Brendan Walsh | Horse Racing Free Tips

Impressive Maiden Winner Prevalence Could Show Up In Fountain Of Youth

Godolphin's sophomore homebred Prevalence, an impressive debut winner on the Pegasus World Cup (G1) undercard Jan. 23 at Gulfstream Park, breezed Friday morning in anticipation of a possible start in the $300,000 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth (G2) Saturday, Feb. 27.

With exercise rider and assistant trainer Tom Molloy up, Prevalence went five furlongs in 1:01 at Palm Meadows, Gulfstream's satellite training facility in Palm Beach County. It was the second work following his 8 ½-length maiden special weight triumph.

“He worked good and he galloped out good. We're happy with him,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “We're in good shape right now.”

Prevalence was sent off at 7-1 in his unveiling, which drew a full field of 12 including fellow first-time starter Stage Raider, a half-brother to 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify, and narrow favorite Holy Redeemer, by Blame.

After breaking a half-step slow, Prevalence quickly gathered himself and chased the pace for a quarter-mile before taking over the top spot through a half in 46.09 seconds. From there, the bay Medaglia d'Oro colt widened with each stride under a hand ride from Tyler Gaffalione, completing seven furlongs in 1:23.

“I thought he was a good horse before he ran, but did I expect him to do what he did? Absolutely not, especially one of mine first time out,” Walsh said. “They generally improve, so I would like to think that this guy has some improvement in him. We won't get too carried away. We'll move on to the next one, and he'll be given plenty of chances to prove himself as we go forward.”

The 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth is the next step for 3-year-olds on Gulfstream's road to the $750,000 Curlin Florida Derby (G1) presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa March 27. There is also an optional claiming allowance for 3-year-olds going 1 1/8 miles in the condition book for Thursday, Feb. 25.

“He ran so well at Gulfstream the last time we would probably like to keep him in something at Gulfstream. There's the Fountain of Youth and there's an allowance race there, as well. It's probably going to be one or the other,” Walsh said.

“We'll just see how he does here over the next few weeks and go from there. We'll let him tell us,” he added. “He'll probably have just a little work next weekend at some stage. If we go to the Fountain of Youth or the allowance race, he'll probably do a little bit next Friday or Saturday and that should set him up right.”

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‘One Step At A Time’: Undefeated Maxfield Stars In Fair Grounds’ Mineshaft

Maxfield is finally getting the chance to make up for lost time. Godolphin's homebred was forced to miss the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in 2019 and the Kentucky Derby (G1) last year but returned with aplomb in winning the local Tenacious to close out 2020. Saturday he starts as a prohibitive favorite in the $200,000 Mineshaft (G3) at 1 1/16 miles, which should serve as a perfect launching pad for what his connections hope will finally be a season-long campaign.

The Mineshaft is a worthy supporting feature on a six stakes, 13-race card dubbed “Louisiana Derby Day Preview Day”, which is highlighted by the $400,000 Risen Star (G2), presented by Lamarque Ford-Lincoln, and the $300,000 Rachel Alexandra (G2), presented by Fasig-Tipton. The Risen Star is by far the deepest and most competitive Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) prep to date and will offer a total of 85 Derby qualifying points to the top four finishers (50-20-10-5). The Rachel Alexandra will be offered for 3-year-old fillies, with the same 85 qualifying points up for grabs for the Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1).

The Mineshaft, Rachel Alexandra & Risen Star are all part of the “All Stakes Late Pick Five” (races 9-13) with an estimated pool of $400,000 and the “All Stakes Late Pick Four” (races 10-13) with an estimated pool of $750,000.

Trainer Brendan Walsh has had to endure some obvious disappointments with Maxfield (post 4 at 4-5 on Mike Diliberto's morning line, with Florent Geroux to ride), a 4-year-old son of Street Sense who is perfect in four starts and has long thought to be among the most talented horses in training. Showing it in the afternoon has proven to be a bit more difficult, as he's started just four times in what is now his third season of racing. Maxfield missed the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with a minor foot injury and then got derailed off the Derby Trail last year when he came out of a June workout with a condylar fracture of his right front cannon bone.

Walsh regrouped, aimed for 2021, and checked off the first box when Maxfield returned in the Dec. 19 Tenacious and won easily by 2 ½ lengths. He also did it being much closer to the lead. He settled in second early, which was in sharp contrast to his first three wins, when he was no closer than eighth at the first pace call. For Walsh, the adaptability Maxfield showed only added another club to his bag.

“He broke good, he was right outside the pace horse, and it worked out good,” Walsh said. “He's a horse that doesn't need to be ridden any particular way, he's very easy to rate as well. If someone wants to go quick, that's fine, we can sit off of them as well. We can ride him any way the race suits.”

The Mineshaft will also be just the second time Maxfield has been able to put back-to-back races together. He did it to start his career, winning on debut at Churchill in September 2019 before blasting Grade 1 foes by 5 ½ lengths in Keeneland's Breeders' Futurity a month later. Maxfield won the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill in June before his injury, then was off until the Tenacious. Needless to say, Walsh is looking forward to getting his stable star on an extended run for the first time in his career.

“I'm excited that we can get him on a schedule and build a foundation,” Walsh said. “The succession of the races is relatively close so you don't have to be as hard as them as you probably do going into the first race (off a layoff). Hopefully he can get into a nice little mode from here on in and we can keep ticking over. I think he'll improve for having had that first run. He was a little fresh too. And fitness-wise he should improve as well with that run off the bench.”

As with any trainer with a star horse, Walsh is left to balance the present with the future. Add in a horse like Maxfield, and the highwire becomes that much trickier to cross. Walsh expects to know a lot more after the Mineshaft.

“He's taught me not to look too far ahead but I have plenty of things going around in my head,” Walsh said in regards to the rest of his campaign. “You try to take it one step at a time. Saturday is going to be a big step for the horse. We'll get a great idea where we stand with him and where we are going forward.”

John Oxley's Enforceable (post 1 at 6-1 with Adam Beschizza) won the local Lecomte (G3) last year and was eventually seventh in the Kentucky Derby for trainer Mark Casse. The 4-year-old son of Tapit never could quite get back to his local win, as he lost six straight, though four came against the best of his generation. Enforceable put that all behind him Jan. 17, when he dazzled winning a local optional-claimer by eight lengths in extremely fast time, which has Casse's Fair Grounds assistant Dave Carroll eagerly looking forward to the Mineshaft with a horse that's been a barn favorite.

“He's loves the Fair Grounds and he's been near and dear to us with all the big races like the Kentucky Derby that he's taken us to,” Carroll said. “We were so proud of him last time; we weren't expecting that. Can he reproduce that back-to-back? We'll have to see but he's really doing well and we're looking forward to it.”

Madaket Stables, Wonder Stables, and Clint and Lance Gasaway's Wells Bayou (post 2 at 6-1 with John Velazquez) should improve off a third-place finish in the local Jan. 16 Louisiana (G3), as that was his first start since running fifth in Oaklawn Park's Arkansas Derby (G1) last May. The 4-year-old son of Lookin At Lucky wired the Louisiana Derby (G2) last year for trainer Brad Cox, who expects to see a tighter version of Wells Bayou Saturday, who has been training with Cox's talented 3-year-old Mandaloun, one of the favorites in the Risen Star.

“He had a fantastic move (on the 6th) working a bullet with Mandaloun and I'm excited about running him,” Cox said. “He should move forward, but he'll have to move way forward to beat a horse like Maxfield.”

Calumet Farm's homebred Blackberry Wine (post 7 at 5-1 with Gabriel Saez) set a slow pace and held second in the Louisiana and has finally been able to string a few strong races together. The 4-year-old son of Oxbow has flashed plenty of brilliance throughout his career for trainer Joe Sharp but has had trouble backing it up. Blackberry Wine romped in an optional-claimer here in December prior to the strong run in the Louisiana, which signals he could be poised for another strong effort in a race without a lot of early speed. He is cross-entered in the Fair Grounds on turf (race 11).

Completing the Mineshaft field from the rail out: the Estate of James Coleman Jr.'s Chess Chief (post 3 at 8-1 with James Graham), who won an optional-claimer here December 18 for trainer Dallas Stewart; Al Rashid Stables' Dinar (post 5 at 15-1 with Shaun Bridgmohan), third in the Tenacious for trainer Cherie DeVaux; and Courtlandt Farms' Sonneman (post 6 at 8-1 with Joe Talamo), second in the Tenacious and fourth in the Louisiana for trainer Steve Asmussen.

First post for Saturday's 13-race “Louisiana Derby Preview Day” card will be at noon CT.

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: A Rapid River In The Smarty Jones

Oaklawn opened its 2021 meeting last Friday, Jan. 22, with Caddo River taking the day's feature race, the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes for 3-year-olds, the only Kentucky Derby qualifying points race of the last week.

Caddo River serves notice with a 10 1/4-length victory in the Smarty Jones

The Smarty Jones, worth 17 points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1) is the first of four Derby points races at the Hot Sports, Ark., track. Next up will be the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (17 points) on Feb. 15, followed by the G2 Rebel (85 points) on March 13 and the G1 Arkansas Derby (170 points) on April 10 – three weeks before the May 1 Kentucky Derby.

Inaugurated in 2008, the Smarty Jones has yet to produce a classic winner, though Will Take Charge kicked off his Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old season with a victory in the 2013 Smarty Jones for Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas. Though he was unsuccessful while running in all three Triple Crown races, Will Take Charge won the G2 Rebel, G1 Travers, G2 Pennsylvania Derby, G1 Clark and was beaten a nose by Mucho Macho Man in the G1 Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita.

While the Smarty Jones was the only points race, there were two very impressive maiden performances worth chronicling on Saturday, Jan. 23.

The first may have gotten lost on the Pegasus World Cup card from Gulfstream Park. Prevalence, a Godolphin homebred by Medaglia d'Oro trained by Brendan Walsh, absolutely destroyed a 12-horse maiden field going seven furlongs. Breaking half a step slow from the six post under Tyler Gaffalione at 7.80-1 odds, Prevalence worked his way toward the front along the rail after an opening quarter mile in :22.66. He was in front after a half in :46.09 and then left his rivals in the dust, pulling away under mild encouragement to win by 8 ½ lengths while completely geared down in the final yards. Six-furlong split was 1:10.45 with the seven furlongs timed in 1:23.00. He was given a Beyer Speed Figure of 89.

Prevalence was an impressive winner in his debut at Gulfstream Park on Pegasus World Cup day

Prevalence was one of eight first-time starters in the race, so it's hard to gauge the quality of the field he was beating. I have a sneaking suspicion several of those who chased Prevalence will graduate soon as the field included a John Gunther homebred trained by Chad Brown (runner-up Stage Raider), a $1,050,000 Curlin yearling trained by Todd Pletcher (Ghazaaly, who finished third), and horses carrying silks of high-end stables like W.S. Farish, WinStar Farm/CHC Inc., and Lothenbach Stables, among others.

Walsh told Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch he might look for an allowance race or consider the G2 Fountain of Youth (an 85-point Derby points test) on Feb. 27 for Prevalence's next start.

Pedigree note: Prevalence was produced from the Ghostzapper mare Enrichment, whose Arch colt Estihdaaf won the G3 UAE Two Thousand Guineas at a mile in 2019. Enrichment was produced from the Seeking the Gold mare Sahara Gold, a daughter of the Storm Cat mare Desert Stormer, who beat males in the 1995 Breeders' Cup Sprint.

The other impressive maiden winner on Saturday was The Great One, a Nyquist colt who romped to a 14-length win at Santa Anita in a mile maiden race that ran with only four starters, including 11-10 favorite debut runner Fenway (a $650,000 yearling purchase by Into Mischief) from the Bob Baffert barn. The Great One is trained by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Doug O'Neill and is owned in part by Erik Johnson, a defenseman for the Colorado Avalanche of the NHL (thus the name The Great One, a reflection of hockey legend Wayne Gretzky's nickname, fitting for a son of a horse named for another hockey star Gustav Nyquist).

The Great One, by Nyquist, drawing off by 14 lengths under Abel Cedillo

The Great One was coming off a nose defeat to Baffert-trained Spielberg in the G2 Los Alamitos Futurity on Dec. 19 – his fourth start. Two starts earlier in a mile main track maiden race at Del Mar, The Great One finished fourth, beaten 13 lengths by Spielberg. So I think we can establish that The Great One is improving.

Unlike the Los Al Futurity, where The Great One raced on the lead throughout and was nailed in a head-bobber, he rated just off Fenway's right flank through fractions of :22.91 and :45.76, then took command after three-quarters in 1:10.67. He went seven furlongs in 1:23.69 and under energetic handling by Abel Cedillo for most of the stretch run stopped the clock for a mile in 1:37.28 – a final quarter mile in 26.61 seconds after fast early fractions.

The Great One received a 92 Beyer Speed Figure, compared to an 81 for his Los Al Futurity.

O'Neill said the G2 San Felipe (85 qualifying points) on March 6 is the logical next step for The Great One.

If I had to pick between these two maiden winners, I'd go with Prevalence, simply because I see more upside.

Now a look at the Smarty Jones Stakes. My grading system (A to F) is entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of fields.

Jan. 22: Smarty Jones Stakes, one mile, Oaklawn

Much was expected of Brad Cox-trained Caddo River, the 3-5 Smarty Jones favorite based on the Hard Spun colt's 9 ½-length maiden win when stretched out to a one-turn mile for his third start at Churchill Downs last Nov. 15. He finished second in two previous seven-furlong sprints at Saratoga in September and Belmont in October.

He did not disappoint, winning by 10 1/4 lengths.

With Florent Geroux in the saddle, Caddo River went straight to the front and basically tow-roped the seven-horse field once around the Oaklawn oval to the finish line at the sixteenth pole in the “short stretch” configuration for one-mile races at Oaklawn. Each of his quarter miles went progressively slower than the previous one: :23.12, :24.04, :25.26 and :25.77. That's about the only flaw (if you could call in that) I could see in the performance, which was very professional and rated a 92 Beyer Speed Figure.

There were three multiple winners in the lineup, plus the Steve Asmussen-trained Cowan, a two-time stakes runner-up, including the G2 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. I don't see a big upward arc for any of those who came in Caddo River's wake, so the level of competition knocks down his grade a bit.

Hard Spun (like Prevalence's sire Medaglia d'Oro and The Great One's sire Nyquist) stands at Darley at Jonabell Farm. While his lone G1 victory came sprinting seven furlongs in the King's Bishop (now the H. Allen Jerkens), the son of Danzig finished second to Street Sense in the Kentucky Derby and second to Curlin in the Breeders' Cup Classic at four in 2007. His offspring have proven to be solid around two turns as well.

Caddo River, bred by and racing for John Ed Anthony's Shortleaf Stable, is the firest foal from the Congrats mare Pangburn, a stakes winner for Shortleaf purchased for $130,000 at the 2013 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky July Yearling Sale.

Anthony is no stranger to the Triple Crown trail, having won the 1980 Belmont Stakes with Temperence Hill and back-to-back Preakness Stakes in 1992-'93 with Pine Bluff and Prairie Bayou, respectively. He's won Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes four times and the Arkansas Derby on three occasions. Like so many of his previous runners, Caddo River is named after a landmark in Anthony's home state of Arkansas. We're going to hear a lot more about this horse.

Grade: B

This Saturday we'll have two Kentucky Derby points races, the G3 Holy Bull from Gulfstream Park and the G3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes from Santa Anita

Previously: Jan. 18 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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Gulfstream: Spectacular Debut By Prevalance, Rainbow 6 Mandatory Payout On Sunday

Godolphin LLC's Prevalence produced a spectacular debut on Saturday' Pegasus Day program, scoring by 8 ½ lengths under a motionless Tayler Gaffalione in a seven-furlong maiden special weight race.

The 3-year-old son of Medaglia d'Oro ($17.60) slipped through along the rail to take the lead midway along the backstretch, shook off an outside challenge by Stage Raider, a half-brother to 2018 Triple Crown champion Justify, and kicked away to a thoroughly dominating victory.

“I thought he was a nice colt. He put in some nice work, but of course, you're always looking for confirmation. Thankfully, we got it,” trainer Brendan Walsh said. “It was a lovely experience, which is great for a young 3-year-old first time out.”

The homebred colt ran seven furlongs in 1:23 in the Race 6 sprint. John Gunther's Stage Raider finished second in his debut, a half-length ahead of Ghazaaly, a debuting son of Curlin for Shadwell Stable.

Walsh and Gaffalione came right back to team for a victory with Zofelle ($7.60) in the $125,000 Marshua's River (G3), the second of seven graded stakes on Saturday's card that was coheadlined by the $3 million Pegasus World Cup Invitational (G1) and the $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational (G1).

Mandatory Rainbow 6 Payout Set for Sunday's Program
A mandatory payout of the 20-cent Rainbow 6 jackpot pool is set for Sunday's program at Gulfstream Park.

The popular multi-race wager went unsolved Saturday, three days after a lucky bettor broke the jackpot for $636,311 on Wednesday. Multiple tickets with all six winners were each worth $2,149.12 Saturday, producing a jackpot pool of $266,566.95 heading into Sunday's card

The jackpot pool is usually only paid out when there is a single unique ticket sold with all six winners. On days when there is no unique ticket, 70 percent of that day's pool goes back to those bettors holding tickets with the most winners, while 30 percent is carried over to the jackpot pool. However, on mandatory payout days the whole pool is paid out to the bettor or bettors holding tickets with the most winners in the six-race sequence.

Sunday's Rainbow 6 sequence will span Races 6-11, featuring a field of royally bred 3-year-old fillies in Race 8, a mile maiden special weight race on turf. Chad Brown-trained Richebourg, a daughter of Curlin who was bought at auction for $800,000; Kenny McPeek-trained Salit, a daughter of American Pharoah; Christophe Clement-trained Brina, a daughter of Zoffany, and Phenomenal Woman, a daughter of Mucho Macho Man; and Brian Lynch-trained Scarlett Lace, a daughter of Medaglia d'Oro; are slated to make their respective debuts.

WHO'S HOT: Tyler Gaffalione rode four winner's on Saturday's card at Gulfstream After scoring a natural hat trick aboard Olympic Runner ($11.80) in Race 5, Prevalence ($17.60) in Race 6 and Zofelle ($7.60) in the Marshua's River (G3) in Race 7, Gaffalione came back to ride Tide of the Sea ($10) to victory in the $150,000 W. L. McKnight (G3) in Race 10.

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