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Equibase Analysis: Improbable, Tom’s D’Etat Horses To Beat In Breeders’ Cup Classic

The 37th running of the Grade 1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic brings together a field which must be described as top notch, with the sum of their earnings totaling nearly the entire total of $31 million dollars in purse money to be shared over the two days of the Breeders' Cup World Championships.

Three-year-olds Tiz the Law and Authentic represent the younger set, with the former having won the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and Grade 1 Travers Stakes and the latter victorious in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, but both enter the Classic off runner-up efforts which were very good, but with no real excuses for not winning. That's one matchup fans will definitely have their eyes on.

The other big matchup will be the second meeting between Improbable and Tom's d'Etat, the first resulting in Tom's d'Etat winning by three-quarters of a length in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes in April. Since then, Improbable is undefeated in three races including the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes in his most recent start while Tom's d'Etat won the Grade 2 Stephen Foster Stakes before a stumbling break and third place finish in the Grade 1 Whitney Stakes.

Then there's Maximum Security, who has won three of four races this year including the Group 1 Saudi Cup Stakes. Maximum Security enters the Classic off a non-threatening runner-up finish behind Improbable.

In addition, Tacitus won the Grade 2 Suburban Stakes in July at the distance of the Classic and has managed only a second and third place finish since then. By My Standards finished second to Tom's d'Etat in the Foster then second behind Improbable in the Whitney and tries to turn the tables on those foes. Global Campaign won the Grade 1 Woodward Handicap in his most recent start and at the distance of the Classic and may be this good. Higher Power and Title Ready round out the field, with Higher Power winless in six straight races since capturing the Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes in the summer of 2019 and with Title Ready having finished fifth and third in his last two races against easier competition.

Main contenders: Even with the fantastic depth in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic, I think Improbable and Tom's d'Etat are the ones to beat and have the bulk of the probability to win. This assessment is based on not only how fast they've run, but their attitude about winning.

Tom's d'Etat won two graded stakes to close out his 2019 campaign including the Hagyard Fayette Stakes last fall at Keeneland That effort earned a 116 Equibase Speed Figure, the second best he had earned to that point in his career, with the best being 118 in the Alydar Stakes two months earlier. In his 2020 debut in April and even after five months off, Tom's d'Etat rallied from eighth to win the Oaklawn Mile Stakes over Improbable by three-quarters of a length with a 113 figure. In the Oaklawn Mile, Improbable had opened up a two length lead in the stretch and appeared to have victory in hand but Tom's d'Etat gained ground with every stride to win going away.

Two months later Tom's d'Etat won the Clark Stakes with a 116 figure and was on a pattern for significant improvement before a bad stumble at the start of the Whitney Stakes in August, resulting in a third place finish. Still, Tom's d'Etat improved to a 117 figure in the Whitney, quite impressive in my opinion. Whitney winner Improbable came right back to win the Awesome Again Stakes and runner-up By My Standards won the Alysheba Stakes, both flattering Tom's d'Etat. Particularly as Tom's d'Etat has relished returning off similar layoffs in the past, I think he can run just as he did in the Oaklawn Mile and post the mild upset in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic.

Improbable has become a different, better, horse since the addition of blinkers before last summer's Shared Belief Stakes. Going into that race, Improbable had won three of seven races but his two just prior to the Shared Belief were poor efforts when fifth in the Kentucky Derby and sixth in the Preakness Stakes. Since then, Improbable has won four of seven, but it's his most recent three efforts which were the most impressive. After returning from five months off and being defeated by Tom's d'Etat in the Oaklawn Mile Stakes, Improbable won the Gold Cup at Santa Anita in June (at the distance of the Classic) with a 116 which was the second best of his career.

Following up with wins in the Whitney and in the Awesome Again, both with career-best 120 figures, Improbable enters the Classic in the best form of his life. As impressive is the authoritative way in which Improbable has run in his last three races, each time opening up by many lengths with an eighth of a mile to go and holding that advantage to the wire while unchallenged. Granted, in the Oaklawn Mile he had opened up as well and was run down by Tom's d'Etat in the stretch but since then no other horse has worried Improbable in the late stages. Therefore if Tom's d'Etat can't repeat what he did in the Oaklawn Mile, Improbable is very likely to have a commanding lead early in the stretch and win his fourth straight grade 1 race.

About the rest: Lines of separation between most of the other eight contenders in this year's Breeders' Cup Classic are thin, but the line separating them from the top two contenders is not thin in my opinion. I'll take them in alphabetical order, starting with Authentic, whose results on the track match his name with five wins and two runner-up efforts in seven starts. Two of those came at, or very close to, this Classic distance, in the Kentucky Derby and in the Preakness Stakes. Authentic ran valiantly in both, winning the former and coming up a neck shy of Swiss Skydiver in the latter. However, he did not improve in terms of his speed figures, with both efforts resulting in 109 figures, the same as he earned winning the Haskell Stakes in July. I'm just not enamored with this pattern, particularly as I would expect a three year old to continue to improve in the fall. He's a very talented horse but in my opinion he's no match for either Improbable or Tom's d'Etat at this stage.

The same can be said for By My Standards, who has won four of six this year and finished second in the two others. Those two runner-up efforts came behind Improbable in the Whitney and behind Tom's d'Etat in the Foster. Although the figures earned in those races, 118 and 110, respectively, were better than the 109 figures Authentic earned in his last three races, I don't see By My Standards turning the tables on either Improbable or Tom's d'Etat in the Classic.

Global Campaign earned back-to-back 109 figures in the Monmouth Cup and in the Woodward Handicap and although the latter came at the distance of the Classic I don't see him moving up to the level needed to win. Additionally, Global Campaign won both races leading from start to finish with the exception that he was second with an eighth of a mile to go in the Monmouth Cup. In this year's Classic that “early” running style is shared by Authentic and possibly By My Standards as well as Maximum Security.

Maximum Security was no match for Improbable in the Awesome Again, and when winning the Pacific Classic Stakes and San Diego Handicap prior to that faced competition which, for the most part, would be overmatched in this race. He did earn a 118 figure in the Pacific Classic but 107 in the San Diego and the 113 he earned in the Awesome Again was more of a function how fast Improbable ran than the effort Maximum Security put forth. There's no doubt Maximum Security is one of the best horses in the country at this level, but perhaps not the best in this field.

Tiz the Law would be a top contender in this year's Classic if not for the fact that it appears he peaked when winning the Travers Stakes in August. After winning four straight graded stakes from February through August, with a strong pattern of improving figures (112, 113 and 115) through the Travers, Tiz the Law not only could not pass Authentic in the stretch in the Kentucky Derby, his 107 figure suggests he was not as fast in September as he was earlier in the year. Still, he's another horse in this year's Classic with no real knocks, winning six of eight races in his career and earning $2.6 million.

Tacitus (110 best figure) has run evenly in his last two races with 107 and 105 figures and doesn't appear as fast, or to have as much will to win, as many of the others. Higher Power earned a 113 figure winning the 2019 Pacific Classic but hasn't shown the same ability since and particularly as he has been beaten three to six lengths in his last three races, twice by Maximum Security, he appears a bit over his head here. Title Ready earned a career-best 114 figure in the Stymie Stakes when second 19 months ago and has one allowance win to his credit since. He's never run the Classic distance so far in his career.

Win contenders:
Tom's d'Etat
Improbable

You can get Ellis' full card detailed analysis and betting recommendations for all the races at Keeneland on Breeders' Cup Weekend (Friday 11/6 and Saturday 11/7), at Equibase.com

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Classic Notes: Tacitus Has ‘Got To Improve,’ Tagg Not Thrilled With Inside Post For Tiz The Law

Authentic, Improbable, Maximum Security – Bob Baffert's longtime assistants Jimmy Barnes and Peter Hutton had the stalls assigned to the Baffert team in Barn 62 ready for the arrival Tuesday of their six Breeders' Cup runners. Baffert's horses were part of the contingent shipped by plane from California.

Hollywood Gold Cup, Whitney and Awesome Again winner Improbable is the 5-2 morning-line favorite in the Classic and is the leader of Baffert's powerful trio of entrants, which includes Kentucky Derby winner Authentic and Saudi Cup and Pacific Classic winner Maximum Security.

This will be Baffert's 12th consecutive year with a starter in the Classic and the sixth time he has had more than one runner. In 2017 at Del Mar he saddled four horses in the Classic: Collected, who finished second; West Coast, third; Arrogate, fifth; Mubtaahij (eighth). Since his Classic debut with Silver Charm's runner-up finish in 1998, Baffert has had 23 starters in the race and has an in-the-money record of 3-4-2.

The Baffert caravan that Barnes and Hutton prepared for had Princess Noor, the 9-5 morning line favorite in the Juvenile Fillies, Gamine, the 7-5 morning line favorite in the Filly and Mare Sprint, and the 2yo colt Classier, who is 15-1 in the Juvenile.

By My Standards – Allied Racing Stable LLC's four-time Grade 2 winner By My Standards continued his march toward the $6 million Longines Classic from his base at Churchill Downs on Tuesday morning, galloping a mile with trainer Bret Calhoun observing.

The bay 4yo colt will attempt the 1¼m distance for only the second time, with his first try being on a very sloppy course in 2019's Kentucky Derby, checking in 12th. He is a son of a two-time Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner, Goldencents, who won or placed in G1 races from 6f to 9f, but was 17th in the Kentucky Derby when attempting 10f.

“I don't have any reservations about the distance at all with him,” Calhoun said. “The only worry you may have is that he isn't proven over the distance yet. To me, it looks like the ideal distance for him because he has high cruising speed and keeps running.”

Gabriel Saez, who has ridden him in 10 of 12 starts, will return for the mount. By My Standards' past four wins have been with Saez, while his only two losses this year have been when ridden by others.

“Gabe knows the horse extremely well,” Calhoun explained. “He has that confidence in him. Others have rode him well, but he is the most familiar with him and rides him with a lot of confidence. He has the inside track of knowing the horse.”

By My Standards will arrive at Keeneland on Wednesday morning after training at Churchill Downs. The $150,000 purchase has earned more than $1.7 million for his connections. A top-five finish would hoist him to the richest horse Calhoun has trained, eclipsing $1.8 million-earning Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint winner Chamberlain Bridge.

Global Campaign – Sagamore Farm LLC and WinStar Farm LLC's Global Campaign galloped 1¼m at Churchill Downs Tuesday morning in preparation for a planned start in Saturday's Classic.

“He'll gallop early in the morning [Wednesday] at Churchill, then ship around 8 o'clock to Keeneland,” trainer Stanley Hough said.

The 4yo son of Curlin has won six of nine starts during a career that has been frequently interrupted by foot issues. This year he has won three of four starts, including a victory in the Monmouth Cup and his first Grade I win in the Woodward at Saratoga in his two most recent starts.

“His last couple races brought him back to where I hoped he would be. We're still fighting all his little foot issues, but I believe he's going into it really well,” Hough said.

Higher Power – Hronis Racing's Higher Power galloped 1 1/2m at 6:30 Tuesday morning at Keeneland with Juan Leyva aboard for trainer John Sadler.
Sadler arrived in Lexington Monday night and Tuesday morning cast eyes on Higher Power in the flesh for the first time in 30 days.

“We took a different approach with him,” said Sadler of Higher Power, who will break from post six in Saturday's Classic when he tries to improve on his third-place finish of 2019. “I don't think he had flown cross country before and when he went to Miami (for the Pegasus World Cup Invitational), he was not comfortable.

“We were bringing Ollie's Candy here (for the Juddmonte Spinster) and she is going to be in the (Keeneland November Breeding Stock) sale (next week) and staying, so it just made sense to bring him in then and not take a chance on another cross-country flight. He has done well here with Juan Leyva, who is a rising star, taking care of him. His last two works have been very good.”

Sadler liked the six post for Higher Power, who is listed at 20-1 on the morning line and will be ridden by Flavien Prat.

“It is very good for him. I didn't want the one or the outside,” Sadler said. “He will get a stalking trip.”

Tacitus – Juddmonte Farms homebred Tacitus left Barn 60 on Thursday morning and proceeded to gallop a circuit of the Keeneland main track with trainer Bill Mott watching on his pony. The son of Tapit, sire of five Breeders' Cup champions, and 2014 Breeders' Cup Distaff alumna Close Hatches will break from the rail post with Jose Ortiz in the 10-horse Longines Breeders' Cup Classic field.

“He's good, he's fresh and he feels good,” Mott said. “He worked good here and he came out of that in good order. He galloped yesterday—went right back to the track with him—and galloped again today.

“He's got to improve because the competition is a little tougher this time,” he continued. “I think the race having a little pace in it will be to his benefit. They have a long run to the turn, so everyone should get a good spot.”

Having such a sterling pedigree, it would not be a surprise to have Tacitus join the stallion ranks next season, but plans are currently up in the air.

Ultimately, the decision resides with Prince Khalid Abdullah, whose pink and green colors have been in the Breeders' Cup winner's enclosure seven times. Mott, of course, would prefer to have the attractive gray 4yo back in his barn in 2021.

“I sure hope he (stays in training),” he said. “He's not a horse who had a big 2-year-old campaign or anything and is worn out. I think he's a horse that should be a good 5-year-old. Maybe he hasn't reached his peak yet.”

In 14 starts, Tacitus has finished in the top three 11 times, including four victories, three in Grade 2 company.

Title Ready – Charles Fipke's Title Ready continued to train at his Churchill Downs base Tuesday and will have another regular gallop Wednesday before making the hour-long van ride to Keeneland.

“All's good,” trainer Dallas Stewart said. “It's a tough race with really good horses in there. It's going to be tough, but we're excited and we'll what happens. If you want to survive in this business you have to take the big swings and go after the big purses.”

Tiz the Law – Sackatoga Stable's 3yo colt Tiz the Law continued his preparations for the $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic Tuesday morning with a 2m gallop under exercise rider Heather Smullen followed by a trip to the starting gate for some schooling.

The New York-bred from the first crop by Constitution, has won four of five starts this year, three of them Grade 1 races. His only setback came in his most recent start, the Sept. 5 Kentucky Derby (G1) when he ended up second, 1¼ lengths behind Authentic.

Though trainer Barclay Tagg would have preferred an outside post, Tiz the Law and jockey Manny Franco drew post two in the 10-horse Classic. Tagg acknowledged that he doesn't know for sure that the colt dislikes being on the inside – he has two wins from post 3 – but said the draw would force Franco to be aggressive when the gates open.

“I guess he's going to have to let him run away from there a little bit so he can get a position. I don't want a whole crowd on his outside,” Tagg said. “That's all we can do, let him run away from there like he did in the Florida Derby. Ideally, if Baffert's horses would team up up there on the front end; with a deal like that we could sit off them a couple of lengths and just be outside couple of lengths. That would work out great, I think. Who knows?”

Tiz the Law rolled up victories in the Florida Derby, the Belmont Stakes and the Travers prior to the Kentucky Derby. He was given time to recover from his effort in the Derby and did not run in the Preakness. Tagg shipped him to Keeneland on Oct. 18 and he has had his final two works over the track he will compete on Saturday afternoon. In Tagg's view, Tiz the Law is ready for his first test against older horses.

Tom's d'Etat – The famed TwinSpires are still serving as Tom's d'Etat's backdrop as the bay horse galloped at Churchill Downs Tuesday morning with plans to ship to Keeneland Wednesday afternoon.

After five seasons on the track and countless ups and downs during his career, the son of Smart Strike is slated to bring the curtain down on his racing days this weekend when he heads to the starting gate for the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic. Though trainer Al Stall Jr. readily admits emotions will be running high as he leads his veteran runner over for the last time, the Louisiana native says there is a fairytale ending on tap regardless where the 7yo horse finishes Saturday.

A stall with his name on it will be waiting for Tom's d'Etat at WinStar Farm as he is set to join its stallion roster for the 2021 season. Earning the right to stand at one of the leading breeding operations is an achievement for any horse but, given the injuries his charge has battled throughout his career en route to becoming a Grade 1 winner, Stall feels a particular level of pride in seeing Tom's d'Etat graduate to his second career with such honors.

“That might be the best part of the story is that he has a wonderful place to go to,” Stall said. “There won't be emotion like 'Oh we want the horse to stay around so we can make more money.' None of that. We're thrilled to death that he's got such a great place to go and (WinStar) does a wonderful job getting mares for their stallions. They have a clientele that goes from here to forever. When he leaves that Sunday morning for WinStar, win lose or draw, it will be a happy thing for everybody.”

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Baffert’s Lawyer: Drape’s `False’ Story `Debunked’

Bob Baffert’s attorney issued a statement Tuesday saying that New York Times reporter Joe Drape’s reporting in 2019 on Justify’s scopolamine positive was a “false story and narrative” which “were definitively debunked” in last week’s California Horse Racing Board hearing on the matter.

The statement from attorney W. Craig Robertson III reads, in full:

“On September 11, 2019, Joe Drape of the New York Times published an article concerning trainer Bob Baffert and Triple Crown-winning horse Justify. The article strongly and inaccurately suggested that Mr. Baffert had intentionally doped Justify with scopolamine in the 2018 Santa Anita Derby, and falsely stated that scopolamine was a performance-enhancing substance. Mr. Drape similarly implied that the California Horse Racing Board, which had investigated the facts surrounding Justify and determined that there had been no wrongdoing, was corrupt and covering up for Mr. Baffert’s alleged misconduct.

“Last week, Mr. Drape’s false story and narrative were definitively debunked. In a public hearing on the Justify case, the California Horse Racing Board, which now consists of members that are entirely different from the allegedly `corrupt’ ones in place in 2018, stipulated that the presence of scopolamine in Justify: (1) was the result of environmental contamination, specifically that Justify was inadvertently exposed to hay containing a naturally growing plant called jimsonweed, which contains scopolamine; and (2) there was no performance-enhancing effect on Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. Thus, it has now been conclusively and legally established that the entire premise of the (2019) New York Times story on Justify was false.

“Mr. Drape’s coverage of Mr. Baffert continues to be inaccurate in other significant respects. For example, recently he has repeatedly accused Mr. Baffert of medication violations in Arkansas and Kentucky involving “banned” substances when, in fact, each of those cases involve lawful, therapeutic medications. These representations are similarly false and must be corrected.”

On October 22, Drape wrote that Gamine had tested positive for a “banned substance” in the Times. Robertson responded at the time, “Betamethasone is a legal, commonly used anti-inflammatory medication. It is not a `banned substance.’ ”

Robertson’s Tuesday email to the media said that Baffert would be issuing his own statement Wednesday.

In August, the CHRB announced that the win by Justify in the 2018 running of the GI Santa Anita Derby would come under official administrative scrutiny by the organization, but that Baffert, the trainer of the eventual undefeated Triple Crown winner, would not have a CHRB complaint lodged against him “due to substantial evidence that the scopolamine resulted from environmental contamination from jimson weed.”

The CHRB has yet to issue a ruling following last week’s scopolamine hearing.

A now-controversial 2018 commission vote to exonerate Justify and Baffert was not publicly disclosed, and took place privately after a detailed investigation that substantiated the environmental contamination by jimsonweed. In roughly the same timeframe in 2018, the CHRB received positive post-race tests for scopolamine on five other horses from other barns, and the CHRB eventually treated them all as unintentional jimsonweed contaminations from ingesting tainted hay.

“This case was correctly decided by the CHRB in 2018. It was a final and binding decision. And nothing has changed since then, and you all should simply affirm that decision so that we can put this matter to bed once and for all,” said Robertson at last week’s hearing. “When that investigation was complete, there were two things that were clear, undisputed and undeniable. Number one, that this was a case of innocent environmental contamination from hay and it was not a case of any intentional administration of any drug or medication. And number two, that the trace levels of scopolamine…had no effect on the performance of these horses and no effect on the races.”

Drape revealed the scopolamine positive in a New York Times article September 11, 2019 in which he wrote, “Justify should not have run in the Derby, if the sport’s rules were followed” and suggested that the investigation had not been detailed at all.

“It decided, with little evidence,” he wrote, “that the positive test could have been a result of Justify’s eating contaminated food. The board voted unanimously to dismiss the case. In October, it changed the penalty for a scopolamine violation to the lesser penalty of a fine and possible suspension.”

Testimony at last Thursday’s hearing indicated that change in classification of scopolamine was already in the works long before Justify’s positive.

In the story on the hearing, the TDN’s T.D. Thornton wrote, “The CHRB, by its own regulation, follows the Association of Racing Commissioners International (ARCI) Uniform Classification Guidelines for Foreign Substances and Recommended Penalties when establishing model rules for drugs. The ARCI once classified scopolamine as a Class 3 drug (lower-number classifications are more severe). But in December 2016, the ARCI reclassified it to a lesser Class 4 offense.

“Arthur testified that the CHRB fully intended to follow the ARCI’s model rule that reclassified scopolamine (and other drugs that also changed classes). But since California’s Office of Administrative Law doesn’t allow the CHRB to change rules by automatically referencing another authority’s code, the racing agency has to go through a drawn-out process to make even minute changes such as drug reclassifications. So because of this bureaucratic backlog, scopolamine in 2018 was still technically Class 3 in California, even though Arthur and the CHRB considered it to match the ARCI’s newer Class 4 downgrade.

“Arthur explained how as the equine medical director, he has regulatory leeway to take into consideration mitigating circumstances, and that’s what he did when recommending no initial penalties for the scopolamine positives.”

“It is inherently unfair to hold somebody to a classification that is outdated because of regulatory inefficiency,” Arthur said at the hearing.

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Breeders’ Cup Presents The News Minute: Let The Handicapping Begin

With 184 entries, including 48 Breeders' Cup Challenge Series Win and You're In victors, 37 international competitors and four returning champions, officials drew post positions for the Nov. 6-7 Breeders' Cup world championship races today at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky.

There are nine full fields in the 14 races, including four of the five Future Stars Friday Breeders' Cup races on Nov. 6, giving horseplayers a virtual feast of handicapping opportunities.

The three Bob Baffert horses in the $6-million Breeders' Cup Classic drew the three outside post positions in the field of 10, headed by 5-2 morning line favorite Improbable in post eight. Trainer Barclay Tagg had hoped his Tiz the Law would draw outside, but he was not so lucky, drawing the No. 2 post position.

View today's Breeders' Cup News Minute below:

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