Equibase Analysis: Run Classic Poised To Provide Big Upset In Louisiana Derby

This Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby is the first “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system race to offer the winner enough points (100) to guarantee a start in the gate on the first Saturday in May. The winner's share of the $1 million isn't bad either, but in spite of those two incentives only eight horses were entered.

The two most accomplished runners, Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon, have traded wins on the run up to this race. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January but ended up third in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes four weeks later, that race won by Mandaloun.

Risen Star runner-up Proxy, who also finished second in the Lecomte, will attempt to turn the tables on his rivals. O Besos finished fourth and nearly six lengths behind third place finisher Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star and may have his work cut out for him, as may both Rightandjust and Starrininmydreams, who finished sixth and ninth, respectively, in the race.

Hot Rod Charlie ships in from California off a big effort when beaten a neck and a nose for the win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and certainly fits with the best in this field. Last but certainly not least, Run Classic steps into stakes competition off a maiden win over the track in his second career start.

It is still early in the season, so much so that horses which have only run a couple of times can win Kentucky Derby prep races like the Louisiana Derby. This was evidenced last weekend when Concert Tour won the Rebel Stakes in only the third start of his career and his first in a two-turn race. Run Classic has already run two turns so that is not a question and in that regard he is one step further along as compared to Concert Tour. Run Classic debuted in mid-January in a sprint and finished second of 10, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the process.

Stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth for career start number two four weeks later, on the same day as the Risen Star, Run Classic stalked the pacesetter while third in the early stages, put in a quick burst to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, then coasted home to an easy three and one-quarter length win. Although he earned a 90 figure, I feel he could have run faster if need be.

Putting those figures in perspective, likely Louisiana Derby betting favorite Mandaloun earned a 97 figure winning the Risen Star. Being as Run Classic is more lightly raced he may have more improving to do, as compared to Mandaloun and others already proven competitive in similar races. Specifically, making his third career start and second in a route, Run Classic has a lot of potential to leap frog over the more logical contenders and post the upset to win. That is exactly what By My Standards did to post the upset win in this race in 2019 at odds of 22/1 when winning the race after breaking his maiden in a route over the track one race earlier. By My Standards was trained by Bret Calhoun, who trains Run Classic, and that is precisely why I'm choosing Run Classic to post the upset win in the Louisiana Derby.

Hot Rod Charlie entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November off a maiden win in a route. Then in the Juvenile and making his second consecutive start in a dirt route, Hot Rod Charlie finished second at odds of 94 to 1, earning a career-best 100 in the process. Returning for his 3-year-old campaign at the end of January, Hot Rod Charlie proved his Breeders' Cup effort to be no fluke as he closed from fourth after stumbling at the start, missing the win by inches in a three horse photo. The 97 figure earned can logically by improved upon in his second start off a layoff so Hot Rod Charlie deserves strong consideration as a contender to win this race.

Mandaloun won the first two races of his career, both sprints, with a 97 figure in the best of the pair. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte Stakes, Mandaloun was really no threat for wire-to-wire winner Midnight Bourbon but did finish just a head behind runner-up Proxy, perhaps because the winner got an uncontested lead and also because the winner had the experience of running two-turn races previously. Improving off the experience, Mandaloun turned the tables on Midnight Bourbon to win the Risen Star clearly by one and one- half lengths, equaling the 97 figure earned one month earlier. Since the distance of the Louisiana Derby is only one-sixteenth of a mile farther than the Risen Star, I don't see any issue with Mandaloun running his best here. Whether that best effort is good enough to beat the improving Run Classic and Hot Rod Charlie is the reason why this race will be a great one to watch and wager on.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Midnight Bourbon (99), O Besos (94), Proxy (97), Rightandjust (90) and Starrininmydreams (88).

Win Contenders:
Run Classic
Hot Rod Charlie
Mandaloun

Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 20 – Post Time 6:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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Thursday’s Racing Insights

Sponsored by Alex Nichols Agency

8th-Fair Grounds, $55K, Msw, 3yo, 6f, post time: 5:23 p.m. ET

An intriguing cast of sophomore colts seek their diplomas at Fair Grounds Thursday. Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc. paid $500,000 for K C Rocket (Kantharos) at OBSAPR '20 off a powerful :10 flat breeze and strong gallop out before turning him over to Al Stall, Jr. A $75,000 KEENOV weanling and $165,000 KEESEP yearling, the chestnut is out of a Midnight Lute daughter of dual champion Silverbulletday (Silver Deputy). While that Hall of Famer hasn't necessarily had the same success as a broodmare that she did on the track, her daughters have passed on the running gene, notably when matched up with fellow Baffert/Pegram standout Midnight Lute. A pair of half sisters to K C Rocket's dam Illicit Affair have produced GISW Shakin It Up (Midnight Lute) and GSW Govenor Charlie (Midnight Lute), respectively.

David Ingordo and Cherie DeVaux's Tulane Tryst (Into Mischief) figures to take some beating in his second start. The $310,000 KEESEP acquisition earned an 82 Beyer Speed Figure for a debut second over track and trip Jan. 30 behind the Stall-trained He's in Charge (Candy Ride {Arg}).

Bret Calhoun has a pair signed on. Newcomer Mr. Wireless (Dialed In) is half to Ain't No Elmers (Goldencents), who garnered 'TDN Rising Star' status after going two-for-two by daylight here last year for the same barn. She'd go on to finish second in the GIII Miss Preakness S. in October. Calhoun also sends out Tom Durant's $950,000 Keeneland September buy Find New Roads (Quality Road), who is out of a half-sister to the dam 2017 GIII Lecomte S. winner Guest Suite (Quality Road) and from the family of A.P. Indy. The bay gets blinkers this time after checking in sixth as the favorite following a tardy start here Feb. 4.

Brad Cox pupil Colonel Bowman (Curlin) looks to atone after a pair of defeats as the favorite. The Godolphin homebred was second on debut here Jan. 2–one spot ahead of coupled entry-mate Gershwin (Distorted Humor), who came back to graduate next out. Colonel Bowman, meanwhile, checked in two spots behind Tulane Tryst last time. The son of GISW Dubai Escapade (Awesome Again) will shed the blinkers he sported last out.

Robert and Lawana Low homebred Artwork (Munnings) hinted at potential speed when firing a 1:00 flat bullet from the gate here Feb. 24. He is out of a Curlin daughter of the Lows' GISW Capote Belle (Capote). TJCIS PPs

 

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Calhoun Hopes Lightning Strikes Twice With Louisiana Derby Hopeful Run Classic

If trainer Bret Calhoun has his way, lightning will strike twice at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots on March 20. Two years ago, the Calhoun-trained By My Standards broke his maiden on the Risen Star (G2) undercard and parlayed that score to a win in the Louisiana Derby (G2). Run Classic is in position to pull off the same feat three weeks from now in the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby.

Tom Durant's Run Classic, a 3-year-old son of Runhappy, has the look of a late-bloomer for Calhoun, as he didn't make his career debut until Jan. 16 at Fair Grounds, finishing a good second over 6 furlongs. He built on that effort on the Feb. 16 Risen Star undercard, when he stretched out to 1 1/16 miles, pulling clear for a 3 ¼-length win that brought obvious comparisons to By My Standards. The path of the two may be similar, but there are some differences as well.

“We were lucky enough to make this move once before but By My Standards had had a little more seasoning,” Calhoun said. “Unfortunately this horse is a little lighter on seasoning. I think and hope he can make it up with talent and was able to learn enough in those two races to have enough.”

Allied Racing Stable's By My Standards broke his maiden in his fourth career start and was able to learn some lessons along the way. That experience came in handy when he upset the Louisiana Derby at 22-1. Run Classic, who has proven to be a bit more precocious, is still learning on the fly, but he's clearly shown the ability to be a top horse. Calhoun admitted the Louisiana Derby has been on the radar, but he wasn't disappointed when Run Classic drew the rail in his debut and then fell short of reeling in the speedy Blameworthy.

“I think sometimes you get upset when you don't win, but him running second that day from the inside was beneficial moving forward and to maybe get to the Louisiana Derby,” Calhoun said. “The fact he had to overcome some things, face some traffic; I think him getting beat that day was the best thing to happen. It allowed him to run two turns against maidens and get some more seasoning.”

Run Classic put it all together in his first two-turn start, as he settled in third early, tracked the leaders, opened up in midstretch, and drew off convincingly. The win was a culmination of sorts for Calhoun, along with Durant, who paid a hefty $475,000 for Run Classic at the 2020 Ocala Breeders' Sales Company March Sale of Two-Year-Olds in Training. As a son of grade 1-winning sprinter Runhappy, who never won going two turns, Calhoun new the price tag was a big one. He also knew it could have been a lot more.

“I think physically he looks like that kind of horse (that will go long),” Calhoun said. “Pedigree-wise he was a little bit suspect for distance, and I think that's why he didn't bring $800,000 or more. We did our homework and heavily put all of our faith into the physical aspect of him. When we bought this horse, this is what we bought him for.”

Run Classic will be spotting a lot of experience to some very talented horses, should he start in the Louisiana Derby. The top-3 finishers of the Risen Star—Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon—are all expected back and are clearly at the top of the local heap, while some talented new shooters will line up as well. Calhoun knows the hurdles, but he also knows the playbook to get it done.

“It's a huge step forward, going two races with maidens to the La. Derby horses, but we think he's up to it,” Calhoun said. “The fact I've done it before, how I had them prepared, it gives us confidence. I still think he was a little green and inexperienced. He ran and won on pure, raw talent. He's a pretty smart horse and I think he'll figure things out pretty quickly, and if he does, and moves forward mentally, I think physically he's there.”

Durant has been in the game for over 20 years and has played it at a high level, while not shying away from spending big in the sales ring. He also got a taste of the Triple Crown Trail in 2017, when Silver Dust ran in a trio of Derby preps at Oaklawn Park for then-trainer Randy Morse but was unable to advance on to the Run for the Roses. Calhoun is hoping Run Classic takes the final step for an owner who has put his time in.

“This is why Tom plays the game,” Calhoun said. “He loves horse racing in general, but he loves running in the top end and that's what he's striving to get to and he's very excited about. He's allowed us to go to the sales and improve the quality of horses he has. He's thrilled right now and hopefully we can keep going.”

As for By My Standards, the son of Goldencents is still going strong and is gearing up for a 5-year-old campaign. He followed up his Louisiana Derby win with an 11th-place finish in Louisville then was given the rest of the year off. The break proved a beneficial one, as By My Standards came back last year to win a trio of grade 2's and was second to champion Improbable in Saratoga's Whitney (G1) in August. He's now 6-for-14 lifetime, with over $1.8 million in earnings, and there's clearly only one thing left to accomplish.

“Our biggest goal this year would be to win a Grade 1 with him and we'll be in search of that,” Calhoun said. “Our whole schedule would be to try and get a grade 1. I think he has the potential to take another step forward this year. He's a horse that's gotten better throughout his career so far. He's remained very sound and physically he's gotten better all the time.”

By My Standards returned to the work tab for the first time February 15, going an easy 3 furlongs in :38.60 at Fair Grounds. As an older horse with plenty of furlongs under him, Calhoun indicated it won't take his stable star long to get ready, and races like Churchill Downs' Alysheba (G2), which By My Standards won last year, and their Stephen Foster (G2), a race he finished second in, could be early season goals this spring and early summer. Regardless, By My Standards gives Calhoun plenty of reasons to think he'll be better than ever this year after what he saw in his first work back.

“We got exactly what we wanted,” Calhoun said. “He went off very slow and picked it up at the end. He'll move to a half-mile this week and he'll progress very quickly.”

“When you give older horses time off, you always hope they come back mentally the same and with the same desire,” Calhoun continued. “That's yet to be determined, but he seems to be mentally and physically very good and we're optimistic we'll have a big year with him.”

Calhoun took over the training of Silver Dust a couple of years ago. The now 6-year-old son of Tapit was last seen finishing 10th in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile Nov. 7 at Keeneland. The veteran is 6-for-31 and has earned $885,677 in a distinguished career, and one that figures to resume soon.

“Silver Dust is pretty much ready to run,” Calhoun said. “I'm not sure where he's going to show up. We're just searching for a race.”

Although Silver Dust has enjoyed a stellar career, Durant certainly hopes that Run Classic puts it all together much more quickly. If he does, the Road to the Kentucky Derby might come calling.

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Four Stakes Wins Propel Diego Saenz To Jockey Of The Week Honors

Jockey Diego Saenz won four stakes races at Delta Downs on their richest program of the year to earn Jockey of the Week honors for the week of Feb. 8 through Feb. 14.

The award, which is voted on by a panel of racing experts, is for jockeys who are members of the Jockeys' Guild, the organization which represents more than 950 active riders in the United States as well as retired and permanently disabled jockeys.

Under jockey Diego Saenz and riding for trainer Tom Amoss and owners Maggi Moss and Greg Tramontin, No Parole was an easy winner in the Premier Day Sprint. No Parole covered the 5-furlong distance in 57.37 the fastest clocking of the season at that distance.

Trainer Bret Calhoun gave Saenz a leg up on Southern Beauty in the Premier Day Matron. Saenz roused her to the lead turning for home in the five-furlong sprint for older fillies and mares. The win was the fourth of the day for Saenz.

Eclipse award-winning trainer Brad Cox teamed with Saenz on Australasia in the Premier Day Starlet for 3-year-old fillies at one mile. Under Saenz, Australasia set the early pace and then took off to win by 7-1/4 lengths.

Riding for trainer Ronnie Averett in the Premier Day Bon Temps Starter, Saenz and Wild Mallory won the five-furlong test in front-running style.

Saez, who was born in Chihuahua, Mexico, has been riding professionally since 2004 primarily on the Louisiana circuit. He has won numerous riding titles at Delta Downs and currently sits in second place.

Lifetime to date, he has won 2,326 races and more than $47 million purses.

Saenz out polled fellow riders Eric Cancel who was leading jockey by number of wins and won a stakes at Aqueduct, Florent Geroux who won two stakes races at Fair Grounds, Gerard Melancon who won three stakes at Delta Downs and Flavien Prat who won a stakes race at Santa Anita.

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