Breeders' Cup | Horse Racing Free Tips

Breeders’ Cup Classic Notes: Epicenter ‘Has Continued To Flourish’ Since Travers Win

Epicenter – Winchell Thoroughbred's Epicenter returned to the track to gallop 1 ½ miles Tuesday for the first time since completing his major preparations for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) Sunday with a four-furlong work in 50 4/5.

Trainer Steve Asmussen said he's had a high level of confidence in the 3-year-old Not This Time colt since right before the Travers Stakes, and that that feeling has only continued to grow watching him train at Keeneland.

The Hall of Famer said: “With Epicenter being the favorite in the Derby and going through that, being second there and second in the Preakness. You know, obviously you're extremely high on him and your hopes are good, but I think we have reached a new level of confidence with Epicenter. Me personally, just looking at him before the Travers. I have always been impressed with him and love the athlete that he is and the races that he's run. But I remember schooling him the week of the Travers. He was just a picture of strength and athleticism that gave me a new level of confidence in him. And, he has continued to flourish. I think he's just simply older. I mean, he's just more mature him coming in here. Off the break, the Derby preps to the Triple Crown races in two runs in Saratoga. He's got the foundation in him.”

Epicenter will follow a similar training schedule the rest of the week.

Flightline – Hronis Racing, Summer Wind Equine, West Point Thoroughbreds, Siena Farm and Woodford Racing's Flightline galloped 1 1/2 miles shortly after the track opened for training at 6 o'clock with Juan Leyva aboard for trainer John Sadler.

Undefeated in five starts, Flightline drew post position four for Saturday's Classic and is the 3-5 morning line favorite.

Sadler was in a similar spot at Churchill Downs in 2018 for the Classic with the favorite in Accelerate for Hronis Racing. Accelerate had compiled a 6-5-1-0 record that included four Grade 1 victories coming into the Classic, a race he won by a length to clinch an Eclipse Award as Champion Older Dirt Male.

“The vibe is definitely different this year, but it is the kind of vibe you want,” said Sadler, who was asked if he was feeling any pressure coming into the race. “Nope. I think the pressure is on the other guys.”

Sadler added that Flightline would be schooling in the Paddock at 11 a.m. on Wednesday and Thursday.

November 1, 2022: Flightline, trained by John W. Sadler, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 1, 2022. John Voorhees/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup

Happy Saver/Life Is Good – With their final workouts behind them, Happy Saver, Life Is Good and trainer Todd Pletcher's other Saturday entrants had routine gallops. The group is expected to add standing in the starting gate to Wednesday's exercise. Wertheimer and Frere's homebred Happy Saver drew post three for the Classic while WinStar Farm and CHC Inc.'s Life Is Good will leave from post two.

“We are happy with the draw,” Pletcher said. “I don't think post is too important going a mile and a quarter. (There is) plenty of time to get position and play things off the break.”

October 31, 2022: Life Is Good, trained by Todd A. Pletcher, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on October 31, 2022. Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup

Hot Rod Charlie – Trainer Doug O'Neill sent his Longines Classic contender Hot Rod Charlie out for an “energetic” 1 1/8-mile gallop Tuesday morning at Keeneland. Owned by Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, Gainesway Stable, and Strauss Bros Racing, Hot Rod Charlie has been training at Keeneland since late June preparing for the Breeders' Cup.

“With the Breeders' Cup being here it seemed like it would be an asset (to have him in training at Keeneland),” O'Neill said. “I'm really happy with the way he looks weight-wise and energy-wise. He's a happy horse right now.”

The 4-year-old colt was piloted by exercise rider Connor Murray over a fast track. He will be breaking from post five on Saturday under Tyler Gaffalione with morning line odds of 15-1.

November 1, 2022: Hot Rod Charlie, trained by Doug F. O'Neill, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 1, 2022. John Voorhees/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup

Olympiad – Bill Mott-trained Olympiad drew post six of eight in Saturday's Longines Breeders' Cup Classic, seeking his second consecutive G1 over 1¼ miles – the same distance over which he had an easy gallop at 6:45 a.m. on Tuesday. Neil Poznansky was aboard for the routine leg-stretcher.

“He's very good and a very honest, talented horse,” Mott said. “Physically, he's a beautiful horse who's well-balanced and he's done everything right since we got him as a 2-year-old. We had some issues with him as an early 3-year-old, but we got him back to the races later in his 3-year-old year and that's carried on right through this year. We're now nearing the end of the year and we've made it to the Breeders' Cup. He's here in with the best horses in the world, as far as I'm concerned, and we're going to see how we stack up. He's a good horse and it's an interesting race loaded with talent and a number of horses who are going to be competitive in there.”

Mott seeks his third Classic, following Cigar (1995) and Drosselmeyer (2011).

“The year Drosselmeyer won, we had a horse called To Honor And Serve who was quite exciting and it worked out to be a matter of the trip (distance); who got the mile and a quarter,” he said. “To Honor And Serve was right there turning for home with Uncle Mo and Havre de Grace and they were battling it out to the eighth pole, and here Drosselmeyer came down the center of the track. The 10 furlongs is a game-changer for a lot of horses.”

October 31, 2022: Olympiad, trained by William I. Mott, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on October 31, 2022. Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup

Rich Strike – RED TR Racing's Rich Strike galloped 1 1/4 miles under exercise rider Dallas King shortly after the main track opened at 6 o'clock.

“He relaxed early and was strong at the end,” trainer Eric Reed said of the Kentucky Derby winner, who drew post eight for the Classic. “The two and an eighth miles he did yesterday settled him down a bit.”

A little more than a year ago, Rich Strike had run his first race for Reed after being claimed for $30,000 out of a maiden victory at Churchill Downs. In his debut for Reed, Rich Strike had finished third going a mile in an allowance optional claiming test at Keeneland.

“Did I think I had a horse for the Classic? That would be a big NO in capital letters,” Reed said. “I just wanted him to be good enough to try for the (Kentucky) Derby.”

October 30, 2022: Rich Strike, trained by Eric R. Reed and entered in the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic, exercises at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on October 30, 2022. John Voorhees/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup

Taiba – In a decidedly different scenario from most years, trainer Bob Baffert's accomplished 3-year-old colt Taiba isn't likely to be among the betting favorites in the $6 million Classic.

Although Baffert is the leading money winner in Breeders' Cup history, has won the Classic a record four times and the Zedan Racing Stables colt has two Grade 1 wins on his resume, Taiba could go off as the fourth or fifth choice in the wagering in the eight-horse field. Unbeaten Flightline and Life Is Good are the highest-profile horses in what is a very strong field. Taiba, who will start from the rail under Hall of Famer Mike Smith, is listed at 8-1 on the morning line.

Taiba, a $1.7 million yearling purchase, did not race at 2. He opened his career with a decisive maiden score in March and followed with a victory in the Santa Anita Derby. His unbeaten status ended with a 12th-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. After a short break from competition, he was second by a head in the Haskell and won the Pennsylvania Derby. Taiba shipped from California with his Baffert stablemates Sunday, jogged Monday and galloped Tuesday morning.

“He's a 3-year-old that was sort of thrown into the deep end right away,” Baffert said. “He's recovered from that and ran a respectful race in the Haskell, then came back and won the Penn Derby. I think he's a horse that's just going to get better. He reminds me a lot of his sire. Gun Runner got better as he got older.”

Flightline has smoked the competition in his five starts, winning by an average 12.5 lengths. Life Is Good, who Baffert trained early in his career, has a 9-1-0 record, four of them in Grade 1 races, in 11 career starts.

“It's a tall order,” Baffert said. “You got these two brilliant horses, Flightline and Life Is Good. And they are 4-year-olds. If they were 3-year-olds it would be different. But they are 4-year-olds, so they're at their max right now. I've never won it with a 4-year-old. I've won it with 3-year-olds and because they were so good they were retired.”

Baffert's Classic winners are: Bayern (2014); American Pharoah (2015), Arrogate (2016) and Authentic (2020). American Pharoah and Authentic won the Classic in the first two times that Keeneland played host to the Breeders' Cup. American Pharoah's victory made him racing's first “Grand Slam” winner, sweeping the Triple Crown races and the Classic.

November 1, 2022: Taiba, trained by Bob Baffert, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 1, 2022. John Voorhees/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup

The post Breeders’ Cup Classic Notes: Epicenter ‘Has Continued To Flourish’ Since Travers Win appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Repole’s Dream Season Rolls Into Breeders’ Cup Weekend

LEXINGTON, KY – Mike Repole is heading into Breeders' Cup weekend with 'Uncle Mo' on his side.

After fulfilling a lifelong dream by running one-two in the GI Belmont S. with the recently retired and Spendthrift-bound Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) and Nest (Curlin)–one of Repole's seven Grade I victories on the year–the momentum has continued to build for the native New Yorker's stable ahead of this year's Championships at Keeneland.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte (Violence) and Chocolate Gelato (Practical Joke), two of the bigger names on the 'Future Stars Friday' card, will line up in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies, respectively. The aforementioned Nest will look to put an exclamation point on her brilliant 3-year-old campaign against an all-star cast of older fillies and mares in Saturday's GI Breeders' Cup Distaff. All three are trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher.

“This has been an amazing year,” Repole said. “It's one thing to win the Belmont. But in all my biggest dreams, I never envisioned them coming down the stretch with the blue-and-orange silks in first and second. We won seven Grade I's this year, which is insane, with the incredible team that we've put together of Ed Rosen, Jim Martin, Jake West, Danielle Bricker, and, of course, Todd Pletcher, who has the most pressure.

“Having horses like Chocolate Gelato, Forte and Nest, I have to scratch my head every day,” Repole added.

It's been 12 years now since Repole Stable's flagship runner turned Coolmore leading sire Uncle Mo concluded his championship season with authority in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs.

“I think Uncle Mo not only was the perfect name for that horse (Editor's Note: Uncle Mo is a popular sports expression used to describe when a team or player gets on a roll), but I really think that he's been the perfect name for the stable,” Repole said. “From Uncle Mo, you get Mo Donegal. You get horses like that. At the end of the day, he's gonna be the patriarch of the stable.”

Stars in the Making…

Forte is likely to go off as the second choice in the Juvenile behind the unbeaten Bob Baffert-trained MGISW and 'Rising Star' Cave Rock (Arrogate). Looking to be any kind with a blowout debut win at Belmont Park, Forte has more than made up for an off-the-board finish as the favorite in Saratoga's GIII Sanford S. with a pair of subsequent wins at the highest level.

After splashing home first by three lengths in a saturated renewal of the GI Hopeful S. with next-out GI Champagne S. winner 'Rising Star' Blazing Sevens (Good Magic) back in third, Forte passed his two-turn test in style with a hard-fought neck decision after making a powerful, sweeping move on the far turn over the Juvenile track and trip in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity.

Bred in Kentucky by South Gate Farm and co-owned with Vinnie Viola's St. Elias Stable, Forte is one of six Grade I winners for Violence. The $80,000 Keeneland November weanling and $110,000 Keeneland September yearling hails from the extended female family of champion 2-year-old filly Folklore (Tiznow).

“We went out there for the Futurity with the number one goal to prepare this horse for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile,” Repole said. “We wanted to get a race over the track and for him to be stabled at Keeneland. The way he did it was incredibly impressive. He's getting better and better.”

Repole continued, “We have that West Coast Baffert horse to beat. We know we can sit behind horses and we'll see what happens. You never know, you got to show up, right?”

Chocolate Gelato, winner of the GI Frizette S., has been installed as the 7-2 morning-line favorite in a full field of 14 for the Juvenile Fillies. “I think it's a wide-open race,” Repole said.

A disappointing third on debut as the heavy favorite on opening day at Saratoga, Chocolate Gelato ran to those lofty expectations next time out, airing in front-running fashion with a career-best 92 Beyer a month later at the Spa. The $165,000 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky yearling and $475,000 Fasig-Tipton Florida 2-year-old showed a different dimension over a sloppy track going a one-turn mile in the Frizette, rallying through traffic from fifth with a blitz on the far turn en route to a professional-looking one-length victory.

She will seek to become the ninth filly to pull off the Frizette/Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies double. Bred in Kentucky by Vince Colbert, Chocolate Gelato's deep female family includes GISWs Imagining, Rhythm, Girolamo and Super Saver. She makes her two-turn debut in the Juvenile Fillies.

“She sat behind horses, got mud in her face and she fought down the stretch,” Repole said of Chocolate Gelato's Frizette win. “She's on the backstretch sitting in fourth or fifth on the inside and I said to everyone around me, 'If this is a good horse, she's gonna win this race because this is a really tough spot.' She was 8-5, but at that point, if there were live odds, I would've made her 6-1. Irad [Ortiz, Jr.] said she came through willingly and the rest is history.”

That Top 1% of 1%…

It's been a season to remember for the division-leading Nest, led by a trio of jaw-dropping Grade I victories against her peers in Keeneland's GI Central Bank Ashland S. and Saratoga's GI Coaching Club American Oaks and GI Alabama S. Also a solid second as the favorite in the GI Kentucky Oaks, the $350,000 Keeneland September graduate ran terrific in defeat once again after stumbling at the start against the boys in the final leg of the Triple Crown. The Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House colorbearer punched her ticket to Lexington with an effortless 9 3/4-length win while taking on older fillies and mares for the first time in the GII Beldame S. at Aqueduct.

“I've been so blessed to have Grade I, special horses,” Repole said. “The only horse I've owned that I can even remotely at this time compare her to is Uncle Mo. Uncle Mo had the brilliance of that top 1% of 1%. Nest has that. She's a once-in-a-lifetime filly and she's coming back next year. She's just getting better.”

Nest may be favored in a Distaff field for the ages that also includes her champion 'Rising Star' stablemate Malathaat (Curlin), MGISW Clairiere (Curlin) and GI Kentucky Oaks heroine Secret Oath (Arrogate).

“I dreamed of watching races like this as a kid,” Repole said. “Forget that she's potentially the favorite. It's an honor and a blessing just to be in a race like this.”

Bred in Kentucky by Ashview Farm and Colts Neck Stables–also the breeders of Mo Donegal–Nest is one of 19 top-level winners for the mighty Curlin. Her full brother GI Santa Anita H. winner Idol (Curlin), campaigned by Calvin Nguyen, will begin his career at stud as a Repole Stable/Taylor Made Stallions Venture in 2023. Their 2-year-old stakes-winning half-brother Lost Ark (Violence), a troubled sixth in the Breeders' Futurity, is entered in the Juvenile.

“I've been following Idol's career since the day we purchased Nest as a yearling,” Repole said. “A few weeks after we bought Nest, Idol broke his maiden and showed incredible talent. It was very exciting when he won a Grade I in California. Now with Nest and Idol both being Grade I winners, I'm excited about both of their future potentials–Idol as a stallion, and Nest, one day in the future, as a broodmare.”

Strength in Numbers…

Smart money says that you're going to be seeing a lot more of Repole in the coming years at the Championships. The co-founder of Glaceau Vitaminwater (sold to Coca-Cola for a reported $4.1 billion in 2007) and the sports drink BodyArmor (which also sold to Coca-Cola for $5.6 billion in 2021) and Viola's St. Elias Stables led all buyers for the second straight year at the Keeneland September sale, purchasing 31 yearlings in partnership for $12.84 million ($414,194 average).

In addition to Forte, Repole and St. Elias, of course, teamed up to campaign 2019 GI Breeders' Cup Classic winner and champion older dirt male Vino Rosso (Curlin), himself a $410,000 KEESEP graduate. Now standing at Spendthrift Farm, Vino Rosso was represented by a first-crop filly that brought $550,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale.

“It's been a good run, so I stepped it up a little bit,” Repole said. “I thought I was being too cheap, so I decided to spend a little bit more money last year and this year. I say I do this with 5% of my time. I think I'm gonna increase it to 10%, so let's see what happens.”

With an emphasis on creating stallions, Repole, either alone or in partnership, purchased a total of 70 yearlings at Keeneland September for a total of $26.67 million. Some of Repole's other high-profile partners include: Coolmore, Eclipse, West Point, Spendthrift and Gainesway.

“At first, I was really against partnerships,” Repole said. “I kinda wanted to call the shots. But at the end of the day, you know what? Number one, it builds relationships and partnerships that are very important to me. And number two, would you rather own 50% of 100 horses? Or 50 horses at 100%. I'd rather double my chances, or in certain ways, triple my chances.

“What I'm most proud of with the seven Grade I wins this year is that you've got my partnership with Eclipse with Nest, Forte with my friend Vinnie Viola, Mo Donegal with Donegal Racing and Chocolate Gelato, who is 100% Repole. It's pretty cool to have those four horses, own 50% or more on all of them and have all these different partners.

Repole concluded, “We want to win, we want to have fun and we want to share success. Those are the goals of the stable.”

The post Repole’s Dream Season Rolls Into Breeders’ Cup Weekend appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Breeders’ Cup Buzz: Preparing For The Handicapping Challenge

Preparing for the Breeders' Cup world championships can be an exciting but also intimidating, almost overwhelming process for horseplayers. There are 14 races, most of them with full fields, with horses coming from all over the world to compete on a racetrack that many of the competitors have never raced over previously.

On top of that, there is a “kid in a candy store” wagering menu that offers so many opportunities for players who prefer horizontal, multi-race bets (rolling Daily Doubles and Pick 3, All Turf Pick 3, All Turf Pick 4, Special Daily Doubles). Vertical players won't feel left out, either, with Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta, Super High 5 wagers that promise boxcar payoffs. And of course there is win, place and show wagering.

There are multiple past performance and data options that can help a player sort through each race, and replays are readily available on advance-deposit wagering platforms and Youtube for those who bring “trip handicapping” into their decision-making process.

We spoke with three high-end handicappers – two well-known television analysts and the winner of the 2021 Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) at Del Mar – about how they approach this exciting and potentially lucrative two days of racing and gambling.

Matthew Miller, BCBC Champion

2021 BCBC winner Matthew Miller (second from left) with Del Mar's Chris Bahr, tournament coordinator John Reynolds and BCBC tournament director Tim Schram

Miller won the 2021 Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) at Del Mar, clinching the title with a $33,000 win bet on Knicks Go in the Classic. That earned him a grand total of $543,300, including the first-place prize of $400,500. A Chicago attorney who first played in the BCBC in 2017, Miller will be making his first visit to Keeneland for this year's Breeders' Cup and a defense of his BCBC title.

“My preparation for the Breeders' Cup is unlike my preparation for a normal day playing the races or even a different tournament. While I remain steadfast in my use of a pen-and-paper approach with standard Daily Racing Form past performances and try to stay away from the other sources of data that I think get relied upon by other players a bit too heavily, I do less of my own handicapping for the Breeders' Cup than I do on other days.

“Instead, I focus on two things. First, I have a few sources for information that I believe are absolutely terrific – Pete Fornatale and the In The Money Network have provided me with entertainment and information for years, and I have them to thank for some really helpful advice in this very tournament in the past.

“The HHH Racing Podcast hosted by my friend Howard Kravets is my other go-to source. The content and presentation style are very digestible (it helps that he is a high school math teacher)! I essentially form my own opinions and value lines to match (i.e., what I think the odds should be) and then make adjustments based on what I hear from the Professor's careful analysis of race replays. The second thing I do is look hard at the sequence of races to pick “my spots,” which often has a lot more to do with game theory and tournament strategy than handicapping.

“I look at my plays in two ways – the minimums and the bigger shots I want to take. For the minimums, I try to look for ways to pair a non-key race with a key race by using a minimum ($600) daily double. Then when I get to my key race, I hit it hard. One doesn't have to be right very often to do well in this tournament (other than the last race), but when one is right, one really needs to get paid.

“In terms of how I pick those spots, I try to synthesize a massive amount of information into the most simple risk/reward decisions I can make. I try to keep my plays efficient and focused, and I look for races that give me an opportunity to do that without having to get too fancy. It's hard enough picking winners in these races – I'd rather focus on that than nailing a thin exacta or trifecta partial wheel.

“In this tournament, I truly believe the whole trick is to build one's bankroll to a certain level (not difficult to figure out looking at past results), and I take it as a given that the final piece to the puzzle will be put in place with the Classic. I try not to fall in love with any particular horse or race, but instead to look for value (which doesn't necessarily equate to longshots) and pound away. If I see a path to building that bankroll in a few reasonable steps, I proceed with confidence and execute on that plan. The only real decision-making after that is to make sure that I'm getting the right prices per my own value line and that I'm paying enough attention to the leaderboard late in the tournament so that I can make adjustments if needed.

“Last year, I picked Knicks Go because I thought he would win the race and I set a strategic course for myself that allowed me to bet the amount on him that I thought be required to win the tournament. I suppose it was a good pick given that he wasn't the favorite, but I don't think he was a very difficult horse to land on. What is perhaps more interesting than that pick is what I did to set that up.

“The target bankroll I wanted going into the Classic was $33,000. (Editor's note: BCBC players begin with a $7,500 bankroll.) I entered day two with a balance in the range of $24,000. I'm sure that 100 people would have given me 100 answers to the question of how to most efficiently accomplish that. On an ordinary day of playing the races, that's a sizable jump for any of us to make, and I think most of us would try to do that incrementally with a few good picks. But with a tournament mindset, my view was that Life is Good at 3-5 was as close to a lock as I would find all day, and a simple all-in win bet would be enough to get me where I needed with a little extra to take a small shot on something else to boot (which failed). I figured taking one shot in that race gave me a much better chance of succeeding than catching multiple horses in multiple races. It sounds so simple now, but admittedly it isn't easy to walk up to a betting terminal and punch in $24k of win bets. That was good practice for doing $33,000 a few hours later!!”

Todd Schrupp, FanDuel TV/TVG

TVG/FanDuel TV host and analyst Todd Schrupp remembers watching his first Breeders' Cup in 1987 as a student at Buena Vista College in Storm Lake, Iowa. Highlight of the day was Ferdinand and Alysheba in the Classic, with Schrupp recalling Tom Durkin's famous race call, “The two Derby winners hit the wire together.” “That's still one of the greatest Classics,” Schrupp said. “That was my introduction to how great the Breeders' Cup can be and I've been a fan of the event ever since.”

“My job is busy daily, especially when we are out at the racetrack. But for Breeders' Cup it's as busy as it can possibly be because we are doing several shows. We are doing the FanDuel show, and then we are doing the Breeders' Cup Players Show, which goes to an international audience, and those are different sets. This year we are doing a social media show on Twitter, and so I'm rotating throughout the day and get very few breaks.

“I've never really had a chance to express this, but that is one of the main reasons I'm a horizontal player. When I sit down, I'd rather have my Pick 5 in and then I can follow it as it goes. I don't want to figure out my trifecta or superfecta while taking a short break or while we're away for a commercial break.

“So I'm primarily a horizontal player. One, because I really do like those wagers, but it's also because of my job. I get very busy throughout the day, so I like to have something I can follow race to race to race. There's nothing more disappointing than getting knocked out in the first race, because then I've got a long work day ahead of me.

“I have an inherent advantage because I'm working on shows that are helping players get prepared for the Breeders' Cup. In my opinion, there's no better show than “Breakfast at the Breeders' Cup” (7 a.m. daily on FanDuel TV/TVG). It's not just the workouts that you see. I still believe those are just a snapshot in time, it's just one work. Maybe a horse has an off day that day and then goes on to win a Breeders' Cup race. It's the discussions we have about the horses and how they come to that race, how they qualified for the Breeders' Cup, the strength of the part of the country that they came out of, the strength of the European shippers. To me, “Breakfast at the Breeders' Cup” is three hours every day of preparation for the races. We start it about 10 days out, so it's 30 hours of preparation.

“For me, by the time we get to decision day on Friday and Saturday, I feel that from a handicapping point of view, I've got a great grasp of where I want to be. The biggest issue for me, and I've always said this, I honestly believe the game is 20 percent handicapping. Everybody picks winners, no matter how you approach it. It's really about how you wager. It's 20 percent handicapping, 80 percent ticket structure. Most of my time after we're done with Breakfast at the Breeders' Cup and I kind of know where I want to go in each race, is putting my ticket structures together, and I'll spend a lot of time on Thursday night for Friday and then Friday night for Saturday.

“There are so many opportunities at the Breeders' Cup that you just have to budget yourself. It sounds like simplistic advice, but it's true. One of the first things I heard from a seasoned horseplayer when I was just getting in the game was, 'If it hurts for more than 30 seconds, you bet too much.' Every race is playable at the Breeders' Cup, so at the end of the day you have to make decisions. You're not going to sweep all 14 championship races, not to mention the races on the undercard. You have to look at your prime opportunities and you have to have a game plan.

“Putting my situation aside where I'm locked in on a desk and working that day, a horse player at the track, a horseplayer playing at home, they have an opportunity to bet every single race. You really have to step aside and say, 'What is going to be my plan today?' And you really have to budget it according to what you can handle, because every race looks playable at the Breeders' Cup.

“I love the Pick 5s, I love the value that they bring. But if you're a superfecta player, it's a fantastic day. One thing I have to get a handle on and I say this on a daily basis, is the win pool. There's so many great win betting opportunities at the Breeders' Cup. You might get 10-1 on a potential Eclipse Award winner because the field is so deep.”

Andy Serling, NYRA/Fox Sports

Racing analyst for the New York Racing Association and part of the “America's Day at the Races” broadcast team on Fox Sports, Serling is a longtime horseplayer who said he's had a great deal of success betting the Breeders' Cup “except when it's at Keeneland.” Serling produces videos analyzing each championship race that can be found on the New York Racing Association Youtube page, calling the videos a “labor of love.”

“I do the same thing for these races that I do for any card. Stakes races are usually less work because I'm familiar with the horses. I'll print the past performances, I use DRF Formulator for certain things that I want to look up, and I'll watch a lot of replays, especially out of town races.

“The most work I do is on the Euros. I go to the Racing Post website, which I use a little like Formulator. You can go in and look at the horses they ran against, take a good look at those horses. I watch a lot of replays of Europeans, because they pretty much are all available on YouTube or through NYRA Bets.

“I try to get a feel for the races and try to get to a point where I'm comfortable enough that when they draw post positions I have a good idea. I look at TimeformUS., their pace projections and their figs. So when they draw the races on Monday, I feel like at that point I'm 15-20 minutes per race away from having an opinion. I'll put out picks, a top four for every race. It's a fairly arduous project.

“I don't bet the Breeders' Cup significantly differently than any other day. If I don't like a race I'm not going to bet it, other than a few dollars for fun. If I have eight opinions I'll bet eight of the races; if I have three opinions I'll bet three.

“With Europeans, I look for horses that are being pointed for the Breeders' Cup by sharp trainers, not these horses that are more of an afterthought, especially the non-2-year-olds. I look for horses where I think their connections were really thinking about the Breeders' Cup, the Group 2 or Group 3 type horses, not the best horses who came to the Breeders' Cup as an afterthought. I've found that over the years you get some prices for situations like that. Talismanic (14-1 winner of the 2017 Turf) is a good example.”

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Open Letter to the Industry: Entering the Final Turn

by Tom Rooney

The Thoroughbred breeding and racing world is descending on central Kentucky this week. The excitement is palpable, Lexington is abuzz, and anticipation is building each day as we get closer to this weekend's Breeders' Cup World Championships at Keeneland. And while this event will begin the wind down to the 2022 racing calendar, I am reflecting on my first year as President and CEO of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA). While I've been a Thoroughbred enthusiast my entire life, this is the first year where I've lived, ate, and breathed Thoroughbred breeding and racing like the so many other stakeholders, customers, and fans. The year has been filled with great racing, record sales, incredible enthusiasm, and strong handle and on-track attendance. These and other metrics make me more excited than ever to see what the future holds for the Thoroughbred industry.

This year was a strong one for racing. Coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic where many of the biggest races were run without fans or in limited numbers, this year's Kentucky Derby welcomed nearly 150,000 people to Churchill Downs on Derby Day alone and delivered an almost unfathomable fairytale ending. Attendance and handle figures at racing's premier meets were as strong as they've ever been. Prize money is also up significantly, more than 10% higher than where we were at this point last year. Like in all aspects of life after COVID, people were ready to get back to the racetrack, or at least they were ready to get back to enjoying their favorite horse betting app.

We have also had a tremendous year in the sales ring, with records set at many sales. The OBS Spring Sale, annually the highest grossing of all 2-year-old in training sales, surpassed last year's sales record by almost $20 million. The Saratoga Select Yearling sale produced 10 seven-figure yearlings and topped its gross sales record from 2018 by more than $4 million. The Keeneland September Yearling Sale, the leading source of champions and stakes winners around the world, saw the highest gross sales in Keeneland auction history. With two sales immediately following the Breeders' Cup and based on these trends, there is every reason for optimism that sales will finish the year strong.

This year also saw a dramatic increase in sports betting, as 36 states and the District of Columbia have legalized sports wagering in some capacity in the four years since the U.S. Supreme Court's decision. The widespread acceptance and legalization of sports betting across the country is hugely exciting for horse racing. We have an opportunity to introduce our product to a whole new universe of people and a whole new generation of gamblers. With the anticipated addition of pari-mutuel wagering on horse racing to sports betting platforms with millions of account holders, I'm very bullish about the bright future we have on sports betting platforms.

And last, and most importantly, more emphasis has been put on the health, safety, and welfare, and, yes, aftercare of Thoroughbreds in 2022 than ever before. As we as an industry continue to move through the creation of greater national uniformity, we are improving America's first sport for generations to come.

In January, we'll all come together to celebrate the success of the 2022 racing year, in Palm Beach, at the 52nd Annual Eclipse Awards being held at the Breakers. Many of the horses racing at the Breeders' Cup this weekend will be contenders for the awards, and their success will determine many of this year's champions. I am excited to welcome the entire industry so we can together celebrate the best of the best. While no good thing comes without its challenges, the Thoroughbred industry is thriving, and the future is bright.

Tom Rooney is the President and CEO of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) and a former U.S. Congressman representing the people of Florida from 2009-2019.

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