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Equibase Analysis: Comebacking Gufo Well-Spotted In Man O’ War

Saturday's Grade 1, $700,000 Man o' War Stakes at Belmont Park drew a field of eight top level marathon turf runners with seven having proven competitive at this level in races around North America. Then there's Sovereign, making his North American debut and returning to the races after last racing in November. Sovereign has earned $1.14 million in his career, top in this field, the bulk of that when winning the Group 1 Irish Derby in the summer of 2019.

Next in terms of earnings is Channel Cat, who won the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes in the summer of 2019 as well and who finished second in the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes in his most recent race. Another horse which earned a big win in 2019 but not since is Ziyad, who was victorious in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Deauville in August of that year. He makes his third start in the U.S. since importing last fall and has two third place efforts since then. Gufo won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby over this course last fall and just missed in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby before taking time off, returning for his 2021 debut in this race.

Moon Over Miami won the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer, a race which doesn't yet carry a graded designation but with a seven-hundred thousand dollar purse similar to that of the Man o' War. Field Pass won the Grade 3 Ontario Derby and the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes last year and makes his second start of 2021 following a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. Shamrocket has two wins in 13 career races, none in a stakes race although he was third in the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer. So High rounds out the field and is running in a stakes race for the first time while still eligible for allowance races.

Gufo returns to racing following five months off but that is of no concern when coming back in a marathon on turf like the Man o' War Stakes. Gufo won the second through fifth starts of his career starting in December, 2019, through July of last year when taking the Kent Stakes, then just missed by a head in the $500,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational in August. Next, in his first and only start on the Belmont turf, Gufo won the Belmont Derby in October with a 104 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which was very strong for a 3-year-old.

In his final race of the year, Gufo was exceptionally game when rallying from last of 11 to be in a three horse photo on the wire, losing by a head and a neck with a 107 figure. The horses which beat him that day, Domestic Spending and Smooth Like Strait, are near the top of the turf division in North America having just finished first (in a dead heat) and third last weekend in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes. Now a more physically mature 4-year-old, Gufo should run even better than he did last year and that makes him the one to beat in this year's Man o' War Stakes.

Field Pass is also a 4-year-old and has a similar pattern to Gufo which suggests he could run a big race in this situation. Last summer, Field Pass proved his stakes quality when winning the Audubon Stakes and Transylvania Stakes in succession. In October, Field Pass earned a career-best figures of 109 when third in the Twilight Derby, won by Smooth Like Strait (who finished third in the Turf Classic last weekend). After winning the Ontario Derby on all-weather in November with a new career-best 110 figure, Field Pass finished fourth in the Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes (won by Smooth like Strait) before resting to begin his 2021 campaign.

In his comeback race last month, Field Pass was not disgraced when finishing fourth of nine in the Maker's Mark Mile and appears very well spotted to improve considerably in his second start of the year to be a factor in this race. Although he's never run this far, as a son of Lemon Drop Kid he should have no problem successfully running the distance because a STATS Race Lens query reveals the sire has produced four top graded stakes winners at similar distances.

Sovereign has been working steadily in Florida and New York for his U. S. debut. He is now in the barn of top trainer Chad Brown, who has a very strong knack with having his horses coming back from layoffs and making their U.S. debuts in top shape. A STATS Race Lens query reveals over the last five years, Brown has won with six of 22 (27%) similar starters in graded stakes. Sovereign earned the biggest win of his career when winning the Irish Derby in 2019 easily by six lengths. Since then, Sovereign has finished second or third in five races. One of those was when second to the incomparable mare Enable in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes last summer at Ascot, an effort which earned a 117 figure good enough to win the Man o' War if repeated.

Honorable mention has to go to Ziyad, who earned a 111 figure last October in his U.S. debut when third and beaten just two lengths in the Sycamore Stakes. Similarly, Channel Cat earned a 115 figure last month when second in the mile and one-half Elkhorn Stakes. As such I wouldn't argue with anyone who considered them contenders to win this race.

Also, Moon over Miami earned a decent 109 figure when second in the Pan American Stakes at a mile and one-half at the end of March and may fit as a contender as well. I don't feel the same way about Shamrocket, who although earning a 109 figure at the end of March did so at a mile and one-eighth and in a non-graded stakes so appears a bit overmatched. So High is definitely overmatched in this field as his best effort earned an 89 figure and he is still eligible for the first allowance condition as well as was running in a claiming level race as recently as December.

Win Contenders:
Gufo
Field Pass
Sovereign (IRE)

Man o' War Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont
Saturday, May 8 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $700,000

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Say The Word To Join D’Amato’s Kentucky Stable At Churchill Following Elkhorn Win

Agave Racing Stable and Sam-Son Farm's Canadian champion Say the Word, winner of Saturday's Elkhorn Stakes (G2) by 1½ lengths at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., was scheduled to head to Churchill Downs in Louisville on Sunday and join the rest of trainer Phil D'Amato's Kentucky string.

The victory in the 1½-mile Elkhorn by the 6=year-old son of MoreThan Ready was the second graded stakes triumph at the distance for Say the Word. The other came last year in the Northern Dancer Turf (G1) Presented by Pattison at Woodbine.

The Churchill stakes schedule has the $125,000 Louisville (G3) going 1½ miles on the turf slated for May 15, a race that could attract Elkhorn runner-up Channel Cat and fourth-place finisher Fantasioso (ARG).

“He showed signs that he was going to run a good one,” trainer Jack Sisterson said of Calumet Farm's Channel Cat, whose effort Saturday produced his best result since winning the Bowling Green (G2) in 2019 while racing for Todd Pletcher. “He had not trained that well coming into a race since we have had him.”

Sisterson mentioned after the race that the $750,000 Manhattan (G1) at 1¼ miles on June 5 might be a possibility but noted Sunday morning, “if we take the conservative route, we may do that (the Louisville).”

Bloom Racing Stable and I. C. Racing's Fantasioso rallied from last in the field of eight, finishing less than a length out of second place in his U.S. debut.

“He came out of the race well, and I was very happy with his race,” trainer Ignacio Correas IV said. “The plan is to go on to the Louisville.”

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Saez Guides Say The Word To Elkhorn Stakes Victory

Say the Word, a Grade 1 winner of the Northern Dancer Stakes for trainer Gail Cox at Woodbine last year, picked up his first victory since being transferred to California-based Phil D'Amato in Saturday's Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes at Keeneland racecourse in Lexington, Ky.

Ridden by Luis Saez, the 6-year-old son of More Than Ready defeated another 6-year-old turf veteran, Channel Cat, by 1 1/2 lengths while covering 1 1/2 miles in 2:28.26 on a course labeled “good.” Crafty Daddy finished a neck back in third, with Fantasioso fourth in the field of eight older horses.

Say the Word, who on Thursday was named champion turf male in Canada's Sovereign Awards, paid $7.20 as second wagering choice behind 2-1 favorite Tide of the Sea.

Say the Word raced in mid-pack in the early going as Tide of the Sea set the pace. He made a wide move running down the backstretch, reaching contention at the quarter pole, then drawing off late for the victory.

Bred by Sam-Son Farm, Say the Word joined D'Amato's stable after Mark Martinez bought into the horse from Sam-Son late last year in the name of his Agave Racing Stable. He ran three times for D'Amato prior to the Elkhorn, finishing third in the G2 Hollywood Turf Cup at Del Mar, 11th in the G1 Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational at Gulfstream Park and second to United in the G3 San Luis Rey at Santa Anita.

The win was the sixth for Say the Word in 29 career starts. He was produced from the Giant's Causeway mare Danceforthecause.

Post-race quotes:

Luis Saez (winning rider of Say the Word): “He just found a good spot (on the backstretch), and he picked up the bridle. I didn't want to let him go too early, so I tried to relax him. When we came into the straight (on the run to the finish), he was pretty good. He took it away, and he won the race.”

Josh Flores (assistant to winning trainer Phil D'Amato, who is based at Santa Anita in California): “The only instructions I gave to Luis was just get him to settle early. For a second we were a little concerned when he picked up the bridle on his own. Luis did a great job to get him to settle. Down the lane, the horse really dug in and put up a good fight.”

Corey Lanerie (rider of runner-up Channel Cat): “We were forwardly placed right behind the favorite (Tide of the Sea). The eventual winner was right on my hip and I just could not hold him off. My horse ran great. Going a mile and a half, the pace might have been a little quicker than I thought we would be going, but he handled it the whole way.”

Jack Sisterson (trainer of Channel Cat): “He ran a very good race. We were optimistic going in to this race. We backed off since his last race (fifth in Jan. 23 William L. McKnight-G3 at Gulfstream Park). We decided to point to the Elkhorn here at Keeneland – this is home for him. If horses could talk, he was telling us he was going to run a big race. It was good to see him run back to the form he had when he was trained by Todd Pletcher.”

On Channel Cat's next race: “We might look at something like the Manhattan (G1 at Belmont Park June 5) or the United Nations (G1 at Monmouth Park July 17). I think he is better than a Grade 3 horse.”

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Ft. Lauderdale: Maker Hoping Pair Earn Chance At Pegasus Turf, Channel Cat Returns From Layoff

Upset winner of the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1) in January with Zulu Alpha, trainer Mike Maker will find out whether he has a candidate or two to defend his title next month when he sends out Somelikeithotbrown and Tide of the Sea in Saturday's $200,000 Fort Lauderdale (G2) at Gulfstream Park.

The Fort Lauderdale for 3-year-olds and up going 1 1/8 miles on the grass is the hometown prep for the 1 3 /16-mile Pegasus Turf, among seven graded-stakes worth $4.8 million in purses on Saturday, Jan. 23 led by the $3 million Pegasus World Cup (G1) for 4-year-olds and up on dirt.

Skychai Racing and Sand Dollar Stable's Somelikeithotbrown is a two-time graded-stakes winner of $689,338 in purse earnings that drew the rail in a field of 10 for the Fort Lauderdale that includes eight stakes winners, six of them graded.

In his most recent effort, Somelikeithotbrown led all the way to beat fellow New York-breds in the Oct. 24 Mohawk at Belmont Park after finishing second to Fort Lauderdale rival Factor This in the Dinner Party (G2) at Pimlico Race Course. Both races came at 1 1/16 miles.

Somelikeithotbrown beat another Fort Lauderdale combatant, Halladay, to win the Bernard Baruch (G2) July 26 at Saratoga; Halladay came back to win the Fourstardave (G1) in his next start. Somelikeithotbrown was third by less than a length in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at 2 and won the John Battaglia and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) to open his 3-year-old season before being sidelined after a fourth in the Blue Grass (G2).

“He's a very attractive horse. He always showed talent as a 2-year-old. He followed it up with a great Breeders' Cup run,” Maker said. “He got a minor injury in the Blue Grass and we had to stop on him but he came back this year and had a heck of a year.

“He continues to do well,” he added. “Hopefully, if he can run his race on Saturday, we can move on to the Pegasus.”

Tyler Gaffalione, who won last year's Pegasus Turf for Maker, has the call on the typically front-running Somelikeithotbrown.

“That's his running style, and we're going to live and die by it,” Maker said.

Three Diamonds Farm's Tide of the Sea will be making his stakes debut in his ninth overall start and fifth since joining Maker's string after being purchased for $80,000 at Keeneland's November 2019 breeding stock sale.

“He's a late-maturing horse,” Maker said. “They purchased him out of the sale and he's had a good year. I think he's going to be a force to be reckoned with in the marathon division this year.”

Tide of the Sea takes a two-race win streak into the Fort Lauderdale, going 1 5/16 miles Sept. 12 at Kentucky Downs and 1 ½ miles Oct. 7 at Keeneland. Joe Bravo rides from Post 7.

“I'd prefer to go a bit longer but we don't have that opportunity now so we figured we'd give him a shot going the mile and an eighth,” Maker said. “He's on top of his game right now so I think he deserves a chance. He's another one to get a good read on if we move on to the Pegasus or the McKnight.”

The $150,000 W.L. McKnight (G3) for 4-year-olds and up at 1 ½ miles on the turf is part of the Pegasus day undercard.

Michael Hui's Zulu Alpha upset the 2020 Pegasus Turf at odds of nearly 12-1, then went on to win the Mac Diarmida (G2) and run second by a neck to stablemate Bemma's Boy in the Pan American (G2) during the 2019-2020 Championship Meet. He was forced to miss the Nov. 7 Breeders' Cup Turf (G1) with slight swelling in his left front leg.

“He's doing fine. He's on the farm,” Maker said. “Hopefully here in the next two or three weeks we'll see if we get to bring him back in or not.”

Calumet Farm's homebred Grade 2 winner Channel Cat, closing in on $1 million in career earnings, will launch his comeback off a nine-month break between starts in Saturday's $200,000 Fort Lauderdale (G2).

The 5-year-old son of turf champion English Channel came within a length of winning last year's Fort Lauderdale, beaten a neck for second by Admission Office. After running a troubled 10th in the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1), Channel Cat was fourth by 1 ½ lengths in the Pan American (G2) March 28, his most recent race.

Channel Cat will be making his first start for Calumet's private trainer, Jack Sisterson, after winning five of 22 races and $948,592 in purse earnings for Todd Pletcher. Channel Cat will go up against a pair of Pletcher trainees, Grade 1 winner Halladay and multiple stakes winner Largent, in the Fort Lauderdale.

“No real major issues, just a little let down. With Calumet in Lexington and me being stabled at Keeneland, we've got paddocks to turn them out and things. It wasn't anything else,” Sisterson said. “Todd did a great job with him and they just wanted to keep in that routine of turning him out in the paddocks and things like that. He's done well since we shipped him down here and we look forward to seeing him run on Saturday.”

Corey Lanerie has the assignment from Post 5 of 10 in the Fort Lauderdale. A three-time stakes winner including the 2018 Bald Eagle Derby at Laurel Park and 2019 Bowling Green (G2) at Saratoga, Channel Cat has breezed twice over the turf at Palm Meadows, Gulfstream's satellite training facility in Palm Beach County.

“I've had him for a couple of months now and he's just a typical English Channel. He's very workmanlike on the dirt, but when you put him on the grass he puts his best footsteps forward,” Sisterson said. “We don't [typically] win off a layoff but we'll expect him to improve a lot off the Fort Lauderdale and fingers crossed we can regain some of the form he had when Todd did so well with him. It might be hard to regain some of that, but he's doing well at the moment.”

A return trip to the Pegasus Turf would be in store, Sisterson said, should Channel Cat run well. Instilled Regard, last year's Fort Lauderdale winner, finished third in the 2020 Pegasus Turf.

“Absolutely, that's the goal,” Sisterson said. “Sometimes they slow down with age so we'll see if that's the case with him. Training-wise he doesn't show that he has, but you don't know until you bring them over there in the afternoon. That's the main thing.”

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