When a Triple Crown winner retires to stud and gets a murderer's row of mares for his debut book, it can feel like everyone else in that freshman sire class is racing for second.
Instead, much like when American Pharoah faced a salty rookie class in 2019, Triple Crown winner Justify found himself posting great numbers, but still locked in a yearlong battle for the freshman earnings title. For Justify, his battle was with a pair of Grade 1-winning juveniles who got lots of support at stud – Bolt d'Oro and Good Magic – and each of them found a major category to top.
Those three horses were the stars of the show last year, but the depth of the class was apparent in the other names that were at or near the top of the various lists that determine success or failure for a sire's first year. If those first-crop performances are any indicator, the freshman class of 2022 is not one that's going to shuffle into mediocrity once the spotlight is off their debut runners.
As we wait for that spotlight to make its transition to the next freshman class, let's take one last look at the rookie sires of 2022, and who ended the year on the highest notes.
Highest Progeny Earnings & Most Stakes Winners (Tie): Bolt d'Oro
B. h., 2015, Medaglia d'Oro x Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy
Standing at Spendthrift Farm, Ky.
2023 Advertised Fee: $35,000
2022 Progeny Earnings: $2,815,623
2022 Stakes Winners: Six
Bolt d'Oro has made a career out of getting a fast start, having won four of his first five races and establishing himself at the top of the pecking order among freshman sires. As it turns out, his foals have done quite the same.
The son of Medaglia d'Oro was an upper-tier freshman sire in practically every major metric, culminating in topping the rookie earnings list. What helped him get there, and what will serve him immensely well in the future, is that he got to the top of the mountain with a broad resume.
Instant Coffee led his earners going the traditional dirt route, taking the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes and establishing himself as a contender on the Triple Crown trail. Joining him was G2 Pilgrim Stakes winner Major Dude and G3 With Anticipation Stakes winner Boppy O, who picked up their graded scores over the turf. Practically every major corner of the North American map had a Bolt d'Oro runner who at least earned a graded stakes placing, and he even got a Group 2-placed runner in Japan.
The only kind of typecasting you can pin on Bolt d'Oro right now in terms of on-track performance is “gets you runners,” and that's not a bad label to have.
The title of true high-end heir to Medaglia d'Oro's sireline has been up for grabs since he retired to stud. There's still a lot of game left to be played, but Bolt d'Oro has quickly made one of the strongest claims yet to his father's throne. If his first runners make some noise on the Triple Crown trail this spring, he might draw away from the other contenders.
Honorable Mentions (Progeny Earnings):
- Good Magic (Hill 'n' Dale Farms): $2,533,214
- Justify (Ashford Stud): $2,349,984
Most Stakes Winners (Tie with Bolt d'Oro): Justify & Good Magic
Justify
Ch. h., 2015, Scat Daddy x Stage Magic, by Ghostzapper
Stands at Ashford Stud, Ky.
2023 Advertised Fee: $100,000
Good Magic
Ch. h., Curlin x Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun
Stands at Hill 'n' Dale Farms, Ky.
2023 Advertised Fee: $50,000
If you clicked on the link at the beginning of the story, you saw the caliber of mares that Justify got in his first book. Leading the pack by stakes winners would be expected from a book that strong, and he did just that.
Justify's group of freshman-sired runners were led domestically by Grade 3 winners Just Cindy (Schuylerville Stakes) and Champions Dream (Nashua Stakes).
For a stallion whose on-track resume was as “American Dirt” as it gets, Justify hit the mark just as hard with global turf runners, including a pair of group stakes winners in Ireland – Statuette (G2 Airlie Stud Stakes) and Aspen Grove (G3 Newtownanner Stud Irish EBF Stakes) – along with Learning to Fly, who took the G3 Widden Stakes in Australia.
What makes the Justify runners especially compelling heading into 2023 is that we know how the sire's story played out on the racetrack. He didn't even make his first start until mid-February of his 3-year-old season, and he only got better as he went. We haven't even reached the point in the calendar where his runners could start truly mirroring their sire. Get your popcorn ready.
On the other side of the coin, Good Magic took home the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old during his racing days, so it would have been a letdown if he didn't get out fast with his freshman runners.
What sets the son of Curlin apart from Bolt d'Oro and Justify among the top three freshmen of 2022 is that his resume is far more conventional, leaning much heavier on dirt. Five of his six stakes winners came over the main track, including all four of his graded winners.
We'll talk about Good Magic's best runners later, but keeping with the idea of conventionality, three of his four graded stakes winners were colts that won points races on the Kentucky Derby prep trail. Getting a colt that can turn himself into a future classic contender and stallion prospect by winning key graded stakes races at two is one of the simplest metrics of success for a freshman sire, and Good Magic checked that box best of all in 2022.
Most Winners, Wins: Sharp Azteca
Dk. b. or br. h., 2013, Freud x So Sharp, by Saint Liam
Stands at Three Chimneys Farm, Ky.
2023 Advertised Fee: $15,000
2022 Winners: 35
2022 Wins: 44
Well, there's no arguing that Sharp Azteca can't get you a winner. No one else in the freshman ranks came close to touching the son of Freud when it came to getting horses into the winner's circle in 2022.
While Sharp Azteca comfortably led in these bulk categories, it's worth noting it wasn't just a game of attrition. He sent out 42.1 percent winners from starters from his freshman-sired runners, which was higher than anyone else in the top 20 by winners among rookie sires with 50 or more starters (which is 15 of the top 20).
That quantity also came with plenty of quality, including stakes winners Tyler's Tribe, Alma Rosa, and Sharp Aza Tack.
Though his career arc doesn't perfectly mirror Justify's, Sharp Azteca also didn't start showing flashes of his true potential until the spring of his 3-year-old season. It wouldn't surprise me to see the foundation that his runners built at age two expand into further big-time success at age three.
Honorable Mentions (Winners):
- Bolt d'Oro (Spendthrift Farm): 29
- Justify (Ashford Stud) 29
Honorable Mentions (Wins):
- Justify (Ashford Stud): 36
- Bolt d'Oro (Spendthrift Farm): 35
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.Most Grade 1 Winners (Tie): Girvin & Good Magic
Girvin
Dk. b. or br. h., 2014, Tale of Ekati x Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon
Standing at Airdrie Stud, Ky.
2023 Advertised Fee: $25,000
Good Magic
Ch. h., Curlin x Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun
Stands at Hill 'n' Dale Farms, Ky.
2023 Advertised Fee: $50,000
With the long line of mares Girvin got for his first book at Florida's Ocala Stud, he certainly had a level of expectation that he was expected to meet, but what we ended up getting from him would be among the very best-case scenarios for just about any stallion, regardless of where he stood.
That starts with Girvin being one of two North American freshman sires to get a Grade 1 winner in 2022: Starlet Stakes winner Faiza.
In total, Girvin had five stakes winners on the year, which put him just one off the three-way tie for first, and they weren't all just Florida-breds beating up on home-state competition. Damon's Mound could have arguably held the belt as North America's best 2-year-old colt after he won the G2 Saratoga Special Stakes, on the heels of a 12 1/2-length debut score at Churchill Downs. He couldn't hold on to that title through the rest of the year, but he did as much as any single horse to send Girvin from Florida to Kentucky.
The next few years are going to tell us a lot about just how well Girvin can move up his mares. His debut season was an undeniable triumph, and the difficulty will ramp up for the next two racing seasons when his incoming runners are bred on books lacking the pop of a first-year sire. Then, he'll have to prove he can boost the profile of Kentucky mares the same way he did for his first Florida mares. But for now, so far, so good.
As for Good Magic…
Highest-Earning Individual Runner: Good Magic
Ch. h., Curlin x Glinda the Good, by Hard Spun
Stands at Hill 'n' Dale Farms, Ky.
2023 Advertised Fee: $50,000
Leading Earner: Blazing Sevens – $468,750
Good Magic was the other freshman sire to get a Grade 1 winner in 2022, in Champagne Stakes winner Blazing Sevens. That colt vaulted to the top of this particular list by also finishing second in the G1 Hopeful Stakes earlier in the year, and by finishing his season with a fourth-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Blazing Sevens earned the highest placing by a freshman-sired runner in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and Good Magic was the only rookie to send two runners to that race, also including fifth-place Curly Jack.
Honorable Mentions:
- Awesome Slew (Ocala Stud): Awesome Strong – $458,000
- City of Light (Lane's End): Chop Chop – $425,450
Highest Turf Earnings & Value Play: Oscar Performance
B. h., 2014, Kitten's Joy x Devine Actress, by Theatrical
Standing at Mill Ridge Farm, Ky.
2023 Advertised Fee: $20,000
Turf Earnings: $1,105,284
First thing's first. Oscar Performance was the only horse in this year's freshman sire class to make my 2022-23 All-Value Sire Team, getting a Second Team nod in the Turf Sire position, so that puts him in a prime spot as the “Value Play” of the group. You can read my All-Value analysis of Oscar Performance here.
Perhaps the easiest prediction to make when running down the list of freshman sires at the beginning of the year was that Oscar Performance would dominate the turf ranks. He won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, his pedigree is about as turf-leaning as they come, and he was supported by a group of breeders who knew what they were doing.
That paid off in a big way, with Oscar Performance not just leading freshman sires by 2-year-old turf earnings, but all stallions in that category, period. He was nearly $170,000 better than second-place More Than Ready, which is some fine company to keep.
That charge was led by Andthewinneris, a dual-surface star who won the G2 Bourbon Stakes (completing an Oscar Performance-sired exacta over runner-up Deer District) and ran third in the G3 With Anticipation Stakes on turf, while also finishing third in the Bashford Manor Stakes over the main track at Churchill Downs.
Honorable Mentions (Turf Earnings):
- Mendelssohn (Ashford Stud): $912,423
- City of Light (Lane's End): $939,486
Highest Percentage Of In-The-Money Runners: Bucchero
Ch. h., 2012, Kantharos x Meetmeontime, by General Meeting
Standing at Pleasant Acres Stallions, Fla.
2023 Advertised Fee: $5,000
In-The-Money Percentage (80 or more progeny starts in 2022): 36.14 percent
He didn't win every race he entered, but when Bucchero stepped into a starting gate, you knew you were going to get a fair account of him when the latch sprung open. It appears he's done a good job imparting that same determinedness on his foals.
Bucchero's runners hit the board in 30 of 83 starts. It's fair to nitpick that his number of progeny starts was far less than his Kentucky-based contemporaries (second-place Good Magic had 59 in-the-money runs from 198 starts, while third-place Army Mule had 49 in the money from 165 starts), but Bucchero's gross in-the-money total was just two fewer than well-thought-of rookies Girvin and Oscar Performance, each with 32 (from 137 and 124 starts, respectively).
That ability to stick around was displayed by his top runners of 2022. Bucchero was unlucky to not get a stakes winner last year, but it wasn't for a lack of trying from Toddchero, who hit the board in five stakes races across three different states. In Florida, he had Takecareofbusiness and Gemma's Curls finish second in stakes at Gulfstream Park. Takecareofbusiness' runner-up effort came over Gulfstream's all-weather Tapeta surface against open company in the Hollywood Beach Stakes, further proving his runners could stand up against more than fellow state-breds.
The stakes winners will come eventually for Bucchero, and when they do, he's got the kind of pipeline backing him up where I expect them to come in bunches.
Honorable Mentions:
- Good Magic (Hill 'n' Dale Farms): 29.80 percent
- Army Mule (Hill 'n' Dale Farms): 29.70 percent
The post The 2022 Freshman Sire Yearbook: Far More Than Just A ‘Big Three’ appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
