Chris McGrath column | Horse Racing Free Tips

‘Succession’ Presented By Neuman Equine Insurance: De Meric Sales

“It's a really difficult thing, to let go of something that you've spent your whole life building,” acknowledges Nick de Meric. “I don't know if 'letting go' is quite the right way to put it. But to actually cut that umbilical cord, it's a leap of faith.”

The Ocala horseman, who reflected on a colorful past in yesterday's TDN, now turns his attention to the future. For the evolution of a successor program, parallel to his own, makes the de Meric family a particularly pertinent case study for our series on how horse people handle the challenges of dynastic transition.

And, really, Nick couldn't have used a more apposite analogy. The “umbilical cord” to which he refers, of course, is the one extending four decades to the foundation of the pinhooking and pre-training business he operates with his wife Jaqui. Albeit not by much, it even predates the advent of their son Tristan and daughter Ali. But while that literally umbilical connection between parents and their children is never truly severed, the handover of a family business requires long habits of filial duty and parental authority to be gently renounced. And that's a process that demands imagination, flexibility, generosity.

As so often in these situations, Nick and Jaqui first had to establish whether, through nature or nurture, they had passed on a sense of vocation around horses-not to mention the accompanying skills.

“The guys I grew up with in the business, they're mostly around my age,” Nick remarks. “Some have kids who are looking like they're ready to assume the mantle; others don't. And when you've devoted your whole career to building a business, it's gratifying to have someone who can carry the torch forward for you, rather than just having to end it.”

Brandon and Ali Rice | Photos by Z

Ali married another who was born to the game, in Brandon Rice, and in 2009 they started their own program very much in the same manner as Nick and Jaqui around 25 years previously. They scraped together enough for a couple of cheap yearlings, notably a $7,000 colt who made $200,000 at OBS the following April before going on to become a graded stakes winner. Building on that remarkable start, Ricehorse Stables has proceeded to become a respected presence on the national sales scene.

Tristan and his wife Val, meanwhile, have become integral to the home operation, while maintaining a degree of independence that has evidently worked well on both sides. That they, too, know what they are about is evident from the fact that they and prepared subsequent champion juvenile Corniche (Quality Road) to make $1.5 million at OBS.

But perhaps an even bigger turning point, for Tristan and Val, had come when Gabriel Dixon put back on the market a 60-acre tract he had previously bought from Nick and Jaqui, with access to their Eclipse Training Center complex.

“Tris and Val were looking for something to invest in, so they jumped at that chance,” Nick explains. “And since then two more barns have been built, which they're able to lease out and so make the real estate itself turn into a good investment.”

(Again, this has strong echoes of Nick and Jaqui's own story: we saw yesterday how they once paid off their own mortgage in much the same way.)

“So their business runs adjacent and parallel to mine,” Nick explains. “They use our racetrack. We pinhook together, but they also do plenty independently and so do I. And I hope that eventually this way of doing things will make for a fairly seamless transition.”

So was this incremental model a deliberate strategy, or did it just evolve organically?

“I would say a little bit of both,” says Nick. “In life generally, but particularly in our business, we all know that the best-laid plans can go sideways in a heartbeat. So I would not so much say that it was my plan, but that it was my hope. Because while you can't project anything in cast-iron, at the same time you at least need some drift and direction.”

With both their children, Nick and Jaqui imparted their horse lore more by osmosis than by formal instruction.

“Ali was always obsessed,” Nick recalls. “If I left for the barn in the morning without taking her, and I'm talking like 5:30, she would have a meltdown. She used to come with me to the Keeneland 2-Year-Old Sale, I'd let her out of school for a few days. And later she worked sales in Korea, Europe, all over the States.

“Tris was always more of a homebody, and not so much engaged in the horses as a kid: it was baseball, dirt bikes, boy stuff. So when he did decide that this really was his thing, it surprised us how much he had absorbed, just from being around us, from conversations at the dinner table and that kind of thing.

“Certainly he didn't come round to it through any pressure from us. This business is tough on a good day, and I would never press anybody to enter it unless they're passionate. But ever since then, he's taken it and run with it.”

Evidence of Tristan's inherited flair emerged during what are perhaps the two most critical weeks for all these programs, in scouting the September Sale at Keeneland.

Tristan de Meric | Photos by Z

“We all know how that's as much an exercise in logistics and stamina as in horsemanship,” Nick says. “You've just got to keep plugging on, and Tris was right there doing a very good job. And from early on I found, more and more, that I could absolutely rely on his eye. I could send him ahead to do this or that barn, and we could compare notes later. I was always super impressed with how analytical and critical an eye he had for horses, at such a young age. Some things you can teach, some you can't, and he just had that knack.”

And that trust has become the foundation of their teamwork ever since.

“It's a totally subjective thing,” Nick stresses. “It's about judgment, intuition, instinct. So you don't always agree on everything. But he not only could pick athletes, but also had a very good fix on the economics of what we do. Picking the right horse is not always the hardest part. Actually, getting them brought at a price you can make sense of, that's a big part of the equation too. And knowing what you can and can't live with, in terms of vetting and conformation. He's done incredibly well with all of that, way beyond anything I can take credit for.”

So much for the innate skills. In terms of structuring their professional responsibilities, however, the together-but- separate model appeals as one that other families might usefully emulate.

“On a normal training day at home, when we're just doing our thing in the winter, we're right next to each other,” Nick explains. “I'm usually on a pony, and Tris is right there, either on a pony himself or in the viewing stand with Valerie. So we're actually talking all the time. We're watching each other's horses.

We help each other out, whenever we can, or need to. But those over there are his horses, his riders; and these over here are my horses, my riders.

Tristan, Nick and Jaqui | Christie DeBernardis

“We have clients in common, a lot of friends in common. But they have a following all of their own, which to their credit they have acquired quite independently of Jaqui and me. Conversely, most of my clients are now very familiar with them, and understand that we overlap a lot in our businesses. During a sale, they know they can talk to any of us and get all the information they may need.”

Nick is absolutely not going to pretend that it has been plain sailing all the way. At the best of times, it's never easy for one generation to know when and how much rein should be permitted to the next; and that's harder yet when the decision-making doesn't just affect personal development but the prosperity (or otherwise) of the whole family.

“I don't know if 'baggage' is quite the right word, but there's all the history that led you to this point,” Nick agrees. “As they say, the child is father of the man. So for someone in my position, who with his wife and partner has been making all the decisions, for better or worse-financial decisions, training decisions, client decisions-there comes a point when I have to say, 'Okay, you're in charge, it's your baby; I'm taking a sabbatical, I'm stepping back.' So far I've been easing back, but not pulling back.

“Sometimes you will see things a little differently. And that's where you have to learn to bite your lip and say, 'Okay, I might have done it this way instead-but I understand where he's coming from, let it go.' But most of us in this business, almost by definition, are control freaks to some extent. Because we have to be on top of everything. So that's a transition, too.”

That, however, is a price he considers well worth paying in order to see a life's work taken forward by his own flesh and blood. He cites friends whose children have no interest in doing that, and who will just have to call in a realtor someday.

“Neither Jacqui or I have any interest whatsoever in cashing in our chips and moving to a gated community,” Nick admits. “We are farm people. We have more dogs, cats, peacocks, goats, chickens, cows than you could count. Same for all the pets buried in the woods behind the house. We'd never move off the farm unless we absolutely had to. Behind every rock and tree, there's some little memory. And we're always going to ride, as long as we're physically capable.

“But that doesn't mean we have to keep going hammer and tongs. We've had so little time to really enjoy the farm for what it is. Just to get up in the morning, take a stretch, tack up our horse and just go wandering around. We've always been pedaling the bike.

“And we can see Tris and Val are doing a great job. It's great what they have done, working independently of me and alongside me. I can see the buyers are completely comfortable interacting with them. And that's allowing me to take a little step back. Maybe not quite as fast as Jaqui wants me to, but I'm working on that! I do worry, for both our kids and their families, about the collective legacy we're handing them in this sport. But I couldn't be prouder of what they have accomplished.”

The post ‘Succession’ Presented By Neuman Equine Insurance: De Meric Sales appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Value Sires For 2024 Part 7: The Big Guns

Today we conclude our survey of Kentucky stallion options with a look at the apex of the pyramid, comprising a couple of dozen standing between $60,000 and $250,000–besides whatever it might take to secure your mare an audience with Justify.

It feels presumptuous enough to offer counsel even on cheaper sires, when each mating should boil down to you finding an optimal fit for an individual mare that you know inside out. Still greater hesitation, then, must precede any attempt to discover “value” among this lot.

No stallion has any business standing at this kind of money unless demonstrably of elite caliber. So while we'll be nervously proposing a Podium, as usual, we won't be dwelling unduly on the rest. You can take it as read that most of these horses must be punching their weight, both on the track and at the sales.

Instead, I'd just like to make one or two more general observations, in concluding this series, on the current trading environment.

Here's a series of what feel like pretty uncontentious statements.

1) Fees, overall, feel rather too high now that a long bull run has tapered off and the middle market is being stretched by polarization.

2) At the same time, books assembled by unproven sires are reaching a size that must contain seeds of peril for the future of the breed. We know that most won't make the grade, meaning that the gene pool is increasingly being flooded with… well, choose your own pejorative.

3) But stallion farms have little room for maneuver, on either front. Knowing how the commercial market will behave nowadays, their accountants have only two options to retrieve the massive investment required to recruit an attractive stallion. The first is to start fees as high as they can, on the basis that it's now closer to “one and out” than “three and out”. The other is to keep fees more accessible, and instead go all out for volume. That necessarily exposes breeders to bringing an unexceptional specimen to saturated catalogues, but they all book their mares with their eyes open and many are evidently prepared to gamble on a home run. Pricing a horse fairly without resorting to appalling volume is an extremely difficult balancing act, and in this series I have tried to identify farms that look after their clients best in those terms.

Gun Runner | Sarah Andrew

4) Commercial breeders operate in a very difficult environment and need to put bread on the table. If you've had a weanling break a leg playing in a paddock, or lost a mare foaling, then you're going not going to be factoring too many noble thoughts about the long-term health of the breed into your choice of stallion. Same applies to all the pinhookers. The real blame, therefore, rests with those directing ringside spending.

5) These, in turn, have only one cogent explanation for their behavior. And no, it's not because rolling the dice on new stallions is their only window for hitting an elite stallion because all the proven ones are too expensive. Okay, horses like Gun Runner and Curlin have turned out to be at their most accessible when starting out, even though priced at or near the top of their intake. But the reality is that the vast majority of rookies will never match the ratios consistently achieved by some of the highly affordable, prove-a-mare stalwarts noted in this series. So the remaining logic is a self-fulfilling one: buyers like new sires because these will typically turn out to have received their biggest and best books, precisely because that's where all the attention is expected to be.

6) But hang on a minute. What happens when these books become so big that the mare quality becomes swamped by quantity? If you truly believe that you have spotted a stallion with unusual potential, why not stick with him as his second, third and fourth books dwindle? He may no longer be getting top mares, but good luck picking out the gold from the glister when the rookies are routinely corralling way over 200. You'd still be getting that priceless “sire power,” but at a diminishing cost. Where were all these guys when Into Mischief, Tapit and War Front had no friends in their third and fourth years? That's a real service for your clients, hanging in there for the value when everyone else runs away screaming. Low tide is exactly when you should be getting aboard. As a young stallion gets closer to putting horses into the gate, surely you're just getting closer to being proved right?

7) That leaves us with little alternative but to assume that professional counsellors spend their clients' money on new sires first and foremost because they don't really have to put their neck on the line. They're participating in a communal game of fantasy breeding, and when they do hit a dud–and we all know what a dud looks like, even if hundreds of foals means that he can still be promoted for “yet another stakes winner”–they can shrug their shoulders and say, “Don't blame me, everybody loved that horse!” And conversely they can gloat when they happen to land on a seam of gold. Well, even I can do that occasionally, and in the earlier stages of this series I've been perfectly happy to suggest a roll of the dice on one or two young horses that seem to be underpriced for their potential. But for every Not This Time I might find, over the years there's no doubt that I'm going to like as many duds as the next guy.

Life Is Good | Sarah Andrew

So, in conclusion: the bottom line is that stallion fees are only too high if you lack the courage of your convictions. Certainly, there can't have been many better epochs for the breed-to-race programs. But as I never tire of saying, there should be nothing more commercial than putting a winner under your mare.

Whether you want to bring down fees, or book sizes, the solution is the same. You just need to broaden the type of stallions that you support.

That way, everyone's a winner. Using horses that have at least demonstrated some competence to replicate the prowess that earned them a place at stud would a) allow relief on fees, b) even out book sizes, c) improve your chances of producing a racehorse, and d) duly improve the resilience of the racing population, with all the incidental benefits to a sport under growing social pressure.

The only comfort about our present situation is a cold one, in that things are even worse in Europe. The saving grace of the American industry is that it's still a commercial aspiration– whatever 293 mares to Golden Pal might tell you–to have a horse hold out through two turns of dirt on the first Saturday in May. And that, of course, is a competence that unites the majority of the elite sires with whom we close our series today.

This price range admits only one absolute beginner, Cody's Wish, whose intake received a separate assessment at the start of the series. And overall, logically enough, there are far fewer untested sires standing at this kind of fee than lower down the pyramid: only FLIGHTLINE ($150,000), LIFE IS GOOD ($85,000) and ESSENTIAL QUALITY ($65,000) are maintaining a place at this level pending examination on the racetrack. Nobody needs reminding of the excellence of their first careers, and the first two only have their first weanlings due. But it's perhaps instructive of the type of program keenest to tap into Essential Quality's wholesome combination of class and constitution (champion at two and three) with family (now further decorated by Forte, who shares a third dam) that only five weanlings were traded out from his debut crop (eight offered; median $280,000).

At the other end of the scale, we have a few sires whose right to stand at dizzy fees is too familiar to required reiteration. We have just celebrated a fifth consecutive title for INTO MISCHIEF ($250,000), who has duly opened new horizons with the mid-career upgrade in his mares. Competing with the Into Mischief production line may well leave CURLIN ($250,000) as one of the best sires never to have his status formally gilded by a championship. And TAPIT ($185,000) is still the main man, when it comes to lifetime ratios. He had a quietish year by his metronomic standards, and his books will be being prudently managed these days, but I still hope to see him come up with that Derby winner to round off a resume that features stakes winners at one-in-10 named foals, 101 of them at graded level at 6.2 percent.

Justify | Sarah Andrew

Nor is there any need to dwell on the young guns JUSTIFY (private), whose success either side of the water–six elite scorers in 2023, notably an outstanding champion juvenile in Europe–suggests that he may be eligible for a historic role in our urgent quest for sires to reconcile the disastrous segregation of European and American gene pools; and GUN RUNNER ($250,000), whose early percentages remain simply freakish. In 2023 his black-type, graded-stakes and Grade I performers respectively came in at 17.2, 11.8 and 5.4 percent of starters!

A lot of the best sires are now in the evening of their careers, and these two appear to have a huge opportunity to dominate in the years ahead, along with NOT THIS TIME ($150,000) who will now only just be consolidating his breakout.

It would perhaps be taking loyalty too far to give Not This Time his umpteenth Value Podium at 10 times the fee that first excited us, but rest assured there's an awful lot still to come from a stallion who complements the priceless transatlantic legacy of Giant's Causeway with indigenous Tartan Farms dirt speed. Remember that his juveniles this year will be his first sired even at $40,000, up from just $12,500. They reached a median of $210,000 (average $287,025) as yearlings, nice work at the conception fee (and up from $150,000/$209,688). Even after adding Up to the Mark as a fifth Grade I winner in three crops, Not This Time may do well to keep up his incredible start as the crop conceived at his lowest ebb turns three. But the upgrade in quality will soon kick in, and then all bets will be off.

In contrast UNCLE MO ($150,000) first stood at this fee back in 2017 and QUALITY ROAD ($200,000) reached the same mark by 2019. By this stage, then, they have pretty well established who and what they are, and duly finished fourth and fifth respectively in the general list. Quality Road has become a particularly consistent sales performer, advancing his median in 2023 to $375,000 from $350,000, behind only Into Mischief and Curlin. It was Uncle Mo (median $212,500) who fired his racetrack arrows closer to the bull's-eye in 2023, 14 stakes winners (at 4.4 percent of starters) including three at Grade I level, whereas Quality Road's 18 (7.2 percent) featured just National Treasure at that altitude.

Good Magic | Sarah Andrew

If that pair are plainly in their prime, GOOD MAGIC ($125,000) has broken into the six-figure club after producing the Derby winner at the first attempt. That's quite a hike from $50,000 but he's no one-trick pony, counting Eclipse finalist Muth among half a dozen black-type winners already from 45 juvenile starters in 2023. Obviously, he's going to have to keep advancing his ringside performance to warrant this fee, having achieved a median of $155,000 (average $217,390) with his latest crop. But that was up from $100,000 ($130,250) in 2022, and must itself be acknowledged a fine yield from a $30,000 conception fee.

From the same glitzy intake, BOLT D'ORO rises to $60,000 from $35,000 after a second productive campaign. Though his yearling dividends slipped, at a median $82,500/average $113,218, they similarly represented a punchy yield on a $15,000 conception fee. Bolt d'Oro has started a higher proportion of his foals than Justify and Good Magic, so we'll have to see whether that's a function of superior precocity or overall soundness. As noted earlier in the series, however, what really excites about this class is its depth: horses like Army Mule and Girvin are essentially matching their more expensive peers from much lower fees and volume. Those horses deserve a chance to show what do with their own upgrades before anyone reaches any definitive conclusions about the pecking order.

At the other end of the spectrum are some much older sires with a sustained record of achievement behind them. WAR FRONT has had his books managed with restraint for so long that he will never have adequate volume to shake up the general list, unless he has a real star, but even without one last year he maintained his customary strike-rates, for instance with 10 graded stakes winners from just 166 starters. His career ratios are beyond even Tapit, which makes $100,000 a terrific play for those who a) can afford it and b) aren't prey to a childish aversion to turf.

The MUNNINGS trajectory got so giddy last year that he was hoisted to six figures but that proved to be a moment of overexcitement and, after his book shrank to 146 from 204, he has dropped to $75,000 for 2024. His reputation has raced ahead of his fee for most of his career and he's actually on the point of upgrading his stock on the track, his incoming juveniles being the first conceived even at $40,000 and duly nudging his yearling median forward ($160,000 from $150,000). He has that big 2022 book of $85,000 covers in the pipeline, and the access he has enjoyed to better mares should also help him improve a somewhat pedestrian ratio for his five elite scorers to date. Munnings is nowadays virtually a lock for the top 10 in the general list and that makes him look pretty fairly priced.

Practical Joke | Coolmore

His studmate PRACTICAL JOKE is becoming one of the busiest avenues to his sire, albeit his affordability is diminishing (fee up to $65,000 from $25,000). Commercial breeders can't get enough of him, his latest yearlings achieving a terrific yield (median $110,000/average $153,807) on the cover fee. The obvious caveat is that his volume is now such (482 mares over the last two years!) that you had better not find yourself with an ordinary specimen…

CANDY RIDE (Arg) was one of those middle-rank sires most exposed to polarization at the sales (median down to $100,000, which was half his average, from $140,000 the previous year) but remains settled at $75,000 after Candied and Geaux Rocket Ride kept his name in lights. His son TWIRLING CANDY (average $160,064 also well ahead of his $90,000 median; clearly their good ones are very good) similarly stands at $60,000 for a third year after producing his eighth Grade I winner, albeit his respectable lifetime ratios don't quite match those of STREET SENSE at the same fee.

Street Sense arguably offers fine value at this level, even if his bargain buddy Hard Spun would make as much sense at a lower fee: some of their indices are uncannily in step. But at the sales Street Sense is maintaining a $150,000 average, well over double that of Hard Spun. That confirms the latter to be an end user's delight, but Street Sense covers all bases.

Their venerable neighbor MEDAGLIA D'ORO reached a peak of $250,000 in 2018 but was slashed from $150,000 to $100,000 in 2022 and now suffers a fresh indignity at $75,000. The fact is that his Hong Kong 'ATM' Golden Sixty belongs to the same crop as his last big star here, Bolt d'Oro, leaving the tide of fashion to ebb somewhat: his latest yearlings had to settle for a $180,000 median/$248,371 average (down from $242,500/$339,918). Nonetheless this is the same flesh and blood whose 22 Grade I winners in the Northern Hemisphere (26 overall) long gave him top billing at Saratoga and Book I. Thoroughbreds will always confound assumptions and it would be gratifying to see such a glamorous specimen muster one or two last hurrahs in the evening of his career.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze Medal: GHOSTZAPPER
Awesome Again–Baby Zip (Relaunch)
$75,000, Hill 'n' Dale

I guess it all depends what you're trying to achieve. But if you're one of those strange people simply trying to breed as good a racehorse as you can, then you certainly won't mind that this magnificent animal has now entered his 24th year.

Ghostzapper | Sarah Andrew

He was not very temperately handled early in his stud career, launched at $200,000 and slashed from $125,000 to $30,000 after his first juveniles blew out. Though a colt from his debut crop won the GI Blue Grass S., he was promptly cut again to $20,000. It was a long road back, but he's now just two short of bringing up 100 stakes winners at 7.8 percent of named foals.

Across the board, in fact, he's basically the same sire as Uncle Mo, who gets his black-type winners at 7.1 percent. Their stakes performers come at 13.1 and 13 percent respectively; Ghostzapper's graded stakes winners at 4.2 percent, against 3.5 percent for Uncle Mo; graded stakes performers weigh in at 7.2 and 7.7 percent; and 14 Grade I winners apiece come at 1.1 and 1.0 percent. But Uncle Mo stands at twice the fee, and has accumulated more named foals from six fewer crops!

Obviously Ghostzapper pays a commercial price for being less likely to produce precocious horses, but the likes of Mystic Guide and Goodnight Olive continue to reward those prepared to await the kind of maturity that enabled their sire to stretch his murderous speed, aged four, to one of the great modern performances. And anyone who saw the GIII Saratoga Special last summer will form their own views about Ghostzapper never getting precocious stock!

In the meantime, he has emerged, consistently with the sire-line, as an important broodmare sire, his daughters having now given us Up To The Mark as well as Justify himself. I don't know whether Ghostzapper was confined to 75 mares last year in deference to his age, or just because of commercial wariness. As your ideal Book II sire, he was vulnerable to market polarization this year. In the circumstances he did well to maintain a $170,590 average ($187,916 in 2022), albeit his median duly suffered ($115,000 down from $165,500).

But that's a sideshow at this time of his life. You know what he can do for your program, especially if you wouldn't mind retaining a filly. And you also know that there's a finite opportunity to tap so proximately into a combination as resonant as grandsire Deputy Minister and damsire Relaunch. It's a privilege worth paying for and, relative to plenty of untested young sires, it's one that doesn't cost so much.

Silver Medal: NYQUIST
Uncle Mo–Seeking Gabrielle (Forestry)
$85,000, Darley

Here's a horse back on the move, with his incoming juveniles sired at $75,000–up from $40,000, a response to the freshman title he won in 2020. He then had to be throttled back to $55,000 after hitting a flat spot the following year, mustering a solitary graded stakes winner, but that is now turning out to have been a blip.

Nyquist | Sarah Andrew

This year he came up with his third and fourth Grade I winners, and was denied a fifth in poignant circumstances, as sire of New York Thunder. Into their slipstream followed a bunch of juveniles that showed both the precocity to win at Royal Ascot (Crimson Advocate) and the flair to put themselves on the dirt Classic radar (Nysos, Knighstbridge). Nysos looks a pretty freakish talent and we know that his sire stretched his own juvenile speed when and where it counted, on the first Saturday in May.

Nyquist's $140,000 yearling median in 2023 needs to keep progressing, to justify his new fee, but hopefully that process is well underway (median was $110,000 in 2022, and average meanwhile markedly up at $192,749 from $148,275). He remained fully subscribed during his couple of years regrouping at $55,000, so there's unlikely to be any kind of bump in the road now.

The one he endured in his second year has certainly levelled off, so that even though he emerged in the same intake as Not This Time, he's faring pretty respectably even against that monster talent. Nyquist can't match his ratios for winners in each category, but in black-type, graded stakes and Grade I performers there's not much between them: 12.7, 6.7 and 1.8 percent of named foals for Not This Time and 12.1, 6.5 and 2.3 percent for Nyquist. True, Not This Time must have had lesser materials with which to make his name, but he's now at a fee altitude that requires oxygen masks, whereas Nyquist is still hauling his way up the rope behind him.

Gold Medal: CONSTITUTION
Tapit–Baffled (Distorted Humor)
$110,000, WinStar

This horse is at an interesting crossroads. His incoming juveniles were conceived at $85,000, the sophomores at $40,000, and his 4-year-olds at just $15,000. From 48 starters last year, even this latter group came close to a Grade I score through Webslinger, beaten a head in the Saratoga Derby and a neck in the Hollywood Derby.

Constitution | Sarah Andrew

The 2024 sophomores emerge from a bumper crop of 187 live foals, the first Constitution produced after his freshman breakout in 2019 (second to American Pharoah). They made a very promising start on the track, placing him second in the table for 2-year-old earnings. In fairness, he had a pretty enormous footprint, with 88 juvenile starters, but Catching Freedom set the tone for his peers in 2024 with his Smarty Jones S. success on New Year's Day. In fact, he's one of three Constitutions in the top nine of colleague T.D. Thornton's opening Derby Top 12.

And now, as noted, we can look forward to the $85,000 crop corralled by Tiz the Law's sophomore emergence. They averaged $281,125 as yearlings, up from $244,242, with the median steady at $200,000. The good old pipeline is loaded, then, and we know that those that stand out from a crowd will bring the big money.

His aging sire has arranged quite a race for the eventual succession, but for now this appears to be the heir to catch for the likes of Flightline and Essential Quality. Constitution has seen a lot of life for a horse of his age, including having shuttled to Chile for three years, but there's definitely a scenario where a fee held at $110,000 turns out to be a staging post on the way to still higher ones.

Breeder Selections

Paul Manganaro, Belladonna Racing

Paul Manganaro | Christina Bossinakis

Bronze Medal: Twirling Candy ($60,000)
Twirling Candy offers breeders a lot of bang for their buck. He has ranked in the top 15 on the national sires by progeny earnings list the last two seasons and has produced eight Grade I winners to-date.

Silver Medal: Quality Road ($200,000)
Quality Road has consistently produced the “Big Saturday Afternoon” horse. He can get you a quality two-year-old and one that can compete at the highest level around two turns. His 2.14 (AEI) average earning index is on or near par with the elite stallions currently standing in America. His offspring are also very popular in the sales ring.

Gold Medal: Constitution ($110,000)
To have access to Constitution at his stud fee is like stealing in my opinion. He's a stallion that had 17 yearlings sell for $400,000 or higher in 2023 topped by a $1.3-million Keeneland September yearling. The offspring from his best book of mares are just starting to hit the ground in the past few years and as Jan. 11 he has three colts ranked in the TDN's Top 12 2024 Derby list.

The post Value Sires For 2024 Part 7: The Big Guns appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Keeneland Breeder Spotlight: Heider Happy Playing The Long Game

The apartment glistens with the quiet discernment of its owner. Lexington spreads below the great windows and balcony, its urban grid seamed green by the many old trees that endure downtown. In somewhat the same way, amid all the artwork, the gleaming décor, Scott Heider draws on Nature to explain his love of this business.

He gestures towards a rose in a vase. “That's the best analogy, you know,” he says. “Beautiful, but it doesn't last forever. I look at the wonderful broodmares we've been blessed with–these living, breathing creatures–and they're the same. That's part of what makes it so alluring, so intoxicating. Because it's about persistence.”

He remembers what his father used to tell him, and his brother: “Nothing worthwhile is easy, boys.”

Not, he acknowledges with a smile, something you necessarily wanted to hear when young.

“But for sure, as you mature and experience life lessons, you see that it's true,” he says. “If something's given to you, it's probably not going to mean as much.”

He points to shelves displaying some of his racing trophies.

“But I can promise you… That Park Hill? The Debutante, at the Curragh? These are things that I can't tell you how much they mean to me. That's why you do it.”

Both those Group races were won by fillies trained in Ireland by Joseph O'Brien–instructive samples, then, of a program that manages to combine a rigorous focus on quality (barely a dozen mares between Kentucky and Ireland) with an unusual range of application. That is no less than we should expect, perhaps, in one whose own perspectives and engagement have uncommon breadth by the standards of our insular sport. We should duly take heart that for all his passion for art and film, all his success as a real estate developer, nothing animates Heider quite like the animals that bring him here from his principal residence in Omaha.

Cindy and Scott Heider | courtesy of The Heider Family

“My wife and I love cinema,” he says. “In fact, we just got back from the Telluride Film Festival. But I have never seen anything like the Thoroughbred industry. Art, film, these are wonderful things. They can fill your soul, stimulate your mind, hopefully open you to things that you didn't think about or believe before. As my Jesuit friends say, 'Always be open to growth.' So those things are important to me. But the Thoroughbred business? To me, it's just absolute, unlimited possibilities.”

True, he feels that some of these have not been adequately realized. He is dismayed, for instance, that we cannot achieve the same media traction for Cody's Wish (Curlin) as for less edifying news from the racetrack.

“We have such a unique, beautiful, unbelievably passionate industry,” he reflects. “Sometimes I think we don't know how good we have it. There's so much potential.”

In his own case, the magic was first ignited by boyhood visits to Ak-Sar-Ben. During high school and college summers he even worked there as an usher and mutuel teller. Attending the University of Southern California allowed Heider to sample Santa Anita and Hollywood Park, another level again from Nebraska-breds. And soon after he had launched his own career in business, father and son were also exploring this avenue of pleasure together.

First a friend introduced them to the veteran trainer Lyman Rollins. “And that,” says Heider, “was the luckiest thing in the world–because Lyman was just an upstanding guy.”

In 1987 they bought a $14,000 yearling colt from TaylorMade by To-Agori-Mou (Ire), a miler imported from Europe but pretty much a disaster at stud.

“And, as the racing gods would have it, that yearling turned out to be a Californian champion sprinter that won the Hollywood Turf Express three years in a row,” says Heider.

Answer Do, who also won three graded stakes, raced six seasons.

“Back then you'd race until September, October, and then you'd turn them out and bring them back in March,” Heider recalls. “You just stopped, let Mother Nature do her thing. And they lasted forever.

“Anyway, because of Answer Do, we came across all these wildly interesting people that were around at the time: Allen Paulson, John Mabee, Margie Everett, R.D. Hubbard. And we realized that you could put Allen Paulson, founder of Gulfstream, together with a jockey, a trainer, a groom—and everybody would just want to talk horses. It didn't matter what your background was. This was the great leveler, and that's a beautiful thing.”

The Heiders could not have got off to a better start; nor, of course, a more misleading one.

“When that horse finally retired, we spent probably six or seven years trying to find one that could run a third as fast!” says Heider ruefully. By that stage, however, they were hooked. “And, in hindsight, it became a really important bond with my father. I was getting married, having a family, life takes over. But boy, did we enjoy our time traveling around the country together.”

Losing his father in 2015 confirmed Heider in his hope that he might yet share a similar journey with his own children, Grant and Courtney, both recent college graduates. However their interest proceeds, Heider has long felt grateful for the indulgence of their mother Cindy–right back to when she ordered a wedding cake in the shape of a chocolate horse head, iced with a Lukas white bridle.

“As a lot of people in this business know, when someone's horse-crazy, their spouse has to learn to live with it,” Heider says. “But God bless my wife, she has learned to like it, especially the breeding. And she's very involved in the philanthropic side. In the horse business we've found some really talented people and organizations that might be relatively small, but that are definitely punching above their weight and making a real difference.”

These “small but mighty” operations include the Eddie Gregson Foundation, New Vocations, Bluegrass Farms Charities and, most recently, Stable Recovery.

“If you're fortunate, you're born into a situation where you're going to get a couple opportunities to right mistakes,” Heider observes. “But a lot of people don't get that opportunity. And I think the Thoroughbred industry is uniquely positioned to work with some of these folks–not only to give them a second and third chance, in a profession, but because horses are therapeutic. Some of the programs created for children are amazing. At first, they're scared to death of these animals, but just a few days later you see a remarkable bond develop. And it's the same with some of the people that have been incarcerated, or that have other life challenges.”

But if privilege brings duty, do we also owe a certain obligation to the breed itself: to consider its best interests, in how we try to make a living? Or is that a luxury in such a precarious walk of life?

“The Thoroughbred industry is a pretty decent microcosm for society,” Heider replies. “For sure, we have people that every day come into work, do a great job, and you know what, they've got bills to pay, they've a family to raise. They might be struggling day to day. But I think those of us in a position to do so can hopefully lead by example, and be involved.”

Accordingly he renounces the question that dictates so much commercial breeding: “What have you done for me lately?”

“We have a lot of stallions that would have been successful if given a chance,” he remarks. “That shorter-term mentality unfortunately permeates every aspect of the business. But then we're in a disposable society. Everybody leases a car, everybody replaces their phone every couple years. But this business is different, or should be anyway. Because the bloodlines that we're entrusted with go back 100, 200, 250 years.”

To that extent, he implies, it's not so much a question of who can afford to do the right thing as whether anybody, in the longer term, can afford not to?

“To me, do the right thing means: be respectful to the horse,” Heider specifies. “And to those working with them. The commercial market's going to have its influence. I'm all for the people that want to find the next stallion: there's plenty of risk, and we need that investment, we need to put those horses in the proper hands to determine their potential. But I think there's a limit. Because we want people to play this game long-term, right?”

The Heider program, then, is all “long ball.” One example has been his cultivation, over recent years, of a transatlantic presence. Whenever he's asked what drew him to Ireland, Heider always ends up—besides the heritage and horsemanship–by pointing to the passion and sheer caliber of the people he deals with. Certainly his admiration for the O'Brien family is not confined to their extraordinary professional accomplishment. But nor did he embrace the experiment merely in some altruistic spirit of adventure: Heider is clear that diversification of bloodlines is not just wholesome for the breed in general, but can also benefit his stable in particular.

“We have a young mare at Mill Ridge, Zofelle (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}),” he explains. “A Grade III winner here, she ran second in the [GI] Matriarch on her final start. She's beautiful, and from the family of Listen (Ire) and Sequoyah (Ire) [both Group 1 winners by Sadler's Wells]. The kind of thing that I could just lie awake thinking about! But I didn't send her back to Ireland when her racing was over. This spring she had her first foal by Into Mischief, and I bred her next to Not This Time.”

Zofelle | Lauren King

Heider views such stallions as influences for brilliance, rather than any particular surface or distance. Conversely, the class and soundness of the mare's family can also transcend its recent European setting.

“I have no doubt that she's going to throw something on dirt along the way,” Heider vows. “If you look back to the '50s, '60s, '70s, the transfer of blood from Europe to the United States, and vice versa, has taken place for a long time. There's been far less lately, but now we're seeing Justify throw some brilliant horses in Europe. I don't know how many others are out there doing it. But again, it's about trying to do the right thing–in this case, about invigorating the breed.”

Heider stresses that he still loves the dirt racing on which he was raised. At some stage, however, he would enjoy testing convention. Had he bought out his partners in Mia Mischief (Into Mischief), for example, he would have been mighty tempted to have her bred in Europe. (As it is, of course, she was sold to Stonestreet.) “So I'm just as intrigued by having Irish mares over here as by maybe sending something the other way,” he says. “Time will tell whether it's going to look brilliant, or whether people end up saying, 'What's wrong with this person?'!”

Some aspects of the program remain perfectly orthodox. Heider likes his trainers to develop fillies with pedigree, such as the $750,000 daughter of Nyquist and GI Kentucky Oaks winner Believe You Can (Proud Citizen) bought from Airdrie at Keeneland in September, with a view to promotion into the broodmare band. But that, again, is laying up rather than trying to drive the green.

“I was raised in the investment business,” Heider remarks. “And you'd probably think that I'm always looking at the quotes in the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times, checking my phone all the time. I do read the financial papers every day, but really don't pay any attention to daily or weekly fluctuations in values. Those don't matter to me because I'm not selling today or tomorrow. I'm more likely adding to existing positions over time. It's a share in the business that I own. If you're fortunate to own a piece of a really good business, you don't listen to what the next fad is. You make decisions only to benefit the business. You let good grow.”

Sure enough, he isn't going to fret about which stallion or nick might be hot today and abandoned tomorrow. “We don't care about any of that,” he says. “I want good, reproducing female families. If the mare has racing ability, even better.”

Heider shows a catalogue page for which he's responsible, and accepts that he invited market wariness with a stallion prone to produce a turf horse. But he felt the match ideal, both physically and in terms of the sire's versatility and temperament.

“Because a brilliant horse is what you're looking for, right?” he says. “Doesn't matter if it's turf or dirt, short or long. I think people like John and Tanya Gunther, who I have so much respect for, get that. They understand long ball, without a doubt. It's tough. A lot of times you stand at the plate and miss but, my goodness, they've bred more than their share of amazing horses. So, no, we really don't breed for a market darling. We breed to improve a family. Eventually, the page will prove out.”

One of his most cherished examples is the dynasty of Jude (GB) (Darshaan {GB}).

“Through four generations, you lose track of all the Grade I performers,” he says. “Well, that's because somebody nurtured it. That's because of Richard Henry. And that, I can tell you, is what you do in business as well. You hire the best people, you keep the best close to you. That's our approach in everything we do. It's never about quick returns. We'll give Flying the Colors, a beautiful young War Front granddaughter of Jude, every opportunity to shine. She's in Ireland, in foal to Night of Thunder, and she's returning to the States this fall to be covered by Uncle Mo. We are committed long term to that Coolmore family, and I will move a mare like her if I see it may benefit her.”

Yet even doing it this way soon fills the present moment with fresh cycles of excitement.

“You want to get me going?” Heider asks with a chuckle. “Just ask me about A New Dawn (Ire) (Zoffany {Ire}), who's a granddaughter of Cherry Hinton (GB) (Green Desert), and I'll tell you about her Kingman (GB) yearling filly that's going to Joseph, or her Wootton Bassett (GB) colt foal. Or our 3-year-old Gun Runner filly, Stunningly, that broke her maiden this summer at Saratoga. I like the balance we have going on. There'll be some interchangeable parts here, some moving back and forth. Time will tell how it all works out. But it's all long-term thinking, and that's what excites me. It's what I know best.”

Stunningly | Sarah Andrew

Yet while his ultimate legacy remains an unknowable horizon, each step on the way emulates the one that first embarked Heider on this journey.

“In the end, for me, it's the same thing as it was day one,” Heider says. “That love and respect for the horse. But I think our true job in this sport is to leave it better than we found it. Now, that may mean trying to improve the breed: introducing new blood, sounder blood, faster blood. Or it may mean a gentleman like Ron Winchell saying, 'I'm going to make Kentucky Downs something like the Cella family has done at Oaklawn.'

“That's long ball. I can relate to that, in the investment world. But then we have everything else. The families on the farms, on the backside. The horses, after their track careers are over. So, if nothing else, by the time I'm ready to run my final furlong, I hope people don't say, 'Boy, he had fast horses,' or, 'He raced Mia Mischief; and he did this and that in Ireland.'

“What I hope they say is, 'There's somebody that tried to do the right thing; tried to improve the sport itself, including the folks that participate and dedicate their lives to it, especially those individuals that maybe don't get nearly enough attention or support.' In our own small way I hope we can leave this incredible game, that we all love so much, a little better than when we found it.”

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This Side Up: No Proxy For The One And Only

Unfortunately, they only have one Two Phil's (Hard Spun). If they had another, presumably making Four Phils in all, then they might yet have the consolation of a proxy in the big races through the second half of the season. As it is, we can only offer our sympathy to the heartbroken team around a horse that brought us such precious cheer during what is proving a challenging year for our sport.

Because that's the whole point, really. The big programs would be able to temper their disappointment, on losing the services even of a horse as accomplished as Two Phil's, with the likelihood that an equivalent talent will eventually come along. And it was precisely because the circle of friends who launched Two Phil's towards the top of his crop did so by such accessible investment–he's out of the only Thoroughbred ever purchased by the Sagan family, a $40,000 daughter of a failed stallion–that so many of us identified with their cause. They made us feel we all had a chance.

Two Phil's, moreover, had been progressing from a somewhat sentimental, blue-collar rooting interest to a perfectly credible candidate for what feels an open sophomore championship. He was the only contributor to the GI Kentucky Derby pace that managed to hang tough, and looked better than ever on his first start since in the GIII Ohio Derby last weekend. How maddeningly typical of this game, then, that even in opening up new horizons his owners should suddenly reach a dead end.

They must now regroup, clear their heads and find Two Phil's his best chance at stud. His maternal family contains its challenges, but that is true of a lot of good stallions and something, after all, is demonstrably functioning in his genetic make-up. There is an increasing burden on sons of War Front and Hard Spun to maintain the shortest available connection to their breed-shaping sire Danzig, and Two Phil's certainly bears an auspicious resemblance to his excellent sire. Both proved their adaptability by winning the same Derby trial on a synthetic surface, before proceeding to finish second at Churchill. On the right farm, I'm sure that Two Phil's has every chance of writing a new chapter in the fairytale; and his connections have played their cards too faultlessly to need any help in determining which farm might be the right one.

In the meantime, we must just thank them for introducing this authentic ray of sunshine into our present darkness. As I've noted before, that rogue apostrophe actually became part of what the horse stood for: a symbol of his quirky, aberrational advent among those who set expensive standards at the top of the market. He arrived as a defiant Chicago gesture, many in his entourage having been deprived of their natural habitat–and one of the jewels of the racing planet–by the closure of Arlington Park by the very people who host the Derby.

One of those cast adrift from Arlington was trainer Larry Rivelli, whose prospects of replacing the irreplaceable should at least be enhanced by having drawn national attention to gifts already well familiar on his home circuits. In this bittersweet week, indeed, Rivelli has saddled six winners from nine starters; and these included two “Derby” winners in one weekend, with Act A Fool (Oscar Performance) making it four off the reel in the Hawthorne Derby last Sunday. Hopefully Jareth Loveberry, also integral to the horse's development, will now be able to consolidate, as well, having earned his stripes all the way through from Great Lakes Downs.

Proxy (outside) wins the GII Oaklawn Handicap | Coady Photography

But if some of these guys end up never quite retrieving the same heights, at least they all seized their opportunity when it came. And they would surely choose the shorter ride they took with Two Phil's over the “better” luck experienced by many others, in being able to restore a horse to training after being derailed before the Classics?

It's not as though there's a piece of paper anyone gets to sign, but how would you choose between Two Phil's or a horse like, say, Proxy (Tapit)? Having disappeared for 10 months after trying to get to his own crop's Derby via the Fair Grounds trials, Proxy lines up for the GI Stephen Foster S. on Saturday as a mature horse, with every prospect of building on what for now remains a fairly marginal prizemoney edge over Two Phil's. Since his comeback, he has also availed himself of a Grade I (in the Clark last fall). He's an admirable creature, in a field replete with similar types. But if you were in a crew that might very well only ever have one shot at the big time, would you not be swung by the fact that every Thoroughbred foal, from the moment it slithers into the straw, has one chance–and one chance only–to take you on the walk over for the Derby?

In the winter of 2021-22, certainly, the McPeek barn wasn't dreaming of the 2023 Stephen Foster for Smile Happy (Runhappy) and Rattle N Roll (Connect). The former at least made it to the Derby before his disappearance, but I'm delighted to see him back thriving now. He was bred by the charming Xavier Moreau, from a $57,000 daughter of Pleasant Tap. That was about as much as Xavier had ever spent on a mare, and tragically he lost her almost as soon as Smile Happy had emerged.

That's the thing about this game. Yes, absolutely, your little guys can beat the billionaires by breeding a Smile Happy, or a Two Phil's. But nor will they get any special treatment from Lady Luck, just because all their eggs might be in a single basket.

The only answer is an old one: “Gather ye rosebuds while ye may.” If that can be in May, and get you anywhere near that blanket of roses, so much the better.

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