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TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs

The first Saturday in May is the ultimate goal on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. But the first Saturday in March is often a make-or-break day on the national calendar, with key stakes in Florida, California and New York providing an uptick in intensity.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12: The Strong Get Stronger

Several contenders at the top of this week's rankings solidified their status, but one new shooter debuted at No. 4 to add some intrigue as we edge past the 90-day mark to the GI Kentucky Derby.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

Arabian Knight's thorough ransacking of the GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Jan. 28 effectively slammed the door on any early-season debate about whether or not this 'TDN Rising Star' would live up to the outsized hype heaped upon him after just a single sprint win three months ago.

This speed-centric, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) not only wired the field with aplomb, but he checked a lot of boxes on the Derby intangibles list, including shipping away from his home base, handling both a sloppy racing surface and two turns, and showing that being confronted with multiple tactical in-race challenges didn't faze him in the least.

Arabian Knight broke fluidly and willingly, then effortlessly cleared the pesky 46-1 Frosted Departure (Frosted), who had inside position. Splashing onto the backstretch, Arabian Knight was looking around “a lot” according to jockey John Velazquez, who moved him off the rail to relax, maintaining a steady leading margin of 1 1/2 lengths into the far turn. The second and third favorites launched one-punch bids that soon flattened out, but the overachieving Frosted Departure was still gamely shadowing the 2-5 fave, having whittled down the lead to half a length at the head of the homestretch.

Velazquez then got after his colt, but Arabian Knight only needed two cracks of the crop and some mild hand-urging to mesh into an unmatchable deep-stretch gear that surely did not come close to scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves. “Going to the wire I was like, 'Okay, that's what I wanted to see,” Velazquez said post-win.

It's tough to tease out any “cons” to go along with all these gushing “pros” about Arabian Knight's sophomore unveiling. If there is one, it might be a very mild quibble about the Beyer Speed Figure he earned (96), which marked a slight regression from his 97 debut in a MSW on the Breeders' Cup undercard back in November

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte (Violence) is three workouts into his training for the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. Even though this 'TDN Rising Star' ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) capped his 2-year-old season with a definitive win in the Breeders' Cup, proponents of key races have long since locked in on Forte's other Grade I route victory, the Oct. 8 Breeders' Futurity S., as the defining stakes race on the Derby trail so far.

In addition to Forte's next-out tally in the GI Juvenile, that Keeneland race also yielded back-to-back next-out Grade II and III stakes winner Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro); the next-out Grade III winner Two Phil's (Hard Spun); the eventual Grade III winner and 'TDN Rising Star' Newgate (Into Mischief); one other next-out listed stakes winner, and a next-out allowance winner. In addition, the runner-up in that race, the highly acclaimed Loggins (Ghostzapper), who has yet to have a published workout in 2023, rates highly on many “wiseguy” lists as the juvenile who ran the best losing effort in a Grade I stakes last season.

There have now been 11 Kentucky Derby qualifying points races run at 1 1/16 miles. No Derby prospect since has eclipsed Forte's 100 Beyer from that race (although two have tied it), and his closing final-sixteenth fraction of :6.19 in the stretch run of the Juvenile is still fastest among the 1 1/16-mile preps.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

Trainer Todd Pletcher has been known to make judicious use of Florida allowance races in prepping his Derby prospects, and Saturday's eight-length blowout in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream left the impression this $1.3-million KEESEP colt by Tapit has the athleticism and confidence to be a major player when assigned a two-turn stakes task.

Breaking from the rail as a first-time Lasix user Feb. 4, Tapit Trice (again) was a touch slow leaving the gate. Luis Saez swooped him out to the five path, and this assertive gray picked off half the pack to carve out a sweet stalking spot, gaining incrementally down the long backstraight run. Tapit Trice built up serious momentum by the five-sixteenths pole, and when he accosted his favored stablemate for the lead, he managed to dispatch him without serious tussle.

Slicing into the home stretch with no rivals left to conquer, Tapit Trice got to gawking a bit, but Saez refocused him with one stern right-handed swat nearing the furlong marker before finishing under a moderate drive.

The 92-Beyer win generated no shortage of speculation about how Tapit Trice might have prevailed had he instead been entered in the GIII Holy Bull S. over 1 1/16 miles that same afternoon. But his first-level allowance win will prove useful in the long run considering this colt still needs to work on alertness out of the gate, a minor issue that up to this point has been overcome by raw ability and prime positioning in one-turn miles.

Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA, is a good example of a Derby prospect whose visual impressions rate quite a bit higher than the speed numbers he's earned in those races.

The 82-Beyer victor of Saturday's Holy Bull S. gave up considerable ground on both turns while always being within three lengths of striking distance from the leaders. Urged five-sixteenths out by Junior Alvarado, Rocket Can responded on cue, seizing the lead off the turn and remaining mentally intent through the stretch, maintaining a three-quarter length winning margin with a bearing-down stablemate hot on his heels.

Starting with a switch to routes in his third start, trainer Bill Mott has developed an efficient gray who now comes out running to establish key positioning, knows how to pounce off the far turn, and without hesitation throws himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns.

Rocket Can's mid-pack tactics in the Holy Bull were also against the grain of Gulfstream's short-stretch track layout for 1 1/16 miles, which had him starting from the outermost post very close to the first turn in a race that ends at the sixteenth pole. And he did his job while overcoming a moderate tempo that did no pace favors to aid his stalking style.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

Banishing has resumed training after getting cast in his stall Jan. 20, requiring sutures to close a hind-leg cut.

Trainer Brendan Walsh told Daily Racing Form last week that “nothing has been ruled out or ruled in” as far as the next race for this Godolphin homebred. He had been slated to start favored in allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds the day after his accident, but had to scratch.

With a pedigree that looks more tantalizing the closer we get to 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May (by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare), this chestnut with a distinctive white blaze won at second asking on Dec. 26 over 1 1/16 miles in New Orleans, bounding home by 8 1/2 lengths and earning a 90 Beyer for the effort.

He was a front-running force in that race, displaying measured speed while edging away under pressure before cracking open the race late. His final time of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles four races later on that card.

6) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

It's rare when you encounter a pedigree with a breeding line that features a sire (Arrogate at 122) and damsire (Bellamy Road at 120) who both posted stratospheric Beyer figures of at least 120 during their racing careers.

Cave Rock himself ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) uncorked a 101 Beyer in his 6 1/2-furlong sprint debut last summer at Del Mar, and he upped the ante to 104 with a dominant win in the GI American Pharoah S. at Santa Anita.

He was then a beaten favorite with reasonable excuses in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (hot and bothered pre-race, worked too hard through quick opening quarter).

But those imposing stats all start to fade in relevancy the longer this 'TDN Rising Star' remains without a published workout. As of Monday morning, he's the only Top 12 contender yet to hit the worktab this year, and trainer Bob Baffert now faces a race against the clock to launch a campaign that includes at least one prep race between now and May 6.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

On the face of it, 'TDN Rising Star' Faustin's second-place finish in the four-horse, seven-furlong Jan. 29 GII San Vicente S. was only a so-so effort. But from a longer-term developmental perspective, the race could still end up being a useful stepping-stone.

The winner was his stablemate, Havnameltdown (Uncaptured), who looks, acts, and performs like a true one-turn stakes colt. Havnameltdown also had everything his own way on the front end, and while Faustin did show some flashes of interest–like diving into an opening at the rail when jockey Ramon Vazquez shook the reins to cue him three-eighths out–this son of Curlin (out of a Hard Spun mare) clearly needs more real estate to uncoil effectively.

Trainer Bob Baffert said post-race that Havnameltdown “will stay one turn. Faustin, he was kind of a grinding slow, he wants to go longer. [But] you try to get outs into them so they'll learn and you'll figure [them out]. The problem is that if you break your maiden first time out, you have to run in stakes. It is that way all over the country. Just getting these races into them it is important. Faustin, you can tell he is not there yet. [But] once he goes two turns, you'll see a big difference in him. He wat trying to get there, but he was running against a top-class sprinter.”

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Signator, a $1.7-million OBSAPR son of Tapit, is gearing up for his 2023 campaign after being sidelined late last fall with a wrenched ankle.

His professional, stalking score while driving through at the rail in an Oct. 14 MSW mile at Aqueduct was eye-catching enough to earn 'TDN Rising Star' status, and he's now three breezes into his work pattern at Payson Park.

“I haven't really picked out a place to run him yet, but it won't be long,” trainer Shug McGuaghey said on Friday, adding that Gulfstream or Tampa are the two likely comeback spots. “He's grown, gotten bigger, and filled out the way we want him to.”
McGuaghey is quite familiar with the female side of Signator's pedigree, having trained the dam (Pension), the second dam (Furlough), and great-grandsire Easy Goer.

“Signator is a lot different than Pension. She was very high-strung, and just broke her maiden. But some of the others were fairly nice,” he added with understatement.

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

This son of son of 2017 Belmont S. victor Tapwrit ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; EASMAY $340,000) has compiled a 3-for-3 record, but he'll be due for a dive into the graded end of the stakes pool in his next outing, which is likely to come at either Fair Grounds or Oaklawn.

A 'TDN Rising Star,' Victory Formation sports a decent MSW-allowance-ungraded stakes progression, with ascending winning Beyer figures of 81-85-91.

Trainer Brad Cox has described him as an intelligent colt who “doesn't overdo it,” which he believes will only be a plus as the distances increase along with the demands of tougher competition.

Victory Formation's current company lines could use some beefing up: The three horses who ran 3-4-5 behind him in the Jan. 1, short-stretch Smarty Jones S. all failed to win in next-out stakes, with all three of them regressing on the Beyer scale.

10) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Chester Broman & Mary R. Broman (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: 4-1-1-0, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

When a Bob Baffert-trained colt requires four starts to break his maiden, that usually relegates him to the “B” list within a stable of sophomores that annually fields a pretty deep bench.

I wouldn't count Hejazi out of the mix based on that profile, though. The $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, this New York-bred son of Bernardini ran better in his trio of defeats than those races might seem on paper.

A step slow out of the gate in his Aug. 20 Del Mar sprint debut, Hejazi rushed up to lead between calls, backed off, then fired again to land second behind an eventual grass stakes winner.

Start No. 2 saw Hejazi drawn way out in post 10 sprinting 5 ½ furlongs, and he flashed wide speed behind wire-to-wire stablemate Speed Boat Beach (Bayern), who established a track-record clocking and has subsequently gone on to win two turf stakes.

Start No. 3 was an ambitious push to try and get Hejazi to the Breeders' Cup, and as a maiden against winners in the American Pharoah S. he managed third behind stablemate Cave Rock, the eventual favorite and runner-up in the Juvenile.

A three-month freshening did Hejazi a world of good, and he finally hit the winner's circle going 6 ½ furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 15, swatting away two challengers inside the final half a furlong (97 Beyer).

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee, who just hit his third birthday Feb. 6, was a surprising sort straight out of the gate, winning over seven furlongs in his Sept. 3 Saratoga debut at 14-1 odds.

In three 1 1/16 miles since then, he's overachieved without being overwhelming, winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 and the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 by rallying off the tailgate with wide, steady drives.

The only loss to date for this $200,000 KEESEP grad came in start No. 2, and considering Instant Coffee was making the jump straight into Grade I company while going around two turns for the first time in the key-race Breeders' Futurity S., he actually managed a decent fourth behind eventual divisional champ Forte.

Instant Coffee's race spacing and foundation both leave room for continued improvement, with trainer Brad Cox indicating that one or two additional stakes in the Fair Grounds prep series are on his radar.

12) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $69,750. Last Start: Won Sar Maiden Special Weight, Aug. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

It's now been half a year since Disarm has been in the entries. This 'TDN Rising Star' (based on his 6 ¼-length, 86-Beyer Saratoga sprint score Aug. 6) has been breezing somewhat under the radar at Fair Grounds, but he's now four works in and up to five furlongs.

“He's training with anticipation of him making it back to the Derby trail,” owner/breeder Ron Winchell texted to TDN over the weekend. As for a target race, Winchell wrote that he and trainer Steve Asmussen “will know more after his next work.”

Last summer, Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy. Looks like he's gonna stretch out beautifully. We will definitely get to dream with him for a while.”

Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons, and at the time, Asmussen predicted a return sometime during the New Orleans winter/spring meet.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: The Strong Get Stronger appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Derby Top 12: The Point Race Begins

The first week of January doesn't have much in common with the first Saturday in May–with the exception that the inaugural TDN Top 12 has arrived to herald the coming of the seemingly far-off GI Kentucky Derby season. Get tied on and enjoy the ride.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $86,025. Last start: 1st Keeneland Maiden Special Weight, Nov. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

It wasn't too long ago that ranking a colt who has zero experience beyond the maiden ranks as your Derby kingpin in the dead of winter would have been an audacious selection. But now, in this era where a Triple Crown “foundation” often consists of just two or three sophomore prep races, heading a list with a lightly experienced contender like 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight isn't all that outlandish.

This powerful son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP; $2.3 million OBSAPR sale-topper) didn't just “debut” on the Breeders' Cup undercard–his presence in Lexington on racing's championship weekend was a well-orchestrated unveiling by trainer Bob Baffert for owner Zedan Racing Stables. Fast and fluid off the mark going seven furlongs, this bay responded to rating from John Velazquez but still drew away responsively to win by a dazzling 7 1/4 lengths (97 Beyer Speed Figure).

“We took a big chance bringing him here to run,” Baffert said post-win. “Johnny asked me, 'How Good is he?' I said, 'You ride him like you rode Uncle Mo, because I think he's Uncle Mo.' And the way he moves; he's been working with older horses-unbelievable.”

Baffert told TDN via text on Sunday he's not ready to commit to a particular comeback race and that, “We are going slow with him. No rush to run him.” But Arabian Knight is now five works into his training at Santa Anita, including a bullet six furlongs on Dec. 30, so he's got to be getting close.

For the second straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert from the Derby related to his under-appeal equine drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. While this issue plays out in the courts and at the racing commission level, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on the horses and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte stamped himself as the crop-topper among up to 1 1/16 miles, and he looms as the deserving favorite for the divisional championship in the Eclipse Award voting. Two Grade I wins in his only two route attempts underscore that this son of Violence has already checked some important boxes along his development arc.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has outlined a two-prep path to Louisville that includes a sophomore debut in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S., followed by either the GI Florida Derby or the GI Blue Grass S. This two-time auction grad ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) has proven capable of carving out fortuitous trips while negotiating large fields, largely thanks to precision far-turn targeting over short-stretch configurations at Keeneland by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Owned in partnership by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, Forte outmuscled a tenacious runner-up by wresting back the lead in deep stretch of the 14-horse GI Breeders' Futurity S., and in the 10-horse GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile he adeptly reeled in the odds-on favorite while encountering no serious challengers late in the lane (100 Beyer).

Forte's biggest Derby obstacle might involve bucking a daunting historical trend: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Derby wins (Nyquist and Street Sense) from 38 runnings.

3) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style reminiscent of his sire, Arrogate, has been likened to a big, powerful football fullback by trainer Bob Baffert. But despite being very mature-looking physically, this imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) got so keyed up prior to his second-place finish as the beaten fave in the Breeders' Cup that the mental duress surely cost him some on-track energy.

Owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, this two-time Grade I winner unleashed a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never appearing close to being fully extended.

But it was a different story a month later in the Juvenile, when Cave Rock was committed to the lead outside of a 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter, had trouble settling, then took command about halfway home with foes nipping at his heels. Approaching the far turn, it initially looked as if Cave Rock was cresting to a high cruising speed with a short-stretch finish ahead and main rival Forte six lengths behind.

But Forte was just getting wound up while Cave Rock was feeling the effects of his toil, and although Cave Rock initially met Forte's challenge, he came unhinged under left-handed stick work while languishing too long on his left lead in the stretch. He was no match for the winner, but Cave Rock left the impression that a better-focused version of him could be capable of reversing that result.

4) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $56,950. Last start: 1st Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 17. KY Derby Points: 0.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was bet down to second favoritism debuting at Aqueduct Nov. 6. A bit raw at the break of a one-turn mile from the outermost post, Tapit Trice got a decent schooling tucking in behind, then splitting horses before finishing with interest and galloping out ahead of the only two horses who beat him (73 Beyer).

Owned in partnership by Whisper Hill Farm and breeder Gainesway, this Todd Pletcher trainee learned from that experience by overcoming trip adversity to score in start number two, another one-mile-try, as the 17-10 fave Dec. 17 over a sealed, muddy Aqueduct surface.

Off slowly, Tapit Trice lagged but got maneuvered to the eight path to avoid getting pelted with kickback. It took him awhile to get into gear, tagging on to the end of the first flight about a half mile from home, then commencing a field-looping bid way out in the six path. He engaged the two leaders off the bend, maintained the upper hand when enduring some brushing and bumping from the outward-shifting second fave, then nailed the win by a neck without seeming one bit fazed by the stretch fight (89 Beyer).

The effort wasn't a spectacular, blow-away victory. But Tapit Trice completed his assigned task very capably while demonstrating there is raw, Derby-quality talent beneath a still-unpolished surface.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

A chestnut with a distinctively jagged blaze, this Godolphin homebred by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare started his career Nov. 13 in a one-turn-mile MSW at Churchill, breaking from post 12 and racing in the 10 path early while cruising up to be within two lengths of the lead through a well-contested pace.

Banishing was four wide into the turn, quickened 3 ½ furlongs out, then got within a nostril of the lead just before the field hit the top of the stretch. He initially seemed to tire from that stout middle move, but sparked back to life late in the lane only to lose a photo for fourth behind a favored winner and a third-place horse who came back to win at 3-5 odds in a subsequent Gulfstream MSW.

On Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds, this Brendan Walsh trainee added Lasix, stretched out to 1 1/16 miles, and was sent off as the 2-1 chalk. Unhurried out of the gate, he established position at the rail in a three-way go and kept edging away under pressure. Banishing was headed off the final turn but immediately met that affront, throttling open late while leaving the second and third faves reeling in his 8 ½-length wake.

He earned a 90 Beyer, and his maiden-breaking final clocking of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles later on the card.

6) LOGGINS (c, Ghostzapper–Beyond Blame, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, Steve Landers Racing LLC, Martin S. Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke, Titletown Racing Stables, Kueber Racing LLC, Big Easy Racing LLC, and Winners Win; B-Popatop, LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $460,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $175,500. Last start: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, Oct. 8. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Loggins ($460,000 FTSAUG) went off favored in the “loaded” (five next-out winners) Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, and if there was such an award as the best losing effort in a juvenile stakes, his second-place try behind the No. 2-ranked Forte would have slam-dunked it for 2022.

Running back in just three weeks after a 6 ½-furlong MSW winning debut, Loggins (trained by Brad Cox and carrying the colors of Spendthrift Farm in a 10-way partnership) established strong early inside positioning amid a crush of first-turn traffic, then was content to concede the lead while covered up in third at the fence on the backstretch.

He seized the top spot 4 ½ furlongs from the wire, and although the bid initially appeared premature, Loggins confidently chugged homeward before being accosted by Forte at the head of the lane. Forte muscled in on Loggins with one furlong left, but the less-experienced Loggins gamely responded by clawing back the lead for about six jumps before Forte eked out a neck victory at the finish.

Back in October, Cox had outlined a break for Loggins that would have the colt off for about 45 days and back in his Fair Grounds barn by December. But as of Sunday, Cox told TDN via text that Loggins still “required a little extra time” away and that his return to the track would be “soon” with no specific prep race as the target.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last start: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin, a high-energy gray whose damsire and sire (Hard Spun and Curlin), ran second and third in the 2007 Derby, achieved 'TDN Rising Star' status in his Dec. 26 debut when he cuffed around a MSW sprint crew at Santa Anita in a manner more impressive than his 2 ¾-length winning margin and 89 Beyer might suggest.

Off a beat slow, this Bob Baffert trainee for owner Michael Lund Petersen was quickly hustled into contention by jockey Ramon Vazquez, but the hole they were aiming for closed just as the field cleared the gap. Continuously kept busy, Faustin accelerated as asked while Vazquez kept shifting laterally in an effort to pick a stalking spot, twice coming off the inside and then dropping back near the fence again in his run down the backstretch and through the turn.

At the head of the homestretch, Faustin lost momentum (but just momentarily) when he twice had to be snatched off heels and switched outward to clear rivals. But once he saw daylight, this colt ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) didn't need much encouragement to kick into a willing overdrive just outside the sixteenth pole.

Faustin was digging in and appeared to be relishing the task; in this era of top prospects racing only sparingly, he has already cleared the “overcomes adversity” hurdle well ahead of most of his peers.

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

With a pedigree topped by Tapit out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Signator wasn't expected to excel sprinting in his Sept. 16 debut. But after racing a bit greenly in upper stretch, this $1.7 million OBSAPR colt made the most out of that experience by finishing with a visual flourish through the final sixteenth to gain second before galloping out with purpose past the winner.

Start number two was a muddy mile over a drying-out Aqueduct surface, and as the 3-5 favorite, Signator absorbed some bumping out of the gate, then raced with his head cocked toward the infield under a snug grab down the backstretch. Through most of the far turn, Javier Castellano kept Signator on hold near the fence behind a four-horse wall while gambling that inside passage would open up, and when it did, Signator pulsed on through like a pro, earning 'TDN Rising Star' placement in the process.

Owned by an eight-way partnership, Signator was scratched from the Nov. 6 GII Nashua S. because of a wrenched ankle that has reportedly since healed. He rejoined trainer Shug McGuaghey's Payson Park string in Florida three weeks ago and just hit the work tab on Dec. 31. His pair of relatively low 73 Beyers might be cause for pause for some Derby prognosticators, but Signator rates higher on the “how he did it” scale rather than “how fast.”

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

Well-bet, wire-to-wire winners have now captured the ungraded (but points-awarding) Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn in five of the past six years after the coast-to-coast score by Victory Formation ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; $340,000 EASMAY) on Sunday.

A 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' owned in partnership by Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, this son of Tapwrit's heavy lifting on Jan. 1 consisted largely of clearing a pesky 56-1 shot while breaking from post eight.

After an up-tempo opening quarter of :23.20, Flavien Prat reeled off consecutive quarters of :24.55, :24.61 and :25.78 to coast home unopposed by three lengths at 3-5 odds in 1:38.14 for the short-stretch mile (91 Beyer).

“This horse has a great mind. He doesn't overdo it in the morning. He settles and I think the farther the better,” said trainer Brad Cox. ” He's got a lot of natural speed.”

10) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms. B-Nursery Place & Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $46,750. Last Start: Aqueduct Maiden win Nov. 19. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP buy for Centennial Farms, was sent to trainer Todd Pletcher. According to DRF's Formulator, that owner/trainer partnership is a first (at least as far back as the database goes), and it got off to a good start when this nice-striding son of Blame won at first asking sprinting 6 ½ furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19.

Javier Castellano asked Litigate for just enough speed to attain a sweet stalking spot behind a three-way battle for the lead, then patiently took the overland route four deep through the turn. Litigate responded to several judicious cracks of the crop in upper stretch, was still third at the eighth pole, but finished up respectably under brisk hand urging to win by three-quarters of a length (76 Beyer).

Litigate will next try a first-level allowance/optional claimer Dec. 8 at Gulfstream. Every entrant in the field of eight is first-time Lasix, with none of them entered for a tag.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) sprung a 14-1 upset at Saratoga in his seven-furlong debut, then was one of four next-out stakes winners to emerge from the key Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, a race in which he rallied from tenth to get fourth. That effort was good enough to merit favoritism in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 26 at Churchill.

This $200,000 KEESEP colorbearer for Gold Square, LLC, and trainer Brad Cox was slightly hesitant at the start, then kicked into a smooth stride. After going four wide into the first turn, Instant Coffee tucked into the three path to be a midpack fifth behind a slow pace down the backstraight, then was roused assertively by Luis Saez some 3 ½ furlongs from home while again four deep on the bend.

He gave up even more ground off the final turn, but doing so freed Instant Coffee from a logjam of tiring horses toward the inside, and he responded to Saez' repeated rousing with a grinding tenacity. He momentarily shied from the outward shifting of a more physically imposing rival shortly after grabbing a brief lead at the eighth pole, but only for a stride or two before leveling off with purpose to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

Instant Coffee's lack of progression based on Beyers (debut of 85, then 81 and 82) kept him from being ranked higher at this early juncture of the season.

12) JACE'S ROAD (c, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver Deputy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Colts Neck Stables (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-0-1, $126,800. Last Start: Won Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kentucky Derby Points: 13.

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, a $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, got back to his winning ways in the Gun Runner S. Dec. 26 as the second betting choice after what trainer Brad Cox had described as a “meltdown” eighth-place try as the beaten fave in his previous stakes attempt.

Owned in partnership by West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables, Jace's Road's Fair Grounds performance is best described as a no-nonsense wiring through moderate-tempo splits.

He got a bit of a break when the favorite stumbled at the start and was relegated to chase mode for most of the race, and the only challenger within sniffing distance of his 5 ½-length winning margin (90 Beyer) was a pick-up-the-pieces 23-1 long shot.

The post Derby Top 12: The Point Race Begins appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Who Looks Good: Trackside Impressions From the Breeders’ Cup

LEXINGTON, KY–Over the past few days that I've been in Lexington, I've been asked the same question quite a few times by friends and family who are not in attendance. “Who looks good?”

So, I decided I'd share my opinions on who has stood out this week with our TDN readers as well. Quick disclaimer: I have not seen every single Breeders' Cup horse, but I have seen many of them.

It is the World Championships, so, of course, every horse here looks fantastic. This list is just a few of the horses who have really caught my eye in the mornings based on physical condition, mental composure and/or movement over the racetrack. It is purely based on trackside impressions, not on past performances.

FLIGHTLINE (Tapit) – Classic

As expected, the unbeaten sensation Flightline looks as good as he runs. I had the privilege of watching the GI Breeders' Cup Classic favorite grow up from the time he was a young foal until he sold at Fasig-Tipton's Saratoga Sale thanks to his wonderful breeder Jane Lyon. This was the first time I had seen him since and he certainly did not disappoint. Everything about the striking bay just screams athlete. He gobbles up ground in an effortless manner and the only indication of the amount of pure force and power being exerted is his rider Juan Leyva's tight hold and defensive stature in the saddle as he tries to rein in what trainer John Sadler referred to as a hurricane. Flightline is all business both on the track and when touring the barn or paddock. He has the cat-like walk all bloodstock agents and paddock analysts look for and never turned a hair despite the throng of media following his every move all week. In short, Flightline is exactly as advertised.

MALATHAAT (Curlin) – Distaff

To sum it up in one word, Malathaat is a queen. She oozes class in everything she does. Between her big white blaze, beautiful physical and eager gallop, the Shadwell colorbearer immediately grabs the attention of anyone in her presence. Trainer Todd Pletcher has been sending her out with the pony this week as rider Amelia Green said the filly knows the race is near and has been ready to roll in the mornings. The bay has been quite pleased with her sidekick and bounds off readily as soon as she is turned free from him. Her perfect record at Keeneland already indicates her love for this surface and she skipped over it with ease each morning.

NEST (Curlin) – Distaff

I have had a hard time trying to decide whether I prefer the aforementioned champion Malathaat or her year-younger stablemate Nest, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this year. Unfortunately, seeing them both in the flesh did not help me choose as Nest is also quite eye-catching on the racetrack. If Malathaat is the queen, then Nest is certainly the princess. She bounces out alongside the pony and stands at attention as she waits to be let loose. Once given the signal, the bay leaps into action and coasts long on cruise control. Like her barnmate, Nest could not look any better in flesh, coat or movement.

CAVE ROCK (Arrogate) – Juvenile

Cave Rock is another whose physical certainly matches up with his strong performances. Despite his plain brown wrapper, the Bob Baffert runner immediately attracts the eye when he enters the track. He is very good-minded, especially for a 2-year-old who has never raced outside of California. He remained focused as he jogged backwards alongside assistant trainer Jimmy Barnes and kept that focus during his gallops and even during his paddock tour Wednesday. The paddock was full with media awaiting Flightline and Cave Rock strolled along beside his groom like a dog out for a walk, never turning a hair. His calm and cool attitude is reminiscent of his late, great sire. Back to his gallops, the dark bay is very light on his feet and travels over the Keeneland surface quite nicely.

CARAVEL (Mizzen Mast) – Turf Sprint

While she is a longshot on paper, Caravel could not look better in the mornings. The petite gray travels like a freight train, charging around the Keeneland oval like a mare on a mission with her neck bowed and back nice and round. When I saw her in the paddock later on, Caravel walked along with her head low and relaxed, quite the contrast from her on-track persona.

MODERN GAMES (IRE) (Dubawi {Ire}) – Mile

Modern Games just looks like the happiest horse on the planet. He always has his ears pricked and a very pleasant expression on his face, no matter what he is doing. The chestnut, who seeks his second World Championships win, thunders over the track powerfully, ensuring he is not missed by any onlookers. The European invader's chestnut coat gleams like a new penny and he is fit as a fiddle.

REGAL GLORY (Animal Kingdom) – Mile

Regal Glory is just an extremely cool horse in every sense of the word. The flashy chestnut has the presence to match her accomplishments when she enters the track. Training late when the track is quieter, Regal Glory jogs onto the track with enthusiasm every morning, head held high and ears at full attention as she takes in her adoring fans. She sails over the dirt with ease and will only look better on the turf course. The Peter Brant colorbearer is another who could not look better as far as coat and muscle condition.

EPICENTER (Not This Time) – Classic

If his morning appearance is any indication, Epicenter looks ready to rumble. The bay is a big ball of muscle with a gleaming coat to match. The sophomore has been under a snug hold by his rider and/or attached to a pony at his trainer's side each morning, which is an indication of his readiness. Epicenter travels over the track with big, powerful strides and is quite at home over the Lexington oval.

HONORABLE MENTIONS: Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) (Sprint), Arrest Me Red (Pioneerof the Nile) (Turf Sprint), Laurel River (Into Mischief) (Dirt Mile), Taiba (Gun Runner) (Classic), Atomically (Girvin) (Juvenile Fillies), Forte (Violence) (Juvenile), Order of Australia (Ire) (Australia {GB}) (Mile), Life Is Good (Into Mischief) (Classic), Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow) (Classic), Oxymore (Astern {Aus}) (Juvenile Turf Sprint), and Andthewinneris (Oscar Performance) (Juvenile Turf).

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