We've finally made it to the end of the road for the 2-year-old auction season, and it looks a lot like the start.
For a second straight year, Triple Crown winner Justify has finished the season atop the 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings, gauging comparative success in average under-tack show times and median sale price. The Ashford Stud resident debuted at the top of the 2023 list after clearing the eligibility thresholds in April, and no one was able to knock him off the podium.
At the conclusion of last month's Fasig-Tipton Midlantic June 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale, we finished the season with 121 eligible stallions for this year's Power Rankings, ranging from the industry behemoths to regional offerings. It can be hard to stand out in a group that large, but the ones that do manage to poke their heads above the tree line have proven to be multi-tool successes in this marketplace.
When going over these rankings, it's important to remember they're not intended to predict success on the track. There are plenty of penthouse-level commercial sires who finished in the middle of the pack because their juveniles are geared toward doing their best further down the road, and at distances longer than one furlong. There's nothing wrong with that.
However, a pinhook buyer at a yearling sale sees their profit when the prospect breezes and sells the following year. Knowing which sires are succeeding when sellers need their juveniles to shine can help break some ties when it comes to shopping and buying at the yearling sales.
As a reminder, here are the requirements to qualify for the Power Rankings. If you notice a sire is missing from the list, it's almost certainly because they didn't hit one of these marks:
1) At least five horses sold during a major 2023 juvenile sale, regardless of distance breezed.
2) At least five horses that breezed an eighth of a mile, whether they sold or not (as much as I love a good quarter-mile breeze, there just aren't enough horses doing them to make a fair average).
Also important to note: For the sake of calculating averages, I stretched out each breeze time from fifths to tenths. If you see a :9.8 time somewhere, do not adjust your stopwatches.
Let's get a look at those rankings…
#1 – Justify, Ashford Stud
Justify has had two crops of juveniles go through the sales, and they've both propelled him to the top of the year-end Power Rankings.
Topping the list last year wasn't a huge surprise. Buyers pay a premium for first-year sires, and with the elite quality of mares he saw in his first book, it would have been pretty concerning if his foals didn't come out firing when the under-tack shows rolled around.
A mild downturn in buyer interest and breeze times would have been logical for Justify's second crop once the market moved on to the next shiny new class of rookie sires. Instead, Justify's follow-up crop posted an even faster average breeze show time, and held remarkably steady by median sale price.
The average breeze time is what really stands out with Justify. He was the only sire with an average time under :10.1 seconds (remember, we're dealing with tenths), with four of his 12 workers at one furlong going under 10 seconds. Another three went in :10-flat. There's a bit of good fortune in having that many workers go under the clock without one stubbing their toe into a slower time, but the fact that every single one of Justify's juveniles to work a furlong rose to the occasion is a remarkable nod to the consistency he throws.
And, all this from a stallion that never raced at two himself. Wild stuff.
Justify's 2023 season was led by Tennessee, a colt who hammered to Maverick Racing and Siena Farms for $1.2 million at the OBS March sale; the auction's second-highest price.
The dark bay or brown colt, offered as Hip 215, is out of the Grade 3-placed Smart Strike mare Zinzay, whose foals of note includes Grade 1-placed stakes winner Moon Over Miami. He breezed an eighth in :10-flat during the under-tack show for consignor Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds.
#2 – Maclean's Music, Hill 'n' Dale Farms
The most dramatic year-to-year climb from last year came courtesy of Maclean's Music, who finished tied for 29th in 2022 and nearly made it to the top of the mountain this year.
Maclean's Music saw his average breeze time improve from :10.375 seconds (35th among eligible sires) in 2022 to :10.200 seconds (fourth) this year, while his median sale price climbed from $65,000 (32nd) to $240,000 (seventh).
So, why the big jump? It appears to be supply and demand hitting a sweet spot.
The juveniles of 2023 were conceived at a lull in Maclean's Music's stud book in 2020, when he covered 57 mares. He had just six 2-year-olds go through the ring this season, which meant competition was high when one was offered. The offerings themselves held up their end of the bargain during the breeze shows, with three working an eighth in :10 flat, and another two going in :10.2 seconds.
Those horses were conceived, born, and sold while demand for his racing-ready prospects was high and the supply hadn't yet caught up. In 2021, Maclean's Music entered the breeding season off big campaigns by his sons Jackie's Warrior and Drain the Clock, and that increase in demand led to North America's biggest year-to-year increase in mares bred, with 221. Though he got a classic winner from his first crop in 2017 (Cloud Computing in the Preakness), it felt like Maclean's Music fully earned the public's trust in the early 2020s, and on top of the bulk numbers, breeders felt comfortable sending the best mares they had to him.
The clubhouse leader among the juveniles by Maclean's Music sold at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic May Sale, when Legion Bloodstock, agent, went to $450,000 for Hip 284, a colt out of the winning Yes It's True mare Martini. The Maryland-bred full-brother t0 stakes winner Dirty breezed an eighth in :10.2 seconds, and he was consigned by Hartley/De Renzo Thoroughbreds, agent.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.#3 – Into Mischief, Spendthrift Farm
This one doesn't take a rocket scientist. Into Mischief is North America's leading sire on the racetrack and in the sale ring, his juveniles ran to it under the stopwatch like they have for years, and the buyers dumped out their wallets for them when they stepped in the ring.
The cornerstone member of the Spendthrift Farm roster led all eligible sires by median sale price, at $310,000, which was up from $250,000 in 2022 (good for fourth overall). He remained in 11th place by average breeze time over both years, but they did go a little faster this year, improving from :10.289 seconds to :10.240.
The top seller among Into Mischief's juveniles of 2023 was a $1.3-million dollar colt who sold to More Play at the OBS Spring Sale. Offered as Hip 967, the colt is out of the Grade 3-placed stakes-winning Ministers Wild Cat mare Singing Kitty. He's one of seven horses tied for the fastest time for an eighth this season, stopping the clock in :9.6 seconds. Wavertree Stables consigned the colt, as agent.
This crop of 2-year-olds was conceived in 2020, after Into Mischief's first of what's become four straight years as leading general sire by earnings. He was getting top-shelf books of mares before this crop, but this was his first formal season of breeding the best to the best, in terms of sire list rankings. For as meteoric as Into Mischief's rise has been, it might be ready to enter warp-speed now that we're seeing the foals conceived at the top of the mountain.
#4 – Speightstown, WinStar Farm
Another strong year from one of the breed's most consistent sires of 2-year-olds, climbing from eighth overall to the top five.
Speightstown's under-tack horses carried the most weight to this position, with his average of :10.217 seconds ranking him sixth, and improving from last year's 10th-place finish at :10.288. Among them was a filly who went an eighth in :9.6 seconds at the OBS Spring sale to tie for the fastest time at the distance for the season.
That filly was also Speightstown's most expensive juvenile of the season. Offered as Hip 1012 from the consignment of Scanlon Training and Sales, agent for Excel Bloodstock, she is out of the Grade 3-placed Ghostzapper mare Spooky Woods, and she hails from the family of Arabian Knight. The filly sold to Bradley Thoroughbreds, agent, for $485,000.
That transaction helped propel a big climb in median sale price for Speightstown in 2023, going from $100,000 (15th overall) to $215,000 (ninth overall).
#5 (tie) – Malibu Moon, Spendthrift Farm (Deceased)
The second-to-last crop from this late pillar of the Spendthrift roster gave him one heck of a start to his farewell tour, boosting him from 25th overall in 2022 to a tie for fifth.
The bulk of that ground was made up on the racetrack, where Malibu Moon's 18 juveniles to breeze one furlong averaged :10.117 seconds; second-best in his class. He had a trio of juveniles go in :9.8 seconds, and another six stop the clock in :10-flat. In 2022, he ended up finishing 42nd with an average time of :10.387 seconds.
Malibu Moon's median sale price of $132,500 ranked him 16th on that measurable, led by a colt that sold for $375,000 at the OBS March Sale. Purchased by Three Amigos and offered as Hip 648, the colt is out of the Grade 3-winning Machiavellian mare Marietta. That colt breezed an eighth in :10-flat for consignor James Layden, agent.
That median price was also a big improvement from the previous year, where his figure of $82,500 ranked him 20th in that category.
#5 (tie) – Medaglia d'Oro, Darley
Medaglia d'Oro has made himself comfortable among the elite commercial sires for years, and another top-five finish in these rankings continues the trend.
Though he dipped slightly in the overall rankings from third to fifth, his juveniles breezed faster in 2023, speeding up from :10.266 seconds (ninth in the category) to :10.222 (eighth). His breeze show performers were reliable on the stopwatch, with five of his nine to clock one furlong doing so in :10.2 seconds. Two more went in :10-flat.
Medaglia d'Oro's top seller came during the OBS Spring Sale, when MKW Racing and Breeding landed Hip 1170, a filly out of the Grade 2-placed Distorted Humor mare Virginia Key, for $325,000. Consigned by Wavertree Stables, the filly was one of Medaglia d'Oro's two juveniles to clock an eighth in :10-flat.
Medaglia d'Oro was one of four sires to land in the top 10 in both average breeze time and median sale price, joining Justify, Maclean's Music, and Speightstown. He finished 10th by median sale price, at $197,500.
The post The 2023 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings: Justify Repeats As Year-End Champion appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
