Chris McGrath | Horse Racing Free Tips

Life Only Gets Better for Mischief

Call it the year of authentication. After sealing his giddy rise with a first sires’ championship last year, Into Mischief has retained his title in 2020 with spectacular ease. Indeed, while several of his predecessors have required a single outstanding earner to elevate them above their rivals, this most remarkable of stallions would have secured the laurels even without the $7.17 million banked by a son on the point of formal anointment as Horse of the Year.

As it is, we can instead treat his latest champion, Authentic, as immediate and priceless confirmation that an upgrade in Into Mischief’s mares–and remember he was still only a $45,000 cover when Peter Blum sent Flawless (Mr Greeley) to the Spendthrift phenomenon in 2016–would enable him to draw out his trademark speed through a second turn.

There had, admittedly, already been auspicious glimpses of this capacity: Owendale and Audible, for instance, had both emerged from much cheaper books to finish strongly for Classic placings. But the emergence of a GI Kentucky Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic winner is not a matter of mere consolidation for Into Mischief. Authentic represents a neon validation of his competence to produce the kind of Triple Crown stock commensurate with a fee that has now soared, even as tariffs are being slashed at his own and virtually every other farm, to $225,000.

And if Authentic proved to be aptly named, then how about Life Is Good as a potential flagship for their sire’s next crop, which was conceived at $75,000? It’s obviously early days for a colt who only made his debut last month, but their trainer is eyeing the GIII Sham S. on Saturday–the very race he used to launch Authentic as a similarly raw sophomore prospect.

Other Into Mischief youngsters already astir include Mandaloun, who has won both starts to date for Brad Cox and may head to the GIII Lecomte S. a couple of weeks later; and Highly Motivated, whose track record at Keeneland was admittedly one of several to fall Breeders’ Cup weekend but nonetheless attests to his abundant natural speed. As a sprinter who must show how far he can stretch, Highly Motivated sets a familiar challenge. But Mandaloun certainly measures the changing complexion of the genetic material nowadays complementing Into Mischief’s own contribution: he is a Juddmonte homebred, out of an Empire Maker mare who won a Group race over just short of 10 furlongs in Ireland.

Authentic was his sire’s flagship runner this year | Coady

The momentum behind Into Mischief, as such, looks inexorable for the next few years. His rise has been sustained by unusually reliable libido and fertility, and he remains assured of undiminished quantity to support the improving quality of his mares. His books have proved invulnerable to fee increases: his 2021 juveniles, conceived at $100,000, emerge from a book of 245; the next crop, at $150,000, from one of 241; and this year he covered 248 mares at $175,000. Obviously he has his home herd to service, gratis, but the turnover being generated by outside mares is still eye-watering.

Famously, of course, there are nine breeders out there who wouldn’t have to pay a cent–though presumably they will mostly have cashed out by now, having secured a lifetime breeding right by committing a mare to Into Mischief’s first two seasons. It was launching a couple of rookies into the backdraft of the 2008 financial crisis that inspired Spendthrift’s owner B. Wayne Hughes to develop Share the Upside, pioneer among many the incentive schemes that have meanwhile transformed the stallion industry in the Bluegrass. (A process, admittedly, that has discomfited many a farm; and, in candour, made some rivals resent the rise of Into Mischief as poster boy for a whole new culture.)

The kind of elite stallion Hughes is now managing to bring to the farm won’t need that kind of extra support. Both Spendthrift and its flagship stallion have come a long way since Into Mischief covered 50 mares at $7,500 in 2012, just as his first runners were about to reach the track.

Those first years earning his stripes do mean that Into Mischief is now in his prime, about to turn 16. He already has some promising sons at stud, even from his cheaper books, and breeders at all levels duly have more accessible alternatives: from those who sent 196 mares to Maximus Mischief at $7,500 in his debut book, to those who will pay 10 times that sum to reach Authentic this coming spring.

Nonetheless, after finishing 35th, 13th and fourth in the three years prior to his first title, Into Mischief is clearly going to take a lot of shifting from the summit for the time being. Yes, it remains possible for a handful of disproportionate purses in the international calendar to distort the validity of a pecking order determined by prize money. In fact, it had come to seem imperative to find a more instructive gauge after Unbridled’s Song won a posthumous championship in 2017 exclusively through the lucrative endeavors of Arrogate, who won the GI Pegasus and G1 Dubai World Cup in the first three months of the year. Otherwise Unbridled’s Song would have finished 44th. (Not that the horse so denied the title, Candy Ride {Arg}, could throw stones from his glass house: without Gun Runner, he would have finished 20th.)

Into Mischief at home at Spendthrift | Sarah Andrew

Hats off, then, to Into Mischief for restoring a helpful correlation between prize money and consistent merit. Last year, his top earner Covfefe contributed just $1,052,425 to an overall haul of $19,179,389. This time round, his progeny earned well over $15 million even without the bank vault filled by Authentic. That would still have put him $3 million clear of a runner-up, in Medaglia d’Oro, who himself owes very nearly half his 2020 earnings to his prolific Hong Kong star Golden Sixty (Aus).

And that’s in terms of global earnings. If measured by North American and European purses only, Into Mischief has doubled the tally of his nearest pursuer, Uncle Mo ($21.7 million against $10.6 million). To be fair, whatever else he is, he is not yet a stallion of intercontinental reach: his overseas earnings are marginal. But he is certainly restoring the good name of the championship he has retained.

This consistency of output is partly a function of the industrial Spendthrift model–which is driven by opportunity, to put it positively; or numbers, to put it more plainly. Even in a year where the pandemic devoured much of the springtime program, and in particular delayed the advent of the juveniles, Into Mischief has had 420 starters. (This and all other numbers cited remain subject to mild overnight updates, being correct to Dec. 30.) In the top 10 only Uncle Mo, standing on another farm that will not take kindly to the impending restriction on books to 140, has had even 300 starters.

So yes, there have been plenty of stallions in 2020 with a superior ratio of winners to starters. But the witting, willing trade-off made by these big commercial farms, who believe a stallion gets more momentum from headline horses than small-print percentages, does not actually weaken the credentials of the champion. Because his 15% black-type performers-to-starters is the best of the year; narrowly exceeding a rival, in War Front, who has always operated with quality ahead of quantity. His 29 black-type winners, moreover, were assembled at a clip matched among Kentucky rivals only by Speightstown and, in another significant endorsement for the numbers game, Uncle Mo.

Other Top Proven Sires
We’ll be crediting several who have performed well behind Into Mischief in our ongoing series previewing covering options for 2021. For now, it’s worth giving honourable mentions to a handful. Multiple previous champion Tapit remains a wonder of consistency, once again on the podium; the splendid veteran Speightstown was unique in managing four individual Grade I winners; Munnings, in breaking into the top ten, has stopped smouldering and is now sparking at last, as high as fourth in the North American/European table; Hard Spun, following through on fourth last year with another excellent show in ninth, continues to outpunch his fee; and likewise The Factor, still only $17,500 despite only just missing the top 10 active Kentucky stallions.

Uncle Mo | Coolmore photo

But perhaps the most conspicuous achiever behind Into Mischief has been Uncle Mo–not just after ascending to fourth from 13th, but as the sire of three of the top four in the freshmen’s championship. That makes 2020 a game-changing year for Ashford’s linchpin of the Caro line, who is only turning 13.

Among his current racing stock, consistency was the key: while he didn’t muster a single Grade I winner, none could match Uncle Mo’s 14 individual graded stakes winners. But for a stallion with just six racing crops to have emerged virtually overnight as a sire of sires is quite extraordinary.

First-Crop Sires
Just as Nyquist emerged from Uncle Mo’s first crop to emulate his 2-year-old championship, so he has in turn become champion freshman sire (by prize money) with a GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner of his own. Vequist accounts for half the earnings banked by Nyquist’s 17 winners from 45 starters. He has not messed around: he only has two stakes winners, but both had the opportunism to win at Grade I level (Vequist plus Summer S. winner Gretzky the Great). Of five black-type performers overall, moreover, Nyquist has had two others placed at the elite level.

If Nyquist has jumped through the same hoops as his sire, Laoban came out of left field–or at least out of New York, where he had started at $5,000. After pulling fairytale GI Alcibiades S. winner Simply Ravishing out of his hat, Laoban is on his way to WinStar in Kentucky where he will join Outwork, their sire’s other fast starter with 19 winners.

Not This Time | Jon Siegel

Intruding on Uncle Mo’s private party was Not This Time, far and away the most prolific with no fewer than 28 individual winners from 54 starters. He has proved he can get a good one, too, with the charismatic OBS Spring Sale-topper Princess Noor a runaway winner of the GI Del Mar Debutante (unfortunately since retired with a soft tissue injury).

Second-Crop Sires
These young guns will now look to consolidate after the fashion of American Pharoah and Constitution, who finished first and second in the freshmen’s table last year and fill the same positions in the second-crop championship. The big mover in this group was obviously Daredevil, whose star filly Swiss Skydiver helped him up to fourth, and back to the Bluegrass from Turkey, after her anonymous debut last year.

Third-Crop Sires and Beyond
Top of the preceding intake remains Goldencents, who finished second as a freshman and first last year. This was the first racehorse to show that Into Mischief might become a more potent sire than had been expected. Who can say, then, which unheralded young stallion may commence some equivalent rags-to-riches rise in 2021? That’s the whole beauty of this business. We’re always seeing stallions who seem to have the world at their feet, falling flat on their faces; and the converse, too.

As Hughes constantly reminds his team at Spendthrift: “Nobody knows.” That may seem a disadvantage, if you’re trying to put together any kind of coherent business plan with Thoroughbreds. But actually it’s what gives us all a chance–and the reason why Into Mischief, for all the uncomfortable challenges Hughes has set more conventional competitors, deserves a universal toast on concluding another remarkable chapter in his epic tale.

The post Life Only Gets Better for Mischief appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Kentucky Sires for 2021, First Yearlings: Part II

Thursday, Chris McGrath covered the first half of the Kentucky stallions with first yearlings. Click here to read about Justify, City of Light, West Coast, Mendelssohn, Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro, and Always Dreaming. The second part appears below.

ACCELERATE (Lookin At Lucky–Issues, by Awesome Again) has also been trimmed to $17,500, at Lane’s End, having already been our “gold” value pick of the intake at an opening $20,000. Whatever made him attractive then has scarcely diminished in the meantime, given that he was never going to appeal to those fast-buck cynics who breed for the ring rather than the track. As it was, he actually made an auspicious start with his weanlings: the 13 sold (of 21) averaged $68,307, better than a couple already examined at higher fees and duly a more fertile yield.

A fee that so generously acknowledged the possibility of commercial wariness–this, after all, was a horse that only reached his true prime at five–certainly paid dividends in books of 167 and 137 to get Accelerate started. These breeders will get a ton of horse for the money: his Breeders’ Cup Classic success was his fifth at Grade I level in a year when his solitary reverse was by a neck to the brilliant City of Light over nine furlongs. His GI Pacific Classic romp, by a record 12 1/2 lengths, was underwritten by a 115 Beyer and it took an unbeaten Triple Crown winner to deny him Horse of the Year.

There’s an old-school grandeur to his page: his first two dams are granddaughters of Deputy Minister and Damascus; the second is also a half-sister to a GI Jockey Club Gold Cup winner; and he’s inbred to a Broodmare of the Year in fifth dam Smartaire, whose son Smarten is damsire of Lookin At Lucky’s father Smart Strike. But remember also that his stakes-placed mother has produced a Grade I-placed juvenile, and that even as a son of such a scandalously underrated sire he realized $380,000 from a terrific judge as a yearling. So there may be rather more commercial traction than some might anticipate, besides all those priceless assets of soundness, constitution and progression that any sane breeder should wish to impart to a family.

Collected | Sarah Andrew

Another GI Pacific Classic winner, COLLECTED (City Zip–Helena Bay {GB}, by Johannesburg), has proved very popular at Airdrie, duly holding a $17,500 fee after covering 156 and 155 mares in his first two seasons. Around half his weanlings into the ring were retained for another go–nine sold of 21 at an average $58,777–and it’s true that Collected himself thrived with maturity, splitting Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}) and West Coast in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic at four after shocking Arrogate (Unbridled’s Song) at Del Mar in high summer. That season he accumulated triple-digit Beyers in all six starts, a rare accomplishment indeed. But don’t forget that Collected was also a debut winner and graded stakes-placed at two.

The legacy of City Zip has come to seem ever more precious, and Collected has a cosmopolitan and classy pedigree held together by fifth dam Runaway Bride, whose son Blushing Groom (Fr) is responsible for the dam of Collected’s grandsire Carson City. European shoppers of sufficient imagination (admittedly a rather pathetic minority, nowadays) should definitely be interested in a dirt performer who carried dirt speed so well when his first four dams are by Johannesburg, Danehill, Lyphard and Alleged; his mother, meanwhile, is half-sister to a couple of group performers in Japan.

Collected was one of those who lost momentum when kept in training for an extra season but certainly looked value compared with those who finished either side of him at the Breeders’ Cup, who started at $70,000 and $35,000, respectively. Sure enough, he’s the one who has managed to hold his fee and, from such an exemplary farm, he will surely get the track performers to show why.

Oscar Performance | Sarah Andrew

It’s been great to see a stallion back at Mill Ridge, where they are also doing a fine job in the promotion of OSCAR PERFORMANCE (Kitten’s Joy–Devine Actress, by Theatrical {Ire}). We all know how breeders talk the talk about the imperatives of the expanding turf program, without always walking the walk. But Oscar has welcomed strong three-figure books in both seasons to date, and the seven sold of 10 weanlings into the ring put him just where he needed to be at $57,285.

A clip from $20,000 to $15,000 should keep him right in the game, and there’s no doubting his eligibility to catch a rising tide with the proliferation of grass and synthetic opportunities; not to mention the industry’s increasing vigilance over medication. Racing without Lasix, Oscar Performance won Grade Is at two, three and four, and blew the dust off a 20-year-old record for a mile at Belmont at 1:31.23.

Really it’s some package: the constitution to bank $2.3 million through three seasons, having won a Saratoga maiden by over 10 lengths on his way to winning at the Breeders’ Cup at two; and a pedigree saturated with Classic influences on both sides of the ocean. Being out of a Theatrical mare, Oscar Performance entwines the twin lines of Northern Dancer instituted by Special and her daughter Fairy Bridge, respectively via Nureyev and Sadler’s Wells.

Good Samaritan | Sarah Andrew

It was constantly bumping into Oscar Performance that helped to drive GOOD SAMARITAN (Harlan’s Holiday–Pull Dancer, by Pulpit) into what turned into a fertile experiment on dirt instead, starting with success in the GII Jim Dandy S. and only beaten a half in the GI Clark H. Launched at $12,500 by WinStar, he mustered as many as 162 mares in his first book and another 104 last spring. Having processed 15 of 18 weanlings into the ring at $30,100, he gets a bit of help with his fee, down to $7,500.

If a grade below his old rival Oscar, he also maintained his form through three seasons and he’s a nice looker with aristocratic antecedents: his branch of the La Troienne dynasty, stretching through fourth dam La Affirmed (Affirmed), has already produced productive stallions in Sky Mesa and Bernstein.

Down to $10,000 from an opening $12,500, TAPWRIT (Tapit–Appealing Zophie, by Successful Appeal) is a lovely creature who earned a place alongside his sire at Gainesway with a GI Belmont S. success and a stakes record in the GII Tampa Bay Derby. His second book dropped from 154 to 95, but he made a most respectable start at the sales, selling 14 of 18 at $46,214. He should certainly breed a pretty horse, as a $1.2 million Saratoga yearling himself; and he’s entitled to be quicker out of the blocks than might be expected, his dam being a Grade I winner at two. (Incidentally, she has also produced a Grade II winner on turf.)

Mo Town | Sarah Andrew

MO TOWN (Uncle Mo–Grazie Mille, by Bernardini) has taken a second consecutive cut at Ashford, now $7,500 having opened at $12,500, after covering 144 and 108 mares in his first two books and moving on a dozen of 18 weanlings at $36,750.

Actually I like this horse quite a bit and hope he is given time. He was one of those who had somewhat faded from view by the time he arrived at stud, having been confined to a single unproductive start when kept in training at four. But he had shown versatility and class in winning the GII Remsen as a juvenile and then switching onto ‘the weeds’ to win the GI Hollywood Derby.

Obviously Uncle Mo is on a roll as a sire of sires, looking at the freshman championship; and likewise Mo Town’s damsire, as a broodmare sire; plus I love Carson City, Danzig and Sir Ivor seeding the next three generations. The acquisition of the Grade I-placed granddam was another insight into the thoughtful strategies of the Gunthers, as her great-grandsire Raise a Native was full-brother to her third dam.

Mo Town resembles his soaring sire rather more closely in appearance than in fee, and flexibility in terms of surfaces is nowadays supposed to be at an increasing premium. If he appears to be cooling off a little, commercially, then remember that these remain very early days indeed. If anything, this could prove an opportune moment to get ahead of the curve.

Army Mule | Sarah Andrew

Another who slips to $7,500 despite having looked pretty fair value at $10,000 is ARMY MULE (Friesan Fire–Crafty Toast, by Crafty Prospector) at Hill ‘n’ Dale. That’s not hard to explain when you consider that his opening book of 140 slumped to just 47 this time round, but he actually made an excellent start in the ring: the 12 weanlings sold of 14 offered achieved an average of $49,083. That’s a yield matched only by City of Light in the whole intake.

If Army Mule was one of those that are just “too fast to last,” there’s no doubt that he had freakish ability. Though confined to just three starts, he won them by an aggregate 22 lengths in some smouldering times: romping in the GI Carter H. on his stakes debut, for instance, in 1:20.94. He had already flashed his physical charisma and speed when making $825,000 as a Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old, and would hardly be the first influential stallion to have advertised his prowess in a window as narrow as four minutes’ racing in anger.

It’s sometimes hard to explain where talent like this comes from. But his first three dams respectively won at stakes, Grade III and Grade II level; and, if the sire may not be as respected in Kentucky as in Maryland, he is a wonderful conduit of Secretariat’s distaff influence. If I were a pinhooker for the 2-year-old sales, I would have this guy pretty near the top of my list among this lot.

Cloud Computing | Sarah Andrew

The same farm’s gamble on another brief candle, of course, produced an immediate Classic winner in CLOUD COMPUTING (Maclean’s Music–Quick Temper, by A.P. Indy). He started out at Spendthrift off $7,500, herding 171 and 122 mares before sending a dozen weanlings into the ring, 10 selling at $29,550.

Cloud Computing’s form soon tapered off after he won the GI Preakness S. barely three months after his debut. Nonetheless, it speaks to his physique that Mike Ryan gave $200,000 for a Maclean’s Music colt way down the September catalog as Hip 1831, and the pedigree is seeded throughout by wonderful old-school influences. (With the uncommon exception of Waquoit, a 15-length Jockey Club Gold Cup winner whose best daughter, the hard-knocking Grade I winner Halo America, is Cloud Computing’s second dam.) Overall there’s a lot of good blood here for a fee down to $5,000.

Of the rest, a toe in the water at the weanling sales generally proved a chilling experience, but that’s pretty standard at this end of the market and wouldn’t remotely disqualify any of them from earning a way back into fashion.

Ransom the Moon | Sarah Andrew

RANSOM THE MOON (Malibu Moon–Count to Three, by Red Ransom) retains a fee of $7,500 at Calumet despite his three-figure debut book dwindling to 44 mares this time round. Beating Roy H (More Than Ready) in consecutive runnings of the GI Bing Crosby S., however, is no mean distinction and one underpinned by the soundness to race five seasons. His historic farm has a somewhat quirky roster nowadays, with its stallions seldom undervalued. But there are still one or two nuggets we’ll be highlighting later in this series.

While SHARP AZTECA (Freud–So Sharp, by Saint Liam) is down to $6,500 from an opening $10,000 at Three Chimneys, he has numbers behind him after mustering 101 mares to follow a monster opening book of 195.

And he remains a very legitimate prospect, his splendid track career–earnings of $2.4 million, on the board in 14 of 17 starts, crowned with a five-length romp in the GI Cigar Mile (115 Beyer)–being rooted in a really interesting page, pairing up siblings Saint Ballado and Glorious Song 3×4. He’s another whose pedigree has been nurtured through several generations only with the best stallions and, with a bottom line tracing to champion and matriarch Kamar (Key to the Mint), he is perfectly entitled to pull a champion out of his hat. Definitely, definitely worth a roll of the dice at this money.

The horse who beat Sharp Azteca in the GI Met Mile, clocking a knockout 117 Beyer, was consolidating the Grade I status he had established at two in the Los Alamitos Futurity. MOR SPIRIT (Eskendereya–Im a Dixie Girl, by Dixie Union) duly vindicated a $650,000 2-year-old tag and his graded stakes-placed dam is out of a half-sister to the dam of Stellar Wind (Curlin). Any reservations about his sire should have been cleared up by Mitole’s success in the same stallion-making race last year, and Spendthrift dependably assembled 176 and then 136 mares in his first two seasons. He has plenty of ballast, then, for one taking consecutive fee cuts, now down to $5,000 from an opening $10,000.

Another Met Mile winner, BEE JERSEY (Jersey Town–Bees, by Rahy), was always good value at $5,000 and advanced his second book at Darby Dan from 61 to 73. None has sampled the ring as yet, but he’s a fine-looking horse with a fantastic pedigree (fourth dam Lassie Dear, no less), so long as you are prepared to take a chance on his own sire. In fairness to that hard-knocking son of Speightstown, this was some advertisement from his first crop–he ran a 109 Beyer in wiring the Met–and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the unorthodoxy and imagination of Charles Fipke pay off by breeding another good one from Bee Jersey.

Nor, equally, if he does the same with TALE OF VERVE (Tale of Ekati–Verve, by Unbridled), whose marginal track qualifications are reflected in a fee of just $2,000 at the same farm, but whose family is also aristocratic: dam a half-sister to Grade I winner/multiple Grade I producer Zoftig (Cozzene) from the clan of Swale (Seattle Slew) and Forty Niner (Mr. Prospector).

Funtastic | Sarah Andrew

FREE DROP BILLY (Union Rags–Trensa, by Giant’s Causeway) has been sensibly reduced to $5,000 from an opening $10,000 after assembling pretty conservative books (82 and 91) by Spendthrift standards. He’s a juvenile Grade I winner out of a terrific mare, also responsible for Group 1 winner Hawkbill (Kitten’s Joy); and the next dam is a Grade I winner out of a half-sister to that very wholesome influence Cozzene.

MCCRAKEN (Ghostzapper–Ivory Empress, by Seeking the Gold) was another smart juvenile, his GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. qualifying him as the most precocious son of his sire, and he’s out of a graded stakes-placed half-sister to a Grade I winner. Though only denied his Grade I in the final stride of the Haskell, speed was his true forte–virtually invincible, in fact, up to a mile and sixteenth–and he confirmed his powers of acceleration when breaking the track record in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby. McCraken struggled for numbers last spring, but he has the graduates of a three-figure debut book going out to bat for him; and a clip to $6,000 at Airdrie (opened at $10,000) should also help.

FUNTASTIC (More Than Ready–Quiet Dance, by Quiet American) had a very small first book but moved up to 51 mares at Three Chimneys last year, having dropped to $5,000 from $7,500. His shock Grade I success in the United Nations H. serves principally to showcase some authentically priceless genes as a half-brother to Saint Liam (Saint Ballado) and the dam of Gun Runner.

CHRIS McGRATH’S VALUE PODIUM
Gold: Accelerate ($17,500, Lane’s End)
You want runners? You know he’ll get them…
Silver: Mo Town ($7,500, Ashford)
Keep the faith, every right to add sire’s ‘Mo’-mentum
Bronze: Army Mule ($7,500, Hill ‘n’ Dale)
Weanlings sold well and even better target for 2-y-o pinhookers

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021, First Yearlings: Part II appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

KY Value Sires For 2021: First Foals Due: Part I

What an interesting crossroads we reach with the next group of young stallions in our survey. On the one hand, you have this new dynamic in the marketplace, with Spendthrift increasingly welcoming blue-chip prospects to build on its blue-collar successes. Yes, these may be looking to build more conventional, fee-based careers, as opposed to relying on the type of innovative promotions that helped Into Mischief evolve from a source of cheap commercial speed into the champion sire of a Kentucky Derby winner (who has himself now joined the roster, of course, so maintaining the general direction of travel). But other aspects of the model, notably books on an industrial scale, apply even to the stallions who this time last year charged the top three fees of the new intake. (Strictly the top, second and joint-third; though we should note that Spendthrift also looked after less affluent clientele with two of the cheapest rookies.)

At the same time, however, we have meanwhile had the dead weight of the pandemic reining in fees nearly across the board. And here again, as so often, it was B. Wayne Hughes and his team who took the lead. So while the farms have largely priced the latest group of rookies with confidence in an unswerving addiction among commercial breeders, some of the fees charged for the preceding group have been trimmed in purposeful fashion.

One way or another, then, the seas are high. But breeders can certainly hope to catch a following wind.
The Spendthrift factory was certainly functioning with its customary efficiency when these horses were launched in the spring. In fact, its big three newcomers corralled 683 mares between them.

Anyone who considers that a grotesque number (not least when two of them have meanwhile done a shift in Australia) will look forward to a time, down the road, when stallions will be confined to 140 partners apiece. The game-changing element here, of course, is that the gene pool is no longer being inundated just by slick commercial blood, but by wholesome two-turn influences as well.

What remains unchanged is that breeders participate in this kind of exercise–not just at Spendthrift, of course, but at all the big commercial farms–with their eyes wide open. Yes, sheer numbers behind a stallion increase the odds of a headline runner, capable of effacing much statistical embarrassment; but the trade-off will always be a potential glut of his stock funnelled into the same sales cycle.

To me, that’s a risk well worth running with OMAHA BEACH (War Front–Charming by Seeking the Gold) after he mustered 215 mares for his debut book. Even at the highest tag of the intake, we dared to put him on the “value podium” last year because $45,000 looked such a fair valuation of its standout package. Now that you can get to him for $35,000, then, the shifting market sands are amply secured by the fact that the package itself remains precisely as attractive as before.

True, the farm has not been able to resist trumpeting him as “No. 1 freshman covering sire.” I can’t blame them for that, everyone else does it, but I do wish people would stop pretending that covering sire “stats” have the slightest meaning. It’s insulting to the mare, against whose primary value the paternity of a foal in utero always remains but an incidental benefit; and, in turn, it’s insulting to the intelligence of breeders.
Be that as it may, this is a stallion who doesn’t need any such flimsy Christmas baubles. So far as these things are ever predictable, Omaha Beach appears cast-iron.

Though sadly scratched as favorite for both the GI Kentucky Derby and an intended swansong in the GI Pegasus Gold Cup, he demonstrated his class with an accomplishment nearly as rare and auspicious as a Triple Crown as the first in 30 years to win Grade Is at nine and six furlongs in the same campaign. In both cases, moreover, he achieved bona fide elite form: the GI Arkansas Derby runner-up Improbable (City Zip) has himself just retired at $40,000, while Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby) is so fearsome a specialist in the sprint sphere that he returned to course and distance next time to burn off all bar champion Mitole (Eskendereya) at the Breeders’ Cup.

We’ll happily indulge Omaha Beach his own defeat at that meeting, a creditable enough effort in a race that played out all wrong; while the flair of his third elite success, in the Malibu, only heightened regret that his trainer was not asked to explore the full range of his potential at four. Even as it was, however, he is the most accomplished dirt runner by a sire who is beyond the reach of most. Omaha Beach trademarked his speed, and his ability to carry it, in consecutive wins at 1:49.91 and 1:08.79.

And all this is underwritten by one of the most vigorous contemporary pedigrees around: he’s a half-brother to champion juvenile filly Take Charge Brandi (Giant’s Causeway) out of a half-sister to two other Grade I winners in Will Take Charge (Unbridled’s Song) and Take Charge Indy (A.P. Indy), their dam Take Charge Lady (Dehere) herself a multiple elite scorer. The pairing with War Front, meanwhile, doubles the vibrant influence of Rubiano–responsible for Omaha Beach’s third dam, besides being damsire of War Front. Rubiano, of course, was a half-brother to the dam of Tapit and duly represents the kind of knot in a pedigree you know to be woven from strong material.

With scopey looks and personality to match, Omaha Beach has all bases covered. If he ends up following the usual commercial cycles, taking cuts until his first runners restore momentum, then he looks one to stick with throughout.

You can only wonder what Omaha Beach might have achieved at four, when you consider the example of his neighbor VINO ROSSO (Curlin–Mythical Bride by Street Cry {Ire})–whose strong career finish was rewarded by a staggering 238 mares, exceeded nationally only by Uncle Mo and Mendelssohn, at Ashford, and his own farm’s flagship Into Mischief. Nonetheless he gets a clip from $30,000 to $25,000 to keep that door revolving.

The theory with this horse is that if it looks like a Curlin, swims like a Curlin, and quacks like a Curlin, chances are that it will be a Curlin. He certainly made the resemblance stronger in his third season, transforming himself from likeable slugger into the brilliant author of a 111 Beyer when taking his bow in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic.

And I must say it’s a lot easier to tolerate such huge books for unproven stallions when they match such sturdy, worthy track performance with a pedigree that is so well balanced. Like Omaha Beach, Vino Rosso is out of a dam who combines the Mr. Prospector sire-line with that of broodmare sire legend Deputy Minister. But he goes a step farther: both sire and damsire are by sons of Mr. Prospector; and sire and dam are out of mares respectively by Deputy Minister and his son Touch Gold.

This is somewhat reminiscent of the way inbreeding to Mr. P. is counterweighted by an influence for toughness and class (namely Nijinsky) in Justify (Scat Daddy), who was born the previous day on the same farm. Glennwood had been typically astute in acquiring Vino Rosso’s dam before her weanling half-brother blossomed into GI Belmont S. runner-up Commissioner (A.P. Indy) and another sibling, Laugh Track (Distorted Humor), was foiled by a similarly narrow margin in GI Breeders’ Cup Sprint.

Another striking physical, Vino Rosso is a fascinating test case for the commercial proliferation of a really edifying, old-school template. Can you get too much of a good thing? What a pleasant change to find out!

Pure commercial speed, however, was still available from the other big gun rolled into the Spendthrift arsenal last year. MITOLE (Eskendereya–Indian Miss by Indian Charlie) was correspondingly busy, entertaining 230 guests, yet gets an eye-opening slash in fee to $15,000 from $25,000.

Mitole bestrode the sprint division in a fashion that would have made him a perfectly legitimate Horse of the Year, spreading his four Grade I wins between six and eight furlongs, with a stakes record in no less storied a race than the Forego at the intermediate trip. Any horse that can sandwich a performance like that between success in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (112 Beyer) and the stallion-making Met Mile has the kind of deep-grained speed that holds. Witness times in those races of 1:09 flat, 1:20.8 and 1:32.75.

The new fee offers a helpful nudge to those seeking a little more breadth to his pedigree, albeit his dam is a half-sister to a Grade II winner; but they should comfort themselves that Mitole’s sire, though hastily exported, represents a truly aristocratic family and this was his second Met Mile winner in three crops.

Having started on the same peg, AUDIBLE (Into Mischief–Blue Devil Bel by Gilded Time) gets a mild trim to $22,500 after receiving 219 mares–apparently the biggest herd that WinStar has ever rounded up for a rookie. Obviously plenty of breeders out there agree that what counts most about Audible is the visible, his farm lauding this fine mover as “the best-looking son of Into Mischief.”

He evidently made a lasting impression in the GI Florida Derby, despite subsequently taking six months out after a storming third to Justify (Scat Daddy) in the GI Kentucky Derby and then disappearing for good after a fine effort in the G1 Dubai World Cup. In hindsight the relaxed, long-striding Audible was a real pathfinder for Authentic (Into Mischief) in showing how their sire, with the upgrading of his mares, would stretch his speed round a second turn to become a legitimate player at Classic level.

But fear not, Audible had all the trademark speed and precocity, too, as a $500,000 2-year-old who was really rolling by the time he romped in the GII Holy Bull S. in 1:41.92. And if the page is somewhat patchy in between, his fourth dam is multiple Grade I winner Classy Cathy (Private Account).

It’s perfectly understandable for Claiborne to hold CATHOLIC BOY (More Than Ready–Song Of Bernadette by Bernardini) at $25,000. His genes, physical and track record are just the same, after all, albeit the world around us may be a rather different place. Needless to say, this is a very different kind of farm from Spendthrift anyway, typically favoring conservative books (Catholic Boy began with 131 mares) to avoid flooding the market. Besides, as one breeder recently complained to me, it can be demoralizing when the value of your foal’s paternity is diminished when still in utero.

Claiborne has a long history of standing stallions of international reach and Catholic Boy absolutely fits as a Grade I winner on both dirt and turf at three. And it’s worth remembering that he had laid down a very similar marker as a juvenile, impressing in the GII Remsen S. after closing to within two lengths in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

He was also a graded stakes winner at Saratoga in that first campaign, so would seem perfectly entitled to get his stock up and running. The immediate family is solid without being regal, but the first three dams are by highly edifying broodmare influences in Bernardini, Seeking the Gold and Nijinsky, while beyond that you get to the same Argentinian family that gave us La Lorgnette (Val de l’Orne {Fr}), the Canadian champion who produced an extraordinary European talent in Hawk Wing (Woodman).

While entitled to breed a two-turn dirt horse, Catholic Boy can plainly cater to proliferating turf/synthetic opportunities and would merit the kind of enterprise we don’t see enough from European shoppers. Maybe it’s just a case of whether the future arrives in time, but he’s “More Than Ready” for it.

Much the same is true of YOSHIDA (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}–Hilda’s Passion by Canadian Frontier), who gets a clip to $15,000 from $20,000 after entertaining 148 clients at WinStar. His principal service might be to repatriate the line of Sunday Silence, whose breed-shaping impact on turf in Japan duly extends the versatility we associate with the overall Halo brand (not least through WinStar’s own international flagship, the sire of Catholic Boy).

Sure enough, Yoshida crowned a tough and consistent career over three seasons with elite success on both grass and dirt, and was additionally beaten under two lengths both over a straight mile at Royal Ascot and behind Accelerate (Lookin At Lucky) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic.

His page offers a corresponding blend, tracing to a half-sister to Damascus via a granddam by El Prado (Ire). There is rather more quantity than quality in between, and the damsire won’t help in that regard, but something is certainly working: Yoshida’s dam won the GI Ballerina S. by nine lengths and clocked a 1:20.45 track record in the GII Inside Information S. Certainly his own sire is a Thoroughbred of the very highest class, while you can judge his physical allure by a yearling tag of $750,000.

Read part two of Chris McGrath’s Value Sires-First Kentucky Weanlings in Friday’s TDN, with coverage of World of Trouble, Catalina Cruiser, Preservationist, Divisidero, Enticed, Flameaway, Maximus Mischief, Coal Front, Demarchelier, Heart to Heart, Lost Treasure and Qurbaan, plus Chris’s top three on the value podium.

The post KY Value Sires For 2021: First Foals Due: Part I appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

This Side Up: The Elusive Lesson of ‘Can’t Miss’ Sires

He has trademarked the move, his name reliably invoked whenever a horse picks off his rivals with the kind of flair that luminously separates him from the herd. Yet just about the only time I ever saw one glide through an elite field with quite the same extraterrestrial contempt as Arazi (Blushing Groom {Fr}) in the 1991 GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was the following May, at the same track, when that nimbus-among-the-shadows exhibition was reprised along the backstretch by a horse called… Arazi.

His discovery of mortal limitations, both in his second season and then at stud, has become so integral to the Arazi narrative that we tend to forget how he maintained the exquisite illusion until suddenly exchanging the wings of an angel for feet of clay at the top of the stretch in the GI Kentucky Derby. (Or, strictly, knees of clay.)

The whole story, with all the symmetrical and didactic properties of parable, came back to me this week on learning of the death of Congaree–a charismatic creature in his own right, who shouldered nearly alone the burden of his sire’s honor. For even Arazi’s decline on the track could not prepare us for the anti-climax of a stud career that took him ever more forlornly from Newmarket to Kentucky, Japan and even Switzerland.

Congaree, in turn, proved a disappointing stallion. Between Kentucky, New York and Texas, he mustered just 13 stakes winners. That was still two more than dad. Hardly the dividends anticipated from horses packaging so many attributes that any right-thinking breeder would seek to replicate. Congaree, remember, was in training for five seasons; he contested 22 consecutive graded stakes, winning five Grade Is besides placing in two Classics; and his 1:33.11 in the first of consecutive wins in the GI Cigar Mile (a unique distinction) was the fastest dirt mile of 2002.

Congaree at Del Mar in 2003 | Horsephotos

It so happens that his loss coincided with my resumption of an annual ritual: a comprehensive survey of the Kentucky stallion market, which we began yesterday and today with newcomers for 2021.

While their track achievements will clearly govern both quality and quantity in their opening books, in principle these horses have all been brought back to a new starting gate. The world is at their feet, each and every one launched with impassioned conviction by farms across the Bluegrass. And while the promotional material sometimes succeeds in stirring only a wholesome scepticism, you always retain in the back of your mind the way Into Mischief or Tapit looked when they first arrived at stud.

Assessing new stallions, some people are credulous enough to buy into ostensibly sophisticated predictive tools. But most horsemen know these shortcuts for what they are. All you can do, at the outset, is weigh the evidence with due vigilance on behalf of the breed. That might not always get you aboard the elevator on the ground floor. But it’s better to wait for more tangible evidence, from early stock and runners, than to corral huge books of mares for a new stallion that happens to claim a superficial resemblance to some commercial template.

My instinct, for instance, is that the entire European gene pool will ultimately forfeit its present strength–easily measurable, on turf at any rate, by the recent success of imports to America, whether from the yearling sales or the racetrack–by the opportunist recycling of garbage that catches a plausible glister from a passing sunbeam, and is duly presented as sharing the same, immanent glow of some authentically potent predecessor.

North America’s current top sire, Into Mischief | David Coyle

In Britain and Ireland, especially, the most marginal accomplishment in juvenile sprints has become an unthinking formula for the siphoning of mares, literally in their thousands, away from alternatives with at least some eligibility to produce a Classic racehorse. The result is a virtual Classic monopoly for the same blood, often concentrated in the same hands; and a ticking time bomb that will eventually pulverise the European breed to the point that its sharpest horsemen will belatedly recognize a cue for speed-carrying American blood, much as happened with the Northern Dancer dynasty.

On both sides of the ocean, unexpected success for a stallion can launch phony imitations by the dozen. Personally, however naively, I prefer to adhere to the time-honored precepts of pedigree, physique and performance. But even the few stallions that unhesitatingly tick all three boxes bring no guarantees.

Arazi lacked size, of course, but that didn’t stop his sire Blushing Groom (Fr) nor his damsire Northern Dancer. There was also a conformation issue, judging from that notorious knee surgery the winter after the Breeders’ Cup. Yet it still seemed as though appropriate matings could not fail to draw out the seams of gold in his pedigree.

In counterweight to his damsire, Arazi’s top line took the other (Nasrullah) highway to Nearco. There were other striking echoes within his family tree: Native Dancer figured both through Northern Dancer’s mother Natalma and Arazi’s third dam, who was by Raise a Native; while there was a variegating top-and-bottom footprint for Wild Risk (Fr), as damsire of Blushing Groom and grandsire of Arazi’s second dam, who was by Le Fabuleux (Fr).

Wild Risk apart, Arazi’s phenomenal talent could not have had a more obvious genetic bedrock: not least through his second dam, whose kinship to many classy performers and producers was crowned by her sibling Ajdal (Northern Dancer), another highly flamboyant European champion.

Northern Dancer | Tony Leonard

Ajdal, the most expensive yearling buyback in history before his private acquisition by Sheikh Mohammed, certainly went to stud lavishly equipped with the three P’s. (Performance was briefly an issue, until he famously dropped from 12 furlongs at Epsom to six in the G1 July Cup)! Sadly, he shattered a leg after a single season at stud, which in those days still translated into just 35 foals. Remarkably, three daughters would go on to produce Group 1 winners.

Congaree, for his part, did have a curious pedigree, loading Northern Dancer 3×3 through his forgotten damsire Mari’s Book. But anyone who claims that Arazi’s failure was predictable to anyone with the right software is peddling snake oil.

I prefer to view him as another of those lessons in humility so routinely handed out by the Thoroughbred. Ultimately, after all, we’re talking about flesh and blood. Happily, in fact, we are still doing so–even as the venerable creature approaches his 32nd birthday. In retirement Arazi has enjoyed exemplary care at Stockwell Farm in Australia, still adored for a performance far more dramatic than anything authored even by Frankel (GB) (Galileo {Ire}), say, with his brutal, pour-it-on style; but essentially given the same respect and attention as we owe to any of these animals that so absorb our dreams, our toil, our craft–animals of uniform nobility, wherever they might rank in performance.

The three P’s need to work out often enough to keep our business viable; to keep the rich guy sticking up his hand for seven-figure yearlings at Keeneland or Saratoga. But actually it’s their scrambling that makes the whole game function. So long as outcomes sometimes remain unaccountable, whether in success or failure, then we’ve all got half a chance.

The post This Side Up: The Elusive Lesson of ‘Can’t Miss’ Sires appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post