Candy Ride (Arg) | Horse Racing Free Tips

Belmont Stakes Analysis: It’s ‘Show’ Time

Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) can make some noise at what has to be a terrific price in Saturday's GI Belmont S. He continues to improve with each of his six career starts for trainer Brad Cox, and was a bit unlucky in his last two tries. The handsome gray came up just a nose short with a wide trip after bouncing off rivals down the stretch in the GII Wood Memorial S., then was a respectable fifth after racing too close to a scorching pace in the GI Kentucky Derby.

By the sire of Gun Runner out of a two-time graded stakes-winning Tapit mare going 1 1/8 miles, Hit Show is certainly bred to handle Classic distances. He also gets plenty of stamina from his Canadian champion second dam Milwaukee Appeal (Milwaukee Brew), who hit the board in the GI Alabama S. as well as two legs of the Canadian Triple Crown facing males. Hit Show boasts the right running style for the Belmont and should sit a perfect trip just off the early leaders if he's good enough.

Tapit Trice (Tapit) looks like the one to beat for four-time Belmont winning trainer Todd Pletcher if he can overcome his slow-starting ways in what appears to be a race without a whole lot of pace signed on.

Arcangelo (Arrogate) has come on nicely in his last two, led by a game win in the local prep GIII Peter Pan S., and still has room to take another leap forward while making his two-turn debut.

Sherack Selections: 1-#7 Hit Show (10-1). 2-#2 Tapit Trice (3-1). 3-#3 Arcangelo (8-1).

The post Belmont Stakes Analysis: It’s ‘Show’ Time appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Top to Bottom: Derby Rundown

This week's Triple Crown feature examines the trips of GI Kentucky Derby runners in detail from first to last:

1) Mage (No. 12 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Mage, the little horse who could, was a characteristic beat slow out of the starting gate. Javier Castellano let him roll with the flow as the field sorted itself out through the first furlong, then darted to secure the rail while fourth-last the first time under the wire.

Unhurried through the turn, this son of Good Magic ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) raced several paths off the rail down the backstretch. Castellano seemed content knowing a brisk pace was percolating in front of him while aware the two late-running faves were also still parked at the back.

Edging closer, Mage tagged on behind the rapidly advancing Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits) entering the far turn. Sensing two rivals ranging up from the outside and not wanting to be locked in, Castellano committed his colt to an ever-widening arc to get clear of them. Mage was still 11th while four deep three-eighths out, but he was winding up for a move that would prove to be a better-timed version of the one he uncorked in the GI Florida Derby.

Building momentum, Castellano urged Mage with a more energetic cadence and steered for home in the eight path. He set down Mage as soon as they straightened away, advancing from fifth at the quarter pole to second three-sixteenths out. Zeroing in on a tiring-but not quitting-Two Phil's (Hard Spun), Mage accosted that pacemaker at the eighth pole, with Castellano cracking his colt once right-handed.

Mage didn't exactly blow by the pesky Two Phil's, who lingered a half-length back while Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) emerged as the lone remaining danger. Mage stalled for a stride at the sixteenth pole, but refocused quickly under Castellano's persistent (but never panicked) rousing, driving home with purpose to win by a length (105 Beyer Speed Figure).

2) Two Phil's (No. 11 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Two Phil's ($150,000 RNA KEESEP) broke decently from post three, but an eighth of a mile into the race, Jareth Loveberry wanted no part of being stuck inside, so he guided his colt several paths outward. A trio of speedsters had opened up by three lengths into the first turn, and Two Phil's was in the middle of a second flight of three that crept closer on the back straightaway.

The two waves soon merged, yet even as the pack tightened, Loveberry and Two Phil's appeared relaxed and comfortable. That spot two lanes off the fence proved to be prime positioning into the far turn, because when Verifying (Justify) was first among the duelers to crack, Loveberry shot through to claim the inside passage he vacated, and within three strides Two Phil's had put away Reincarnate (Good Magic) and Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo), who were both being driven while Two Phil's was opening up under hand urging.

At the head of the lane, all the spent horses were bogged down inside, and Two Phil's braced for the wide-and-driving Mage. Two Phil's was understandably fatigued from stalking the fast pace and getting first run at the leaders, and while he was no match for Mage, this colt never packed it in. He stayed on as best he could under Loveberry's urging and held second by a half-length, replicating the 2007 Derby finish of his sire, Hard Spun. He galloped out on even terms with Mage and co-earned a 105 Beyer.

3) Angel of Empire (No. 10 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Angel of Empire ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) was sent away from the gate, but not so much to ask him for early speed as to put his head in the game straight from the start. He settled willingly for Flavien Prat third from last the first time through the lane, and seven-eighths out dropped from the three path onto the rail and rode it until the far turn, gradually picking off midpack stragglers as he advanced.

Prat wisely opted off the inside when Verifying began plummeting through the field, and this colt very much looked in it to win it at the top of the stretch. He was eight wide and right behind Mage, but the difference was that Mage kicked into a higher gear while Angel of Empire continued to grind along. This son of Classic Empire was still three lengths in arrears at the eighth pole when Mage made his winning move.

Angel of Empire did find his best stride in that final furlong, but it was too late. Even with an untroubled trip and zesty fractions setting things up for him, this Pennsylvania-bred's usual closing kick wasn't quite good enough to reel in Two Phil's for second-and that's despite upping his best lifetime Beyer by 10 points, from 94 to 104. The top three galloped out more or less together.

4) Disarm (No. 8 in TDN pre-race rankings)
'TDN Rising Star' Disarm (Gun Runner) broke inward from post nine and love-tapped Reincarnate, with neither large-framed colt fazed by the contact. Joel Rosario took every opportunity in the early running to shift this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred deeper down toward the rail, and he found the fence within the back third of the pack by the time the field crested the clubhouse turn.

Disarm kept bettering his position while eating a fair amount of kickback, but he was never able to cut loose with a sustained run and often appeared “on hold” or on the verge of getting pocketed. He split horses on the far turn, but was walled up near the inside off the final bend, which in this year's Derby was not the place to be because of the cluster of tiring horses taking up residence there.

In upper stretch, Rosario tried to dive outward through a hole that Hit Show (Candy Ride{Arg}) got to first, so Plan B was to slice back inside, which only yielded more tight traffic for a precious half-furlong. Disarm shouldered aside the capitulating Kingsbarns, but when he finally go clear running room inside the final eighth, he had no finishing flourish.

Beaten 4 ½ lengths, Disarm was the final Derby horse in the race to be awarded a triple-digit Beyer, and that 100 represented a respectable 10-point jump off the 90s he paired in his previous two races.

5) Hit Show (No. 9 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Although he never fired despite attaining a no-excuse trip from the difficult one post, this Candy Ride (Arg) homebred for Gary and Mary West ran a commendable race, especially considering he's a May 9 foal.

Hit Show broke fluidly from the inside gate, affording Manny Franco the luxury of positioning him where he wanted in the early part of the race. Initially fifth, Hit Show got geared back to seventh through the turn, then was eased off the fence to the four path so Franco could claim a sweet, uncrowded stalking spot behind the speedsters with no one covering him up and plenty of room to maneuver.

Sixth into the far bend, Hit Show started to pick it up with a four-wide run 3 ½ furlongs out under urging from Franco. He looked poised to pounce from third turning for home, but had no response to three left-handed swats in upper stretch. In the manner of a few strides, Hit Show went from attack mode to being under siege. Mage blew by to his outside, and Hit Show stayed on doggedly, with Franco keeping him to task to get fifth money.

6) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (No. 14 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Derma Sotogake (Jpn) broke toward the back with his head briefly turned inward. There was no rush by Christophe Lemaire to contest the pace. This ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL son of Mind Your Biscuits seemed okay placed farther back in the pack than expected despite getting pelted with kickback.

Lemaire moved decisively 4 1/2 furlongs out, splitting horses at the entrance to the far turn and initially picking off Disarm toward his inside and targeting the on-the-prowl Hit Show in front of him. Derma Sotogake seemed to be drawing a bead on the top trio off the turn, but he was quickly overtaken by Mage and Angel of Empire, whose full heads of steam stood out in contrast against his one-paced action.

“He didn't break as fast as last time but I was able to put him on the inside and save ground,” Lemaire said. “Gradually, we gained position on the final turn. I was in the best spot to make a move, he stayed on and but didn't have the speed to make it closer late.”

The field leaving the starting gate for the 2023 GI Kentucky Derby | Coady

7) Tapit Trice (No. 5 in TDN pre-race rankings)
You can watch the Derby replay as many times as you want, but trainer Todd Pletcher aptly summed up the trip for this 'TDN Rising Star' in his immediate take right after the race: “Tapit Trice did what he always does-he broke slow and then he had to check a couple of times heading into the first turn. When it came time he couldn't get going well enough. Farther for him-we're thinking [GI] Belmont [S.].”

Luis Saez had to implore this $1.3 million KEESEP son of Tapit straight out of the starting stall, and he briefly lost momentum when Mage dropped in front of him a furlong into the race. Tapit Trice was last into the turn, but was already on the move six furlongs out, which is how he won the GI Blue Grass S.

He picked off three rivals at the back before another minor stutter-step stall a half mile out; Saez seemed conflicted going into the far turn about whether inside or outside would be best. But it really didn't matter because Tapit Trice had left himself too much work to do.

This colt did respond to far-turn rousing, but it takes Tapit Trice quite a while to fully unwind. He spun nine wide into the lane, and when it was evident he not within realistic striking distance, Saez decided to save Tapit Trice for another day.

8) Raise Cain (No. 19 in TDN pre-race rankings)
This son of Violence ($180,000 KEESEP; $65,000 RNA OBSOPN) ran a sneaky-good eighth. He broke running from post 13 and could have made the front vanguard, but Gerardo Corrales took a firm hold and guided him back, eventually latching on to a midpack spot at the fence through the first turn.

Raise Cain showed a nice ability to pick off selected targets down the backstretch, always bettering his position, and when the far turn arrived, he had achieved a tactically advantageous spot behind the too-fast frontrunners down near the inside.

Corrales pulled off a deft move when shifting outside of the tiring Verifying, then reclaiming his spot at the rail. But when the field straightened, the need to get off the plugged-up inside suddenly became desperate, and Raise Cain had to waste forward momentum by repeatedly shifting laterally through the lane. He only encountered more and more traffic, enduring some bumping that stalled his late run for good. Overall though, the effort rates much better than it looks on paper.

9) Rocket Can (No. 13 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Junior Alvarado said post-race that, “I think I had one of the best trips in the race,” and he's probably right-at least for the first mile of the journey.

Rocket Can, a $245,000 FTSAUG RNA gray, was initially a touch keen while briefly running up on heels in the first few strides, but he settled in seventh, inching closer to the action as the two front packs merged into one. He came out to the four path and enjoyed similar uncovered placement as Hit Show while edging to within four lengths of the leaders into the last turn.

After saving ground, this blinkers-on son of Into Mischief tried to punch through between rivals three-sixteenths out, but he had tiring horses on both sides and it wasn't initially apparent if Two Phil's ahead of him was stopping or staying on. By the time Alvarado called on Rocket Can for another burst, the colt had nothing left to give.

10) Confidence Game (No. 18 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Judging Confidence Game's try based on how close he was to a hot pace and how long he hung in there, his Derby 10th at 21-1 odds comes off as a likeable effort.

This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride (Arg) colt threw himself right into the race by breaking with good energy and securing a primo position, fourth at the rail into the turn behind a trio of eager pacemakers.

He was fifth, then fourth for most of the backstretch run, attending the brisk splits while waiting to see how the duel would come undone. Confidence Game attempted to follow the dive-between move of Two Phil's five-sixteenths out, but Two Phil's was into the bridle with more alacrity, relegating this colt to chase mode turning for home closest to the rail.

At the eighth pole, Confidence Game was still within three of the leaders when Mage powered past Two Phil's. But he had that “spinning his wheels” look to his stride, and couldn't sustain his bid. He wasn't hammered on by James Graham when it became evident he wouldn't attain a placing.

11) Sun Thunder (No. 15 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Even with blinkers added, this late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) was unhurried out of the gate, settling into stride second from last the first time past the finish.

Sun Thunder gained a few positions on the far turn and into the stretch, primarily from passing horses who had no forward momentum.

“I think we'll point to the Belmont after this,” trainer Ken McPeek said. “He was a little up against it today, but we'll come back to fight another day.”

12) Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) was a hard-charging pace presence out of gate 17 without really being hustled. He suffered only slight momentum loss when Rocket Can knifed in front of him through the stretch.

Midpack and between rivals onto the backstretch, Kazushi Kimura rode him with confidence, then shook the reins at him with a sense of urgency when fellow Japanese invader Derma Sotogake ranged alongside and quickened into the far turn.

Mandarin Hero was asked for run four deep through the bend, and he came in close quarters with the brawny Tapit Trice. But this colt kept getting passed even though he was responding to his rider.

13) Reincarnate (No. 6 in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $775,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic had Disarm bounce off his outside flank a few jumps out of the gate, but Reincarnate's natural speed carried him straight to the front, where he hooked up as the outermost horse in a three-way go.

John Velazquez tacked him back behind Verifying and Kingsbarns down the back straight, and even though this colt was incrementally edging up a half mile out, he couldn't make much of a dent in the margin because the fractions were so demanding.

Reincarnate's best chance came on the far turn when Verifying was the first to crack, but he couldn't muster an authoritative response to put away the ready-to-cave Kingsbarns. Two Phil's slipped through to his inside instead, and Velazquez concentrated on keeping his own regressing mount out of the way of onrushing contenders once he realized no final kick was coming from Reincarnate.

14) Kingsbarns (No. 7 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Kingsbarns, now a 3-for-4 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) won a couple of in-race battles after getting a good jump out of starting stall six.

After establishing a wicked pace, Kingsbarns dueled Verifying into defeat while still in hand entering the far turn under Jose Ortiz, and then kept next-closest pursuer Reincarnate at bay.

But by the midway point on the far bend Kingsbarns had no real response when Two Phil's swallowed him up and a sizable portion of the field careened by. Although out of the race by upper stretch, Kingsbarns managed to contribute to an inside logjam that adversely affected several contenders, although none of them truly had a winning shot.

“I sacrificed going a little bit faster than I wanted to in order to be in a good spot,” Ortiz said. “I wish we could have given him a breather on the backside.”

15) King Russell (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $60,000 FTKOCT gray by Creative Cause overcame a wide draw from post 18 but could only scrape together a mild mid-race spurt after going four wide on the clubhouse turn.

“He made a nice move from the five-eighths pole to the three-eighths pole, and then after that, he started to get tired and give up,” said jockey Rafael Bejarano.

16) Verifying (No. 4 in TDN pre-race rankings)
Post position two sealed Verifying's fate as a Derby frontrunner, even though he is probably more accomplished and comfortable as a pace-presser.

Tyler Gaffalione let him rumble through torrid opening quarters of :22.35 and :23.38 while forced forward by the speed-centric Kingsbarns and Reincarnate. When Verifying had no more left to give, his rider did a good job wrapping up and letting him coast back through the field along the inside without incident.

The Blue Grass S. and the Derby have now made for two difficult races in a row for this May 11 foal by Justify ($775,000 KEESEP), who still figures to be a fighter at the upper echelon of the division given his underlying talent and the stout seasoning he's gotten over the past six weeks.

17) Jace's Road (No. 17 in TDN pre-race rankings)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, a $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, was sent away from gate 10 and landed a key stalking spot sixth on the outside heading into the turn. But he couldn't hold his position, and lost touch by the half-mile marker.

“He broke sharp and I tried to hustle him but he could not keep up with the three horses in front,” said Florent Geroux. “He was not trying. Before I knew everyone started passing him.”

18) Cyclone Mischief (Unranked also-eligible in TDN pre-race rankings)
This $450,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief broke sluggishly and was widest and last a furlong into the Derby. He zoomed by nine horses before the pack hit the first turn, but got hung out five deep on that bend and soon regressed to the tail of the field.

The post Top to Bottom: Derby Rundown appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 20: Upheaval in the Ranks

A new kingpin graces the No. 1 slot after a wild, final weekend of 100-point preps. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths, with several horses included here who are currently below the cut.

1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move leapfrogs into the No. 1 spot because his well-executed GI Santa Anita Derby score (100 Beyer Speed Figure) asserts him as the no-nonsense “momentum” horse heading to Louisville. In winning the strongest of the three nine-furlong preps run Saturday, this son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) pressured the field into submission, and he has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise. His stay-in-touch stalking style and obvious comfort level at being covered up on the inside are highly desirable traits for a Derby contender.

Practical Move won the two fastest 1 1/16-miles Derby qualifying stakes in 2022-23 (1:41.65 in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 GII San Felipe S.). His winning time of 1:48.69 in the Santa Anita Derby is also quickest of all the nine-furlong preps.

Unhurried at the break, jockey Ramon Vazquez secured an inside run behind a blazing :22.30 opening quarter in the Santa Anita Derby. He chipped away at the margin down the backstretch, and for the third graded stakes in a row, Practical Move rode the rail to menace the pacemaker. Seizing the lead while still in hand before the quarter pole, the even-money Practical Move then fended off a determined Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) to win by a nose while keeping a wide-and-driving Skinner comfortably at bay a half-length back in third.

Practical Move has yet to display an overdriven “Wow!” gear late in the lane. But being able to crank up the torque without being flashy about it can certainly earn a blanket of roses on Derby day.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' . O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) goes into the Derby as the East Coast kingpin and reigning divisional champ. But while Practical Move ended his prep season with an exclamation point, Forte's final prep resonated more like a question mark, because at 1-5 odds he was expected to deliver a shellacking to s soft-on-paper GI Florida Derby field.

Yes, this son of Violence did win with his ears pricked after giving himself too much work to do. And his loping, 4 ½-furlong move did not come at the expense of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., having to drill this colt in order to power past the pesky Mage (Good Magic). Five-sixteenths out, Forte looked beaten. But once he got rolling, Forte uncoiled on cue, giving off a “Don't worry, I've got this!” vibe to win by a measured length.

The 20-horse Derby will be different. It was a tactical revelation to hear Ortiz say post-race that “We went to the first turn and those horses cleared me and I said, 'Oh my God.' I thought he could clear them and he didn't do it.”

Forte just might have the most devastating late-race kick in the Derby. But if he can't attain good early positioning, he won't have a stable launching pad to set up his proven far-turn run.

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Three horses were bobbing heads at the wire of the GII Wood Memorial. Although this homebred for Gary and Mary West ended up second, he ran the best race in terms of boosting his chances in the Derby.

This Candy Ride (Arg) colt went off as the 17-10 favorite, and although he didn't challenge for the lead from post 12, he was in the hunt five wide on the clubhouse bend before taking up a stalking spot while fifth, about five lengths off a moderate first two quarters in :24.88 and :24.12.

The cadence quickened through a :23.88 third quarter, and Hit Show was on the prowl three deep through the turn. He was bottled up off the bend, had to be switched off the heels in upper stretch, then both gave and took some light slam-dancing while sparring in the middle of a three-way go through the final furlong.

The hedge here is that this May 9 foal can build off that effort, especially when you consider Hit Show has already won at nine furlongs (in the GIII Withers. S.). In addition, his Beyers show a nice, ascending arc of 60-71-82-91-93 through five career tries.

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), a Justify colt who will not hit his third birthdate until five days after the Derby, picked a stellar time to run his breakthrough “coming out” race when second, beaten a nose, in the GI Blue Grass S.

A half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, Verifying broke forwardly but conceded the lead to an 86-1 sacrificial pacemaker. Tyler Gaffalione let that long shot roll onto the back straight while sitting second with his 2.3-1 mount, then tightened that open-length gap 5 ½ furlongs out.

Cognizant of 'TDN Rising Star' and 1.2-1 favorite Tapit Trice (Tapit) making a bold move to his outside, Verifying took control at the five-sixteenths pole. Gaffalione braced for the quarter-pole challenge of Tapit Trice by deftly floating that favorite out to the five path.

The two then threw down in a length-of-stretch slugfest that included some inconsequential bumping and brushing, with Verifying twice clawing back the lead before Tapit Trice snatched it away by a neck at the wire. The two co-earned 99 Beyers.

Verifying has won twice, but never at the stakes level. He had enough speed to break his maiden over six furlongs at the Spa last summer, and also took down a key-race allowance going a mile at Oaklawn in January, out of which the second- and third-place horses came back to win their next starts as favorites.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

Tapit Trice would not be denied in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. | Coady Photography

There's a good chance 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is evolving into a powerhouse with a knack for extricating himself from tight predicaments and finding a way to win at all costs.

But his slow-to-go nature marks this son of Tapit as a “heart attack” type of horse who scares the daylights out of his backers by constantly having to be pumped on for run by rider Luis Saez before he accomplishes his task by only as much as it takes to win narrowly.

That was the way Tapit Trice scored in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby (a crew that will not yield any other Kentucky Derby qualifiers), and it was a similar story in Saturday's tougher Blue Grass S.

After hustling this burly gray from the one post, Saez had to throttle back before the field passed the mile marker. The colt settled to seventh entering the backstretch, got guided outside, and was already on the march six furlongs from the wire.

Tapit Trice was jointly third by the half-mile pole, and as the lead changed in front of him, he went relentlessly after Verifying off the turn. They raced in lockstep while exchanging love taps and the lead, but Tapit Trice had more at the finish.

Despite the victory, the overall takeaway is that Tapit Trice's loop-the-group tactics simply don't align with the profiles of recent Derby winners. Eight of the last nine Derbies have been won by horses racing either right up front or just off the lead. Thus, despite winning his last two stakes in respectable, off-the-tailgate fashion, Tapit Trice takes a haircut in the rankings, dropping from third to fifth.

6) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) led at every call through moderate fractions to win the GII Louisiana Derby (95 Beyer) by 3 ½ lengths.

Although light on experience race-wise, Kingsbarns is developing a businesslike, no-drama demeanor. Ranked by foaling date (Jan. 17), he's also the oldest of the Top 20 competitors.

This colt doesn't necessarily need the lead. But this Todd Pletcher trainee is in his comfort zone either setting the pace or forcing the issue from just behind the leaders.

He's also already checked the “overcomes adversity” box. As the 3-1 favorite in his one-turn-mile Gulfstream debut, Kingsbarns was unbothered by being smothered at the rail in tight quarters on the turn. He later got blocked badly at the head of the lane before coming up with a decisive, punch-through run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Race number two didn't require as much effort, but it was useful. In a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, Kingsbarns let a 37-1 shot open up a long lead, then reeled him in with ease to finish 7 ¾ lengths ahead of the pack (85 Beyer).

7) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate hasn't been to the winner's circle since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S. score, and his Beyers are drifting in the wrong direction at age three (95-90-86). But I wouldn't discount him as a rebounding, front-end factor in the Derby.

This large-framed, long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer.

Reincarnate has twice flown to Oaklawn since Feb. 25 rom his Santa Anita training base, running third in both the GII Rebel S. (with a troubled trip) and the GI Arkansas Derby (ideal stalking setup but failed to fire).

At somewhere in the 25-1 range, I'd have a hard time excluding Reincarnate from Derby exotics, although his lack of a positive-momentum final prep precludes keying on him to win.

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm is the highest-ranked Top 20 contender who is outside looking in, points-wise. He's currently parked at No. 26 on the qualifying list with 40 points and needs help from defectors.

This Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred rates so highly because it's unlikely we've seen his best effort at age three. Whether his prime-time bust-out comes 3 ½ weeks from now in the Derby or 3 ½ months from now as a later developer is the question.

Remember, his sire, Gun Runner, ran third as the 2016 Derby, finished on the board in a series of graded stakes into the summer and fall, but didn't burst onto the scene until after the Breeders' Cup, when he won the GI Clark H. (and seven of his eight final races against top-class competition).

Disarm has been at a tactical disadvantage trying to pull back lone-speed pacemakers twice in 2023, first in an allowance at Oaklawn Feb. 19, and again, with inside trip trouble, in the Louisiana Derby.

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Angel of Empire dominated the GI Arkansas Derby | Coady Photography

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) sails into the Derby off back-to-back, come-from-behind wins at nine furlongs in the GII Risen Star S. (89 Beyer) and Arkansas Derby (94 Beyer). This two-time sales entrant ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) will seek to become the third Pennsylvania-bred to win the Derby, after Lil E. Tee (1992) and Smarty Jones (2004).

“I think he's capable of winning [the Derby],” trainer Brad Cox said on the Apr. 6 TDN Writers' Room podcast. “We have to get better and we may have to have Forte stub his toe in order to beat him. But 20-horse field, it's a demanding, challenging race, bottom line. If you make the field that's why you go, so many things can happen.”

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

If you discount his rough-trip fifth debuting at five furlongs way back on June 23 and his seventh behind Forte in the key-race GI Breeders' Futurity S.(when Two Phil's got bounced around at the break), this is a colt with four wins (two at Grade III) and a second and third in two other graded stakes.

His 101-Beyer score in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks was a sizable 15-point jump off his previous effort in the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. That's a stout number, but it's so far removed from his normal range that it leads to speculation about whether triple digits on the Beyer scale are sustainable for Two Phil's.

Versatility and a “do your job” attitude are the twin strengths of Two Phil's. He's won sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop and now Tapeta, and you have to admire how he's been in it to win it at least until the upper stretch every time he's raced.

11) MANDARIN HERO (JPN) (c, Shanghai Bobby–Namura Nadeshiko {Jpn}, by Fuji Kiseki {Jpn}) O-Hiroaki Arai; B-Hirano Bokujo (Jpn); T-Terunobu Fujita. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-4-2-0, $386,854. Last start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), victorious in four of five starts in Japan (only loss by a neck), popped with an impressive 8-1 runner-up try in the Santa Anita Derby. But the 40 qualifying points he garnered (24th) are still shy of a certain Derby berth.

His sharp United States debut would have been good enough to win the Santa Anita Derby in most years. Mandarin Hero broke fifth, tucked into the two path around the first turn, then had to wait for room into the far turn. Committed to inside passage by jockey Kazushi Kimura, he patiently waited some more, then dove through at the fence off the turn.

In upper stretch Mandarin Hero had his momentum briefly stalled as Kimura repositioned him off the favorite's heels. But Mandarin Hero still maintained his focus on Practical Move even while a fresh rival, Skinner (Curlin), was bearing down outside. This colt was getting to the winner; they were separated by a nose and co-earned 100 Beyers.

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

The eye-catching, far-turn move by Mage ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) was slightly premature in the Florida Derby. But it catapulted him to the lead, and he showed he knew what to do to defend his position once he hit the front, sharply repulsing a bid from the more experienced Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief).

All the while Forte was taking dead aim. Even though this son of Good Magic had little left to stave off the 1-5 fave, Mage's effort still rates as impressive considering his lack of seasoning (just three races) and the fact that that no horse has finished that close to the champ in three other races over the last six months.

If a Forte-vs.-Mage rivalry continues to percolate, you can trace it back to a grudge match their dams started. Mage is out of the Bill Mott-trained Puca, who won her only stakes race in a $75,000 turfer at Suffolk Downs in 2017. She scored by 1 ¾ lengths over the Michael Matz-trained Queen Caroline, who would go on to foal Forte.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate..

13) Skinner (Curlin)
Skinner ($40,000 KEESEP; $510,000 OBSAPR) stamped himself as an outside Louisville threat who figures to be flying under the radar, odds-wise. In the Santa Anita Derby, this noticeably maturing son of Curlin broke well but was asked to settle second from last by Victor Espinoza. Skinner started to pick off midpack targets with a purposeful move three-eighths out, then swung four wide for the drive. He briefly brushed with a tiring 54-1 shot, dug in, and stayed on decently. Skinner ended up beaten half a length by Practical Move and Mandarin Hero, earning a 99 Beyer that leaves room for improvement. Trainer John Shirreffs orchestrated Giacomo's 50-1 Kentucky Derby win in 2005 off a fourth-place try in the Santa Anita Derby. At No. 21 on the qualifying list, Skinner needs one defection to make the cut.

14) Lord Miles (Curlin)
Lord Miles outran his 59-1 odds in a shocker of a score in the Wood Memorial. Is he a one-race wonder, or just starting to blossom? He broke forwardly, pressed the pacemaker, then backed off to fourth on the back straight. It looked for a few strides like he was starting to lose touch into the far bend, but Paco Lopez got him going again, and by the head of the lane this Vesgo Racing Stable homebred was hunkered down and not at all deterred by the rambunctious jostling of a furious three-way stretch battle. He won the bob at the finish by a nose, and the win represented a 14-point Beyer jump from 79 to 93. Realistically, this year's Derby projects to require a triple-digit Beyer to win, meaning Lord Miles must deliver another lifetime best against the toughest competition and over the longest distance of his career.

15) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)
Derma Sotogake wired the G2 UAE Derby. But that doesn't necessarily mean this ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling will be committed to seeking the lead in the Derby. “We didn't exactly plan to go straight to the lead but he broke well,” said trainer Hidetaka Otonashi. Added jockey Christophe Lemaire, “He can break a little slowly [but he] travelled nicely on the lead and he relaxed for me down the backstretch. He was still moving smoothly for me as we came into the home stretch and once I pressed the button he was very impressive and I could enjoy the finish on him.” The first four horses across the finish barely changed positions for the bulk of that race, although Derma Sotogake cracked them all while still in hand before widening his margin under light encouragement.

16) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})
This $25,000 KEESEP colt whose dam, Eblouissante, is a half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta is listed as “possible” by Keeneland for the GIII Lexington S. on Saturday. Confidence Game does not need qualifying points to attain a Derby berth, so the 1 1/16-miles prep would serve as a true tune-up effort. Otherwise he'd be heading to Louisville off a 10-week gap since his 94-Beyer win in the Rebel S., a wide-and-driving score that was aided by a pace meltdown.

17) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)
This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) safely qualifies with 60 points and is already stabled at Churchill, but his Derby status hasn't been solidified. He was a punchless fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, after which trainer Bill Mott said Rocket Can “gives you the feeling there's a little more there, but he's just not quite giving it all to you yet.” This colt proved late at age two and early into his sophomore season that he can capably stalk to stay within striking distance of leaders, and he doesn't shy from stretch fights. After winning the GIII Holy Bull S. back on Feb. 4, Rocket Can was a best-of-the-rest second behind divisional champ Forte. But he still hasn't made the convincing leap in Beyers, regressing from a 91 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. to an 86 at Oaklawn.

18) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)
This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) has a second, two fourths, and a fifth in graded stakes this year, and his 54 qualifying points are enough for a Derby berth. But trainer Ken McPeek was undecided on his starting status as of Sunday, the day after Sun Thunder ran 6 ½ lengths off the winner in the Blue Grass S. Sun Thunder still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but his Dec. 31 Oaklawn score was a capable effort despite minor trip trouble. His company lines aren't soft either; he caught some peaking horses earlier in the winter and was up against the grain of a speed-rewarding track on Louisiana Derby day.

19) Jace's Road (Quality Road)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road barely makes the cut as one of three horses currently tied with 45 qualifying points. He enjoys a $25,850 advantage in non-restricted stakes earnings, which is the tiebreaker. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, he faded to third in the late stages of the Louisiana Derby after pressing (but never truly threatening) all-the-way winner Kingsbarns. He took moderate pressure without any quit when wiring the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, but has been winless in two starts since.

20) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) accepted an invitation to Churchill for earning 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series when he won the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. At age three, this ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling was fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. He then improved to third in the UAE Derby, but he was still beaten 10 lengths by winner Derma Sotogake after stalking that pacemaker until the home straight. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is best known stateside for his two winners in the 2021 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar: Marche Lorraine (Jpn) at 49-1 in the GI Distaff and Loves Only You (Jpn) at 4-1 in the GI Filly and Mare Turf.

The post TDN Derby Top 20: Upheaval in the Ranks appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Second Chances: Candy Ride Colt a ‘Second-Half Horse’ for Spendthrift

In this continuing series, TDN's Senior Racing Editor Steve Sherack catches up with the connections of promising maidens to keep on your radar.

A little racing experience may be, ahem, just what Ocasek (c, 3, Candy Ride {Arg}–Shananies Song, by Eltish) needed.

Carrying the name of Ric Ocasek, the late frontman for The Cars, the Spendthrift Farm colorbearer wasn't off to the sharpest of beginnings from his rail draw and was forced to steady in the early stages traveling 6 1/2 furlongs on debut for Chad Brown in the opener at the Big A last Sunday.

Pushed along by Dylan Davis while trailing the field of five through an opening quarter in :22.39, Ocasek hit the gas entering the far turn and was rolling while four wide approaching the quarter pole as well-meant firster Harrodsburg (Constitution) kicked for home in complete control.

Still racing on his left lead down the stretch, Ocasek finally switched over a furlong from home and finished up nicely in a field-best :31.82 to cut Harrodsburg's margin of victory to 2 1/4 lengths.

Ocasek, a $440,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling, earned a rock solid 83 Beyer Speed Figure for the effort.

“I think in the first start, mostly I just want to see them finishing strong,” Spendthrift Farm General Manager Ned Toffey said.

“We never really thought he was gonna be a real early horse. It was very encouraging the way he ran on. Chad was very positive about what he saw and the numbers he ran.”

Toffey added, “With a little luck, he feels like he might be a nice second-half horse for us.”

Bred in Kentucky by Charles T. Matses, Ocasek's leading sire Candy Ride is responsible for 17 Grade I winners, including the brilliant Gun Runner.

Out of the stakes-winning and very productive Eltish mare Shananies Song, a homebred for Matses, Ocasek is a half-brother to Favorable Outcome (Flatter), GSW & MGISP, $522,818; Mouheeb (Flatter), GSW-UAE, $192,966; Bellamentary (Bellamy Road), SW & MGSP, $216,200; and last year's GIII Fantasy S. runner-up Beguine (Gun Runner).

What's next for the Triple Crown-nominated Ocasek?

“That's really more up to Chad,” Toffey replied. “We certainly feel like this horse is gonna be best going farther. He came out of the race well. Certainly, the plan will be to stretch him out, whether that happens in his next start or after that. We'll see how things go with him, but we're very encouraged so far.”

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