breeders' cup juvenile | Horse Racing Free Tips

Essential Quality Readies for Belmont

Godolphin's Essential Quality (Tapit) breezed a sharp five furlongs in :59.80 at Churchill Downs Saturday morning. The move was the fifth fastest of 40 horses at the distance. The grey worked in company with 5-year-old graded stakes winner Night Ops (Warrior's Reward) through early fractions of :24.20 and :47.60, according to Churchill Downs clocker John Nichols.

Named the juvenile champion colt following a victory in last fall's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Keeneland, trained by Brad Cox-trained colt won the GIII Southwest S. and GII Toyota Blue Grass S. before finishing fourth as the 5-2 favorite in the May 1 Kentucky Derby.

A total of 169 horses registered works at Churchill Downs Saturday morning, including GII Risen Star S. winner Mandaloun (Into Mischief), who cruised an easy half-mile in :48.20. Runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, the Juddmonte homebred next start is still to be determined, according to Cox.

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Champion Essential Quality Draws The Rail For 2021 Debut In Southwest Stakes

Oaklawn's four-race Kentucky Derby points series, specifically the Rebel and Arkansas Derby, is littered with starters who were Eclipse Award winners at 2. A third race has finally drawn a champion, too.

Godolphin LLC's Essential Quality, the country's champion 2-year-old male, will make his 2021 debut in Saturday's $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) at 1 1/16 miles. The Southwest anchors an 11-race program that begins at 12:15 p.m. (Central). Probable post time for the Southwest, which goes as race 10, is 4:58 p.m.

The Southwest will offer 17 points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1, respectively) toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Brad Cox won the first race in this year's series, the $150,000 Smarty Jones Jan. 22, with Caddo River, who, in his stakes debut, recorded the most lopsided victory in race history (10 ¼ lengths). Essential Quality is much more accomplished. The gray son of super sire Tapit is unbeaten in three career starts, including the $400,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) Oct. 3 at Keeneland and the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 6 at Keeneland to close his 2020 campaign.

Essential Quality has been based this winter at Fair Grounds, recording eight workouts in 2021, the last two (Feb. 14 and Feb. 20) coming after severe winter weather led Oaklawn to twice postpone the Southwest. It was originally scheduled to be run Feb. 15. Essential Quality, the 3-2 program favorite, arrived Wednesday night in Hot Springs for what Cox said he hopes is the first of two preps for the May 1 Kentucky Derby.

Cox, in large part, said he chose to start Essential Quality's 2021 campaign in the Southwest, rather than the $400,000 Risen Star Stakes (G2) Feb. 13 Fair Grounds, because of distance.

“The mile and an eighth, off a layoff, I just didn't think it made the most sense for him,” said Cox, who still won the nine-furlong Risen Star with Mandaloun. “We're going to get through the first one before we decide where the second one will be. Off the layoff, the mile and a sixteenth just made more sense than a mile and an eighth.”

Essential Quality came from well off a hot pace in the Breeders' Juvenile to post a three-quarter length victory under Luis Saez. Among seven Southwest entrants is the speedy Jackie's Warrior, who suffered his first career loss in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile when he was beaten 3 ¼ lengths in his two-turn debut. Jackie's Warrior, on paper, is the speed of the speed in the Southwest.

“We're not going to sacrifice our horse to do anything out of the norm,” Cox said. “We're just going to let him run his race. Luis has obviously ridden him the last two times really well.”

The projected field from the rail out: Essential Quality, Luis Saez to ride, 119 pounds, 3-2 on the morning line; Saffa's Day, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117, 10-1; Last Samurai, Jon Court, 117, 12-1; Jackie's Warrior, Joel Rosario, 119, 8-5; Santa Cruiser, Richard Eramia, 117, 12-1; Woodhouse, David Cabrera, 117, 8-1; and Spielberg, Martin Garcia, 119, 9-2.

Jackie's Warrior was a multiple Grade 1 winner last year for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen. Like Essential Quality, Jackie's Warrior (4 for 5) has been based this winter at Fair Grounds and will be making his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest, a race Asmussen has won three times.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert will send out Spielberg in search of a record-tying fifth Southwest victory. Named for Steven Spielberg, a two-time Academy Award winner for best director, Spielberg will be making his first start since a disappointing fourth-place finish in his 3-year-old debut, the $100,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3) at 1 1/16 miles Jan. 30 at Santa Anita.

Spielberg had a productive 2-year-old campaign, finishing second and third, as a maiden, in the $250,000 Del Mar Futurity (G1) at Del Mar and $300,000 American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, respectively, and winning the $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) at 1 1/16 miles Dec. 19 at Los Alamitos. The son of Union Rags, a $1 million purchase at the 2019 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, wasn't originally nominated to the Southwest, but Baffert opted to hit the road after the race was postponed twice and Oaklawn reopened the nomination period.

“My horses are usually forwardly placed, but there's a lot of speed in there,” Baffert said. “He's not the kind of horse that would be on the lead. It looks like a pretty tough race.”

Oaklawn's Kentucky Derby points series continues with the $1 million Rebel (G2) March 13 and the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 10.

The Southwest will be Essential Quality's first 2021 Kentucky Derby audition.

“Once the Breeders' Cup was over and we let the dust settle, thought that we would start him back mid-February,” Cox said. “It would be nice to get two races in him, and hopefully he shows us enough to march forward to the first Saturday in May.”

Essential Quality (30), Spielberg (13) and Jackie's Warrior (12) rank 2-8-9, respectively, on the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard, according to Churchill Downs. Saffa's Day and Woodhouse are removing Lasix for the Southwest. Under new guidelines, points are only awarded to horses who compete without the anti-bleeder medication in Kentucky Derby points races.

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Jackie’s Warrior, Former King of the Hill, Looks to Reclaim His Perch

In the world's current state of affairs, a lot can change in a few months' time. Racing is no different. One only has to go back to November to remember when Kirk and Judy Robison's Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) was the undisputed leader of his age group. But an odds-on loss on the sport's biggest stage took the bloom off of his rose for some, and these days, despite being a multiple Grade I winner, one could argue he is a forgotten colt as the GI Kentucky Derby trail kicks into high gear.

But opportunity knocks this Saturday, in the twice-delayed GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn, where the brilliant $95,000 Keeneland September grad will make his 3-year-old debut and get his long-awaited rematch with the rival who snatched away his Eclipse statuette with a conquest of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Essential Quality (Tapit).

“Steve [Asmussen]'s extremely happy with the horse, I personally love the draw, number four in a seven-horse field and you get the favorite down on the rail, so I think we're good to go,” Robison said Wednesday of the Southwest, which was originally supposed to run Feb. 15 but got pushed back two times due to inclement weather in Hot Springs. “Steve never considered another race. From 6-8 weeks ago, he was always on track for this race and I think when they announced Essential Quality was probably going there too, it scared a few people off, but that's where we wanted to go from day one. No excuses.”

After dominating a trio of historic 2-year-old stakes last summer and fall–the GII Saratoga Special S., GI Runhappy Hopeful S. and GI Champagne S.–Jackie's Warrior was regarded highly enough to be hammered down to 9-10 favoritism in the Juvenile, one of the shortest prices of the entire Breeders' Cup weekend. But the speedball was caught too close to a scorching pace of :22.58 and :45.31, and just faded late after making the lead in mid-stretch under Joel Rosario, ending up fourth, beaten 3 3/4 lengths by tripped-out closer Essential Quality.

The nature of that first defeat raised doubts about Jackie's Warrior's ability to see out two-turn races, considering his running style and sprint-leaning pedigree.

“I think there's always been some question about whether he could get a mile and a sixteenth against top-flight horses,” Robison said. “He was not able to do it that day, but I'm very confident he can get it done Saturday. It's a different circumstance, smaller field, and I think Rosario and Steve probably learned a lot from what happened in the Juvenile, so let's see what happens.”

As for potentially trying to throttle the horse's speed down to increase his staying chances, Robison said, “He really is freaky fast, and I remember Steve telling me a long time ago about horses, 'Never take away what they do well.' So if you have a horse who outbreaks the field, don't take that advantage away from the horse, let him go on. He's just a natural speed horse and I think that's what his style will be. The question is going to always be, how far can he take that kind of speed? We'll find out.”

And, if Jackie's Warrior doesn't continue on the Derby trail after Saturday, that will be just fine with Robison, a veteran of the game who deeply appreciates the prestige of big races beyond the Run for the Roses.

“If he turns into a multiple Grade I winner around one turn, that's not the end of the world,” he said with a laugh. “I don't get up in the morning dreaming about a Derby horse. People at cocktail parties only want to hear about the Derby, but most of us in the industry know with these Grade I sprints and one-turn mile races, how important they are. I'm not going to presume what Steve's going to do after this race, but having said that, I think he'll run extremely well.”

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Keepmeinmind Staying Put for Southwest

Despite the weather-enforced postponement of the GIII Southwest S., Keepmeinmind (Laoban) will remain in his stall at Oaklawn Park and will pass this weekend's GII Risen Star S. at the Fair Grounds, trainer Robertino Diodoro confirmed Wednesday.

“In the end, I feel better running him out of his own stall,” Diodoro said.

The bay colt, who was third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile before breaking his maiden in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 28, turned in his sixth breeze of the year Monday in Hot Springs, going a half-mile in :49.60 beneath jockey David Cohen.

“David did a great job again working him,” said Diodoro, Oaklawn's leading trainer last year. “A horse like him, as aggressive as he is, you get the wrong guy on him and all of sudden your nice, easy half-mile work could turn into :45, :46. Even with those other works, it's the same thing. He's a horse that you've definitely got to have the right guy on or you could really blow a work.”

The Southwest is also likely to attract champion Essential Quality (Tapit) and MGISW Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music).

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