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The Week in Review: From Out of New Orleans Gloaming, Sierra Leone Splashes into Derby Relevance

'TDN Rising Star' Sierra Leone (Gun Runner) checked off quite a few boxes on his GI Kentucky Derby development checklist with Saturday's half-length score in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. In just his third career start, he handled shipping away from his home base, winning as the 5-2 favorite off an 11-week layoff, rating from mid-pack while equipped with blinkers for the first time, and racing under the lights on a sloppy, sealed and eerily shadowy track.

And yet, jockey Tyler Gaffalione still believes there's room for improvement–which is exactly what you want to hear if you fancy the chances of this $2.3-million Fasig-Tipton Saratoga sale-topper on the first Saturday in May.

“He's a very special horse. We haven't even gotten close to the bottom of him,” Gaffalione told FanDuel TV's Caton Bredar post-win. “He's still learning. He's still green. You can see when he made the lead, he still wanted to lug in a little bit. But [he was] much more professional today. He honestly didn't hit his best stride until the gallop-out.”

After winning his one-turn-mile debut Nov. 4 at Aqueduct, trainer Chad Brown tried Sierra Leone in the Dec. 2 GII Remsen S., where the colt uncorked a sweeping, seven-wide move over a muddy surface that produced a heavily speed-slanted bias (five wire-to-wire and five on-the-pace winners). Sierra Leone sling-shotted to the lead, but bore in once it looked like he'd blow past Dornoch (Good Magic), who clawed back to the lead to win in the shadow of the wire.

It was an unfortunate loss-of-focus result for Sierra Leone, but Brown shrugged off the second-place finish and immediately suggested he'd equip the colt with blinkers to start his sophomore season.

The blinkers weren't intended to suddenly transform this deep closer into a speed freak. But on Saturday the equipment change did make a mid-pack trip easier to attain under the patient Gaffalione.

The second-favorite in the Risen Star, the 3-1 Track Phantom (Quality Road), was sent to the lead as expected, and Joel Rosario was able to milk a moderate tempo at the head of affairs, splashing through catch-me-if-you-can splits of :24.32, :25.35 and :25.07 for the first three quarter-miles of the nine-furlong race.

As a come-from-behinder, Sierra Leone might end up being one of those Derby hopefuls who is always going to be at the mercy of the pace and potential traffic. Three-eighths out, it became apparent that trying to reel in a relatively untaxed Track Phantom would be a good test of Sierra Leone's ability to overcome exactly that sort of adversity.

Going into the Risen Star, Track Phantom had won three straight two-turn races while controlling the cadence and then having to swat back legitimate stretch challenges, and he turned for home in the New Orleans gloaming still looking strong with the additional benefit of having taken no kickback at the front of the slop-spattered pack.

Sierra Leone takes a long while to unwind, but there was no panic in Gaffalione's tactics as he let his colt build momentum starting three-eighths out. Turning for home, Gaffalione was still content to be choosy about picking his path, spinning four-, six-, eight- and then nine wide for the drive, exchanging all that lost real estate for being able to get a clear shot at the hard-trying Track Phantom.

Sierra Leone was still four lengths in arrears at the eighth pole. But he sliced that margin in half a sixteenth from the finish while edging inward toward Catching Freedom (Constitution) and then Track Phantom despite left-handed urging from Gaffalione to stay straight.

With the line looming, Gaffalione knew he had Track Phantom zeroed in on his striking sights 50 yards from home, and Sierra Leone seemed to relish the task of inhaling that rival, striding out powerfully to stop the timer in 1:52.13.

Don't judge Sierra Leone's effort by that raw final clocking on a quagmire of a track that got more sluggish after sunset. By .66 seconds, it was the slowest Risen Star in six runnings (including split divisions in 2020) since the Risen Star got elongated to nine furlongs from 1 1/16 miles five years ago.

The winning Beyer Speed Figure came back as 90, which is more or less on par with the 91 Sierra Leone earned in the Remsen.

The timing to take note of out of the Risen Star is the fourth quarter clocked in :24.66.

For comparison, of the nine points-awarding Derby qualifying stakes run at 1 1/8 miles during the entire 2022-23 campaign, only one of those races (the GI Santa Anita Derby in early April) yielded a sub-25 seconds fourth quarter.

And the final furlong, during which Sierra Leone gained 2 1/2 lengths to win, was clocked in a respectable (given the course conditions) :12.73.

The Apr. 6 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland will be next for Sierra Leone.

“What we had planned on win or lose–but assuming a good race–is to use the Blue Grass as our Kentucky Derby prep,” Brown said after the Feb. 17 win. “So things went well today and we'll stick to that, but having the points is a nice-to-have in case there's a rough trip or something doesn't go according to plan in the Blue Grass.”

History could be on Sierra Leone's side in the Blue Grass. The last six times Brown has started a horse in that stakes, the results have been two wins, three close seconds, and a third.

But another recent angle–winning the Kentucky Derby off of just two starts at age three–could pose a historical hurdle.

After that game plan produced eight Derby winners between 2007 and 2016, horses with only two sophomore starts prior to trying their luck in Louisville have been a collective 0-for-39 since 2017.

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The Week in Review: Tapit Trice Has Grown Up

Tapit Trice (Tapit) won the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby in his stakes debut back on Mar. 11, but that horse was never going to win the GI Kentucky Derby. Yes, he had become a Grade II winner, is by Tapit, cost $1.3 million at Keeneland September sale and is in the capable hands of Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher. But the Tapit Trice that won the Tampa Bay Derby looked like an immature horse who had yet to figure the game out. Combine that with the fact that he beat a soft group of horses and earned a Beyer figure of only 88 and his chances to win a race as tough and as demanding as the Derby seemed slim.

Which meant there was room for improvement and that he had to getter better. It happened. In Saturday's GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland, this was a much better version of Tapit Trice. He looked like a horse that can beat stablemate Forte (Violence) and everyone else in the Derby.

It was evident from the start. At Tampa, Tapit Trice walked out of the gate and was so sluggish early on that he found himself in last within four or five strides of the horses leaving the gate. Down the backstretch, he was 11th out of 12 and 8 1/4 lengths behind the leader. In the Blue Grass, he broke with the field, losing nothing at the start. He still didn't have the type of speed that could carry him to the front, but neither would he sluggishly drop back. At the first point of call in the Blue Grass, he was fourth, just 2 1/2 lengths off of the lead being set by Clear the Air (Ransom the Moon).

In the Tampa Bay Derby, jockey Luis Saez figured out early on that he needed to get close to the leaders. At the half-mile pole, he already had Tapit Trice under a drive and, at least initially, got no response. It was a much different scenario in the Blue Grass. Beginning in the run down the backstretch, Tapit Trice made a sharp move and seemed to be doing it on his own. He went from eighth to fourth in a matter of about 40 yards.

Tapit Trice looked beaten on the far turn at Tampa and didn't do any real running until the final eighth. It was good enough for the win, which came over Classic Car Wash (Noble Bird). Note that he beat the same horse by 16 1/2 lengths in the Blue Grass.

Fast forward four weeks and Tapit Trice continued to make progress until drawing even with Verifying (Justify) at the top of the Blue Grass stretch. Verifying comes out of the loaded Brad Cox barn, finished second in the GI Champagne S. and romped in an Oaklawn allowance before finishing fourth in the GII Rebel S. He was a worthy foe and he put up a fight. Tapit Trice got by him in the final sixteenth, showing the type of determination that is important in any race and extra important in the Kentucky Derby.

This time his Beyer number was a 99. That's just two points behind Two Phil's (Hard Spun), whose 101 Beyer from the Jeff Ruby Steaks is best among horses headed to the Derby. It's also faster than any number Forte has ever run.

That doesn't mean that Tapit Trice has to win the Derby. It does mean that, after the Blue Grass, he has to be considered a major contender. He's fast enough and has the right pedigree. But most importantly, he'll come in to the race off of the best performance of his career and everything points to him continuing to get better.

At Santa Anita, Another Big Effort Out of a Japanese Horse

Practical Move (Practical Joke) won the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby Saturday, which was a surprise to no one. After his win the in GII San Felipe S., he looked like the best 3-year-old in California.

But what not many expected was the huge effort by runner-up Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), who finished second, losing by just a nose. Even with all the success Japanese horses have had around the globe of late, it looked like Mandarin Hero was up against it at Santa Anita. While he was 4-for-5 lifetime, he had been racing on Japan's National Association of Racing (NAR) circuit. The NAR circuit is the lesser circuit in Japan and the horses that race at those tracks are supposed to be inferior to the horses who run at the Japan Racing Association (JRA) tracks.

So, if Mandarin Hero from the NAR can come that close to beating one of the top 3-year-old colts in the U.S., what does that say about Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits), who looked so good when winning the G2 UAE Derby? Derma Sotogake, who also finished third in the G3 Saudi Derby, came to the Middle East after winning three straight at JRA tracks.

The Japanese will also be represented by Continuar (Jpn) (Drefrong). A JRA horse, he earned an automatic spot in the Derby with his win in the Cattleya S. He was third, beaten 10 lengths, by Derma Sotogake in the UAE Derby.

As for Mandarin Hero, he may not get into the Derby. With 40 points, he currently sits 24th on the points standings for the race and will need a few defections to get in.

A Stunner in the Wood Memorial

There are too many Kentucky Derby prep races and not enough top 3-year-olds to go around, so one of the races had to suffer. And it's the GII Wood Memorial. For decades it was one of the most important prep races for the Derby, but is now mired in a slump that goes back 20 years. The last Wood starter to win the Derby was Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) in 2003. Since then, 40 Wood starters have run in the Derby and not one crossed the wire among the top three. In 2019, Wood winner Tacitus (Tapit) was awarded third due to the disqualification of Maximum Security.

In 2017, the Wood Memorial was deservedly downgraded to a Grade II.

Things don't figure to change this year. It was an exciting race with three horses separated by a nose and a head at the wire, but not a race that should inspire much confidence when it comes to the top three. Not when the race was won by a 59-1 shot in Lord Miles (Curlin). He was a dull sixth on the GIII Holy Bull S. and didn't do much better when fifth, beaten 5 3/4 lengths by Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby. He looks like a 50-1 shot in the Derby.

Back at Keeneland, Another Big Win for the Computer Players

We've all seen it happen hundreds of times, the odds plunge on a horse after the gates open and the horse goes on to win. But it's not something anyone should grow complacent about, not when the sport has no answer to the problem that is the computer players pouring huge sums into the pools at the very last second.

There was a glaring example of this Saturday at Keeneland in the GIII Commonwealth S. With the field loaded, eventual winner Here Mi Song (Cross Traffic) was 19-1. About five seconds after the field left the gate, his odds fell to 12-1. Then, 32 seconds after the start of the race, his odds changed again, falling to 11-1. He paid $25.60, yet I imagine any normal player who had a win bet on him felt more cheated than victorious.

It's time for more tracks to do what NYRA did, which was to effectively ban the computer players from the win pools. That won't keep them from pounding the other pools, but will take care of the problem of having their core customers grow irate every time a horse goes on to win after their odds plummeted after the race has started.

NY Horseplayers Shut Out Again on Easter

We've got the dumbest rule in horse racing for you. In New York on Easter, you can buy alcohol at a store or go to a bar. You can play the lottery, wager on pro sports and go to a casino. You can even go to the Resort's World casino in Queens, which is under the same roof as Aqueduct. But you can't bet on a horse.

It's not just that the New York tracks can't race on Easter. It's that all betting on all racing is shut down. The ADW customer is not allowed to place a bet on any tracks anywhere. Like someone in the fourth at Gulfstream? Too bad.

This goes back to 1973 when Sunday racing was legalized in New York, but several politicians were opposed to this based on religious reasons. In order to pass Sunday racing, a compromise had to be reached and it included not allowing any betting on the ponies on Easter and Palm Sunday. In 2015, the Palm Sunday ban was lifted, but not the Easter ban. It lives on, as ridiculous as it is.

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Raise Cain Eyes Blue Grass, Mr. Swagger, Clear the Air Likely for Wood

Andrew Warren and Rania Warren's Raise Cain (Violence), who romped home in the Mar. 4 GIII Gotham S., will likely forego a return trip to Aqueduct and make his next start in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8, according to trainer Ben Colebrook.

Raise Cain had his first work since the Gotham when going four furlongs in :49.00 (1/3) at Keeneland Mar. 22.

“He's been training great and put on weight,” said Colebrook. “He'll breeze again [Thursday] at Keeneland. I think he really gets it now and now he's confident and feeling good. I think he's sitting on a big race wherever we go. It's exciting.”

Colebrook continued, “I don't think the Blue Grass will be a full field and it's one of those things where if we can run in our own backyard, it will take a strong reason for us to go to the Wood. But, it could still happen if something changes with defections and it's still on our radar. We're taking it day by day.”

Two horses who finished behind Raise Cain with troubled trips in the Gotham are expected to line up fo rthe Apr. 8 GII Wood Memorial.

Victoria's Ranch's Mr. Swagger (Maclean's Music), sixth over a muddy and sealed main track in the Gotham, is expected to return to Aqueduct for the Wood.

A maiden winner in his 6 1/2-furlong debut at Aqueduct Jan. 28, the Juan Avila trainee was making just his second career start in the one-mile Gotham. He worked six furlongs in 1:19.47 (1/2) over a muddy Parx surface Saturday.

“He's perfect,” Avila said. “He went easy and strong and finished up very nice. We are ready for the Wood Memorial and I think he's ready for a nice race.”

Mr. Swagger, who added blinkers when exiting post three in the Gotham, was bumped at the break and prompted the pace from fourth position at the half-mile call, but failed to fire after saving ground through the turn.

“In the Gotham, I said to Carlos [Olivero] that I want to see Mr. Swagger be in last place, but he was much closer,” Avila said. “Hopefully, this time he can stay back.”

Avila said Mr. Swagger will keep the blinkers on for the Wood Memorial.

Also expected in the Wood Memorial line-up is Cypress Creek Equine's Clear the Air (Ransom the Moon), who maintained rail-skimming position from seventh in the Gotham before going four wide in upper stretch and checking around the three-sixteenths pole. He continued to find more down the lane and finished 10 3/4 lengths in arrears of the victorious Raise Cain.

“It wasn't really what we drew up on paper going into it,” trainer Will Walden admitted. “I know when you get a bunch of horses running around in the slop, it almost never goes according to plan. Raise Cain got some momentum. He went inside and we went outside. The hole we were going for closed at the three sixteenths. When you get fully stopped on a big horse, it can be hard to re-rally. But he started picking off horses and started to get going. But by that time, it was too late in the game. If he doesn't get stopped, I think he ends up second or third.”

A maiden winner going six furlongs at Turfway in January, Clear the Air was a troubled fourth in a one-mile optional claimer at Turfway Feb. 11 before his Gotham effort. He worked four furlongs in :48.00 (3/77) at Turfway Saturday.

“He's a big, long stretchy horse and he's very efficient,” Walden said. “The way he breezes and gallops out, he looks like a two-turn horse. He also did run two turns at Turfway going a mile. That was again a horrible trip. He never got out of cover until well inside the sixteenth pole. But the two turns that day never seemed to be an issue. He looked loaded the whole time.”

Walden said he expects to see continued improvement in his charge.

“He won't officially be a 3-year-old until May 5,” Walden said. “I've felt all along that this horse has all the talent in the world. I believe he has graded-stakes type of potential. I don't know exactly when the lightbulb will fully go off. He's still big and green, but if things go right for him, he can put it together. It wouldn't shock me if he went up there and ran really big.”

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The Week in Review: Derby Dynamics Reflect Changing Times

It's long been an appealing part of American lore how the GI Kentucky Derby is unique compared to every other race run during the year. The emphasis has traditionally been on young horses getting exactly one chance to run a distance they've never before attempted, against the largest field they'll likely ever encounter; in front of the biggest on-track crowd they'll ever experience.

But the 21st Century has gradually added dynamics to the Derby's legacy that have shaped the race in ways that could not have been fathomed even one generation ago.

A qualifying points system now determines starting berths, essentially rewriting the game plan for training Derby aspirants. Starting spots are reserved for foreign horses in an effort to globally grow Derby betting. Two of the past three Derbies have involved interference or drug disqualifications of the first horses across the finish wire, ensnarling “the most exciting two minutes in sports” in months of litigation. This year the gaming corporation that controls the Derby has barred the winningest trainer in the history of the race, although swift action related to a series of related appeals in the courts has kept that issue from dominating the Derby's news cycle.

We also have an unprecedented lull in the action, with this year being the first to feature four weeks between the final important weekend of nine-furlong preps and the Derby itself.

That spacing got changed when Oaklawn Park readjusted its 2022 prep schedule by moving back the date of its premier stakes, the GI Arkansas Derby, so it sat five weeks out from the first Saturday in May instead of the more familiar three.

You can't use one single year as a measuring stick. But the entire sophomore series at Oaklawn this season shook out as the weakest prep path to Louisville, with only three longshot contenders likely for the Kentucky Derby. The bigger question moving forward will be whether or not some enterprising track will juggle its own prep race spacing for '23 to claim the mid-April spot vacated by Oaklawn.

It's true that the “less is more” approach to training dovetails better with the four-week placement of the final 100-points-to-the-winner stakes. Yet the Saturday exactly three weeks out from the Derby still has untapped potential as prime real estate on the calendar in the context of being the last chance to earn serious qualifying points.

Right now Aqueduct, Keeneland and Santa Anita all stack up against each other on the same four-weeks-out date. They all offer the same-distance race for the same amount of Derby points, with the only difference being that the Wood Memorial S. is a Grade II instead of the Grade I offered by the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass S.

At some level, wouldn't it behoove one of those tracks to break with convention and lay claim to being the theoretical “only game in town” on a standalone Saturday without having to compete against the other two for entrants and the attention of the betting public?

This year the Wood, Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby all went off within roughly the same hour on Apr. 9. The very next Saturday was fairly light on the national landscape, yet the GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. at Keeneland attracted 11 sophomores who were chasing coveted Derby qualifying points.

No matter that the Lexington was a relatively short race at 1 1/16 miles featuring only 20 points to the victor. Those were still crucial points for horses on the cusp of being in or out, and the Lexington was compelling this year because of it being a last-gasp chance to make it to Louisville.

The qualifying points system isn't perfect. But one of its most intriguing, baked-in advantages is that the closer you get to the date of the Derby itself, the more riveting the quest for points becomes. In that respect, it seems almost wasteful not to be leveraging that drama right up until the three-week mark before the race.

Another small step for Oregon

On Thursday, TDN reported on the glimmer of hope that exists to revitalize racing at Grants Pass Downs in southern Oregon.

Later that same evening, the plans took another small but important step forward when the Southern Oregon Horse Racing Association (SOHRA) was resurrected after two years of dormancy.

The idea is for the Oregon Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association (OHBPA) to fund the eventual return of an extended meet at Grants Pass, while SOHRA steps in as an experienced recent license-holder to help keep the state's most suitable track for training open this spring and summer while possibly hosting the formerly traditional fairs meet at Grants Pass in June/July.

Four other mixed-meet fairs tracks run in Oregon. But they were all put in jeopardy earlier this month when the linchpin of the circuit–35 days of commercial-meet racing at Grants Pass–got severed in the wake of the Oregon Racing Commission (ORC)'s vote to deny a gaming license to the track.

That ORC decision was based on a Department of Justice opinion that called the project unconstitutional because of the way the state's gambling laws are set up and it came after investor Travis Boersma spent $35 million over the last two years overhauling Grants Pass Downs and building a facility to house historical horse racing machines there.

Without Grants Pass up and functional, the horses have nowhere to train for the fairs.

According to the Grants Pass Daily Courier, about 50 trainers and owners crowded into a backstretch meeting Apr. 21, and the first order of SOHRA business was bringing back Rod Lowe, who previously oversaw SOHRA when the organization hosted the Josephine County Fair dates at Grants Pass Downs between 2013-19.

Asked why he was coming back to head the longshot revival of Oregon racing, Lowe drew applause when he said, “Because I love the sport, I love the industry. And I love Grants Pass Downs.”

The Daily Courier said the next important deadline will be Tuesday, which is when the OHBPA will find out if it's able to buy the heavy equipment (starting gate, tractors, horse ambulance, etc…) that Boersma wants liquidated.

Win machine on the move

Greeley and Ben (Greeley's Conquest), who tied for second-winningest horse in North America in 2021 with 11 trips to the winner's circle, won his fourth race of '22 on Sunday at Oaklawn Park. The strapping 8-year-old has now won 15 of his last 20 starts and 20 of 32 lifetime.

That's an impressive run for a gelding who was claimed for $10,000 a little over a year ago.

Since being owned and trained by Karl Broberg (End Zone Athletics), Greeley and Ben has blossomed into a three-time stakes winner who has bankrolled roughly 45 times his claim price in purses.

Dropping from Grade III sprint company into a $62,500 optional-claimer/NW3L allowance Sunday, Greeley and Ben was bet down to 2-5 favoritism. He pressed the pace and edged clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths, but was claimed by trainer Melton Wilson on behalf of owner Thaddeus Wier, Jr.

Somewhat surprisingly, Greeley and Ben isn't the continent's victory leader so far in '22: Exit Right (Effinex) is 5-for-5 at Parx and Aqueduct. Beverly Park (Munnings) is 5-for-12 (yes, a dozen starts through mid-April) with wins at Charles Town, Laurel and Mahoning Valley.

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