Chris McGrath | Horse Racing Free Tips

This Side Up: Young Guns Seek Juvenile Momentum

You can’t really resent someone hoarding the ammunition, if he only needs it because he’s being forced to play Russian roulette.

That’s pretty much how things are for all those new, unproven stallions who corral such huge books of mares. Yes, I remain ever aggrieved on behalf of those quiet achievers who never get commercial traction, despite results that will almost invariably prove beyond their emerging rivals. But I do feel increasing sympathy for the young guns, because their margin for error is zero. They have to land running, or they can pack their bags.

Only rarely can a horse persuade the market to repent, like Daredevil. His export to Turkey last year, certainly, was a good deal more typical than his recent repatriation. After entertaining 376 mares across three seasons, he had found himself reduced to 21 as breeders moved on to the next parade of clean-cut cadets.

Such is the ruthlessly narrow window of opportunity. While allowances may be made for the two-turn type–whose clientele tend to be in less of a hurry and may even, glory be, include end-users–any of us can already look down the current freshmen’s table and speculate which may be first to Louisiana, and which to Korea.

The juvenile program at the Breeders’ Cup on Friday serves as a real “windsock” for those latest stallions trying to get airborne. Needless to say, we also have several established names defending their patriarchal status through the likes of Essential Quality (Tapit). But the annual distribution of the mare pool is such that the most precocious animals in any crop–typically out of more commercial dams–tend to represent the new blood.

Freshman sire Not This Time | Jon Siegel

Sure enough, Not This Time looks to seal his flying start with an unbeaten favorite, Princess Noor, in the GI Juvenile Fillies. In the same race, others near the top of the freshmen’s league are represented by Simply Ravishing (Laoban) and Vequist (Nyquist).

Success for Vequist would show how tightly these cycles turn: Nyquist himself, in sealing his championship at the Breeders’ Cup, belonged to the first crop of Uncle Mo–who duly gained an eponymous momentum he has maintained ever since.

Nyquist also fields Gretzky the Great in the GI Juvenile Turf (presented by Coolmore America), where Outwork has the chance to consolidate his own strong start through Outadore. And in the GI Juvenile (presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance) itself, a whole bunch of freshmen take a hand: Not This Time again, plus one apiece for Upstart, Frosted and Brody’s Cause; and a couple of longshots for Laoban.

Even getting this far, mind, is only a start. Plenty of stallions have faltered after producing one or two headliners early in their careers. The challenge, then, is to consolidate after the same fashion as Maclean’s Music, who gained his first-crop foothold through the GI Preakness success of Cloud Computing but has now, crucially, built on that with two Breeders’ Cup favorites: Complexity, in the GI Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile; and Jackie’s Warrior, here in the Juvenile.

Complexity has regrouped splendidly after bombing in the 2018 Juvenile, having pitched up (just like Jackie’s Warrior) as a dazzling GI Champagne winner. Jackie’s Warrior’s forte, unsurprisingly in a barn full of speedballs, appears to be “pouring it on”. Whether he can stretch again remains to be seen: for the one-turn mile at Belmont, he tempered his opening fractions to 23.12 and 46.54, having blazed 22.56 and 44.83 in the GI Runhappy Hopeful S. and 22.06 and 44.85 over six on his previous start. The handicappers who think money grows on speed figure trees will seek no farther.

But if Maclean’s Music is a model for the rookies–in his own freshman campaign, 20 winners from just 40 starters conceived at $6,500 earned him 181 mares (including the dam of Jackie’s Warrior) at $25,000 the following spring–then he is still gazing upwards at venerable Classic influences like Tapit and the late Empire Maker.

Both have aristocratic sons menacing Jackie’s Warrior, but whereas Essential Quality–his family newly decorated by Japanese champ Contrail (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn})–is a Grade I winner over the track, Classier arrives here very raw.

The late Empire Maker could add to his legacy | EquiSport Photos

The single consolation, when Empire Maker died at the start of the year, was that he had long secured his legacy, with grandsons at stud including American Pharoah, Cairo Prince, Classic Empire, Midnight Storm and Always Dreaming. True, their respective sires had left the stage: Pioneerof the Nile predeceased Empire Maker, while Bodemeister was one of those posted to Turkey after failing to build on his breakout. With another couple of crops in the pipeline, however, Empire Maker may yet add one or two direct heirs.

As a $775,000 Keeneland September yearling, Classier was certainly priced to be a stallion–and his powerful ownership group could not have asked for a better start. They will be making no assumptions, however, after what happened with another son of Empire Maker in this race last year.

The implosion of Eight Rings opened the door to Storm the Court (Court Vision), whose shock success was by no means an outlier in a race that has also given us the likes of Action This Day (Kris S.), Wilko (Awesome Again), Vale of York (Ire) (Invincible Spirit {Ire}) and Anees (Unbridled). In that tradition, I offer you Rombauer (Twirling Candy).

Certainly his sire sets an exemplary pattern to the young guns, having dropped from $15,000 to $10,000 when his first runners appeared before earning gradual increments to $40,000. In the present market, moreover, for Twirling Candy to hold that fee for 2021 in effect represents another hike. And the diversity of his best stock, from dirt dashers (like GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint candidate Collusion Illusion) to turf routers, puts him in a strong position in the race eventually to succeed Candy Ride (Arg).

Actually his sire’s flexibility almost put Rombauer off the scent, as he started his career on grass. But then the excellent Michael McCarthy switched John and Diane Fradkin’s homebred to the main track for the GI American Pharoah S. The result was a really auspicious two-turn dirt reconnaissance. Detached early, while appearing perfectly at ease, he circled the field with a powerful move and closed to within a length of the winner, who had been handy throughout, clearing away all the while from Classier’s odds-on barnmate Spielberg (Union Rags).

Rombauer has royal Californian blood: his second dam is Ultrafleet, who gave us not only Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner California Flag (Avenue of Flags) but also his sister Cambiocorsa, “queen of the hill” at Santa Anita and granddam of Roaring Lion (Kitten’s Joy).

This winter brings us the poignant, fleeting opportunity to buy the only weanlings by Roaring Lion, whose story reminds us how unpredictable are the paths ahead of even the most wonderful young horses. Safe travels to all, then. All the rest is gravy.

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This Side Up: A Very Different Experience-but Euro Strategy Same as Ever

It’s the baby I can’t get out of my mind, try as I might.

Maybe you feel it shouldn’t have been out at all, on such an evening and in such a place: sitting there in its diaper, on a table, under the adoring smiles of the good-looking couple who had brought it into the raucous bar. But then the infant looked very much at home, alternately raising a glass of bourbon and a cheroot to its lips.

Only in L.A.; only on Halloween. On closer inspection, of course, the baby proved to be a doll and its precocious addictions automated. But Hollywood was only down the road, and its proud “father” explained that he was a professional. He created life-like dummies for the kind of roles that cause actors to become a little testy with their agents, like being blown up or run over or pushed off a cliff.

His Halloween stunt was plainly in pretty appalling taste, but the traveler needs an open mind and it was fun to hang out for a few minutes. This, after all, is just the kind of thing that makes Breeders’ Cup week what it is, for those of us who come over from Europe not simply for the most captivating race meeting on the planet but also for all the kaleidoscopic cultural impressions–some challenging, some enchanting–that go with it.

Sheer numbers at the Breeders’ Cup will look very different this year from last | Horsephotos

Back in Pasadena for Halloween last year, I was baffled and entertained anew by the communal delirium of a carnival that has, until a gradual commercial seepage in recent years, never had anything like the same importance on my side of the Atlantic. But the spectres, at Santa Anita, seemed all too real: we were all haunted by that harrowing sequence of breakdowns earlier in the year. In the event, a tremendous collective effort was bitterly unravelled in the final stages of the Classic itself, dashing to smithereens the champagne flutes all those diligent veterinarians and administrators must have been on the point of raising to their lips.

Let’s not neglect to revive an overdue toast, then, after Santa Anita recently concluded its fall meet with zero fatalities from 1,106 starters and 51,200 training bouts. Sadly, however, the Breeders’ Cup this year finds itself under a far more pervasive cloud.

For it is not just transatlantic devotees like me, grounded by the pandemic, who will feel forlornly detached this time round. Even Lexingtonians, the lucky residents of my hometown-from-home, will be painfully reminded that the whole point of the Breeders’ Cup circus is how vibrantly, and how intimately, it entwines people from all walks of life; from all parts of America, and beyond.

Some bring a particular horse, and partisan hopes. Most, however, are united by impartial fervor for the Thoroughbred, and this ultimate test of its capacity for noble endeavor. And, between mornings on the track and evenings on the town, the anticipation tends to be at least as exciting as the consummation.

As it is, the horses now have a week to thaw the human coldness of this wretched year. (And, incidentally, also to reconcile any froideurs likely to be exacerbated, in the meantime, by such a contentious election.) Will they be equal to that extra burden? We can but hope.

From the European point of view, however, that hope continues to stagnate. I won’t reprise, for the umpteenth time, how disastrously the raiders have mislaid the sense of adventure that yielded many of their finest moments at the Breeders’ Cup. Suffice to say that not a single European entry has been made in any of the dirt races, an absolutely embarrassing state of affairs when you consider how dramatically “turf” horses (both in breeding and experience) have transformed perceptions in years past.

Maximum Security working last week toward the Classic | Horsephotos

In fairness, the Coolmore partners already have a momentous stake in the Classic through Maximum Security (New Year’s Day). And they remain the one European power that reliably grasps the value, to the breed, of measuring horses in a different environment and different marketplace. (The best European racehorse of recent times, in contrast, never once spent a night away from his stable in Newmarket.)

Their willingness to roll the dice has come at a mild cost, perhaps, in the way Americans perceive their principal trainer, Aidan O’Brien. But remember that Bobby Frankel, another we knew to be a genius, had to wait for his 39th starter to win a Breeders’ Cup race; and John Sadler for his 43rd. And, almost invariably, horses shipping for Europe are being asked to regroup even as their reserves run low at the end of a long campaign.

O’Brien has saddled a dozen Breeders’ Cup scorers, including both European winners the first time the series came to Lexington. But last year the entire, 36-strong raiding party depended for its solitary success on his son, who pulled the Filly and Mare Turf out of the fire with Iridessa (Ire) (Ruler of the World {Ire}). (O’Brien and his wife Annemarie, remember, did gain credit not only as breeders of the trainer, but also of Iridessa herself.)

O’Brien divides as many as 10 of his winners between just two races, six in the Turf and four in the Juvenile Turf. Such a perfectionist hardly needs telling that he has unfinished business in other disciplines. But while these two races may seem pretty seamless, to American eyes, they are actually divided by a spectrum that shows how O’Brien, like all great trainers, views each race in a horse’s career as an organic part of a bigger, longer project.

The Turf is a destination for a horse reaching its prime, like Highland Reel (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), Found (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) or High Chaparral (Ire) (Sadler’s Wells). For the adolescents sent over for the Juvenile Turf, however, it is as much about new experience–long travel, change of training environment, sharp tracks–as the customary stakes of prizemoney or a stud career.

Mendelssohn (Scat Daddy) nailed it both ways, in 2017, gaining the laurels on the day while also laying the ground for a switch to dirt, where he proved better yet. The next year, nobody gave a second glance at Anthony Van Dyck (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) after he finished a rather dazed ninth. But the following June he showed the dividends, over the Epsom rollercoaster, by winning the Derby itself.

O’Brien’s candidate for the race this year is the first foal of none other than Found, a War Front colt named Battleground. Albeit more by accident than design, having been held up by a cough, he will be much fresher than the typical raider having made three starts in June and July and then disappeared. He broke his maiden at Royal Ascot, no less, and then followed up at Goodwood–a useful track to educate a horse with America in mind, though he will duly want to look a bit sharper about his work this time. The form doesn’t look too gripping, but he is too valuable a prospect to be sent here without due purpose.

His pedigree, in mingling the best of transatlantic influences, represents exactly what horsemen should always be looking to achieve–at the Breeders’ Cup and beyond. In racing terms, there’s a similar exercise underway with Qatar Racing’s Kameko (Kitten’s Joy), whose Classic success at Newmarket in May underlined just how culpably obtuse European breeders have been in learning the lessons offered about their sire by poor old Roaring Lion. (The one man sharp enough to buy both horses being David Redvers.)

That’s another theme I have probably labored enough, by this stage. But while it may sound paradoxical, to me these are two sides of the same coin. Their turf horses, given the chance, would do far better in next weekend’s dirt races than most European horsemen would nowadays seem to expect. At the same time, however, many American stallions–not just Kitten’s Joy but speed-carrying dirt sires–would also give European mares a better chance of producing Classic horses on their home turf.

But you know what they say. You can lead a horse to water, and all that. And much the same is true of horsemen. After all, when even the babies drink bourbon, why would any of us try to get through such a bittersweet week on water?

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This Side Up: Too Much Heart for Most, Too Much Head for the Rest

So long, old big head.

Most who fit that description are good; just not quite as good as they think. But you showed an indomitability rooted, not in arrogance, but in an awareness that the odds of life are seldom easy; that the crown must be earned, not just ceremonially conferred. In your case, it just needed a little extra by way of circumference.

The retirement from stud of Tiznow (Cee’s Tizzy), announced this week, is poignantly timed. In a few days’ time, a fresh name will be carved on the roll of honor for the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic, on which Tiznow remains the only one to recur. It looks a vintage edition, but for many of us it will be difficult to suppress an inner hollowness to match the empty stands.

Tiznow was a monster of a racehorse–starting, of course, pretty literally with his daunting physique. His unique double in the Classic, in fact, was secured by an aggregate roughly commensurate with that triceratops skull of his: a neck verdict over Giant’s Causeway (Storm Cat) in 2000 and a nose over Sakhee (Bahri) the following year. Either of those duels would qualify among the most stirring you’ll ever witness; to share authorship of both makes Tiznow one of the most memorable Thoroughbreds of the modern era.

Most runnings of the Classic, naturally enough, will not measure up to those two years. Yet simple iteration, the renewal of a ritual in our calendar, makes every Breeders’ Cup an authentic milestone on the road of life; and a true pilgrim of us mere railbirds.

I will never forget watching the 2000 Classic alongside one of the nicest people I know, another Englishman, who had bet Tiznow to win; halfway down the stretch, he suddenly started hollering for Giant’s Causeway. Here, wonderfully, was someone renouncing financial gain for the sheer excitement he would have discovered in a success as bold as the one that so nearly fell within the reach of the Iron Horse.

For it was to the Europeans that Tiznow was most truly monstrous. By a desperate margin, his ogre’s snout consecutively confounded two of the most audacious adventures undertaken by the rival powerhouses of racing in Europe. Giant’s Causeway admittedly carried some versatile influences, but Sakhee, who had won the Arc by six lengths 20 days previously, was saturated with staying grass blood. Yet the connections of both understood the essential transferability, between different surfaces, of class.

Tiznow (right) prevails over Europe’s Giant’s Causeway in his first of two Breeders’ Cup Classics | Horsephotos

Nonetheless I soon found myself borrowing and reversing my friend’s generosity of spirit. Who could begrudge a horse as lion-hearted as this? After all, when he went to WinStar, Tiznow invited the whole business to see the bigger picture.

Because the whole package demanded a fresh look at what makes a Hall of Fame dirt runner: this hulking Cal-bred, offering to extend the perilously attenuating Man o’ War line through a mare whose frankly peculiar antecedents (first four dams by Seattle Song, Nice Dancer, Pia Star and Tompion) would meanwhile coalesce into something quite remarkable.

At the time, even such a terrific record on the track could not qualify a son of Cee’s Tizzy, who had himself stood for $1,500, for a higher opening fee than $30,000. And nor could the success of Tiznow’s stock, including 14 Grade I winners and many bombshell sales yearlings, ever get him into the six-figure club. Though he landed running, with first-crop champion Folklore sealing the freshman’s championship, his rugged and rangy foals had the ostensibly uncommercial virtue of thriving with maturity. Tiznow himself was unraced at two and Well Armed, for instance, waited until six to gild that debut crop with the G1 Dubai World Cup.

But as Tiznow began to replicate his sterling attributes (often through fairly mediocre mares), so we all grew in admiration for the work of Cecilia “Cee” Straub-Rubens, who had purchased both his sire and dam as yearlings.

Cee’s Tizzy (Relaunch) ended a light career with third in the GI Super Derby, in which runner-up Unbridled would also achieve a more enduring distinction than winner Home At Last. Besides Tiznow, his serial matings with Cee’s Song (Seattle Song) also yielded Grade II winners Budroyale and Tizdubai; Grade II-placed Tizbud; the unraced dam of GI Preakness winner Oxbow (Awesome Again); and the unplaced dam of GI Haskell scorer Paynter (also by Awesome Again).

A real dynasty, then, blossomed unfeasibly in the strips of sunlight cast between the steel-girder limbs that supported the raking stride of its principal scion. Who knows which layers of soil have been most fertile?

Some credit, perhaps, can go to the second dam of Cee’s Tizzy: the prolific Chilean import Tizna was not only still operating at a high level at age seven, but apparently also set a template with a blaze and four white feet. Cee’s Tizzy fractured a knee in the Super Derby but standing opposite Tizna in his pedigree is Relaunch’s very influential dam Foggy Note, also familiar in the pedigree of Tapit; between them, these mares made 88 starts.

Behind Cee’s Song, equally, you find conspicuous durability in her Argentinian roots. Her fourth dam, for instance, made 133 starts across seven years; and her half-brother was none other than Crimson Satan, whose footprint we recently noted in the family of the flourishing Dialed In. He, too, had teak qualities as a champion juvenile who proceeded to win 18 of 58 starts. Other siblings raced 92, 89 and 72 times respectively.

Tiznow, pensioned at age 23 | PM Photos/Mary Ellet

Such are the goods filtering into the 21st Century through Tiznow. Obviously the stakes are pretty high for one of his sons to maintain the viability of a sire line ultimately tracing to the Godolphin Arabian–soon, perhaps, in as much danger of asphyxiation by the Darley Arabian hegemony as that of the Byerley Turk. In Kentucky, Tourist and Strong Mandate still retain every chance; and of course another heir may yet emerge from Tiznow’s final crops, conceivably even Dennis’ Moment (back on the worktab and eyeing the GI Pegasus World Cup) if he retrieves his juvenile promise. In the meantime Tiznow is advancing his reputation as a broodmare sire, the 37 stakes winners already out of his daughters including a leading candidate for his Classic mantle in Tiz The Law (Constitution).

One way or another, there’s a legacy here worth preserving. Because Tiznow, in both build and background, reminds us always to resist lazy assumptions.

The skittish domestic market of today didn’t give much of a chance to another Cal-bred, California Chrome, before exporting him to Japan. His Breeders’ Cup duel with Arrogate was right up there with those won by Tiznow, and I’ll never tire of remarking that his conqueror’s sire Unbridled’s Song was out of a three-parts sister to the dam of his own father, Lucky Pulpit. Yet one was deemed commercially impossible, and the other a bona fide Classic influence.

Much like Ride the Rails and Indian Charlie, respectively sires of Candy Ride (Arg) and Uncle Mo, Cee’s Tizzy gave us all a rebuke along with his greatest gift. No less than with mares like Leslie’s Lady (Tricky Creek), we can’t just declare “exceptions to the rule.” We can’t pick and choose when pedigrees are relevant. If anything, we should always be more interested in the ones that are hardest to explain.

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This Side Up: Fee Cuts Can Reboot the System

As we have come to expect, in a trading environment that nowadays owes so much to their boss, it was the guys at Spendthrift who first put their heads over the parapet.

This week, anyway. To be fair, the original lead actually came from Chuck Fipke–a match for the unorthodoxy and initiative even of B. Wayne Hughes, and prepared way back in the spring to waive his 2020 stallion fees altogether.

Fipke reasoned that his entire pitch was to small breeders, who were already looking down the barrel as the pandemic took hold; and also that he owned his stallions outright, duly having no responsibilities to shareholders. This week, however, Spendthrift became the first in a rapid series of big farms to grasp the nettle with some extremely purposeful fee cuts, at every level, for 2021.

It’s a fascinating situation, because you could argue that stallion fees have in recent years ceased to make sense from either side. For those breeders who must retrieve costs in the sales ring, the commercial imperative to use only new sires tends to require them to spend far too much on unproven potential. For farm accountants, equally, the window of opportunity is so narrow that corralling adequate books even into years two and three is becoming harder and harder; so much so, that even exorbitant opening fees may not square the ledger.

But now they have no alternative but to lead their stallions out to the crossroads and help the breeder save on gas. Our business operates in unalterable cycles, initiated by the choice of a stallion. His fee sets the bar of viability for every project. Add keep and labor–which, in contrast, scarcely vary whatever the value of your mare–and you’ll have your break-even number.

That’s how organically everyone is connected. And that’s why the guy setting the fee must read the marketplace for young stock, and give all parties the chance to come out ahead. Because he or she will need them to retain the funds and morale to do it all again. That’s why John Sikura, who views the big picture as dynamically as anyone in the business, was at such pains in pricing the Hill ‘n’ Dale roster to stress that “we are all in this together.”

And let’s not forget how slowly the wheel turns. At a time like this, that’s actually a comfort. Following a bereavement, I haven’t been ringside at the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale until the past couple of days, but the staggering resilience of the market there has been most instructive. Everyone, pending the promised land of vaccines and cures, shares the same misery over COVID and its indefinite span. But the breeding and trading of Thoroughbreds tends to develop in our insular, eccentric community–even in the pinhooker, fluttering from flower to flower–a patience and perspective that could, for once, be usefully emulated out there in the “real” world.

The reality is that plenty of horsemen made good money out of a bull run extending a decade since the last big market shock. If they can now tough out a couple of lean years, they will surely keep faith in a system that has served them so well. After all, they can’t just leave those horses chewing grass out there. And they have been broadsided, out of nowhere, by something completely unaccountable and extraneous. As and when they get back on an even keel, they know they have the maps and compasses to chart a sustainable course.

And that’s without admitting to ourselves that our business is exceptionally well positioned, should economic recovery be neither V- nor U-shaped but, as we increasingly hear, K-shaped. Trading in luxury goods, horsemen rely on “trickledown” from the most affluent in society. Among that class, even so, perhaps at least the old-school paternalists–a type of conservative often drawn to the Turf–will seek nothing more precious from the next four years, tax breaks included, than a little more political and social stability. Because we are, indeed, all in this together.

At every level of the industry, these fee cuts can trigger a communal reset. It boils down to a single word: opportunity. As I keep saying, the great harvests of capitalism are often sown in the thinnest soil. This winter, once again, we’ll be running a value check across all Kentucky stallions–and already we’re salivating over some of the fees announced this week.

Some prospectors may even resolve to invest in mares to take advantage. No sector of the market demands more patience, of course, than breeding stock. But you can guarantee that we’ll look back, a few years hence, and discover that many a top-class racehorse was bred from mares more or less “stolen” from the forthcoming sales.

Ah, racehorses! Remember them? There could be no more wholesome corrective, out of this crisis, than restoring our focus to the racetrack; than renouncing this addiction to the self-fulfilling, artificial values that begin and end on a sales rostrum.

In fact, whisper it, but it might be no bad thing for the commercial market to falter long enough for breeders to abandon these fast-buck stallions, scarcely any of which will ever again command so high a fee, for the kind of yeoman achievers that might build up a family with a few rosettes on the track instead. We will all have our different favorites, but already know that many will be priced to make that a very far-sighted strategy.

Hindsight may also show us, of course, that one or two weanling colts selling this November will eventually figure among the first stallions confined to 140 mares. That will certainly set a new puzzle to those careworn farm accountants. On the other hand, perhaps by then people will have grasped that breeding animals that can actually run ultimately makes more sense than wiping out families in pursuit of fleeting commercial gain.

It’s an ill wind, as they say, that blows no good–and that applies even to the tempests of 2020.

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