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Baffert Looking for ‘Concert’ Encore in Arkansas Derby

After losing presumptive GI Kentucky Derby favorite Life Is Good (Into Mischief) to injury for several months, Bob Baffert may still have the Derby chalk in his barn if his undefeated 'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour (Street Sense) can follow up his dominant GII Rebel S. score with a similar performance against just five rivals in Saturday's $1-million GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn.

Unveiled as an even-money favorite going six furlongs Jan. 15 at Santa Anita, the Gary and Mary West homebred scored a good-looking wire-to-wire victory and repeated with a half-length triumph in the GII San Vicente S. there Feb. 6. Stretched out to two turns for the first time in the Rebel here Mar. 13, the bay set a sharp pace and drew clear strongly in the lane for a convincing 4 1/4-length success. Pegged as the even-money favorite on the morning line with regular rider Joel Rosario, he drilled six furlongs in 1:12 4/5 (1/5) at his Arcadia home base Apr. 3.

The Rebel was billed as a clash between Concert Tour and fellow promising 'Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun), but that battle never materialized, as frontrunning Caddo River was taken off the lead and got rank before finishing a distant fifth. Trainer Brad Cox has promised more aggressive tactics in the Arkansas Derby for the Shortleaf Stable homebred, who previously crushed his Smarty Jones S. rivals by 10 1/4 lengths to follow up a 9 1/2-length third-out graduation. With just 10 Derby qualifying points, he needs a top two finish to punch his ticket to Louisville.

“We're going to try and be a little bit more involved early if we can,” he told the Oaklawn notes team. “That's really the tactics we're going to take into the race. We'll see if that works any different. He's probably more of a free-running horse. I think we found that out last time. Florent took a hold of him up the backside and that didn't really seem what he wanted to do.”

The second, fourth and seventh finishers from the Rebel also re-oppose. Hozier (Pioneerof the Nile) completed a Baffert exacta that day at 18-1 and another move forward is possible in just his fourth career start.

“I just feel fortunate that I have these two after losing Life Is Good,” Baffert said. “It's pretty tough, you know, but that's why everything works itself out for the Derby. The horse will get you there.”

Late-running Super Stock (Dialed In) rallied to be fourth in the Rebel and was third to champion Essential Quality (Tapit) three back in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Get Her Number (Dialed In) was seventh with a troubled trip making his sophomore debut in the Rebel after winning the GI American Pharoah S. to close out his 2-year-old season.

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Concert Tour Arrives At Oaklawn For Saturday’s Arkansas Derby

There's a concert tour stopping late Saturday afternoon at Oaklawn and if it's anything like March 13, it will be another virtuoso performance.

That's because unbeaten Concert Tour, a homebred for Gary and Mary West, will be heavily favored to enhance his credentials as a leading Kentucky Derby candidate in the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at 1 1/8 miles.

Probable post time for the Arkansas Derby, which will be televised live by NBC Sports Network, is 6:41 p.m. (Central). It goes as the 12th of 13 races. First post Saturday is 12:02 p.m., with the infield open, weather permitting.

The Arkansas Derby is one of four stakes Saturday at Oaklawn, the others being the $500,000 Count Fleet Sprint Handicap (G3) for older horses at 6 furlongs, $400,000 Oaklawn Mile for older horses and the $250,000 Carousel for older fillies and mares at 6 furlongs.

The projected six-horse Arkansas Derby field from the rail out following Tuesday's post-position draw: Super Stock, Ricardo Santana Jr. to ride, 122 pounds, 6-1 on the morning line; Caddo River, Florent Geroux, 122, 7-2; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 118, 3-1; Get Her Number, Francisco Arrieta, 122, 6-1; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 122, even money; and Last Samurai, Jon Court, 118, 15-1.

Concert Tour is coming off an eye-catching 4 ¼-length victory in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) at 1 1/16 miles March 13, the final major local prep for the Arkansas Derby.

Concert Tour, in his two-turn debut and first start outside Southern California, zipped to the lead under Rosario, turned back Caddo River at the quarter pole and coasted home to remain unbeaten in three starts. It marked a record eighth Rebel victory for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has owned Oaklawn's four-race Kentucky Derby prep series the last decade.

Since the Arkansas Derby also brings back the 2-4-5-7 finishers from the Rebel, it means Concert Tour will be facing essentially the same group he dominated a month ago. Baffert trains Rebel runner-up Hozier, too.

“Those two horses, both are doing really well,” Baffert said. “It's a short field. I'm surprised it was with all the horses that were up there this year, trying to get points.”

The Arkansas Derby will offer 170 points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10) toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby May 1 at Churchill Downs. The 1 ¼-mile race is limited to 20 starters, with starting preference given to the top 18 point earners in designated races like the Arkansas Derby. The top point earners on the European and Japan Road the Kentucky Derby will receive invitations.

Concert Tour earned 50 points for his Rebel victory and ranks No. 11 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard compiled by Churchill Downs. Hozier (20 points) is No. 24, Grade 1 winner Get Her Number (10) is No. 29, Rebel fifth Caddo River (10) is No. 30 and Rebel fourth Super Stock (9) is No. 31. Get Her Number finished seventh in the Rebel.

Concert Tour has been on the same path as the Baffert-trained Nadal was in 2020, winning his career debut in January at Santa Anita, $200,000 San Vicente (G2) at Santa Anita in his second start and the Rebel in his third.

Nadal, like Concert Tour, was a front-running winner of the Rebel but used stalking tactics to capture the second division of the $500,000 Arkansas Derby (G1). Five years earlier, Baffert's American Pharoah was a wire-to-wire winner of the Rebel before coming from off the pace to claim the Arkansas Derby en route to sweeping the Triple Crown.

Caddo River was a front-running 10 ¼-length winner of the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 22 at Oaklawn, but chose not to engage Concert Tour early in the Rebel. Asked if believed Concert Tour would be tracking Caddo River in the Arkansas Derby, “Baffert said, “I don't know.”

“Concert Tour's very fast,” Baffert said. “He's quick, really fast. I think the break is important, how you leave there. You never know what's going to happen. You don't know what the strategy's going to be. I just worry about my own horses. If he (Caddo River) goes, he (Rosario) will just ride his own horse and see what he does. My other horse has speed, too. Going a mile and an eighth, it's a different story.”

Caddo River was favored over Concert Tour in the Rebel and looks to turn the tables Saturday with a more aggressive approach early, trainer Brad Cox said. Caddo River is again drawn inside of Concert Tour.

“Little more of a free-running horse, we think,” Cox said. “It (Rebel) was just his fifth start and he was coming off a little bit of a freshening, I guess you could say, being seven weeks between races. We're just hoping that he can kind of get a little bit more of a forward run and maybe the jock drops his hands and kind of let him do his thing and get in a big rhythm and see if that works a little better than it did last time. If it doesn't, were in trouble – bottom line.”

In addition to American Pharoah and Nadal, Baffert won the Arkansas Derby in 2012 with Bodemeister, who rolled by 9 ½ front-running lengths. Baffert also won the last year's first division of the Arkansas Derby with the speedy Charlatan, but he was disqualified because of a medication violation. The case is under appeal. Overall, Baffert has 16 victories in Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn – all since 2010. Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby a record-tying six times.

“I just feel fortunate that I have these two after losing Life Is Good,” Baffert said, referring to an injury that knocked his unbeaten colt off the Kentucky Derby trail. “It's pretty tough, you know, but that's why everything works itself out for the Derby. The horse will get you there.”

The Wests won the 1993 Arkansas Derby with Rockamundo, who paid $218.

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Equibase Analysis: Concert Tour Looks Tough To Beat In Arkansas Derby

Following an impressive 4 1/4-length win four weeks ago in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park, Bob Baffert trained Concert Tour leads a field of six in this Saturday's Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby. This is the last race of the season to award 100 Road to the Kentucky Derby points to the winner, assuring that horse of a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate in three weeks.

Rebel Stakes runner-up Hozier, also trained by Baffert, looks to be competitive once more. Super Stock and Get Her Number finished fourth and seventh, respectively, in the Rebel and look to improve. Super Stock won the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity last summer and although no worse than fourth in four races since is still winless since then.

Get Her Number was victorious in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes last September then skipped the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and his seventh place Rebel effort was his first start in more than five months. Caddo River was sent to post as the 6 to 5 favorite in the Rebel and faded to fifth after pressing Concert Tour from the start. He won the Smarty Jones Stakes in wire-to-wire fashion prior to that. Last Samurai rounds out the field and was beaten 13 lengths when fifth in the Southwest Stakes in his only stakes try.

Leading the field by what could be a figurative, as well as literal, country mile is Concert Tour, who may have a tactical advantage in the Arkansas Derby in that he can win on the front end or from off the pace. Concert Tour won the San Vicente Stakes at the distance of seven furlongs in February in only the second start of his career, showing a lot of maturity when relaxing in third in the early stages before going by the top two pacesetters for the win. That effort earned a career-best, and field high, 106 Equibase Speed Figure. Then in the Rebel Stakes, jockey Joel Rosario took the racetrack away from favorite Caddo River because in spite of drawing the seven post in the gate, Concert Tour had the lead a few strides after the start and never looked back. The 105 figure earned could have been higher but there was no reason to ask him to run all out in the stretch after opening up by four lengths with no threats behind. Returning to Baffert's Southern California base after the Rebel, Concert Tour has continued to work strongly and could easily handle this field to bring his record to a perfect four-for-four, similar to current early Kentucky Derby favorite Essential Quality, who won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes one week ago to bring his record to five-for-five.

Hozier passed five horses in the last half-mile of the Rebel Stakes when rallying from seventh to second and although no match for his stablemate it was a credible effort. He earned an 89 figure one race prior that in his two-turn debut second start of his career and he improved considerably to a 99 figure in the Rebel. Hozier is certainly on a pattern to run even better while gaining the 40 Road to the Derby points for finishing second and enabling him to start in the big dance three weeks from now.

Caddo River may have to choose different tactics than were planned for the Rebel to be successful in the Arkansas Derby in order to win but that may not be out of the question. After winning both route starts wire to wire by an average of almost 10 lengths in November and January, the latter in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn with a 101 figure, Caddo River was just not fast enough to beat Concert Tour to the lead in the Rebel and took up a stalking position he had not previously used in a route race from the start. When asked to move up, Caddo River did not have anything to offer and ended up tiring to fifth of eight at the end, regressing to a 95 figure effort. Drawing inside Concert Tour in the gate once more in the Arkansas Derby, either Caddo River will be more intent on getting the lead from Concert Tour and get as brave as that one did in the Rebel¸ or perhaps this time he may show a finishing kick as he did last fall in the second start of his career, in a sprint, when rallying from third and one length back to make the lead before settling for second. In any event, it may be that even if this colt does run his best race it may not be good enough to beat either of the Baffert trainees.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Get Her Number (92), Last Samurai (84) and Super Stock (95).

Win Contenders:
Concert Tour
Hozier

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Arkansas Derby: Cox Instructs Geroux To Be ‘More Aggressive’ Early With Caddo River

Brad Cox already has two horses ticketed to the Kentucky Derby in unbeaten champion Essential Quality and Mandaloun. Whether the 2020 Eclipse Award-winning trainer has a third will depend on the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) Saturday at Oaklawn.

Cox will send out Caddo River in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby, which is Oaklawn's fourth and final Kentucky Derby points race. A homebred for John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs, Caddo River got off to a rousing start on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, registering a record-breaking 10 ¼-length front-running victory in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Jan. 22 at Oaklawn in his two-turn, stakes and 3-year-old debut.

But in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2) at 1 1/16 miles March 13 – Oaklawn's third Kentucky Derby points race – Concert Tour, from post 7, beat favored Caddo River to the lead going into the first turn, controlled the pace throughout and cruised home by 4 ¼ lengths to remain unbeaten in three career starts. It was Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert's record-extending eighth Rebel victory. Caddo River, keen early following a rail draw, finished fifth, beaten 6 ¾ lengths, after chasing Concert Tour on the outside to the top of the stretch.

Caddo River will try to reignite his Kentucky Derby hopes in the Arkansas Derby, a race Anthony has won a record three times (1980 with Temperence Hill, 1987 with Demons Begone and 1992 with Pine Bluff).

“Post-wise, it's very similar, I guess, to last time,” Cox said Tuesday afternoon. “We'll see how things go. We're going to try and be a little bit more involved early – more aggressive, I think, if we can. That's really the tactics we're going to take into the race. We'll see if that works any different.”

The projected six-horse Arkansas Derby field from the rail out following Tuesday's post-position draw: Super Stock, Ricardo Santana Jr. to ride, 122 pounds; Caddo River, Florent Geroux, 122; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 118; Get Her Number, Francisco Arrieta, 122; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 122; and Last Samurai, Jon Court, 118.

Caddo River has had two published workouts, both against stablemates, since the Rebel. He went a half-mile in :48 March 27 and 5 furlongs in 1:00.20 last Saturday. Caddo River's workmate last month, Joe Frazier, returned to win an entry-level allowance sprint for 3-year-olds last Saturday at Keeneland. Caddo River breezed last weekend with Night Ops, a multiple stakes-winning older horse.

“Not really anything other than what we've done in the past,” Cox said. “Just maintain fitness, really, I guess would be the thing. He's a good work horse. Probably more of a free-running horse. I kind of think we found that out last time. Florent kind of took ahold of him up the backside and that didn't really seem what he (Caddo River) wanted to do.”

The Arkansas Derby will offer 170 points to the top four finishers (100-40-20-10) toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby. The 1 ¼-mile race is limited to 20 starters, with starting preference given to the top 18 point earners in designated races like the Arkansas Derby. The top point earners on the European and Japan Road the Kentucky Derby will receive invitations.

Concert Tour earned 50 points for his Rebel victory and ranks No. 13 on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard compiled by Churchill Downs. Stablemate and Rebel runner-up Hozier (20 points) is No. 26, Grade 1 winner Get Her Number (10) is No. 33, Caddo River (10) is No. 36 and Rebel fourth Super Stock (9) is No. 41. Get Her Number finished seventh in the Rebel.

Caddo River will need a strong showing Saturday, likely first or second, to join Essential Quality and Mandaloun in the Kentucky Derby starting gate for Cox May 1 at Churchill Downs.

“I don't think we want to run in the Derby unless we feel like we have a real shot,” said Cox, who has never had a Kentucky Derby starter. “Ultimately, that's going to be up to Mr. John Ed. On my end, I want to go into the Derby, if we're fortunate to have three horses, with three live shots, not what I feel like are two live shots right now and another horse just kind of getting in the way. I think the talent's there for him to be a Derby horse. He needs to show up and show that he can swim in the deep end of the pool on Saturday.”

Anthony, among the most successful owners in Oaklawn history, has had a resurgence in recent years. He has had six Kentucky Derby starters, the last coming in 1993 with Prairie Bayou, who finished second as the betting favorite. Anthony also had the favorite in 1987 with Demons Begone, who bled shortly after the start and didn't finish the race. Pine Bluff ran fifth in the 1992 Kentucky Derby. Both Prairie Bayou and Pine Bluff did win the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Cox won Oaklawn's second Kentucky Derby points race this year, the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27, with Essential Quality, who earned an Eclipse Award as the country's champion 2-year-old male of 2020. Essential Quality remained unbeaten (5 for 5) in the $800,000 Blue Grass Stakes (G2) last Saturday at Keeneland. Mandaloun won the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds.

Essential Quality (140 points) and Mandaloun (52) rank No. 1 and No. 12, respectively, on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.

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