Equibase Analysis: Endorsed, Chess Chief Candidates To Fill Out Pegasus Exacta Behind Knicks Go

Saturday's Grade 1, $3 Million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes has been touted for nearly three months as a matchup between Breeders' Cup Classic winner Knicks Go and Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good. Combined, these two powerful horses won nine of 12 races in 2021, with Knicks Go having kicked off his campaign with a victory in this race one year ago.

Seven others entered and none are slouches, though few are as accomplished as the top pair. Sir Winston has won six of 19 career starts including the G1 Belmont Stakes in 2019 and he most recently won the G3 Valedictory Stakes last month. Chess Chief won the G2 New Orleans Classic Stakes last March at the distance of the Pegasus World Cup and also enters the race off a win, in the Tenacious Stakes near the end of the year. Title Ready won the G3 Louisiana Stakes a little over a year ago and has only raced three times since then, most recently when sixth in the Tinsel Stakes in mid-December. Endorsed was a fast closing second in the G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes last month at Gulfstream and is approaching the half-million mark in career earnings, but his last victory was in May of 2020. Empty Tomb finished second in the Queens County Stakes in his most recent race but has never won a stakes race. Similarly, Commandeer won his final two races of 2021 but this will be his first try in a stakes race in his 11th career start. Stilleto Boy rounds out the field, with a two-for-12 record including a win in the Iowa Derby last July.

Analysis:

Considering both Knicks Go and Life Is Good have earned each and every one of their 15 career wins (combined) when leading from the start, the first question to ask ourselves is whether this is a case of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. One potential scenario is that both horses hook up from the start and go so fast in the first portions of the race they are out of gas by the time the field hits the home stretch, with the race won in an upset by one of the other seven. Certainly after about an eighth of a mile has been run we will know if that is the case.

I believe that will not be the case, because Knicks Go is faster than Life Is Good when push comes to shove, and the fact Knicks Go gets the rail whereas Life Is Good will break from the four post. Those factors should give Knicks Go the edge. Whether Life Is Good can relax in second position in the early stages then pass Knicks Go late is a question to be answered as the race is being run. My belief is that will not happen.

Additionally, since Empty Tomb comes into the race off the two best races of his career, having led through the opening half-mile in both, that leads to more early pressure on Life Is Good. Since not leading in the early stages is foreign to Life Is Good, he can be passed late by one of a couple of horses who will be far back in the early stages.

Contenders to win:

In terms of total speed, as measured by  Equibase Speed Figures, Knicks Go has an advantage in that department as well, with a 117 figure in last year's Pegasus World Cup following a rest after winning the 2020 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (won by Life Is Good last year). Following the Pegasus, Knicks Go earned a 119 figure winning the Cornhusker Handicap (at the distance of the Pegasus), a 118 figure winning the Whitney Stakes (at the distance of the Pegasus), and a 119 figure winning the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Although Life Is Good equaled that 119 figure in his Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile win, he has never run this mile and one-eighth trip whereas Knicks Go has won four of five starts at the distance. Life is Good's other wins last year consisted of 115 figures in the San Felipe Stakes and when beaten a nose in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes last summer. Additionally, the second and third place finishers (Ginobili and Restrainedvengence) beaten by Life Is Good in the Mile aren't up to the same standards as the next two behind Knicks Go (Medina Spirit and Essential Quality) in the Classic. Therefore Knicks Go appears to be the one to beat by far in this years' Pegasus World Cup Invitational, and as stated earlier I am taking the stand Life Is Good can be beaten for second as well.

The horse with the best “counter-energy” profile appears to be Endorsed, and it is not totally improbable he could post the upset if Knicks Go does not win. Although his 10 starts last year were all in one-turn races, and although he did not win one of them, Endorsed ran very well in his two most recent starts, earning 104 and 99 figures respectively, especially his last race when he missed winning the Mr. Prospector Stakes by a half-length when rallying from last of seven in the early stages. Earlier in his career, Endorsed was successful in two-turn races, such as when winning at Gulfstream Park in January 2020 then finishing second in the Alydar Stakes at Belmont that spring at the distance of the Pegasus. With very strong morning workouts at Gulfstream Park leading to this race and with a late running style benefited by a likely exceedingly fast early pace, Endorsed could get into the top two for the 11th time in his 23rd career start on dirt.

Another horse with potential to lag back early and get into second, with a very slight chance to win, is Chess Chief. This hard-knocking 6-year-old has earned over $800,000 in his career and enters the race off a win last month in the Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds with a 106 figure. That equaled the 106 figure earned when rallying from last of seven to win the New Orleans Classic Stakes last March, which was the biggest win of his career. Now that he's back in winning form, another “A” effort is certainly not out of the question.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures, is Commandeer (97), Empty Tomb (113), Sir Winston (107), Stilleto Boy (108) and Title Ready (102).

Win Contender:
Knicks Go

Contenders for the exacta:
Endorsed
Chess Chief

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, January 29 – Post Time 5:34 PM E.T.
One and One Eighth Miles
Four Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $3 Million

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Stewart Diverts Fair Grounds Stalwart to Pegasus

Put Dallas Stewart in front of a chessboard, and you know that he'd almost always rather corner the king, with a potential checkmate scenario, than turn around and strike out a mere pawn or two. Sure enough, Wednesday the trainer announced that connections have agreed to go on the attack with Chess Chief (Into Mischief)–even though taking up an invitation for the GI Pegasus World Cup, at Gulfstream Jan. 29, entails renouncing a “home game” this weekend.

Chess Chief has developed a remarkable affinity for the Fair Grounds, scene of all five career wins to date. It was apt, as such, that the latest of those should have come in the Tenacious S. over Christmas–that race being named for the winner of 11 stakes round the track, including three editions (1958-1960) of the one for which Chess Chief holds an entry Saturday.

But it's not as though the GIII Louisiana S. represents much easier pickings than the $3-million prize in Florida: the presence of two elite sophomores of 2021, Mandaloun (Into Mischief) and Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow), makes it look an exceptionally tough field for the grade. And nor is it just the competition that is liable to prove white-hot at Gulfstream, where the pace could set up favorably for the kind of late charge Chess Chief deployed to nail the Tenacious.

“We're going to make a move and scratch on Saturday,” Stewart confirmed to TDN. “He has an invitation in Florida and we're going to see how we do over there. He's never been in a race where there's been a ton of speed, which it looks like there should be in the Pegasus. We kicked it around, back and forth, and I could see either side of it. It's going to be hard, very hard, but he's already made over $800,000, and if he can finish third that would put him over $1 million. And then we'd be starting to think about where he could be aiming, as far as being a stallion is concerned.”

Win, lose or draw in Miami, Chess Chief will still retain the option of the GII New Orleans Classic at the end of the meet–a race he won last year, and a natural opportunity to resume his bid to become a modern Tenacious. That's a fitting aspiration not only for Stewart, who laid down the roots of his own career here, but also for the family of the horse's late owner.

James J. Coleman, Jr. was a cherished figure in the Crescent City, a businessman and philanthropist who crossed the trans-Atlantic divide with such charm (an oarsman at both Princeton and Oxford) that he was twice honored by Queen Elizabeth II and even appointed her government's honorary consul in New Orleans.

“He was great man, a real fixture here in New Orleans,” Stewart said. “Unfortunately, he passed away [in 2019], but his son Jamie is picking up the reins. Jamie's daughter Jane-Owen is only about 12, but she's really interested, too.

“It just happens that their horse really likes the Fair Grounds. Some horses just like certain tracks. I don't know what it is, in this case, but he finishes off his races here real hard. He must really like the surface. But this would have been a very tough race for a minimal amount of money, compared to the other one. The other race is even tougher, of course, but there's more speed and it might just set up good for him.”

That dauntless approach is trademark Stewart, and has often paid dividends. A couple of years ago he won the GI Ashland S, with 52-1 shot Out For A Spin (Hard Spun), and he landed the GI Kentucky Oaks back in 2006 with a 47-1 shocker in Lemons Forever (Lemon Drop Kid). In consecutive years, moreover, he saddled an outsider to finish second in the GI Kentucky Derby itself: Golden Soul (Perfect Soul) at 34-1 in 2013, and then Commanding Curve (Master Command) at 37-1.

And he sends two sophomores in pursuit of Derby starting points in the GIII Lecomte S. on Saturday's card. Unified Report (Unified) steps up in distance, and out of state-bred company, after extending his unbeaten start in the Louisiana Champions Day Juvenile S.; but Surfer Dude (Curlin) appears to have his work cut out to reverse Gun Runner S. form with the impressive Epicenter (Not This Time).

“They've both got a lot to prove in a very good race, but they're training well and have run competitively here, so we're going to see where we're at,” Stewart reasoned. “I think Unified Report will [stay the new trip]: he's got a lot of strength, just looking at him, and he doesn't get tired when he's working. He's on a roll, three-for-three, so we'll see how good he is. Surfer Dude has to make a big move forward, but he did that before and hopefully can make another jump.”

There will be no less interest, however, in another 3-year-old from the barn who makes his debut in the ninth race. Vinco (Quality Road) was a knockout $1.5-million purchase by West Point Thoroughbreds at the Fasig-Tipton Midatlantic 2-Year-Old Sale last year and surfaces here in partnership with Gervais Racing LLC. “He's just getting started a little late, but he's a very nice colt,” Stewart said. “But none of those numbers matter, it's a horserace and they've all got to run.”

Another sophomore carrying a big tag shaped extremely well in defeat last weekend. Strava (Into Mischief) now represents a partnership including octogenarian Louisville Cardinals coaching legend Denny Crum after going through the ring for $825,000 at the Keeneland November Sale, following an impressive debut at the adjacent track's fall meet. He still looked green when resuming at the Fair Grounds, all but overcoming a messy trip through the slop in an optional claimer over just six furlongs.

“The conditions were very rough and he stumbled a little bit leaving the gate, but he finished up good and looked like was going to win despite a wide trip,” Stewart reflected. “I thought he ran big, we're hoping to stretch him out next time and he could be a very nice colt.”

Of his association with Crum, Stewart remarked: “Well, you know, these are very competitive people. They understand the game, they like to know the strategy, how we're going to accomplish things. I've worked with him for a long time, he certainly knows about winning, and that's what he likes to do. It's quite cool to have these type of people around you, it really is.”

Among his sophomore fillies, meanwhile, Stewart reported that the Grade I-placed Sequist (Nyquist) is closing on her first appearance since trying her luck in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. “She did her second 5/8ths [breeze] today in 1:01,” he said. “She's looking at running middle of next month, probably in an allowance.”

Of his older team, Title Ready (More Than Ready) is set to accompany Chess Chief to Gulfstream. Winner of the Louisiana S. last year, he disappeared after a crack at the G1 Dubai World Cup and shaped well on his comeback at Churchill in November, only to fail to build on that next time.

“He did not have a great race in the mud at Oaklawn,” conceded Stewart. “But he's come back and had two good works since, and was a very well accomplished horse last year who ran big off his lay-off. He's been invited, so we'll give him a shot also.”

But Long Range Toddy (Take Charge Indy), who put himself on the Derby trail when winning the GII Rebel S. for Steve Asmussen three years ago, is struggling to revive that sparkle after a second disappointing performance in Hot Springs last weekend. “I know he loves Churchill but I just don't how much he still loves Oaklawn,” said Stewart. “He's got me scratching my head, to be honest, but we'll try to figure it out.”

In the round, however, Stewart can only be delighted with the state of his barn. In his 25th year as a trainer, he accumulated over $4.3 million in prizemoney in 2021, a tally he has only once surpassed–and then only narrowly, two years previously.

“You know, we just got to keep getting good horses,” he said. “I think we had seven or eight first-time starters win last year, and 12 or 13 2-year-old winners. I think those are pretty good numbers for a 40-horse stable. Now we've just got to keep getting accomplishments in these big races.”

Sure enough, he will never worry about the Tote board, or the ratings–and hence the bold move with Chess Chief.

“Listen, I feel good about the horse,” he said. “And no, I'm not scared of any numbers.”

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Pletcher-Trained Dr Post Likely To Ship West For Pacific Classic

Dr Post, a 4-year-old son of Quality Road trained by Todd Pletcher is a strong candidate to ship in from the East Coast to run in the $1 million TVG Pacific Classic at Del Mar a week from Saturday. The Pacific Classic is a “Win and You're In” race for the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.

Owned by the St. Elias Stable of Vincent Viola, whose sports-related endeavors include ownership of the National Hockey League's Florida Panthers, Dr Post has four wins in nine career starts and earnings of $700,635.

A $400,000 purchase at the Keeneland September sale in 2018, Dr Post ran once as a 2-year-old before going through a five-race campaign in 2020 that featured a victory in the $75,000 Unbridled Stakes at Gulfstream Park, runner-up to Tiz the Law in the Belmont Stakes – run as the first leg of the Triple Crown series – third to Authentic in the Haskell and fourth in the Jim Dandy.

His 2021 campaign has been comprised of wins in two Grade 3 events – the Westchester Stakes at Belmont Park in May and Monmouth Cup in July – around a fifth in the Metropolitan Mile Handicap in June at Belmont Park. The TVG Pacific Classic will be the first race west of New Jersey for Dr Post, who has been training at Saratoga, and also his first at the 1 ¼-mile distance.

Del Mar vice president, racing and racing secretary David Jerkens said that the first likely confirmation of an out-of-state shipper for the signature event of the summer meeting – trainer Dallas Stewart has shown interest in sending 5-year-old Chess Chief in from Saratoga – was good, but not surprising, news.

“He's been under consideration all along,” Jerkens said.

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‘Fit And Happy’ Maxfield Faces Eight Rivals In Saturday’s Stephen Foster

Godolphin's multiple graded stakes-winning homebred Maxfield leads a field of nine older horses that were entered in Saturday afternoon's featured 40th running of the $600,000 Stephen Foster (Grade 2) – one of seven stakes events on the 12-race closing day program at Churchill Downs.

Saturday's first race is 12:45 p.m. (all times Eastern) and the Stephen Foster will go as Race 11 with a post time of 5:59 p.m. The supporting stakes on the card are the $300,000 Fleur de Lis (G2), $300,000 Wise Dan (G2), $150,000 Bashford Manor (G3), $150,000 Debutante (Listed), $150,000 Tepin and $150,000 War Chant.

The 1 1/8-mile Stephen Foster is a Breeders' Cup “Win and You're In” event for the $6 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1). The winner will receive an all entry fees paid berth to the season ending championship event on Nov. 6 at Del Mar.

Maxfield, a 4-year-old son of Kentucky Derby-winner Street Sense, won the $400,000 Alysheba (G2) eight weeks ago at Churchill Downs. Trained by Brendan Walsh, New York-based jockey Jose Ortiz has the call from post position No. 8.

“We shipped him up from Keeneland last week and worked an easy half-mile (at Churchill Downs),” Walsh said. “He did most of his work at Keeneland prior to the Foster. He's a fit and happy horse. We're ready to go and excited to get this race underway.”

Maxfield was on the Road to the Kentucky Derby in 2020 when he cruised to a one-length victory in the $150,000 Matt Winn (G3). Unfortunately, due to a condylar fracture following a workout at Keeneland, Maxfield went on the sidelines until the fall. Through seven lifetime starts, Maxfield has recorded six victories and boasts earnings of $908,782. The only blemish in his career came in the $400,000 Santa Anita Handicap (G1) where he finished third to Idol.

Among Maxfield's rivals in the Stephen Foster is Tom Durant's five-time graded stakes winner Silver Dust. Trained by Bret Calhoun, Silver Dust was the half-length winner of the $150,000 Ben Ali (G3) at Keeneland. The 7-year-old son of Tapit was attempting to prep for the Foster in the $150,000 Blame at Churchill Downs on May 29 but was scratched after acting up in the starting gate. Since the Blame, Silver Dust returned to the work tab three times for Calhoun. Silver Dust finished third in last year's Stephen Foster behind Tom's d'Etat and By My Standards. Jockey Adam Beschizza, who has been aboard Silver Dust for his previous six starts, has the call from post 5.

The Estate of James Coleman Jr.'s Chess Chief finished third to Maxfield in the Alysheba and trainer Dallas Stewart will be hoping for redemption in the Stephen Foster. The four-time winner achieved graded stakes glory in March with a narrow victory over Owendale in the $400,000 New Orleans Classic (G2). Stewart enlisted the riding services of Hall of Famer John Velazquez for the Stephen Foster and the duo will break from the rail.

The other top entrants in Saturday's Stephen Foster are Ten Strike Racing and Madaket Stables' Grade 3 winner Warrior's Charge; Williamson Racings' two-time stakes winner Visitant; Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch and Pantofel Stable's graded stakes placed South Bend; Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider's stakes-placed Sprawl; Raymond Daniels, Wayne Scherr and Will Harbut Racing's recent allowance hero Necker Island; and Three Diamonds Farm's four-time winner Empty Tomb.

The complete field from the rail out (with jockey and trainer):

  1. Chess Chief (Velazquez, Stewart)
  2. Empty Tomb (Ricardo Santana Jr., Mike Maker)
  3. Necker Island (Mitchell Murrill, Chris Hartman)
  4. Sprawl (Brian Hernandez Jr., Tommy Drury Jr.)
  5. Silver Dust (Beschizza, Calhoun)
  6. Warrior's Charge (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox)
  7. South Bend (Tyler Gaffalione, Bill Mott)
  8. Maxfield (Ortiz, Walsh)
  9. Visitant (James Graham, Bill Morey)

Tickets are available for Saturday's closing day program online at www.churchilldowns.com/tickets. Admission gates will open at 11:30 a.m. and “Churchill Downs Today” will air at 11:45 a.m. throughout the racetrack and on www.TwinSpires.com, the official online wagering provider of Churchill Downs Incorporated.

Saturday's program also will air on “America's Day at the Races” on Fox Sports 2 from 12:30-6:30 p.m.

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