Claiborne Farm | Horse Racing Free Tips

First Mare In foal To Claiborne’s GISW Annapolis

Claiborne Farm Feb. 29 reported the first mare has checked in foal to Annapolis (War Front), the operation said in a release Thursday.

The 5-year-old was bred to St Claude (Tiznow), who is owned by Pete and Martha Williams and is boarded at Nicky Drion Thoroughbreds. She is from the family of Horse of the Year Flightline and tallied her first registered colt Jan. 12 by Army Mule.

A graded stakes winner at 2 and 3 as a homebred for Bass Racing under trainer Todd Pletcher, Annapolis set a new stakes record in the GI Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland.

Annapolis's dam, My Miss Sophia (Unbridled's Song), was a graded stakes winner on dirt and runner-up in the GI Kentucky Oaks. The Claiborne sire also includes 'TDN Rising Star' GI Florida Derby hero Materiality (Afleet Alex), GI Alabama S. victress Embellish the Lace (Super Saver) and GI Travers S. victor Afleet Express (Afleet Alex).

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‘Succession’: A New TDN Series – Walker Hancock of Claiborne

In our walk of life, nothing succeeds like succession.

As with any other form of agriculture, a horse farm is not just a business but a legacy sometimes shaped by several generations of rain-or-shine toil and kitchen-table lore. The balance sheet may happen to be in the black, or in the red–but that's just a moment in time. How does one put a price on the decades of patient nurture that have gone into land and bloodlines?

Yet there's never any guarantee about the next generation, whether in terms of its enthusiasm or eligibility. And, even if both those are present, there are bound to be sensitivities over the timing and structuring of transition. In this new, occasional series, TDN will visit with people who have experienced such challenges: whether those who hand over a life's work, or those charged with taking it forward; sometimes, we'll hear from both.

No better place to start than with Walker Hancock, whose accession as president at storied Claiborne Farm at just 25 was, in this context, just about as conspicuous a transfer of responsibility as you'll ever see. Incredible as it must seem, both to Walker himself and to those originally startled by his precocious promotion, this year he will already complete his first decade at the helm. His father Seth has been duly rewarded for that bold vote of confidence, then, the farm now being in hands still full of youthful vigor and ambition, while far more seasoned than could generally be expected in one of Walker's age.

To a degree, of course, the gamble was emboldened by the fact that Seth had been even younger when himself appointed president. At the same time, whatever the similarities, the single factor that most sets their respective situations apart could not be more crucial. For Seth was only elevated so giddily because of the abrupt and premature death of his own father, “Bull” Hancock, such a towering figure in the Bluegrass that people far beyond Claiborne felt that they, too, had in some measure suddenly lost a patriarchal influence. (There was also the incidental drama of Seth's older brother, Arthur, quitting to achieve his own, epic vindication down the road at Stone Farm–and we'll be calling on Arthur and his daughter Lynn later in this series.)

So while Seth had to find his feet in the throes of bereavement, not to mention fireworks between his brother and the powerful advisers presiding over the transition, Walker remains blessed to be able to turn to his father for counsel.

“Dad had a trial by fire, literally had to figure it out on his own,” he says. “So after he gave me the reins, it was comforting to know that he's still in the background, and that I can always run things by him. I can say, 'Well, I'm not quite sure what to do here,' or 'I can't figure out a mating for this mare, what do you think?' So that's been a luxury for me. He never had that. It definitely takes a little pressure off, makes things a little more comforting, at least when you start out.”

That said, just about the first thing Seth was able to do was syndicate a horse called Secretariat.

“So he got things figured out pretty quickly,” Walker says with a smile. “Because he had to! I certainly didn't make that kind of a splash. But maybe one day…”

The common denominator in all these situations is how a relationship based on parental authority, through years of upbringing, can evolve so that a son or daughter, if only in a professional dimension, has the confidence to say: “Sorry sir, sorry ma'am–but I'm the boss now.”

The Hancock Family at Keeneland | Keeneland Photo

“We've always got along for the most part, but like anybody, we're going to disagree on some things,” Walker says. “Thankfully, they've been few and far between. When you work with your father, you're younger and sometimes you'll see things differently, which is fine. But I give him credit: especially in the last few years, he's really kind of said, 'You're in charge. If that's what you want to do, go ahead.'”

Walker suspects that his father had taken note of equivalent handovers faltering precisely because of inflexibility in the older generation. And that's certainly a delicate challenge, whenever a filial relationship extends into business. As from any parent, growing up you receive instruction and discipline–but suddenly they have to back off and leave you, if necessary, to learn by mistakes.

“I think it was hard for me to understand that, at first,” Walker says. “It was like, 'All right, whatever he says, I'm going to do.' Because that's what I've done my whole life. But then there comes a time where you have to say to yourself, 'Well, you're in charge now. You're going to have to stand up to him at some point, if you feel something isn't going right.' But it feels very successful, because we have still managed to maintain that father-son relationship.”

There were bumps on the road, for sure: the little test cases. It sounds as though the opening of a visitor center at Claiborne may have been a case in point.

“It was kind of a big deal for us, in terms of commercializing a brand that has always been pretty close-knit,” Walker acknowledges. “I just felt like that was really what we needed to do at the time, and my sister [Allison] and I had a plan to make it happen. But whenever Dad and I have gotten a little sideways with one another, at the end of the day I think he can appreciate that I'm just trying to do the best I can, and move the farm forward, and that sometimes it might be a little more progressive or at least different from the way he'd do it.”

And, in fairness, Walker stresses that his father always showed due sensitivity to the unique pressures of succession–right back to when he was a kid. It was made perfectly clear that Walker and Allison could chart their own course in life, according to whatever preferences evolved as they grew up. Allison, indeed, never made quite the same connection with horses, albeit remains part of the family operation, heading up the visitor center and merchandising.

“Again, I give credit to my dad: he let me find my way,” Walker says. “At an early age he told me, 'If this is something you don't want to do, don't feel any pressure. You don't have to do this. We can sell the farm, whatever. Because if you don't have a passion, there's no sense doing it. If you don't really, truly love it, you're not going to be successful.' And actually because he didn't pressure me, I think that's one of the reasons I gravitated towards it. If he'd been waking me up at five every morning, saying, 'Get to that barn, you got to clean stalls!' I probably would have resented that, or maybe got burned out.”

As it was, Walker was able gradually to absorb the enchantment of the Thoroughbred from the environment in which he was growing up.

“At the farm, I started at the bottom,” he recalls. “Weeding double fence rows, whatever. At the time we still did a lot of hay and straw, put it in the barns for a couple of summers. I really did work my way up and can now really appreciate the hard work that so many people have to put in. And at least they all know that I did it at one point, as well, so it's like, 'Well, if he did it, I can do it.'”

By high school, Walker had recognized that he was not going to make a baseball professional–the single menace he ever admitted to his Claiborne destiny. But even once his heart was set on the family business, his parents made sure he went away to college so that he could encounter people from other walks of life, and sample the kind of Main Street existence he'd be turning down. So he went to the University of Florida, majoring in Animal Sciences.

“The idea was that I needed to go away, do something else for four years and figure life out for myself,” Walker explains. “And honestly it was the best thing I ever did. I was able to grow up, make new friends and connections, learn how to deal with uncomfortable positions. You can get stuck in this bubble here in Central Kentucky: you're so used to horses being a part of your life, going to Keeneland in the fall and the spring. And now here were all these people that, if they'd heard of the Kentucky Derby, wanted to know why a horse couldn't run in it twice! So it was really good to be exposed to a different culture.”

So while ever grateful for being raised at Claiborne, Walker could become his own person and develop his own perspectives. In the same way, since taking over, he has had to put his own stamp on things while on keeping aboard clients whose own families have a generational relationship with the farm. There literally came a day, for instance, when “Mr. Phipps” told him: “Walker, you need to call me Dinny now!”

“It's just another part of the transition,” Walker says with a shrug. “You're no longer the little kid they saw at the races. You develop more of a client relationship. That was definitely challenging. Thankfully, we have a lot of outstanding clients that have been with us for a long time. But at some point we need to start bringing in some younger people, too–and that's another challenge, finding the right kind of people to keep the farm special while also moving forward.”

Bernie Sams and Walker Hancock | Fasig-Tipton Photo

Walker feels blessed, in embracing these challenges, by a priceless rapport with Bernie Sams, whose official title as Stallion Seasons and Bloodstock Manager is barely adequate for the deep knowledge and down-to-earth style that guaranteed continuity to all parties: Seth, Walker, the clientele.

“He's been unbelievable, awesome,” Walker says. “We've traveled the world together. He's taught me so much and pretty much been a mentor to me. It certainly gave me a little more confidence to have someone like Bernie around, that's been with Claiborne for 20-plus years and understands so well what we do.”

He feels similarly indebted to farm manager Bradley Purcell, and also to his aunt, Dell Hancock.

“Aunt Dell has also been a tremendous supporter of mine throughout the transition process,” Walker stresses. “She's always there to cheer me up after a bad result in the sales ring or racetrack. Her positivity has helped me persevere through some low times, and I can always count on her to lift me back up and find the bright side of every scenario.

“As for Bradley, he's so professional and level-headed that I couldn't do the job without him. I never have to worry about the day-to-day operations, thanks to his knowledge of horses and understanding of the Claiborne brand. I can be away from the farm and know that everything will continue to run smoothly, which is very comforting.”

But if some faces and practices stay the same, in other ways even a farm as symbolic as Claiborne must adapt to a changing market. It was striking, for instance, that as many as 171 mares were granted a date with rookie Silver State in 2022. Following the defeat of the proposed 140-mare cap, farms like this one must decide where to strike a balance: should they protect their clients from the inundation of catalogues, the clear risk at more industrial operations? Or should they seek the accountancy advantages of a bigger book, whether in writing a check for a stallion or hiring him out at a milder fee?

“Ideally, we'd only breed our stallions to 120 to 140 mares,” Walker says. “But if a bigger book is how we stay competitive in the marketplace, then that's what we'll have to do. It's right by the horse, because you have to give them a chance to succeed. It's right by the clients that support him, and the syndicate members that own shares. I mean, it's probably not what we want. But the market's changing, and while I wish we could be stubborn and stick to our old ways, we'd get left behind.

“And I feel like we've found a good balance. We're never going to do over 200, or anything like that, but we probably have to beef our numbers up from what we were doing at 120, 130. It's hard to syndicate a horse if the shareholders know that money will be left on the table because you're not breeding as many mares as they'd get investing in another stallion. So, yeah, it's a changing environment and a difficult one. But I'm sure people had a fit when stallions went from 40 mares to 60, and again when they went to 100. The reality is that we have to keep up, or get left behind.”

Walker has not enjoyed missing out on potential new stars for the roster because rival offers were predicated on huge books of mares.

“You get beat so many times,” he says. “And it's like, 'Well, do we just keep doing this in the expectation of a different result?' But that's just not going to happen. So you're better off figuring out ways to change things up a little bit and stay competitive. In today's world it's hard to maintain your traditions and your values, with the market forcing your hand. But I do feel like there's a balance and hopefully we have found it.”

As things stand, the roster is headed by a venerable stallion in the sunset of his career, War Front. But Walker and his team are certainly sticking to their principles with their younger guns: they have gone back to the Danzig mine for Silver State, for instance, besides two of War Front's own sons, War of Will and now Annapolis. The unusual versatility of War of Will on the racetrack, meanwhile, is underpinned by the kind of deep pedigree that has always been a Claiborne hallmark. In other words, even as Demarchelier (GB) opens lines the other way, this is still a farm that can transcend the Atlantic divide.

War Front | Sarah Andrew

“We have a lot of unproven young stallions right now,” Walker says. “We're out there to find the next War Front, a horse that can keep carrying the water for us. Again, it's about trying to find a balance. Because it also makes things difficult that people want to sell these horses right after they win their first Grade I. To me, in the long run, that's a losing proposition.”

So some old principles will stand. Claiborne will continue to seek wholesome genetic models for replication. But the farm will continue to adapt, too. After all, that's just what Bull Hancock did in his day.

“And I'm sure dad did things differently than my grandfather, likewise,” Walker remarks. “When my grandfather died, it was in his will that we had to sell everything. Well, after 10 or 12 years my dad felt, 'You know what? This isn't the way we need to do things.' And Swale came out of the first crop where he kept horses.

“It would be awesome if we could just run Claiborne the same way as we did in 1948. But the fact is that the industry has changed, even in the last five years; sometimes it feels like it changes almost from year to year. And you have to be willing to respond. For the old timers, I think they'd say the industry has gone too far by them. Dad is probably glad that I'm in charge now.

“I'm a fifth-generation horseman, fourth generation to run the farm. You don't want to let any of your forefathers, grandfathers, fathers down by dropping the ball. So you definitely feel that pressure. Keeping places like this going, through families, is not easy. Hopefully my kids are interested, and their kids too. But with the times changing so rapidly, who knows what the future looks like? All we can do is live in the present, and try to do our best.”

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Annapolis Retired to Claiborne Farm for 2024

'TDN Rising Star' Annapolis (War Front–My Miss Sophia, by Unbridled's Song), winner of the 2022 GI Coolmore Turf Mile S. in a stakes-record time of 1:33.29 at Keeneland, has been retired from racing and will enter stud at Claiborne Farm in Paris, Ky., for the 2024 breeding season.

A graded stakes winner at two and three in the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, Annapolis earned over $1.5 million as a homebred for Bass Racing. Annapolis was produced by My Miss Sophia, winner of the GII Gazelle S. and runner-up in the GI Kentucky Oaks. Carrying Annapolis, My Miss Sophia brought $4 million from agent Steve Young on behalf of the Bass family at the 2018 Keeneland November Sale.

“Annapolis has been a star since the day he was born,” said Claiborne Farm President Walker Hancock. “Being a $4 million in utero purchase, the bar was high and he lived up to his lofty expectations. He was a graded stakes winner at two, a record-setting Grade I winner at three, and hails from an incredible dirt family.”

Hancock continued, “His dam was a graded stakes winner on dirt and was runner up in the Kentucky Oaks. Also in the family are Florida Derby winner Materiality, Alabama winner Embellish the Lace, and Travers winner Afleet Express. With his imposing physique, we believe his offspring will be a success in the sales ring and on the racetrack.”

Annapolis, winner of the 2021 GII Pilgrim S. and 2022 GIII Saranac S., will stand for a fee of $12,500 LFSN.

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Value Sires for 2024, Part 5: The 20-Somethings

Today we reach quite a crossroads in the market, between $20,000 and $29,999. It takes a degree of affluence to roll the dice at this level, but you'd do so hoping to reach blood of genuine elite potential.

As usual, we've sieved out the new sires, having given them a separate treatment at the outset. Instructively, however, it's a tier dominated by stallions still in the early stages of their careers. And there is an auspicious flux here. One or two, if building on a promising start on the track, could conceivably prove to be on their way to stardom.

Inevitably, there are also plenty of sires only trading at this kind of fee because they have not yet been exposed on the track. The reality is that few of these will ultimately hold out. And while we've cheerfully highlighted value about a couple of sires at a similarly untested stage, earlier in this series, that's harder to do at this money.

But what these horses do generally have behind them, having started with the sort of profile that merits a strong opening fee, is numbers.

Handsome as he is, for instance, and fast as he ran, it seemed staggering that YAUPON should have covered as many as 242 mares for his debut in 2022, behind only Gun Runner. But next time round, we saw another farm go to a dizzier level yet, allowing rookie turf sprinter GOLDEN PAL to entertain no fewer than 293.

Yauppon | Sarah Andrew

Now we all understand how this model works and breeders embrace it with open eyes. Some will hit a home run, but they're going to have to stand out from a crowd. You all know what the stakes are, and whether it can work in your program, and you don't need me preaching one way or the other. For the record, Yaupon duly processed 36 of 40 weanlings at an average $130,888/median $100,000.

He had to settle for 202 mares last time, some of his 2022 supporters having doubtless flitted straight to Golden Pal; but others yet will have switched to his new studmate CYBERKNIFE, who mustered 223. Gun Runner has risen so fast that more affordable sons are finding themselves quickly in the game, and this was one of his breakout stars who beat a 37-year track record in the GI Haskell S.

The sophomore frustrations of CORNICHE cannot have helped his cause, so a book of 180 pays tribute to the brilliance of his championship campaign. As much as the way he dominated the crop as a juvenile, the pinhookers will be dwelling on his $1.5-million breeze as a 2-year-old (and 98 Beyer on debut). Some arcane names seed his family, but the genes were all functioning in his dam, six-time graded stakes scorer Wasted Tears (Najran).

Standing on a couple of farms that know how to keep a young stallion in the game, Golden Pal, Yaupon, Cyberknife and Corniche all take a trim in 2024 from $30,000 to $25,000.

The industrial approach is long familiar at Spendthrift and Ashford, but Juddmonte also played a candidly commercial game with MANDALOUN, who opened with as many as 211 partners. So he has certainly been given every chance of riding the luck he enjoyed when promoted from second for both his Grade Is. He actually paid somewhat for that rather freakish fortune, in that it distracted people from his inherent merit. Meanwhile he's another taking a clip, in his case from $25,000 to $20,000.

These horses are slipstreaming a handful on the brink of launching their first runners. One who excelled at the sales was WAR OF WILL, whose $117,202 average (for 61 of 77 sold) placed him third in the debutants' table (sales up to $650,000, $85,000 median). He duly retains his opening fee at $25,000. War of Will appeals as a stallion for our times, as a Grade I scorer on both dirt and turf, but the clincher is a Niarchos family saturated with quality. A full subscription of 143 mares in his debut book has predictably tapered a little since (112 and 84), but the enthusiasm of the market is a huge plus for a horse who must contend with its crass reservations about anything–even a Preakness winner!–bearing a taint of turf.

Two others from his intake not only started out with very similar books (157 and 159), but achieved an identical median of $53,500 with their first yearlings. That was better news for GAME WINNER than TIZ THE LAW, in that they opened at $30,000 and $40,000, respectively. Their averages were very similar too: the former sold 66 of 84 at $95,772, just behind the latter with 64 sold of 70 at $99,835. They remain in step now, both down to $20,000 for 2024.

It was Tiz the Law who rallied in his second book, to 218 mares against 131 for Game Winner, and maintained an advantage of 131 against 96 last spring. He collected a series of stallion-making Grade Is–Champagne/Florida Derby/Belmont/ Travers–and might well have added the Derby if only it had been run at the normal date in 2020. That makes him look a lot of horse at this money.

As for Game Winner, he obviously offers commercial precocity as an unbeaten champion juvenile, and very few of the crop managed to close the gap on him at three.

Maximus Mischief | Louise Reinagel

How those behind this trio would love to see them emulate MAXIMUS MISCHIEF, VINO ROSSO and FLAMEAWAY, who have all just completed their freshman season in a way that has earned an elevation in fee for 2024.

Spendthrift buddies Maximus Mischief and Vino Rosso contested second in the first-season sires' table all the way to the wire. The former–repeatedly advised as a commercial no-brainer at $7,500–is hiked to $25,000 and Vino Rosso, having been kept in the game in familiar fashion by halving to $15,000 from an opening $30,000, now inches back up to $20,000.

Inevitably their farm has succeeded in maintaining volume behind both horses. In their fourth books, Vino Rosso covered 171 mares and Maximus Mischief 159. Pretty impressive, given how many of their original supporters must have been the type that annually jumps from one new sire to the next.

Vino Rosso, having himself thrived with maturity, has surprised people with the precocity of some stock, but then you're going to get many different flavors with no fewer than 155 named foals in your debut crop! His 23 winners actually represent an unremarkable percentage, then, but where Vino Rosso does deserve credit is in mustering four to make the frame at Grade I level. Overall this has been an unproductive class, in graded stakes terms, but at least Vino Rosso has been coming up with the right caliber.

Maximus Mischief has mustered a solitary graded stakes placing, though of course he was dealing with relatively modest materials when starting at a quarter of Vino Rosso's opening fee. This is a big moment for him, in that he needs to capitalize on his platform of 31 winners with an upgrade in mares at his new fee. (Predictably enough, he has already launched the highest percentage of named foals among all the freshman sires, at just about two-in-three). His yearling average held up well, with 57 of 67 sold at a $38,000 median (average $47,312) compared with $40,000 (average $57,019, as much as anyone could have asked off a $7,500 conception) for 77 sold last year.

Vino Rosso's 75 sales from 98 yearlings offered from his second crop achieved a $45,000 median ($55,558 average), down from $61,000 ($94,287 average) for 112 sold on debut. But his own template (and that of his own sire Curlin) is encouraging for his stock to keep progressing now, and interestingly both Vino Rosso and Maximus Mischief moved their weanling prices back up compared with 2022.

Hats off to Flameaway, meanwhile, for getting closest to breaking up the Spendthrift freshman monopoly. None of the quartet above him can match his four stakes winners, while he joins only champion Mitole and Solomini in relieving the overall embarrassment of the class in at least managing one graded stakes scorer.

It must be said that he had decent numbers behind him, with 109 named foals, but by the same token the pipeline will be maintained by three-figure books annually since. Like Maximus Mischief, he needs to seize the moment after making precisely the same leap in fee, to $25,000 from $7,500. His second crop of yearlings didn't really reflect the fine start made by their predecessors, 41 of 54 changing hands at an unchanged median of $30,000 (average $44,950, down from $49,340). But there should be plenty of action to come from such a versatile horse, who won at various trips on three different surfaces. Auspiciously, his flagship Dreamfyre divided her two graded stakes wins between six furlongs of dirt and a mile of turf. Flameaway's third dam is a true matriarch in Europe and he offers all the flexibility we should be seeking in a changing landscape.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: BLAME
(Arch–Liable, by Seeking the Gold)
Claiborne, $25,000

How many of the aspiring youngsters who dominate this tier will end up achieving anything like as much as Blame? Entering his 13th season at stud, he has settled into the middle of this bracket as by far its most established operator. In fact, he's become a rather unique horse at this level. Everyone else is passing through, in one direction or the other. Blame is the only one trading at this kind of money where you know definitively where you stand. Others could yet turn out to have flattered to deceive, whereas he has found a fairly uncontested place among proven sires, between the blue-collar strivers and the unaffordable elite.

He's actually had a modest year by his standards, with only three stakes winners, albeit these did include a sixth Grade I scorer in Wet Paint. But his lifetime rations are extremely solid: 6.5% stakes winners from named foals, 3% at graded stakes level. His ratios are a match for the likes of Munnings, Street Sense and Twirling Candy, to name just three sires too good to be embarrassed by the comparison. And the big news with him over the past couple of years is his precocious emergence as a broodmare sire.

His breakout moment in this role was the GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland in 2022, aptly sponsored by Claiborne, when the pair that dueled clear of a strong field–champion Forte (Violence) and the luckless Loggins (Ghostzapper)–were both out of Blame mares. This is hardly a surprising development in a stallion whose third dam is none other than Special (Forli {Arg}). So for many programs–one that would like to keep a filly, for instance, or just to prove a young mare–Blame will offer better value than most horses in higher tiers. For the record, the niche he has carved out for himself could be measured in 2023 by a book of 129 mares, plus a yearling average of $94,442 (up from $82,075)–both really solid for a horse at this level of the market, at this stage of his career.

Oscar Performance | Sarah Andrew

Silver: OSCAR PERFORMANCE
(Kitten's Joy–Devine Actress, by Theatrical {Ire})
Mill Ridge, $25,000

Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

Here's a horse that faced only one problem when retiring to stud, but one as significant as it was tiresome: the notorious myopia of the domestic market regarding even high-class grass stallions. We all know how brutally difficult it is to stand a turf horse in the Bluegrass. Even English Channel and Kitten's Joy never quite cracked ringside prejudice sufficiently to obtain adequate reward for their outstanding records. But the consecutive loss of both those horses, even as he started out, nonetheless represented a big opportunity for Oscar Performance. And while it's still early days, he's making a strong case to step up as heir to his sire.

Oscar Performance covered 160 mares last spring, much his biggest book in his fifth season at stud. He had covered just 63 the previous year, but started out with a couple of three-figure books, so there will be plenty of talent coming through–especially when you recall how he kept thriving as a runner–to keep his name in lights, pending the arrival of the better stock he should be producing now.

And here's something else he did this year, that would be no less exceptional in a commercial dirt stallion. Offering his third crop of yearlings, he achieved an average of $79,959 (23 sold from 30; admittedly a $35,000 median was more in line with the $15,000 conception fee) up from $57,474 ($32,500) for his second; and $43,149 ($26,000) for his first. In other words, he's reversing the usual trend: his stock is gaining in value by the year.

Why is this happening? Well, as we said, it's still early in the piece. None of his stock is yet at the same age as Oscar Performance when he won his fourth Grade I in the Woodbine Mile. But he's now had two crops to borrow the precocity he also required to win the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, and they have together produced eight graded stakes horses at a ratio (5% of named foals) exceeded, in what looks a very strong intake, only by Justify; and matched only by Bolt d'Oro.

Interestingly his principal earner to date is Red Carpet Ready, whose two graded stakes wins actually came on the main track–on which surface he's also had Tumbarumba win the Ellis Park Derby and Deer District win a Churchill allowance by 10 lengths before placing in the GII Amsterdam S. So second and third dams by Mr. Prospector and Slew o' Gold are obviously having a say while, purely in terms of quality, his own mother has also produced two additional graded stakes-winning siblings.

His second crop has produced dual graded stakes scorer Endlessly, who looks aptly named for how far his sire may advance from here. After returning to his opening fee of $20,000 last year, back up from $12,500, Oscar Performance has now edged up to $25,000. If he can keep building from here, he may reach a much higher level as breeders belatedly service an expanding turf program.

Gold: ARMY MULE
(Friesan Fire–Crafty Toast, by Crafty Prospector)
Hill 'n' Dale, $25,000

This was a racetrack meteor–brief but bright–and now we're immediately seeing persuasive evidence that he may be replicating the freakish talent that we only glimpsed. It's not the most conventional profile, nor pedigree, but the functionality cannot be in question. If Army Mule carries on the way he has started, enough people are going to accept that reality for him to break into the elite. If so, doubling his fee from $12,500 last year is only going to be a start.

Remember he had to muscle his way into an exceptionally strong class of freshmen. Justify is soaring to stardom, either side of the water, and Good Magic came up with a Derby winner at the first attempt. In his first two crops, sired at $10,000 and $7,500, Army Mule produced only 138 named foals. Of the five above him in the cumulative earnings table, Mendelssohn has 323; Justify 309; Bolt d'Oro 238; Good Magic 226; City of Light 191. So guess what, some (but only some) of those have more stakes winners. But in what ratios?

Start with his individual winners: 68 from 108 starters, 49% of named foals. Justify is getting his at 28%; Good Magic 38%; Bolt d'Oro 39%; Mendelssohn 36%; City of Light 30%.

Of these, 10 have won at black-type level: 7.3% of named foals. Justify is operating at 6.5%; Good Magic matches Army Mule at 7.5%; Bolt d'Oro is on 4.2%; and Mendelssohn 1.9%; City of Light 3.7%. In terms of stakes performers overall, Army Mule's 11.6% is only matched in the class by Bolt d'Oro.

Understandably, given the relative caliber of mares they will have received, Army Mule can't quite see that performance through at graded stakes level. He only has two such winners, among five placed. Moreover his farm was not even able to promote his Grade I breakout with One In Vermillion, the Allen Jerkens S. having fallen into his lap in ghastly circumstances. But someone needs to say that One In Vermillion has proved a legitimate graded stakes performer as a $26,000 yearling from the Arizona TBA Fall Mixed Sale. Army Mule also has Danse Macabre, an $11,000 short yearling, close to millionaire status after winning five of her first 10. (Incidentally, another nod to our bronze medalist here: she's out of a Blame mare.)

His debut crop had already done enough by last spring for Army Mule to entertain 199 mares in his fifth season at stud, up from 115 in 2022 and 83 the previous year. His 2024 sophomores emerge from a crop of just 37 live foals, so he may have to tread water briefly. But surely Army Mule is one of those rare stallions who do enough, early enough, to lock in the medium-term momentum required. Sure enough, he sold 28 (from 38) of his latest crop of yearlings for a median $67,500 and average $96,650, up from $51,000 and $69,272: stellar returns for those who kept the faith for a $7,500 conception.

As a rule, I prefer a horse that has left no doubt as to his resilience and Army Mule's entire career comprised barely four minutes. But the talent that made him a six-length Grade I winner (114 Beyer) in that time was already luminous when he turned himself from $35,000 yearling to $825,000 2-year-old. This farm has a great record with these flashbulb talents, and there's a rapidly rising tide to catch with Army Mule.

The breeders have their say…

We asked breeders to weigh in on who their top picks were.

Carrie Brogden of Machmer Hall

GOLD: Army Mule
Gold would have to be Army Mule. He has had so much success from such modest mares that you have to pay attention. If he can simply maintain what he has done so far until the big gun crops come down the pipeline, he has the potential to be a breakout stallion. For example, we sold the dam of Grade I winner One In a Vermillion carrying him in utero for a paltry $4,500, bred on our share that I am probably going to completely regret selling earlier this year. He seems to offer speed, soundness, heart and his good looks.

Vino Rosso | Sarah Andrew

SILVER: Vino Rosso
(Curlin–Mythical Bride, by Street Cry {Ire})
Spendthrift Farm, $20,000
Silver for me would have to be Vino Rosso. We have booked three mares to him based on what he did with his first crop of 2-year-olds. Considering his own race record and breeding, I would expect that they will excel with added distance. He seems to throw a particular type and I know that he is booked full for 2024, so clearly I am not the only one who sees his future potential. When I was at the Keeneland September sale this year, we had a nice colt out of Queenie's Pride (Special Rate) and the positive feedback I got from trainers and 2-year-old consignors was surprising to me since it was so early in the year for a son of Curlin that won the GI Breeders' Cup Classic as a 4-year-old. Speaking of Curlin, what an emerging superstar sire of sires he is! That coupled with Spendthrift's eye-popping accomplishment of a stallion farm leading home all top four freshman sires for 2023 in North America, the future looks very bright!

BRONZE:
TIZ THE LAW
(Constitution–Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
Coolmore, $20,000

GAME WINNER
(Candy Ride {Arg}–Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy)
Lane's End Farm, $20,000

Bronze would be a tie between Tiz the Law and Game Winner. Talk about racehorses! Tiz the Law won FOUR Grade Is as a 2-year-old and 3-year-old! He is by a rising top-tier stallion in Constitution and the reception and physical attributes of his babies reminded me of the early crops of Constitution.

Game Winner, a 2-year-old champion, won THREE Grade Is as a 2-year-old and is by the incredible sire of sires Candy Ride. With the ones we had at Machmer Hall and that I saw at the sales, I personally felt that there was a lot of Candy Ride in them. I was the underbidder on two really nice weanlings by him and am still having non-buyer's remorse there. No crystal balls of course, as I am constantly reminded of playing Geoffery Russell's freshman sire contest every year, but both of these young stallions have the race record and stock to step into the very big shoes of both of their fathers.

John Greathouse of Glencrest Farm

GOLD: Blame
Blame was a gutsy racehorse and I think that's what he gets you. He's sired six Grade I winners and has been consistent year after year at the sales and at the races. He produces solid individuals that are sound and can go two turns. Blame is also starting to prove to be an excellent broodmare sire. Forte and Wet Paint are prime examples of that. If you are looking to start a young mare, there aren't many horses you can pick from that stand for less than 30k and are as proven as Blame.

Blame | Claiborne Farm

SILVER: Vino Rosso
Vino Rosso is great value at 20k. He's third on the first-crop sire list, but I think he's far ahead of where most people expected him to be at this point. He was a horse that was better going two turns and I expected his progeny would be the same. His offspring are smooth and athletic. He comes from a serious family of runners. If his progeny improve going longer, we could be talking about him like we were talking about Good Magic in 2023. There is real upside at 20k.

BRONZE: Maximus Mischief
(Into Mischief–Reina Maria, by Songandaprayer)
Spendthrift Farm, $25,000
Maximus Mischief was one of the fastest 2-year-old sons of Into Mischief, which is no easy feat. That precocity is showing up with his 2-year-olds. He's off to a terrific start with 30 winners and sits second on the first-crop sire rankings. He has bred a big book of mares every year, so I don't expect him to slow down anytime soon. I like that he gets a big, strong horse with plenty of bone which suits smaller mares. We have bred to him in the past and will continue to support him this year.

The post Value Sires for 2024, Part 5: The 20-Somethings appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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