Chris McGrath | Horse Racing Free Tips

This Side Up: Higher Stakes But No Less Of A Gamble

Well, that was one even I managed to see coming. With sterling bleeding at the bottom of the stairs, the most expensive yearling transaction of 2022 was duly enacted at Tattersalls this week.

It was always going to be a wild market: Keeneland had shown the big spenders to remain impervious to war and inflation, while the local currency had been set aflame after new leaders sent home the babysitter and started playing with fiscal matches.

Sure enough, Book I catapulted to giddy new heights, recording surges of 45 percent in turnover; 30 percent in average; and 25 percent in median. But once you incorporate a 20 percent haemorrhage in the value of a guinea since this time last year, those gains largely maintain the kind of bull run that has continued unabated in the U.S. (where aggregate yearling trade is up 14.8 percent).

This auction did, however, have two additional drivers. One is Frankel (GB), who accounted for the top four prices and is reaching a status in his second career parallel to that he achieved in his first. The other was an extraordinary renewal of ardor, notably for the sale's other dominant stallion, in the man who has long sustained this industry through good times and bad.

Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin team was again conspicuous by its absence in Lexington last month, having topped the September spending as recently as 2019 at $16 million. At Tattersalls this week, however, Godolphin bought 35 yearlings for 25,355,000gns, up from 15 for 9,375,000gns last year. Astonishingly, that weighed in at 20 percent of the gross!

In the American yearling market, the defection of an investor with apparently bottomless resources has actually stimulated domestic competition. Whether similar sustainability might be discovered in any such vacuum in Europe is hard to know. Without the Maktoums, breeders there might well find themselves precariously reliant on an export market that will, logically, eventually destroy its own value. For now, the racing product owes much of its competitive validation to sheer heritage. But that cannot continue if a) an increasing portion of the talent pool is exported even before it gets to the track, and b) successor investors don't match the Maktoums' long toleration of inadequate purses.

As it is, the Sheikh appears to have been especially animated by the finite opportunities left to Dubawi (Ire). The stallion he cherishes for redeeming the tragedy of Dubai Millennium (GB) is now 20, and his owner bought as many as 14 of his 21 yearlings sold this week. But even those with no such sentimental spur appeared so devoted to a tiny apex of the sire pyramid that it almost seems credulous. Combining a Book I physique with Frankel or Dubawi was treated as a short-cut to no fewer than 21 of the 28 sales for 750,000 guineas and above. If only the game were that simple!

Dubawi | Darley Photo

Frankel, of course, had posted a timely advertisement in Paris on the eve of the sale. Alpinista (GB) is no mere slogger—she was cruising throughout—even though Frankel has quickly established himself, like his own sire, as a profound staying influence; while the dam is by another such in Hernando (Fr).

It just shows how that elusive concept, class, is crucially underpinned by the stamina that allows you to carry your speed. That's a point I'm always making about dirt blood, but sticking to the European theater let's consider another son of Galileo (Ire) now at stud. Australia (GB) is famously out of Ouija Board (GB) whose prowess over a mile and a half will be remembered in the U.S. Yet he was arguably unlucky when only just beaten by Night Of Thunder (GB) and Kingman (GB) over the mile of the G1 2,000 Guineas. Ouija Board's family has mixed flavors but it's hardly the breeding-by-numbers sprint formula by which many people ended up trying to leaven the stamina of Galileo (Ire). Her third dam, indeed, was by a winner of the Ascot Gold Cup (20 furlongs). Yet perhaps Australia's principal stud achievement to date is a GI Breeders' Cup Mile winner.

That horse, Order Of Australia, returns Saturday to the scene of his finest hour for the GI Coolmore Turf Mile. There will doubtless be much comment about the sponsors inviting Christophe Soumillon to ride this horse for the first time, pending the two-month ban he received for a vividly perilous misjudgement in France last week. Though I have heard some disapproval of this apparent indulgence, it strikes me as a magnanimous gesture to a man who has, besides his suspension, lost a lucrative job and much esteem. This is not the first time these owners have provided a first step back up the ladder for someone who has taken a humiliating fall.

It's the deed you punish, not the consequences, and Sonny Leon's exhibition on Rich Strike (Keen Ice) last weekend looked at least as provocative but for the happy detail that his adversary stayed aboard. Instead it was fun to see Tyler Gafflione's hilarity, and Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) stifling any ungenerous mutterings about his win ratio.

Both horses showed all the valor and commitment that Calumet so prizes in its stallion roster. Whether that will assist their respective sires in turning the tide remains to be seen, but this is a farm animated by the most edifying priorities even if the execution sometimes shows them to be marching to their own drum.

Rich Strike & Hot Rod Charlie battle it out down the stretch | Coady Photography

Rich Strike notoriously carried the Calumet colors until winning a claimer by 17 lengths last year, and there can be barely less regret over War Like Goddess (English Channel). Both she and her dam were cheaply discarded and nor can her excellence now assist her late sire, who was doing so much to vindicate Calumet's message.

Sold for $1,200 as a weanling, War Like Goddess advanced her value to $30,000 as a 2-year-old when her slow-burning development was identified by Donato Lanni. The agent will have derived much satisfaction from the way she has bloomed since, reiterating the horsemanship that first earned him the kind of clients who can shop right at the other end of the marketplace. Fitting, then, that War Like Goddess was bought for the man who first got Lanni started, 20 years previously, George Krikorian.

Her damsire, North Light (Ire), could well prove the last Epsom Derby winner to stand in Kentucky. When you think of the breed-shaping legacy of so many predecessors, from the inaugural winner Diomed to Blenheim to Roberto, that is a dismal prospect. But you never know, the wheel may turn again someday.

That's the whole beauty of this game: you never know. Perhaps War Like Goddess, in her bid for the GI Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, can remind some of those who have been jumping through Frankel-shaped hoops at Tattersalls why this game is known as a great leveller. Maybe one of the 16 yearlings that made seven figures this week will go on and win the Epsom Derby. But few, if any, will ever run anything like War Like Goddess, who was led out unsold at $1,000 when taking her own turn at a yearling sale. Okay, so we never know. But I reckon that's one thing you know for a fact.

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Arc Showcases A Diamond Among Mares

Few people, anywhere in the world, will watch Europe's premier championship race on Sunday more avidly than Adam Bowden. His Diamond Creek Farm bred one of the leading fancies for the G1 Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, Onesto (Ire) (Frankel {GB}), and Bowden hopes to seize the moment by cashing in the dam at Fasig-Tipton this November. It's just one remarkable vindication of the way Bowden has adapted an unusually precocious advent in the world of Standardbreds to a different environment; of a restless, questing mind that has matched calculation with adventure.

When he first went to a horse sale, in 2005, Bowden was 24 years old and he had a plan. “I went in there thinking I was going to buy five mares, and just do everything myself, and learn,” he recalls. “And I left that sale with 20 mares and five weanlings. And I was like, 'Oh shoot, now what?'”

Well, here's what. He stuck to the plan.

“So the whole first season, I did everything myself,” he continues, shrugging. “No employees. Bred all the mares, foaled out all the mares.”

Seriously? Twenty mares, single-handed?

“There was, like, quite a few 72 hours with no sleep, the first year,” he says wryly. “And then I thought, okay, maybe I need an employee. But from there, it was 20 mares and then 40 and then 60. And in a short period of time, we had 80 mares. And I was off and running.”

But if this startling vignette suggests that everything has been extemporized, that he has got here more or less by the seat of his pants, think again.

“Sure, at that age you absolutely think you can conquer the world,” he says. “And knowing what I know now, I mean, what an idiot. But probably being a little naïve was good, as well. And I had done my work ahead of time.”

To be clear, this was not a case of some excited kid jotting a few numbers on the back of an envelope.

“Before I started, for four years, I'd kept immaculate data,” he says. “Anything that I could compile into formulas. I come from a biology/chemistry background, so math was second nature for me. And I just took as much information as possible, plugged and chugged different formulas to try to figure out if I could find trends, either in the sales ring or on the racetrack.

“I came up with different ways to score pedigrees and, actually, I still use them today. That's just how I see the world: black and white, zeroes and ones, however you want to say it. And that's how I got started. I waited for an opportunity and it was, like, 'All right, this is a perfect time and place to do it.' I felt like I was ready, even though I wasn't. But I jumped in the deep end.”

For those of us unfamiliar with the Standardbred industry, the depth of the foundations laid then can today be measured not just by that broodmare cavalry but also by 11 stallions in three states, a 30-strong racetrack stable, a major sales consignment division; and now—despite having so far branched out only on a modest scale, with no more than 11 mares—elite Thoroughbred colts either side of the ocean. Besides Onesto, winner of the G1 Grand Prix de Paris, Diamond Creek also bred one of the most conspicuous juvenile talents of the American summer in Gulfport (Uncle Mo).

So something worked first time round, plainly, and now things also seem to be functioning pretty well in the venture that has now brought him to our attention. Okay, so Bowden had actually sold the dam of Gulfport, Fame And Fortune (Unbridled's Song), for $320,000 at the Keeneland January Sale. But he also banked $600,000 with the joint-top mare of the same session, Susie's Baby (Giant's Causeway), a half-sister to Caravaggio whose daughter Family Way (Uncle Mo) has been Grade I-placed a couple of times this summer. And the fact is that Fame And Fortune, in her four-year transit through Diamond Creek's evolving Thoroughbred division, contributed yearling sales of $500,000, $275,000 (for Gulfport himself) and $650,000.

Bowden doesn't deny that Gulfport's 12-length win in the Bashford Manor S.—sufficient to prompt Coolmore to buy a stake in the colt, who subsequently ran second in the GI Hopeful S.—made him reflect wistfully on the dam's sale.

“But that was all part of our process,” he explains. “We bought a mare that we thought had upside, we did well, we made money with her. And then we traded her back in, and bought [back] a daughter that we'd sold, who's a broodmare of ours right now. So it's not like we're totally out of the family. And that's how you make money, right?”

It was a similar story with Susie's Baby: Diamond Creek had retained her daughter by Tapit for the broodmare band. And now the time has come for a similar calculation regarding Onshore (GB) (Sea The Stars {Ire}), alertly picked up from Juddmonte for 320,000gns at the Tattersalls December Sale in 2016. She was unraced, but her dam was a sister to matriarch Hasili (Ire) (Kahyasi {Ire}). Her Frankel colt didn't meet his reserve in the same ring as a yearling, during the pandemic, but shipped to Ciaran Dunne of Wavertree before making $535,000 from Hubert Guy at OBS the following April. His deeds since for Fabrice Chappet—and a partnership headed up, aptly enough, by trotting champion Jean-Etienne Dubois—assisted a yearling half-sister by Gleneagles (Ire) to €460,000 at Arqana in August.

“The debate has been about trying to maximize capital,” Bowden explains of Onshore, who is still only nine. “That's always part of the process. We're blessed to have her. But they are worth what they are. And sometimes you have to take money off the table. At 41, I think I'm able to see that more than when I first started. Then I would have been, like, 'No way, I'm riding this thing out.' But potentially she allows us to go buy a handful more mares, and hopefully do it all over again. Because that's always your goal, to create something that the market wants. I mean, you test the market. If it's there, you take it. We're selling a sister to Family Way in October. If she doesn't bring enough, then we'll keep her—and I'm okay with that.”

Bowden has not arrived in the Thoroughbred game with any intention of reinventing the wheel. He's adamant about that. But he does, characteristically, want to figure things out for himself.

“If people say this is how you're supposed to do stuff, I will tend to do the opposite,” he admits. “So in the horse world in Kentucky it was like, 'You do it like this, because that's how we've done it for 50, 75 years.' And I just turned my back on that. I was like, 'I'm going to do it my way, whether it's good or bad.' And I've failed sometimes, been very successful other times. But don't tell me this is how I have to do something, because I've never been too good at hearing that. I mean, I was the one that was jumping out of the window in school, getting suspended and stuff, just because it was different. I have always been Mr. Risk Taker.”

As we've seen, however, it has always been a calculated risk. No less than when he went “all in” on those first Standardbreds, he did his due diligence on Thoroughbreds. He was first hooked, aptly enough given the emergence of Onesto, watching European grass racing in the farm office at dawn. Again he compiled the data, ran the software.

“We were looking for a niche where you feel like you know as much or more than everybody else that you're playing against,” he says. “And we identified an area of the sport I felt I could play in. I can't compete with people that own countries, people that have art collections and things like that. But we're very happy to stay in our lane.”

Fortunately that lane diverted through Coolmore, home to seven of the mares and source, too, of priceless counsel from Eddie Fitzpatrick. Bowden focused on mares of a specific type and price range, and then rolled the dice on elite stallion power.

“Like I said, don't reinvent the wheel,” he says. “It's more, figure out what works. In the Standardbred world, we do everything. But it's taken us 15, 16 years to get to that point. Here, we bought the horses and then partnered with people who know their stuff: Coolmore, and sales companies like Gainesway and Eaton. Just recently, we've been raising the yearlings after they get weaned. And the first group included Gulfport, so that's kind of fun.

“I mean a horse is a horse, right? Conformation flaws exist in both breeds. Athletes exist in both. Failures and successes. It's all the same. If you can withstand the harness world, you can withstand this world as well. As long as you stay in your lane, try not to do too much.”

One way or another, it has been quite a journey since the epiphany at a county fair in Windsor, Maine, when a bulb suddenly lit with a college kid. Bowden's grandfather had given him some exposure to cheap racehorses in his boyhood, cleaning stalls and grooming on Saturdays, and was seated next to him in the stands that day.

Bowden announced: “There isn't anything else I want to do.”

“Well,” his grandfather replied. “Then you better get a plan together.”

So he did internships on Standardbred farms in Pennsylvania during college, and then moved to Kentucky to learn the ropes in farriery and farm management. Bowden's father, a real estate entrepreneur, bought into the project with enthusiasm.

“I was the oldest of four kids and an athlete,” Bowden says. “So, my whole life, I'm a 'type A' personality: OCD, one-track mind. So for me to do this, it's just part of who I am. I am red-headed! I can be a fiery personality. But I think I know what I have. I know my knowledge base, and surround myself with good people. But it's always, like, what's next? We're always planning the next chapter.”

Which invites an obvious question.

“Well, we started with mares and foals in the Standardbred world, and then we added stallions, and then a race stable, and then a sales consignment business,” he says. “So who knows? The Thoroughbred stallion game, I don't know if I want to be in the business of standing them myself. But being involved in their ownership would be interesting. I'm always open-minded to anything where I feel like I have an edge. I like the 'boutiqueness' we have with Thoroughbreds: it allows the play at a level that we feel there's a niche for us. But if we talked in another five or 10 years, I suspect that this thing would look totally different than it does now. In a good way.”

So even if Onesto puts his dam right in the center of the shop window on Sunday, you feel that this is still only a beginning. On Thursday Bowden was flying back from Goffs where he had sold a Calyx (GB) filly for €145,000, the second highest price achieved by that young sire in the Orby Sale, preparing to tack back immediately to his consignment for a big Standardbred auction next week. Sometimes Lindsay, mother of their three children, will still venture the question: “When is enough enough?” By this stage, however, his wife knows the answer.

“Never!” Bowden says with a chuckle. “No, I don't know—but it's not now.”

This, after all, is a man who derives fulfilment from the ultimate in masochistic sport, the Iron Man marathon. Maybe that's what drew him to Thoroughbreds, a relish for adversity?

“Yeah, it's the punishment!” he jokes. “That's what gets me up, four o'clock every morning. We all go to Keeneland and sees horses bring a million. But you don't see the ones that don't get in foal, or X-ray bad right before the sale, or even that die during foaling. There's so many more of those downs than ups that you better enjoy it when it's good. But even in the darkest moments, it's always been like, 'There's better stuff coming. I just have to be patient.' I always felt like this was what I was supposed to be doing.

“People in the Thoroughbred world are no different from the way they are with Standardbreds. We're all crazy, right? Everybody knows that you're not going to make a ton of money. You might get lucky every once in a while, but at the end of the day, you do it because you love horses. That's why we're here.”

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La Profunidad Del Marcado Lo Lleva A Un Ascenso Vertiginoso

Traducción de Herman Guanipa

La frase pertenece a Bob Hope, aparentemente cuando fue interrumpido por una persona que lo retó durante una alocución sobre moral militar para explicar por qué no estaba en uniforme. “¿No sabes que hay una guerra?” respondió. “¡Un chico podría lastimarse!”

Habría sido perfectamente legítimo que uno de los subastadores de Keeneland respondiera de igual manera a la gran cantidad de pujas que llevó a la subasta de septiembre a niveles sin precedentes. De alguna forma, el tipo de factores que tradicionalmente llevan a los mercados a una caída libre angustiosa, no han logrado detener una carrera alcista agobiante en los caballos de carreras. ¿Estas personas no tienen televisores o periódicos?

La resistencia del mercado en el transcurso del COVID fue lo suficientemente sorprendente. Muchos buscamos explicar eso por el deseo reprimido de aprovechar al máximo la vida, después de estar tan aburridamente confinados. También existía la sensación de que el nivel más próspero de la sociedad, del que depende tan ingenuamente nuestra industria, había sido aislado del tipo de estrés financiero que se experimentaba en la base de la pirámide social.

Después de todo, los ricos se habían beneficiado durante la década anterior de la liquidez aplicada (a través de uso dinero en efectivo como instrumento para disminuir las tasas de interés que lleva al aumento del gasto en la economía) para apagar los incendios de la crisis bancaria; y esos grifos nunca se habían cerrado realmente, incluso después de que la inestabilidad pasó. Pero ahora tenemos una inflación galopante, tenemos el horrible regreso de la invasión territorial en Europa, tenemos pronósticos de recesión en muchos países y, aún así, el valor de los Purasangres de Carreras sigue aumentando.

La siguiente tabla muestra que en el 2022 el costo promedio de un yearling norteamericano ha superado los $ 150,000 en un mercado que ha rebasado otra barrera histórica de $ 500 millones para esta época del año. Esto se calcula al agregar las tres subastas de verano de Fasig- Tipton: la venta de julio en Lexington más las selectas de Nueva York en Saratoga, combinado con la facturación en Keeneland durante las últimas dos semanas, donde las transacciones oscilaron entre $ 2,000 y $ 2,5 millones. Juntos, como tales, reúne una imagen completa del mercado en todos los niveles.

La facturación en la venta de septiembre aumentó un 14,9 % respecto al año pasado para superar los $ 400 millones por primera vez (perdió por unos centavos con la del 2006); mientras que el programa de verano de Fasig – Tipton aumentó paso a paso en un 14,2 % para lograr un acumulado récord de casi $ 109 millones. En conjunto, se han gastado $ 66,236,200 adicionales en yearlings en Norteamérica en lo que va del año, un aumento del 14.8 % que suma $ 514,389,200. ¡Eso representa una ganancia del 86,6 % con respecto al año 2012!

Estos números se tradujeron en promedios récord de $ 209,411 para Fasig -Tipton, un asombroso 20% más que en el 2021; y $ 142,429 para Keeneland, un aumento de poco menos del 8%. Combinado, el promedio anual de un yearling te está costando $ 152,774 en 2022, $ 13,510 más o un 9.7 % adicional que en esta época el año pasado.

Mucho de esto tiene un impulso muy edificante. Varias regiones, entre ellas el propio Kentucky, han estado desarrollando una estructura de premios o dinero a repartir que amenaza con presentar algo lógico y consistente, así sea un rumor o un hecho, a la inversión en el Purasangre de Carreras. Tampoco debemos olvidar lo que le debemos a aquellos que heroicamente han restablecido el deporte hípico en California, transformando el balance geográfico desde una situación crítica al progreso. Y, por supuesto, el circuito allí ha producido un caballo de carreras que ha hecho que incluso una etiqueta de siete cifras parezca barata.

Pero el crecimiento perenne, en un mercado como este, es imposible. El capitalismo siempre ha dependido de ciclos, requiriendo valles para generar las condiciones para el próximo repunte. Es concebible que la globalización haya sesgado tanto el sistema que la élite puede permanecer alegremente inmune a las dificultades de la calle. Pero si la recesión termina penetrando todo el órgano económico, como siempre lo ha hecho en el pasado, entonces debemos darle la palabra a Cassandra, porque el mercado de caballos es propenso a absorber lentamente las tendencias de la economía en general, ya sea en recesión o recuperación.

El Dow Jones, después de haber caído un 33,8 % en 2008, recuperó un 18,8 % rápidamente al año siguiente y mantuvo sólidas ganancias anuales hasta 2015. El mercado general de caballos de carreras de Norteamérica, por el contrario, perdió un 21,2 % en 2008; 32,2 % en 2009; y otro 6,5 %, incluso con esas pérdidas indexadas, en 2010. No fue sino hasta 2011 (18,2 % más) y especialmente 2013 (27,9 % más, junto con el mayor repunte del Dow Jones) que su propia recesión se estabilizó.

Por el momento, sin embargo, debemos reconocer un gran entusiasmo en el mercado actual. Los vendedores siempre se quejan de la polarización, de un mercado medio o centro blando y de una actitud del todo o nada (a menudo, dependiendo de la investigación). Pero esto se siente diferente. Entre los muchos récords establecidos en Keeneland, quizás el más significativo fue uno de 82 % de liquidación o ventas.

Si bien 30 ventas de siete cifras encabezaron las mejores piezas en esa subasta, el hecho es que sólo superaron por poco las 27 registradas en 2018. En cada caso, además, su costo colectivo representó una porción muy similar de la facturación total: 9 % este año, frente al 9,7 % en 2018. (El aumento de 11,4 % en 2019, por cierto, fue en gran parte por la malograda hija de de Leslie's Lady y American Pharoah de $ 8,2 millones). Sin embargo, como lo demuestra la siguiente tabla, la media en las dos semanas de ventas fue mucho más alta este año, con un récord de $70,000 contra $50,000 en 2018.

El tamaño de este sector es recíproco por la gran amplitud de la inversión, con no menos de 88 firmantes diferentes en las formas compras por valor de $ 1 millón o más.

Durante años, la gente se preguntaba con inquietud qué pasaría con el mercado si no contara con el apoyo de una familia que, a nivel mundial, había hecho tanto para ayudar al desarrollo de una industria de cría comercial. Recientemente, en 2019, Godolphin y Shadwell encabezaron la actividad de septiembre con un desembolso de $16 millones y $11,07 millones respectivamente para un total de 28 yearlings. Desde entonces, hemos lamentado el fallecimiento del fundador de Shadwell, Sheikh Hamdan, aunque esa operación adquirió cuatro potros por un total de $2.5 millones este año. Y Sheikh Mohammed, mientras tanto, ha brillado por su ausencia en esta venta.

En el evento, sin embargo, la deserción de los grandes compradores aparentemente capaces de ofertar indefinidamente, solo ha despejado el campo para la competencia. Las mejores perspectivas no se han vuelto más baratas en sí mismas, pero se han vuelto más alcanzables. Como resultado, la competencia se ha intensificado, no se ha diluido, incluso cuando los poderosos intereses nacionales han colaborado cada vez más en la búsqueda de objetivos comunes.

Este septiembre, solo por una mínima diferencia, el carismático dúo detrás de Repole Stable y St. Elias Stables superó otra poderosa asociación para terminar la subasta una vez más como comprador principal: su desembolso de $ 12,840,000 (para 31 yearlings) opacando el deseo de Donato Lanni $12,825,000 en nombre de SF/Starlight/ Madaket. Pero eso fue apenas la mitad de la historia, ya que West Bloodstock firmó como agente de Repole Stable por 27 yearlings adicionales a $7,940,000; mientras que Michael Wallace acumuló 15 a $4,475,000 para St. Elias Stables. Estas inversiones adicionales pesaron respectivamente como la cuarta y octava más alta de la venta; y eso además de una serie de jugadas individuales con otros socios.

Este último incluyó a MV Magnier , cuyo potro Curlin de $ 1.1 millones con Repole Stable fue una de las pocas inversiones de este tipo realizadas con socios. Magnier , que representa a los antagonistas tradicionales de los Maktoum en Coolmore , en realidad firmó solo por un par de potros. Con la fortaleza del dólar aumentando la devaluación hacia a las divisas extranjeras, Hideyuki Mori tuvo que conformarse con cinco cabezas a $2 545 000, en comparación con una docena a $4 415 000 en 2021. Eso dejó el alboroto deslumbrante del agente Richard Knight en la segunda sesión como la única contribución externa realmente llamativa en el tope del mercado, su gasto total (#7 para la venta) comprendió $4,875,000 en media docena de potros.

¡Hasta aquí las alegrías de poder viajar libremente de nuevo! Sin embargo, a largo plazo, lo que vimos es consistente con la actual desconfianza europea hacia los sementales de Kentucky, y el lamentable cisma transatlántico entre las líneas de sanguíneas percibidas como de arena y grama.

En cuanto al descuido local correspondiente de los sementales de grama, hubo al menos un tardío respeto por dos sementales de césped sobresalientes recientemente muertos en el estado del Bluegrass: English Channel obtuvo un suma promedio de seis cifras por segundo año consecutivo, luego de promediar no más de $ 33,167 solo en 2020, mientras que Kitten's Joy promedió $138,632 por 19 yearlings (frente a $103,457 del año pasado).

Como se anticipó por la distribución notable de su producción hacia la parte delantera del catálogo, esta venta supuso otro hito importante en la carrera de Quality Road. Con varios titanes probados acercándose al ocaso de carrera, el semental de 16 años del Lane's End, de nuevo selló su acceso a ese nivel al mantener nuevamente desde el principio al campeón Into Mischief (58 vendidos a $525,776) fuera del top de los promedios, 37 vendidos a $533,514 . Ese fue un avance adicional en los $ 472,794 por los cuales Quality Road superó a Curlin e Into Mischief en 2021, habiendo superado el año anterior Medaglia d'Oro , Into Mischief, Tapit y Curlin en $ 339,939.

Mientras tanto, Gun Runner, mucho más joven, mantuvo su ascenso abismal, vendiendo 40 potros a $ 461,875, lo suficientemente bueno para el tercer lugar con yearlings aún concebidos con su precio de servicio de $ 70,000. (¡Y recuerden que sus weanlings actuales nacieron a $50,000! Se preguntarán ¿Qué clase de aumento tendrá el precio de su servicio en las yeguas garantizadas en 2023?)

Como siempre, la mayor curiosidad se reservó para aquellos sementales nuevos en las ventas que hoy en día constituyen la base del mercado comercial. Su ventana de oportunidad es tan fugaz que parece casi cruel examinar su desempeño detallado, cuando en realidad no deberían ser juzgados en absoluto hasta que sus producciones lleguen a la pista. Pero si esto es como el mercado insiste en comportarse, entonces así debemos valorar sus debuts hasta este punto.

Obviamente, quedan varias subastas por venir, pero la pirámide de negocios hasta la fecha claramente proporciona una muestra válida. La siguiente tabla muestra los sementales cuyas primeras producciones han logrado hasta ahora con al menos 10 ventas.

Ahora, algunas personas sienten que es un poco extraño que a los sementales se les reconozcan los potros que no pueden vender. Lo difícil es que un potro que no logra alcanzar su reserva (RNA por sus siglas en ingles Reserved Not Attached) a veces estará entre los mejores de la producción de un semental, y su vendedor solo estará receptivo al tipo de oferta que no puede ser rechazada. Sin embargo, igualmente, un RNA a menudo puede reflejar una simple falla en la publicidad que pueda tener el padrillo en cuestión. Podría decirse que los datos deberían dar algo de crédito al semental que procesa un alto porcentaje de su producción. Por lo poco que puede valer, entonces, nuestra tabla también incluye ingresos promedio por potros en el ring, como una imagen adicional de cómo podría estar desarrollándose, en general, como un medio de inversión.

Porque si bien la tabla está ordenada según las ventas promedio, sabemos que el mercado tiende a ser bastante obediente en ese sentido. Año tras año, las primeras producciones suelen terminar valorándose más o menos según el orden jerárquico que indican los precios de sus servicios o montas.

Menos mal, entonces, que Omaha Beach ha hecho exactamente lo que se le pidió que hiciera, promediando cinco veces el precio de su servicio en $222,548. Ha buscado valor en todo momento, para ser justos, y ciertamente se ha mantenido en el negocio con recortes de precios de servicios consecutivos desde que engendró estos yearlings, habiendo mantenido su precio. Igualmente, se puede decir que Audible no ha hecho menos de lo requerido al promediar un enorme rendimiento de 6.5 veces el precio de su servicio.

Si estos dos no han dado un paso en falso, otros que no lo han hecho tan bien (en lo que sigue siendo, después de todo, disputas extremadamente tempranas) han tendido a recortar sus tarifas como un incentivo para mantener la fe. Pero creo que uno o dos sementales merecen un poco más de atención, en esta etapa, si nos ponemos en el lugar de los pinhookers.

Nuevamente, este es un ejercicio inexacto. Diferentes caballos son diferentes proyectos. Pero echemos un vistazo a los avances logrados por estos sementales entre sus promedios de weanlings y yearlings, como un posible indicador del tipo de progreso físico que puede lograr su producción.

Omaha Beach se ha destacado en este aspecto, sin duda, esencialmente duplicando su promedio de weanlings. Pero encendamos una antorcha en el otro extremo del espectro. Si bien los sementales más baratos obviamente están obligados a obtener ganancias bastante rápidas solo para cubrir el mantenimiento, los criadores más pequeños agradecen incluso los márgenes modestos.

Flameaway debe su evidente ascenso en estos índices en parte a un solo potro de $ 425,000 en Saratoga, pero su media de weanlings de $17,500 también ha aumentado a un ritmo similar a $50,000. En general sus ingresos, por ventas logradas y por potro en el ring, representan respectivamente casi nueve y siete veces su tarifa. Darby Dan sabe cómo poner números detrás de un joven semental barato y quizás Flameaway , que venció a Catholic Boy y Vino Rosso en el camino del Derby, aproveche su oportunidad al estilo de Dialed In. Aparte de todo lo demás, su tercera madre es una matriarca de la grama y, con su línea paterna flexible, el hijo de Scat Daddy merece mucha atención de los dedicados al pinhooking europeos que buscan una ganga para exportación.

Otro que comenzó con un libro muy grande con la mismo precio de servicio o monta, Maximus Mischief, logra la proporción más alta de todos por potros en el ring (7.5 veces su precio de servicio; también casi nueve veces su precio en ventas concretadas) después de encontrar nuevos dueños para 57 de 66 yearlings ofrecidos hasta la fecha. Ha agregado un 53 % a su promedio de weanlings y, con su perfil, también parece un medio evidente para el próximo ciclo de pinhooking.

Preservationist tuvo la desgracia de que el potro que ingresó en el Libro I, un logro poco común para un semental de $10,000, tuvo que ser eliminado de la venta de septiembre. Sin embargo, incluso sin su turno de estrella, logró algunos dividendos sobresalientes, incluidos potros de $280,000, $260,000 y $250,000 más abajo en el catálogo. En general, ha puesto dos tercios del valor promedio de sus weanlings, y las ventas de sus yearlings tienen un promedio de 5,5 veces de su precio de servicio o monta. Preservationist ofrece una profundidad genética ejemplar, recuerda, y no te dejes engañar por las causas que retrasaron su desarrollo en las pistas. Obtuvo un Ragozin de 3½ rompiendo a su Maiden en seis furlones o 1.200 mts., y la plataforma que ya ha construido sugiere que habrá precocidad para estar a la par de esa velocidad.

Todo esto no son más que pajas en el viento, y los partidarios con visión de futuro de algunos que no lograron obtener llamativos dividendos de la noche a la mañana se contentarán sabiamente con esperar hasta que realmente puedan probar si serán exitosos o no en la pista de carreras. Porque hay un gran problema con un mercado como este: fomenta la peligrosa falacia de que un potro de Purasangre nace para pararse en una pista durante uno o dos minutos. Por el bien de la raza, en última instancia, debemos reforzar la conexión entre el valor comercial y el rendimiento en la pista.

Mientras tanto, sin embargo, brindemos por esas personas trabajadoras y hábiles que han celebrado una excelente cría. Si bien las agencias de ventas de naturalmente encabezaron la tabla de consignadores por bruto, los promedios nuevamente fueron dominados por agencias más pequeñas. Todos nosotros, al desplazarnos por esa lista, reconoceremos nombres que reconfortan el corazón: amigos, tal vez parientes, muchas pequeñas fincas que admiramos.

Felicitaciones a ellos, y también a esos rivales enérgicos y ambiciosos, Keeneland y Fasig -Tipton, que han proporcionado un entorno comercial igual al auge actual. Incluso si los vientos fríos pronto soplan a través de sus rings de ventas, tal vez el próximo Flightline mientras tanto conozca la sensación de una silla de montar en las fincas de algún soñador. Porque comenzamos con una persona llamada Hope, y en realidad somos todos y cada uno de nosotros.

Para recibir artículos de TDN en español, envíe un correo electrónico a suefinley@thetdn.com.

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This Side Up: Striking Gold Never a Formality

In this business, simply “doing the math” would stop us right in our tracks. Luckily, we have algebra on our side. A daunting equation can always be rescued by that helpfully vague variable, 'x', the unquantifiable ardor of wealthy people: their competitive instinct, their sportsmanship, or simply their outsized egos. At the top of the market, after all, the dollars they spend are not the same as the dollars used by the rest of us to buy coffee or gas. It's not like “real” money at all. But that doesn't mean it can't be subject to a scale of values.

So, to give one example, I shouldn't be at all surprised if the most expensive yearling transaction of 2022 has yet to take place, despite that booming market at Keeneland over the past few days. American investment at the Tattersalls October Sale has been soaring in recent years, and the environment this time round could not be more congenial. Even the biggest domestic investors will be bringing a penknife to a gunfight. Sterling has hit a 37-year low against the dollar and, with the fiscal helm in Britain seized by navigators unorthodox to the point of eccentricity, you couldn't rule out outright parity between the two currencies by the time Tattersalls raises a hammer over several yearlings from the penultimate crop of Galileo (Ire).

And here's another calculation for the rich; specifically, for those prosperous partners privileged to share Flightline (Tapit). If all goes well at the Breeders' Cup, somebody in their decision-making huddle will surely point out that nowadays he has the option of banking the equivalent of around 50 covers, even at his likely fee, with a 110-second gallop in Saudi Arabia. (Conceivably it might even be muttered that the race is scheduled just 11 days into the breeding season.)

From the sidelines, we're all fondly anticipating mass public engagement for our sport if Flightline is permitted to extend his career beyond a sixth start. Even if his owners were to give us what we want, however, there's a scenario in which we might seem impossible to satisfy. What if they ask us to settle for a couple of breakfast broadcasts from the desert, before he rests up and takes in maybe a single prep before the Breeders' Cup? I think our gratitude might soon obtain a rather peevish note.

On some level, those imploring his owners to keep him in training are suggesting some implicit duty to the sport. That feels a little unfair. At the same time, if we are asked to believe that their strategy really won't be governed simply by dollars and cents, then it does at least become a question of the kind of legacy they wish to create from a generational opportunity.

Flightline's stud career is emphatically part of that, too, though let's not forget that even an authentic racetrack phenomenon must start over and prove himself in his second career. For now, it's not as though Flightline could be sensibly proposed as an equivalent wager, in terms of what a breeder should be expected to pay, to Into Mischief.

At 126, Flightline has authored one of just eight Beyers ever recorded at 125 or more. The only horse to hit a higher mark, Ghostzapper (128), is also the only one with any pretension to having maintained his elite status at stud. More typical are the fortunes of the horse with the unique distinction of clocking two of those eight Himalayan Beyers.

In his three final starts, Formal Gold ran 126, 124 (smashing a 40-year Monmouth track record) and 125; he was going into the Breeders' Cup on an irresistible roll when derailed by injury. Yet he would prove a thoroughly anonymous stallion, best redeemed by Semaphore Man, who annually contested the GIII Count Fleet H., aged four through seven, for finishes of 3-2-1-1. After failing to get any of three Saskatchewan mares in foal in 2017, Formal Gold was retired into the best of care but nobody noticed when he quietly slipped away two or three years back.

Now obviously Flightline is a radically different proposition. And not just because Formal Gold, expertly handled by the unsung Bill Perry and thriving on the attentions of Skip Away and Will's Way, stood up to 16 starts in 15 months. Formal Gold cost $62,000 as Hip 1657 at the September Sale; Flightline made seven figures at Saratoga. Alongside his freakish performances, then, he evidently has the genetic and physical wherewithal to make a better fist of his next career.

But even Secretariat notoriously failed to find a male heir. All Thoroughbreds tend to keep us guessing, in some respect or other, and that's never going to change. Certainly I can't buy into the notion that Flightline has fueled the market boom by showing that even really big numbers can be made to make sense. The year he was sold was no different from any other, in terms of the spectrum of outcomes.

It was that September, for instance, that the daughter of Leslie's Lady and American Pharoah made $8.2 million, and there's no need to remind anyone of the tragedy that ensued. That kind of thing can happen to any horse, but it's pretty sobering to scroll down the other top prices paid at that auction. They were obviously well assessed, physically, because most have made the racetrack. But while Malathaat (Curlin) has proved a million bucks very well spent, and there have been moments of excitement for the likes of Spielberg (Union Rags) and Overtook (Curlin), suffice to say that there are some pretty expensive geldings pottering around out there.

The late Cezanne in March | Horsephotos

Another of the headline scores of the 2019 bloodstock market was the $3.65-million Curlin colt that topped Fasig-Tipton's 2-year-old sale at Gulfstream. I was extremely sorry, this week, to read that Cezanne's various travails since had reached a fatal nadir in a fungal infection. He will duly remain an unfinished masterpiece, albeit even he managed two more starts than Flightline to this point. Cezanne's whole story has proved a very poignant one: most obviously, as the parting bow of Jimmy Crupi, but also given the premature loss (through colic) of a dam from one of the most brilliantly curated families in the book.

Cezanne had shown sufficient flashes of brilliance to merit a chance at stud and, this business being what it is, he would have started with the same blank slate as will Flightline. So we can never know, from one day to the next, quite when a Thoroughbred has achieved its definitive value.

As such, in enjoying a loaded GI Pennsylvania Derby on Saturday, perhaps we should cast our minds back to the 1996 running when Formal Gold was turned over at short odds. In the event, it proved that he had barely started. Maybe that can still prove true of Zandon (Upstart), in which hope I'm clinging stubbornly to the wreckage after his championship credentials took a battering in the GI Travers.

To me, he looked like a horse in some kind of discomfort that day, the way he carried his head turning in, and I refuse to forget the way he glided into contention on the first Saturday in May. For such a baffling Derby, it is turning out to be a pretty good one, and yet there was a moment when Zandon looked in a class of his own.

His equation still has that 'x' element, and maybe his new jockey will discover its true value. You know, I might even stake a dollar or two out of my grocery budget.

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