Classic Causeway | Horse Racing Free Tips

Classic Causeway Could Be Missing Piece for Trainer and Sire

HALLANDALE BEACH, FL–Brian Lynch has already proven he is a talented trainer, conditioning the likes of Grade I winners Oscar Performance, Heart to Heart, Grand Arch and Coffee Clique. While he has won several graded events on dirt, all of his top-level scorers were on turf and the main thing missing from his resume is a Triple Crown contender.

Lynch finally has that this year in Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby contender Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), who already has enough points to be his trainer's first GI Kentucky Derby starter.

“It's very exciting,” Lynch said. “I come from a small, country town in Australia, so to think I could ever have a horse who could be competitive in the Kentucky Derby is a dream. It's a great personal accomplishment for me.”

He continued, “I've been lucky to come up with some good turf horses. I've never really had the opportunity to have one this good on the dirt. He is going to show us on Saturday just how good he is.”

Classic Causeway is two-for-two this season, winning the GIII Sam F. Davis S. Feb. 12 and the GII Tampa Bay Derby exactly one month later.

“He bounced out of those races like they were races that were getting him ready for this one,” Lynch said. “We hope he is ready to fire a big one. He seems like he's in good order. He is carrying great weight. His last race was enough to give me the confidence to say, 'Let's run him here and then give him five weeks to the Derby.'”

Several past winner of the Tampa Bay Derby have trained right up to the First Saturday in May.

When asked if that option was ever under consideration, Lynch said, “I think he is the sort of horse that would benefit from another race in him. The [Kentucky] Derby is such a grueling race. You have to be able to handle traffic. You have to be able to handle bumps and grinds. The more racing experience we can get into him, the more it will help on a big day like that.”

The competition Classic Causeway will face at Gulfstream Saturday is tougher than what he has faced in his last two efforts.

“He has to be tested at some stage,” Lynch said. “We are going to find out what we've got. I think this is a good place to give him a test. I am hoping the weather stays good.”

Thunderstorms are expected to hit Hallandale Beach Friday evening and Saturday afternoon, so there is a chance Classic Causeway could be running on a wet track for the first time Saturday. While Lynch hopes for nice weather, he said he is not concerned about track condition.

“He's just a runner,” the Australia native said. “He is going to run whether it's wet, turf, dirt or down a gravel road.”

Classic Causeway is one of just three foals from the final crop of the late, great Giant's Causeway, whose legacy as a racehorse and sire speaks for itself. However, the one thing missing from that Coolmore's stallion impressive resume is a Triple Crown race winner.

“He is the son of a great horse,” Lynch said. “Giant's Causeway was the Iron Horse. We hope a little of that is in Classic Causeway.”

Lynch also has two other stakes runners Saturday with Phantom Currency (Goldencents) in the GIII Appleton S. and Red Danger (Orb) in the Cutler Bay S.

Phantom Currency was last seen 13 months ago when winning Gulfstream's GII Mac Diarmida S. in February of 2021.

“He is a lovely old horse,” Lynch said. “Coming off of a year layoff is never easy. The mile is probably a bit short for him, but he is training lights out and goes into the race in good order. This race will set him up for the [GII] Elkhorn going 1 1/2 miles at Keeneland later in the month.”

Winner of the Pulpit S. last term, Red Danger was fifth after a wide trip in this venue's GIII Kitten's Joy S. Feb. 5 and rallied to be fourth after another wide journey in the local Palm Beach S. last out Mar. 5.

“He has had two troubled trips his last two starts down there,” Lynch said. “He never had a chance to get into the race. He is drawn out wide again, but I feel like he is doing well enough that if he just needs a little bit of racing luck. He is going into the race in as good of shape as we could have him.”

Rain or shine, the Lynch barn is primed to have a big day at Gulfstream Saturday.

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White Abarrio Given Green Light For Florida Derby

C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable LLC's White Abarrio (Race Day) was confirmed a starter for Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby presented by Hill 'n' Dale at Xalapa Tuesday morning by trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. The gray colt, last seen (No dominating in the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 5, spiked a fever the on the Tuesday before his final drill, which was to be Sunday. He signaled his readiness for this weekend's task by blowing out three furlongs in :34.96 over a glib Gulfstream Park main track the morning of Mar. 29.

“He breezed phenomenal. He went super easy,” Joseph, Jr. said. “The track was probably faster because of the [Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale breeze show] yesterday. Visually, he looks well. Energy-wise he looks well. I think we've been more worried than he is. As a trainer, you're always concerned about something.

He continued, “He had his major work two weeks ago. He checked out good on Monday. On Tuesday [last week], he was supposed to go to the track to jog and he had a temp of 101.5, so we had to back off him for two days,” Joseph said. “We had to change things around.”

Winner of his first two local appearances last season, the $7,500 OBS January short yearling turned $40,000 OBS March breezer was third–with future GIII Sam F. Davis S. and GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby hero Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) second–in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. last November. He sat a perfect trip in the Holy Bull, easily defeating a troubled Simplification (Not This Time) by 4 1/2 lengths.

Joseph, Jr. said he is unconcerned about the final work coming essentially on top of the race.

“As far as blow-out, working close, that's how I grew up in Barbados,” he said. “We always blew out on Wednesday or Thursday before the race. I learned that style, but obviously I train different over here, but sometimes I would work three days before a race. I'm not concerned about that. The thing in the back of your head is he did spike a temperature last week. That's always a concern.”

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Mar. 22

We now enter the demanding segment of the GI Kentucky Derby prep schedule when most of the important stakes stretch to nine furlongs and are worth 100 qualifying points to the winners. This Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby is the focal point of the weekend, and it's also the lone 1 3/16-mile prep in North America.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 5-3-1-1, $511,100. Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 66.

In the aftermath of Classic Causeway's grace-under-pressure wiring of the GII Tampa Bay Derby, there was general consensus that his victory was visually impressive even though it yielded a subpar Beyer Speed Figure of 84 (a four-point regression off his previous stakes win). That juxtaposition makes it difficult to peg whether this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper is the real deal, Derby-wise, and it also splits his supporters and detractors along the “numbers don't lie” and “figures can't quantify everything” fault line.

I'll argue for the latter point. Factor in a drying-out track, a backstretch headwind, and Classic Causeway's geared-down run to the finish, and you can make a cogent case that quirky conditions contributed to that low number. Take a look at No. 10-ranked Early Voting's write-up below, and you'll see how the Beyer figurators (as they should when offbeat numbers merit a second look) significantly upgraded that colt's preliminary Beyer after taking into account how other horses ran back in their next-out races. Making speed figures is more of an art than a science, and Classic Causeway isn't going to be regarded as a non-threat in the GI Blue Grass S. on the basis of one on-paper blip in his past-performance block. You want a stat that confuses the overall equation even more? Consider that Classic Causeway's final sixteenth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. in :5.98 still rates as the only sub-six-seconds clocking among the 2021-22 Derby preps at 1 1/16 miles, indicating this frontrunner is capable of finishing as well as he rockets out of the gate.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY).
T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW,
3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

As of this past weekend, trainer Kenny McPeek was still on the fence between the GI Curlin Florida Derby Apr. 2 and the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. one week later for 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy. Remaining at Gulfstream (where Smile Happy has been training) throws this colt into a fight against three other Top 12 contenders, while opting for Keeneland sets up a highly anticipated showdown against No. 1-rated Classic Causeway. That pairing would be a rematch of their one-two finish in the Nov. 27 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., when this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) unleashed a devastating demonstration of deep-stretch torque to win at will over what has proven to be a deep field of late-season juveniles.

Regardless of where he goes, every handicapper on the planet is going to be factoring in that Smile Happy wasn't fully cranked for his sophomore debut at Fair Grounds, when he rallied belatedly for second in the GII Risen Star S. after suffering momentum losses on the far turn and in upper stretch. Although Smile Happy is light on actual experience (just three races), McPeek for months has been waxing positively about his above-average maturity level, which is backed by a discernible gravitas in the way this colt carries himself and goes about his business.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Beyond 'TDN Rising Star' Messier and the No. 9-ranked Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah), all is quiet on the western front of the Derby trial, with no other California-based horses looming as A-list contenders. The GI Santa Anita Derby could shake out as a short-field match-up headlined by those two, and this $470,000 FTKSEL bay by Empire Maker will have his work cut out for him in trying to assert that his 103-Beyer, 15-length trouncing of the weak GIII Robert B. Lewis S. field Feb. 5 was no fluke. Did Messier really improve his fig 20 points off his previous effort, or was that highest Beyer of the year by any 3-year-old male an illusion of his dominance over just four other horses (three fresh out of the maiden ranks)?

The layoff angle presents another conundrum: Baffert has won a record nine Santa Anita Derbies, but every single one of those winners last started in the month of March, making Messier's attempt off an eight-week break an anomaly for a Baffert trainee. Additionally, Messier currently remains ineligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points because of Baffert's banishment by Churchill Downs, Inc., (although the Hall-of-Fame conditioner has initiated litigation to challenge his Derby starting status).

4) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 12.

After a brief lapse in training because of a virus, this Uncle Mo bay was back on the Palm Beach Downs work tab Saturday, breezing a half mile in :49.41 (11/25) on even terms with stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready). When this $250,000 KEESEP colt goes next in the GII Wood Memorial, he'll partner with Joel Rosario for the first time, as Irad Ortiz, Jr., who was aboard for Mo Donegal's last three starts, has committed to ride No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway at Keeneland the same afternoon.

Already a nine-furlong winner after annexing the GII Remsen S. in December at Aqueduct, Mo Donegal was the beaten favorite when third and suffering the most brutal trip among top Derby contenders so far this season in the GIII Holy Bull S. in February. Ortiz wasted a lot of lateral movement with his deep closer in that race by going from the rail to the five path on the first turn, then getting blocked when attempting to dive back down to the fence again on the far turn. When redirected back into the clear while widest of all, Mo Donegal spurted to life in deep stretch, digging in with renewed interest and just barely getting pipped for the place photo while finishing fast under a full head of steam. The more speed in front of Mo Donegal in the Wood, the better.

5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Zandon, who just celebrated his third birthday Mar. 21, occupies a lofty spot within the Top 12 considering he's the only contender yet to win beyond the maiden ranks. But he's probably packed more “street smarts” into his three lifetime races than most colts in this less-is-more era of training Derby contenders. At least that's the working theory. The bandwagon for this $170,000 KEESEP colt was already straining at the axles based on positive impressions from his willingness to fight in the rough-and-tumble stretch run of the GII Remsen S. (second) and again in the GII Risen Star S. after missing the break (third). Last week's naming of Flavien Prat to ride Zandon in his next start at Keeneland could also be viewed as a plus. If the stars align and the racing gods deliver us a Blue Grass that features Classic Causeway, Smile Happy and Zandon, the clash of the Nos. 1, 2 and 5 horses on this list would make that Apr. 9 stakes the meatiest Derby prep the sport has witnessed in years.

6) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

Only two horses have won the GII Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby–Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. One Louisiana Derby runner-up (Funny Cide in 2003) also wore a blanket of roses in Louisville. But strangely enough, the Louisiana Derby is now on the verge of having two of its also-rans in the past three years recognized as Kentucky Derby winners via disqualification–Country House in '19 (because of an in-race foul by Maximum Security) and Mandaloun in '21 (pending an under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit).

Epicenter, this year's expected favorite, caught a break when only seven could be lured to run against him, with only one of those rivals ranked within the current Top 12. This $260,000 KEESEP son of Not This Time already checks quite a few boxes on the Derby desirability list: Five lifetime races, all with ascending Beyer Speed Figures. Three wins around two turns, and one already at nine furlongs. He breaks adeptly, uses speed as an effective weapon, but does not seem to be a needs-the-lead colt.

Epicenter fights gamely when put to pressure in the stretch, and his only loss in the past six months came after he repulsed multiple attacks before getting nailed at the wire by a pick-up-the-pieces long shot. A win on Saturday isn't crucial. But a gritty showing is imperative in a spot so seemingly favorable for Epicenter that it could loom as a “trap” race masquerading as an obvious win opportunity.

7) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-1, $411,350. Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 54.

Simplification ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) wasn't on the radar of most Derby prognosticators when the year started. But this athletic son of Not This Time has earned a spot near the top of the crop with a nice progression arc under the patient handling of trainer Antonio Sano. He flashed blitzing speed to win his maiden by 16 3/4 lengths in 1:09.81 for six furlongs back in October, and has rounded into an adaptable stalker or closer while stretching out in distance, looking comfortable and confident despite having to change his tactics. In the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., Simplification was hooked widest of all off the far turn and finished with purpose over a short-stretch 1 1/16-miles configuration. He now has six races on his résumé and a block of four 90 or better Beyers against increasingly more difficult company. The Florida Derby is next.

8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 5.

This physically robust 'TDN Rising Star' is logical but not definite for the Florida Derby. Regardless of where he starts next, bettors will be factoring in his Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. tour of the track that Trakus clocked as being 229 feet wider than a winner who journeyed six off the fence turning for home. The unknown in Emmanuel's equation has to do with whether or not he will revert to flashing the characteristic early speed that propelled him to a 2-for-2 career start. Emmanuel ran stunningly in his Gulfstream MSW debut in a one-turn mile, then capably peeled off a two-turn allowance win at Tampa while never being fully extended. But in terms of the caliber of competition he dismantled on those afternoons, it is a little concerning to see that the collective next-out records of the horses he beat is only 1-for-12, with the lone victor among that group having to drop into the maiden-claiming ranks to graduate.

9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: Possible for GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 50.

Forbidden Kingdom isn't the first (and likely won't be the last) Derby contender this season to miss scheduled training because of a mild fever. But when the same thing happened to Emmanuel in early January and Mo Donegal at the start of March, their connections simply opted for other qualifying-points prep races. That's not a luxury available to trainer Richard Mandella with this speed-centric son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL). He'd been aiming his colt for the Apr. 9 Santa Anita Derby, but had to hold him out of a workout last Friday after Forbidden Kingdom spiked a temperature. In recent years, Forbidden Kingdom could have been rerouted to the GI Arkansas Derby, which, with its traditional mid-April spot on the calendar three weeks before the Kentucky Derby, annually attracted late entrants as the lone-remaining nine-furlong, points-awarding prep. But because this year Oaklawn moved its premier stakes back to Apr. 2, an unprecedented four-week gulf now exists between the final 100-points-to-the-winner stakes and the Kentucky Derby itself.

“He has not had another temperature,” Mandella said Saturday morning. “I'm hoping we can still make the Santa Anita Derby…. So far, it looks good. I don't think it's a problem to miss the first work [since a 98-Beyer wiring of the GII San Felipe S.] because we've got time for a couple more. Everything will have to go right, and so far, it is.”

10) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 10.

Because Early Voting has only had two well-spaced starts and is still more than two weeks away from his final Derby prep, we have to do a fair amount of dissecting his company lines to size up how good he might be. It's been well publicized that the horses who ran second and fourth behind him in the Feb. 5 GII Withers S. came back to win the GII Rebel S. at 75-1 and finish second in the Tampa Derby at 37-1. In the wake of those results, Early Voting's winning 78 Beyer figure got retooled to a significantly higher 87. But two other also-rans out of the Withers could only manage second and third as the favorites in a three-horse stakes at Parx, and another was up the track in the GIII Gotham S., so it's probably prudent to hold off on hanging the “key race” label on Early Voting's easy Withers win.

The most interesting bit of info out of his two Aqueduct victories is that both occurred on dull winter surfaces that yielded tepid final times. This begs the question of what this colt might be capable of over a tighter track. Early Voting is a speed-oriented threat capable of sustained intensity, and his stock as a Derby contender is high right now as a coveted first-crop son of Gun Runner out of an unraced Tiznow mare who is a half-sister to 2004 sprint champ Speightstown. The Wood Memorial should tell us how much of that valuation is based on reality rather than perception.

11) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

This Race Day gray owns three open-length wins at Gulfstream, and his only loss was a pugnacious third at Churchill behind the Nos. 1 and 2 colts on this list. The Florida Derby is next.

“Two weeks out, so far, so good,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., on Sunday after White Abarrio breezed five furlongs in company in 1:00.42 (4/17) under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. The move was the colt's fourth workout since seizing the Holy Bull S. in February. Joseph said the workout “was more of an easier breeze with a good finish and a good gallop-out. Everything went to plan. He sat off a workmate. He relaxed well. I had his last quarter in :23, so it was a good finish.”

White Abarrio's last-win Beyer of 97 rates fourth-best this year among all 3-year-old males. But that big fig (earned under ideal trip circumstances) also represented a sizable jump off his first three Beyers (81, 81 and 80), and it will be a big ask for him to replicate or even improve upon that pattern while stepping up into Grade I company and trying nine furlongs for the first time.

12) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-0-1, $383,460. Last Start: 6th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 10.

Timing and circumstances haven't been on the side of this huge-striding grinder. At Saratoga last summer, he got caught in a quarantine barn after other horses came down with a herpes virus. Then this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) bolted on the turn when making a potentially winning move. After winning back-to-back Kentucky races in the fall (a MSW and a Grade I stakes), a foot abscess caused Rattle N Roll to miss the Breeders' Cup, where he would have been among the favorites for the GI Juvenile. Coming off a five-month layoff, he ran like a not-ready-for-prime-time colt (sixth in the Tampa Derby), and trainer Kenny McPeek had signaled before that race that we might get a glimpse of the true Rattle N Roll three weeks later when he stretched him out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby. That opportunity now presents itself, and there are only two other stakes winners lurking in the field of eight. Saturday's race in New Orleans doesn't rate as a “big easy.” But it's lacking enough sophomore star power to make it a now-or-never proposition for Rattle N Roll to stamp himself as a legit contender in Louisville.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Blackadder (Quality Road): This $620,000 KEESEP Baffert trainee could be on the traveling team to Oaklawn, where he's nominated to the Arkansas Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' for trainer Todd Pletcher appears on target for Florida Derby.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Rebel S. runner-up will be rerouted to Blue Grass S. in an effort to keep this D. Wayne Lukas trainee separated from filly stablemate Secret Oath (Arrogate), who will take on the boys in the Arkansas Derby.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) bankrolled 20 qualifying points with second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., his first two-turn try for trainer Kelly Breen.

Morello (Classic Empire): Undefeated, 96-Beyer GIII Gotham S. victor ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) should contribute to lively pace in Wood Memorial.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Bullet breeze at Keeneland last Friday for this $330,000 FTKSEL colt in first work back since Battaglia S. win over Tapeta at Turfway.

Un Ojo (Laoban): Every Derby season needs an outlandish overachiever to keep things interesting. This one-eyed New York-bred gelding, with his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the Rebel S., is that horse for 2022. He might not have universal respect, but Un Ojo owns 54 qualifying points, with only two contenders ahead of him on the leaderboard. Next up, the Arkansas Derby.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Mar. 22 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Taking Stock: Tampa Bay’s Big Day Showcased Top Outfits, Bloodstock

Tampa Bay Downs in Oldsmar, Florida, is a gem of a racecourse that doesn't get the accolades it should. Owned by Stella Thayer, president of the track and a member of The Jockey Club, and her brother, Howell Ferguson, Tampa Bay Downs is expertly managed day to day by Peter Berube, vice president and general manager, and Margo Flynn, vice president of marketing. This was obvious on Saturday–“Festival Day 42”–when the track showcased its signature event, the Gll Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, one of five black-type events on the day that attracted some of the best horsemen and outfits on the East Coast as well as a full house of racegoers and bettors. Handle for the day was a record $20.7 million.

The track is one of the few successes in N. America that operates without the benefit of slots money, although a card room does contribute minimally. Purses, therefore, pale next to other tracks with casino affiliations, but Tampa Bay Downs is the model for sustainable racing without the slots subsidies and it continues to attract South Florida-based powerhouses like Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Bill Mott, Mark Casse, Graham Motion, and Shug McGaughey, to name a few, for the quality of its racing on turf and dirt, despite its lower overall purse structure.

The big stables usually have the better stock, and this was evident in the black-type events Saturday. Heavy rain had pelted the track before noon, notably softening the turf course, but by race time for the first stakes race on the 12-race program, the Gll Hillsborough S. at 1 1/8 miles on turf for fillies and mares, carded as the seventh race, the weather was sunny and windy and both the main course and the turf were labelled as “good.”

Bleecker Street

Chad Brown had two in the $225,000 race for owner Peter Brant, Bleecker Street (Quality Road), the favorite; and imported Rocky Sky (Ire) (Rock of Gibralter {Ire}). They ran one-two, with Bleeker Street almost four lengths the better as the easiest kind of winner. Charles Fipke's Grade l winner Lady Speightspeare (Speightstown), the second choice trained by Roger Attfield, had a dream trip prompting the pace but the give in the ground and her first attempt past a mile and a sixteenth took its toll. She finished fourth, almost a length behind Gladys (Medaglia d'Oro), Rachel Alexandra's full sister, in third.

Bleecker Street is a lightly raced 4-year-old filly and is a star in the making, and it's important to note that she's done most of her important work to date at Tampa. Undefeated now in five starts, Bleecker Street's Hillsborough was her third consecutive race at Tampa, following an earlier defeat of the aforementioned Lady Speightspeare in the Glll Endeavour over the same course at a mile and a sixteenth last month. She's now ready to take on Grade l competition, perhaps at Keeneland next, and will likely become a full-fledged star on the national stage as the year progresses. If she does, it's because Tampa Bay Downs afforded her the early opportunity for development.

Bleecker Street's sire Quality Road is one of the elite stallions in N. America and is adept at getting high-quality horses on dirt and turf; he stands for $150,000 at Lane's End. Bred in Kentucky by Branch Equine, Bleecker Street was purchased by Brant's White Birch Farm for $400,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga select sale. From the restricted stakes-placed Exchange Rate mare Lemon Liqueur, she's her dam's first black-type winner. The next dam, the stakes-placed Lemon Drop Kid mare Limoncella, had only one stakes horse–Bleecker Street's dam. This isn't a particularly strong pedigree in terms of black-type production until the fourth dam, Key to Flight, by Key to the Kingdom. She's a half-sister to Group 1 winner and Irish champion 2-year-old filly Minstrella and Grade ll winner Misty Gallore–all of them produced by the influential Flight Dancer, Bleecker Street's fifth dam and Gun Runner's (Candy Ride) fourth dam.

Ned Evans owned Flight Dancer and bred Key to Flight as well as her Halo daughter Trip Around Heaven, Bleecker Street's third dam, and there's some symmetry to this mating as Evans also bred and raced Quality Road, giving Bleecker Street Evans's touch on top and bottom.

Bleecker Street is one of six black-type winners bred on the Quality Road/Danzig cross and others include Illuminant, a Grade l winner on the turf; and Captain Scotty, a Grade ll winner on dirt.

Tampa Bay Downs carded its five black-type races consecutively and the winners of those races are discussed in order below.

Scalding

Scalding (Nyquist), a 4-year-old colt trained by McGaughey for Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stable, and LNJ Foxwoods, won the $100,000 Glll Michelob Ultra Challenger S. by a neck on the main track at a mile and a sixteenth from the Mott-trained and Godolphin-owned Cody's Wish (Curlin). Dynamic One (Union Rags), trained by Pletcher and owned by Repole Stable, Phipps Stable, and St. Elias Stable, was third. McGaughey's highly regarded Greatest Honour (Tapit) finished sixth of seven. The colts in this race were an incredibly well-bred and well-connected group.

Scalding was bred by Godolphin and Cobalt Investments and was purchased by Solis/Litt at the same sale and for the same price as Bleecker Street. He's a first-crop son of Nyquist, who led the freshman sire list in 2020, and he's the second black-type winner and graded winner for his sire this year. The 3-year-old Nyquist filly Turnerloose won the Gll Rachel Alexandra S. at Fair Grounds last month.

Scalding's dam is the unraced Medaglia d'Oro mare Hot Water, who also is the dam of Grade lll-placed black-type winner Tracksmith (Street Sense) and black-type placed Tortuga (Bodemeister). The next dam is the Elusive Quality Grade lll-placed restricted black-type winner Elusive Heat, one of two black-type winners for her Grade l-winning champion dam Xtra Heat, a daughter of Dixieland Heat who won 26 races from 34 starts and earned $2.4 million.

Dolce Zel (Fr)

Chad Brown was back at it again on the turf in the $200,000 Glll Florida Oaks at a mile and sixteenth, running one-two again, this time with French import Dolce Zel (Fr) (Zelzal {Fr}) getting the better of stablemate Spicer (Quality Road) by a head. The McGaughey-trained On Alert (Medaglia d'Oro) was third. The latter was a $500,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling while Spicer sold for $300,000 at Keeneland September.

Michael Dubb, Madaket, and Robert LaPenta purchased the pint-sized Dolce Zel privately. She is from the first crop of Zelzal, a Group 1 winner by Sea the Stars (Ire) who stands this year for 15,000 euros at Haras de Bouquetot and is represented by three black-type winners to date, including Ouraika (Fr), who also happens to be campaigned by Madaket and Michael Dubb. Ouraika won the Glll Sweet Life S. on the downhill turf at Santa Anita last month for Graham Motion, also by a head like Dolce Zel. Madaket and partners clearly know how to source lightly raced European runners off the beaten path for N. America and spread them out among top trainers here. And they're lucky in photo finishes, too.

Madaket is also involved with “The Avengers” group of SF Bloodstock and Starlight Racing that have campaigned so many notable 3-year-olds with Bob Baffert, including Gl Kentucky Derby winner Authentic, and, earlier, Triple Crown winner Justify.

Dolce Zel is a member of a strong and productive American family after the first dam, the Dr Fong mare Dolce Attesa (GB), who is also the dam of Group 2-placed black-type winner Pure Zen (Fr) (Zoffany {Ire}). Dolce Zel's second dam is the Saint Ballado black-type winner Lady Gin, and this is the immediate family of Grade l winners Musical Romance (Concorde's Tune), a champion sprinter; and the ill-fated Battle of Midway (Smart Strike).

Heaven Street

Trainer Christophe Clement got into the action in the next race, the Listed $75,000 Columbia S. at a mile on turf for 3-year-olds, winning with Heaven Street (Street Sense). Bred by Siena Farms, Heaven Street was a $275,000 RNA at Keeneland September. He's now campaigned by Siena and Asmussenequine.com and entered the Columbia a winner of two of six starts, both wins, however, on turf.

Heaven Street won the Columbia by a length, defeating horses trained by such as McGaughey, Rusty Arnold, Jonathan Thomas, Arnaud Delacour, and Brian Lynch, among others.

Street Sense stands for $75,000 at Darley and has been on a tear the last few years. His Azure Coast won the G3 UAE 2000 Guineas last month. One of Street Sense's best is Grade l winner Maxfield, who was produced from a Bernardini mare. Speaker's Corner, who won the Gll Gulfstream Park Mile S. the weekend before, is also from a Bernardini mare, and this larger cross of Street Sense/A.P. Indy is at work with Heaven Street, who is from a mare by Congrats, a son of A.P. Indy like Bernardini.

Heaven Street's dam Heavenly View is a half-sister to four black-type winners, including Mr Freeze (To Honor and Serve), a millionaire Grade ll winner who was also second in the Gl Pegasus World Cup, and she's also a half-sister to the Bernardini mare Zayanna–dam of Grade l winner Wicked Whisper (Liam's Map) and Grade ll winner and Grade l-placed Point of Honor (Curlin). This is a strong and productive black-type family and it's not surprising that Heaven Street was offered for sale on day one at Keeneland.

Classic Causeway

The Brian Lynch-trained Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won the $350,000 Gll Tampa Bay Derby at a mile and a sixteenth as the favorite, duplicating his effort from last month's Glll Sam F. Davis at the same distance at Tampa Bay. In both races, Classic Causeway, a homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper, broke like a shot and won wire-to-wire, and he's done everything that's been asked of him but nevertheless gets the Rodney Dangerfield treatment. He now sports a record of three wins from five starts, but the 84 Beyer Speed Figure that he earned in the Tampa Bay Derby–he'd run an 88 in the Sam F. Davis–has led to speculation that he may not be good enough to win the Gl Kentucky Derby.

Part of this comes from the competition he's beaten. Classic Causeway defeated 38-1 shot Grantham (Declaration of War) by 2 1/2 lengths in the Tampa Bay Derby, but Grantham's previous high Beyer was a 71, though he'd finished fourth in the Glll Withers with a 68 Beyer. Shipsational (Midshipman), a New York-bred, was third in the race and had run an 83 in the Sam F. Davis when second to Classic Causeway.

Perhaps more telling was the performance of the Graham Motion-trained Belgrade (Hard Spun) in seventh, beaten about six-plus lengths by Classic Causeway. Belgrade had debuted in a six-furlong maiden special restricted to horses sold at auction for $45,000 or less at Fair Grounds in December and won by six lengths with a 79 Beyer, and off that race he'd been sold for an astonishing $700,000 at Keeneland January. The runner-up in that Fair Grounds race, Tee Burns (Klimt), finished eighth of nine in a $50,000 maiden claimer at Fair Grounds last month at 10-1.

Belgrade reappeared at Tampa last month for Motion to win a seven-furlong optional claimer by a head from a local horse with a 72 Beyer, and he probably ran an even better race in the Tampa Bay Derby, suggesting that Classic Causeway's figure is probably legitimate.

Speed figures aside, Classic Causeway is one of three winners from Giant's Causeway's last crop of three foals. One of the others is Giant Game, who was third in the Gl Breeders' Cup Juvenile but eighth in the Tampa Bay Derby, and the other is Monaadah, who won his debut at Meydan two weeks ago.

Giant's Causeway, who died in 2018, has sired 195 black-type winners, many of them from mares with some of the best pedigrees in the world. That's not the case with Classic Causeway, whose stakes-winning Thunder Gulch dam Private World was the only black-type winner under the first three dams of the pedigree until Classic Causeway arrived.

Private World won two stakes races at two, the Listed Anoakia S. at Oak Tree at six furlongs and the Moccasin S. at Hollywood Park at seven furlongs. She either led or prompted the pace in both races and her son obviously gets some of his speedy tendencies from her.

Giant's Causeway, however, can provide the stamina required for Classic Causeway to keep progressing up the distance ladder, and so far, all Classic Causeway does is win, which is hard not to like.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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