Super Trainers in California: The Story in Numbers

Over the years, the rise of the so-called super trainer has prompted many a clutched pearl by virtue of a perceived monopoly on the sport.

Anecdotally, it can certainly appear as though the same few names wield an outsized impact. But what does the data say?

The TDN has crunched the numbers in California from 2007 onward. This is far from a comprehensive overview of the situation, and what emerges is a picture that can be viewed from multiple angles.

On the one hand, the numbers suggest that the biggest stables in the state have indeed consolidated their positions at the top during a long period of market contraction. Yet at the same time, other indicators afford tentative encouragement for the smaller players.

One statistic that should make industry leaders sit up and take notice, however, is how in just 14 years, the number of trainers making at least one start in California has nearly halved. As a market shrinks, the impact from any dominant force is going to be more keenly felt.

Super trainers

One common narrative in California is that the 80/20 rule–the notion that 80% of prize money funnels into the pockets of 20% of the trainers–has long been a defining feature of the industry.

How accurate is this?

The 80/20 rule has fluctuated a little over the last 14 years, with the top 20% of trainers in the state typically winning more then 80% of available purses. Indeed, back in 2007, they won more than 85% of all available prize money.

Between 2007 and 2018, the closest California came to the 80/20 benchmark was 2015, when the top 20% trainers won 80.7% of all prize money. But the last two years have seen a very slight shift in that trend.

In 2019, the top 20% of trainers won 80.8% of prize money. Last year, it fell to 79.2%–the first time it dipped below 80% in at least 14 years.

There doesn't appear any one clear explanation. These past two years in California have been far from typical, with 2019's welfare issues followed by a global pandemic. It's unclear, however, exactly why those events should begin to iron out prize money distribution disparities.

Another factor to take into consideration is purse distribution between stakes and overnight races. Then there's the shrinking opportunities out West–has that led to the bigger barns stabling more horses elsewhere?

Arguably more consequential was the expulsion in June of 2019 of trainer Jerry Hollendorfer from The Stronach Group's California facilities (Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields).

Prior to that, Hollendorfer had been the dominant numerical force in California racing for many years. In 2018, for example, his runners made up 3.6% of all starts in the state. As recently as 2015, they had made up 4.1% of all starts in the state.

Nevertheless, without a clear understanding of where Hollendorfer's horses went, it's difficult to accurately diagnose. And as we shall see farther down, when the data is restricted to stables with 100+ horses making a start per year, their dominance appears as strong as ever.

Trainer data

Between 2007 and 2020, California has witnessed a 46.4% decrease in the number of individual trainers making at least one start: from 573 in 2007 to 307 in 2020.

At the same time, the number of trainers making up the 20% highest earners has decreased by nearly 47%–from 115 in 2007 to 61 last year–putting it in line with the overall drop in trainers.

The top 20% of trainers have consistently had an outsized impact when it comes to the apportioning of horses.

For the past 14 years, these top 20% trainers have started between 58.6% and nearly 65% of horses that have made at least one start in the state.

There are other indicators illustrating how, while the industry has shrunk, the big players have consolidated their position at the top.

One hundred-plus horses

Back in 2007, the number of trainers with 100 or more horses making at least one start per year was 14–the highest over the last 14 years.

Since then, however, the number of trainers with 100 or more horses making at least one start has fluctuated between eight and 12.

This means that while the number of active trainers in California has almost halved, the number of trainers with 100+ horses making starts has stayed fairly constant.

Not surprisingly, these large stables have long wielded tremendous sway in terms of prize money won and number of starts made.

In 2007, the 14 stables with 100 or more horses making at least one start annexed roughly 27% of all prize money and 21.6% of all starts. These 14 stables represent 2.4% of all trainers with at least one start in the state.

In 2020, the eight stables with 100 or more horses making at least one start (Isidro, Glatt, Sadler, Wong, O'Neill, Baltas, Miller and Baffert) represented 2.6% of all trainers with at least one start in the state. All in all, they annexed nearly 31% of all prize money and roughly 18% of all starts.

Lower end

There are, however, some angles to the data which appear to show glimmers of encouragement for the smaller stables barely scratching out a living.

As the number of active trainers in California has shrunk, the average earnings per trainer have trended upward.

Comparing 2007 to 2020, the average earnings per trainer for the bottom 80% had increased nearly 53% (from roughly $52,000 in 2007 to roughly $80,000 last year).

In comparison, the average earnings per trainer for the top 20% had increased only 0.6% during that same period (from roughly $1.212 million in 2007 to roughly $1.220 million last year).

Comparing 2007 figures to last year's, the bottom 80% of trainers have also significantly outpaced their top 20% cousins in terms of growth in both earnings per horse and earnings per starter.

Nevertheless, when the data is adjusted for the relative purchasing power of the dollar, the picture looks less rosy. When overall earnings per trainer are adjusted for inflation, for example, we see a more than 13% decrease from 2007 to last year.

To reinforce just how important the smaller stables are to the racing ecosystem, over 70% of trainers start fewer than 20 individual horses a year, but last year their horses accounted for about one-quarter of the entire horse inventory (1,392 of 5,389) and about one-quarter of all starts (4,321 of 17,973).

If the health of a racing product is defined in good part by fielding races with a varied breadth of competitor, therefore, this certainly leaves much food for thought, especially when the broken business model widely used throughout the industry disproportionately impacts the smaller trainer struggling to stay afloat.

And if the smaller stables find themselves unable to survive in an increasingly lopsided marketplace, what kind of product can the bettor expect?

Note: The data is derived from Daily Racing Form chart text files.

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Political Climate in California

At the start of last month, a small cadre of animal rights protestors snuck onto the Golden Gate Fields racetrack, lay down with arms interlocked in pipes, and halted live racing–as well as a vaccination drive on facility grounds–until police intervention saw their removal.

While the incident had a flash-in-the-pan quality, it had the corollary effect of reminding those within the sport here in the Golden State of the somewhat precarious position in which it still finds itself–an important part of the economic puzzle, employing tens of thousands, but one that doesn't always fit squarely with the state's broader progressive bona fides on animal welfare.

And so, placed in the context of the last two years, during which time the sport has been buffeted by sweeping reforms and hitherto unbeknownst scrutiny, it begs the question: Where does the state's industry now find itself in terms of political favor and cultural currency?

The answer appears both promising and cautionary, with the California state senate's vote against the reappointment of Wendy Mitchell to the California Horse Racing Board (CHRB) Monday providing yet another indicator of a delicate balancing act.

“Two years ago, at this date, we were sitting at meetings with The Stronach Group [TSG], reviewing various plans whether to close Santa Anita for the rest of the meet,” said Greg Avioli, president and CEO of the Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC), pointing to the welfare crisis that had engulfed Santa Anita.

Since then, the sports political roller coaster has been helter-skelter, taking in a joint hearing in Sacramento, a letter of condemnation from senator Dianne Feinstein, major pieces of legislation, a regulatory board dramatically reshaped by Governor Gavin Newsom–who told The New York Times in 2019, “I'll tell you, talk about a sport whose time is up unless they reform. That's horse racing”–as well as a proposed ballot initiative to end racing in the state (one that was ultimately extinguished before voters had a chance to weigh in).

Two years later, sweeping equine welfare and safety reforms have proven markedly effective. “We've come a long way,” Avioli said.

Del Mar | Horsephotos

As to the temperature in Sacramento toward horse racing, “We have conversations with legislators and representatives weekly. In this last week, the conversations have focused on the recent safety results, particularly at Del Mar,” Avioli added, referring to recent news out of the Southern California track that it is among the safest in the nation for the third year straight year.

As a result, “I do not expect that you're going to see additional bills on the same subject,” said Avioli about prospective legislation in Sacramento. “The core issues of horse safety and welfare right now seem to be adequately addressed by the legislature.”

That sentiment appears mirrored by Senator Bill Dodd, whose legislative fingerprint can be seen on a number of horse racing-related bills over the past two years.

A spokesperson for the state senator, who represents the northern San Francisco Bay Area and Delta region, wrote in an email: “As chairman of the committee overseeing horse racing, Sen. Dodd follows developments in the sport closely and continues to monitor his previous measures to improve rider and equine safety. He has not introduced any new legislation in this area so far this year.”

Josh Rubinstein, Del Mar Thoroughbred Club president, strikes a similar tone to Avioli.

Industry progress made at the local, state and national level–including recent passage of the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act (HISA)–means there is now a “different tone in our conversations with governmental leadership” compared to two years ago, Rubinstein wrote, in an emailed response to questions.

“We have real tangible progress we can point to, which makes a difference,” he added.

 

Protesters on the track at Golden Gate | Direct Action Everywhere

“I think there's some positives in all of this”

And so, what to make of events up at Golden Gate, by an organization called Direct Action Everywhere, which purportedly seeks to shut the facility down?

Anti-racing protests in California aren't new or novel–picketers have routinely descended upon both Del Mar and Santa Anita in recent years, often prompting workers at both facilities to stage counter-protests.

Indeed, Scott Chaney, CHRB executive director, downplays the significance of what occurred last month.

“I don't think a few protestors at Golden Gate are representative of the larger population in California,” Chaney said, highlighting both overarching public sentiment toward the sport, and the fractured nature of animal welfare organizations in the state with disparate sets of goals and agendas. “I think lumping animal rights activists in one group is unfair.”

At the same time, Chaney acknowledged the long thread of political activism woven throughout the history of the City of Berkeley–whose district Golden Gate Fields partially overlaps–as something the industry needs to be cognizant of.

Political pressure was brought to bear on the CHRB last October, when Berkeley City officials wrote the board requesting an investigation into equine fatalities at Golden Gate.

(The track routinely boasts a better equine fatality rate than the national average, which was 1.53 per 1,000 starts in 2019, according to The Jockey Club. In 2020, it was 1.23, 0.64 in 2019, and 1.12 in 2018.)

The CHRB responded with a letter explaining these rates, while listing a series of increased medication and safety measures the board had recently undertaken statewide and intended modifications for the future, including those specifically geared toward Golden Gate.

How was the letter received? “I'm not certain,” said Chaney.

“But to be fair, this is all against the backdrop of a global pandemic,” he added, saying that the track had built a good rapport with the City's Public Health Division as a result of a large facility outbreak last year, illustrated by the vaccination drive conducted on Golden Gate property. “I think there's some positives in all of this.”

In a written response to questions, Craig Fravel, CEO of 1/ST RACING, wrote, “At 1/ST, we believe in the right to free speech and peaceful protest, but the types of actions exhibited by the activists that disrupted live racing at Golden Gate Fields last month run directly counter to a safe and healthy environment and endangered the lives of thousands of people as well as the horses they were claiming to protect.

“Animal rights and extreme activists are very different,” Fravel added. “Those in our industry who stand for ethical horse racing believe in the protection of these beautiful creatures and are working together to ensure that racehorses are cared for before, during and after their racing careers.”

 

A surface safety evaluation at Santa Anita | Horsephotos

“It's a very substantial undertaking”

Which brings us to the path forward, and political land mines still to be negotiated. Come the next election cycle, could racing face another potential challenge at the state ballot?

“You always have to be cognizant in California–just look at Governor Newsom and the recall effort–of the ballot initiative as a challenge for horse racing,” Avioli said.

However, “You generally need upwards of $100 million to support a ballot initiative successfully. It's a very substantial undertaking,” he said, adding, “There is no indication of serious talk of a ballot initiative right now to address horse racing.”

One important distinction, said Avioli, is that a history of state initiatives related to animal welfare show support “to some level” by the Humane Society.

“We have good relations with them,” he said, of the global non-profit. “It all goes back to the fact that we did two years of the most aggressive reforms that have ever been done in this country in horse racing and it appears to be working.”

But that brings us to perhaps the biggest sticking point moving forward, one that highlights the various levers and conflicts tugging at the sport both within and without: the issue of continuing reform.

Horsephotos

According to Avioli, after two years of snowballing regulatory change, the industry is at a point of consolidation, allowing the dust to first settle on a radically altered landscape before further modification.

“The CHRB seems right now to be not in an activist role,” he said. “They understand the massive amount of new regulations that have been put in place over the last 24 months, and they do not expect it to continue at the same rate.

“Now's the time to focus more on implementing those–see the results of the new rules–before we go on and add additional ones,” Avioli said.

Yet, Kathy Guillermo, vice president of People for the Ethical Treatment of Animals (PETA)–an organization, alongside the Humane Society, afforded key industry input–is critical of the rate of change since the CHRB has undergone its recent personnel reshuffle.

“For all the criticisms of the previous board, at the end, we were working very closely with them to try to make those changes,” Guillermo said, pointing to efforts that included tightened rules pertaining to multiple violators, as well as the implementation of central pharmacies on racetrack grounds, mirroring jurisdictions like Hong Kong.

And while the reforms instituted have seen the industry turn a corner, “a lot more still needs to be done,” Guillermo said.

“There has always been a division in racing about what needs to be done to correct the public perception. I see about half the people really get it,” Guillermo added. “And I see other entrenched parts of racing that still refuse to believe that they're going to have to be accountable to anybody but themselves. And they need to get on the same page.”

Here, it should be noted that the new board has been split on a number of controversial topics in recent months, including the issue of whether to grant Los Alamitos–the latest California facility under scrutiny for its welfare record–a truncated six-month license. After an extended period, the board granted the facility its typical 12-month license.

More recently, the panel was divided over the issue of whether to implement even tighter whip reforms than currently exist, with the board eventually voting 4-3 to table the motion for the time being.

Guillermo released the following statement regarding commissioner Mitchell's failed re-election to the CHRB:

“I've never had a conversation with Wendy Mitchell, nor has PETA ever contacted her directly, but it has become clear to us in the last several months that the California Horse Racing Board has failed to bring about the promised changes to protect horses.”

Guillermo added: “The board and, apparently, the California legislature remain beholden to the old guard in racing that considers abuse and death to be normal business practices, rather than listening to the public that has demanded change. PETA won't sit by quietly while the body count mounts. Legislators can expect to hear from our 700,000 supporters in the state.”

Del Mar | Horsephotos

It's unsurprising, then, many are circumspect about this ongoing balancing act.

“While we may not always agree, as stakeholders we share a collective vision to ensure a healthy and sustainable future for horse racing in North America,” wrote Fravel.

“There is a vast ecosystem that makes up the Thoroughbred racing industry and in order to move forward, the entire industry needs to continue to prioritize equine health and safety and to demonstrate that priority at every turn,” he added.

“It's complicated,” admitted Rubinstein, distinguishing between inclinations from the fringe elements of the animal rights movement and the more orthodox viewpoints of the mainstream.

“So, our messaging is aimed at the more reasonable people who want to see the sport continue and thrive, who appreciate that it is an economic engine for so many people, that it protects family farms and working open space.”

The majority of people support horse racing, he added. “As an industry, we have to take the initiative in Washington and at a state level to affirm recent progress and our overall commitment to safety and welfare.”

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New COVID Protocols Outlined at Santa Anita, Golden Gate

Based on increasing vaccine availability and declining COVID-19 numbers, The Stronach Group and TOC outlined new protocols at Santa Anita Park and Golden Gate Fields to allow licensed owners more access to the grounds.

SANTA ANITA PARK

Mandatory Santa Anita protocols, including social distancing (a minimum of six feet), face cloths covering your nose and mouth, health screening, temperature check and wrist banding will continue to be enforced for everyone entering Santa Anita, including the Stable Area.

Winner's Circle

After each race, the winning horse will be brought into the winners' circle and a limited number of owners will be allowed access for the customary photo.

  • Social distancing (minimum of six feet) in the winner's circle will be strictly enforced.
  • Entrance to the winner's circle will be restricted to a maximum of eight owners and/or guests to allow for social distancing.
  • Owners and/or guests will be required to stand on the West Side of the winner's circle.
  • Face cloths covering nose and mouth remain mandatory at Santa Anita, including the winner's circle.

Stable Area Access

  • Each trainer can authorize a maximum of two CHRB licensed owners to go to their barn at any one time between 10:00 a.m. – 7:00p.m. daily.
  • Prior to entrance, owners and their guest must pre-register with the Santa Anita Racing Office and submit one of the following to the Santa Anita Racing

Stable Office:

  • Negative COVID-19 test result that is received within 72 hours prior to the day requested (Negative COVID test can remain on file for a maximum of 30 days)
  • Proof of completed scheduled COVID-19 vaccination doses
  • Each owner may bring one additional family member.
  • Owners may only visit the barn where their horse is stabled.
  • Owners must keep their visits to the outside areas, including the stall entrances, and not enter stable offices, tack rooms or other enclosed locations.

Workouts/Afternoon Racing

  • The current protocol (i.e. CHRB licensed owners are permitted each race day) will remain in place for the time being, and CHRB licensed owners should continue to contact TOC to put your name on the reservation list for each race day. No reservation is required for morning workouts. Contact mforney@toconline.com, eperon@toconline.com, or call Mary Forney at (626) 826-3782.

GOLDEN GATE FIELDS

The grandstand and winner's circle at Golden Gate Fields are open for live racing to CHRB licensed owners with the following protocols in place:

  • Owners must provide a Negative COVID-19 test result that is received within 72 hours prior to the race day (Negative COVID test can remain on file for a maximum of 30 days).
  • N95 masks covering your nose and mouth remain mandatory at Golden Gate Fields, including the winner's circle.
  • Social distancing (minimum of six-feet) in the winner's circle will be strictly enforced.
  • Entrance to the winner's circle will be restricted to a limited number of owners and/or their guests to allow for social distancing.
  • The grandstand is open for morning workouts on Saturday and Sunday mornings to owners under the aforementioned protocols.

The local health department continues to mandate that the stable area at Golden Gate Fields remains closed to owners, however, conversations are continuing to lessen those restrictions as the COVID-19 numbers improve in the county, and an update could be issued soon.

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Major Boost Puts Del Mar Summer Purses Over $700,000 Daily; Ship And Win Bonuses Doubled

The Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, Calif., will implement a major purse increase for its upcoming summer race meeting opening on Saturday, July 17, including substantial increases in all overnight purses and record incentives for owners and trainers that ship out-of-state horses to race at Del Mar through its popular “Ship and Win” program, track officials have announced.

Average daily overnight purses for the 2021 season will be increased by over 30% as compared to 2019 levels during which the track operated an uninterrupted racing schedule. With the increases announced today, Del Mar expects to average more than $700,000 a day in purses this summer.

The “Ship and Win” program for horses entering from outside California is doubling both its participation fee for owners (from $2,000 to $4,000) and its purse bonus from 20% to 40% for all eligible races. The purse bonus will be upped to 50% for dirt races in the “Ship and Win” program.

“We've got some real momentum in California as we prepare for the 2021 season and, based on the inquiries we're receiving, owners and trainers are taking notice,” said Del Mar's executive vice president for racing, Tom Robbins. “Our partnership with the Thoroughbred Owners of California, TVG and The Stronach Group has us on track for one of the most lucrative seasons in Del Mar history, which will be a boost for California racing and help set the stage for us to host the Breeders' Cup here again in November.”

The 2021 purse enhancements are due in part to a partnership with the Thoroughbred Owners of California, FanDuel Group's TVG horse racing television network and advance-deposit wagering platform and The Stronach Group's 1/ST Racing. The multi-party agreement, announced earlier this year, is expected to inject up to $15 million into California Thoroughbred purses and programs over the next two years.

In addition, Del Mar's total handle for its 2020 racing seasons was well above initial projections – despite fans not being allowed onsite – adding funding to the purse increases for the upcoming live racing season.

Among the increases for overnights, maiden special weight races will jump from $55,000 during the 2020 summer meet to $70,000 this summer, maiden-claiming $20,000 races rise from $19,000 last year to $25,000 and open $40,000 claiming races purses will increase from $37,000 to $47,000.

As an example of how these increases affect the “Ship and Win” program, a maiden special weight race on the main track this summer will carry a purse of $105,000 ($70,000 plus a 50% bonus) plus a $4,000 starter bonus for out of state horses that qualify for the program.

“Anticipation for Del Mar's race meetings is always high among horsemen but it will be even more so this year with the increased purse structure announced today,” said Gary Fenton, chairman of the TOC. “We look forward to continuing our work with the state's key racing stakeholders to further strengthen California's year-round racing program.”

Track officials also noted that Del Mar's 2021 stakes schedule will be released in the coming weeks and that purse levels will be raised for several of its summer stakes races.

Del Mar will offer a 31-day summer racing season this year after racing 27 days in 2020. It will open with Saturday and Sunday cards (July 17-18), then switch to a Thursday through Sunday schedule for the balance of the meet. The summer season will close, as usual, on Labor Day, Monday, September 6.

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