Churchill Downs | Horse Racing Free Tips

Rising Star Holds Big Figure Edge in Iroquois

If he comes close to replicating his last two speed figures, it’s going to be pretty tough for anyone to best ‘TDN Rising Star‘ Therideofalifetime (Candy Ride {Arg}) in Churchill’s GIII Iroquois S.–which offers a “Win and You’re In” berth for the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Stephen Fidel homebred was second to Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music) going five panels here June 19 before breaking through by 8 1/4 lengths at Keeneland July 11, good for an 85 Beyer Speed Figure. He was most recently second to Jackie’s Warrior in the GII Saratoga Special S. Aug. 7, but the 81 Beyer he earned for that effort towers over his competition. Next-fastest on figures is the tough-to-read Dreamer’s Disease (Laoban). Hailing from the first crop of New York-based Laoban (Uncle Mo), the Southern Equine Stables homebred was a distant last after a rough journey sprinting at Ellis July 2. He switched to the turf and stretched out at the Pea Patch Aug. 8, and looked like a completely different horse, romping by four lengths, good for a 78 Beyer. Super Stock (Dialed In) and Pico d’Oro (Curlin) are the two who boast prior stakes wins. The former annexed the Texas Thoroughbred Futurity at Lone Star Aug. 11, while the latter–also bred by Southern Equine and eventually acquired for $255,000 at OBSMAR–broke his maiden with a strong pace set-up in the seven-furlong Runhappy Juvenile S. at Ellis Park Aug. 9. The remaining seven cast members all enter off maiden-breaking outings on the Ellis main track. One to have on the radar is Thomas Humphries-owned and trained Belafonte (Tonalist), who blew the break in his Aug. 2 unveiling in the slop but uncorked an impressive turn move to win going away at 49-1. The $20,000 FTKOCT bargain buy will sport blinkers for the first time.

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Plenty of Contenders in Pat Day Mile

One-turn mile graded races always attract intriguing fields, and Saturday’s GII Pat Day Mile S. for sophomores at Churchill is no exception. Favored on the morning line is the Coolmore contingent’s $3.65-million Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream buy Cezanne (Curlin). A debut winner sprinting at Santa Anita June 6, he added a first-level allowance tally going this distance (but around two turns) at Los Alamitos July 2. The Bob Baffert trainee didn’t necessarily win like his 1-9 odds that day suggested he might, however, and then could only manage fourth–albeit while earning a field’s-best 101 Beyer Speed Figure–behind stablemate Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile) and leading GI Kentucky Derby contender Honor A. P. (Honor Code) in the Aug. 1 Shared Belief S. With so much speed signed on to his outside, Cezanne will have to come out running and need some racing luck to work out a winning trip from the one hole.

No Parole (Violence) and Echo Town (Speighstown) have traded decisions in seven-furlong Grade I events this summer. No Parole ran away with the Woody Stephens S. Presented by Claiborne Farm on GI Belmont S. day June 20, besting Echo Town by 3 3/4 lengths. But Echo Town got the better of his foe when uncorking a powerful late rally in Saratoga’s H. Allen Jerkens S. Presented by Runhappy Aug. 1. No Parole faded to ninth that day.

Tap It to Win (Tapit), meanwhile, turned heads with a five-length allowance romp over a one-turn 8 1/2 panels at Belmont June 4. He wheeled back in sixteen days for the Belmont S., but couldn’t only manage fifth after setting the pace. He was second after a stalking trip in the Jerkens, and could find this distance a perfect fit.

Vertical Threat (Tapiture) scratched out of last Saturday’s GII Pat O’Brien S. at Del Mar for this, and gets tested for class after a 5 1/4-length score in the restricted Smiling Tiger S. July 25. Rushie (Liam’s Map) was third in both the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby and GII Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland going 1 1/8 miles. He broke his maiden at this distance, and his sire Liam’s Map took the 2015 GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile.

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Cali Invader Seeks Third ‘Strait’ in American Turf

Cannon Thoroughbreds homebred Smooth Like Strait (Midnight Lute) seeks his third consecutive victory as he returns to Churchill Downs for the $500,000 GII American Turf S. Saturday. A winner of last December’s GIII Cecil B. DeMille S. Dec. 1 at Del Mar, the bay returned to winning ways three starts later in the War Chant S. going a sixteenth shorter here May 23. He was last seen annexing the GIII La Jolla H. back in San Diego Aug. 9 over champion juvenile and GI Kentucky Derby entrant Storm the Court (Court Vision). The 8-5 morning line choice will have to avoid getting caught up in a hot pace. One of the likely other pace players is Fancy Liquor (Lookin At Lucky). Third in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks behind stablemate Field Pass (Lemon Drop Kid) on Turfway Poly off just a maiden win Mar. 14, the Mike Maker pupil was a close second in a course-and-distance allowance June 11. Third again by just a neck, and again behind Field Pass, in the GIII Transylvania S. at Keeneland July 12, he was ultra game when taking the Caesars S. at Indiana Downs a month later. Field Pass rallied from very far back when third in the War Chant, but took the local Audubon S. June 20 on the front end. He closed from off the pace to get up in the Transylvania, but was seventh after a rough start in the Saratoga Derby Invitational S. Aug. 15.

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Twinspires Triple Crown Throwdown: Kentucky Derby

Ed DeRosa of Brisnet.com takes on TDN’s Steve Sherack and Brian DiDonato as they handicap Triple Crown prep races plus the big three races themselves. The three will make $100 Win/Place bets in the preps and $200 Win/Place bets in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. Highest bankroll at the end wins.

DeRosa – Bankroll: $5480 – Pegasus Result – Skyscanner made no impact at a big price.

GI Kentucky Derby – Tiz the Law is my pick to win the GI Kentucky Derby. He is the most likely winner, and my wagers will go through him attempting to hook up other non favorites with him (i.e., I think other favorites are less likely to win their races than Tiz the Law is to win the Derby). But this is a win-place exercise, and Max Player gives us our best chance to catch Brian, as he might pay more to place than Tiz the Law would to win and place. Clockers have noted the work Steve Asmussen has put into Max Player since joining his barn, and as a colt who’s always run his race behind Tiz the Law, he feels more like a should-be third choice than the likely fifth choice. Selection: #2 Max Player (30-1).

Sherack – Bankroll: $4110 – Pegasus Result – Granted, the competition wasn’t much, but still nice to see Pneumatic run the kind of race I knew he was capable of.

GI Kentucky Derby – I’m not nearly as confident as I was a month ago prior to Tiz the Law’s jaw-dropping win in the GI Runhappy Travers S., but it’s still Honor A. P. for me. While the Shared Belief S. was obviously a disappointing result for the stunning dark bay, especially following his breakthrough win in the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, it was never going to be the right kind of spot for him cutting back in distance and facing only three rivals ahead of his main objective on the first Saturday in September. Can he improve off his visually impressive win in the Santa Anita Derby and take the necessary leap forward to take on Tiz the Law at 1 1/4 miles here? I’m betting that he does. Ny Traffic is my longshot for underneath. Selection: #16 Honor A. P. (5-1).

DiDonato – Bankroll: $5500 – Pegasus Result – Big City Bob didn’t do anything.

GI Kentucky Derby – Since I’ve got this huge $20 lead to protect, I’m going to chalk out and go with Tiz the Law. I just don’t see a knock on him–especially now that he’s proven over 10 panels and in fact ran his best race ever at that distance. Maybe he’s a bounce candidate, but he certainly wasn’t all out in Saratoga and his recent breezes have been super strong. He’s the tactical type who almost always works out a good trip and the post doesn’t bother me–good luck if you’re trying to beat him. I think Honor A. P. is by far the second most likely winner, but that’s not an interesting opinion either. Money Moves and Max Player are the price horses I’ll likely include underneath to try to spice things up. Selection: #17 Tiz the Law (3-5).

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