, 5:45 p.m.], featuring Whitmore, the reigning Champion Male Sprinter who has won the last four editions of the six-furlong sprint for older horses.

Saturday's Aqueduct card offers the 81st edition of the $100,000 Correction [Race 9, 4:55 p.m.], a six-furlong sprint for older fillies and mares led by West Coast-based Amuse, a multiple graded stakes placed daughter of Medaglia d'Oro for Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella.

Aqueduct's Sunday card will be headlined by the 42nd renewal of the $100,000 Damon Runyon, a seven-furlong sprint for New York-bred sophomores.

America's Day at the Races is also broadcast on NYRA's YouTube channel which boasts more than 65,000 subscribers. Fans can subscribe to NYRA's channel and set a reminder to watch the show on YouTube Live. NYRA's YouTube channel also hosts a plethora of race replays, special features, America's Day at the Races replays and more.

Free Equibase-provided past performances are available for races that are part of the America's Day at the Races broadcast and can be accessed at https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/tv-schedule.

NYRA Bets is the official wagering platform of Aqueduct Racetrack, and the best way to bet every race of the winter meet. Available to horseplayers nationwide, the NYRA Bets app is available for download today on iOS and Android at www.NYRABets.com.

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Baffert: Rebel Stakes Offers ‘Perfect Timing’ For Unbeaten Concert Tour

Perhaps no trainer in Oaklawn's 117-year history has had a tighter hold on a high-end race than Bob Baffert. That race, of course, is the Rebel Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds at 1 1/16 miles.

The Southern California-based Baffert has been represented by 13 horses in the Rebel – at least one starter every year since his first in 2010 – and has won the race a record seven times, finished second three times and third once, bankrolling a whopping $3,171,000 in purses.

“The reason I've been so successful is I've brought some serious horses up there,” Baffert said Tuesday afternoon. “I usually try to bring my best horses there.”

The Hall of Fame trainer bids for an eighth Rebel victory when he sends out unbeaten Concert Tour (2 for 2) and recent maiden graduate Hozier in Saturday's $1 million race. Both horses arrived at Oaklawn at 11:30 am Wednesday after a Tex Sutton flight from California. The Rebel is Oaklawn's third of four Kentucky Derby points races.

Baffert has won the Rebel with Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old males Lookin At Lucky (2010) and American Pharoah (2015) and was runner-up, beaten a nose, in the second division in 2019 with another champion juvenile male, Game Winner. Baffert won the race in 2012 with future Breeders' Cup Sprint champion Secret Circle. A future Eclipse Award-winning older dirt male, Improbable, finished second in the first division in 2019. Baffert's other Rebel winners, The Factor (2011), Hoppertunity (2014), Cupid (2016) and Nadal (2020), all went on to capture Grade 1 events.

Lookin At Lucky used the Rebel as a springboard to a Preakness victory and another Eclipse Award (champion 3-year-old male) in 2010. American Pharoah raised the bar five years later, sweeping the Triple Crown and being named Horse of the Year.

Clearly, the Rebel has become a race Baffert circles each year in mapping out the best route to reach Churchill Downs, and beyond.

“It's an easy ship,” Baffert said. “It's a real easy ship. The flight's a couple of hours and it's a nice track. I like the surface there. I like Oaklawn. I wish I could go myself, but somebody's got to stay here all the time. I just think it's a good gauge because there's always nice horses up there.”

Baffert's most accomplished 2021 entrant is Concert Tour, who will be making his two-turn debut in the Rebel. Concert Tour's resume is virtually identical to Nadal (then 2 for 2) before the 2020 Rebel.

Concert Tour broke his maiden Jan. 15 at Santa Anita and won the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) Feb. 6 at Santa Anita. Nadal, in 2020, broke his maiden Jan. 19 at Santa Anita and won the San Vicente (G2) Feb. 9 before his successful two-turn debut in the Rebel (G2) March 14.

“The timing's right for this horse, Concert Tour,” Baffert said. “He's sort of on the same path as Nadal. It's all about timing. This race happened to come up perfect timing for him. So, we'll stretch him out. We're getting close now. I just want to see a good effort out of him, see how he's going to ship, how he's going to handle the ship, then shipping to run against some really nice horses. This is where they start to see if you're fit or not on the road to the Derby.”

A son of 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, Concert Tour is a homebred for Gary and Mary West. The Wests have campaigned, among others, Rockamundo, who sprang a monumental upset in the 1993 Arkansas Derby, and Game Winner. They also have another leading Kentucky Derby candidate, unbeaten homebred Life Is Good, with Baffert.

Hozier is by Baffert's 2009 Kentucky Derby runner-up, Pioneerof the Nile, out of multiple graded stakes winner Merry Meadow. Purchased for $625,000 at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, Hozier finished fourth, beaten 14 lengths by Concert Tour, in his Jan. 15 career debut before breaking his maiden at 1 1/16 miles Feb. 15 at Santa Anita.

“I would have preferred an allowance race for him, but we just couldn't get them to fill out here,” Baffert said. “It's tough. So, I thought, 'Well, he's doing good and maybe like Spielberg he'll get a little piece of it or something.' If things go crazy on the front end, you never know.”

Spielberg, also trained by Baffert, finished second to champion Essential Quality in the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27 at Oaklawn. The Southwest, originally scheduled to be run Feb. 15 before being postponed twice because of harsh winter weather, was Oaklawn's second Kentucky Derby points race.

The Rebel will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 runners. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times, including last year's rescheduled version (COVID-19) with eventual Horse of the Year Authentic and in 2018 with Justify, who would also capture the Triple Crown.

“I'm really fortunate with the clientele I have,” Baffert said. “I think American Pharoah really opened the doors for me. I really started getting really nice horses. Before, I just had to go out and buy my own. Now, I'm getting good horses sent to me. My best horses are the homebreds, and they were bred by Gary and Mary West, Life Is Good and this horse.”

The projected eight-horse Rebel field from the rail out: Caddo River, Florent Geroux to ride, 122 pounds; Big Lake, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 117; Get Her Number, Javier Castellano, 119; Twilight Blue, Brian Hernandez Jr., 119; Keepmeinmind, David Cohen, 119; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 117; and Super Stock, Joe Talamo, 117.

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Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour, Caddo River Stand Out In Rebel

The $1 million Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, the local prep at Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby, drew a field of eight 3-year-olds trying to earn the winner's share of 50 points on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system, not to mention the minimum $600,000 which goes to the winning owner. Among the eight, seven have two-turn experience and six have won a two-turn race, with four of those stakes winners and another stakes placed.

On the flip side, three of those with positive stakes experience are returning from layoffs ranging from 100 to 165 days and it might be a tough question to ask even those talented colts to run a winning race off those long layoffs. Get Her Number is one of those, having captured the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes at the end of September. Another is Keepmeinmind, winner of the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Super Stock finished third and second in three graded stakes last year, the most recent when the runner-up in the Street Sense Stakes at the end of October.

Then we move to the horses with the most recent efforts, with all five entering the Rebel Stakes following wins. Among that group, Caddo River and Concert Tour were stakes winners. Caddo River returned from a little over two months off to win the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on January 22, while Concert Tour won the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes at seven furlongs at Santa Anita on February 6. Hozier enters the race off a maiden win at Santa Anita and shares the barn of Bob Baffert with Concert Tour. Big Lake and Twilight Blue both won their most recent races in allowance company and are trying to step up to the stakes level with similar efforts.

Having discounted the chances of all three horses with stakes credentials who are trying to win off lengthy layoffs – Get Her Number, Keepmeinmind and Super Stock, and believing the horses coming out of maiden and allowance wins may need a bit of maturing and seasoning to win a race at this level, it appears Concert Tour and Caddo River are standouts in terms of probability to win.

Concert Tour has won both starts of his career, the first a six furlong race on Jan. 15 with a 100 Equibase Speed Figure and the second when winning the San Vicente Stakes on Feb. 6 with an even better 106 figure which is the best any horse in the Rebel field has earned. Showing a lot of maturity when racing in third in the early stages, Concert Tour moved professionally to the lead in the final sixteenth of a mile and won by a half-length. Jockey Joel Rosario was aboard for both wins and rides back in the Rebel and the colt put in a snazzy six furlong workout in 1:11.4 on March 6 to show he's in tip-top form. Concert Tour has a fantastic pedigree for going long as a son of Street Sense out of a Tapit mare. Sons of Street Sense such as Maxfield, McKinzie and Avery Island have had a big impact the past few seasons in 3-year-old races and of course there's the Baffert factor as well. A simple STATS Race Lens query exemplifies what racing fans know internally about Baffert's success in three year old races, showing over the last five years Baffert trainees have won 33 of 95 dirt route graded stakes for three year olds. Additionally, there's no concern about a Baffert charge stretching out to a route for the first time in a graded stakes, as he won the 2020 Rebel with Nadal off a sprint, as well as the 2021 Sham Stakes with current early Kentucky Derby favorite Life is Good.

Caddo River was very impressive winning the Smarty Jones Stakes on Jan. 22 at Oaklawn by 10 lengths. Cruising to the lead from the start, Caddo River kept a steady pace to draw away by three lengths with a quarter mile to go, by six lengths with an eighth of a mile to go before coasting home. Earning a 101 figure, the same earned when winning his previous start in November, Caddo River could easily take a huge step forward in his second start off the layoff and run well enough to win the Rebel Stakes, particularly if allowed to control the pace from a rail he draws. Jockey Florent Geroux has been aboard for the colt's last two wins and rides back and the fact that Caddo River won over the track could give him a familiarity edge over Concert Tour. Although he's been training for many years, trainer Brad Cox truly burst into the big leagues the past few years, and on fewer starters than Baffert in three year old dirt route races his numbers are quite similar in terms of percentage. Cox has a record of 10 for 28 in three year old dirt route graded stakes over the past five years including Essential Quality, winner of the Southwest Stakes at the end of February, and Mandaloun, recent winner of the Risen Star Stakes. If Caddo River wins or even finishes second, that would give Cox three major players as we head into the biggest races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Big Lake (95), Get Her Number (88), Hozier (89), Keepmeinmind (91), Super Stock (93) and Twilight Blue (100).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Caddo River

Rebel Stakes – Grade 2
Race 11 at Oaklawn Park
Saturday, March 13 – Post Time 6:16 PM E.T.
One and One Sixteenth Miles
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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