A horse being offered at a 2-year-olds in training sale has two main jobs: Breeze fast and sell for as much money as possible.
Fortunately, we've got figures to measure the success of both.
In this segment, we will attempt to pinpoint the most successful sires of the juvenile auction season by ranking each qualifying stallion by the median sale price and average breeze show time of their progeny, and combining those rankings to sort them all out.
Before we head into the 2023 auction season, we'll take a look back at last year's top performers in the juvenile auction space to provide a preview of what we might expect in the months to come.
Before we begin, there are a few important things to note.
First off, these power rankings provide a snapshot of how a stallion's juveniles performed under a very specific set of conditions. A middling-to-poor performance in these rankings does not mean a stallion is a dud, the same way a high ranking is a not a guarantee of on-track success or future commercial abundance.
There are plenty of top-end racetrack and commercial sires that historically don't do their best work sending their youngsters full-bore for an eighth of a mile, the same way several sires only tend to find their name in the papers when the fastest times are announced at the end of the breeze show.
Second, to provide the most apples-to-apples assessment, I had to adjust a few numbers.
I measured breeze show performance by averaging the times of each stallion's juveniles, which meant converting timing from fifths into tenths. It takes a bit of time to adjust your eye, but I've provided a handy chart to assist in the process.
Also, for the purposes of these rankings, I've only counted breeze times at an eighth of a mile. I'm glad to see more sellers electing to breeze a quarter-mile, but there still aren't enough of them doing it to provide a significant sample to compare stallions with each other.
To qualify for the list, a stallion needed to meet the following criteria:
– Five or more horses sold at major North American 2-year-olds in training sales in 2022 (OBS March, April, and June, Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream and Midlantic, and the Texas 2-year-old sale).
– Five or more horses that turned in a breeze time at an eighth of a mile (the horse didn't have to sell to be counted).
– Average 2-year-old sale price of $45,000 or more in 2022 (yes, my rankings are based on median sale price. These are the numbers I had to work with. For the most part, it would have only added depth at the bottom of the list, anyway).
Now that we've got all the exposition out of the way, let's take a look at how the rankings shook out.
The Overall Leader – Justify
Ashford Stud's Justify came into last year's juvenile auction season with all the hype befitting of a Triple Crown winner, and his foals certainly sold like it. What got him to the pinnacle of the list, though, is how fast his horses performed during the breeze shows.
For a stallion that didn't make his first start until February of his 3-year-old season, Justify's debut crop of juveniles broke the stopwatch during the under-tack shows of 2022, averaging a time of 10.120 seconds, safely ahead of second-place Bolt d'Oro at 10.188 seconds.
Justify had 15 juveniles go an eighth of a mile during the breeze shows, and eight of them went in :10 flat or faster.
The fastest of that group was Jovian, a colt out of the Majestic Warrior mare Runway Doll from the consignment of Eddie Woods, who covered an eighth in 9.8 seconds (remember, we're counting in tenths, so it would have been 9.4 on the screen) at the OBS March Sale. He ended up catching the eye of Japan's Katsumi Yoshida, and he dropped the hammer for $250,000.
On the commercial side, Justify enjoyed multiple situational boosts to help buoy his median sale price into a tie for second place with Medaglia d'Oro at $275,000. The market is always a little more keen on a first-crop sire, and a Triple Crown winner is almost always going to be placed at the front of that line. When they worked as quickly as they did, the money followed.
Justify had 28 juveniles sell during the 2022 auction season, led by Illustrated, a half-brother to Belmont Stakes winner Tapwrit, out of Appealing Zophie, who sold to the Coolmore partnership for $1.1 million at the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream sale. Wavertree Stables consigned Illustrated, as agent.
Leading Median Price – Curlin
Hall of Famer Curlin saw just eight juveniles go through the ring last year, but he made them count, posting a median sale price of $437,500, which was well clear of runners-up Justify and Medaglia d'Oro at $275,000.
It's a bit astounding that Curlin achieved a median that high without a seven-figure horse to his name in 2022, but he got to the top of the list with a steady diet of upper-market prices, led by Faustin, a colt out of multiple Grade 1 winner Hard Not to Like who sold to Michael Lund Petersen for $800,000 at the OBS Spring Sale. De Meric Sales consigned Faustin, as agent.
Curlin benefitted from a combination quality and scarcity in the 2022 juvenile market. It was common for many of the traditional commercial powerhouse sires to have a limited presence in last year's 2-year-old arena. Tapit had seven go through the ring, War Front offered five, and Gun Runner and Medaglia d'Oro each offered 12. High-level buyers are often keenly aware of how many opportunities they have to secure a runner by a top commercial sire at a given sale, and only having a handful in the catalog can create some helpful urgency for sellers.
Only one of Curlin's eight juveniles to go through the ring at a North American 2-year-old sale in 2022 changed hands for less than $200,000 – that being Checkitup from the de Meric consignment, who went to John Servis, agent, for $165,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale. If Curlin's lowest-priced juvenile of 2022 had been his median price, he'd have still finished in the top 10 in this group.
Curlin's success also flew in the face of the notion that a horse needs to clock a work in :10 or flat or faster to garner serious money in the 2-year-old sale arena. His average breeze time of 10.400 seconds (or :10.2 if you're counting in fifths) put him firmly in the middle of the pack, tying with fellow commercial behemoths Tapit and Gun Runner. Only one of his offerings, the aforementioned Faustin, breezed in :10 flat.
The slower times dragged Curlin down to 15th overall in the power rankings, but that's why I keep hammering home the point that this is not a ranking system of “good” sires or “bad” sires, but one of how well a sire's 2-year-olds achieved their two stated goals over the course of a particular season. I have no doubt there are plenty of sires above Curlin in these power rankings that would consider trading careers to be a best-case scenario.
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If you appreciate our work, you can support us by subscribing to our Patreon stream. Learn more.The Runner-Up – Bolt d'Oro
Bolt d'Oro ended up getting the last laugh over Justify when their first runners got to the track last year, securing top freshman sire honors by progeny earnings, but the race was as close on that front as it was in these power rankings.
The resident of Spendthrift Farm was in the top eight by both average breeze time and median sale price, which was made all the more impressive by the fact that he achieved those lofty figures paired with incredible bulk. He led all North American sires by the number of horses offered and sold during the 2022 juvenile sale season (56 offered, 45 sold), and no other sire with more than 30 juveniles sold posted a median greater than $100,000.
By that measure, Bolt d'Oro's median of $200,000 showed just how deep his bench went in 2022.
His season was led by Ruby Nell, a filly who sold to Spendthrift for $1.2 million to top the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream sale. Tom McCrocklin consigned, as agent. In total, Bolt d'Oro had seven horses sell for $500,000 or more during the juvenile sale season.
However, what truly propelled Bolt d'Oro to the silver medal position was the effort by his progeny during the breeze shows, where they averaged a one-furlong time of 10.188 seconds. He had 21 juveniles breeze in :10 flat or faster, including five that stopped the clock in 9.8 seconds. The only other sire to match the five sub-:10 workers in 2022 was the late More Than Ready.
The Value Sire – Upstart
This resident of Airdrie Stud posted the highest ranking of any sire to stand for $20,000 or less during the 2019 breeding season, finishing tied for 11th with Lane's End's City of Light.
The juveniles of 2022 came from Upstart's third crop, which were bred on a $10,000 advertised fee, and they benefitted greatly from their time in the ring coinciding with the rises of Zandon and Kathleen O. through the respective Kentucky Derby and Oaks ranks that spring.
Upstart's biggest contributor to his placement in the rankings came from his median sale price of $240,000, which placed him sixth in that category. His sample size was small, totaling just six horses sold, but a market urgently trying to capture the spark that Upstart was causing on the classic trail went in on them, led by The Great Maybe, a filly out of the winning Simon Pure mare Pure Legacy who sold to Lael Stable for $425,000 at the OBS March Sale; another offering from de Meric.
Under the stopwatch, Upstart's juveniles averaged a breeze time of 10.350 seconds, good for 28th among the 94 qualifying sires. It was a consistent group, with two breezing in :10 flat including The Great Maybe, and none working slower than 10.8 seconds.
Timing can mean everything when it comes to selling a 2-year-old. None of the Upstarts offered in 2022 sold for more than $55,000 as yearlings, but having a hot sire at the right time, along with solid breeze show records to back it up, led to several home runs.
It's impossible to forecast which value sires might take off in the spring when pinhookers are buying yearlings in the fall, but correct guesses are what keep a lot of people in the game.
The post The 2022 2-Year-Old Sale Sire Power Rankings: Justify Earns Another Crown appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
