Time to analyze the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile field, in post position order, in the form of Haiku; a Japanese poem of 17 syllables, in three lines of five, seven, and five.
To read previous editions of The Haiku Handicapper, click here.
#1 – Hurricane J
An ambitious jump
Has to keep up with Cave Rock
Through by the turn home
#2 – Congruent
His best Beyer fig
Would be an all-time worst for
Most in today's field
#3 – Cave Rock West Coast spectacle
Might get fractions to himself
Left alone, he airs
#4 – Forte
Gritty local win
Sets targets and catches them
Tough one to deny
#5 – Verifying
Big-time pedigree
No excuse to lose Champagne
He'd shock in this spot
#6 – Blazing Sevens
Five-wide in the slop
Couldn't deny in his prep
Should pick up pieces
#7 – Wound Up
Moves from turf to dirt
Little suggests improvement
What am I missing?
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Awake At Midnyte – With her first Breeders' Cup start quickly approaching, Reddam Racing's Awake At Midnyte continues to train well, galloping 1 1/8 miles Thursday morning at Keeneland under exercise rider Connor Murray. Trainer Doug O'Neill is sending the filly out into a star-studded Longines Distaff field on Saturday where she will be running entirely against Grade 1 winners.
“She's got a great mind,” O'Neill said. “She's a good-sized filly, but she's really quiet in the stall and really comfortable in her own skin. On the track, she trains like a good filly. She loves to exercise. She's very willing and giving so she checks all the boxes for a Grade 1-winning type of filly so we're hoping that shows up (on Saturday).”
While the 3-year-old filly is multiple graded stakes placed, she will be trying for her first graded stakes win this weekend. At morning line odds of 30-1, Awake At Midnyte will be breaking from post five under Mario Gutierrez.
November 3, 2022: Awake At Midnyte, trained by Doug F. O'Neill, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 3, 2022. John Voorhees/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Blue Stripe – Pozo De Luna's Blue Stripe visited the paddock and galloped 1 1/2 miles with jockey Hector Berrios aboard Friday morning for trainer Marcelo Polanco.
Berrios, who will be riding in his second Breeders' Cup, rode Blue Stripe for the first time in the Clement L. Hirsch, a “Win and You're In” Challenge race that earned a spot in the starting gate for Blue Stripe, a half-sister to 2019 Distaff winner Blue Prize.
“From Day One, I could see she was very special,” Berrios said. “She does everything very nicely.”
Berrios has one other Breeders' Cup mount Saturday with that coming on Super Ocho in the Qatar Racing Sprint.
Blue Stripe during morning workouts in preparation for the Longines Distaff
Clairiere/Society – Trainer Steve Asmussen sent both Clairiere and Society out for early morning gallops Thursday as they finish up their preparations for the Distaff. Both fillies have been stabled at Keeneland since the end of September with Clairiere having five works and Society having four works over the host track leading into Saturday's race.
“It's tremendous field with tremendous horses and we love having them to run in it,” Asmussen said. “With that being said, there are variables running at Keeneland. I think with the brief Spring Meet and brief Fall Meet, you just don't get a great feel for exactly where you want to be in a race all the time and get them used to it.”
Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen ponies Breeders' Cup Distaff contender Society at Keeneland
Malathaat/Nest – Shadwell Stable's Malathaat and Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House's Nest both had 1 1/2-mile gallops Friday morning and then schooled in the paddock after training hours.
Amelia Green was on Malathaat, who went out at 8 o'clock and Nest followed at 8:45 with Nora McCormack up.
The two fillies are a combined four-for-four at Keeneland with both having won the Central Bank Ashland here in the spring of their 3yo campaigns.
They never have raced against each other on the track, but with a combined 2022 record of 12-8-4-0, it seemed inevitable.
“That possibility showed up on our radar about the start of Saratoga,” trainer Todd Pletcher said.
Nest captured two Grade 1s at Saratoga and Malathaat added a third Grade 1 for the barn with a victory in the Personal Ensign.
November 3, 2022: Malathaat, trained by Todd A. Pletcher, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 3, 2022. Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Search Results – Klaravich Stables' Distaff contender Search Results had a routine gallop of about one mile on Keeneland's main track Thursday morning with trainer Chad Brown observing. She has been based at Keeneland since early October and had her fourth and final work over the surface Oct. 29, going five furlongs in 1:01 1/5. Flavien Prat rides from post seven of eight in the Distaff, in which six of her seven competitors are G1 winners.
November 3, 2022: Search Results, trained by Chad C. Brown, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 3, 2022. John Voorhees/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Secret Oath – Hall of trainer D. Wayne Lukas said Thursday that he does not think Briland Farm's Secret Oath should be 15-1 on the morning line for the Breeders' Cup Distaff and trotted out one of his favorite lines: “People have opinions, horses have the facts.”
Secret Oath is winless in four Grade 1 starts since her victory in the Kentucky Oaks May 6. She was fourth against males in the Preakness, had two well-beaten seconds to Distaff favorite Nest at Saratoga and was third in the Cotillion at Parx. Lukas said he is confident his 3-year-old daughter of Arrogate is ready to face the strong field in the Distaff.
“She's better right now,” Lukas said. “That little break we just gave her, it really helped her. I predicted that all year, that her next year will be her best year. So, the end of the fall, this late, November, it's starting to show up. She's so much stronger in her gallops. If I send her around there a mile and a half or two miles, she handles that now so much better than she did back in June.”
The Distaff could turn out to be Secret Oath's final start for Lukas. She is entered in the Fasig-Tipton's Night of the Stars sale Sunday.
Secret Oath galloped 1 ½ miles Thursday morning and Lukas said exercise rider Mickealle Michel told him she handles the track well.
Lukas is the career leader in Breeders' Cup victories and pointed out that his most recent winner was Take Charge Brandi, who won the 2014 Juvenile Fillies at 61-1.
“I'm confident, but I have great respect for the competition,” Lukas said. “When you are a horse trainer, you can be real confident in your horse, but you have to respect the others and you have to have a reality check that maybe you're not as good as they are.
“Most trainers are poor handicappers, and I'm one of them, but when you train as long as I have you have to say, 'OK, my horse is as good as I think I can make her and I wouldn't change anything Saturday.' The reality is, is she as good as two or three of the others? She might, on our best day not be able to beat them. Now Nest, we've been in the arena with her and she can't afford to lose to us again. If she wants to be champion, she's got to beat us here. If we beat her in the Breeders' Cup and we have the Oaks on our resume, you guys will have to take a hard look at this as the next champion.”
November 3, 2022: Secret Oath, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 3, 2022. John Voorhees/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Epicenter – Winchell Thoroughbreds' Epicenter continues to thrive in his training as he had another strong gallop Thursday morning under Roberto Howell leading into Saturday's Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) at Keeneland. Should he win, he'd be the third Classic winner for his trainer Steve Asmussen and the second with a 3-year-old. He won the race in 2007 with Curlin, a 3-year-old, and in 2017 with Gun Runner, a 4-year-old. Both Curlin and Gun Runner were named Horse of the Year following their victories.
“If he beats the older (horses), he's fortunately Horse of the Year,” Asmussen said. “Having the best horse in training, what is there to be more proud of? The opportunity is there. And is it easy? Absolutely not. Should it be easy? Absolutely not. I mean that that's what's so special about this. Everybody has showed up here in great shape. We've been so fortunate or blessed to be associated with all-time greats that helped teach us how to get here. The lessons learned from Curlin and Gun Runner allow us to just have that confidence level or a mind frame following what they've done.”
November 3, 2022: Epicenter, trained by Steven M. Asmussen, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 3, 2022. John Voorhees/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Flightline – Hronis Racing, Summer Wind Equine, West Point Thoroughbreds, Siena Farm and Woodford Racing's Flightline galloped 1 1/4 miles under Juan Leyva shortly after 6 o'clock Thursday morning.
The undefeated John Sadler trainee is scheduled for a similar exercise Friday morning and that will wrap up his preparation for the 1 1/4-mile $6 million Classic in which he will be ridden by Flavien Prat.
In a perfect five-for-five career in which he has won by a combined 62 ¾ lengths, Flightline has answered practically every question that could be asked.
“The mile and a quarter, that was the question before the Pacific Classic and he answered that,” Sadler said of the 19 ¼-length victory. “There's not much more I can say.”
Scheduled to arrive in Lexington Friday to kick off what could be a monumental weekend are Kosta and Pete Hronis of Hronis Racing.
They own Heywoods Beach, who runs in Friday afternoon's Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance Stakes, as well as Breeders' Cup starters Edgeway (Filly & Mare Sprint) and Bran (Turf Sprint).
November 2, 2022: Flightline, trained by John W. Sadler, in the paddock in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 2, 2022. Carolyn Simancik/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Happy Saver/Life Is Good – Wertheimer and Frere's Happy Saver, who missed a morning of training Wednesday because of a quarter crack in his left hind foot, jogged once around the main track at 6 o'clock Thursday morning with Humberto Zamora aboard for trainer Todd Pletcher.
“Happy Saver had a good morning this morning,” Pletcher said. “He got stitched up, will go the paddock later this morning and gallop Friday morning.”
CHC Inc. and WinStar Farm's Life Is Good galloped 1 1/2 miles under Amelia Green at 6:15 and also schooled in the paddock after training hours.
Life Is Good, with Martin Estrada, schooling in the paddock at Keeneland
Hot Rod Charlie – As the days until Hot Rod Charlie makes his second consecutive Longines Classic start dwindle down, the colt continues to turn in workman-like gallops for trainer Doug O'Neill. The 4-year-old son of Oxbow galloped another routine 1 1/8 miles Thursday morning under exercise rider Connor Murray.
“He trained well and cooled out well,” O'Neill said. “We're all really excited and optimistic.”
Hot Rod Charlie is set to break from post five on Saturday, directly outside of heavily favored and undefeated Flightline breaking from post four. The Longines Classic will be the first time the two colts have raced against each other. O'Neill is not a stranger to the buzz surrounding Flightline, but he remains optimistic.
“(Flightline) is worth every bit of hype,” O'Neill said. “He's just a once in a lifetime type of horse. We have the blessing to watch him train every day at home (in California), and he's looked equally as impressive out here at Keeneland from what I've seen. He's without a doubt the obvious horse to beat, but Hot Rod Charlie's the blue collared, lunch pail, hard hat, show up every race type of horse. If something happens, and Flightline doesn't run his best race, and Hot Rod Charlies does, we could maybe shock the world.”
Tyler Gaffalione will have the mount on Saturday following a win for the duo in the Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs in October for owners Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, Gainesway Stable and Strauss Bros Racing.
November 3, 2022: Hot Rod Charlie, trained by Doug F. O'Neill, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 3, 2022. Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Olympiad – At just past 7 a.m. on Thursday, Longines Classic contender Olympiad left Keeneland's Barn 60 under Neil Poznansky and jogged around the clubhouse turn, walked through the paddock and then galloped a circuit of the Keeneland dirt. Owned by Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables and LNJ Foxwoods, the son of Speightstown must step up his game on Saturday in the $6 million test if he is to compete with the likes of Flightline and Life Is Good – two frontrunning horses he also will likely have to pass to win the race.
“Life Is Good has just tremendous speed, particularly away from the gate,” trainer Bill Mott said. “He's the kind of horse who puts two or three lengths on them right away and if a horse has trouble picking up the chase, he can get a breather on the front end. With Flightline, he's a horse who maybe isn't quite as good out of the gate as Life Is Good. He has a little stutter-step leaving the gate, but it looks like after three or four strides, he gets himself together. I'm a fan and I love watching these kinds of races. You try to imagine what the outcome is going to be and how it will shape up.”
Mott is pragmatic about Olympiad's chances against the aforementioned heavyweights, but also recognizes the proven value of his Grade 1-winning charge. An eight-time winner in 12 starts, he has won six of seven this year, including Saratoga's Jockey Club Gold Cup last out on Sept. 3. His lone loss was a fourth in the Whitney behind three horses he will face again Saturday, Life Is Good, Happy Saver and Hot Rod Charlie.
“It came up very hot and humid that day, probably the hottest day we had all summer,” Mott said. “For some reason, he seemed to be very dull. That's the only explanation I have. Other than that, he's been perfect the rest of the year and he's run well against everybody we've put him up against. I would suspect he's going to run well again.
“I know how good (Flightline and Life Is Good) are, but I'm not going to rule (winning) out,” he concluded. “You see things happen in horse racing all the time. Those are two great horses, but the thing you don't want to forget is that our horse is very, very good. He's really a good horse.”
Assigned a morning line of 10-1, the earner of more than $2 million will break from post seven of eight under regular rider Junior Alvarado.
November 3, 2022: Olympiad, trained by William I. Mott, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 3, 2022. Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Rich Strike – RED TR Racing's Rich Strike galloped once around under Gabriel Lagunes for trainer Eric Reed.
“When we came down the stretch past the grandstand and the people started calling his name, he got real strong,” Lagunes said. “He knows his name.”
Reed said Rich Strike may have a similar exercise in the morning or he may go twice around with a pony. Rich Strike schooled in the paddock after training hours.
Since Rich Strike won the Kentucky Derby at 80-1 odds, life has changed for Reed.
“I never thought I could have this much fun,” Reed said. “I'm loving this because the horse is loving it.”
Rich Strike has been one of the early arrivals in the morning for training and Reed also has had the chance to watch Flightline.
“He looks full of fire and ready to run,” Reed said. “He's the only horse I see training like mine.”
November 2, 2022: Rich Strike relaxes at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 2, 2022. Carlos Calo/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Taiba – While praising the 3-5 unbeaten Classic favorite, Flightline, Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert said he could be pleased if Zedan Racing Stables' Taiba could replicate what his stablemate Medina Spirit did 12 months ago at Del Mar.
“Hey, I'll take second. It would be great, just like last year, “ Baffert said. “Knicks Go, I knew we couldn't beat him, but Medina, he ran second. He beat the rest of the 3-year-olds. It'd be nice to me if I could beat the other 3-year-olds who are in the race like Rich Strike and Epicenter.”
Should he finish ahead of the Kentucky Derby winner Rich Strike and Travers winner Epicenter, Taiba could keep himself in the conversation for the 3-year-old male division title. He is the only sophomore colt with two Grade 1 victories this season, the Santa Anita Derby and the Pennsylvania Derby, and was the runner-up in the Haskell.
Taiba and Baffert's four other Breeders' Cup horses galloped on the Keeneland track during what was a cool, foggy morning.
“They all look good,” Baffert said. “The track is in fantastic shape. I really like the way they have it. That little rain I think helped it out. It's been great. Can't use that as an excuse. The weather's beautiful; can't use that and excuse. It all comes down to having the horses show up and run their races.
Baffert said he has gotten past Taiba drawing the rail in the eight-horse race and said the task is in the capable hands of Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith.
“Once they draw the post, I don't really worry about it, because you can't change it,” Baffert said. “He breaks well and then they run away from him a little bit. I think Mike's got him figured out now that he's just going to save ground. If he would have been on the outside he would have ended up being probably wide around the first turn. I don't know. You just don't know with him.”
Baffert said the chestnut, who was purchased for $1.7 million at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton March sale, is a challenge.
“Taiba is sort of a difficult horse,” Baffert said. “He's difficult to train. He's difficult to ride because he's just he's like a kid that's not going to do his homework. He's one of these that you've got to stay after him. But he's doing really well. He looks exceptionally well and I think he's going to get better as he gets older.
“I hope he's like his sire, Gun Runner. At 4 he turned into a great, great, great horse. I think he was that way, just didn't mature. He's getting there. He's growing. He's grown a lot since the spring. He's powerful and he likes to run at a target and he's got some some serious targets. Life Is Good, I think he's superior, like Flightline. I don't think there's a lot separating those two horses, myself, because I had Life Is Good and I know how good he is.”
While Flightline is the obvious standout because of the way he has thrashed the competition in his five races, Baffert said this Classic has a strong field.
“I think there's some nice horses in there,” Baffert said. “You've got Olympiad on his best day. Hot Rod Charlie's going to be right there. I think it's a really, really competitive race, even though Flightline, he's just been so brilliant and you can't take that away.”
Baffert said he wasn't conceding the race to Fightline, but that it's hard to knock him since he has dominated the competition in every race.
“Race luck gets you beat,” Baffert said. “If anything's going to get him beat, it's going to be racing luck. I've sent horses up there where they didn't get the trip, they didn't break or they did something and they get beat. On paper – I know they don't run the race on paper – but I think he's easily a good five lengths faster than all of us. It could be seven. It could be 10. I don't know.”
Baffert again compared Flightline to his 2015 Triple Crown and Classic winner American Pharoah.
“He's an exciting horse to watch run. I've been watching him work,” Baffert said. “He reminds me of Pharoah and the way he breezes just effortlessly. He just cruises around there. It's sort of fun watching a great horse train like him. Even though he hasn't had that many starts, I just give him the utmost respect. I know what greatness looks like, and, believe me, he is great.”
November 3, 2022: Taiba, trained by Bob Baffert, exercises in preparation for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, Kentucky on November 3, 2022. Scott Serio/Eclipse Sportswire/Breeders Cup
Breeders' Cup action continues at Keeneland Saturday with nine Championship races. The TDN staff provides detailed previews of each of those events in our special Breeders' Cup Saturday edition. Click here for all you need to know.
Saturday's program includes the GI Longines Breeders' Cup Classic, GI Longines Breeders' Cup Distaff, GI Longines Breeders' Cup Turf, GI Breeders' Cup Maker's Mark F/M Turf, GI Breeders' Cup Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile, GI Breeders' Cup FanDuel Mile, GI Qatar Racing Breeders' Cup Sprint, GI Breeders' Cup F/M Sprint and GI Breeders' Turf Sprint.
Among the many highlights are unbeaten Flightline's (Tapit) quest for glory in the Classic and a showdown between stablemates Malathaat (Curlin) and Nest (Curlin) in the Distaff.