Bob Baffert | Horse Racing Free Tips

Local Prep Winner Caddo River Favored Over Baffert Pair In Saturday’s Rebel

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert has dominated Oaklawn's four-race Kentucky Derby prep series the last decade. But it's Eclipse Award-winning trainer Brad Cox who has owned 2021.

Cox sent out Caddo River to a record-setting 10 ¼-length victory in the $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes Jan. 22 for breeder/owner John Ed Anthony of Hot Springs. Cox then saddled champion 2-year-old male Essential Quality to win the $750,000 Southwest Stakes (G3) Feb. 27 and remain unbeaten in four career starts.

It's now Caddo River's turn, again, this time in the $1 million Rebel Stakes (G2), which highlights Saturday's blockbuster program at Oaklawn. Probable post time for the Rebel, the 11th of 12 races, 5:16 p.m. (Central). Racing begins at noon. The infield will be open, weather permitting.

The Rebel is among five stakes races to be run Saturday at Oaklawn, the others being the $150,000 Temperence Hill for older horses at 1 ½ miles, $200,000 Hot Springs for older sprinters, $350,000 Azeri (G2) for older females at 1 1/16 miles and the $500,000 Essex Handicap for older horses at 1 1/16 miles.

Whitmore, the country's champion male sprinter of 2020, will be making his seasonal debut in the Hot Springs. The gelding has won the 6-furlong Hot Springs a record four consecutive years. The Azeri will mark the 2021 debut of Shedaresthedevil, last year's Kentucky Oaks winner and a finalist for champion 3-year-old filly.

The Rebel is Oaklawn's third of four Kentucky Derby points races. The eight entrants from the rail out: Caddo River, Florent Geroux to ride, 122 pounds, 9-5 on the morning line; Big Lake, Ricardo Santana Jr., 117, 12-1; Hozier, Martin Garcia, 117, 12-1; Get Her Number, Javier Castellano, 119, 8-1; Twilight Blue, Brian Hernandez Jr., 119, 15-1; Keepmeinmind, David Cohen, 119, 4-1; Concert Tour, Joel Rosario, 117, 2-1; and Super Stock, Joe Talamo, 117, 6-1.

The Rebel will offer 85 points (50-20-10-5, respectively) to the top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 horses.

Caddo River earned 10 points for his front-running victory in the 1-mile Smarty Jones, which marked the two-turn debut for the long-striding son of 2007 Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun. Caddo River closed his 2-year-old campaign with a front-running 9 ½-length maiden victory going a mile Nov. 15 at Churchill Downs.

Baffert finished second to Cox in the Southwest with Spielberg, but returns for the Rebel, a race the trainer has won a record seven times, with a more highly regarded prospect in unbeaten Concert Tour (2 for 2). Concert Tour, who will be making his two-turn debut, broke his maiden Jan. 15 at Santa Anita and won the $200,000 San Vicente Stakes (G2) Feb. 6 at Santa Anita.

“Concert Tour, I just think that he's done everything right and he's worked well coming into this race,” said Baffert, who, since 2010, has 15 victories in Kentucky Derby prep races at Oaklawn. “I think Caddo River is definitely the horse to beat. Cox is tough right now. He's got some nice horses and does a great job. And Keepmeinmind ran a great race in the Breeders' Cup. He's a good horse. You want to move forward. You just want to make a forward progression. They have to run first or second, to me. They've got to run first or second.”

Caddo River had been based at Oaklawn before Cox moved the colt to Fair Grounds Feb. 11, shortly before severe winter weather shuttered Oaklawn for almost two weeks. Remaining on a regular work schedule, Caddo River breezed four times at Fair Grounds before returning to Hot Springs Wednesday. Caddo River was able to clear his rivals from the extreme outside (post 7) going into the first turn of the Smarty Jones and now gets the rail for the Rebel.

“We'll see how it goes,” Cox said. “He's doing great. We couldn't ask him to be training any better. He hasn't missed anything. He's on a great schedule and training like the part.”

Caddo River's resume has been flattered in recent weeks. Smarty Jones runner-up Cowan finished a troubled second in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby Feb. 20 in Saudi Arabia and Greatest Honour, who twice finished behind Caddo River in maiden races last fall in New York, won the $200,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) Jan. 30 and the $300,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) Feb. 27. Both races were at Gulfstream Park.

“It's nice to see that horse has been kind of dominating the south Florida circuit,” Cox said. “He's run twice and obviously he's moved forward. I think we've moved forward as well. It gives us confidence, for sure.”

Baffert won the 2020 Rebel with Nadal, who also entered 2 for 2 after breaking his maiden sprinting in January at Santa Anita and winning the San Vicente. Concert Tour stalked the pace in the San Vicente and Baffert called Saturday's post position “fine.”

“My horses always seem to draw the rail,” Baffert said. “I draw it so much. It's one of those things, they still have to get away cleanly. Spielberg had a nice outside post and it ended up a horrendous break. No fault of anybody's, but he just moved at the last minute. They still have to get away from there and break cleanly and get into the race. You just want to get them into a nice rhythm where they can breathe easily and not get stopped.”

Late-running Keepmeinmind will be making his first start since breaking his maiden with a last-to-first victory in the $200,000 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs. Prior to the Kentucky Jockey Club, Keepmeinmind finished third to Essential Quality in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) Nov. 6 at Keeneland and second to Essential Quality in the $400,000 Breeders' Futurity (G1) Oct. 3 at Keeneland.

Keepmeinmind was to make his 3-year-old debut in the Southwest, which was originally scheduled to be run Feb. 15 before the race was postponed twice because of severe winter weather. Robertino Diodoro, Oaklawn's leading trainer last year, opted to pass the delayed Southwest and point for the Rebel after Keepmeinmind's training schedule was interrupted by snow and bitter cold. Keepmeinmind has been based at Oaklawn since late December.

“I like the draw, the post, I like everything about it, to be honest,” Diodoro said. “No complaints. My famous saying is the race is run on dirt, not paper, but on paper it looks like more pace than I predicted to be in there. I like what the race looks like.”

Diodoro said Keepmeinmind will carry the silks of famed Spendthrift Farm for the first time in the Rebel after it recently purchased an interest in the son of Laoban.

Grade 1 winner Get Her Number will be making his 3-year-old debut for Southern California-based trainer Peter Miller. Super Stock ran third in the Breeders' Futurity for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen.

The Rebel is the final major local prep for the $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) April 10. Nadal won the second division of last year's Arkansas Derby.

Baffert also won the Rebel in 2010 (Lookin At Lucky), 2011 (The Factor), 2012 (Secret Circle), 2014 (Hoppertunity), 2015 (American Pharoah) and 2016 (Cupid).

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Swiss Skydiver Returns to Arcadia for Beholder Mile

Champion Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) crushed her competition on her last trip to the west coast for the GII Santa Anita Oaks last spring and looks to repeat that performance Saturday when she returns to Santa Anita for the GI Beholder Mile. Capturing the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks and GIII Fantasy S. prior to the Santa Anita Oaks last term, the chestnut took on males next out in the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. July 11, finishing a respectable second to Art Collector (Bernardini). Returning to winning ways next out in Saratoga's 10-panel GI Alabama S. Aug. 15, the $35,000 KEESEP buy checked in second to GII Azeri S.-bound Shedaresthedevil (Daredevil) in the GI Kentucky Oaks Sept. 4.

Trainer Ken McPeek felt confident enough in his charge to try her against males again in the GI Preakness S. Oct. 3 and she delivered with a gritty defeat of GI Kentucky Derby hero and eventual Horse of the Year Authentic (Into Mischief). Swiss Skydiver completed 2020 with a disappointing and surprising seventh behind two-time champion Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) in the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff at Keeneland Nov. 7, but had already done more than enough to secure the Eclipse for top 3-year-old filly. She has been working well leading up to this seasonal bow, most recently breezing a best-of-39 five panels in :58 flat at Gulfstream Mar. 6.

Her biggest competition is likely to come from MGSW Harvest Moon (Uncle Mo). Graduating at second asking when switched to the dirt in July, she scored a decisive optional claimer victory next out at Del Mar three weeks later and captured the GIII Torrey Pines S. there in August. Winning the GII Zenyatta S. at Santa Anita Sept. 27, the bay checked in fourth last out in the Distaff.

Bob Baffert saddles two in this event in As Time Goes By (American Pharoah) and Golden Principal (Constitution). Out of MGISW and blue hen Take Charge Lady (Dehere), As Time Goes By graduated at third asking going six furlongs at Los Alamitos Dec. 13 and romped by nine lengths next out over track and trip Jan. 17. Capturing a Del Mar optional claimer at this distance Nov. 27, Golden Principal completed the exacta in both the Dec. 26 GI La Brea S. and the Feb. 133 GII Santa Monica S.

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Baffert Seeks Eighth Rebel Win

Bob Baffert is dangerous at any track he runs at, but he seems to have a special affinity for Oaklawn, especially in the GII Rebel S. The Hall of Famer has won that event seven times, saddling the likes of Lookin at Lucky (2010), The Factor (2011), Secret Circle (2012), Hoppertunity (2014), Triple Crown hero American Pharoah (2015), Cupid (2016) and Nadal (2020). All of those horses went on to be Grade I winners and stallions and undefeated Concert Tour (Street Sense) looks to add his name to that illustrious list Saturday in Hot Springs.

Tabbed a 'TDN Rising Star' off his impressive debut win at Santa Anita Jan. 15, the bay captured the seven-panel GII San Vicente S. next out there Feb. 6. The Gary and Mary West homebred breezed a six-panel bullet in 1:11 2/5 (1/11) in Arcadia Mar. 6. He makes his first attempt at two turns here, but is bred to relish a route of ground.

Caddo River (Hard Spun) demolished the field in his last starts and looks to continue that roll as he steps up to graded company here. Runner-up in his first two attempts going seven panels in New York this fall, the dark bay broke through with a 9 1/2-length graduation going a mile at Churchill Downs Nov. 15. He repeated next out with a front-running 10 1/4-length tour de force in the Smarty Jones S. in Hot Springs Jan. 22.

Runner-up in his off-the-turf unveiling at Churchill Sept 2, Keepmeinmind (Laoban) checked in second to champion Essential Quality (Tapit) next out in Keeneland's GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. Oct. 3. Completing the trifecta behind that rival in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile there Nov. 6, the bay closed from well back to earn his diploma in Churchill's GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 28, after which Spendthrift Farm bought in.

Get Her Number (Dialed In) makes his first start here since capturing the GI American Pharoah S. Sept. 26. Breaking his maiden first out sprinting on the turf at Del Mar Aug. 14, the bay set the pace before tiring to fourth in the Del Mar Juvenile Turf S. there Sept. 7. Switched to the main track at Santa Anita next out, he scored a narrow victory in the American Pharoah.

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Taking Stock: West-Bred Life Is Good and Concert Tour Top Baffert Barn

Gary and Mary West bred last weekend's hugely impressive Gll San Felipe S. winner Life Is Good (Into Mischief) and Saturday's leading Gll Rebel S. contender Concert Tour (Street Sense), both 'TDN Rising Stars', both trained by Bob Baffert and probably the two leading Classics aspirants in his barn, with five wins, three graded triumphs and no losses between them. That's quite a feat for the Wests and their racing manager Ben Glass–clients of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants–because the Baffert barn is loaded with expensive and well-bred auction purchases for a number of big-time outfits, including the “Avengers” group that raced Gl Kentucky Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic winner Authentic (Into Mischief) last year, and their former partners in Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy), WinStar and CHC, which races Life Is Good.

The Wests don't race in partnerships, going it exclusively alone–a rarity these days. They mostly buy yearling colts at Keeneland with a focus on Classic types with the aim of developing stallions, and their nascent breeding operation is mostly based around supporting their young horses at stud, including champions Game Winner (Candy Ride {Arg}), West Coast (Flatter) and Maximum Security (New Year's Day), plus American Freedom (Pulpit). That they've raced three Eclipse Award-winning colts in the last four years tells you all you need to know about their program, but Life is Good and Concert Tour, plus the promising 3-year-old homebred filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Slumber Party (Malibu Moon), are now showcasing the power of their broodmare band, too. Eventually, the plan for the Wests is to sell yearlings commercially, and selling a top colt like Life Is Good, which WinStar and CHC purchased for $525,000 at Keeneland, is good business to that end.

But did the Wests sell or keep a potential Derby winner? Much can happen between now and then, but if Concert Tour and Life Is Good were to meet in the Derby, it would test that question and add some drama to the race for the Wests–not that they need any more drama in Louisville after getting disqualified from first in the Derby with Maximum Security in 2019.

At the moment, Life Is Good, who is out of the Distorted Humor mare Beach Walk, is widely considered the most exciting and talented colt of his class, and that he won the San Felipe by open lengths with a massive 107 Beyer Speed Figure in early March makes him look like a man among boys.

“Based on what I saw today, Life Is Good is by far the best 3-year-old right now,” Gary West told me after the race. “But he will not make an uncontested lead in the Derby. Pace makes the race.”

He's right, of course, because there are questions about the colt's ability to see out 10 furlongs at Churchill Downs, certainly based on the speed he shows early in races. One of the reasons Life Is Good was sold and Concert Tour, who's from the Tapit mare Purse Strings, was retained is that the former is by Into Mischief, a horse who a few years ago was mostly known as the sire of outstanding sprinter/milers, while the latter is by a Kentucky Derby winner.

Perceptions about Into Mischief have changed since Ben Glass sent us an email in late 2016 that said, “Mr. West has put Into Mischief on his list this year [for stallions to use].” The stallion's fee had been rising steadily since it hit a low of $7,500 in 2012, and it was bumped to $75,000 for 2017 from $45,000 the year before. Nevertheless, Into Mischief was represented by only two Grade l winners at that time, Goldencents and Practical Joke. The former had established himself as a premier miler and the latter, from a Distorted Humor mare like Life Is Good, was a 2-year-old of 2016 that had accounted for two Grade l races at 7 furlongs and a mile, the Hopeful and the Champagne, respectively. By the time Life Is Good was foaled in 2018, Practical Joke had reverted to sprinting after a fifth-place finish in the Derby and won the Gl H. Allen Jerkens over seven furlongs, but Audible had won the Gl Florida Derby in early 2018 and would go on to finish third in the Derby, hinting at what Into Mischief could accomplish under the right conditions.

In the August 23, 2019, column “Into Mischief's Changing Profile,” I foreshadowed the arrival of horses like Authentic when I wrote: “With the better mares he's being bred to, it's easy to project that his Grade l output at 1 1/8 miles and up will increase in the coming years. When that happens, his progeny earnings should rise that much more, which means that his rivals on the General Sire list are in for a greater tussle in the ensuing years. The latest chapter of this impressive stallion's book is just being written. Stay tuned.”

To date, Into Mischief is the sire of eight Grade l winners, and he led the General Sire list for the second consecutive year in 2020 with $22,507,940 in progeny earnings, almost $10 million more than runner-up Medaglia d'Oro. The year before, he'd led the list with earnings of $19,179,389, a little more than $3.5 million ahead of Curlin.

The Wests, however, decided to sell Life Is Good in 2019 because he was bred on the same cross as sprinter/miler Practical Joke, but they were only prepared to let him go at their price. They got it–$525,000–from WinStar and CHC, who'd raced Into Mischief's son Audible, and it was a no-brainer for the partners to send him to Baffert after their success with Justify and Baffert's handling of Authentic and the outstanding speed filly Gamine (Into Mischief) last year.

The Figure-8 and Baffert

In Gamine, the $1.8 million Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old sales topper in 2019; and Authentic, a $350,000 Keeneland September yearling, Baffert had a bird's-eye view of the best of Into Mischief–and the stallion's limitations and potential as well. Both Gamine and Authentic were fast, but the filly, a champion sprinter, had distance limitations at nine furlongs like many past top Into Mischiefs while the colt proved he could carry his speed 10 furlongs against the best, surprising many in the process.

Both Gamine and Authentic are lighter and more elegant physicals, whereas Life Is Good is a more robust and masculine model. Like the other two, speed is his game, but how far he can carry it remains the question. In his second start, you'll recall, Life Is Good was cruising easily on the lead and building a sizeable margin in the stretch of the Glll Sham S. before Baffert's Medina Spirit (Protonico), a $35,000 OBS July 2-year-old, took a substantial bite out of that lead at the finish.

As Baffert was preparing Life Is Good for the San Felipe, I noticed he'd called an audible for the colt's last work before the San Felipe and fitted him with a Figure-8 noseband, which is used for control and for encouraging proper breathing through the nostrils by keeping the colt's mouth shut. I texted Baffert last Friday, before the San Felipe, inquiring in text-speak: “Noticed you put fig8 on Life Is Good for 2/28 work and have galloped him in it since. Rare for you. Should help his air, right?”

Baffert replied: “Put it on more for control. Slow him down. His air is great.”

The move proved both inspired and effective, because Life Is Good had eight lengths on Medina Spirit at the end of 1 1/16 miles whereas he'd held the same colt to a 3/4-length margin in the Sham at a mile. As Gary West pointed out, however, Life Is Good had it easy on the lead in the San Felipe with Medina Spirit hard held early to give his stablemate breathing room and the others not wanting to tangle early, but that triple-digit Beyer and the manner in which he won, even with the drifting to the middle of the track, was undeniably impressive and a move in the right direction if 10 furlongs is the goal.

Triple-Digit Beyers

The Twitter persona known as @o_crunk–if you're not following him, you should, because he's the master of stats– tweeted after the race that since Jan. 1, 2010, there have been 132 3-year-olds that have earned Beyers of 100 or more from January through April, with Baffert training 32 of them and Todd Pletcher 27 in second place. In a follow-up tweet, @o_crunk put this in context, noting that Baffert and Pletcher also get the most expensive auction purchases to work with, and he included an old blog post titled “The Toddster in context” that backs up this hypothesis with auction numbers.

Note, too, that over the same time span Baffert has trained six of the past 11 champion 3-year-old colts, the cheapest of which was Authentic at $350,000 if you don't count homebred American Pharoah's $300,000 “sale” as a yearling. Justify was a $500,000 yearling, West Coast was a $425,000 yearling, Arrogate cost $560,000 as a yearling, and Lookin At Lucky was a $475,000 2-year-old.

There's a reason why folks pay good money for yearlings and 2-year-olds at auction, and why they send them to Baffert, too.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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