Tag: Cheltenham Festival Stats

Stayers Hurdle Cheltenham Festival Thursday 14th March

The Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham is a race steeped in history and prestige, often seen as the ultimate test for long-distance hurdlers. As we look ahead to the next festival, analysing the trends can provide us with a blueprint for identifying potential winners. Here’s a summary of the most significant trends for the winners of the Stayers’ Hurdle:

Age:

• The prime age for winners is between 6 and 8 years old, with 9 of the last 12 winners falling within this age range.

Betting Odds:

• Favourites have a fair chance, with 3 of the last 12 winners being the betting favourites. Moreover, 5 of the 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting odds.

Recent Performance:

• A win in their last run is a strong indicator, as 6 of the last 12 winners won their last race before the Stayers’ Hurdle. Additionally, 10 of the 12 winners had their last run within 80 days of the race.

Course Form:

• Experience at Cheltenham is crucial, with 11 of the last 12 winners having at least one previous run at the course, and 7 winners having at least one previous win there.

Distance Form:

• Proven stamina over similar distances is important, with 9 of the last 12 winners having at least 3 runs over 23-25 furlongs, and 8 winners having at least 2 wins over this distance.

Hurdle Form:

• A solid track record over hurdles is key, with 11 of the last 12 winners having at least 8 previous runs over hurdles, and 10 winners having at least 4 previous wins over hurdles.

Rating:

• A higher official rating is common among winners, with 9 of the last 12 winners being rated 156 or higher.

Grade Wins:

• Success in high-grade races is a good predictor, with 9 of the last 12 winners having at least one previous Grade 1 win, and the same number having at least one Grade 2 win.

Season Form:

• Consistency throughout the season is essential, with 11 of the last 12 winners having at least 2 runs that season, and 8 winners having at least one win that season.

Future Form:

• The Stayers’ Hurdle can be a stepping stone to further success, with 5 of the last 12 winners winning on their next run after Cheltenham, and 4 placing on their next run.

 

Ryanair Chase Cheltenham Festival Thursday 14th March

The Ryanair Chase, a highlight of the Cheltenham Festival, is a Grade 1 race that has become a key event for horses adept at middle distances. As we approach the festival, a look at the trends can offer valuable insights into what it takes to secure victory in this prestigious race. Here’s a summary of the most significant trends for the winners of the Ryanair Chase:

Age and Experience:

• Winners are typically in their prime, with 12 of the last 12 winners aged between 7 and 9 years old.
• A strong foundation of chase experience is evident, as 10 of the last 12 winners had at least 7 chase runs, and all winners had at least 4 chase wins.

Form and Ratings:

• The importance of recent form is clear, with 6 of the last 12 winners having won their previous run before the Ryanair Chase, and 10 out of 12 running within the last 77 days.
• A high official rating is a common trait among winners, with all 12 of the last 12 winners rated 162 or higher.

Course Familiarity:

• Cheltenham experience is crucial, as 11 out of the last 12 winners had at least 2 previous runs at the course, and 8 had at least 1 previous win at Cheltenham.

Season Performance:

• Consistent performance throughout the season is key, with 8 out of 12 winners having at least 3 runs that season, and 11 out of 12 winners having at least 1 win that season.

Future Prospects:

• The Ryanair Chase can be a springboard to further success, with 2 of the last 12 winners winning on their next run after Cheltenham, and 5 out of 12 placing on their next run.

Training:

• Irish-trained horses have shown dominance, with a significant number of winners coming from Ireland.

Graded Success:

• Previous success in graded races is a good indicator, with 11 out of 12 winners having at least 1 win in a grade 1-3 race.

Golden Miller Novices Chase Cheltenham Thursday 14th March

The Golden Miller Novices’ Chase, known as the Turners Novices’ Chase since 2022, is a Grade 1 race at the Cheltenham Festival that has become a notable event for 5-year-old and older novice chasers. The race, named after the legendary five-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner Golden Miller, offers a unique challenge over 2 miles and 4 furlongs on the New Course at Cheltenham. Here’s a summary of the key trends that have emerged for the winners of this race:

Training and Origin:

A significant number of winners, 9 out of the last 12, were trained in Ireland, highlighting the strength of Irish training in producing top novice chasers.

Age:

The prime age for winners seems to be 6 or 7, with 11 out of the last 12 winners falling within this age range.

Betting Odds:

Favourites have a decent record, with 4 out of the last 12 winners being favourites or joint favourites.
Additionally, 10 out of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting, indicating that the market is often a good predictor of the race outcome.

Recent Form:

The last run is crucial, with 10 of the last 12 winners having won their last race before the Turners Novices Chase, and 9 of the 12 winners having raced within the last 54 days.

Course Experience:

All of the last 12 winners had at least one previous run at Cheltenham, and 9 had at least one previous win at the course, suggesting that prior experience at Cheltenham is beneficial.

Distance Form:

Most winners have had experience over the race distance, with 11 out of the last 12 winners having at least 2 previous runs over 19-21 furlongs, and 10 having at least one previous win over this distance.

Hurdle Form:

A strong track record over hurdles is also key, with all winners having at least 3 runs over hurdles, and 9 out of the last 12 winners having at least 3 wins over hurdles.

Chase Form:

Previous chase experience is important, with 10 out of the last 12 winners having at least 3 previous chase runs, and 11 winners having at least 2 previous chase wins.

Rating:

A high rating is indicative of a horse’s potential, with 11 out of the last 12 winners being rated 146 or higher.

Graded Wins:

Success in graded races is common among winners, with 10 out of the last 12 winners having at least one win in a grade 1 or 2 race.

Season Form:

Consistent performance throughout the season is important, with all winners having at least 2 runs that season, and 11 out of the last 12 winners having at least 2 wins that season.