A Sire Waging War on Two Fronts

Call it the Japan factor. We've already seen it creating opportunities for breeders, after all, with Hard Spun–a still more direct conduit of Danzig blood, and arguably underpriced ever since his relaunch in Kentucky after a sojourn in Hokkaido. The Factor, however, is four years further behind in that process, and right now finds himself at an intriguing crossroads in his rehabilitation.

Having spent 2018 at Shizunai Stallion Station, the son of War Front had no American juveniles last year and will accordingly have no sophomore representation in 2022. That will obviously make it harder for the Lane's End stallion to generate the kind of domestic headlines required to arrest the attention of breeders. But there are two things that should help keep him in the game during a period when he might otherwise be expected only to tread water.

One is that his resumé, to this point, entitles The Factor to rely to an exceptional degree on his residual American stock, pending the (imminent) emergence of his first runners conceived after his return from Japan. The gray has a really striking record with mature horses–with the evergreen 8-year-old Bound for Nowhere, indeed, still flying the flag for his sire's very first crop after winning the GII Shakertown S. at Keeneland last year.

And that's useful context for the other stimulus to The Factor's cause, which might be harder for his promoters to keep in the foreground but certainly deserves an airing: the yield he has already achieved with his single Japanese crop, despite their deployment in a fashion dramatically different to that evolved, with their growing understanding of his stock, by American horsemen.

Technically eligible as a first-season sire in the Japanese rankings, The Factor had 19 juvenile winners in 2021, placing him fifth in the rookies' table. This tally was achieved from as many as 74 starters, albeit that was actually fewer than had represented any of the four above him. (The top two, indeed, gunned no fewer than 92 and 94 starters respectively!) The previous year, in contrast, American trainers had started less than half as many juveniles (34) by The Factor, and had pushed only half a dozen of those early enough, and hard enough, to win.

On the face of it, then, Japanese trainers appear to have fallen prey to pretty much the same misapprehension that contributed to an up-and-down start to this horse's home career.

Back in 2015, The Factor created such a buzz with his first yearlings into the ring–averaging a spectacular $143,499 off a $15,000 cover–that he was afforded the unusual distinction of a fee hike (to $25,000) before he had even launched his first runners. Somehow the market had decided that he would produce a stream of precocious youngsters, even though he had himself only made his debut on Nov. 28 (and broken his maiden a month later). To be fair, he was a sufficiently natural runner to promptly make all in both the GII San Vicente S. and GII Rebel S., before derailing from the Triple Crown trail and reverting to sprinting for his two Grade I wins.

In the event, with many immature yearlings having been put through the pinhooking ringer, The Factor had to settle for fifth in the 2016 freshmen's championship; and for 10th by winners, with 14 from 53 starters. (Albeit these included GI Chandelier S. winner Noted and Quoted.) Gradually, however, people figured out that he would reward a more patient approach. As his stock matured, so did The Factor's standing. He finished runner-up for the second-crop title; and by 2019, the year he had returned to Kentucky, he was bossing the fourth-crop table across all indices: 167 winners of $10.1 million, including 13 stakes winners/29 stakes performers. (The same year Union Rags and Maclean's Music, who have emerged from the same intake to command consistently higher fees, couldn't match those numbers even if combined together.)

There was a perfect snapshot of The Factor's developing profile that year when the 5-year-old Cistron, who had actually contributed a juvenile maiden win to his sire's freshman tally, crowned his ongoing improvement with success in the GI Bing Crosby S. By the end of the campaign, moreover, only Into Mischief and Kitten's Joy beat the 167 winners accumulated by The Factor.

The die was now cast. In 2020, The Factor missed making the top 10 living Kentucky stallions by a few cents; and while he proved a little lighter at the top end in 2021, by volume of winners he was beaten this time only by Into Mischief and Munnings. These are quite remarkable accomplishments for a stallion standing at $17,500.

Unlike so many of his commercially esteemed rivals, moreover, The Factor's output is not the result of enormous books. Its bedrock is–well, the second syllable of that word: Rock. Or substance, soundness, constitution. Not one of his Kentucky rivals can match his ability to get a named foal onto the racetrack, with a lifetime clip currently topping 88%. More Than Ready and the Airdrie stalwart Include get closest, at 85%, but there are some pretty expensive stallions bumping along in the low 70s. (The Factor gets fairly close to some of those even by his ratio of winners to named foals, touching 63%.)

The Factor's leading performer in 2021 was Charmaine's Mia, who won three graded stakes and placed in the GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint. Here, sure enough, was another showing striking improvement in her fourth campaign, having started out at two winning a maiden claimer. By now, then, we should all know what to expect of a sire entering his prime at 14. If his Japanese stock have been more aggressively campaigned in their youth, then it can only be auspicious that they have responded as well as they have. Because, with such hardiness on their side, they will surely keep building like their American kin.

“It was the classic case of a horse looking like he was going to be a big 2-year-old sire,” says Bill Farish of Lane's End, invited to reflect on The Factor's evolving profile here. “The hype was amazing, and very hard to live up to. He's done very well to be so successful after people had to readjust their sights, because I think he was really penalized that first year, when so many of them went to the 2-year-old sales. They just weren't ready for that kind of grind. I remember talking to [partner] George Bolton at the time, saying that [The Factor's sales debut] was kind of a mixed blessing because if they don't really thrive in that environment, it would hurt his numbers. And it did. But they came through anyway, because they're just so sound.”

Sending The Factor to Japan was a calculated risk. No doubt there were sound economic reasons for doing so, especially at a time when the domestic market was reappraising its initial assumptions. At the same time, the horse's migration locked a blip into his future momentum, one that perhaps contributed to a rather quieter yield at the yearling sales this time round. Farish duly urges breeders to consider the bigger picture, and anticipate the potential gains in The Factor's stature by the time foals conceived this spring come onto the market.

“Luckily, he's had 366 mares since he returned, so he's got quite a pipeline coming from the last three seasons,” he said. “That's important because it can take a while to recover from taking even one year off, and we know his production on the track will be down some this year. But I think he's the kind of exceptional horse that can pull it off. He's proven to be so consistent, and we're excited about bringing him back on track.

“Hopefully everyone will see what an impressive start his Japanese foals have made. It's hard to follow all the form over there, but I know they were quite happy with the book of mares they got [166] and they're certainly pleased with the results. Making the top five first-season sires over there is very impressive.”

Having shuttled three times to the Southern Hemisphere, and with top-class form on synthetics as well as dirt, The Factor is eligible to prove a significant international influence. After all, he comes from the first crop of one such, War Front, who was himself among the last sons of a still greater one, in Danzig.

Moreover The Factor offers modern breeders parallel compression of access to a damsire, shared with Galileo (Ire) and company, as internationally important as Miswaki.

“But while he does get turf horses, too, I think 17 of his 19 winners in Japan have been on the dirt,” Farish stressed. “I don't know if they've been targeting dirt races primarily, to start out, but they certainly handle it well.”

Bottom line is that his trademark resilience should allow The Factor not only to build on his prolific start in Japan, but to bridge the gap his migration will temporarily create in his domestic footprint.

“He does get 2-year-olds, but they stay around too,” Farish said. “It's just amazing, if you go down the list of his top performers, and see how many of them are four, five, six, even seven years old. It's not just one or two cases. All his top runners have kept right on going, to a degree I've really never seen. He gets sound horses–and that's half the battle, isn't it? They go on forever.

“All those [sire] lists are so useful, because people do tend to forget about stallions just below the top tier and they can see just how consistent he has been. With those percentages for starters and winners, he gives you a really good chance. The Factor is the definition of a value sire.”

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Keeneland November Kicks Off Wednesday

The sales action moves across town Wednesday with bidding on the first session of Keeneland November starting at 1 p.m. The 10-day auction, which runs through Nov. 19, opens with a single-session Book 1 comprised of 229 mares and weanlings, five of which were late supplements. The sale has five books in total and the last half of the final day will be dedicated to 285 Horses of Racing Age.

“We have a lot of optimism,” said Cormac Breathnach, Keeneland's Director of Sales. “We had an electric atmosphere starting in Book 1 of September and continuing through the very last day. We are seeing through the credit application process, the things we are hearing on the grounds and people coming over now that borders are open that the demand that we saw in September is going to roll over with renewed interest in breeding stock and weanlings to pinhook.”

The September sale also boasted a stronger middle market than the industry had seen in recent years, which is likely to trickle down into this auction.

“I think the middle market is going to be extremely strong,” Claiborne's Walker Hancock said. “Based off the September sales, you could buy a mare for $20,000 or $30,000 and sell the foal for at least double that. We are really seeing an increase in the strength of that part of the market, which is good for everybody.”

The Breeders' Cup provided some timely updates to a few members of the KEENOV catalogue. Charmaine's Mia (The Factor) finished third in Saturday's GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint and is offered here as Hip 172. Taylor Made offers an Audible half-sister to GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up Juju's Warrior (Hip 1801) and H idden Brook has a Hard Spun half-brother (Hip 251) to GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf third Haughty (Empire Maker).

“There is a lot of depth in the catalogue and mares in foal to exciting sires like Into Mischief,” Breathnach said. “Charmaine's Mia had a massive update on an already great page and [GISW] Paris Lights (Curlin) was a supplement, as was Jazz Tune (Johannesburg), dam of [GISW] Rattle N Roll (Connect).”

The November Sale is also known as a place too buy racehorses and they have reformatted that portion of the sale this year, placing it in a single session on the auction's final day.

“A new wrinkle we have for this year is we split the Horses of Racing Age section off onto the last day just to segregate it and we can have a later entry of supplement,” Breathnach said. “Even after scratches, we are expecting about 220 to get here middle of next week. We are hearing great feedback about that maneuver.”

Last year's Keeneland November was topped by Grade I winner Concrete Rose (Twirling Candy), who summoned $1.95 million from Larry Best's Oxo Equine. Best also purchased the second highest-priced offering, $1.9-million Indian Miss (Indian Charlie), who is the dam of champion Mitole (Eskendereya) and GISW Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow). She sold in foal to red-hot sire Into Mischief.

The Triple Crown-winning duo of Justify and American Pharoah were responsible for the most expensive weanlings at the 2020 renewal of KEENOV. A colt from the first crop of Justify brought $600,000 from Donato Lanni and an American Pharoah half-brother to MGISW Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) summoned the same price from Coolmore's M.V. Magnier.

At the 2020 auction, a total of 2,287 head sold, including post-sales, for a gross of $157,822,800. The average was $69,009 and the median was $25,000.

The Keeneland November Sale runs from Nov. 10 to Nov. 19 with the first session starting at 1 p.m. and the remaining nine sessions beginning at 10 a.m.

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Saturday BC Runners and Their Siblings and Dams Entered in KEENOV

In Friday's TDN, Brian DiDonato provided a list of weanling siblings and dams of Breeders' Cup Friday contenders entered in the Keeneland November Sale. Today, Christie DeBernardis followed up with Saturday Breeders' Cup contenders, their dams and younger siblings who are set to sell at that marquee auction. As Brian said, there is no update like a Breeders' Cup update!

Hip 103 – GI Breeders' Cup F/M Sprint contender Edgeway (Competitive Edge) will head straight from Del Mar to Lexington, where she will be offered in Book 1 of KEENOV. A $275,000 OBSAPR purchase by David Ingordo, the Hronis Racing colorbearer won two of four starts last year and was second in the GIII Dogwood S. Kicking off this season with a pair of wins, including the Carousel S. Apr. 10 at Oaklawn, the John Sadler trainee checked in fourth in the July 5 GII Great Lady M S. and won this venue's GIII Rancho Bernardo H. last out Aug. 20. Edgeway faces just four rivals Saturday, but one is a champion, one is a MGISW and one is a speedy Grade I-winning sophomore on the rise. Consigned by Lane's End, the 4-year-old filly is out of SW Magical Solution (Stormin Fever), who is a half-sister to GISW The Lumber Guy (Grand Slam).

Hip 172 – Book 1 also includes another Breeders' Cup runner in GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint contender Charmaine's Mia (The Factor). The bay kicked off her 5-year-old season with a trio of victories in the Jan. 9 GIII Las Cienegas S., Feb. 20 GII Buena Vista S. and Apr. 3 GII Royal Heroine S. She was off the board in her last three starts, most recently finishing eighth against males in the GII Eddie D S. Oct. 1. Privately acquired at the end of last season, Charmaine's Mia was campaigned by Agave Racing Stable, Medallion Racing and Rockin Robin Racing Stables with trainer Phil D'Amato. The daughter of SW Charming Vixen (Bernstein) is part of the Taylor Made consignment.

Hip 175 – Selling just five hips after Charmaine's Mia is the unraced Achalaya (Bellamy Road), who is the dam of GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Mile entrant Casa Creed (Jimmy Creed). Out of MGSW Wild Heart Dancing (Farma Way), the 9-year-old mare is a half to stakes-placed Unbridled's Heart (Unbridled's Song) and Leopard Rock (Speightstown). A $4,000 FTKFEB purchase in 2015, Achalaya's first foal was Casa Creed, a $105,000 KEESEP buy turned GI Jaipur S. winner and now Breeders' Cup contender for Bill Mott. She summoned $8,500 from Stonestreet carrying her second foal by Liaison at the 2017 OBSWIN sale. The dark bay was sent back through the same auction the following year carrying her third foal by Stonestreet's Jess's Dream, who is now Grade III winner Chess's Dream, and brought $15,000 form Trackside Farm. Achalaya RNA'd for $195,000 in foal to Distorted Humor at the 2019 KEENOV sale. The resulting foal was a colt and she had a colt by Omaha Beach this year. Achalaya is offered by Gainesway in foal to Horse of the Year Authentic.

Hip 176 – Achalaya's weanling colt by Omaha Beach, Casa Creed's youngest half-sibling, follows his dam into the ring Wednesday.

Hip 3519 – On the second-to-last day of the sale, which is the third day of Book 5, buyers will have the chance to buy the full-sister to Breeders' Cup F/M Sprint contender Proud Emma (Include). Texas breeders Eric and Randi Moreau-Sipiere purchased their unraced dam Debutante Dreamer (Proud Citizen) for just $2,500 at the 2017 KEENOV sale. Proud Emma won the GIII Bayakoa S. in December and is winless in four starts this year, but finished second to Edgeway in the Rancho Bernardo. She enters the World Championships off a fourth in the GIII Chillingworth S. Oct. 3. The dark bay weanling filly is part of the Ballysax Bloodstock consignment.

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Art Collector Headlines Full Slate Of BC Contenders Working At Del Mar

Bruce Lunsford's Art Collector, who figures to be one of the leading candidates for Saturday's $6 million Grade 1 Longines Breeders' Cup Classic, worked a half-mile in :48.40 Sunday morning to highlight a work tab that featured 20 pre-entrants to the World Championships slated for Friday and Saturday at Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, Calif.

Art Collector was one of three horses to work for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. Neil Poznansky was aboard the trio that included Casa Creed (Mile) going 4f in :47.60 and War Like Goddess (Filly & Mare Turf) going a half-mile in :48.20.

“They were all useful works, nothing blazing fast,” said Mott, who has won 10 Breeders' Cup races. “I never have a problem working good grass horses on dirt and this track looks safe and very forgiving.”

Trainer Rudy Rodriguez was aboard Bella Sofia as she covered a half-mile in :48.40 in preparation for the Filly & Mare Sprint.

“She's a happy girl and she loves to just go about her business,” Rodriguez said of Bella Sofia who has won four of five career starts and features daylight victories in the Grade 1 Test and Grade 2 Gallant Bloom in her past two outings. “She handled the track well and was very comfortable on it.”

In all, 14 pre-entrants worked on the fast main track and six more were on the firm Jimmy Durante Turf Course.

Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen worked four of his six pre-entrants headlined by probable Qatar Racing Sprint favorite Jackie's Warrior who covered 3f in :36.80. Also working half-miles for Asmussen were Clairiere (Longines Distaff) in :49.20, Echo Zulu (NetJets Juvenile Fillies) in :50.40 and Silver State (Dirt Mile) in :48.60.

Other dirt workers included C Z Rocket (Qatar Racing Sprint) going 3f in :35.80, Commander (Turf Sprint also-eligible) a half-mile in :48.80, Giant Game (TVG Juvenile presented by Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance) a half-mile in :48.60, and the Richard Mandella-trained duo of Dogtag (Maker's Mark Filly & Mare Turf) and Bombard (Turf Sprint also-eligible) working 5f in :58.20 and :58.40, respectively, in company.

Idol worked 5f in company in 1:02.40 but after the work trainer Richard Baltas notified Breeders' Cup officials that he did not feel Idol was 100 percent and withdrew him from the Classic.

Two other horses were withdrawn from Breeders' Cup consideration by their connections Sunday morning: Flagstaff from the Qatar Racing Sprint and Reina de Mollendo (ARG) from the Maker's Mark Filly & Mare Turf.

Highlighting the six pack of grass workers were two California standouts in Mo Forza and Going to Vegas.

Mo Forza, a two-time winner of the Grade 2 Del Mar Mile, worked a half-mile in :49.40 for the FanDuel Mile presented by PDJF for trainer Peter Miller. Shortly after Mo Forza finished his work, Going to Vegas worked a half-mile in :49.20 for Baltas in preparation for the Maker's Mark Filly & Mare Turf.

Also working on the turf were Time to Party (Juvenile Turf Sprint) going 3f in :38.20, Charmaine's Mia (Turf Sprint) going a half-mile in :50.20, Extravagant Kid (Turf Sprint) a half-mile in :49.40 in company with Zofelle (IRE), and Cairo Memories (Juvenile Fillies Turf) going 5f in 1:04.40.

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