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Equibase Analysis: Tide Of The Sea Could Lead A Merry Chase In Calumet Turf Cup

The Grade 2, $1 million Calumet Turf Cup Stakes this Saturday at Kentucky Downs drew a full field of 12, plus four also-eligibles, all vying to win an automatic entry into the Breeders' Cup Turf in November.

Arklow, who won the race in 2018 and 2020, is back, as is 2019 Turf Cup winner Zulu Alpha. Channel Cat won the 2018 Dueling Grounds Derby on the course and has not run over it since but won the Grade 1 Man O'War Stakes in May. Arklow won the Grade 3 Louisville Stakes in May at this marathon 12 furlong trip but has not threatened in two similar races since then. Similarly, Zulu Alpha, who finished third behind Arklow last year, has run poorly in both starts in 2021.

Imperador most recently finished second in the Grade 1 United Nations Stakes at the distance of one mile and three-eighths but has never finished in the top three in two races at this distance. Bluegrass Parkway is one of five horses in the Turf Cup trained by Mike Maker (plus one of the four also-eligibles) and just won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes at the distance of one mile and one-quarter but has never run this far. Then there's Tide of the Sea, another of the Maker trainees, who won the Grade 3 William L. McKnight Stakes in January and who could be the one in front from the start.

Fantasioso could be a factor in the Turf Cup as he finished second this past June in the Grade 2 Belmont Gold Cup at the distance of two miles on turf. Similarly, Ajourneytofreedom (another trained by Maker) missed by a neck in the Grade 3 John B. Connally Stakes at the distance in January and is another who, if able to repeat his best effort in a stakes race similar to this one, could have a say in the outcome. Breakpoint won the Group 1 El Ensayo Stakes in his Chilean homeland last December. That race carried a $150,000 purse and is one of the biggest in South American racing so he could fit as a contender in this field.

Crossfirehurricane, Epic Bromance and Glynn County round out the main body of the field, while Artemus Eagle, Big Dreaming, Dynadrive and Time for Trouble are the also-eligibles who can run if any of the horses in the main body of the race withdraw.

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Main contenders:

Tide of the Sea moved from the barn of Bill Mott to Mike Maker's care between his starts in August, 2019 and June, 2020. Since then he has won three times and finished second four other times in 11 races. The best of those in terms of his ™ Equibase® Speed Figures was last October at Keeneland when, at the distance of the Turf Cup, Tide of the Sea led from start to finish to earn a 107 figure. Two races later Tide of the Sea won the William L. McKnight Stakes in January at the 12 furlong distance of this race, then three races later he led from the start and settled for second in the Grand Couturier Stakes on turf the Turf Cup distance.

The key to the most successful finishes for Tide of the Sea came when he was sent to the lead from the start, resulting in all three of his wins in the last year. Jockey Luis Saez, fresh off winning the Saratoga 2021 riding title, has ridden Tide of the Sea just once previously, in the Grand Couturier, when Saez was aggressive from the opening of the gate and a race in which although Tide of the Sea was passed late, he was beaten by Gufo, who went on to win the Grade 1 Sword Dancer Stakes four weeks later. In this year's Turf Cup, I expect Saez to be equally aggressive from the start, and with no other true “need the lead” type in the field, Tide of the Sea can post the mild upset to win this race.

Ajourneytofreedom and Glynn County both appear capable of winning if Tide of the Sea can't go all the way in front. They're both also trained by Mike Maker, with Glynn County owned by Three Diamonds Farm, who owns Tide of the Sea. The most recent race in which Ajourneytofreedom tried this marathon turf trip was in mid-July at Saratoga when, after relaxing in sixth (of seven) for the first mile and one-quarter, Ajourneytofreedom moved decisively from fifth, then to fourth, then to the lead, eventually winning by a neck. That effort earned a 111 ™ figure not far from his best, a 113 figure earned when missing by a neck in the similar John B. Connally Stakes in January. With the second leading jockey in all of North America, Irad Ortiz, Jr., getting aboard Ajourneytofreedom for the first time, if the horse can stay close to Tide of the Sea and Channel Cat in the early stages, he could repeat either of those efforts in representative races to win.

Glynn County also recently won at this mile and one-half turf trip, in June, with a similar effort to the one Ajourneytofreedom put forth in July. In that race, Glynn County sat in fourth in the early stages then rallied to win by a couple of lengths with a quick burst of speed. That effort only earned a 103 ™ figure which was exceeded two races later when the colt earned a career best 109 figure finishing third in the Mr. D Stakes (formerly the Arlington Million) at the shorter distance of a mile and one quarter. Back to the longer trip, Glynn County could be the one passing stablemate Tide of the Sea for the score.

Secondary contenders:

Dynadrive will need help from one or more horses withdrawing from the 12 horse main body of the field to run in the Turf Cup as he is on the also-eligible list, but he must be given some consideration if he does run. First or second in 11 of 17 races, Dynadrive joined the Maker barn last October via a $50,000 claim. His best efforts came in his last two starts when second then first, the latter of the two earning a 104 figure which can be improved upon as Jose Ortiz rides back following being in the saddle for the very first time. Although the win in August in his most recent race came at the distance of a mile and one quarter, Dynadrive is bred to handle this mile and one-half trip and is another who can lay close to the likely slow early pace and be in the picture at the wire.

Bluegrass Parkway just won the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Cup Stakes at Ellis Park, the same race Arklow used as a prep to win the Turf Cup in 2018. The effort earned Bluegrass Parkway a career best 105 figure and considering it was only the horse's fourth start since joining the powerful Maker barn and considering jockey Julien Leparoux rides him right back there's a chance he can run much better than his high odds will suggest is possible.

As to the three horses which may be favored by bettors, I feel they have less chance to win then their odds make it appear and for the most part I am going to take a stand against them winning. Arklow, who won this race in 2018 as a four year old and last year as a six year old (with a 116 figure), does not appear to be entering this year's Turf Cup in the same form, having finished sixth in the United Nations Stakes in July and seventh last month in the Del Mar Handicap. 2019 Turf Cup winner Zulu Alpha is now an eight year old, is winless since July of 2020 and has finished third, fifth and seventh in his three starts since then. However, it must be noted that the best of the three was in last year's Turf Cup where Zulu Alpha finished third with a 114 figure. Channel Cat, who won the Dueling Grounds Derby (one mile and five-sixteenths) as a three year old in 2018, has a bit more chance to win as compared to Arklow and Zulu Alpha as he won the Man O'War Stakes in May with a 113 figure. However, not only has he run poorly in two races since the Man O'War when finishing seventh and fourth, Channel Cat may not be as good as this mile and one-half distance as he is a one mile and three-eighths, with his record at this trip just 1-1-1 in seven starts.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Breakpoint (CHI) (109), Crossfirehurricane (106), Epic Bromance (100), Fantasioso (ARG) (115) and Imperador (ARG) (114), plus also-eligibles Artemus Eagle (101), Big Dreaming (106) and Time for Trouble (103)

Main Win Contenders (in probability/preference order):
Tide of the Sea
Ajourneytofreedom
Glynn County
Dynadrive

Calumet Turf Cup Stakes – Grade 2
Race 9 at Kentucky Downs
Saturday, Sept. 11 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One-Half on Turf
Three Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $1 Million

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R Adios Jersey Wins Charles Town Oaks To Remain Unbeaten In Five Starts

R Adios Jersey was hustled to the front at the start under Paco Lopez and was never headed en route to a 3 1/4-length victory in Friday night's $400,000, Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks in Charles Town, W. Va.

Pauline's Pearl finished second, with Allworthy third and 7-10 favorite Caramel Swift fourth in the field of 10 3-year-old fillies.

The winner, a Florida-bred 3-year-old filly by Adios Charlie out of Marion Theatre, by Montbrook, paid $12.80 as the second wagering choice after running seven furlongs on a fast track in 1:24.37. R Adios Jersey set fractions of :22.24, :46.27 and 1;11.06 along the way. The filly earned $230,400.

“I sent her and I got her into the race very good,” said Lopez. “I know the horse and she's very fast. I tried to save her a little bit because the last time I rode her at Tampa, she got a little tired. … I wanted to go and try and sit second with her but the owners said I had to send her and I have to listen to the boss.”

“Turning for home she started to get really tired. She was running very hard all the time, that filly. But Georgina [Baxter] the trainer told me, Paco, that filly is ready.”

R Adios Jersey is owned by Averill Racing LLC and ATM Racing. She is trained by Georgina Baxter, a former exercise rider who in 2018 took over the racing stable of Ralph Ziadie, whose Florida trainer's license was not renewed by regulators after an unusually high number of medication violations. Ziadie's son, Kirk, is serving a six-year ban for repeated medication violations. Baxter has won at a 27% clip since taking out her trainer's license.

R Adios Jersey, bred in Florida by Ocala Stud and Mike O'Farrelll, won her previous four starts in Florida, including a stakes triumph at Tampa Bay Downs in her most recent start on March 28.

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Saffie Joseph, Jr. Points Mischevious Alex To Forego At Saratoga

Trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. said Cash is King and LC Racing's Mischevious Alex had a good breeze back on Friday in his first timed work since an off-the-board finish in the Grade 1 Alfred G. Vanderbilt on July 31 at Saratoga Race Course in Saratoga Springs, N.Y.

The 4-year-old Into Mischief bay worked a half-mile solo in :48.45 on the main track in preparation for a start in the $600,000 Grade 1 Forego at seven furlongs on the main track on Travers Day August 28.

“He's bounced out of the race good. We haven't seen anything to deter us running back in the Forego,” Joseph, Jr. said. “He got the thumps last time pretty bad. Hopefully, that was the reason for his performance.”

A multiple graded stakes winner, Mischevious Alex has won 3-of-5 starts this year, including scores in the Grade 3 Gulfstream Park Sprint at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla., in February and the Grade 1 Carter Handicap in April at Aqueduct Racetrack in Ozone Park, N.Y.

Joseph Jr. said Friday's breeze have him confidence that Mischevious Alex could return to form in the Forego.

“He went a good half by himself. Hopefully, the real Alex shows up and if he does, he'll have a good chance,” Joseph, Jr. said.

Slam Dunk Racing, Madaket Stables, Wonder Stables, and Michael Nentwig's Drain the Clock, a sophomore son of Maclean's Music, also breezed Friday covering a half-mile in :48.83 on the main track.

Boasting a record of six wins and two seconds from nine starts, Drain the Clock bested Jackie's Warrior by a neck on June 5 at Belmont in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens.

Last out, in the 6 1/2-furlong Grade 2 Amsterdam, Jackie's Warrior turned the tables with a romping 7 1/4-length score over a sloppy and sealed Saratoga main track.

Joseph Jr. said he is hopeful Drain the Clock will one-up his familiar foe in the $500,000 Grade 1 H. Allen Jerkens Memorial on Travers Day.

“No one was beating Jackie that day. He ran dynamite. Maybe our horse didn't run his best that day but all credit to Jackie,” Joseph, Jr. said. “We have no excuse. We had a good trip. The record is one and one. He's beat us once, we beat him once. We'll try again in the Allen Jerkens.”

John Fanelli, Cash is King, LC Racing, Paul Braverman, and Team Hanley's Ny Traffic, a 4-year-old New York-bred son of Cross Traffic, breezed a half-mile in :48 flat Sunday on the main track.

The talented colt finished second in a trio of graded events last year, including the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby in March at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., the Grade 3 Matt Winn in May at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., and the Grade 1 Haskell at Monmouth Park in Oceanport, N.J., in July in which he finished just a nose back of Authentic.

Ny Traffic won his seasonal debut in May at Belmont by 6 3/4-lengths sprinting seven furlongs against fellow state-breds in an optional claimer and followed with a close second in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile in June at Monmouth.

Last out, Ny Traffic faded to fourth in the nine-furlong Grade 3 Monmouth Cup on July 17.

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“He went good this morning. It was his first breeze back since Monmouth, I had him in 47 and 4. It was a good work back,” Joseph Jr. said. “There's a possibility he could go in the Forego or the Charles Town Classic.”

Joseph Jr. said Ny Traffic will breeze again next weekend before he decides on cutting back to seven furlongs for the Forego or stretching out to nine furlongs for the Grade 2 Charles Town Classic at Charles Town in Charles Town, W.Va. on August 27.

Overall, Joseph, Jr. said he has been pleased with Ny Traffic's performances this season.

“He won his debut at Belmont and in his second race at Monmouth he ran second but it was a good race,” Joseph, Jr. said. “Last time he disappointed a little bit if you just look at the running lines, but the reality is that he acted up pre-race back at the barn and I think he lost his race there. It wasn't a true run.”

Joseph, Jr. said e Five Racing Thoroughbreds' Gibberish will turn back to nine furlongs for the $120,000 Summer Colony on August 22 at the Spa.

Last out, the 4-year-old daughter of Lea was a game second to Miss Marissa in the 10-furlong Grade 2 Delaware Handicap on July 10.

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‘It Doesn’t Get Any Better’: Utley Wins Stakes At Home With Yes It’s Ginger

Mike “Hotdog” Utley, this Bud's for you!

Utley, who runs his family's Edward Utley Jr. Inc. beer (including Budweiser) distributorship in Henderson, got his biggest thrill in horse racing as favored Yes It's Ginger wore down the speedy Elle Z for a 1 1/4-length triumph in the $100,000 Kentucky Downs TVG Preview Ladies Sprint at Ellis Park. That's where the 59-year-old Utley has been going to the races since he was 12, as well as the hometown track for his eight partners who collectively own 25 percent of the 5-year-old mare with majority owner Brilliant Racing and Tagg Team Racing.

“It's great, in front of everybody,” Utley said. “I don't know how you can describe it… There will be a lot of Bud. I was crossing my fingers, trust me.”

He said the victory ranks No. 1 in his racing career as owner and fan “and it doesn't get any better.”

The Ladies Sprint was part of a turf stakes quartet Sunday that wrapped up the two-day Kentucky Downs TVG Preview Weekend at the RUNHAPPY meet at Ellis Park.

Marcelino Pedroza rode the Greg Foley-trained Yes It's Ginger for the first time, pressing Elle Z through a stiff pace before edging clear late. The Foley-trained Skinny Dip finished another 2 1/4 lengths back in third in the full field of 12 fillies and mares.

“I watched the replays on her and she's quick out of the gate,” said Pedroza, who earlier this meet won the Good Lord Stakes on the Foley-trained Bango. “She was quick out of the gate when she ran (finishing second June 3 at Churchill Downs) against Elle Z. We didn't want to be in the lead. We just wanted to sit there and make sure Elle Z felt the pressure. Turning for home, I asked her to go and she responded like a Quarter Horse. She was running in the end and was very impressive.”

Yes It's Ginger was the only one of the four Kentucky Downs TVG Preview Weekend stakes winners Sunday who didn't set a course record over the very firm turf. But she came close, powering 5 1/2 furlongs in 1:00.71, just off Totally Boss' mark of 1:00.26 set in 2019. Yes It's Ginger, a son of Yes It's True out of Ginger Light, paid $7 to win.

The mare now is 3 for 3 at Ellis Park. Brilliant Racing approached Foley about buying half-interest in Yes It's Ginger when she was a 4-year-old maiden who'd had arthroscopic surgery for a bone chip. Foley liked what he saw and brought in Utley's group, which had been looking for a horse and wanted to be part of the Foley family's Tagg Team Racing.

Yes It's Ginger promptly won a maiden and allowance race last summer at Ellis Park off a 13-month layoff. She came into this race off victory in Lone Star Park's $75,000 Chicken Fried Stakes in her last start. That made her the first stakes-winner for Utley, as well as for Louisville-based Brilliant Racing and Tagg Team, the partnership headed by trainer Greg Foley, wife Sheree and their sons Travis and Alex.

It was no sure thing that Yes It's Ginger would run at Ellis Park. She also was entered for a turf stakes Wednesday at Indiana Grand. While Foley thought the Indiana race's five-furlong distance would be even better, and the competition softer, the forecast for rain this coming week helped make the decision to stay put at Ellis.

“When we decided to run here, there were a lot of happy people, the boys from Henderson,” Foley said. “They're a great group, along with Brilliant, and then our own little group, our family.

“She's just a gutsy little filly. She gives you all every time you run her. From this time last year, when she broke her maiden over here at Ellis, she's just done nothing but gotten better all the time. She ran very impressive in Texas last time and again today. She's just a nice filly.”

Foley also was happy with Skinny Dip, who was making her stakes debut. The goal was to get at least a stakes-placing for the well-bred Into Mischief filly, a mission accomplished.

Yes It's Ginger now is 6-5-0 in 18 starts, earning $295,511. The $40,000 Ocala 2-year-old purchase in 2018 — the first horse bought by Brilliant Racing— was picked out by Brilliant founding members Natalie Gils and Brandon Stauble.

“She's been incredibly special to us — being the first one we bought, giving her all that time not knowing if she was going to come back,” Gils said. “… When it came to the point where we had to sell (part of) her, having the Foleys step in, it's just been a great relationship with them. It was really a blessing in disguise.”

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