Tag: Bob Baffert

TDN Sophomore Top 12: Final Wave of 9-Furlong Preps About to Crest

The plot thickens as the cadence quickens. Entries will be drawn Tuesday for this Saturday's GI Toyota Blue Grass S., and on Wednesday for the GI Santa Anita Derby and GII Wood Memorial S.

1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Muth's two-length score in the GI Arkansas Derby cemented his status as the divisional kingpin. Yes, there are colts who are faster based on speed figures. And yes, there are contenders who are more visually arresting in their stretch runs. But in terms of consistency, reliability, and the potential for even more improvement, there are no better bets at this stage of the season.

The gaming corporation that runs Churchill Downs has disinvited trainer Bob Baffert from the track's 150th GI Kentucky Derby bash, so it's unclear where this 'TDN Rising Star' might start next. A commitment to the GI Preakness S. would still be weeks away, but the connections of whoever ends up winning the May 4 Derby probably won't be going wild with visions of sweeping the Triple Crown knowing that a fresh, fit and dangerous Muth is waiting in the wings.

Muth adapted to two disruptive attempts in the early stages of the Arkansas Derby. Off as the 2.3-1 second choice, he was initially forwardly placed under Juan Hernandez, then got edged back off the action when a keyed-up 26-1 shot slipped through at the rail. Taking up a sweet stalking spot cornering onto the backstretch, Hernandez then had to decide what to do when 11-10 favorite Timberlake (Into Mischief) unexpectedly accelerated between rivals at the 6 1/2-furlong pole to seize the lead.

Muth was asked to shadow fellow 'Rising Star' Timberlake before Hernandez sensed that he could let that rival keep a half-length lead for most of the back straight. Seven-sixteenths out, Hernandez coaxed Muth to unwind, and once he hit his best stride at the quarter pole, Muth began opening up under a hand ride while Timberlake was being roused and not responding.

Through the lane, Muth kept the pesky 32-1 shot Just Steel (Justify) two lengths in arrears, and under the wire it was another 4 1/2 lengths back to the remaining stragglers.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone, who celebrated his third birthday Mar. 31, is the horse to beat in Saturday's Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

That doesn't necessarily mean he needs to drain the tank to win his final prep race before the Derby. But considering this Chad Brown trainee has been unraced since winning the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S., it is imperative for Sierra Leone to demonstrate numerical progression off a three-race Beyer Speed Figure arc of 71-91-90.

This $2.3-million FTSAUG sale-topper takes a long while to uncoil with his off-the-pace runs. But the scary thing is we haven't seen him come close to scraping the bottom of his stamina reserves just yet.

In the Risen Star, he accomplished quite a bit considering it was just his third career start: Sierra Leone handled shipping away from his home base, winning off an 11-week layoff, rating from midpack while equipped with blinkers for the first time, and racing under the lights on a sloppy, sealed, and eerily shadowy track.

The last six times Brown has started a horse in the Blue Grass, the results have been two wins, three close seconds, and a third.

3) FOREVER YOUNG (JPN) (c, Reel Steel {Jpn}–Forever Darling, by Congrats). O-Susumu Fujita; B-Northern Racing; T-Yoshito Yahagi. Sales History: ¥98,000,000 Ylg '22 JRHAJUL. Lifetime Record: 5-5-0-0, $2,049,451. Last start: WON Mar. 30 G2 UAE Derby.

The 5-for-5 Forever Young is a very plausible threat for the Kentucky Derby coming off a convincing win in Saturday's G2 UAE Derby at Meydan Racecourse over 1900 meters.

This Yoshito Yahagi trainee who sold for the equivalent of $720,603 at the JRHA Select Yearling and Foal sale was prompted for speed from an outer draw. Then, after opting for a four-wide go through the first turn, jockey Ryusei Sakai deftly eased him back to fifth on the straightaway, doing the best he could to keep the colt out of kickback (Forever Young was equipped a protective mask that was supposed to soften the blow of the dirt spray).

Forever Young again took the overland route around the final bend while smoothly shifting into consecutively higher gears, then drilled past the pacemaker with an outside bid before drawing away confidently.

The four dirt races on the G1 Dubai World Cup card at Meydan provided only a limited sample, but two of them were blowout wins by speed horses who rode the rail, suggesting that the ground-conceding run by Forever Young could have been against the grain of an inside-favoring track.

4) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, MGISW, 5-3-0-1, $1,703,850. Last start: WON Mar. 30 GI Curlin Florida Derby.

Fierceness needed a sharp effort in the GI Florida Derby to give him forward momentum heading to Louisville, and a gaudy, 13 1/4-length blowout that earned a 110 Beyer supplied the latest exclamation point in a five-race, Jekyll-and-Hyde career that has alternated scintillating wins with inexplicably flat performances.

We still don't have a good measuring stick for how Fierceness might respond when faced with the multiple in-race challenges that a race like the 20-horse Derby will present. This Repole Stable homebred by City of Light had everything his own way Saturday when establishing a measured tempo without having to fight hard for the lead or repulse any serious bids.

It's not Fierceness's fault the Florida Derby came up soft on paper. But it does mean that the Kentucky Derby will be this colt's first immersion into the deeper end of the divisional pool since he pasted the field in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile by 6 1/4 lengths.

At age two, Fierceness aired in his sloppy-track Saratoga debut by 11 1/4 lengths. He then looked lost when seventh as the odds-on fave in the similarly sloppy GI Champagne S. His Breeders' Cup victory was delivered with authority, yet his coming-out party at age three was an underwhelming third at 1-5 odds in the slow-paced GIII Holy Bull S.

If anything, Fierceness's cakewalk in the Florida Derby should erase any doubts about whether he had too taxing a final prep five weeks before the Run for the Roses. On Sunday morning, trainer Todd Pletcher reported the colt came out of the race “super.”

5) DETERMINISTIC (c, Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable, Langone, Ken, Duncker, C. Steven and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement. Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $222,750. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S.

The athletic but lightly seasoned Deterministic remains on target for Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. This 2-for-2 Christophe Clement trainee bulleted five-eighths Friday in 1:01.60 (1/5) at Payson Park while reeling in a workmate after starting two lengths back with his usual jockey, Joel Rosario, aboard.

“I thought it was nice for him to be in behind a horse,” Clement told Daily Racing Form's David Grening. “If he goes two turns, a mile and an eighth, most probably he will be behind horses. I kind of like in the morning to try and reproduce what you're going to do in the race.”

This colt scored at first asking over seven furlongs in an Aug. 12 MSW sprint at Saratoga (81 Beyer). He was subsequently sidelined with an ankle chip, but stamped himself as a Derby contender with an eye-catching, stalk-and-split win in the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct, a one-turn mile over a sloppy and sealed track (93 Beyer).

Deterministic is drawing more than the usual share of “wiseguy” attention considering he's only started twice and we're into April. But a big showing in New York vaults him into the mix for favoritism in Louisville.

6) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-2-0, $505,400. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S.

Dornoch, a $325,000 KEESEP son of Good Magic who is a full-brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, will still be in schooling mode for his final prep stakes Saturday at Keeneland.

Trainer Danny Gargan has been wanting to see if Dornoch is more effective in a race when targeting horses instead of setting the pace. But he didn't get to execute that strategy as planned in the GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream, because all the main speed horses scratched out of that race, and Dornoch once again got sent to the front. He wired the field that day, but Gargan wants to try again from a bit farther back in the Blue Grass.

The guess here is that Dornoch won't drop back quite as far as rival Sierra Leone. But with deadline for this column coming before entries are drawn, we don't know for sure which and how many early speed types will be setting the table ahead of both of them.

Dornoch bested Sierra Leone by a nose in the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct. But that was five months ago over a muddy track that was heavily biased toward early speed. Dornoch forced the issue up front and Sierra Leone closed wide from well off the tailgate. Dornoch brushed the rail in upper stretch, but regained his best stride late to steal back the lead from Sierra Leone, who was also a touch unfocused through the lane.

7) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road–Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $500,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

Track Phantom's fourth in the GII Louisiana Derby was subpar considering he was allowed to establish an unpressured pace before regressing late. But when you consider that he looked certain to be swallowed up by no fewer than five rivals off the turn yet didn't concede the lead until the sixteenth pole, that has to count for something.

This $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road wouldn't be the first speed-centric horse to win the Kentucky Derby off a so-so final prep race. Keep in mind that in a year where top prospects are light on racing experience, trainer Steve Asmussen has already given Track Phantom seven starts at a mile or longer, and he's been right up near the lead in every try.

In doing so, he's dealt with outermost posts in three of his last four starts, plus gate 11 of 12 on one other occasion. Track Phantom has been unfazed by having hyper horses to his inside, and he's also engaged in a couple of decent stretch fights. He's run well in the slop (twice second, beaten half a length each time), and he's won around two turns at Churchill, which is always encouraging to see.

Track Phantom was among the first Derby candidates to ship into Churchill last Thursday, and his stock is likely to quietly rise over the course of the next month.

8) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

This son of Frosted out of an Indian Charlie mare earned 'TDN Rising Star' honors in his Jan. 20 debut over 6 1/2 furlongs by splitting horses early, pegging straight for the lead, and setting a brisk tempo before brushing off three spent rivals at the quarter pole. His winning margin was 7 1/2 easy lengths (93 Beyer).

Six horses have now run back out of that Santa Anita MSW, and they are a collective 1-for-8 in all subsequent starts, with the lone winner running a 79 Beyer.

The better measuring stick might be Maymun's Feb. 11 allowance try over a mile in which he brushed a rival at the break, then sideswiped stablemate and second-favorite Imagination (Into Mischief) while bearing out into the first turn.

After a slower second-quarter split, Imagination engaged Maymun from the outside and they ratcheted up the cadence from the three-eighths pole to the wire before Maymun wrested Imagination into submission through a final eighth in :12.83 (89 Beyer). The top two were 10 1/2 lengths clear of the three also-rans.

Imagination showed he was no slouch be rebounding to capture the Mar. 3 GII San Felipe S.

The two could hook up again in Saturday's Santa Anita Derby, where trainer Bob Baffert is expected to enter at least two stablemates.

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution–Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $575,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

The 97-Beyer winner of the Louisiana Derby is scheduled for four workouts prior to the Kentucky Derby, trainer Brad Cox told the 'TDN Writers' Room' podcast last week.

Cox mentioned that this Constitution colt brushed the gate and thus didn't jump all that well in the Louisiana Derby. Even though Catching Freedom is an established closer, it was not the game plan for him to be so far back, Cox added.

Flavien Prat made the most of an improvised trip, waiting patiently behind a moderate pace at the rear of the field until 2 1/2 furlongs out before circling with a 12-wide bid in upper stretch that Catching Freedom sustained over the length of the long Fair Grounds home straight.

“He's not a big horse. He's medium-sized. He's a good mover,” Cox said. “He puts a good bit into his gallops. His works have just been average. His first work back will be a pretty basic work. We may even take him by himself. We're not looking to do much with him. But then the three [works] leading up [to the Derby] we'll ask him for a little bit more.”

10) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,050,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $256,800. Last start: WON Mar. 3 San Felipe S.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt has never been worse than second from five starts. He appears to be in the mix for Saturday's Santa Anita Derby for trainer Bob Baffert.

In the San Felipe S., Imagination got clipped from behind, then rushed to engage stablemate Wine Me Up (Vino Rosso). The two locked into a prolonged battle around the far turn and through the home straight, with Imagination gamely prevailing by a head (96 Beyer).

As mentioned above in Maymun's write-up, Imagination was also impeded around the first turn two starts ago in a Santa Anita allowance, yet he didn't back down in that race either. He finished second, beaten a neck, after briefly snatching the lead on three distinct occasions in the stretch.

11) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-3-1-0, $1,173,100. Last start: 4th Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

Timberlake's fourth-place try in the Arkansas Derby knocked him down a few pegs on the sophomore totem pole, but it didn't get him voted off the Top 12 island just yet, because the effort might have been an aberration.

In last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Timberlake never settled in the early stages and it cost him the race. This $350,000 KEESEP son of Into Mischief seemed to have rectified that issue when he rated much more willingly in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. But on Saturday at Oaklawn, he was back to his old tricks, and Flavien Prat believed it was best to just let him go rather than waste energy fighting the colt's headstrong ways.

“He was getting very aggressive, so I kind of let him run,” Prat told FanDuel TV. “He settled down nicely on the backside, but he didn't have much run at the end.”

Considering he has the qualifying points and a pedigree that fuses speed with stamina, the Derby is still a realistic goal if trainer Brad Cox can figure out how to get a more efficient effort out of Timberlake. Prat also rides No. 9-ranked Catching Freedom for Cox, meaning a Derby choice looms likely in the near future.

12) JUST STEEL (c, Justify–Irish Lights {Aus}, by Fastnet Rock {Aus}). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Sales History: $500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 11-2-4-1, $724,545. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GI Arkansas Derby.

How's this for a story line? At age 88, trainer D. Wayne Lukas will be saddling his 50th Derby horse overall and his first starter in the race since 2018 after Just Steel's 32-1 second-place try in the Arkansas Derby garnered enough qualifying points to get in.

Lukas has won the Derby four times, with Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995), Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic (1999).

Based solely on race records, the 2-for-11 Just Steel compares aptly to Charismatic, who was 2-for-12 entering his Derby 25 years ago and went off at a largely ignored 31-1 in the betting.

While Just Steel isn't as purely fast as some of the higher-ranked Derby aspirants on this list, he's a hard-trying type who can be envisioned as being in the thick of things late at a big price if he gets the right trip.

Just Steel's effort at Oaklawn was commendable. He was always near the pace despite going four wide on the first turn, and he maintained his run through the lane in persistent enough fashion to prove he knows how to finish.

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Muth Lays Siege To Arkansas, Delivers Win But No Derby Points

A pair of 'TDN Rising Stars' in Muth (Good Magic) and Timberlake (Into Mischief) squared off on an overcast but warm Saturday afternoon at Oaklawn Park to contest the 88th running of the GI Arkansas Derby.

What the race turned out to be was a strong statement issued by Muth, as Zedan Racing's colt kicked for home, won by two lengths and collected the purse money. Of course–since the 3-year-old is a trainee in Bob Baffert's care–he will not receive his 100 Kentucky Derby points.

This was the Hall of Fame trainer's fifth Arkansas Derby win–with the last coming when he won both halves of the split Derby with Nadal (Blame) and Charlatan (Speightstown) during Covid in 2020.

Muth's road to Oaklawn started when he broke his maiden impressively by 8 3/4 lenghts at first asking last June at Santa Anita. That effort earned him a 'Rising Star' badge. However, in his next start the $2 million OBS March grad took on fellow 'Star' and stablemate Prince of Monoco (Speightstown), and finished as the runner-up by 4 1/4 lengths in the GIII Best Pal S. at Del Mar in mid-August.

Baffert scratched him from running in the GI Hopeful S. at Saratoga because he thought his colt needed more recovery time after his race at the seaside oval. Back at 'The Great Race Place', the colt stretched out to two turns successfully when he won by 3 3/4 lengths in the GI American Pharoah S. in early October, and then was second over the same surface in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile when he could not catch champion 2-year-old Fierceness (City of Light).

Muth in the early jumps | Coady Photography

After a two-month break, Muth returned to the Arcadia races Jan. 6 and took home the seven-furlong GII San Vicente S. Over the next month, as Baffert weighed his options for where to go next, he contemplated shipping the 3-year-old to Hot Springs for the GII Rebel S. However, a final workout shelved the trip and the trainer opted to wait for a potential shot at the Arkansas Derby.

Made the 8-5 morning-line favorite and saddled on behalf of Baffert by Rodolphe Brisset, Muth went off as the 2-1 second choice here with Timberlake garnering 1-1 favoritism. At the break, it was Time for Truth (Omaha Beach) who sped to the lead past the grandstand, but Muth was quickly into stride and tracked just to the outside of the early pacesetter into the first turn.

Suddenly at the top of the backstretch Timberlake shot between the two frontrunners, but Muth responded quickly and went with his rival. Posting fractions of :23.43 for the first quarter mile and :47.46 for the half-mile, it was the son of Good Magic who gained the upper hand around the far turn, which signaled that Timberlake was in trouble. Muth chopped up the ground down the lane and scampered home over Just Steel, who ran a game race in defeat followed by Mystik Dan.

“He got away and then he was in a good spot,” said Baffert. “The track–speed really wasn't playing well today–but he was in a good spot there. Down the backside, when I saw Timberlake sneak up in there, I thought maybe he was going to control the race from there because I figured he was the horse to beat. But Muth, he's just … the only that beat him was Fierceness and we saw what he did today (winning the Florida Derby). I'm just happy for everybody. It (Arkansas Derby) is very important. It's a very prestigious race, winning that. You know how we feel about Oaklawn.”

Pedigree Notes:
With nine graded stakes winners to his credit, Good Magic's other Grade I stakes winners include Blazing Sevens and last year's Kentucky Derby hero Mage. Muth, who tied an OBS sale record when he was purchased by Amr Zedan after he breezed during the under tack show going a furlong in :9 3/5, is the first foal out of Don Alberto homebred Hoppa (Uncle Mo). She RNA'd for $1.9 million at the Fasig-Tipton Fall Mixed Sale back in November. Hoppa is responsible for a 2-year-old filly by Violence, who went to Rigney Racing for $385,000 at the Keeneland September Sale, and a yearling filly by Tacitus. She was bred back to Good Magic this term.

Saturday, Oaklawn Park
ARKANSAS DERBY-GI, $1,500,000, Oaklawn, 3-30, 3yo, 1 1/8m, 1:49.54, ft.
1–MUTH, 124, c, 3, by Good Magic
                1st Dam: Hoppa, by Uncle Mo
                2nd Dam: Handoverthecat, by Tale of the Cat
                3rd Dam: Frayne, by Red Ransom
($190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR). O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Juan J. Hernandez. $787,500. Lifetime Record: 6-4-2-0, $1,504,100. Werk Nick Rating: A++. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Just Steel, 124, c, 3, Justify–Irish Lights (Aus), by Fastnet Rock (Aus). 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. ($500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP). O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. $262,500.
3–Mystik Dan, 124, c, 3, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John. 1ST G1 BLACK TYPE. O-Lance Gasaway, 4 G racing LLC, and Valley View Farm LLC; B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. $131,250.
Margins: 2, 4 1/4, HF. Odds: 2.30, 32.50, 4.00.
Also Ran: Timberlake, Informed Patriot, Time for Truth, Imperial Gun, Liberal Arts, Will Take It, Dimatic.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

The post Muth Lays Siege To Arkansas, Delivers Win But No Derby Points appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The Two Towers Of Graded Stakes, Oaklawn And Gulfstream, Align Saturday

If you do not happen to be a Lord of the Rings devotee, then as a horse racing fan you might assume that Gandalf, Frodo, Saruman and Sauron were just names some eccentric owners concocted to toy with The Jockey Club.

Well, for true disciples of Tolkein, you understand the 'Two Towers' reference is a major theme in the trilogy, but for our purposes it simply denotes coverage.

This Saturday, both Oaklawn Park and Gulfstream Park are those poles of power when it comes to authoring graded stakes. Their cards feature Kentucky Derby and Oaks points races.

So, get your palantir ready–alright, alright–here is the slate for Saturday.

 

The Eye of Timberlake

The GI Arkansas Derby offers 100 Derby points to the winner at Oaklawn as the town of Hot Springs will be invaded by horse enthusiasts who are keen to watch a pair of 'TDN Rising Stars' do battle.

Timberlake (Into Mischief) earned that merit badge at second asking as a 2-year-old. Though he was fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, the Brad Cox trainee certainly came out of the break to put on a show in last month's GII Rebel S. The WinStar and Siena-owned colt has the Beyer figures to prove he belongs among the top contenders for the first Saturday in May.

“I really like the timing of the Arkansas Derby to the Kentucky Derby,” said Cox. “Obviously, he has the experience there now after winning the Rebel. I kind of thought the Rebel was the spot when we were getting started this winter. That worked out well and it leads nicely to the Arkansas Derby.”

Muth | Benoit

Opposing him are some other strong candidates like the winner of the GIII Southwest S. Mystik Dan (Goldencents), as well as Liberal Arts (Arrogate) and Time for Truth (Omaha Beach), but Timberlake's main rival is Zedan Racing's Muth (Good Magic). The $2-million 2023 OBS March topper is the latest shipper to Oaklawn for trainer Bob Baffert. Though his connections cannot collect Derby points, his front-running speed makes him a threat. The 3-year-old began his career with a 'Rising Star'-effort at Santa Anita back in June. After running second to Fierceness (City of Light) in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he cut back to take the GII San Vincente S. in early January.

The road to the GI Kentucky Oaks travels down Central Avenue and through the GII Fantasy S. The top three finishers from the GIII Honeybee S. return in Lemon Muffin (Collected), Tapit Jenallie (Tapit) and West Omaha (West Coast), but there are some true 'x-factors' drawn. One of them is Thorpedo Anna (Fast Anna), who was last seen as the runner-up in the GII Golden Rod S. at Churchill Downs in November. Also making the Fantasy gate are the top two runners from the Sunland Park Oaks–undefeated Recharge (Gun Runner) and Candy Aisle (Gun Runner).

One other graded race on Saturday in Hot Springs is the GIII Oaklawn Mile.

 

Fierceness In His Voice

Coming into the GI Curlin Florida Derby, champion 2-year-old colt and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness is looking to get back to the winner's circle after running third in his only start this year. Owned by Repole Stable, the Todd Pletcher trainee is going to get another crack at the horse that won the GIII Holy Bull S. Feb. 3, Hades (Awesome Slew).

Fierceness | Ryan Thompson

“Normally I'd be afraid of the outside post but Forte won from the 11 last year so you can overcome that,” said Pletcher. “Everybody knows Gulfstream two-turn races are tricky and I think that's why the start is so important, getting away cleanly. I think what happens in a lot of these two-turn races is the jockeys are so conscious of having to get to the first turn in good position that it can get a little rough leaving the gate sometimes. … The horse gives you a lot of confidence watching him breeze. It seems like he's in really good form, so we're expecting a good performance from him.”

Among the other challengers who are chasing the 100-point Churchill Downs offering is another 'Rising Star'. Conquest Warrior (City of Light) garnered honors from the paper when he won by five lengths going nine furlongs against optional claimers in Hallandale Mar. 1.

“I feel good,” said Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey about Conquest Warrior. “We've had two good races here and I still have a pretty fresh horse. He's trained good over it. He's had a race going a mile and an eighth here, which he handled, obviously, very easily. He came out of it good. I don't think we took anything out of him.”

In the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks–the local 100-point Kentucky Oaks feeder–'TDN Rising Star' Ways and Means (Practical Joke) gets back on track for trainer Chad Brown. The Klaravich homebred debuted a winner by 12 3/4 lengths at Saratoga last summer and was last seen running second in the GI Spinaway S. upstate.

Standing in her way is the heroine of the GII Davona Dale S., Fiona's Magic (St Patrick's Day), and Power Squeeze (Union Rags), who returns to South Florida after raiding the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs.

The Gulfstream Park undercard has three other graded races as part of the program, including the GII Pan American S., the GIII Ghostzapper S. and the GIII Orchid S.

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TDN Sophomore Top 12: Five Contenders in Action This Saturday

We're approaching the five-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, but not all contenders on this week's list are aiming for the first Saturday in May. This coming weekend's nine-furlong stakes at Oaklawn and Gulfstream have the potential to usher in a shake-up within the rankings, which have remained relatively stable as winter edges into spring.

1) MUTH (c, Good Magic–Hoppa, by Uncle Mo) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $190,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $2,000,000 2yo '23 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-2-0, $716,600. Last start: WON Jan. 6 GII San Vicente S.

With stablemate and fellow 'TDN Rising Star' Nysos (Nyquist) out of training for at least 30 days, Muth inherits the top spot on the Sophomore Top 12 despite not having raced since Jan. 6.

This 3-for-5 Good Magic colt drew post seven for Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby as the 8-5 morning-line favorite.

Muth is ineligible for the Kentucky Derby because of Churchill Downs's corporate ban on Bob Baffert's trainees. So it's possible Baffert is sizing up a subsequent start for him in the GI Preakness S. May 18.

The athletic Muth has a no-drama way of going about his tasks, and that businesslike efficiency appears poised to bloom into substantial class. With four total races at age two that included two routes and a Grade I win in the American Pharoah S., Baffert opted to sharpen this colt's speed by starting 2024 him in the seven-furlong GIII San Vicente S., a race that Muth commanded by stalking two pacemakers before breaking away at will (90 Beyer Speed Figure).

Baffert has won the Arkansas Derby four times. Favorites crossed the finish wire first in that race for five straight runnings, from 2017 through split divisions in 2020. But the chalk has gone down in defeat in each of the last three editions.

2) SIERRA LEONE (c, Gun Runner–Heavenly Love, by Malibu Moon) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Mrs John Magnier, Michael B Tabor, Derrick Smith Westerberg, Rocket Ship Racing LLC & Peter M Brant; B-Debby M Oxley (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $2,300,000 Ylg '22 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $336,750. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S.

With two wins and a second-place loss by only a nose, plus a locomotive-like ability to close ground when it counts, Sierra Leone's form doesn't need much validation from the horses left in his wake.

Still, the win by this 'TDN Rising Star' in the Feb. 17 GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds now looks even better after Saturday's one-two finish in the GII Louisiana Derby by the colts who ran third and fifth behind Sierra Leone last month in New Orleans.

This $2.3-million FTSAUG sale-topper will go next in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland, meaning that if he exits that final Derby prep in decent order, this Chad Brown trainee will have three straight races at nine furlongs prior to attempting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

That experience over a distance of ground might mitigate concerns about only having four lifetime starts before the Derby.

3) FIERCENESS (c, City of Light–Nonna Bella, by Stay Thirsty) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Repole Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 4-2-0-1, $1,127,250. Last start: 3rd Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S.

You can expect juvenile champ and 'TDN Rising Star' Fierceness to go off quite a bit lower than his 8-5 morning-line ranking in Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby. He drew post 10 in an 11-horse field that lured just one other colt currently ranked within TDN's Sophomore Top 12.

The GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile victor is in regroup mode for start number two of 2024. He drew a very soft field for the Feb. 3 GIII Holy Bull S. Accordingly, the betting public hammered him to 1-5 odds, but Fierceness came up flat.

By way of a possible excuse, trainer Todd Pletcher had referenced bumping at the break that caused jockey John Velazquez to push harder on the colt than they would have liked to in an attempt to obtain good early positioning. But still, a colt of Fierceness's perceived caliber should have finished up a lot more powerfully considering the lullaby tempo of the Holy Bull's two opening quarter-miles, which were clocked in :25.03 and :25.50.

A performance on Saturday that resembles anything close to the one uncorked by Fierceness when he trounced the Juvenile field by 6 1/4 lengths en route to a 105 Beyer victory would re-establish his presence as the Kentucky Derby favorite.

This Repole Stable homebred had checked a lot of boxes on that first weekend of November by flashing tactical speed while in hand from the gate, willingly pressing a pacemaker, displaying good responsiveness when encouraged to quicken, and fluidly torqueing into a higher gear through the stretch before smoothly galloping out well ahead of everyone else.

Dornoch | Nicole Thomas

4) DORNOCH (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-West Paces Racing LLC, R A Hill Stable, Belmar Racing and Breeding LLC, Two Eight Racing LLC & Pine Racing Stables; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Danny Gargan. Sales history: $325,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-2-0, $505,400. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GII Coolmore Fountain of Youth S.

The anticipated rematch of Dornoch and Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass S. will end up being the highest-profile rivalry of the Derby prep campaign. In a season that has been hallmarked by shallow qualifying stakes with little horse-vs.-horse intrigue, here's hoping that showdown ends up being worth the wait.

Those two last met in the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S. at Aqueduct. Racing on a sealed, muddy track that favored early speed, Dornoch outgunned five rivals for the lead, took pressure from a 27-1 shot, swatted back bids from fresh challengers on the far turn, then brushed the rail and re-surged to steal the lead late from Sierra Leone, who had taken the overland route from last against the grain of the bias. Dornoch's winning margin was a nose.

Each has since had one subsequent start at age three, with Sierra Leone annexing the Risen Star S. as the 5-2 favorite and Dornoch winning at 1-5 odds in a scratch-reduced GII Fountain of Youth S.

That cakewalk win at Gulfstream for this son of Good Magic didn't tell us much about Dornoch's forward progression. But trainer Danny Gargan has said he's liked what he's seen in two breezes since that race, and in choosing the Blue Grass he is underscoring that he's not ducking anyone along the way to the Derby in his hometown of Louisville.

5) DETERMINISTIC (c, Liam's Map–Giulio's Jewel, by Speightstown) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-St. Elias Stable, Langone, Ken, Duncker, C. Steven and Vicarage Stable; B-Hinkle Farms (KY); T-Christophe Clement. Sales history: $625,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $222,750. Last start: WON Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S.

Despite being one of the lightest-raced among the Top 12 contenders, the 2-for-2 Deterministic rates highly in terms of the anticipatory buzz about his next start and projections about how he might fare as a Triple Crown contender.

After winning at first asking in an Aug. 12 MSW sprint at Saratoga, Deterministic was sidelined with an ankle chip that kept him out of action until the Mar. 2 GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct.

Trainer Christophe Clement had this $625,000 KEESEP colt primed to fire off the nearly seven-month layoff, and Deterministic stalked willingly under Joel Rosario prior to tipping out and splitting horses with authority in the stretch over a sealed and sloppy one-turn mile.

The visually impressive win garnered a 93 Beyer, a boost of 12 points.

The Apr. 6 GII Wood Memorial S. is next.

6) CONQUEST WARRIOR (c, City of Light–Tea Time, by Pulpit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Courtlandt Farms (Donald Adam); B-Betz/B&K Canetti/J.Betz/CoCo Equine/D.J. Stables (KY); T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,000,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $96,000. Last start: WON Mar. 1 Gulfstream AOC.

Although gate nine is not a desirable draw for nine-furlong races at Gulfstream (2-for-105 over the past 15 years according to Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch), the wide post is probably not going to be as big of an issue for 'TDN Rising Star' Conquest Warrior, who figures to be backed off the Florida Derby pace with speed threats drawn to his inside and outside.

This stout-framed, long-striding $1-million KEESEP closer will benefit from being able to sit back and zero in on targets. But he's going to need a less “busy” ride from jockey Jose Ortiz, who in a Mar. 1 allowance at Gulfstream over the same distance rated Conquest Warrior off heels at the seven-furlong pole, sent him back up to re-engage six furlongs out, came through on the inside, then sliced outside for a winning run to reel in a tiring target.

There was a fair amount of lateral and back-and-forth repositioning going on in that race, and Conquest Warrior got away with all that maneuvering because he was 1-5 in the betting against five rivals who weren't Triple Crown-caliber competition.

Conquest Warrior's previous race, a one-turn-mile maiden win Jan. 13, was also a bit of an adventure. He got sandwiched at the break, shuffled to last, then repeatedly ran into traffic before bursting through for a dramatic half-length score under Ortiz.

Trainer Shug McGuaghey will send out the second-favorite for the Florida Derby knowing Conquest Warrior is 2-for-2 over the Gulfstream surface, that he's already won at 1 1/8 miles, and that he should get honest fractions in front of him while he unwinds from midpack or farther back.

7) MAYMUN (c, Frosted–Handwoven, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Vision Racing & Sales LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP; $900,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $79,200. Last start: WON Feb. 11 Santa Anita AOC.

The 2-for-2 'TDN Rising Star' Maymun will start next in the Apr. 6 GI Santa Anita Derby, according to a confirmation by trainer Bob Baffert first published by Horse Racing Nation on Friday.

Maymun blitzed home first by 7 1/2 lengths in his Jan. 20 debut over 6 1/2 furlongs at Santa Anita (93 Beyer), then scored a one-mile allowance victory (89 Beyer) there Feb. 11 despite sideswiping a stablemate on the first turn.

After both colts recovered without incident, Maymun launched a spirited bid three-eighths from the wire in tandem with Imagination (Into Mischief). But he had to exert quite a bit of effort in putting away his stubborn stablemate, who seized the lead three times from the quarter to the sixteenth poles before Maymun clawed back a half-length deficit inside the final 100 yards.

Imagination came back to win the Mar. 3 GII San Felipe S. with a 96 Beyer.

8) TIMBERLAKE (c, Into Mischief–Pin Up (Ire), by Lookin At Lucky) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Siena Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC; B-St. Elias Stables, LLC (KY); T-Brad H. Cox. Sales history: $350,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $1,094,350. Last start: WON Feb. 24 GII Rebel S.

Trainer Brad Cox has won the Arkansas Derby with non-favorites in each of the last two runnings, with Cyberknife at 5-1 odds in 2022 and Angel of Empire at 9-2 last season.

This year, he's got 'TDN Rising Star' Timberlake who will start from post two as the 9-5 second choice on the morning line behind the favored Muth.

Timberlake has plateaued 93 Beyers in three straight starts spanning nearly six months. Those races were a one-turn-mile win in the sloppy-surfaced GI Champagne S., a rank-on-the-first-turn fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, then a much more settled win in the Feb. 24 GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn.

His stretch run in the Rebel wasn't flawless–Timberlake stalled momentarily, but re-engaged once roused. It was a decent enough launch point to show how he has the potential to be a legit divisional threat with some polishing.

“I like the timing,” Cox said of the Oaklawn race. “Obviously, he has the experience there now, that one run under him. I kind of thought the Rebel was the spot when we were getting started. At the beginning of the winter, we thought the Rebel was the spot. It worked out.”

Catching Freedom | Hodges Photography

9) CATCHING FREEDOM (c, Constitution-Catch My Drift, by Pioneerof the Nile) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-WinStar Farm (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $877,350. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby.

Catching Freedom won't be heading to Louisville as one of the favorites. But his last-to-first win in Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby stamped him as a capable stayer. He'll be the type of colt who doesn't rank as an A-list powerhouse, but you'll probably end up agonizing over whether to include him in your exotic wagers, because he figures to be firing from off the tailgate.

At Fair Grounds, Flavien Prat waited patiently at the rear of the field until 2 1/2 furlongs out behind a moderate tempo, and because he didn't want to slow this Constitution colt's momentum, he let Catching Freedom fan 12 wide into the lane.

This $575,000 KEESEP grad chugged home in straight, grind-down fashion, executing his job willingly. But for the most part, he was passing horses who had already taken their best cracks at the leader.

Catching Freedom's 97 Beyer came back a little higher than I might have guessed based on the visual impression of the race. He gained ground in the stretch through a final furlong and a half timed in :18.78. In the five runnings since the Louisiana Derby got elongated to 1 3/16 miles, that's the second slowest fraction for the final three-sixteenths of the race.

“I didn't know what to make of it early on, being so far back and with not much pace,” said trainer Brad Cox. “But Flavien did a great job of letting him inch up. He needed pretty much the entire stretch to get there and I am very proud of the effort.”

10) MYSTIK DAN (c, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) O/B-Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing, LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Last start: WON Feb. 3 GIII Southwest S.

Mystik Dan improved his Beyer by a whopping 19 points and was geared down late while leading the way home through a final sixteenth clocked in a zippy :5.93 when he won the Feb. 3  GIII Southwest S. at 11-1 odds.

Are his 101 Beyer and the distinction of having run the fastest closing half-furlong among all 18 of this season's Derby points-awarding stakes at 1 1/16 miles the real deal? Or were those impressive metrics simply artifacts of Mystik Dan relishing a muddy, sealed Oaklawn surface that was playing quirkily?

We'll find out in Saturday's Arkansas Derby, where this homebred son of Goldencents for owners Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby and 4G Racing faces the difficult task of trying to outmuscle both the No. 1-ranked Muth and No. 8 Timberlake.

Trainer Kenny McPeek has expressed confidence all winter long about how this keen-minded colt has learned how to rate off the pace without the transition blunting Mystik Dan's natural speed.

Besides the Southwest romp by eight lengths, Mystik Dan's only other victory from five starts was a 5 1/2-furlong MSW win at Churchill back on Nov. 12 in which he wired the field by 7 3/4 lengths.

11) TRACK PHANTOM (c, Quality Road-Miss Sunset, by Into Mischief) O-L and N Racing LLC, Clark Brewster, Jerry Caroom & Breeze Easy LLC; B-Breeze Easy (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-2-1, $405,000. Last start: 4th in Mar. 23 GII Louisiana Derby

Track Phantom didn't have to be rushed from post 11 and he was allowed to dictate a moderate tempo in the Louisiana Derby. So in that respect, it's a bit disappointing that he faded to fourth in the stretch as the beaten 2-1 favorite and won't be heading to the Kentucky Derby with positive forward momentum.

But that doesn't mean he gets voted off the Top 12 island, either. Especially because this is a year that is shaping up as a Derby without too many established, credible early blazers to force or set the pace. With a little honing of his established speed-centric form in two-turn races, trainer Steve Asmussen could fine-tune this $500,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road into the type of dangerous Derby prospect who gets bold on the lead.

Also, consider that Track Phantom looked almost certain to be swallowed up by no fewer than five contenders ganging up behind him at the head of the lane on Saturday. I can't say for certain whether he definitively swatted them all back or if their bids just never materialized. But give this colt some credit for not ceding the lead until the sixteenth pole despite tiring under duress.

Asmussen told Daily Racing Form Sunday that after talking to jockey Joel Rosario, “we thought there was a little more there, and we're going to try a little French cup blinker.” He added that Track Phantom exited the race fine and will point for the Derby.

12) IMAGINATION (c, Into Mischief–Magical Feeling, by Empire Maker) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Dianne Bashor, Robert Masterson, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine Donovan & Tom Ryan; B-Peter Blum Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-3-0, $256,800. Last start: WON Mar. 3 San Felipe S.

Imagination got clipped from behind on the clubhouse turn of the GII San Felipe S., then rushed up to engage stablemate Wine Me Up (Vino Rosso). The two battled around the far turn and into the home straight, with Imagination prevailing by a head.

Since breaking his maiden in start number three on Jan. 1, this Bob Baffert trainee has now put together two sharp back-to-back routes races in which he has been knocked off balance early, then got locked into a prolonged tussle on the front end without backing down. Even when he lost by a neck to Maymun back on Feb. 11, that second-place try resonated as a punching-above-his-weight type of performance.

This $1.05-million KEESEP colt could resurface in the Santa Anita Derby, where Baffert is expected to have “at least two starters and potentially three,” as per Sunday's Santa Anita press notes.

The post TDN Sophomore Top 12: Five Contenders in Action This Saturday appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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