Classic Causeway Looks To Hold Serve in Tampa Bay Derby

Currently ranked number one on the TDN Triple Crown Top 12, Kentucky West Racing LLC & the Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust's Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) will attempt to further cement his position as a chief protagonist of the 2022 sophomore crop when he jumps a warm favorite in Saturday's GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby on what projects a pretty wet afternoon on Florida's Suncoast.

One of three from the final crop of the 'Iron Horse' and one of two in the race, the blaze-faced chestnut made the most of a late start to his freshman campaign with an eye-catching debut score at Saratoga in September and was third from a horror draw when favored at 19-10 in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland the following month. A clear runner-up–with GIII Holy Bull S. hero White Abarrio (Race Day) second–in what has become a key running of the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill Nov. 27, Classic Causeway made all the running in this track's GIII Sam F. Davis S. Feb. 12, controlling the pace while stuck down inside of a longshot rival before charging home 3 3/4 lengths to the good of New York-bred Shipsational (Midshipman).

“He came out of the [Sam F. Davis] very well, he's carrying good weight and he has great energy, so we're counting our blessings,” trainer Brian Lynch said. “He seemed to really like the racetrack, so we thought the smart thing was to take him back over there and have a crack at the Tampa Bay Derby.”

The last to complete the Davis/Derby double was Destin–a son of Giant's Causeway–in 2016, while the stallion's Carpe Diem took the 2015 Derby. Giant's Causeway is also the broodmare sire of 2013 Tampa Derby hero Verrazano (More Than Ready).

Giant Game (Giant's Causeway), third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but well beaten in the Holy Bull, resurfaces here after being scratched out of last weekend's GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S.

Perfect in a pair of juvenile appearances, WinStar Farm and Siena Farm's Major General (Constitution) makes his 3-year-old bow Saturday. The $420,000 Keeneland September grad narrowly bested a group of Saratoga maidens on debut Aug. 21 and made it two straight with a neck success in the GIII Iroquois S. in Louisville Sept. 18. The dark bay tries two turns for the first time here.

The well-tried Strike Hard (Flashback) won a Gulfstream allowance going the one-turn mile Dec. 5, earning 4-5 favoritism for the Jan. 1 Mucho Macho Man S. over the same track and trip. Beaten four lengths into second by Fountain of Youth hero Simplification (Not This Time) on that occasion, he endured a difficult wide trip in the Davis and although he failed to make up any ground in the final furlong, clawed his way past three rivals to finish fourth. He's slightly better drawn here and gets a significant jockey upgrade from Leonel Reyes to Luis Saez.

New shooters include Happy Boy Rocket (Runhappy), a good-looking allowance winner going two turns in Hallandale Jan. 29; Money Supply (Practical Joke), who Beyered 91 in breaking his maiden at first asking going six furlongs over this strip Feb. 12; and Belgrade (Hard Spun), who topped the horses-of-racing-age section at Keeneland January on a bid of $700,000 and exits a determined entry-level allowance score over six furlongs Feb. 19.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 8

Sometimes a big weekend of prep races brings answers to key development questions on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. Other times–like this past Saturday–those major stakes only produce more questions. Part of the fun about the emerging puzzle this year is that at this point, no one contender within the Top 12 stands very far above his peers.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

Trainer Brian Lynch has termed both of Classic Causeway's works since his Feb. 12 victory as “strong” and he is confident this colt's apparent fondness for racing over the sandy Tampa strip will make him a worthy favorite in Saturday's GII Tampa Bay Derby. A glance at the latest “probables” list shouldn't inspire much fear in the favorite's camp, because unless there's an unexpected entrant before draw time Wednesday, there are no other Top 12 contenders making the trip to Tampa.

But–as annually warned in this space–Tampa sometimes produces quirky results, and the last four editions of its Derby have been won by longshots at odds higher than 8-1. Between 1987 and 1996, before Tampa's sophomore stakes became attractive, points-awarding Kentucky Derby preps, four sophomores swept both the Davis and the Tampa Derby. But in the 25 years since then, only two horses have managed that increasingly difficult double (Burning Roma in '01 and Destin in '16). Yet this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper brings impressive credentials: His Davis romp featured an impressive burst of late-race acceleration that produced the fastest final sixteenth of any prep at 1 1/16 miles so far this season, and he ran tenaciously as a juvenile against heavy hitters in two of the more difficult graded stakes last autumn.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy beat three next-out stakes winners in his visually arresting GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. victory last November, and his February comeback in the GII Risen Star S. was punctuated by a too-late closing kick after enduring mild trip trouble. As the highest-priced of 45 Runhappy yearlings to sell at auction in 2020 ($185,000 FTKSEL after a $175,000 KEENOV buy), Smile Happy stands out as a colt with a maturity edge who responds to being rated off the pace and is capable of uncorking highly torqued far-turn moves that aren't in the toolboxes of most rivals. On Saturday at Gulfstream, he was back on the work tab for the first time since his last race, breezing a half mile in :49.03 (33/76). Two Grade I's, the Curlin Florida Derby or the Toyota Blue Grass S., have been mentioned as a possible next start, and Kenny McPeek said a factor in the decision will be a desire by owner Lucky Seven Stable to keep Smile Happy separated from stablemate Rattle N Roll (Connect), who is ranked at No. 12.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Probable for GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: N/A.

   'TDN Rising Star' Messier now has two published workouts since his blowout 15-length, 103-Beyer thumping of the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. field on Feb. 6. This $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker is parked atop the depth chart within trainer Bob Baffert's perennially deep stable of Derby contenders, but his starting status for the first leg of the Triple Crown is in limbo while Baffert litigates both a banishment by Churchill Downs, Inc., and an equine medication suspension by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Although the subpar Lewis field is not a proper measuring stick to judge how good Messier might really be, note that two starts back this colt beat Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) in the GIII Bob Hope S., and that rival has since won two Santa Anita graded stakes in succession, including last Saturday's GII San Felipe S.

4) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 12.

Mo Donegal was the 3-1 morning-line favorite for last Saturday's GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. until he scratched three days before the race. The scratch itself wasn't a shocker, because trainer Todd Pletcher had said at entry time that Mo Donegal's starting status would be post-draw dependent. So when this $250,000 KEESEP colt drew the 12 hole–hardly ideal for a closer on Gulfstream's short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration–Pletcher withdrew. Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing told TDN that Mo Donegal had also developed a “minor virus,” which now means the GII Wood Memorial S. Apr. 9 at Aqueduct will serve as the colt's lone Derby prep stakes between February and May. Pletcher “didn't seem particularly concerned about this,” Crawford said. “Before the virus popped up, one of the options we were seriously considering was training up to the Wood. So this isn't that big a change of plans for us.”

5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

It's too early in the season for there to be a “wise guy” horse among the Derby aspirants. That informal designation annually gets applied to a better-than-he-looks contender sometime around Derby week itself, and it's a figurative way of saying the supposed sharpies will be pounding that horse in the betting because they see value where the public doesn't. But Zandon's adversity-overcoming narrative has been so well publicized this winter that you have to start to wonder if he'll be able to live up to it. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart is still only a MSW sprint winner. But his widespread appeal stems from the way Zandon handled himself under duress in two nine-furlong stakes. His loss by a head when getting roughed up in the stretch of the GII Remsen S. made national headlines because of the controversial non-DQ of Mo Donegal. And every trip handicapper in the nation noted Zandon blowing the break of the Risen Star S., only to catch the eye with a stout three-furlong run that culminated with Zandon digging in to win a tight photo for third. We've all seen his potential, but pretty soon he's going to have to actually deliver. Trainer Chad Brown has mentioned the GI Blue Grass S. as this colt's next start. That's a race that Brown knows how to target effectively: The last four times Brown has had a starter in the Blue Grass, the results have been one win and three close seconds.

6) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

The way it stands now, Epicenter will be the only Top 12 contender to complete the month of March with at least six lifetime starts under his belt. That's still not very many based on historical benchmarks. But under the current less-is-more Derby training mindset, it could give this $260,000 KEESEP colt an advantage over more lightly raced peers. Nyquist in 2016 was the last Derby winner to amass at least seven starts prior to Louisville, and it seems like ages ago when California Chrome started 10 times prior to his 2014 Derby victory. (The last Derby winner with double-digit starts before him? Charismatic with 14 in 1999.) Epicenter's seasoning is already evident in the unruffled, no-nonsense way he goes about his business, and while not a flashy sort of frontrunner, he cranks out honest fractions and fights off whoever comes after him without looking intimidated or in over his head. If he runs away with the 1 3/16-miles GII Louisiana Derby in his next start, he'll additionally be the only A-list sophomore to have won both at and beyond nine furlongs.

7) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-1, $411,350. Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 54.

Simplification had been pegged as a needs-the-lead type of horse as recently as last month. But when he tossed his head at the break and then showed he could come from behind to get second in the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., trainer Antonio Sano sensed he might have a colt capable of firing well regardless of where he was positioned. In Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth , Simplification ($50,000 RNA KEENOV) saved ground near the fence while midpack through the first turn, then was angled out to avoid getting pocketed on the back straight. Jockey Jose Ortiz did some lateral weaving and minor brake tapping to keep from getting stalled, but once Simplification was guided outside and into the clear approaching the far bend, it became obvious that Ortiz's strategy was not to let 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready) out of his striking sights. Simplification followed that rival and was asked to rev it up three-eighths out, and although Emmanuel got the first jump, the widest-of-all Simplification had built the better momentum. The two faves left trouble behind off the turn (neither affected by the two-horse spill right behind them), and Simplification swooped down to the inside to finish with purpose. He earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, and will be aimed at the GI Florida Derby.

8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 5.

Even though Simplification was six wide into the stretch of the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., Emmanuel ran 38 feet (about four lengths) more that the winner, according to Trakus, while checking in fourth. The read here is that this brawny 'TDN Rising Star' and $350,000 KEESEP son of More Than Ready will be a more dangerous commodity in the Florida Derby. Although Emmanuel lacked the characteristic early speed that propelled him to a 2-for-2 career start, he still put in a solid far-turn move after a four-wide journey through the clubhouse turn, a nine-wide placement on the backstretch, then a five-wide run through the far bend. He also suffered some momentum loss in upper stretch when Simplification veered down and claimed an inner path, but when Luis Saez switched Emmanuel off Simplification's heels it was clear this colt was already spent and had no true spark for the final furlong. With only five Kentucky Derby qualifying points to his credit, Emmanuel either delivers big in the Florida Derby or will have to make other plans for the first Saturday in May.

9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 50.

Forbidden Kingdom's 5 3/4-length wiring of the GII San Felipe S. on Saturday launched him into the Top 12, yet he still rates as a wild card when it comes to what the 98-Beyer victory means in the overall Derby picture. This son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL) owns rocketing early speed and an assertive way of weaponizing that chief attribute. But this year's renewal of the San Felipe came up weak on paper, and early speed had a decided advantage at Santa Anita on Saturday, with four of five dirt races being won by horses who either led all the way or dueled for the lead. And even though Forbidden Kingdom wasn't being ridden all-out once it became evident he had the race wrapped up in deep stretch, his final sixteenth of 7.09 seconds rates as the slowest among all Derby qualifying points races at 1 1/16 miles from the Breeders' Cup onward in 2021-22. But Forbidden Kingdom does have that patient Richard Mandella mojo in his favor (a master at training horses to peak when he wants them to). And as jockey Juan Hernandez put it, “He's really fast. A couple of jumps after we broke, he was in front already. I let him run because if you fight with him he tries to go faster. I let him have fun. I turned him loose and he never stopped.”

Forbidden Kingdom | Benoit Photo

10) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 10.

Is the Derby winner wintering in New York? Belmont Park-based Early Voting is being aimed for the Wood Memorial, and a win there would run his lifetime record to 3-for-3, with all of those victories at Aqueduct. That would be quite a remarkable past performance block for a Derby starter, both in terms of brevity and geography. But because trainer Chad Brown is known for taking his time with developing horses, even a Wood victory might not guarantee that he tosses this $200,000 KEESEP into the Derby fray.

In some ways, Early Voting and stablemate Zandon are yins to each other's yangs. Early Voting owns two wins, including a nine-furlong stakes, but still comes across as light on experience. Zandon is a winner of just a MSW sprint, but he's a more proven commodity when it comes to handling in-race adversity, and he's already dealt with shipping for a big stakes. There's lots to like about each, but Early Voting does seem like the one whose potential for peaking might come later in the season.

11) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

The stock of athletic, nimble White Abarrio got boosted a bit over the weekend even though he only breezed at Gulfstream in anticipation for the Florida Derby. That's because two of the horses he beat in the Holy Bull S. last month came back to win stakes in their next starts. Simplification, second in the Holy Bull, returned victorious in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., while Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) rebounded off a seventh-place try to score in the Battaglia S. at Turfway.    “[Saturday's results] really franked the form and [it] gives you some confidence when you know the form is legit,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. “We just need him to stay healthy and sound. We know he has the class and the ability.”

This son of Race Day ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has a distinct home track advantage at Gulfstream (3-for-3), and his rematch with Simplification looms as one of the more anticipated rivalries of the prep season.

12) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-0-1, $383,460. Last Start: 6th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

You could have almost put the proverbial cross-out line through Rattle N Roll's performance in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth before he even ran the race. Trainer Kenny McPeek didn't say it straight out, but he signaled pre-race that this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) wouldn't likely be fully cranked to fire his best shot off a five-month layoff. As we saw in his GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. win back on Oct. 9, this is a large-framed colt who needs the opportunity to uncoil for one prolonged bid. So being hemmed in traffic while racing over a short-stretch configuration on a surface that tilts in favor of early speed was probably not the ideal way to showcase Rattle N Roll's tactical attributes. He broke last, was guided to the rail, then incrementally advanced down the backstretch. A half mile out, he was eighth, yet only 2 1/2 lengths off the leaders in a tightly bunched field. But Rattle N Roll never truly dug in and fired at any point. I'm inclined to think his Fountain of Youth effort was too blah to be true, and that he'll be a tighter fighter at nine furlongs.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): This 2-for-2 Graham Motion trainee ($45,000 FTKSEL; $700,000 KEEJAN) listed as “likely” for Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby, which will be this colt's route debut.

Blackadder (Quality Road): Bullet move Monday morning for this $620,000 KEESEP Baffert colt who exits an off-pace win in the El Camino Real Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named 'TDN Rising Star' for Pletcher when daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. He's nominated to the Blue Grass, so that could be a possible April prep.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Led from quarter pole until 50 yards from wire after wide journey in slowly run Rebel S.; GI Arkansas Derby next for this D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEEEP colt.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) ran second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. in first two-turn try. Trainer Kelly Breen: “The Florida Derby is in our backyard, but I won't say anything until I talk to the owners and come up with a game plan.”

Major General (Constitution): The 2-for-2 winner of the Sept. 18 Iroquois S. ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) slated for Saturday's Tampa Derby off nearly six-month hiatus.

Morello (Classic Empire): Speed-centric colt ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) is now 3-for-3 in one-turn races after sharp 96-Beyer score in GIII Gotham S.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) regrouped off dirt-eating Holy Bull S. seventh with points-earning score in Turfway's Battaglia S. over Tapeta.

Un Ojo (Laoban): New York-bred gelding has already locked up 54 qualifying points for Louisville, but must prove in Arkansas Derby that his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the GII Rebel S. was no fluke.

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TDN Derby 12 for Feb. 23

We're inside the 11-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, but still a month away from the important leap to races at nine furlongs or longer. Although there was no major upheaval within the rankings this week, we do have a new No 1. The subplots thicken as the cadence quickens.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

Make no mistake: Newly top-ranked Classic Causeway didn't “inherit” the No. 1 rating on this list because the former kingpin, 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy), ran second over the weekend. Rather, Classic Causeway carved out his own spot atop the totem pole with a grace-under-pressure performance in the Feb. 12 GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa. Keen to make the pace, this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper ripped through a :22.66 opening quarter, then toned down the middle fractions while being ceaselessly hounded but always exhibiting confident body language. Classic Causeway kicked for home with three legitimate threats right behind him, but spurted away under urging before unleashing a “Wow!” gear in deep stretch that punctuated a visually impressive final sixteenth in :5.98 (the only sub-six-seconds clocking among preps at 1 1/16 miles this season). The GII Tampa Bay Derby is next. Note that the Nos. 1 and 2 colts within the Top 12 exit the two most competitive individual preps we've witnessed so far in '22 (the Davis S. and the GII Risen Star S.), and they also hail from the key juvenile race from '21, the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., which has now produced three next-out graded stakes winners and one runner-up.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy's hard-charging second after enduring traffic in the Risen Star was respectable enough off a 12-week layoff to keep him in the upper tier of the Top 12. This son of Runhappy broke adeptly, settled capably when asked to rate, then secured a spot third from last entering the backstretch. From about the five-eighths pole to the three-eighths marker he was mildly pocketed but still patiently handled by Corey Lanerie. Midway through the turn it looked as if Lanerie was about to make his move outside, but he had to hit pause on that plan when the onrushing Zandon (Upstart) claimed the same path. Turning for home, Smile Happy was walled up with too much work to do, yet when Lanerie aimed for inside passage, his colt responded to rousing. But that burst of energy three-sixteenths out put Smile Happy on the heels of a caving Pappacap (Gun Runner), so Lanerie had to shift back outside before splitting horses and clearly gaining second at the eighth pole behind a good-as-gone winner. It only took two jumps after the wire for Smile Happy to gallop out abreast of the geared-down Epicenter (Not This Time), and the 94 Beyer Speed Figure he earned for his runner-up effort adds to an upward-trending three-race arc.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Trainer Bob Baffert texted “no plans yet” several days ago when asked for a next-race update. But history can provide a good guess as to where 'TDN Rising Star' Messier will show up following his romp in the GIII Bob Lewis S. on Feb. 5. Prior to Messier's win, Baffert had won the Lewis (or its predecessor, the Santa Catalina S.) nine times. Seven of those Lewis winners next started in the GII San Felipe S. in early March. Last year, Medina Spirit won the Lewis, then ran second in both the San Felipe and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby before crossing the finish wire first in the Kentucky Derby. In 2009, Pioneerof the Nile won all three of those Santa Anita preps, then ran second in Louisville.  Those efforts stand as the best two Derby performances by Baffert horses who took the Lewis-San Felipe route.

When a horse outclasses only four others by 15 lengths like Messier did in the Lewis, it can be difficult to discern how strong the effort really was. But make no mistake about the major-league 103 Beyer Speed Figure this $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker unleashed–the only triple-digit Beyer by a 3-year-old in 2022.

This colt, like all Baffert trainees, remains ineligible to earn Derby qualifying points or to start at Churchill Downs because of Baffert's banishment by the track's corporate parent.

4) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $50,400. Last Start: 1st Tampa Bay Downs ALW. Next Start: GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel will go next in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., and if all goes according to trainer Todd Pletcher's plan, the GI Curlin Florida Derby will be his final start before Louisville. This physically imposing son of More Than Ready has paired a 78-Beyer MSW wire job in a one-turn Gulfstream mile with an 89-Beyer front-running allowance score over a mile and 40 yards at Tampa. Although the field for the Fountain of Youth is still taking shape, right now only one other Top 12 contender is listed as a likely entrant. That means Emmanuel will almost certainly start as the favorite in a race that's recently been brutal to the chalk: Fountain of Youth faves have gone down in defeat in four of the last five editions, and have managed just three wins from the last 15 (including one demotion via disqualification). Still, with 1 1/16-mile races at Gulfstream starting so close to the first turn and finishing in a short-stretch configuration, you'd have to think Emmanuel's pure speed and demonstrated fondness for the surface might erase any concerns about the negative trend for faves.

5) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 12.

Pletcher recently told TDN that “the [GII] Wood Memorial [S.] is the 100-point race that we've got him targeted for since he won the [GII] Remsen [S.] at Aqueduct.” The only question, he explained, is whether or not this $250,000 KEESEP colt by Uncle Mo will get another start between now and that Apr. 9 New York race.

In the GIII Holy Bull S., Mo Donegal was a beaten favorite while suffering the most glaring adverse trip among top Derby contenders so far this season. Riding a closer by nature, Irad Ortiz Jr. wasted a lot of lateral movement going from the rail on the first turn to the five path on the backstretch, only to attempt another blocked inside bid on the far turn before being directing his colt widest of all for a belated drive to the wire.

As Pletcher termed it, “everything kind of unfolded the wrong way for him and it took him a while to get out in the clear and able to make his run. It was the kind of effort we were hoping for, even though it wasn't the result we were wanting.”

6) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Zandon's trip to New Orleans for a prep race was exactly that–a useful preparatory effort for an overall goal that is 2 1/2 months down the road. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart broke in the air and was relegated to last in the early stages while tugging at the bit. He settled four off the rail for the back straight, then uncorked a methodical march while widest on the far turn that built momentum into a sustained three-furlong run. It appeared as if Zandon might have been losing steam at the sixteenth pole, but the colt re-engaged when he sensed a rival to his inside, digging in to win a head-bob for third.

Considering the shipping, racing under the lights, and having to square off against a much tougher crew, that's not a bad effort for a third career race. Zandon's Beyers are competitive and moving in the right direction (80, 90, 93), and trainer Chad Brown told DRF that the Apr. 9 Blue Grass (recently reinstated as a Grade I), is the next likely target.

7) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

Epicenter knows his job is to go straight to the front and establish control, and he executed that task effectively in Saturday's Risen Star over nine furlongs. Jockey Joel Rosario (and everyone else) knew this $260,000 KEESEP colt had the race wrapped up after cresting the eighth pole, and Epicenter's 98 Beyer, which he garnered by cranking out even-tempoed splits of :23.79, :24.18, :24.28, :24.33 and :12.45, establishes this son of Not This Time as a legit Louisville contender.

But in fairness, Epicenter's no-mishap win has to be juxtaposed against the trip duress suffered by the two well-backed horses who chased him through the stretch. Would he have won if both Smile Happy and Zandon had gotten clean runs at him? We've already seen that Epicenter has the physical and mental fortitude to hold off a wall of horses at the top of the lane, like he did when second in the GIII Lecomte S. And had he not gotten pipped at the final jump by an out-of-the-clouds long shot in that January race, Epicenter would otherwise be riding a four-race win streak into the GII Louisiana Derby.

Epicenter | Hodges Photography/Amanda Hodges Weir

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 10.

Even though he's two-for-two, Early Voting's relatively high Top 12 ranking isn't based so much on what he's accomplished so far as what he might be able to deliver. He's a late developer who has demonstrated improved conditioning, confidence and mental seasoning with races under his belt. So when and at what distance will this $200,000 KEESEP buy peak? That's a question everyone who owns a son or daughter of leading first-crop-sire Gun Runner wants answered.

His Beyers don't tell us much: Early Voting's 76 and 78 are both below-par for elite-level Derby contenders. But those numbers were both earned over dull-ish winter surfaces at Aqueduct (although the Beyers are designed to adjust for the nature of the surface). This colt's 4 1/2-length wiring of the GIII Withers S. field earned black type, but his MSW score in a one-turn mile actually comes off as the more impressive try.

Favored at 4-5, Early Voting pressed outside in a three-way duel, cracked one rival with sustained pressure, sparred with the other before dispatching him on the far turn, then capably repulsed a fresh run from the stalking second choice who had built up winning momentum through the stretch.

9) NEWGRANGE (c, Violence–Bella Chianti, by Empire Maker) O-Golconda Stable, Madaket Stables LLC, SF Racing LLC, Siena Farm LLC, Starlight Racing, Stonestreet Stables, LLC, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan, Robert E. Masterson & Jay A. Schoenfarber. B-Jack Mandato & Black Rock Thoroughbreds (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $125,000 yrl '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $552,000. Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S. Next Start: GII Rebel S., OP, Feb. 26. KY Derby Points: N/A.

The three-for-three Newgrange headlines Saturday's GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn, which this year is newly positioned as a late-February prep because of Oaklawn's earlier-than-usual Apr. 2 scheduling of the GI Arkansas Derby. Trainer Bob Baffert has won the last two Rebels and eight of the previous 13. But prior to Nadal's win in 2020, he saddled beaten favorites in four straight runnings (counting split divisions in '19).

This $125,000 KEESEP colt had to be really pushed along on the far turn before finishing with interest to win the GIII Southwest S., and Baffert said afterward that jockey John Velazquez told him Newgrange might not have been handling the track. Since then, the connections of several Southwest also-rans have similarly described that day's surface as being cuppy and deep in the aftermath of very cold weather, which could explain why some runners didn't care for it, and why Newgrange only earned a one-point Beyer bump off his previous effort (88 to 89).

We've now seen him wire fields and win from off the pace, so Newgrange is tactically versatile; being able to run well despite not really liking the footing also shows he doesn't need everything his own way to win.

10) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-0-1, $379,460. Last Start: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity. Next Start: Probable for GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Mar. 5. KY Derby Points: 10.

If Rattle N Roll goes Mar. 5 in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., that will represent a 21-week layoff since his 81-Beyer GI Breeders' Futurity S. score. Over the last five years, trainer Ken McPeek has won at a 16% clip with layoffs between 120 and 180 days. If you drill down to look at only the subset of 3-year-old males within those parameters, he is two for 20.    There are pluses and minuses to this $55,000 KEENOV and $210,000 KEESEP colt's Grade I win last fall. On the pro side, he displayed a high level of comfort while racing covered up midpack before launching a prolonged winning bid three furlongs out, beating No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway in the process. On the con side, Rattle N Roll really only had to outrun stragglers over a short-stretch configuration for 1 1/16 miles, and with the exception of Classic Causeway, not a single horse out of that Keeneland stakes has subsequently won a race.

11) MAJOR GENERAL (c, Constitution–No Mo Lemons, by Uncle Mo) O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Circular Road Breeders (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $265,000 ylg '20 KEEJAN; $420,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $232,525. Last Start: 1st GIII Iroquois S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 10.

They say if you wait long enough, everything cycles back into vogue again. Way back on Sept. 18, Major General won the very first qualifying points race for the '22 Derby, the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill. He was then shelved, but this Constitution colt's two-for-two record was good enough to get him listed on January's first installment of the Top 12. He was a little bit behind in training and thus got leapfrogged in the rankings, but now with seven published breezes and three straight bullet workouts, his stock is rising again.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has this $265,000 KEEJAN and $420,000 KEESEP colt humming along under the radar in preparation for a likely start in the Tampa Bay Derby. His Iroquois win earned grittiness points because Major General overcame a bobble at the start before unwinding with an all-business move 3 1/2 furlongs out. He gamely traded bumps with the favorite in upper stretch, then still had enough gas late to fend off an onrushing closer to win by a neck.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

Efficiency, athleticism and an affinity for the Gulfstream racing surface all play in White Abarrio's favor as he points for the Florida Derby. This speed-centric Race Day colt ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) owns three open-length wins at Gulfstream, and his only loss to date was a credible third at Churchill behind heavy hitters Classic Causeway and Smile Happy. But similar to what was discussed in Epicenter's write-up, in terms of the bigger Derby picture, it's legit to question how much of White Abarrio's win in the Holy Bull S. was attributable to this colt's own prowess, or to him being able to sail clear on the front end while the top four favorites behind him all endured various forms of in-race adversity. Having said that, his 97 Beyer merits respect. Only two sophomores have run a better number this year: Messier's 103 and Epicenter's 98.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): Bought for $45,000 at FTKSEL and just sold for $700,000 last month at KEEJAN, this H. Graham Motion trainee is two-for-two with wins at Fair Grounds and Tampa, and could be the sleeper in the Tampa Bay Derby, a stakes that has been won by horses with odds of 8-1 or higher in each of the last four runnings.

Blackadder (Quality Road): Nice surge late from this $620,000 KEESEP colt to catch his Baffert stablemate napping in the late stages of the El Camino Real Derby.

Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute): Lecomte S. upsetter's form got shored up when the horse he caught at the wire, Epicenter, came back to wire the Risen Star S. Four-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $37,0000 RNA KEESEP; $17,000 OBSOCT; $80,000 OBSMAR) prepping for the Louisiana Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named a 'TDN Rising Star' in start number two for Pletcher when a daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. Lots of options for a new graduate, but the Derby clock is ticking.

In Due Time (Not This Time): This three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) fired a bullet breeze last Friday off a 92-Beyer allowance win by open lengths.

The post TDN Derby 12 for Feb. 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Brian Lynch Talks Classic Causeway, John Sadler Gives Flightline Update On Writers’ Room

Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper's Classic Causeway stamped himself as a major GI Kentucky Derby contender Saturday when convincingly taking the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs for trainer Brian Lynch, and Tuesday, Lynch joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland. Sitting down with Joe Bianca and Bill Finley as the Green Group Guest of the Week, Lynch talked about his colt–one of the final horses by late superstar sire Giant's Causeway–provided updates on other top horses in his barn, reminisced about his time spent as an assistant for Bobby Frankel and more.

“I thought I might have dodged the [GIII] Holy Bull into a tougher spot, once it had all come out on paper,” Lynch said of the Sam Davis. “Because it looked like it was a pretty competitive race and a lot of horses wanted to be forwardly placed and that was the way I'd seen him running his race. When I walked into the paddock, it was a really good-looking group of 3-year-olds. But then when he walked in, I thought, 'Ah, I'm OK.' He looked great. When that :22 and change came up [for the first quarter] and they straightened for the run down the backside, I could see [jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.'s] body language telling me, 'I'm cruising. I'm comfortable. This [other horse] is hanging on to me, but I've got plenty of horse.' When we got halfway around the far turn, you could see them all try and edge up on him, but Irad still hadn't moved a finger. So that gave me plenty of confidence that he had some horse for his run down the lane.”

Asked about his time working for the legendary Frankel, Lynch said, “I trained for a lot of years out in California on my own and I'd known Bobby for many, many years before I went to work for him. I trained for Golden Eagle Farm, and when Mr. [John] Mabee died, Bobby said to me, 'They're going to downsize that operation, you need to come work for me. We've got a lot of 2-year-olds coming in here.' He talked me into coming out to Saratoga and taking a string of horses for him there. And every day, I think of what a blessing that was. It was my best move. He exposed me to a lot of good clients and a lot of good horses. When I think back, Bobby was probably not the greatest teacher, but if you were around him and didn't learn a lot, shame on you. He had that sixth sense, and he was all about the horse first. It was just a great experience to be around him for so many years, and it gave me a good feel for how to manage horses, how to get them to the races and how to keep them around.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, XBTV, Lane's End, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, the hosts welcomed John Sadler to give an injury update on his barn superstar Flightline (Tapit) and held their annual 3-year-old fantasy draft. Click here for the video podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

The post Brian Lynch Talks Classic Causeway, John Sadler Gives Flightline Update On Writers’ Room appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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