Body & Soul: Please Do Talk About Me When I’m Gone

It’s not exactly an axiom but it seems almost as soon as a stallion is exported from this country, the racehorses he left behind start making a lot of noise. Without getting too deep into the bushes by matching these stallions with their offspring–while acknowledging Empire Maker, Hard Spun and Daredevil among the previous and recent returnees–we present such examples as New Year’s Day (Maximum Security), Declaration of War (Decorated Invader) and Eskendereya (Mitole).

To this list we have added Super Saver, one of the more surprising exports of the past few years, a stallion who is back in the news after a couple of years at his new home in Turkey (where Daredevil was originally exported). We are not going to engage in any finger-wagging over his exportation, however, even considering the fact that in his absence his son, Eclipse winner Runhappy, has turned out to be the most promoted young stallion in the history of the game. Another son, Competitive Edge, has had a spiffy start at stud, and yet another, the 3-year-old Happy Saver, achieved undefeated Grade I-winning status while pummeling his older opponents in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last month.

Rather, we are going to look at Super Saver within the context of how he has emerged as the savior of an exceptionally iconoclastic sire line by examining the evolution of his tail-male ancestors in biomechanical terms–data which prompted eyebrow-arching when we completed our research.

On pedigree alone, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver is a good story. His genes are infused with history and classicism which should not be a surprise since he traces in tail-female to the epochal *La Troienne through the branch established by Numbered Account, his fourth dam.

But the irony of this horse’s impact on the breed thus far stems mostly from the almost happenstance survival of his five-generation sire line tracing back to the line-founding Raise a Native through that one’s sometimes “misremembered” son, Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Majestic Prince.

Majestic Prince, a foal of 1966, was a big, strong-bodied chestnut resembling his sire in many visible ways. Although we do not have his biomechanical measurements, we have his daddy’s, and those of his four sons who made some impression at stud: Coastal, Eternal Prince, Simply Majestic and Majestic Light. Based on their critical measurements, most of Majestic Prince’s sons had mixed biomechanics which led to their modest records as sires of sires.

Except, of course, for Majestic Light.

Although he may have appeared to the naked eye to be a bit light, except for his bay color, Majestic Light was, indeed, a close physical replica of Raise a Native (and by implication Majestic Prince). He had the same height, heart girth and almost identical measurements through the ilium, femur and tibia–the power and acceleration compendium through the hip and hock–as Raise a Native.

However, he differed substantially in the length of his rear cannon, which turned out to be quite a bit longer than his grandsire’s, and one not common in the stallion population at the time. The rear cannon provides the leverage through the upper leg and hip for enhanced thrust, or power. Indeed, more than one biomechanics analyst commented at the time that the long rear cannons of Majestic Light and his son Wavering Monarch were reminiscent of Dr. Fager, whose overall composition may have left him a bit of an outlier among the population during his lifetime, and therefore may have impacted his fortunes.

Hold that thought.

When we compared the measurements of the tail-male descendants of Wavering Monarch that have long been identified as mostly inheritable in both Thoroughbreds and the overall animal species, we found that the long rear cannon was virtually identical in Majestic Light, Maria’s Mon and Super Saver, but the others were closer to that of Raise a Native.

What spurred our research further was when we started to compare the entire Super Saver tail-male line to how the North American stallion gene pool has evolved physically since the 1970s. To do this we employed a computerized model that points out how a particular stallion resembles other stallions in overall “size and scope.” The program identifies clusters of neighbors, so to speak, much in the way thousands of small towns in Europe, for example, developed as remnants of medieval society. In almost all cases generations of neighbors intermarried and came to be similar to each other in appearance if not also group-think.

What this program gives us is a snapshot into which cluster a stallion “fits”–i.e., is he likely to be consistent in siring quality given the proven sires in that cluster similar to him physically. We chose four eras in which to examine this data.

  • Group 1: 850 stallions who were born from in the second half of the 20th Century and who went to stud prior to 2000;
  • Group 2: Group 1 plus those who went to stud in the years between 2000 and 2015;
  • Group 3: Group 2 plus those who retired between 2016 and 2020, minus abject failures;
  • Leading Sires: Group 3 edited to 250 stallions who had achieved major status since the 1960s.

The results are quite interesting. For example, Raise a Native consistently came up in each group as most similar to Roberto and Affirmed, which indicates that these three would have been successful at stud no matter when they went to stud. As it turned out, Majestic Light has Roberto, Affirmed and Red Ransom in his clusters along with his son Wavering Monarch. The latter numbered his sire as a neighbor but only among the smaller group of leading sires; among the other groups he was closer to Quiet American and his sire Fappiano–two substantial individuals with genetic connections to the aforementioned Dr. Fager.

The line took a completely different turn through Maria’s Mon who most often comes closest to Lemon Drop Kid, Forestry and Broad Brush, while his son Monarchos is almost a throwback numbering Roberto, Red Ransom, Affirmed and Majestic Light in his clusters. As for Super Saver’s sons Runhappy and Competitive Edge, we can only point to Afleet as showing more than once in their clusters.

Super Saver? Remember we told you to hold that thought about Dr. Fager? That’s because we ran him through the same program and found that starting with the Group 2 stallions, he and Super Saver came up as close to Scat Daddy, Empire Maker and Kitten’s Joy. This gives us a hint if Super Saver is repatriated that mares by those stallions might make useful mates. But it also gives us an indication that Dr. Fager may have “fit in” better in the 21st Century than he did in the 20th.

In this case, it certainly appears to make a difference how they carry on.

Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached at bbfq@earthlink.net.

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Body & Soul: How Quickly the Tide Turns…

Those of us who grew up in New York City in the 1950s and 1960s were not only blessed with some extraordinary major league teams and athletes, as well as more than enough superior racehorses, but were also lucky that so many of the radio and television play-by-play announcers were among the greatest of all time–ranging from Vin Scully in Brooklyn to Mel Allen in the Bronx to Fred Capossela at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga.

But the voice that sticks in our mind is that of the man who called the Knick games (Knickerbockers to us luddites): Later a legend in Hawaii, his name was Les Keiter and he kept your interest even in runaways until in some games one team would go on a streak into which he would exclaim, “How quickly the tide turns in basketball!”

Well, dear reader, keep that line in mind because when it comes to stallions whose first foals are yearlings, we have a crowd that has come in on a strong tide that has carried a select group of potentially “big fish” for buyers to consider starting with the upcoming yearling sales.

More specifically we refer to the Freshmen stallions whose offspring would be most likely in demand. We have determined that there will be 27 of them, most of whom stand in Kentucky, and of those 20–or 74%–represent only three sire lines: A.P. Indy, Fappiano and Smart Strike. We have checked our data for the past decade and found that only the Freshman crop of 2010 was close to being as concentrated with specific gene pools with A.P. Indy, Distorted Humor and Storm Cat accounting for 40% of 46 in the base group.

For the purposes of this report, we have grouped together stallions which we have analyzed biomechanically as well as a few that are not in our database yet have enough foals and credibility in their regions to indicate they will have followings. In any case there are only a few of the latter and are not likely to tip the scales dramatically when it comes to the attending Phenotype Targets.

Representing the A.P. Indy line are Malibu Moon’s sons Mr. Z, Gormley and Stanford; Pulpit’s sons American Freedom and Lord Nelson; Tapit’s sons Cupid, Divining Rod and Mohaymen; and Greenpointcrusader, by Bernardini.

From the Fappiano line we have Candy Ride (Arg)’s sons Gun Runner, Unified and Mastery; Unbridled’s Song’s sons Arrogate (deceased) and Bird Song; and from the Empire Maker branch Classic Empire and Midnight Storm, both by Pioneerof the Nile.

We chose Smart Strike as a foundation sire because he has come on strongly through his son Curlin, who has Connect, Keen Ice and Union Jackson in this crop; in addition, Smart Strike now has Lookin At Lucky, whose son Madefromlucky is the first one by that suddenly desirable sire to get a chance at stud.

Let us clarify a few things here. First, we are not necessarily wedded to the concept of sire lines that remain viable as definitive expressions of the aptitudes of a line’s namesake over a long period of time. We have seen so many physical variations within lines over the years that we tend to keep an eyebrow arched when it comes to evaluating whether such a progenitor’s descendants fit a given pattern. In our world that pattern is loosely defined by similarity in Phenotype.

A Phenotype is loosely defined as any characteristic (structural, physiological, or behavioral) which has been determined by its genotype (genetic code) and environment (competitive racing).

Three Phenotype charts, which we have utilized before, illustrate how members of a peer group might resemble each other phenotypically. They are color-coded to identify the sire of each horse, and those sires are also in the group. Caveat: Not every one of the 20 stallions we have mentioned above is depicted on the charts but as we indicated the ones which are not there are not going to significantly shift the patterns shown.

When we first looked at this crowd, we were struck by the impression that over the years what might not have been expected from sons of Fappiano, A.P. Indy and Smart Strike was that they would develop phenotypical tribes of their own. This was especially surprising when it came to Fappiano, who was as structurally balanced as one could hope for (he would be a dot in the center of his target) and yet remains influential today thanks to Cryptoclearance and Unbridled. These were two large individuals who may have appeared to be completely different to the naked eye–Cryptoclearance was rangy and somewhat light while Unbridled was solid and muscular. In fact, they were close to being the same phenotypically and relatively close to each other on the Fappiano chart.

Cryptoclearance went on to be a decent sire (Victory Gallop won the GI Belmont S.), but few would have predicted that one of his more modestly accomplished sons, Ride the Rails, would sire Candy Ride (Arg). Although we have no biomechanical data on Ride the Rails, we did inspect him in Argentina in the year Candy Ride was foaled and he seemed a combination of Fappiano and Cryptoclearance whereas Candy Ride favors his broodmare sire Candy Stripes, a son of Blushing Groom (Fr). All that said, this tribe expresses itself on the chart in a way that roughly corresponds to their racing aptitudes–powerful, but not overpowered to be considered one-dimensional speedballs.

Except for one representative of Malibu Moon, the A.P. Indy cluster is much more uniform in biomechanical expression–it’s a clear reflection of the fact that breeders wanted to bring more speed in the broodmares to him and his sons and the result is a virtual uniform phenotypical identity.

Smart Strike’s crowd may appear to be all over the place but in some respects it’s actually reflective of what a Phenotype target would look like for his sire Mr. Prospector and his more accomplished sons–some with almost unbalanced power and others more blended with stride factors. We find this intriguing and if Curlin and Lookin At Lucky can continue to throw out high-class colts, we might be on the verge of a line being solidified.

So, which Freshmen sires do we like? Not so fast, please. We have not been able to inspect a whole lot of this crowd because of the pandemic, and we will need to deploy our troops widely in the upcoming months to hone our algorithmic projections. In addition, there are some very nice prospects with first yearlings whose sires are by Into Mischief (Practical Joke), Ghostzapper (Shaman Ghost), Medaglia d’Oro (Astern {Aus}), Put It Back (Bal a Bali {Brz}), Quality Road (Blofeld, Hootenanny and Klimt) and War Front (War Correspondent).

Like Les Keiter, we’ll be watching for any shifts in the tide.

(Bob Fierro is a partner with Jay Kilgore and Frank Mitchell in DataTrack International, biomechanical consultants and developers of BreezeFigs. He can be reached a bbfq@earthlink.net).

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