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Who Will Be the Leading First-Crop Sire?

In Thursday's TDN, we talked to four top judges of equine talent who had a divergence of opinion on who this year's leading first-crop sire would be. Who comes out on top in this edition?

EDDIE ROSEN

Top Pick: Vino Rosso (Curlin–Mythical Bride, by Street Cry {Ire}). Spendthrift Farm, 2023 fee: $15,000.

Full disclosure, as a member of Team Repole that selected and raced Vino Rosso, I am obviously biased. However, I sincerely believe he will be the leading freshman sire. While he, as a Curlin, was slow-maturing and peaked as a 4-year-old, the 2-year-olds we saw this spring appear to be surprisingly precocious. If forced to recuse myself, my second choice would be Mitole. He was exceptionally fast and he should pass that speed on to his offspring.

Under-the-radar pick: Maximus Mischief (Into Mischief–Reina Maria, by Songandaprayer). Spendthrift Farm: 2023 fee: $7,500.

My slightly under-the-radar pick would be Maximus Mischief, a son of Into Mischief out of a Songandaprayer mare whose yearlings were well received.

DAVID INGORDO

Top pick: Vino Rosso

I'll go with Vino Rosso. We broke a bunch of them at Mayberry's. They were really smart, good-moving horses. They were kind of plainish, which you'd expect from the pedigree. But once you got them under tack and got them moving they were pretty impressive. I don't expect them to win 4 1/2-furlong races at Keeneland or early in the Churchill meet, but by the time we get to Del Mar and Saratoga when the really heavy 2-year-old races start, he should get some winners. I can see him having a Breeders' Cup winner. I know he developed a little slower, but they don't look like horses that are going to take forever to mature.

Under-the-radar pick: Catalina Cruiser (Union Rags–Sea Gull, by Mineshaft). Lane's End, 2023 fee: $15,000.

I really like Catalina Cruiser. He had brilliant speed and is a physically imposing horse who comes from a good family. We raised the horse at Lane's End and we broke him at the Mayberry's. We bought him for Mr. Hronis and John Sadler trained him. He was kind of an unlucky horse to not win a Grade I. He set a stakes record in the True North on Belmont weekend. That's a race that has been around a long time. His offspring look the part; they look like their sire. We bought two at the 2-year-old sale and we bought a yearling by him, so we are supporting him. I could see him becoming a War Front or Distorted Humor-type stallion, a sprinter who had a lot of speed, maybe didn't win at the top level but imparted their speed to their offspring. I can see him really, really making it in that mold.

ZOE CADMAN

Top pick: Mitole (Eskendereya–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie). Spendthrift Farm, 2023 fee: $15,000.

My top pick is Mitole. I loved his babies at the recent OBS March sale. They look to be quick and early, but with quality and scope enough to go on around two turns.

Under-the-radar pick: Vino Rosso

Vino Rosso will be my sleeper. By Curlin, you would think these need all the time in the world. However, it was really surprising to see several come out flying at the OBS March sale. Obviously, they will come alive the latter part of the year. But don't be shocked to see some early ones, too.

TERRY FINLEY

Top pick: Catalina Cruiser

We purchased a really sharp colt of his in March who is going to Cherie DeVaux shortly. We liked them as yearlings. They stand up in front of you with class and poise and are good-boned and athletic. Catalina Cruiser was also a similar racehorse to freshman sire favorite Omaha Beach in that he was effective both sprinting and routing. Those types tend to make the best stallions. I think he has a chance to make a good bit of noise this year.

Under-the-radar pick: Maximus Mischief

My under-the-radar pick is Maximus Mischief, who has the number power that Catalina Cruiser lacks. He bred 196 mares in his first year at stud, so he's already emulating his high-volume sire and he has a close physical resemblance to Into Mischief as well. Several of his 2-year-olds sold well at March OBS. They are good movers and seem very sensible. Maximus Mischief was a very nice 2-year-old himself; some people forget he was one of the Kentucky Derby favorites before he got injured. Big upside.

SEAN PERL

Top pick: Mitole

My top pick for this year's first crop sire is Mitole. His offspring were supported greatly at the yearling sales and he stamped them really well, showcasing them in all shapes and sizes. I personally purchased some for my clients to both race and pinhook. For a bubble-year horse whose book is full, that says a lot in itself. Trained by Steve Asmussen, for whom I have the utmost respect as a horseman and a person who needs no introduction, and being supported by Mr. and Mrs. Heiligbrodt in the breeding shed and at sales, connections who know how to win in all facets of life, I would have to imagine they'll come out running this spring on the ultra competitive Kentucky circuit straight into the Saratoga summertime maiden races.

Under-the-radar pick: Flameaway (Scat Daddy–Vulcan Rose, by Fusaichi Pegasus), Darby Dan, 2023 fee: $7,500.

My under-the-radar sire is Flameaway, a son of Scat Daddy who is an absolutely stunning physical himself. He won races from distances of 4.5f to 1 1/16 miles and stakes on both turf and dirt. I feel as the year goes on, we will hear from Flameaway's offspring more and more.

In tomorrow's TDN: more first-crop sire picks. Want to send in your selections? Email suefinley@thetdn.com.

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Who is Most Likely to be Leading Freshman Sire of 2023?

With the 2-year-old sales season having kicked off and the first 'baby' races of the year ready to get going in a few weeks, laser focus will be placed on the up-and-coming first-crop stallions. Rightfully so, as we all hunt in earnest for the next breakout young sire. Could there possibly be another Gun Runner in the freshman class of 2023?

A total of 16 young guns in North America have 50 or more current 2-year-olds resulting from their first covers in 2020. A great many more have fewer than 50, but numbers beget opportunities. The leading freshman sire of 2023 is likely to be one of those 16.

It's also a good bet that Spendthrift Farm may repeat Bolt d'Oro's 2022 success as the leading freshman sire, as four of the top five freshmen by number of 2-year-olds stand at the Central Kentucky Farm.

The 16 newcomers are concentrated in Kentucky, with one each also in New York and Florida. What almost all have in common is plenty of sire power behind them. Including two freshmen by Curlin and two by Into Mischief, all of the sires of these leading 16 freshmen have thrown Grade I winners themselves, but not all of their sire sons have done the same.

Conformation, dam side, and athleticism of the new 2-year-olds aside, let's examine the hard evidence based solely on elite performance of other sons at stud by the same sires. Which of these 'Sweet 16' is most likely to find success based on how other sons by their sires have fared?

Audible and Maximus Mischief, both by Into Mischief, standing for $25,000 at WinStar Farm, 150 2-year-olds (Audible), and for $7,500 at Spendthrift Farm, 135 2-year-olds (Maximus Mischief)

It's impossible to overlook Into Mischief, who is coming off his fourth general sire championship. He's got an embarrassment of riches with a plethora of up-and-coming young sire sons in the next few years, including Kentucky Derby winners Authentic and Mandaloun, as well as four-time GISW and Breeders' Cup winner Life Is Good. Getting the first jump are GI Florida Derby winner Audible and GII Remsen S. winner Maximus Mischief. Into Mischief's first major sire sons are Goldencents and Practical Joke, both of whom have already sired a U.S. GISW. In addition, Practical Joke has hot Derby prospect and MGSW Practical Move. Audible was particularly popular at OBS March, with his top two each working in :10 and bringing $500,000 and $425,000, respectively.

And the second freshman by Into Mischief for 2023:

Catalina Cruiser, by Union Rags, standing for $15,000 at Lane's End, 110 2-year-olds

Holding the distinction of being the fourth generation of his sire line (Union Rags-Dixie Union-Dixieland Band) to stand at Lane's End, five-time graded winner Catalina Cruiser could be the first big-time sire son for Union Rags. The latter's only other sire son in a major market is Free Drop Billy, whose first-crop sophomores have not yet broken through on the graded stage. Catalina Cruiser's top 2-year-old specimen at OBS March breezed in :21 and brought $400,000 post sale.

Catholic Boy, by More Than Ready, standing for $15,000 at Claiborne Farm, 104 2-year-olds

Any horse that can win the GI Belmont Derby on grass in July and the GI Travers S. on dirt just over a month later has to be taken seriously. The late More Than Ready was the dual hemisphere phenom whose sire sons include Australia's late Sebring (Aus), sire of at least eight Group 1 winners; the exported Verrazano with one U.S. Grade I winner and two Chilean Group 1 winners; Gimmethegreenlight (Aus) with six Group 1 winners spread between Australia and South Africa; Daredevil, whose first-crop exploits included both a Classic winner and a GI Kentucky Oaks winner; and Custom for Carlos, who stands in Louisiana and came up with a U.S. Grade I winner despite averaging just 45 foals a year.

Demarchelier (GB), by Dubawi (Ire), standing for $5,000 at Claiborne Farm, 70 2-year-olds

Even as the first known son of Dubawi at stud in the U.S., GSW Demarchelier will not suffer from pedigree anonymity as Dubawi is arguably the top sire in Europe. At least five of his sire sons have been responsible for Grade I or Group 1 winners on their own: Al Kazeem (GB), Makfi (GB), New Bay (GB), Night of Thunder (Ire), and Poet's Voice (GB).

Enticed, by Medaglia d'Oro, standing for $5,000 at Darley, 103 2-year-olds

Like Curlin, Into Mischief, and War Front, who also have freshmen sons with first juveniles this year, Medaglia d'Oro is one of the elite stallions of Kentucky with the sustained success of umpteen Grade I winners to his credit. Among his sons, two have sired Grade I winners to date, with Violence holding the top spot as far and away his best sire son so far. Violence has four GISWs, including current Derby favorite Forte. Medaglia d'Oro also has Astern (Aus) with a Group 1 winner in Australia and Bolt d'Oro as last year's top freshman who has not yet broken through with a Grade I winner. Enticed himself was precocious, winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. and placing in the GI Champagne S. at two.

Flameaway, by Scat Daddy, standing for $7,500 at Darby Dan Farm, 116 2-year-olds

MGSW Flameaway's late sire ignited early with his first runners and his success just magnified after his death at age 11. Among the late Scat Daddy's sons to sire a Group 1 winner to date is his undisputed sire son leader No Nay Never, as well as the classy Caravaggio. And then there's Triple Crown winner Justify, who gives the sense he's knocking on the Grade I door after his first American and Australian crops yielded five graded/group winners.

Leofric, by Candy Ride (Arg), standing for $7,500 at Darby Dan Farm, 56 2-year-olds

After the success of Gun Runner, Candy Ride sons are a hot commodity and he will have a steady pipeline of sons with first runners in the coming years, including champion Game Winner and MGISW Vekoma (both with first yearlings this year), as well as GISW Rock Your World (first weanlings this year). GI Clark H. winner Leofric is the early bird among the group that follows Candy Ride's two sire sons who have achieved out-of-this-world success: Gun Runner and Twirling Candy. The former, with only two crops to race, has sired a spectacular six GISWs and another five Grade I performers. The latter is no slouch either, accounting for seven Grade I winners from his eight crops to race. Both also have sired Classic winners. Clearly, when Candy Ride hits, he hits big.

Mitole, by Eskendereya, standing for $15,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 158 2-year-olds

A champion and MGISW who helped contribute to his dam being crowned Broodmare of the Year for 2021, Mitole is one of three freshmen who are charting new territory for their own sires by attempting to become their first established son in the sire ranks. Eskendereya was exported to Japan in 2015 when Mitole was just a foal. The stallion's only other known sire son in the U.S. is Mor Spirit, who stands alongside Mitole at Spendthrift and has yet to have a graded performer in his first crop (now sophomores). Buyers at OBS March liked what they saw: the top three Mitole 2-year-olds all worked in :10 and brought $350,000, $325,000, and $300,000, respectively.

Omaha Beach, by War Front, standing for $30,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 138 2-year-olds

The brilliant Omaha Beach, a triple Grade I winner, looks every bit the part of a stallion who's going to make it. No matter how you look at it–whether it's his sire, the bottom side of his pedigree, his own race performance, his first yearlings–he's hard to fault. Among his first 2-year-olds at OBS March was a $690,000 filly who worked in :9 4/5. The venerable War Front, sire of a surplus of Grade I winners, has had three sons who have made it to the big stage as sires thus far: Declaration of War with Grade I/Group 1 winners in the U.S., Australia, France, and Canada; The Factor with two U.S. GISWs; and Hit It a Bomb with an Argentinean Group 1 winner. Omaha Beach and Classic winner War of Will (first yearlings this year) are among War Front's top sire prospects yet.

Preservationist, by Arch, standing for $10,000 at Airdrie Stud, 76 2-year-olds

GI Woodward S. winner Preservationist and fellow GISW Instilled Regard (whose first foals are currently yearlings) are the last top horses by the late Arch, who died in 2016 just prior to the breeding season, to go to stud. Arch has had two sons sire GISWs: the late Archarcharch, whose last crops were in Korea, and Blame, who has sired five GISWs and counting.

Solomini and Vino Rosso, both by Curlin, standing for $6,500 at McMahon of Saratoga Thoroughbreds, 78 2-year-olds (Solomini), and for $15,000 at Spendthrift Farm, 178 2-year-olds (Vino Rosso)

Is there any limit to Curlin's prowess as a sire? Last year, he topped his own sire and grandsire (Smart Strike and Mr. Prospector)–who tied with a dozen other stallions by siring two Eclipse winners in a single year–when he made history as the only sire to ever have three individual Eclipse winners in a single year. Like Candy Ride and Into Mischief, he's got a number of sons with first crops to the races on the horizon. This year, it's his champion and GI Breeders' Cup Classic winner Vino Rosso and his MGISP Solomini who will send their first juveniles to the races. Curlin has no fewer than four sons who have sired Grade I winners: Good Magic (whose first crop is just three this year), Connect and Keen Ice (whose first crops are four), and Palace Malice. Both Vino Rosso and Solomini had a number of first juveniles at OBS March: Vino Rosso's top was a :9 4/5 breezer who hammered for $550,000 and Solomini's best worked in :10 and brought $200,000.

St Patrick's Day, by Pioneerof the Nile, standing for $3,500 at Journeyman Stallions, 71 2-year-olds

A maiden winner at two and graded-placed at three, St Patrick's Day has the lightest race record of this group, but he's a full-brother to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah. Although the late Pioneerof the Nile has a number of very useful sons at stud, American Pharoah is the first who has broken through with any Grade 1/Group 1 winners. He has a half-dozen of those to his name.

World of Trouble, by Kantharos, standing for $5,000 at Hill 'n' Dale Farm, 89 2-year-olds

A wickedly fast GISW on both dirt and turf, World of Trouble might be the biggest wild card among the freshmen sire ranks in terms of sire power. The only other son of Kantharos at stud in a major market is Bucchero, who stands in Florida and has yet to have a graded performer in his first crop (now sophomores).

Yoshida (Jpn), by Heart's Cry (Jpn), standing for $10,000 at WinStar Farm, 101 2-year-olds

A Grade I winner on both dirt and turf, Yoshida is the only known son of Sunday Silence's Heart's Cry standing in Kentucky. Among Heart's Cry's sire sons is Just a Way (Jpn), who has a 2-year-old champion and Group 1 winner in Japan. Heart's Cry just passed away Mar. 9.

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First-Crop Yearling Previews: Catalina Cruiser

The 2022 class of first-crop yearling sires features a diverse batch of Kentucky-based young stallions, including a pair of Breeders' Cup champions, two sons of reigning top sire Into Mischief, five graded stakes winners at two and five Grade I winners on turf. Throughout the course of the yearling sales season, we will feature a series of freshman sires as their first crop points toward the sales ring.

David Ingordo has followed Catalina Cruiser (Union Rags–Sea Gull, by Mineshaft) throughout his career, but the Lane's End bloodstock agent said that this year, the multiple graded stakes-winning stallion has never looked better.

“Catalina Cruiser has always been a big, well-grown horse,” Ingordo said. “I've seen him from when he was a yearling at Lane's End through his time at Mayberry Farm and with John Sadler and to coming back here to our stallion barn. When he retired, he just filled out even more. He's one of the most magnificent individuals you're going to find that's big and strong and has the body to go with his race record and substance.”

With a debut stud fee of $20,000, Catalina Cruiser bred 148 mares in his first year at Lane's End. After the stallion's first foals arrived, Ingordo said it has never been a challenge to guess their sire. The group includes plenty of good-sized, flashy chestnuts.

“Catalina Cruiser is stamping his offspring to look like himself,” he said. “They're flashy, they're big and they're strong. They have this precocious look to them. I'm a balance fanatic and the Catalina Cruisers that I have observed have great balance. He has a tremendous hindquarter, hip and great width behind and all his offspring do as well.”

In his second and third year at stud, Catalina Cruiser stood for a fee of $15,000. One of the greatest compliments a young sire can receive, according to Ingordo, is to have a mare return to him after their first mating. Such has been the case with this stallion, he said.

Bred by W.S. Farish, Catalina Cruiser was a $370,000 Keeneland September yearling. His debut win at three for Hronis Racing was followed by three straight wins as a 4-year-old, including the GII San Diego H. and GII Pat O'Brien S. Returning at five, the Sadler pupil shipped to Belmont to take the GII True North S. at six and a half furlongs in stakes-record time before going back home to California to claim repeat titles in the San Diego H. and Pat O'Brien.

Ingordo said he is often asked why Catalina Cruiser did not debut until October of his sophomore year.

“When he left Mayberry Farm, we knew he had a ton of talent, but that his mind was way ahead of his body,” he recalled. “He was this big, gangly horse and he wanted to do it, but his body wasn't ready for it yet. We gave him all the time to be the best horse he could be. When he came together as a 3-year-old, he never really looked back.”

Despite the five-time graded stakes winner's late start, Ingordo said he does not believe the same will be said of Catalina Cruiser's offspring.

“I look for them to be precocious,” he explained. “I see these 'Cruiser' babies as a little bit better versions of their sire because I think they're maybe a little bit less growthy than he was. I can see them running at two and I can see him having a 2-year-old champion.”

Catalina Cruiser colt out of She's Trouble sells as Hip 39 at the Fasig-Tipton July Sale

“I don't think they'll be limited to sprinting,” he added. “I think they'll be able to go two turns and ultimately be a Classic horse, like Catalina Cruiser's sire Union Rags and his broodmare sire Mineshaft.”

Catalina Cruiser sent 47 first-crop weanlings and short yearlings through the auction ring. Headlined by a $200,000 colt at the Keeneland November Sale, 37 sold to average $66,027 and rank their sire among the top five first-year sires in North American by weanling average.

The son of Union Rags has six yearlings entered in the upcoming Fasig-Tipton July Sale on July 12, including Hip 39, a colt out the stakes-placed Into Mischief mare She's Trouble from Scott Mallory's consignment.

“This has always been a mature colt,” Mallory said of the yearling. “He's really nice for the first foal out of the mare and he's got a lot of attributes that I like from Union Rags and Catalina Cruiser. We're hoping for the best and believe that the Catalina Cruisers are really nice foals. They have a lot of leg to them, a lot of scope and of course a lot of flash. They all seem to have a really good mind.”

Ingordo did not hesitate to say that he would be looking to get his hands on a Catalina Cruiser yearling or two for his own clients this summer.

“I don't have any pride of ownership in this stuff,” he said. “If I don't like a horse, I don't like them. I look at every horse and ask, 'Would I buy it?' and I want to buy some Catalina Cruisers because they're the kind of horses that we buy to win races and win the big races.”

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Lane’s End 2022 Stallion Roster Topped By Quality Road At $150,000

Lane's End in Versailles, Ky., has released its advertised fees for the 2022 breeding season, led by leading sire Quality Road at $150,000, unchanged from the previous year.

Quality Road, a 15-year-old son of Elusive Quality, is led this year by Grade 1 winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile contender Corniche, Grade 2 winner Astronaut, multiple Grade 3 winner Dr Post, and Grade 1-placed Dunbar Road.

After a standout debut season for his yearlings at auction, Grade 1 winner City of Light will stand for $60,000 after previously standing for $40,000.

A 7-year-old son of Quality Road, City of Light has been represented by a pair of seven-figure yearlings in 2021, including a $1.7-million colt that topped this year's Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

Veteran sire Twirling Candy also saw his fee increase in 2022, going from $40,000 to $60,000.

The 14-year-old son of Candy Ride was led this year by Preakness Stakes winner Rombauer, joined by Grade 1 winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile contender Pinehurst, Grade 3 winner Gear Jockey, and Grade 1-placed Dream Shake.

Two stallions' fees will be determined by the results at the Breeders' Cup.

Connect, an 8-year-old son of Curlin, is among North America's leading freshman sires, led by Grade 1 winner and Breeders' Cup Juvenile contender Rattle N Roll, who won the G1 Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland in October. He is also the sire of Hidden Connection, who earned a “Win and You're In” berth to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies after taking the G3 Pocahontas Stakes.

The fee for Liam's Map could also fluctuate by the Breeders' Cup outcomes, starting with a base fee of $40,000. The 10-year-old Unbridled's Song horse has a Juvenile Fillies hopeful in Grade 1 winner Juju's Map.

The roster also includes newcomer Code of Honor, a Grade 1-winning son of Noble Mission whose fee will be announced after his final start in the G1 Clark Stakes.

Following is a complete list of advertised fees for the 2022 stallion roster at Lane's End.

Accelerate – $15,000
Candy Ride – $75,000
Catalina Cruiser – $15,000
City of Light – $60,000
Code of Honor (NEW) – TBD
Connect* – TBD
Daredevil – $25,000
Game Winner – $30,000
Gift Box – $10,000
Honor A. P. – $15,000
Honor Code – $20,000
Liam's Map* – $40,000
Mineshaft – $10,000
Quality Road – $150,000
The Factor – $17,500
Tonalist – $10,000
Twirling Candy – $60,000
Unified – $10,000
Union Rags – $30,000
West Coast – $15,000

*Stud fee pending Breeders' Cup results

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