Brody’s Cause Filly Kalypso Proves Best As Santa Ynez Favorite

In a performance befitting her short odds, Bob Baffert's Kalypso showed good early speed and took command turning for home en route to a facile 1 ¾-length victory in Sunday's Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif.  Ridden for the first time by Joel Rosario, Kalypso got seven furlongs in 1:23.42 and provided Baffert with his record sixth win in the Santa Ynez, an early prep for both the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks and the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.

Breaking from the far outside in a field of six sophomore fillies, Kalypso – from the first crop by Spendthrift Farm stallion Brody's Cause – enjoyed an early neck advantage on longshot Brilliant Cut, who broke from the rail.  Heading up the backside, these two were head and head with Kalypso obviously well within herself.  Turning for home, Kalypso asserted her dominance and she went on to a most impressive win as much the best.

“She broke good and put me right into the race, in a good position,” said Rosario, who notched his third stakes win through five days of racing.  “I'm just happy to be on her.  She was the best horse and she'll be better going longer distances.”

Most recently a close second going a mile and one sixteenth in the G1 Starlet at Los Alamitos Dec. 5, Kalypso was off as the 4-5 favorite and paid $3.80, $2.80 and $2.20.

“She has natural speed and she's a really fast filly,” said Baffert, who scratched morning line favorite Varda earlier but still ran three fillies.  “She had the lead for a long time in the (Starlet), backing up it's a big difference to go seven eighths.  The way she broke today, she was in a good spot and she was really training well coming into this race…

“I would try her long again, as they get older, they are maturing.  You can slow her down a little bit, like today she was pretty relaxed.  She wasn't too rank where she went real fast but we'll just see how (she) comes out of it.”

Owned by David A. Bernsen, LLC, Rockingham Ranch and Chad Littlefield, Kalyspo picks up 10 qualifying points to the Kentucky Oaks on April 30 and with her first graded stakes win, is now 5-2-2-1.  With the winner's share of $120,000, she increased her earnings to $245,600.

Updated Kentucky Oaks points leaderboard

Ridden by Mike Smith, Frosteria rallied four-wide from well off the pace to outrun Brilliant Cut by 1 ½ lengths.  The second choice at 7-2, Frosteria, a Godolphin homebred also trained by Baffert, paid $3.60 and $2.80.

Off at 30-1 with Ricky Gonzalez, the Doug O'Neill-trained Brilliant Cut finished 3 ½ lengths clear of Queengol and paid $5.80 to show.

Runner-up Frosteria picked up four Kentucky Oaks qualifying points, while Brilliant Cut got two and Queengol, one.

Baffert, who won last year's Santa Ynez with Bast, entered today's proceedings tied with D. Wayne Lukas with five lifetime wins in the race, which was run for the 70th time today.

Fractions on the race were 22.53, 45.13 and 1:10.18.

Live racing returns with first post time for a nine-race card on Friday at 12:30 p.m. All of Santa Anita's races are available free of charge at santaanita.com/live and fans can watch and wager via 1st.com/Bet.

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Kalypso a Revelation in Santa Ynez

David Bernsen, Rockingham Ranch and Chad Littlefield’s Kalypso (Brody’s Cause), the 4-5 favorite, strode home an easy winner of the GII Santa Ynez S. at Santa Anita Sunday, becoming the second graded winner from the first crop of her Grade I-winning sire. Cutting back to seven furlongs following a runner-up effort behind her Santa Ynez-scratched stablemate Varda (Distorted Humor) in the 1 1/16-mile GI Starlet S. last month, the chestnut filly broke sharply and had the advantage in the early strides. But she was soon joined by Brilliant Cut (Speightstown) and those two rivals battled through fractions of :22.53 and :45.13. Kalypso took charge nearing the stretch and, once she found her best stride, powered away in the final furlong to finish 1 3/4 lengths in front under a hand ride as stablemate Frosteria (Frosted)–still a maiden–made late progress to be second for the fourth time in four lifetime starts. Brilliant Cut was third.

“She broke good and put me right into the race, in a good position,” said winning jockey Joel Rosario, who was riding Kalypso for the first time in the Santa Ynez. “I’m just happy to be on her. She was the best horse and she’ll be better going longer distances.”

Kalypso provided trainer Bob Baffert with his record sixth win in the Santa Ynez a day after he got back on the Triple Crown trail with the one-two finishers–Life is Good (Into Mischief) and Medina Spirit (Protonico)–in Saturday’s GIII Sham S.

“She has natural speed and she’s a really fast filly,” Baffert said of Kalypso, who was one of three fillies he saddled in the Santa Ynez. “She had the lead for a long time in the [Starlet], backing up, it’s a big difference to go seven-eighths. The way she broke today, she was in a good spot and she was really training well coming into this race, so it’s pretty exciting that she got a win.”

Kalypso opened her career with a third-place effort going 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar Aug. 15 and was second at that track and trip Sept. 5 before breaking her maiden going six furlongs in the Oct. 18 Anoakia S. She had a 2 1/2-length advantage in upper stretch before being overtaken by Varda in the 1 1/16-mile GI Starlet S. at Los Alamitos last time out Dec. 5 and was shedding the blinkers for this second graded stakes attempt.

“I would try her long again, as they get older they are maturing,” Baffert said of future plans for Kalypso. “You can slow her down a little bit, like today she was pretty relaxed. She wasn’t too rank where she went real fast, but we’ll just see how they come out of it. The other filly [Frosteria], I think I’ll just run her in a maiden race.”

Pedigree Notes:

Brody’s Cause, winner of the 2016 GI Toyota Blue Grass S., was  represented by 2020 GIII Iroquois S. winner Sittin on Go, as well as GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. runner-up Smiley Sobotka and GII Best Pal S. runner-up Girther.

Malibu Cove, a full-sister to multiple graded winner Prospective, produced a filly by Hit It a Bomb in 2019 and a colt by Mor Spirit in 2020. She was bred back to Jimmy Creed. The mare is also a full to Enhanced, who produced last year’s GIII Bashford Manor S. third-place finisher Herd Immunity (Union Rags).

Sunday, Santa Anita
SANTA YNEZ S.-GII, $200,500, Santa Anita, 1-3, 3yo, f, 7f, 1:23.42, ft.
1–KALYPSO, 122, f, 3, by Brody’s Cause
                1st Dam: Malibu Cove, by Malibu Moon
                2nd Dam: Spirited Away, by Awesome Again
                3rd Dam: Cape North, by Capote
   1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($240,000 Ylg ’19 FTKJUL). O-David
A Bernsen, LLC, Rockingham Ranch & Chad Littlefield;
B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Joel Rosario.
$120,000. Lifetime Record: GISP, 5-2-2-1, $245,600. Werk Nick
   Rating: B. Click for eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Frosteria, 120, f, 3, Frosted–Hystericalady, by Distorted
Humor. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Bob Baffert. $40,000.
3–Brilliant Cut, 120, f, 3, Speightstown–Polish a Diamond, by
The Factor. ($160,000 Wlg ’18 KEENOV; $160,000 Ylg ’19
KEESEP). O-ERJ Racing LLC, David Kenney, William Strauss,
Dennis and Doug O’Neill; B-McCauley Farm & Speightstown
Syndicate (KY); T-Doug F. O’Neill. $24,000.
Margins: 1 3/4, 1HF, 3HF. Odds: 0.90, 3.60, 30.90.
Also Ran: Queengol, Nasreddine, Exotic West. Scratched: Varda.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

 

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‘Ready To Take Our Shot’: Romans’ Breeders’ Cup Brigade Led By Juveniles Girl Daddy, Sittin On GO

Trainer Dale Romans had a monumental Kentucky Derby week with Albaugh Family Stable's duo of stakes winners Girl Daddy and Sittin On Go. The twosome will join three other Romans trainees in next weekend's Breeders' Cup World Championships at Keeneland.

“It was a really great week to win both the Pocahontas (Grade 3) and Iroquois (G3),” Romans said. “We're coming into the Breeders' Cup with some good chances and ready to take our shot. I think that across the board each of the Breeders' Cup races are shaping up to be competitive. It's fun getting to compete on this stage and seeing who is the best of the best.”

Sittin On Go, a 2-year-old undefeated son of former Romans-trained Brody's Cause, is one of the top contenders for the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). Also scheduled to join him in the starting gate is Albaugh's maiden winner Smiley Sobotka.

Girl Daddy, who won the $200,000 Pocahontas by two lengths, is likely to face seven rivals in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1).

“Obviously, long term, you always have next year's Kentucky Derby and Oaks in the back of your mind,” Romans said. “These horses have shown they have potential to get to that level in the future.”

Romans also pre-entered CJ Thoroughbreds, Left Turn Racing and Casner Racing's $500,000 Derby City Distaff (GI) third-place finisher Sally's Curlin to the $1 million Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (GI) and Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister's $200,000 Fayette (GII) hero Mr Freeze to the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (GI).

All five horses are expected to have their final works prior to the Breeders' Cup Friday or Saturday. They will ship to Keeneland on Monday, according to Romans.

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Taking Stock: Fifth-Year Stallions and Brody’s Cause

Much has been made lately in Kentucky on farms reducing stud fees in response to the blighted economy, but there’s a group of stallions whose fees would have mostly dropped as a matter of course even in booming times. These are second- through fifth-year stallions; frequently, fees for horses entering their fifth season at stud as their first-crop runners turn three show particularly pronounced drops from their initial fees.

A small commercial breeder contacted me the other day to discuss the reduced 2021 stud fee for a stallion whose first crop is racing at two now. She noted how well the stallion matches her mare on pedigree and physique and the 50% reduction in fee from his first year at stud but worried that “his first 2-year-olds are not yet lighting the racetrack on fire, and his sales figures plummeted this year.”

This is a common dilemma for breeders and stud farms alike. Farms need to price fifth-year horses caught in this tricky bubble attractively enough to attract breeders in order to keep both groups in the game on stallions whose long-term viability in Kentucky will be determined in the next year or two. One false move in pricing could spell commercial disaster for one, the other, or both.

And it’s not just pricing, either, as I told this breeder. “You’d be breeding in his fifth year at stud. You’ll have 5-year-olds, 4-year-olds, 3-year-olds, and 2-year-olds [racing] when you sell [your yearling], so you’d have to really like him, because if they are not successful, it will be tough. And even if they are successful, there’s a ceiling [on price] unless he turns into Curlin.”

Curlin, who’d entered stud at Lane’s End in 2009 for a $75,000 fee, got his first winner in the most dreaded of places–the Central Moscow Hippodrome in Russia, on June 17, 2012. He finished the year ninth on the freshman sire list with no 2-year-old stakes winners to his credit and stood for $25,000 in 2013–his fifth year at stud. The stallion’s yearling average in 2012 was $70,000 versus $137,000 in 2011 for his first-crop yearlings. However, the Horse of the Year eventually turned things around, and by 2015, when his first crop was five, his yearlings averaged $211,000. Curlin will stand for $175,000 in 2021, the same as this year. His 2020 yearlings to date have averaged $342,000.

Stallions with first-crop 3-year-olds next year can change perceptions quickly with a few early-season stakes winners, particularly if they’re on the Classic trail, guaranteeing patronage for another year or two by finishing out the season strong with two crops–3-year-old and 2-year-olds–at the races.

Daredevil did some of this in 2020 with Gl Preakness S. and GI Alabama S. winner Swiss Skydiver and Gl Kentucky Oaks winner Shedaresthedevil after a poor run with his first 2-year-olds, but by then he’d already been jettisoned from Kentucky after only four seasons at stud.

However, it’s the rare stallion that can carry that momentum forward, because he’ll need to do it with mares of decreasing quality in years two, three, and four. Most stallions tend to have their highest output of stakes winners from their first crop, when they get their best mares, and numbers tend to decrease commensurately with a decrease in mare quality.

I noted in this space Feb. 27 (Third- And Fourth-Year Sire Issues) that of the top 10 freshman sires of 2017, five had left Kentucky by 2020–when their first foals were five–including the leader, Overanalyze, along with Shanghai Bobby (#3), Animal Kingdom (#4), Flat Out (#7), and Justin Phillip (#10).

Brody’s Cause

A strong opinion on a horse, formed by an analysis of facts and an evaluation of price versus the competition, is the best way to approach a fifth-year stallion.

For example, Spendthrift’s multiple Grade l winner Brody’s Cause (Giant’s Causeway), a $350,000 yearling purchase for Albaugh Family Stables trained by Dale Romans, will stand in 2021, his fifth year, for $5,000, down from the $12,500 he started out at in 2017 and the $7,500 he was listed at this year. He is ninth on the freshman sire list through today behind leader Not This Time (Giant’s Causeway), another Albaugh horse whose fee has jumped to $40,000 in 2021 from an initial $15,000 in 2017 and the $12,500 in 2020.

However, Brody’s Cause has eye-opening stats versus the competition and at the price.

Both Not This Time and Brody’s Cause are each represented by two black-type winners so far–the most among freshman sires, along with Nyquist (Uncle Mo), whose 2021 fee is $75,000; and Outwork (Uncle Mo), who stands next year for $15,000.

Brody’s Cause is also tied with Not This Time and Nyquist in the top 10 by number of black-type runners with four apiece, but he’s done this from 55 foals to 95 for Not This Time and 80 for Nyquist.

As for the quality of his runners, five of his six winners have won maiden special weights while another, the Bob Baffert-trained filly Kalypso, won for the first time in the Listed Anoakia S. Oct. 18 at Santa Anita after placing in two Del Mar maiden special weights. Kalypso, by the way, was a $240,000 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July yearling.

On the same day of Kalypso’s win, the gelding Gospel Way ran second in the Listed Display S. at Woodbine–his second stakes placing after a third in the Victoria S. at the same track.

Earlier this month, Brody’s Cause showcased another talented maiden winner. A $185,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling for Albaugh and Romans, Smiley Sobotka graduated at Keeneland in his second start in the style of a horse who looks to have a bigger future next year at three. The colt had dead-heated for second in his debut at Ellis over 6 1/2 furlongs but found the mile and a sixteenth at Keeneland much more to his liking.

This brings me to Sittin On Go, Brody’s Cause’s most accomplished runner to date. A $65,000 Keeneland November weanling and $62,000 Keeneland September RNA, he also races for Albaugh and is trained by Romans. Sittin On Go won his debut at Ellis in a five-furlong dirt sprint by four-plus lengths in mid-August and returned last month in the one-mile Glll Iroquois S. at Churchill to win impressively by 2 1/2 lengths. The runner up, Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow), ran third in his next start in the GI Champagne S. at Belmont, though he was beaten by more than 14 lengths by the leader of the division, Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music). However, the third-place finisher in the Iroquois, Super Stock (Dialed In), also came back to place third to Essential Quality (Tapit) in the Gl Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland, less than five lengths behind the winner.

Sittin On Go has solid Grade l formlines, and he will test Jackie’s Warrior in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile next.

Brody’s Cause has one other stakes horse, Girther. A $2,500 Keeneland November weanling, $4,000 Keeneland September yearling, and $20,000 OBS March 2-year-old, Girther won a Del Mar maiden special weight in July in his second start and came back a month later at the same venue to run a neck second to Weston (Hit It a Bomb, also at Spendthrift) in the Gll Best Pal S.

Brody’s Cause won three of eight starts, including the Breeders’ Futurity at two and the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at three, both at Keeneland, and earned $1,168,138. His sire Giant’s Causeway doesn’t yet have an elite son in North America, but he did in Europe with Shamardal, who died earlier this year. Here, he has the good First Samurai at Claiborne plus several others trying to rise to that level, but in Not This Time and Brody’s Cause he’s still got his name in the hat with two promising young guns, and who knows?

Spendthrift’s flagship horse Into Mischief also started off for $12,500, dropped to $7,500, and is now booked full at $225,000. And the farm’s elder statesman, Malibu Moon, began his career at Country Life in Maryland for $3,000 and went on to sire a GI Kentucky Derby winner among many others of note.

My advice to the small breeder looking for value at $15,000 and down? For the price, Brody’s Cause is worth the gamble.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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