brad cox | Horse Racing Free Tips

Hit Show Comes With ‘Withering’ Run at the Big A

The betting public got it right in Saturday's GIII Withers S. at Aqueduct, rescheduled from Feb. 4 due to extreme cold, as Gary and Mary West's Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) sat a golden trip beneath Manny Franco and shot clear from 8-5 second-elect Arctic Arrogance (Arrogate) to take the Triple Crown prep by about four lengths.

Looking to build on a strong 3 1/2-length allowance victory going Oaklawn's short-stretch mile Dec. 17, the homebred gray was quietly ridden and was content to save ground after a clean break, as Arctic Arrogance–runner-up in the local GII Remsen S. and Jerome S. in his two most recent appearances–set a pressured pace from 80-1 Prove Right (Justify) and 'TDN Rising Star' Andiamo a Firenze (Speightstown) over the heavy surface. Working his way into it nicely with an inside move leaving the three-furlong marker, Hit Show had his sights set on the pacemaker as they hit the stretch, grabbed him at the eighth pole and drew off while weaving in and out to the line.

Hit Show was a fast-finishing, 5 1/2-length debut winner going seven furlongs at Keeneland Oct. 9 and bobbled at the start of his first two-turn try at Churchill Nov. 26, running on some to be fourth as the favorite behind the promising Confidence Game (Candy Ride–Eblouissante)–subsequently third in the GIII Lecomte S.–and Rocket Can (Into Mischief), winner of the GIII Holy Bull S. on his sophomore debut Feb. 4.

“We're all proud of the horse, proud of the performance,” said trainer Brad Cox, whose charge picked up 20 Kentucky Derby points. “He had an opportunity to breeze at Belmont on Monday and we're happy with how the horse was doing leading up to the race. He had plenty of time to recover from his last one at Oaklawn in December and it set up well. He ran a big race.”

Pedigree Notes:

Hit Show is the 109th stakes winner and 52nd graded winner for Candy Ride and is the first graded stakes winner (five stakes winners overall) bred on the cross of Candy Ride over Tapit mares. Twirling Candy is the sire of Grade III winner Gear Jockey, who is out of a Tapit dam.

The Wests also bred and raced Hit Show's dam, winner of the GII Black-Eyed Susan S. and this track's GIII Comely S. at three and placed twice at the graded level in 2018. A daughter of Sovereign Award-winning 3-year-old filly Milwaukee Appeal, herself a three-time stakes winner and placed in the GI Alabama S. and GI Juddmonte Spinster S., Hit Show is kin to the winning 4-year-old filly Hot Rumor (Medaglia d'Oro), a juvenile filly by Curlin and a yearling filly by Medaglia d'Oro. Actress is due for a full-sibling to Hit Show this season.

Saturday, Aqueduct
WITHERS S.-GIII, $250,000, Aqueduct, 2-11, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:54.71, ft.
1–HIT SHOW, 118, c, 3, by Candy Ride (Arg)
                1st Dam: Actress (MGSW, $545,150), by Tapit
                2nd Dam: Milwaukee Appeal, by Milwaukee Brew
                3rd Dam: Appealing Forum, by Open Forum
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. O/B-Gary &
Mary West Stables Inc. (KY); T-Brad H. Cox; J-Manuel Franco.
$137,500. Lifetime Record: 4-3-0-0, $264,375. Werk Nick
Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*
Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the
free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Arctic Arrogance, 118, c, 3, Frosted–Modest Maven,
by Uncle Mo. O/B-Chester & Mary R. Broman (NY); T-Linda
Rice. $50,000.
3–General Banker, 118, c, 3, Central Banker–Elusive Jozi,
by Johannesburg. 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. O/B-Seacoast
Thoroughbreds of New England (NY); T-James W. Ferraro.
$30,000.
Margins: 5HF, 6 1/4, 14 3/4. Odds: 1.30, 1.75, 8.80.
Also Ran: Andiamo a Firenze, Prove Right, Jungfrau, Ninetyprcentmaddie.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Derby Preps Headline Weekend Slate

A pair of 20-point GI Kentucky Derby preps headline Saturday's stakes action in the U.S.

Aqueduct's GIII Withers S.–pushed back a week due to cold weather–was helped slightly from a field size perspective by the delay and a group of seven are now set to line up. Gary and Mary West's Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) invades from Oaklawn and will look to provide trainer Brad Cox with a first Withers trophy. A dominant debut winner going seven panels at Keeneland in October, he could only manage fourth as the favorite in a two-turn Churchill allowance Nov. 26, but the strength of that field has been demonstrated in the interim. Winner Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) was third in January's GIII Lecomte S., while runner-up Rocket Can (Into Mischief) annexed last week's GIII Holy Bull S. Hit Show, meanwhile, took an Oaklawn allowance by daylight Dec. 17, good for a career-best 82 Beyer Speed Figure. His dam Actress (Tapit) was an 8 1/4-length winner of the track-and-trip GIII Comely S. in 2017. A trio of stakes-winning New York-breds also figure to have a say: Arctic Arrogance (Frosted), General Banker (Central Banker) and Andiamo a Firenze (Speightstown) were second, third and fifth, respectively, in the one-mile Jerome S. Jan. 7.

Meanwhile, down south, a full field of 12 will contest the GIII Sam F. Davis S. Danny Gargan trainee Dubyuhnell (Good Magic) makes his first start since a breakout tally in the nine-furlong GII Remsen S. in the Aqueduct slop Dec. 3. He earned a field-best 90 Beyer for that performance. 'TDN Rising Star' Champions Dream (Justify) was also a member of the Gargan barn when he scored in the Big A's GIII Nashua S. in November. Subsequently transferred to trainer Mark Casse by owner Rosedown Racing Stables, he was beaten a neck by re-opposing Zydeceaux (Cajun Breeze) in the local seven-furlong Pasco S. Jan. 14. Trainer Todd Pletcher owns a record six Davis wins, but is looking to end a drought since 2016. He sends out Litigate (Blame), a well-beaten second last time in a Gulfstream allowance behind Holy Bull beaten favorite Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief).

Saturday's Tampa card also marks the return of champion juvenile filly Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief), who takes on GII Demoiselle S. winner and 'Rising Star' Julia Shining (Curlin) in the Suncoast S.

A third Derby qualifier, the 10-point El Camino Real Derby, takes place Saturday at Golden Gate. Bob Baffert and The Avengers send a pair northward to square off with unbeaten local speedster Harcyn (Goldencents).

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This Side Up: For This Road, The ‘Knight’ Will Need Armor

No matter where you start from, the choice on Saturday is the same for everyone: do you head southeast, or Southwest? Okay, if you happen to be in Key West, you'll uniquely have to head a little way north to join the party in Miami. For many of us, however, the compass needle will instead be quivering towards to the GIII Southwest S.

The big bucks are obviously at Gulfstream. But it tells you plenty about the inside-out values of this business that even a prize exceeded in the U.S. by a single other race would not quite fund the docket signed on behalf of Zedan Racing Stables, up the road at OBS last April, for a son of Uncle Mo. And it's in Hot Springs that we'll start to find out whether even those giddy stakes might yet yield a dividend.

Now, anyone who spends as much as $2.3 million on a colt that has clocked :9 4/5 under tack will typically do so in the hope of putting him right where we find 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight now–as the current No. 1 in colleague T.D. Thornton's GI Kentucky Derby “Top 12”. As things stand, however, his trainer remains ineligible to bank the 20 starting points available to the winner of this race. And there's a curveball, this time, in that any Derby candidate in the Bob Baffert barn must move out by the end of February. That's over a month earlier than when Baffert had to send out his refugees last year.

With his lawyers trying to break those chains next week, we can leave for another day what has for everyone become a rather wearisome sub-plot. For now, it will be compelling simply to see how Arabian Knight responds to some talented and rather more seasoned opposition, having presumably learned little in outclassing a field of maidens at Keeneland. It's obviously encouraging that his closest pursuer that day has done so well since; and we saw, last year, how adeptly Baffert educated another expensive 2-year-old purchase for the same owners, Taiba (Gun Runner), so that he could win the GI Santa Anita Derby for his new trainer, with only a similarly undemanding debut behind him.

(To listen to an audio version of this story, click the arrow below)

True, the first Saturday in May still came too soon for Taiba. Arabian Knight, however, is miles ahead of that curve and he's going to learn plenty from this whole experience, however it plays out, after boarding a plane to run a second turn for the first time. Unsurprisingly, he has been laying a foundation of powerful works back in California, but he must square up to a rival in Corona Bolt (Bolt d'Oro) who has, despite a rather upright head carriage, looked extremely fast and professional in two sprints.

If these two instinctive talents are likely to resemble sparkling new sabres, sending sparks flying until one is finally forced clattering onto the floor, then they need to keep Corona Bolt's barnmate Jace's Road (Quality Road) in the corner of their eye. For here is a rival who knows the difference between a mere duel and a pitched battle; one who's been learning self-defense and strategy at the marine training camp.

Yes, he too flashed raw talent with a 'Rising Star' sprint debut. But it was as long ago as September that he started on the kind of life lessons that still await Arabian Knight. Sampling the Derby surface in the GIII Iroquois S., he got drawn into pursuit of a couple that turned out merely to be hauling each other to the ground. But whereas they dropped out accordingly, Jace's Road bravely renewed battle with the closers and grabbed a place.

After that chastening rite of passage, his next start made it possible to wonder which way Jace's Road was going: his whole demeanor was irritable, and his mood cannot have improved as he trailed home splattered in slop. But then came the Gun Runner S., over the same course as this race, and suddenly he had it all figured out. He broke sharply, went bounding along in the lead and opened up late for a decisive score.

Brad Cox, who additionally saddles Hit Show (Candy Ride {Arg}) here, has an absolute cavalry to sieve down on the Classic trail. Last weekend he saddled Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) for that efficient score in the GIII Lecomte S., as well as two fillies that finished over a dozen lengths clear of the rest in the Oaks trial. It feels very much as though Cox has now entered upon an even more potent cycle, after his four winners at the 2020 Breeders' Cup invited all the top programs to conclude that if they couldn't beat him, they may as well join him.

Instant Coffee runs in the same silks as Cyberknife, who gets the chance to stage his very own, flesh-and-blood stallion promotion in the Pegasus. Knowing Spendthrift, he's likely to enjoy a heroically lascivious lifestyle over the coming months. If only somebody could get him to understand the situation, he'd be the bet of all time.

Actually, I suppose the chances are that he's already operating on some primal sense of the benefits reserved for the herd leader. Anyway, be that as it may, this will be Cyberknife's 11th start in 13 months since he broke his maiden, so he evidently has the hardware to have sustained another campaign on the track. But we all recognize that he stands to make much more in his second career than in his first, even if he tops up an account already through $2 million by winning the Pegasus.

Certainly Cyberknife has achieved as much as anyone could dare to hope in spending $400,000 for a Saratoga yearling. But while everyone involved will thank him for his sterling service, and will miss him once he has moved on, the reality is that Instant Coffee–while not yet half the racehorse–has already supplanted Cyberknife in the attention of most.

For the Eclipse Awards are all on the mantlepiece now, and even Flightline's only job is to nourish a new dream. And, actually, that's great. Because it's the next dream that will always refresh our appetite for the game; that will have all those mares waiting in line at Spendthrift.

It's this mutual stimulus between racing and breeding, between track and field, that maintains human passion as the driver of the billions invested, not just in our industry, but in our sport. That's why someone will give $2.3 million for a horse bought a few months earlier for $250,000; and also why a fellow can get it into his head, after a fairly random visit to the Bluegrass, to buy himself a horse farm and populate it with a few mares. That's how Corser Thoroughbreds came to buy a young mare by Astrology at the 2019 Keeneland November Sale, carrying a first foal by Uncle Mo, for $285,000. That foal is Arabian Knight.

So the end of one chapter for Cyberknife will only open a new one. Who knows? Perhaps there's another novice breeder out there, who will end up putting a colt by Cyberknife on the 2027 Derby trail. And if we'll all be older then, and probably no wiser, then those are the kind of dreams–endlessly repeated, ever revitalized–that also keep us young.

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TDN Derby Top 12: Little Thaw in Early Winter Ranks

We're still in the early part of the season where the rankings are largely based on juvenile form and a hefty dose of speculation. As we segue into February, the forecast calls for “frost heaves” that will likely shift the balance of power just enough to keep things interesting. But at 15 weeks out, everyone on the GI Kentucky Derby trail is still allowed to dream big.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $86,025. Last start: 1st Keeneland Maiden Special Weight, Nov. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight (($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR sale-topper) is Oaklawn-bound. Trainer Bob Baffert disclosed to Daily Racing Form on Sunday that the

GIII Southwest S. on Saturday will be the 2023 coming-out party for the powerful colt who blitzed to a dominant (7 1/4 lengths with a 97 Beyer Speed Figure) victory on the Breeders' Cup undercard in his one and only start.

To put this son of Uncle Mo's 1:21.98 final clocking from that race into perspective, the only other seven-furlong race on Breeders' Cup Saturday, the GI Filly and Mare Sprint, which featured older, highly accomplished distaffers, was timed just .37 seconds faster.

“He's not speed-crazy,” jockey John Velazquez said after that scintillating win. “I put my hands down, he came right back to me. Settled really good on the turn, and when I asked him to go down the stretch, he was there for me.”

At this point we have to insert the usual disclaimer that's become standard in the Top 12 write-ups the past two years: Churchill Downs has banned Baffert from the Derby related to his under-appeal equine drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points and competing in the Derby itself. But while this issue plays out via litigation and at the racing commission level, the focus here will be on the talents of his horses and not courtroom drama.

Saturday's Southwest now looms as the most compelling stakes on the Derby trail that we've seen so far this year.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Beyond the gravitas of having won three straight Grade I stakes, including his 100-Beyer score in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Forte stands out among the Top 12 contenders for his ability to break well, settle willingly, and reel in targets.

Those traits were evident in both of his wins at 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland and his neck victory in the GI Breeders' Futurity S. (with the remainder of the field six lengths behind the top two) was in many ways a more powerful performance than his 1 1/2-length Juvenile tally.

This 'TDN Rising Star' was forwardly placed, but edged back to seventh in his Oct. 8 race, attained a nice cruising speed amongst traffic, then methodically worked his way up to a contending spot before being fully unleashed off the far turn to knock back multiple bids from a very game runner-up.

In the Juvenile, Forte again came out running, picked a prime stalking spot, waited patiently, then sliced off the inside while building up serious momentum to collar a wilting favorite before being kept to task through the final sixteenth.

The Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream is slated as his sophomore debut, with the GI Florida Derby or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. possibilities after that. An easy three-eighths breeze on Saturday marked his return to the work tab at Palm Beach Downs.

3) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

Purely based on the way the Breeders' Cup Juvenile unfolded, 'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock's beaten-fave second has a “lost the battle, but it could improve his chances in the overall war” type of flavor to it.

This strapping son of Arrogate got keyed up pre-race and exerted himself trying to fight free from a 70-1 long shot through an opening quarter of :22.90 (second-fastest opening split in the Juvenile since 2014), then had little left to stave off the onrushing Forte.

A bit of growing up so that his temperament matches the talent he displayed in getting off to a 3-for-3 start last summer (including two Grade I wins at Del Mar) will go a long way toward leveling his chances in a rematch–although he and his rival are unlikely to meet until the Derby itself considering Cave Rock is based in SoCal and Forte is wintering in Florida.

If you go by longer-term trends, losing the Juvy might also actually work in Cave Rock's favor: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Derby wins (Nyquist in 2016 and Street Sense in 2007) from 38 runnings.

Then again, second- and third-place Juvenile finishers haven't fared much better. Those 76 horses have also accounted for only two Derby wins, by Alysheba in 1987 (third in the 1986 Juvenile) and Spend A Buck in 1985 (third in the 1984 Juvenile).

4) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $56,950. Last start: 1st Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 17. KY Derby Points: 0.

Tapit Trice was a touch green at the start of his Nov. 6 debut, then split horses capably and finished with interest, justifying 17-10 favoritism in his Dec. 17 maiden-breaking win.

Both races were more visually impressive than their Beyers (73 and 89) suggest, and considering that Tapit Trice's one-turn-mile score came over a muddy, sealed Aqueduct surface, the suggestion here is to take those speed figures with a figurative grain of salt.

The vagaries of winter racing in New York can sometimes make it difficult to come up with accurate projections and final numbers, and as we saw last season on the Triple Crown trail (when eventual GI Preakness S. winner Early Voting got a winning 78 Beyer from February at Aqueduct retooled months later to a significantly higher 87), all figures are subject to revision when circumstances warrant it.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP is now at Palm Beach Downs for trainer Todd Pletcher and has been breezing on a weekly basis for his first start against winners.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

Banishing had to scratch out of an allowance/optional claimer at Fair Grounds on Saturday after reportedly getting cast in his stall and scraping a hind leg. The abrasions aren't considered serious enough to derail him from long-term training.

This Godolphin homebred broke his maiden over 1 1/16 miles Dec. 26 in New Orleans, edging away on the lead while taking pace pressure before blasting the race open in deep stretch by 8 1/2 lengths (90 Beyer). That MSW route has already yielded one next-out winner, who popped at 18-1 odds on Saturday.

Banishing's Nov. 13 debut in a one-turn-mile at Churchill was also much better than it appears on paper: He raced in the 10 path early yet contested the pace, then rallied four wide into the turn before almost attaining the lead between calls. After it looked like he was fading from his mid-race efforts, he kicked in again and secured fourth.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last start: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin earned 'TDN Rising Star' status sprinting in his Dec. 26 debut, but you don't have to dig too deeply in his pedigree to uncover reliable stamina influences.

At 10 furlongs, sire Curlin ran third in the 2007 Derby and later won the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, while damsire Hard Spun was Curlin's rival that same season, finishing just ahead of him when second in the Derby and right behind him when second in the Classic. Faustin's dam, Hard Not to Like, was a three-time Grade I grass victress at distances up to nine furlongs. And his second dam on the female side, Like a Gem, scored in three grass routes in Canada, including one at 1 1/4 miles at age three.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR after breezing an eighth in :10 flat), a high-energy gray, was unfazed by a slow start, a “busy” ride, and twice having to switch off heels turning for home in his 89-Beyer win.

7) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Much like Tapit Trice ranked at No. 4, Signator is another son of Tapit who wasn't quite ready for prime time in his debut, but nevertheless raced with enough promise despite greenness to win as the deserving favorite in start number two.

And yes, just like it was mentioned in Tapit Trice's write-up, this could be a case in which the visual resonance of Signator's races rate higher than the two Beyers he received (73 in each race).

This $1.7 million OBSAPR colt was penciled in for a third start, in the Nov. 6 GIII Nashua S., but trainer Shug McGuaghey had to withdraw him because of a wrenched ankle that has since healed. After a Dec. 31 breeze at Payson Park, Signator was absent from the work tab until Jan. 18, so it looks like he's going to need a touch more time before we see him in the entries, most likely at either Gulfstream or Tampa.

8) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

Even though he's a 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star,' Victory Formation flies a touch under the radar within the Top 12. But that's primarily because his connections have shaped his early-career progression arc without yet attempting a graded stakes.

This son of 2017 GI Belmont S. victor Tapwrit most recently coasted home unopposed by three lengths at 3-5 odds in Oaklawn's short-stretch Smarty Jones S. at one mile, and even though that field gave off a weak-on-paper vibe, the win still represented a capable, no-nonsense two-turn debut and it capped a trio of escalating Beyers that now reads 81, 85 and 91 without any numerical regression so far.

“He's a pretty smart horse,” trainer Brad Cox recently told the Oaklawn notes team. “I know I've said that several times, but he really is. He's a horse that doesn't overdo it. He's not too hard on himself and I think that's going to take him a long way and, hopefully, allow him to get more ground.”

The nine-furlong Feb. 18 GII Risen Star S. at Victory Formation's Fair Grounds training base could be next, with the following Saturday's 1 1/16-miles GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn a possible backup option.

9) HEJAZI (c, 3, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc. B-Chester & Mary Broman (NY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: Maiden win at SA Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

With the exception of his sale-topping $3.55-million EASMAY price tag, Hejazi doesn't fit the mold of many of Bob Baffert's trainees who embark upon the Derby trail.

For starters, this colt is a New York-bred. His three older siblings own an aggregate record of 3-for-35, competing largely at the low end of the claiming echelon. Hejazi also required four starts to break his maiden.

But the experience he compiled at age two includes two runner-up tries (one behind a track-record winning stablemate at 5 1/2 furlongs), plus a third-place effort in a Grade I route when up against No. 3-ranked phenom Cave Rock.

“We gave him some time, gave him a chance to reboot,” said Baffert after this colt's 97-Beyer win as a first-time Lasix user going 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita Jan. 15. “We wanted to get some weight back on him. We put him through a pretty ambitious [juvenile campaign].”

Sent for speed from post one, always under pressure, and shrugging off his two closest pursuers with aplomb inside the final sixteenth, Hejazi's “worth-the-wait” effort was athletically impressive enough to land him a berth within the Top 12.

10) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. Kentucky Derby Points: 32.

Instant Coffee has now taken the overland route from off the pace to win two consecutive graded stakes at 1 1/16 miles after his 92-Beyer score in the GIII Lecomte S. on Saturday.

There were six races at that distance Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds, and this son of Bolt d'Oro posted the fastest final clocking, running .19 seconds quicker than older Grade III stakes horses in the Louisiana S. a half-hour earlier.

When compared to his sophomore peers however, Instant Coffee's final times for the Lecomte and his win in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. represent the sixth- and seventh-slowest among the eight points-awarding Derby qualifying races run so far at 1 1/16 miles in 2022-23.

Trainer Brad Cox said Sunday that Instant Coffee is likely to keep racing in New Orleans, but he's undecided if the remainder of his prep campaign will include both the Risen Star S. and the GII Louisiana Derby, or just the Louisiana Derby itself.

11) JACE'S ROAD (c, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver Deputy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Colts Neck Stables (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-0-1, $126,800. Last Start: Won Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kentucky Derby Points: 13

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road already has run three two-turn stakes. Even though one of them is a complete “put a line through it” type of race, the important thing is this $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road rebounded capably to win right back off what trainer Brad Cox described as a “meltdown” performance.

In the GIII Street Sense S .at Churchill Oct. 30, favorite Jace's Road dislodged his jockey at the gate, jogged off for a furlong, was remounted, then ran a lackluster eighth over a sealed, sloppy surface.

We'll still probably have to guess as to whether he'll be able handle another off track. But his rebound race in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds was a 90-Beyer wiring that underscored this colt's ability to put his head down, find the front, and take pressure while seeming unfazed by it en route to the winner's circle.

Jace's Road was projected to be the early favorite for Saturday's Southwest S. before word broke that No. 1-ranked Arabian Knight would be crashing the party.

12) DETERMINEDLY (c, Cairo Prince–Bailzee, by Grand Slam) O-John Oxley. B-Bedouin Bloodstock (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $80,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 8-2-2-1, $188,950. Last Start: AOC victory at Fair Grounds Jan. 21. Kentucky Derby Points: 3.

Determinedly, an $80,000 KEESEP gray by Cairo Prince, already has made eight starts. That's not a huge number by historical standards, but in this less-is-more era of prepping Derby prospects, his experience stands out.

True, it took him six tries to find the winner's circle. But he did race respectably against grass stakes company at Saratoga last summer while still a maiden, and his transition back to dirt has resulted in a maiden win, a trip-troubled third in the Gun Runner S., and a score on Saturday in an allowance/optional claimer (the one that No. 5-ranked Banishing scratched out of).

He shook free on the front end through moderate splits and did tire a bit late, but the effort bears watching as a stepping-stone type of race considering he showed a new dimension in seizing the lead.

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