Chris McGrath | Horse Racing Free Tips

Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Sophomores–Part II

This is the second half of the latest instalment in our ongoing survey of covering options for the new breeding season. The first part can be read here.

UPSTART (Flatter–Party Silks, by Touch Gold) was cleverly named and I think him a very plausible type, likely to rise pretty quickly through the ranks. Certainly there were more than enough “nouveaux riches” among his first juveniles–only Not This Time exceeded his 19 winners (from 54 starters)–for him to be pegged at $10,000 by Airdrie. His principal earner was Reinvestment Risk, who twice chased home speedball Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music) in Grade Is after romping on debut at Saratoga, but a measure of what may be coming down the tracks was the 12-length debut success of Manor House at Laurel just before Christmas.

Remember Upstart himself was multiple Grade I-placed at two, three and four, so expect him to keep consolidating from an opening book of 146 and in the process to ride out a dip in numbers since to 86 and then just 38. Very auspiciously, his first yearlings (whose $63,608 average exceeded six times his fee) prompted renewed traffic last spring to 90 mares. And actually his second crop maintained value and demand far better than most, 41 of 47 selling for another very fertile yield, relatively speaking, at $45,159. In the meantime he had also excelled in a challenging 2-year-old market, his $104,400 average giving him virtual parity with a far more expensive pair in Nyquist and Frosted.

There’s no mistaking professional enthusiasm for Upstart’s stock, physically. But the key is that the speed shown by his earlier types is just a foundation; they’re bred and built to stretch, too. I can’t imagine that Flatter has had another juvenile clock a triple-digit Beyer, and there’s a really wholesome depth and balance to his pedigree.

His dam, a half-sister to a Grade II winner, is by Touch Gold–who combines distaff legends Deputy Minister and Buckpasser. This just looks so good opposite the Secretariat-Buckpasser combination behind Weekend Surprise, mother of Flatter’s sire A.P. Indy.

Speightster | PM Photos

One at the same fee who did even better in terms of holding the value of his second crop was SPEIGHTSTER (Speightstown–Dance Swiftly, by Danzig), no mean achievement given the sheer volume he had generated at WinStar.

Having opened up with a $63,680 dividend, virtually identical with Upstart, for 71 yearlings sold from no fewer than 97 offered in his first crop, Speightster managed $59,153 for 43 of 58 offered this time round. That was sufficient to secure fifth in the averages, and represents a quite remarkable vote of confidence after a solid 15 winners from 63 starters. A couple of those scored at black-type level, though perhaps nothing Speightster has done so far quite equalled the splash of his $1.1 million son at OBS in the summer.

His profile contrasts sharply with that of Upstart, having blitzed his first three (sophomore maiden/allowance/GIII Dwyer) before derailing on only his fourth start. That may or may not have been the tip of an iceberg, but the pedigree could hardly have been more auspicious. What a frisson, nowadays, just to see a dam by Danzig–never mind one who is sister to Dance Smartly and half-sister to Smart Strike. This is obviously one of the great Canadian dynasties, while a physical resemblance to his farm’s venerable patriarch can only aid Speightster’s cause in contesting the succession. He has relentless numbers behind him, too, having opened with books of 174, 150, 124 and 152, so one way or another there’s a lot of belief out there.

Air Force Blue | Coolmore

His buoyancy offers a curious contrast with another who prizes Danzig in the second generation. The first juveniles of AIR FORCE BLUE (War Front–Chatham, by Maria’s Mon) performed to a very similar level–in fact more winners from fewer runners (17 from 46), albeit just couldn’t crack a stakes win–but who suffered quite a slide in the value of his second crop of yearlings: his 34 sales (of 50) this time round realizing $46,145, down from the $98,230 (albeit for only 44 sold of 73 into the ring) on his sales debut.

One obvious difference is that Ashford started him at $25,000, but he has taken repeated trims and is now down to $10,000. Another is that Air Force Blue failed to go on after a sensational juvenile career, so we’ll now be looking for him to draw on his pedigree to keep his stock progressing with maturity. That’s certainly possible: his second dam is full-sister to Flanders (Seeking the Gold), a champion herself and dam of another in Surfside (Seattle Slew), while copper-bottomed influences seed his entire family tree. But you suspect the biggest hesitation has been a reputation made on turf, such a culpable prejudice in the commercial market.

In fact nine of his 17 winners scored on dirt, and this horse deserves a fresh chance at such a friendly fee. He was a genuinely top-class juvenile for Ballydoyle and it looks a really positive sign that the conveyor belt picked up again last spring when opening books of 153, 106 and 90 were followed by one of 135.

Exaggerator | Sarah Andrew

Nobody threw numbers at the track in the same volume as EXAGGERATOR (Curlin–Dawn Raid, by Vindication), so 14 winners from as many as 69 starters has to go down as pretty tepid. As many as five, however, managed a stakes podium. Having launched at WinStar off $30,000, he housed 63 of 103 yearlings in his first crop for $85,746 but it proved tough going for his 76 into the ring this time, 56 processed at just $25,982. He has taken a third consecutive cut, to $15,000, but will maintain the numbers after a fourth book of 104, having opened with 162, 163 and 129.

If this is the kind of industrial process that makes some of us uncomfortable, then Exaggerator did at least demonstrate some old-school wares in banking $3.6 million through 15 starts in 16 months, actually bookending his career in the same races as Nyquist. The pair also exchanged verdicts in the Derby and Preakness, one of three Grade I prizes won by an admirable racehorse of good Canadian family. You’d expect Exaggerator’s stock to keep thriving, then, as and when finding their stride.

The same farm launched TOURIST (Tiznow–Unbridled Melody, by Unbridled’s Song) at $12,500 but has had to make repeated cuts, now to $5,000, after failing to find any commercial traction with his first two crops: the first realized $27,996 for 41 sales (of 58 offered) and this time round he was down to $14,533 for 16 of 23. With his books dwindling–134, 102, 70 and 60–he needs his stock to stick to the program, having himself improved relentlessly through four campaigns until ultimately shocking Tepin (Bernstein) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile in a race-record 1:31.71. He laid a feasible base with 13 winners from 43 starters, and the market’s distaste for turf meant that he would always be a longer-term project.

Flintshire | Louise Reinagel

Speaking of grass, you can only despair that a horse as accomplished as FLINTSHIRE (GB) (Dansili {GB}–Dance Routine {GB}, by Sadler’s Wells) should struggle for patronage in Kentucky. Hill ‘n’ Dale at Xalapa now offers him at $10,000, half his opening fee, after his fourth book sank to just 38. Nobody could be surprised, given his own template, that he mustered only half a dozen winners from his first 36 juveniles. But the fact is that anyone far-sighted enough to support him now will be able to ride the wave as his strong early support from an ownership group including Juddmonte plays out (opened with 121, 89 and 69) in his maturing stock.

It’s tiresome to hear people talk so reverently about expanding turf opportunities, or the importance of soundness, when they don’t seem to respect even this nugget from the Juddmonte program: by one of the best-bred stallions in Europe out of a Classic-placed mare, he became its richest-ever graduate as a five-time Grade/Group I winner of $9.5 million (also dual Arc runner-up) whose turn of foot was measured at :44.56 for his closing half-mile in the GI Manhattan. His first crop of yearlings had fared reasonably well, clearing as many as 45 of 52 at $46,686, but 14 of 25 this time round scraped together a yield of $19,552. But you reap what you sow and if this industry can only make fast, precocious dirt horses pay, it will someday learn to regret it.

Mshawish | Taylor Made

Turf is only one of the strings to the bow of MSHAWISH (Medaglia d’Oro–Thunder Bayou, by Thunder Gulch), fourth of 19 in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club before being imported to win Grade Is, on both surfaces, at five and six. He has taken another cut at Taylor Made, now down to $7,500 from an opening $20,000, despite mustering a solid 13 winners from 42 starters.

That reflects the usual dwindling books (just 40 mares last spring, down from 117, 73 and 68) and a dip by his second crop of yearlings to an average $16,515, for 14 of 19 sold, down from $39,338 for 42 sales from 56 first time round. But he remains a very wholesome option with his seven consecutive triple-digit Beyers and average earnings of $100,000 per start through 24 races. His versatility is not just down to his sire, with a dam inbred 3×3 to Storm Bird; while his granddam is a half-sister to the mother of champion Halfbridled (Unbridled). As a longer play, still every chance.

The Albaugh Family team, which brought us Not This Time, offers a value alternative by the same sire in BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway–Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) at Spendthrift. He made quite an impression with his first juveniles: only half a dozen winners (from 29 starters) but they were good ones: two won at stakes level and four made the podium in graded stakes, notably GIII Iroquois S. winner Sittin On Go and GI Starlet S. runner-up Kalypso, who has since won the GII Santa Ynez S. on the third day of her sophomore career.

Like Not This Time, he extends a regal bottom line: his fourth dam, indeed, is by Dr. Fager out of a Bold Ruler half-sister to Secretariat’s dam Somethingroyal. His second dam was Grade I-placed and Brody’s Cause himself won Grade I races at two and three and, while he didn’t last the course, had established himself among the best of his generation and looks a bet to nothing now that he is down to $5,000 from an opening $12,500. He does have some weight of numbers, too, with initial books of 101 and 110 before dipping to 63 and 49. After a promising debut at the sales (33 sold of 51 yearlings at $50,166), he was another to struggle with his second crop (27 sold of 34 at $25,596) but he is definitely, definitely still in the game–and a viable sanctuary for those priced out of Not This Time.

Hit It a Bomb | Spendthrift

On the same farm, HIT IT A BOMB (War Front–Liscanna {Ire}, by Sadler’s Wells) has given himself a squeak at the same fee–not just with GII Best Pal winner Weston among his handful of winners, but also with a startling $330,000 colt at Fasig-Tipton in September. That boosted his second-crop average to $47,916 for a dozen sold of 15, but even a $23,500 median was solid after 15 in his first crop averaged $30,153 (median $13,000).

These are hardly the industrial numbers familiar on this farm but actually he rallied to 47 mares last spring from a third book of just 20, after opening with 48 and 49. It’s all chlorophyll, obviously, but the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner is brother to another juvenile Group 1 scorer from a classy family.

Another down to the bottom tier at Spendthrift is CINCO CHARLIE (Indian Charlie–Ten Halos, by Marquetry), though he managed no fewer than 14 winners from just 31 starters, including one at stakes level. He also made quite a stir with a $200,000 filly at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Old Sale, albeit seven second-crop yearlings (from 10 into the ring) realized just $6,600 down from $20,944 (for 19 of 26) first time round. Cinco Charlie did match his precocity (GIII Bashford Manor S. second time out) with hardiness, racking up seven black-type wins in 18 starts, so don’t rule out farther progress; while his second dam is by none other than Halo.

We know to expect interesting stallions at Crestwood and TEXAS RED (Afleet Alex–Ramatuelle {Chi}, by Jeune Homme), rather wonderfully, has earned a hike in fee to $10,000 from $7,500 after pulling GII Sorrento S. winner My Girl Red out of his hat. She was among eight scorers from just 19 starters.

Texas Red will have to ride out a couple of quieter years but opening books of 81 and 67 give scope for consolidation and he was, after all, a brilliant runner. His 104 Beyer romping at the Breeders’ Cup was backed up in an interrupted sophomore campaign, beating Frosted in the GII Jim Dandy besides running a top-class sprinter in Lord Nelson (Pulpit) to a neck over seven furlongs. A classy South American family also makes him a very accommodating outcross.

Firing Line | Crestwood

Studmate FIRING LINE (Line of David–Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) works from a narrow base but had four winners from his 13 starters. He had sold 20 of 21 yearlings in his first crop, including a colt and filly that each made six figures, while one of his daughters soared to $210,000 at OBS in June. If things were quieter for his yearlings this time round, Firing Line retains plenty of interest on performance, denied a Grade I at two only by a nose and the Derby itself only by a Triple Crown winner; and also on pedigree, his dam a Grade I-placed sibling to the mothers of two Grade I-winning milers, their line extending to matriarchs Kamar (Key to the Mint) and Square Angel (Quadrangle).

Another to give striking encouragement from a small base is TAMARKUZ (Speightstown–Without You Babe, by Lemon Drop Kid) at Shadwell. From just 14 runners, he had five winners including GIII Bob Hope S. winner Red Flag and, though lacking numbers (third book was highest at 57), might merit a roll of the dice at $7,500 from an opening $12,500.

Having bowed out beating the next two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the GI Dirt Mile, Tamarkuz is out of a half-sister to two GI Belmont S. runners-up who has also produced a Group 1 miler in Without Parole (GB) (Frankel {GB}). You have to love a second dam by Storm Bird opposite his son Storm Cat as Speightstown’s damsire, and the maternal line tapers to some resonant names.

Wins from two to six suggest that his stock will keep flying the flag with maturity; and he also showed versatility in terms of surface. Though his first yearlings excelled, moving on 18 of 20 yearlings at $68,222, a handful of his second crop made no money to speak of. But one of only four hips at the 2-year-old sales made $160,000, and Tamarkuz should definitely interest anyone out there who might want to breed an actual racehorse for a small fee.

Beating Tamarkuz for the GII Kelso H. in 1:32.9 is the poster achievement for ANCHOR DOWN (Tapit–Successful Outlook, by Orientate), now $5,000 from an opening $10,000 at Gainesway. Eight winners from 18 runners was a very good start, given his small books, and he’s a half-brother to GI Test S. winner Sweet Lulu (Mr. Greeley). His sale yields are pretty standard for this level, but it should be noted that his clearance rate for both crops of yearlings were extremely high and he also went down well at the 2-year-old sales, with a $270,000 colt and $200,000 filly. Competition is obviously tough among heirs to the farm’s champion but less so at this level.

There are a handful of others in this intake whose numbers are too precarious to repay much dredging. But the likes of BIG BLUE KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy–Spent Gold, by Unaccounted For) and PRODUCER (GB) (Dutch Art {GB}–River Saint, by Irish River {Fr}) at Calumet, or V. E. DAY (English Channel–California Sunset, by Deputy Minister) at Buck Pond Farm, were always going to be longer-term projects and so remain entitled to repay perseverance.

And we should highlight a conspicuous achievement apiece by three who share the same, great damsire: $2,500 cover OPTIMIZER (English Channel–Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) at Calumet, for pulling a $190,000 filly out of his hat at Keeneland in September; IRONICUS (Distorted Humor–Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy) for coming up with an unbeaten stakes winner from his small footprint from Claiborne at $5,000; and PROTONICO (Giant’s Causeway–Alpha Spirit, by A.P. Indy), at the same fee, for a potentially game-changing start to 2021.

A rootless start to his stud career can hardly have helped his cause. Yet his three winners from eight starters include Medina Spirit, a $1,000 yearling who closed to within a length of the Derby favorite in the GIII Sham S. Protonico’s second dam is Chilean Horse of the Year and Grade I winner Wild Spirit (Chi) (Hussonet), and a half-length miss in the GI Clark H. left him cents short of millionaire status. Medina Spirit is the kind of flagship that would be trumpeted from the rooftops by farms who throw 200 mares at rookie stallions, so to come up with this dude from an opening book of 34 entitles Castleton Lyons to hope that he could yet claw his way from the back lanes to the highway.

That’s the kind of frayed highwire all these horses are walking now. And while many will lose their footing, the great thing is that some of them are suddenly going to break into a run.

CHRIS McGRATH’S VALUE PODIUM
Gold: Frosted ($25,000, Darley)
A champion at the right distance, out of a Deputy Minister mare, and no less likely to succeed now than when he was $50,000.
Silver: Upstart ($10,000, Airdrie)
His record and pedigree guarantee that a fine start by his juveniles is only the beginning.
Bronze: Speightster ($10,000, WinStar)
A lot of people seem adamant that he’s about to take off.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Sophomores–Part II appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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This Side Up: A Channel of American Merit

It doesn’t make me mad anymore. Maybe it’s just the idealism of youth ebbing away. But I have also begun to understand the virtue of markets. If people want to breed to unproven stallions, that’s their prerogative. I can always buy a mare, send her to a sire of runners, and see y’all in the starting gate. If I’m right, the odds are in my favor; I get value from the market. And if I’m wrong, well, no need to be angry.

Even in setting all that aside, however, it’s been hard to resist another source of annual dismay in compiling our midwinter survey of covering options in Kentucky. And that’s the perennial gap between words and deeds when it comes to turf horses.

Everyone talks a good game these days about the expanding grass program in the U.S. They note the evolving role of synthetics, too, stressing the importance these surfaces may have in preserving our sport from the misapprehensions of welfare campaigners.

And then they go to a horse sale, and do their utmost to make it impossible to stand a turf stallion in Kentucky.

Now don’t get me wrong. After all, I’m constantly berating European breeders for insularity regarding the kind of American dirt prowess that invigorated their gene pool when the founders of Coolmore tapped into Northern Dancer. I’m certain that the best way to break the same empire’s Epsom hegemony, now, would be to repeat the trick and use American stallions that carried dirt speed through Classic distances.

But the other side of the coin is that American breeders also need more adventure. Regeneration should be reciprocal. We can’t get enough Uncle Mo? Well, thank goodness Spendthrift shipped over Caro (Fr). Stroll through the Claiborne cemetery, equally, and ask yourself whether the iconic farm would have left the same imprint on the breed without importing Nasrullah (Caro’s great-grandsire), Blenheim II, Sir Gallahad III and company.

English Channel winning the 2007 Breeders’ Cup Turf | Sarah Andrew

Yet it seems nearly impossible to get sustainable commercial respect for the few stallions making the same journey today; nor for the indigenous turf stallion who offers similar acceleration, stamina and durability.

Today, then, I would just like to celebrate a significant landmark in the career of English Channel.

Whatever else he may be, Calumet’s 19-year-old son of Smart Strike is not a commercial stallion. Only 14 of his yearlings even bothered with the sales ring in 2020, of which a dozen sold for an average of $27,671. This placed him at No. 92 in the national table, and represented zero yield on a covering fee–$27,500 for 2021–that presumably expresses his value to end users instead.

Because these have long known him as a quiet achiever. If Ken Ramsey has been rightly incensed by a lack of commercial recognition for Kitten’s Joy, whose stature as a turf sire has been measured by two general sires’ championships, then chew on this: English Channel matches that Titan of their kind, stride for stride, in all indices. Working from half as many foals (757 across 10 crops, compared with 1,573 named foals across 12 for Kitten’s Joy), English Channel has earned almost precisely the same per starter ($72,083 plays $72,773); and his percentages stack up almost eerily whether in black-type winners (7.1% for English Channel against 6.5%); black-type horses (11.5% against 11.7%); graded stakes winners (3.7% against 3.1%); graded stakes performers (6.3% against 6.1%); Grade I winners (1.2% against 0.9%); and Grade I horses (tied at 2.1%).

This comparison, to be clear, is intended only to exalt English Channel–and not to belittle Kitten’s Joy, whose neglect by most elite European breeders I have repeatedly rebuked in these columns. But it is only right, given this parity of performance, to record that English Channel has just been crowned champion turf stallion by North American earnings (also by North American/European purses; ditto Northern Hemisphere) for the first time.

Until the posthumous championship of Giant’s Causeway last year, courtesy of Bricks and Mortar, this title had been a six-year lock for Kitten’s Joy. So let’s give English Channel his day in the sun, and congratulate Calumet for their success–in this instance, at least!–in a conspicuous determination to stand up for their principles against the tide.

Calumet Farm | Sarah Andrew

Under its present ownership this historic farm has assembled a stallion roster that verges, in commercial terms, on eccentricity. But it is unmistakably a repository for precisely those genetic assets most under threat in the American breed, and future generations may yet look back and decide that Calumet was ahead of its time. The twin foundations of the roster appear to be proper, deeply-rooted Classic pedigrees and/or robust constitution.

I asked Eddie Kane, its general manager, whether the soundness that is one of English Channel’s calling cards makes him a suitable flagship for what Calumet is trying to do. “The team at Calumet hopes the industry’s new focus against illegal medications and practices will further shift breeders from a short-term mentality towards a more economically sustainable focus on soundness and longevity,” he replied. “English Channel’s trademarks are consistency, durability and longevity. In terms of racing value, he is constantly on or near the top.”

The obvious problem is that precisely those assets many of us consider most critical to the breed have somehow become the least commercial. How can the industry achieve a higher commercial premium for the kind of durability and stamina offered by English Channel?

“We wish we knew the answer to this one,” says Kane. “It seems many are content with the process of pushing 2- and early 3-year-olds, retiring them to stud, pumping up their first couple crops in the sales ring and then moving on. We attempt to support our stallions in the shed and stick with them. We think this benefits our breeders in the long run.”

Kane recognizes that other stud farms do this, too. But he finds it no easier to solve similar challenges about the undervaluing of grass horses. How do we get people to stop just talking the talk, and actually go to the sale ring and make it commercially viable breeding to turf stallions?

English Channel’s Travers winner V. E. Day | Lauren King

“Another very tough question,” he admits. “It is largely impacted by purses. NYRA’s 3-year-old program was a positive move in that direction. The prestige in European racing lies with turf. Here it is dirt. Many prioritize the Derby, the Triple Crown, etc. If English Channel, with six Grade I wins and the race record of his offspring, was all dirt, he would command three to four times the stud fee. You can’t say it’s right or wrong: it is just the reality of our market, the economics and the perception of prestige associated with certain races and titles.”

Yet while everyone can see major and ongoing improvement in earning potential for turf horses in North America, that is simply not being reflected in the sales ring. Moreover, those big players who are targeting such opportunities are instead doing their shopping in Europe. And doing so successfully, for now. But they must be wary of importing a ticking time bomb from the European gene pool, which is increasingly divided between a Classic bloodline that’s approaching saturation and upgraded cheap speed that will never sustain a Classic agenda.

Maybe they’ve been spending too much time with the English agent who so exasperated me when blithely announcing that he never goes to Keeneland because American breeders are obsessed with speed. If that gentleman were remotely competent to spend the funds of his wealthy patrons, he would understand that–for all the deficiencies of the American market–two-turn stallions here actually achieve far more “commercial” traction than do those of Classic profile in his domestic one. (I know, I know: getting mad again…)

The key, as I say, is that reciprocal transfusion. And if European breeders are nowadays too myopic to risk dirt blood, perhaps they should at least be a little more receptive to American turf stallions. They will certainly get value. David Redvers needed just $160,000 to buy a European champion by Kitten’s Joy, Roaring Lion, at Keeneland September in 2016. Yet European breeders remained so obtuse that he was able to return to the same sale two years later and find Classic winner Kameko, by the same sire, for $90,000.

It was only in 2018 that Kitten’s Joy was given a fresh start at Hill ‘n’ Dale, Ramsey having threatened to stand him in Europe if he didn’t get more respect. And I reckon all concerned with the horse would cheerfully trade the turf crown lost to English Channel for the striking improvement in the averages achieved by his first yearlings bred under a new regime. In a market meanwhile buffeted by the pandemic, Kitten’s Joy nonetheless advanced his 2020 yearling average to $139,505 from $86,367, elevating him from No. 33 to No. 17 in the table. (Remember these were also conceived at a more sporting fee, Hill ‘n’ Dale having immediately cut him to $60,000 from $100,000.)

That feels like a very wholesome development. The bigger picture, however, remains depressing. Flintshire (GB) (Dansili {GB}), for instance, has depended largely on support by his partnership to get started at the same farm. I am convinced that his first books will produce runners, but it looks like he won’t be “commercial” any time soon.

As I said at the outset, however, neglect spells opportunity. And perhaps there might yet be Europeans far-sighted enough to try English Channel. As it happens, that was one of the aspirations mentioned by Kane, when asked how the horse could still round off his resume.

“Well, there are a few things actually,” he says. “As a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner, one or more of his offspring repeating that accomplishment would be an important achievement. Also we feel a greater presence in European racing would be fruitful. And finally, we believe he is underrepresented on the dirt, as would be indicated by his sire Smart Strike, his [paternal] half-brother Curlin and offspring such as Travers winner V.E. Day, as well as the multiple graded stakes winner Optimizer who was the only 3-year-old of his crop to run in all three legs of the Triple Crown.”

Heart to Heart winning Keeneland’s Maker’s 46 Mile, one of two GI wins for the son of English Channel in 2018 | Coady

That’s another drum I’m always beating: the unsuspected versatility of horses whose reputation as specialists, because never stretched, becomes self-fulfilling. Take English Channel’s son Heart to Heart, at Crestwood: don’t tell me that 10 wire-to-wire stakes wins wouldn’t parlay into dirt speed. As it is, he’s a not a bad poster boy for his sire, with graded stakes wins five seasons running and 18 triple-digit Beyers. And his first two dams are by sons of Deputy Minister and, oh yes, Caro.

Few European breeders will even have heard of him. Nor would they necessarily think English Channel worth the journey if popping over the road from Blue Grass Airport to inspect him. But there’s no pleasing some people: they will then complain that dirt stallions are all too big and square.

“Biggest is not necessarily best, if so we would grade them by weight and height,” Kane remarks. “We feel he has the ideal size with balance and athleticism. He crosses well with almost any mare.”

Kane notes that English Channel has a particularly good record with daughters of Kitten’s Joy, with 14 winners from 16 starters including four at graded stakes level. That’s fun to see, because they aren’t just business rivals. They are also companions in arms; a mutual channel for the good stuff.

The post This Side Up: A Channel of American Merit appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Juveniles–Part I

And so we come to the group standing on the brink. The group facing the moment of truth, when their most precocious stock enters the gate and offers some initial indication as to their competence for the task for which, ostensibly at least, they were bred.

As such, this should perhaps be the moment we double down. That’s what we would do, at any rate, if we had real faith in the choices we have made for our mares. If we have selected their mates well, then people will be wanting more of the same at the 2023 yearling sales–and we can hope to be rewarded for meeting increased demand with what tends to be diminished supply.

As it is, the imminent exposure of young stallions’ “commercial” credentials to the unsparing examination of the racetrack instead prompts most breeders to flee in terror, sending their mares to those safely unproven rookies who have replaced them on the conveyor belt.

Their logic is perfectly coherent. The whole premise of backing an unproven new stallion is that he will not have been tested by the time you take your yearling to market. And the value of 2021 covers is bound to appear very different, one way or another, in the 2023 sales ring: these sires will by then have a third crop of juveniles on the track, and their slower-maturing, two-turn types will also have shown their hand. As I say, that should actually be an advantage…if, that is, we really believe that we might be catching a wave. But I guess very few breeders can afford the risk of trusting their own opinions to that extent.

Even at the best of times, then, you could expect farms to help this group over the imminent bump in the road. In the prevailing environment, with fee cuts being made across so many rosters, there will surely be particularly good value to be found among stallions whose abrupt loss of commercial traction is every bit as capricious as the hectic subscription of their debut books. After all, those best equipped to sire the type of Thoroughbred we should covet most–namely, one that can run a second turn on the first Saturday in May–will hardly disclose their full potential even now their first crop is being broken and trained.

Nor, as we noted of the weanling market in the previous instalment of this series, can we put too much faith in the reception of these youngsters at the sales. Yes, professional horsemen have at least had the chance to draw some inferences from living, breathing stock presented to their inspection. Moreover, they have been able to assess a much wider sample. Much as with weanling averages, however, those rare occasions when the market challenges the premium implied in stallion fees–whether for better or worse–do not tend to work out very reliably.

As with his weanlings, for instance, the most conspicuous disappointment of the 2018 yearling market, relative to his opening fee, was Constitution. From much the biggest offering of the intake, 98 yearlings, his average sale could not match those of Carpe Diem, Bayern, Tonalist and Lea, to name four whose fees have slipped even as Constitution has meanwhile soared from $25,000 to $85,000.

Admittedly, the yearling market “found” Cairo Prince the year before, elevating animals he had conceived at $10,000 to second place in the averages. But he was sandwiched between two horses whose returns slavishly obeyed the assumptions invited by their fees: Will Take Charge was top, having started out at a class-high $30,000; and Verrazano was third, having similarly started higher than almost all the rest at $22,500. Those two are respectively now down to $5,000 and Brazil.

Once again, then, let’s be wary of drawing too many conclusions, whether positive or negative, from the “performance” at the yearling sales of those stallions who will launch their first runners in 2021.

Sadly, of course, the most expensive recruit of the intake is no longer with us. The tragic loss of Arrogate (Unbridled’s Song) leaves GUN RUNNER (Candy Ride {Arg}–Quiet Giant by Giant’s Causeway) as its outstanding prospect after starting out at Three Chimneys as Horse of the Year at $70,000.

He gets a generous clip to $50,000 to keep the door revolving. Opening books of 171 and 166 struck a balance between numerical opportunity without totally inundating the market, and he maintained numbers last spring at 156. Of 71 yearlings into the ring, he found a new home for 46 at a class-high $246,413.

That has to go down as a very solid start and, while you can’t expect a horse that reached his peak at four to be siring sprint winners at Keeneland in April, nor should we forget how he came to the boil at the Fair Grounds before running third to Nyquist (Uncle Mo) in the GI Kentucky Derby. It spoke well of his substance that he was still on the go in late November, winning the GI Clark H.; and he emerged much stronger than did Arrogate from their clash in the desert the following spring, going on an unbeaten spree of five Grade Is.

The appeal to breeders, aside from his class and constitution, was that it all had such an obvious source: his dam is a Grade II-winning half-sister to another Horse of the Year in Saint Liam (Saint Ballado) with a plenty of supporting quality close up. In broader brushstrokes, his page entwines two branches of the Fappiano dynasty, both away from the Unbridled highway: obviously he extends the line through Candy Ride, but he also brings in Fappiano’s son Quiet American (with his dynamic genetics) as sire of his second dam.

All told, Gun Runner looks abundantly qualified to build on whatever promise he can show in what will, after all, only be his opening skirmishes.

Candy Ride’s growing stature as a sire of sires helped another of his sons emerge as the standout performer of the intake at the yearling sales. Yes, we’ve urged circumspection about the market’s verdict, but Claiborne priced MASTERY (Candy Ride {Arg}–Steady Course by Old Trieste) very fairly at $25,000 and, being no less reliable in the conservative management of his books (139/143/138), they have given their clients a platform for a most rewarding debut at the sales.

Mastery was gold on our “value podium” last year and it feels very hard to dislodge him after he sold as many as 64 of 79 yearlings into the ring at a knockout yield of $129,421–surpassed only by Gun Runner and Arrogate–with mares commensurate with their fees.

There’s no doubting the terrific natural talent exhibited by Mastery in a career that contrasted poignantly with that of the teak Gun Runner, derailed as he was in the very act of announcing himself the horse to beat in the Derby. It plainly serves his cause, commercially, that he was a seven-length Grade I winner at two, but his pedigree underpins his appeal to all breeding agendas, including any that might be disposed to retain a filly.

For his dam is a three-parts sister to the Pennsylvania stalwart Jump Start, and their mother, in turn, is by one broodmare sire legend (Storm Cat) out of a full-sister to another in Miswaki. You couldn’t ask for better seeding of the bottom line, once you get past a dam by one of A.P. Indy’s less fashionable sons: Storm Cat, Mr. Prospector, Buckpasser, Princequillo, Nasrullah. With looks to match, Mastery demands fidelity even among those generally inclined to back off stallions at this precarious stage in their careers. It just feels like the force is with him.

The other stallion to break six figures with his yearling average was PRACTICAL JOKE (Into Mischief–Halo Humor by Distorted Humor), who parlayed a $30,000 opening fee at Ashford into 74 sales (of 92 offered) at $120,243.

This was another Grade I winner at two, in both the Champagne and Hopeful. He stretched out for fifth in the GI Kentucky Derby, but reiterated that Into Mischief speed was his trademark when dropping back for his sophomore Grade I in the H. Allen Jerkens S.

No less than Mastery, Practical Joke has conformed to the standard formula of his host farm with no fewer than 220 mares in his first book and 200 in his second. He maintained turnover with another 188 guests last spring, so he certainly has numbers behind him. That brings its customary risks, but these are acknowledged by consecutive cuts to $25,000 last year and $22,500 this time round.

We know that the usual rules don’t apply to Into Mischief, whose promising start as a sire of sires doubtless contributed (along with his own physical allure) to the popularity of Practical Joke at the sales. But it must be acknowledged that the champion sire’s alchemical powers are well demonstrated by his ability to get such a proficient racehorse from a family as plain as this one.

Practical Joke was well held in third when CLASSIC EMPIRE (Pioneerof the Nile–Sambuca Classica by Cat Thief) just denied Not This Time the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The runner-up has set high standards in their new career and Classic Empire, having joined Practical Joke at Ashford, looks pretty eligible to meet them.

He consolidated his 2-year-old championship in the GI Arkansas Derby, and was only denied the GI Preakness by the head of Cloud Computing (Maclean’s Music). Unfortunately, that proved to be his final appearance, but there’s a beguiling shape to his page: rather like Mastery, his dam is by one of the less glamorous sons of an iconic broodmare sire but the next three dams are by Miswaki, Hoist The Flag and Princequillo–and in this neighborhood it becomes an ancestry shared with Harlan’s Holiday, Boldnesian and Ride the Rails. The second dam was Grade I-placed, so there’s plenty to be working on here.

Nonetheless, Classic Empire has just taken his fourth consecutive cut, now half his opening fee at $17,500. Respite on the fee helped him maintain 122 mares last spring after an opening book of 185 had slipped to 104 in his second year. That big first crop obviously produced plenty of traffic into the ring, with 92 yearlings offered, and he rehoused 66 of them at $89,613. Like all these stallions, he’s at a crossroads now, but recycling his juvenile prowess would certainly keep him in the game.

Starting alongside Practical Joke and Classic Empire at Ashford, CUPID (Tapit–Pretty ‘N Smart by Beau Genius) corralled a staggering 223 mares in his debut book. No less breathtaking, however, was his giddy descent to just 53 mares the following year. I don’t know which of these numbers is more absurd. There’s no way he had done anything like enough to earn a book surpassed nationally only by Into Mischief himself; but nor, when his first foals were barely slithering into the straw, were there any grounds for deserting him with equal haste. What an example of the panicked, neurotic herd instincts of commercial breeders today!

Cupid steadied the ship at 75 mares last spring and, now trading at $5,000 from an opening $12,500, he’s still entitled to show that those who backed him in his first year were right. His yearlings were processed efficiently enough, after all, a very healthy ratio of 68 sold from 82 offered at $46,786.

No surprise, perhaps, in one who himself made $900,000 as a yearling; and his Grade II-placed dam has produced three other stakes/graded stakes winners. After such a dazing start to his stud career, it’ll be fascinating to see which way things go from here. Unraced at two, he won his Grade I around two turns at four, so he’s hardly standardized to the industrial model. But I like a second dam by Vice Regent when Cupid’s damsire is out of a mare by his brother Viceregal, so Cupid could yet land his dart.

Another to join growing competition for the legacy of Gainesway’s champion sire is MOHAYMEN (Tapit–

Justwhistledixie by Dixie Union). Shadwell clients made the most of a very generous price, realizing an average $52,506–seven times his $7,500 fee–for 31 sold of 40 offered.

This is a pretty interesting horse: an unbeaten and accomplished juvenile, including in the GII Nashua S. and GII Remsen S., he went on to Florida and won the GII Holy Bull S. and GII Fountain of Youth S. before running fourth in the Derby. Unfortunately, he lost his way thereafter, but the looks and page that qualified him as a $2.2-million yearling stand undiminished, and his half-brother New Year’s Day (Street Cry {Ire}) obviously has somewhat more resonance than a couple of years ago. Their dam was a dual Grade II winner, also Grade I-placed, and Tapit doesn’t tend to get too many who land running quite like Mohaymen did at two. (And the page has a nice little knot between Tapit’s third dam and her brother Relaunch, whose son Honour and Glory sired Mohaymen’s granddam).

With 121 mares in his first book, Mohaymen could well make his presence felt in the freshmen’s table. Obviously he is not on the most commercial of farms, down to 51 mares in his second year and 59 last spring, but he definitely has potential to renew momentum from here.

This instalment of our ongoing series will be completed in tomorrow’s edition. Part II includes stallions like Klimt, Unified, Connect, Keen Ice, Lord Nelson, American Freedom, Midnight Storm and Gormley, along with our latest value “podium”.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Juveniles–Part I appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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This Side Up: John Keeps Bob Honest In Sham

We all trust that life must be better in 2021. But the immediate question is whether it will be ‘Good’ or maybe ‘Sweet’?

Right now, I’d settle for either. But it certainly looks an auspicious coincidence that the first race to sharpen focus on the Triple Crown trail–the opening leg of an adventure that reliably sustains us year in, year out–should include, among just five runners, one colt named Life Is Good and another out of Life Is Sweet (Storm Cat).

Their respective trainers, Bob Baffert and John Shirreffs, dominate the GIII Sham S. with two runners apiece. This, of course, was the race Baffert aptly chose last year to show that Authentic might just be the real deal. What a goofy animal he remained then, almost colliding with the rail as he hesitated to explore the overwhelming capacities lurking within. Despite virtually pulling himself up in the stretch, he won by nearly eight lengths: a spectacular overture to a campaign that will presumably see him formally anointed, later this month, as Horse of the Year.

The only colt ever to beat Authentic–if Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) will indulge us a fairly technical distinction–was saddled by Shirreffs. Honor A.P. (Honor Code) seemed to do so on merit, too, but fortune scowled at him thereafter. As noted in our ongoing survey of Kentucky sires, Honor A.P.’s subsequent derailment (in running that extraordinary race behind Authentic in the Derby) does at least give breeders access to perhaps the most physically bewitching Thoroughbred of his crop at one-fifth the fee of Authentic.

Life Is Good arrives with a beguiling resemblance to Authentic, as another son of Into Mischief to have started out winning a sprint maiden at Del Mar in November. He did so in such flamboyant fashion, in fact, that Breeders’ Cup champion Essential Quality (Tapit) has suffered the indignity of being supplanted as the first horse named in the Derby futures pool. Certainly Life Is Good seems able to melt the stopwatch with little observable effort: the challenge here, much as was the case with Authentic, is to start stretching the trademark Into Mischief speed towards Classic distances. Baffert describes him as very aggressive, and an attempt to get him to rate didn’t really come off in a workout before Christmas. But these obviously remain very early days.

Success breeds success, and Baffert has earned the right to become a standard destination for a $525,000 Keeneland September machine like this. How interesting, then, to see Life Is Good accompanied by a horse of a wildly unfamiliar profile: Medina Spirit is by Protonico and was a $1,000 short yearling, pinhooked by Christy Whitman for $35,000 as a 2-year-old back at OBS this past summer. If he can upset in this race, he will give breeder Gail Rice hope that 2021 may yet prove every bit as remarkable as 2020, when Speech (Mr Speaker)–a filly she bred from a $7,500 mare–won the GI Ashland S.

Anyhow, the force certainly remains with this record-breaking barn, which also houses a monster with the potential to dominate the older horses this year, judging from that staggering comeback by Charlatan (Speightstown) in the GI Runhappy Malibu S. As such, possibly Shirreffs can feel some empathy with the horse whose memory is honored in this race. What a time to be a self-effacing genius training in California!

Sham is famously thought to have run the second-fastest Derby in history, but was unfortunately foaled in the same crop as the fastest of them all in Secretariat. He came back, moreover, with two front teeth dangling grotesquely from his jaw after slamming his head against the gate. What a wonderful horse he was: as statuesque as he was brave. Spared the attentions of Big Red, Sham won the GI Santa Anita Derby in 1:47 flat. And how skillfully he was prepared for the Classics by Frank ‘Pancho’ Martin, whose horsemanship was inherited by his late son Jose, trainer of the flying Groovy (Norcliffe); and in turn by his grandson Carlos–as evinced in the career of Grade I winner Come Dancing (Malibu Moon), who missed almost her whole sophomore year but has shown unfailing appetite as a nine-for-19 millionaire.

Both Sham and Secretariat were out of Princequillo mares. So, too, was Kris S.–the damsire of Life Is Sweet, saddled by Shirreffs to win the GI Ladies’ Classic the same year Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}) beat the gentlemen at the Breeders’ Cup.

For Shirreffs to try Life Is Sweet’s son Waspirant (Union Rags) in a Grade I straight after breaking his maiden speaks rather better for his potential than did his performance on the day. Barnmate Parnelli (Quality Road) apparently arrives on a more positive curve, having run both Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) and Spielberg (Union Rags)–rivals that have amplified the form in the meantime–close before finally breaking his maiden.

Shirreffs saddled the disappointing favorite against Spielberg in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity S., Red Flag (Tamarkuz), who had previously romped in the GIII Bob Hope S. But one way or another, it’s good to see him with several youngsters standing up to Baffert in his own backyard. None appears to have quite the charisma of Honor A.P., from this remote vantage anyway, but what I do know is that they are in the very best of hands.

The past five Sham winners include four subsequent Grade I winners in Authentic, McKinzie (Street Sense), Gormley (Malibu Moon) and Collected (City Zip): three for Baffert, one for Shirreffs. You can be pretty confident, then, that what this field lacks in quantity will be redeemed in quality. Earlier winners Goldencents (Into Mischief) and Tapizar (Tapit) later confirmed an affinity for the track in winning the GI Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile; while Colonel John (Tiznow) returned to win the Santa Anita Derby on his way to the GI Travers S.

But the name that resonates right now, from the roll of honor, is 2006 winner Bob And John (Seeking the Gold). Though actually named for Stonerside owner Bob McNair and manager John Adger, this race reminds us that another Bob, for all his fantastic achievements, is not the only show in town–even on the West Coast. Yes, he’s the greatest showman. But he will absolutely respect the understated John who takes him on again today.

In fact, if 2021 is really going to be a better year, then there could hardly be a happier symbol than the induction of Shirreffs, however appalled by the attention, into a Hall Of Fame whose members will surely feel their own distinction diminished until it is shared by him. In this era of industrial numbers, he remains a professor of the old school, and recent inductees like Mark Casse and Steve Asmussen have duly banked far more prizemoney. Likewise Todd Pletcher, who becomes eligible for induction this year. Per starter, however, Shirreffs has earned $16,132 compared with scores of $18,043, $10,002 and $7,755 respectively for Pletcher, Casse and Asmussen. Take Zenyatta out of the equation, moreover, and Shirreffs would still be at $13,852.

The best measure of a champion is the rival who does not permit him complacency, even in his own dominion. That was true of Secretariat and Sham. And it’s true of Bob and John.

The post This Side Up: John Keeps Bob Honest In Sham appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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