Super Trainers in California: The Story in Numbers

Over the years, the rise of the so-called super trainer has prompted many a clutched pearl by virtue of a perceived monopoly on the sport.

Anecdotally, it can certainly appear as though the same few names wield an outsized impact. But what does the data say?

The TDN has crunched the numbers in California from 2007 onward. This is far from a comprehensive overview of the situation, and what emerges is a picture that can be viewed from multiple angles.

On the one hand, the numbers suggest that the biggest stables in the state have indeed consolidated their positions at the top during a long period of market contraction. Yet at the same time, other indicators afford tentative encouragement for the smaller players.

One statistic that should make industry leaders sit up and take notice, however, is how in just 14 years, the number of trainers making at least one start in California has nearly halved. As a market shrinks, the impact from any dominant force is going to be more keenly felt.

Super trainers

One common narrative in California is that the 80/20 rule–the notion that 80% of prize money funnels into the pockets of 20% of the trainers–has long been a defining feature of the industry.

How accurate is this?

The 80/20 rule has fluctuated a little over the last 14 years, with the top 20% of trainers in the state typically winning more then 80% of available purses. Indeed, back in 2007, they won more than 85% of all available prize money.

Between 2007 and 2018, the closest California came to the 80/20 benchmark was 2015, when the top 20% trainers won 80.7% of all prize money. But the last two years have seen a very slight shift in that trend.

In 2019, the top 20% of trainers won 80.8% of prize money. Last year, it fell to 79.2%–the first time it dipped below 80% in at least 14 years.

There doesn't appear any one clear explanation. These past two years in California have been far from typical, with 2019's welfare issues followed by a global pandemic. It's unclear, however, exactly why those events should begin to iron out prize money distribution disparities.

Another factor to take into consideration is purse distribution between stakes and overnight races. Then there's the shrinking opportunities out West–has that led to the bigger barns stabling more horses elsewhere?

Arguably more consequential was the expulsion in June of 2019 of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer from The Stronach Group's California facilities (Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields).

Prior to that, Hollendorfer had been the dominant numerical force in California racing for many years. In 2018, for example, his runners made up 3.6% of all starts in the state. As recently as 2015, they had made up 4.1% of all starts in the state.

Nevertheless, without a clear understanding of where Hollendorfer's horses went, it's difficult to accurately diagnose. And as we shall see farther down, when the data is restricted to stables with 100+ horses making a start per year, their dominance appears as strong as ever.

Trainer data

Between 2007 and 2020, California has witnessed a 46.4% decrease in the number of individual trainers making at least one start: from 573 in 2007 to 307 in 2020.

At the same time, the number of trainers making up the 20% highest earners has decreased by nearly 47%–from 115 in 2007 to 61 last year–putting it in line with the overall drop in trainers.

The top 20% of trainers have consistently had an outsized impact when it comes to the apportioning of horses.

For the past 14 years, these top 20% trainers have started between 58.6% and nearly 65% of horses that have made at least one start in the state.

There are other indicators illustrating how, while the industry has shrunk, the big players have consolidated their position at the top.

One hundred-plus horses

Back in 2007, the number of trainers with 100 or more horses making at least one start per year was 14–the highest over the last 14 years.

Since then, however, the number of trainers with 100 or more horses making at least one start has fluctuated between eight and 12.

This means that while the number of active trainers in California has almost halved, the number of trainers with 100+ horses making starts has stayed fairly constant.

Not surprisingly, these large stables have long wielded tremendous sway in terms of prize money won and number of starts made.

In 2007, the 14 stables with 100 or more horses making at least one start annexed roughly 27% of all prize money and 21.6% of all starts. These 14 stables represent 2.4% of all trainers with at least one start in the state.

In 2020, the eight stables with 100 or more horses making at least one start (Isidro, Glatt, Sadler, Wong, O'Neill, Baltas, Miller and Baffert) represented 2.6% of all trainers with at least one start in the state. All in all, they annexed nearly 31% of all prize money and roughly 18% of all starts.

Lower end

There are, however, some angles to the data which appear to show glimmers of encouragement for the smaller stables barely scratching out a living.

As the number of active trainers in California has shrunk, the average earnings per trainer have trended upward.

Comparing 2007 to 2020, the average earnings per trainer for the bottom 80% had increased nearly 53% (from roughly $52,000 in 2007 to roughly $80,000 last year).

In comparison, the average earnings per trainer for the top 20% had increased only 0.6% during that same period (from roughly $1.212 million in 2007 to roughly $1.220 million last year).

Comparing 2007 figures to last year's, the bottom 80% of trainers have also significantly outpaced their top 20% cousins in terms of growth in both earnings per horse and earnings per starter.

Nevertheless, when the data is adjusted for the relative purchasing power of the dollar, the picture looks less rosy. When overall earnings per trainer are adjusted for inflation, for example, we see a more than 13% decrease from 2007 to last year.

To reinforce just how important the smaller stables are to the racing ecosystem, over 70% of trainers start fewer than 20 individual horses a year, but last year their horses accounted for about one-quarter of the entire horse inventory (1,392 of 5,389) and about one-quarter of all starts (4,321 of 17,973).

If the health of a racing product is defined in good part by fielding races with a varied breadth of competitor, therefore, this certainly leaves much food for thought, especially when the broken business model widely used throughout the industry disproportionately impacts the smaller trainer struggling to stay afloat.

And if the smaller stables find themselves unable to survive in an increasingly lopsided marketplace, what kind of product can the bettor expect?

Note: The data is derived from Daily Racing Form chart text files.

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CHRB Approves Stricter Penalties For Whip Use, Hopes To Have New Rule In Place For Breeders’ Cup

Hoping to have a new rule in place for the 2021 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar in November, the California Horse Racing Board approved on Wednesday new, stricter penalties to impose on jockeys for excessive whip use, reports the Daily Racing Form.

Since Oct. 1, California jockeys have been limited to six underhanded strikes of the whip, and are allowed two strikes before pausing to allow for a response. Stewards have fined jockeys a total of $28,300 since the new rules were implemented, primarily for using the whip more than six times.

In a unanimous vote, the CHRB approved a rule establishing a minimum fine of $500 and possible three-day suspension for excessive whip use. The current rule calls for a maximum fine of $1,000, along with the possible three-day suspension.

The CHRB's new penalty rule will have a 45-day public comment period before coming back for final approval.

“I think this protects the domestic rider,” said CHRB Chairman Gregory Ferraro. “Our concern had been that riders, particularly from foreign countries, could violate the rule and a $500 fine and three-day suspension would be meaningless to them. This allows for considerably more punishment for egregious violations and makes it more fair to our domestic riding colony.”

“This addresses the concern that I had right along, that has been any excessive whipping and putting in-state riders at a disadvantage,” echoed commissioner Oscar Gonzalez. “I believe this measure addresses any concerns I had. I'm hoping this is something we can adopt and have in place by Breeders' Cup.”

Read more at the Daily Racing Form.

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Sadler Charts Derby Course with Rock Your World

The spoils of victory typically come with a nice polish. Gleaming trophies. Glossy plagues. But not always.

“He offered me an egg roll at Clocker's Corner on Sunday morning,” said trainer John Sadler, on Ron McAnally's act of largesse the day after Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}), the horse the veteran conditioner bred, careened away with the GI Santa Anita Derby.

“It was pretty good, but I don't think it was breakfast food,” Sadler added, tongue firmly in cheek, before explaining that McAnally-who also trained both Rock Your World's sire and dam, Charm the Maker-offered more than just epicurean rewards. “He congratulated me, of course, said what a good job I've done.”

Sadler has known McAnally since his foundling days at the track, when, as veterinary assistant to Jack Robbins, Sadler's second stop during morning rounds was the Hall of Famer. “I've known him my whole career.”

And with Rock Your World maintaining his unbeaten record with such panache in the Santa Anita Derby, Sadler is in an enviable position to check a box that's missing on both men's resumes-a victory in the year's premier classic.

And how has Rock Your World-owned by Hronis Racing (brothers Kosta and Pete) and Michael Talla's Talla Racing-come out of his Derby prep? “He came out of it very well,” Sadler replied. “He looks great.”

Casual observers might have been taken aback by Rock Your World's performance earlier this month. The public's first glimpse of this rangy colt came the very first day of 2021, when he showed speed aplenty in dispatching a field of maidens going six furlongs on the turf with minimum fuss.

His next start-the Pasadena S. over a mile on the turf at Santa Anita towards the end of February-proved something of an expedited university course.

“He did everything wrong in the Pasadena, and he still won,” said Sadler, describing the race as a valuable teaching experience. “It started in the paddock. I could barely get the saddle on him. He just had that second race jitters.”

In the race itself, Rock Your World dwelt coming out of the gates, and at the top of the stretch took a moment or two to get organized before leveling off to win going away.

“After the Pasadena, we went to work a little bit harder on things that weren't working for him. We took him to the gate three times before the Santa Anita Derby, we did extra schooling in the paddock.”

These homework assignments weren't squandered. In the Santa Anita Derby, he was slick out the gates, promptly sent to the lead where he stayed, stretching clear towards the wire.

Much has been written about Rock Your World's germinal starts on the turf, with Sadler saying, for example, that the Pasadena was chosen in part to avoid Bob Baffert's latest phenom, Life is Good, in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita.

“I also wanted to start on the grass because I thought it would be easier,” Sadler said. “He's a big horse-wanted to give him time to develop, grow up, mature into himself. He's done that.”

It helps, of course, that Rock Your World is bred to handle any surface, as Sid Fernando recently pointed out. And in Candy Ride, Sadler has a sire as familiar as a glance in the mirror. He trained the stallion's second ever top-flight winner-Evita Argentina, who claimed the 2009 La Brea S.-and has done arguably more than any trainer to embellish the sire's record at stud.

With just three starts, all within his 3-year-old season, Rock Your World has the sort of comet-like profile that until recently would have faced skeptical glances. Mind, it took 126 years for Justify to mimic Apollo's feat of winning the Derby without a 2-year-old start, and Sadler will be the first to admit Rock Your World's education is far from complete.

“He doesn't have a ton of seasoning. No question about that-it's a concern,” he admitted. “But I'm happy where I'm at, and it's one of those things you can't do much about.”

And how will he handle the rough-and-tumble of the Derby, kick-back an' all? “That's a hard question-you won't really know until it happens. We'll see where we draw. Who knows.”

But if inexperience is a mountain to climb, good temperament is the tool most useful to the task.

“He's lovely in the barn-on the track he's all business,” said Sadler, ticking off like a report card a string of desirable traits in a student: “Does whatever you want. Willing worker. Pretty nice horse to train. Good energy.”

“I'm doing it just the way I want to this year”

The support the Hronis Brothers have given Sadler the last decade or so has, like a gusty sea-breeze filling the sails, propelled the Sadler barn into rarely chartered waters, during which time, the California mainstay has secured a number of notable milestones:

First Breeders' Cup victory (Accelerate in the 2018 Classic), first GI Pacific Classic (Accelerate in 2018), first GI Santa Anita “Big Cap” H. (Accelerate in 2008, with Gift Box and Combatant repeating the dose in subsequent years).

Such contemporary accolades obscure what has been a career forged upon the anvil of consistency. Sadler enjoyed his first graded stakes victory in 1982, when Don Roberto won the GIII Rolling Green H. at Golden Gate Fields. Since then, he's sent out a further 172 graded stakes winners.

Given the trainer's longevity and stature, it's perhaps startling to think he's had only four prior starters in the nation's most famous race. But then again, consistency in horse racing can't be found among those who see in their horses children of exceptional talents.

“We've never been ones to force it,” Sadler said. “I've never really had a 3-year-old that I've said, 'okay, he's not that great, I'm going to try to get us some cheap points.'”

Thus far of Sadler's Derby four, the first shot flew the farthest. “We actually ran really well,” said Sadler, of his 1993 Derby runner-the Allen Paulson-owned Corby who finished 6th to Sea Hero in the Paul Mellon silks.

“Even though he didn't win, he ran a really good race,” said Sadler of Corby. “He loomed up at the quarter pole, looked a pretty good threat, and just got beat by better horses. It was a lot of fun.”

The next three attempts were less salutary, however. In 2010, the heavens opened before Line of David and Sidney's Candy's Derby bids, leaving them stuck in the mud. Four years later, Candy Boy “got wiped out at the first eighth of a mile,” said Sadler.

What have these prior experiences taught Sadler of the Churchill Downs gauntlet? “A lot can happen is what I've learned,” he said.

“I know one thing about the Derby-run in it a few times, watched it every year-you can't force it. If it's going to happen, it's going to happen. I'm not going to waste energy making myself crazy on what post we get-we'll deal with all the circumstances as they come up,” he said.

“I'm relaxed right now, but I'm not saying I'll be [relaxed] the week of the race.” What helps, he said, is that this year, “I'm doing it just the way I want, which is with a leading contender.”

Between now and that first Saturday in May, Rock Your World's preparations will have a distinctly California-flavor. “It's a program that works,” he said, alluding to other Derby winners-Giacomo, California Chrome, the Baffert stars-that arrived in Kentucky sporting bronzed winter tans.

Rock Your World is scheduled to work this weekend and again a week prior the race, before flying out the Sunday before.

“I'm very strong about staying in California because we know one thing we have here that they don't have there: We're not going to get rain in April,” he said.

“But maybe the racing gods will knock me down for saying that,” Sadler added, giving his wooden desk-positioned with an unimpeded view of the shed-row-a rap of his knuckles.

A little superstition can't hurt, therefore, even after a career that has brought more than the usual haul of trophies-egg rolls included.

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Political Climate in California

At the start of last month, a small cadre of animal rights protestors snuck onto the Golden Gate Fields racetrack, lay down with arms interlocked in pipes, and halted live racing–as well as a vaccination drive on facility grounds–until police intervention saw their removal.

While the incident had a flash-in-the-pan quality, it had the corollary effect of reminding those within the sport here in the Golden State of the somewhat precarious position in which it still finds itself–an important part of the economic puzzle, employing tens of thousands, but one that doesn't always fit squarely with the state's broader progressive bona fides on animal welfare.

And so, placed in the context of the last two years, during which time the sport has been buffeted by sweeping reforms and hitherto unbeknownst scrutiny, it begs the question: Where does the state's industry now find itself in terms of political favor and cultural currency?

The answer appears both promising and cautionary, with the California state senate's vote against the reappointment of Wendy Mitchell to the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) Monday providing yet another indicator of a delicate balancing act.

“Two years ago, at this date, we were sitting at meetings with The Stronach Group [TSG], reviewing various plans whether to close Santa Anita for the rest of the meet,” said Greg Avioli, president and CEO of the Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC), pointing to the welfare crisis that had engulfed Santa Anita.

Since then, the sports political roller coaster has been helter-skelter, taking in a joint hearing in Sacramento, a letter of condemnation from senator Dianne Feinstein, major pieces of legislation, a regulatory board dramatically reshaped by Governor Gavin Newsom–who told The New York Times in 2019, “I'll tell you, talk about a sport whose time is up unless they reform. That's horse racing”–as well as a proposed ballot initiative to end racing in the state (one that was ultimately extinguished before voters had a chance to weigh in).

Two years later, sweeping equine welfare and safety reforms have proven markedly effective. “We've come a long way,” Avioli said.

Del Mar | Horsephotos

As to the temperature in Sacramento toward horse racing, “We have conversations with legislators and representatives weekly. In this last week, the conversations have focused on the recent safety results, particularly at Del Mar,” Avioli added, referring to recent news out of the Southern California track that it is among the safest in the nation for the third year straight year.

As a result, “I do not expect that you're going to see additional bills on the same subject,” said Avioli about prospective legislation in Sacramento. “The core issues of horse safety and welfare right now seem to be adequately addressed by the legislature.”

That sentiment appears mirrored by Senator Bill Dodd, whose legislative fingerprint can be seen on a number of horse racing-related bills over the past two years.

A spokesperson for the state senator, who represents the northern San Francisco Bay Area and Delta region, wrote in an email: “As chairman of the committee overseeing horse racing, Sen. Dodd follows developments in the sport closely and continues to monitor his previous measures to improve rider and equine safety. He has not introduced any new legislation in this area so far this year.”

Josh Rubinstein, Del Mar Thoroughbred Club president, strikes a similar tone to Avioli.

Industry progress made at the local, state and national level–including recent passage of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA)–means there is now a “different tone in our conversations with governmental leadership” compared to two years ago, Rubinstein wrote, in an emailed response to questions.

“We have real tangible progress we can point to, which makes a difference,” he added.

 

Protesters on the track at Golden Gate | Direct Action Everywhere

“I think there's some positives in all of this”

And so, what to make of events up at Golden Gate, by an organization called Direct Action Everywhere, which purportedly seeks to shut the facility down?

Anti-racing protests in California aren't new or novel–picketers have routinely descended upon both Del Mar and Santa Anita in recent years, often prompting workers at both facilities to stage counter-protests.

Indeed, Scott Chaney, CHRB executive director, downplays the significance of what occurred last month.

“I don't think a few protestors at Golden Gate are representative of the larger population in California,” Chaney said, highlighting both overarching public sentiment toward the sport, and the fractured nature of animal welfare organizations in the state with disparate sets of goals and agendas. “I think lumping animal rights activists in one group is unfair.”

At the same time, Chaney acknowledged the long thread of political activism woven throughout the history of the City of Berkeley–whose district Golden Gate Fields partially overlaps–as something the industry needs to be cognizant of.

Political pressure was brought to bear on the CHRB last October, when Berkeley City officials wrote the board requesting an investigation into equine fatalities at Golden Gate.

(The track routinely boasts a better equine fatality rate than the national average, which was 1.53 per 1,000 starts in 2019, according to The Jockey Club. In 2020, it was 1.23, 0.64 in 2019, and 1.12 in 2018.)

The CHRB responded with a letter explaining these rates, while listing a series of increased medication and safety measures the board had recently undertaken statewide and intended modifications for the future, including those specifically geared toward Golden Gate.

How was the letter received? “I'm not certain,” said Chaney.

“But to be fair, this is all against the backdrop of a global pandemic,” he added, saying that the track had built a good rapport with the City's Public Health Division as a result of a large facility outbreak last year, illustrated by the vaccination drive conducted on Golden Gate property. “I think there's some positives in all of this.”

In a written response to questions, Craig Fravel, CEO of 1/ST RACING, wrote, “At 1/ST, we believe in the right to free speech and peaceful protest, but the types of actions exhibited by the activists that disrupted live racing at Golden Gate Fields last month run directly counter to a safe and healthy environment and endangered the lives of thousands of people as well as the horses they were claiming to protect.

“Animal rights and extreme activists are very different,” Fravel added. “Those in our industry who stand for ethical horse racing believe in the protection of these beautiful creatures and are working together to ensure that racehorses are cared for before, during and after their racing careers.”

 

A surface safety evaluation at Santa Anita | Horsephotos

“It's a very substantial undertaking”

Which brings us to the path forward, and political land mines still to be negotiated. Come the next election cycle, could racing face another potential challenge at the state ballot?

“You always have to be cognizant in California–just look at Governor Newsom and the recall effort–of the ballot initiative as a challenge for horse racing,” Avioli said.

However, “You generally need upwards of $100 million to support a ballot initiative successfully. It's a very substantial undertaking,” he said, adding, “There is no indication of serious talk of a ballot initiative right now to address horse racing.”

One important distinction, said Avioli, is that a history of state initiatives related to animal welfare show support “to some level” by the Humane Society.

“We have good relations with them,” he said, of the global non-profit. “It all goes back to the fact that we did two years of the most aggressive reforms that have ever been done in this country in horse racing and it appears to be working.”

But that brings us to perhaps the biggest sticking point moving forward, one that highlights the various levers and conflicts tugging at the sport both within and without: the issue of continuing reform.

Horsephotos

According to Avioli, after two years of snowballing regulatory change, the industry is at a point of consolidation, allowing the dust to first settle on a radically altered landscape before further modification.

“The CHRB seems right now to be not in an activist role,” he said. “They understand the massive amount of new regulations that have been put in place over the last 24 months, and they do not expect it to continue at the same rate.

“Now's the time to focus more on implementing those–see the results of the new rules–before we go on and add additional ones,” Avioli said.

Yet, Kathy Guillermo, vice president of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA)–an organization, alongside the Humane Society, afforded key industry input–is critical of the rate of change since the CHRB has undergone its recent personnel reshuffle.

“For all the criticisms of the previous board, at the end, we were working very closely with them to try to make those changes,” Guillermo said, pointing to efforts that included tightened rules pertaining to multiple violators, as well as the implementation of central pharmacies on racetrack grounds, mirroring jurisdictions like Hong Kong.

And while the reforms instituted have seen the industry turn a corner, “a lot more still needs to be done,” Guillermo said.

“There has always been a division in racing about what needs to be done to correct the public perception. I see about half the people really get it,” Guillermo added. “And I see other entrenched parts of racing that still refuse to believe that they're going to have to be accountable to anybody but themselves. And they need to get on the same page.”

Here, it should be noted that the new board has been split on a number of controversial topics in recent months, including the issue of whether to grant Los Alamitos–the latest California facility under scrutiny for its welfare record–a truncated six-month license. After an extended period, the board granted the facility its typical 12-month license.

More recently, the panel was divided over the issue of whether to implement even tighter whip reforms than currently exist, with the board eventually voting 4-3 to table the motion for the time being.

Guillermo released the following statement regarding commissioner Mitchell's failed re-election to the CHRB:

“I've never had a conversation with Wendy Mitchell, nor has PETA ever contacted her directly, but it has become clear to us in the last several months that the California Horse Racing Board has failed to bring about the promised changes to protect horses.”

Guillermo added: “The board and, apparently, the California legislature remain beholden to the old guard in racing that considers abuse and death to be normal business practices, rather than listening to the public that has demanded change. PETA won't sit by quietly while the body count mounts. Legislators can expect to hear from our 700,000 supporters in the state.”

Del Mar | Horsephotos

It's unsurprising, then, many are circumspect about this ongoing balancing act.

“While we may not always agree, as stakeholders we share a collective vision to ensure a healthy and sustainable future for horse racing in North America,” wrote Fravel.

“There is a vast ecosystem that makes up the Thoroughbred racing industry and in order to move forward, the entire industry needs to continue to prioritize equine health and safety and to demonstrate that priority at every turn,” he added.

“It's complicated,” admitted Rubinstein, distinguishing between inclinations from the fringe elements of the animal rights movement and the more orthodox viewpoints of the mainstream.

“So, our messaging is aimed at the more reasonable people who want to see the sport continue and thrive, who appreciate that it is an economic engine for so many people, that it protects family farms and working open space.”

The majority of people support horse racing, he added. “As an industry, we have to take the initiative in Washington and at a state level to affirm recent progress and our overall commitment to safety and welfare.”

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