You've all done the donkey work. Maybe you've resigned yourself to the skinny prices about Zandon (Upstart) and Epicenter (Not This Time) and there's a good chance you've debated–internally or otherwise–whether Mike Battaglia got it right from the perspective of the morning line. Or, you argue, 'It's a 20-horse field, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell I am betting one of the favorites when there is value to be found elsewhere.'
Surely, you reason, there isn't much that separates the market leaders from horses like 'TDN Rising Star' Messier (Empire Maker), whose sire couldn't quite get to Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) here some 19 years ago. You contend that, despite his obvious lack of experience, Taiba (Gun Runner)–named a 'TDN Rising Star' as recently as Mar. 5–has as much or more or even much more talent than the 19 fellow sophomores that will gather at the top of the Churchill stretch just before 7 p.m. Eastern time Saturday.
You have likely marveled at the boundless energy displayed by Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}), just the second Japanese-bred horse to make a Derby appearance, and you have struggled trying to figure out how he fits into your betting strategy. Many will deem him a must-use for exotics, while others will take a stand based on a starting price that figures to be pretty short, a whole lot less than his 20-1 morning line in any case.
There is also the Florida form to be considered, represented by GI Curlin Florida Derby hero White Abarrio (Race Day) and Simplification (Not This Time), the second of two runners in the race for his boom sire and the idea of many of a very live longshot.
T.D. Thornton has done a yeoman's job over the last six months laying out his Derby pecking order–his final assessment can be reviewed here–and we strongly encourage you to use the TDN's Kentucky Derby Special Edition, with a great Steve Sherack cover story on Steve Asmussen's Derby quest, as a resource for Saturday's big race. But to lighten things up just a bit, here is a bit of Derby Day whimsy.
Letter (Im)perfect…
Zandon is joined in Saturday's field by fellow 'Z' horse 'TDN Rising Star' Zozos (Munnings), but they'll have to 'overcome' history, as no 'Z' horse since Zev in 1923 has been draped with the roses. Believe it or not, this isn't the first time a Derby has had more than one 'Z' horse, as Z Fortune and Z Humor were 10th and 14th, respectively, behind Big Brown in 2008. And if you're backing Simplification, 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy) or even Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front), take heart. Horses that begin with the 20th letter of the alphabet have won the Derby on 19 occasions, most recently with double 'S' Super Saver back in 2010.
Minnesota Front and Center on Derby Day…
The popularity of racing in Minnesota has continued to grow over the past several years, owing in large part to some forward-thinking execs at Canterbury Park who have increasingly focused on the customer experience. Those tuning into Saturday's broadcast from the 'Land of 10,000 Lakes' will have plenty of rooting interest, as Zozos is owned and bred by Minnesota's own Barry and Joni Butzow, while native son Jeff Drown campaigns morning-line pick Zandon. And Minnesotan Bob Lothenbach will be watching when Bell's the One (Majesticperfection) runs for the third straight season in the GI Derby City Distaff. She defeated 2019 GI Kentucky Oaks heroine Serengeti Empress (Alternation) in a thriller in the COVID-delayed renewal in September 2020.
O Canada…
Two-time graded winner and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier would become the third Kentucky Derby winner bred north of the border were he to get home first Saturday afternoon. The $470,000 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Showcase grad was bred by Sam-Son Farm in Ontario, also the birthplace of Sunny's Halo, who took down the 1983 Derby when total purse money was, wait for it, a whopping $250,000. E. P. Taylor's Northern Dancer is the third of the trio, having broken ground for Canada in 1964. Only one Canadian-bred has placed in the race since–eventual Triple Crown spoiler Victory Gallop was second in 1998.
Will It Be A Day for the Grays?…
The Derby has drawn a trio of gray colts for the third time in four years, with Florida Derby runner-up Charge It (Tapit) and Barber Road (Race Day) joining White Abarrio. Since 1930, grays in the Derby have a record of 8-3-10 from 112 starters. There were three gray winners between 1997 and 2005 (Silver Charm, Monarchos and Giacomo).
Five Thrives in Derby…
Since the use of the starting gate for the Derby began back in 1930, the post with the highest strike rate has been gate five (smile happy, Smile Happy), with 10 winners from 92 starters (10.9%). The second most prolific winning barrier is the 10 hole, with nine winners from 85 runners (10.6%). As has been widely noted, post position 17 has yet to toss up a Derby winner (apologies to any Classic Causeway fans out there) and just three horses to have started from there have run in the first three. Next worst is gate six, with two winners.
A Reason to Root for Rich Strike…
The unfortunate 11th-hour defection of the Wayne Lukas-trained Ethereal Road (Quality Road) means that Rich Strike (Keen Ice) draws into the Derby in gate 20. We don't need to point out that the handsome chestnut is hopelessly overmatched on paper, but it is not hard to be happy for trainer Eric Reed. About a week before Christmas in 2016, Reed and his wife Kay suffered an unspeakable loss when their Mercury Training Center went up in flames, with a reported 23 horses–mostly yearlings–perishing. But he has persevered–his runners won 80 races in 2021, his best result since 2014–and it does the heart good to see him on a stage such as this one.
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