Bill Finley | Horse Racing Free Tips

Letter to the Editor: Paul Berube

Bill Finley's report (Week In Review) in the Feb. 9 edition of TDN on NYRA's action to restrict wagering on its Pick 5 and Pick 6 wagers by computer-assisted wagering (CAW) players caught my attention, as does any article written on this form of wagering, which I call computer robotic wagering or bots for short.

My experience with the bots and their very smart and well- capitalized owner managers goes back 20 years or so. Then, as now, my opinion on wagering by the bots is that over the long haul, it is destructive to the pari-mutuel business. Bill makes the good points that the bots are pumping millions upon millions into race track pools and that this handle is coveted by tracks. Left unsaid, however, is the very real fact that wagering done via bots is totally reactive to pool money wagered by all other players, whether you call them normal, regulars, casual fans, squares or dumb money.

When the mathematical formulas used by the bots see an imbalance or value in the pools made by other players, this is when the bots craft and place bets to capture the perceived value. Naturally, the most effective time for these types of wagers to be made is as late as possible before pools close and this is why, on a daily basis, straight wagering odds and probable payoffs frequently drop sharply in the last wagering cycle. It cannot be overstated that the daily action of the bots is totally dependent on the other money coming from all other players. If these players wager less for whatever reason, the bots will also reduce proportionately . The life blood of the bots is other peoples' money and the only growth in bots wagering comes from this money.

Earlier I labeled bots wagering as destructive to pari-mutuel wagering. When the bots win their wagers, the normal or regular players experience reduced payoffs which over time means less money in their pockets and less money to churn. When bots win, that normal churn factor is lost, because again, the bots only wager in proportion to the “other” money in the pools. When they hit in the big Pick 5/6 pools, their winnings or profits likely go into lifestyle purchases or other investments and thus lost for good insofar as pari-mutuel betting.

In the short term, the liquidity provided by bots wagering is enticing to race tracks, but in the long term–and racing today is squarely in the long term–the smaller payouts to other bettors, the tremendous money shift or negative settlements from host tracks and off-track wagering venues to the locations that host the bots means that an untold amount of churn has been and continues to be lost. I would offer that this is a major reason why annual pari-mutuel handle totals in the U.S. have not seen any real growth over these many years.

Finley also referred to the payment of rebates to the computer teams or players. The de facto increase in takeout to all other bettors and inherent unfairness to them is a whole other story that is worthy of further analysis.

So where does racing as a whole go from here? For sure it was easier to accept bots wagering into our pools than it will ever be to effectively control or eliminate it. But at some point in the future, racing operators will be forced to confront this reality. For racing to expend effort to create new fans and bettors is indeed a worthy venture especially for the bots who always need fresh money in their business model.

Paul W. Berube, Retired President , Thoroughbred Racing Protective Bureau

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The TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for January 14

With the year having just begun, it will take a while for the picture for the GI Kentucky Oaks to come into focus. For now, the fillies who thrived last year dominate this Top 10 list, but that can, and likely will, change as the calendar works its way toward the first Friday in May and new names emerge in the major preps for the Oaks.

It is, at the very least, a solid group, headed by GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Vequist, who will be named the champion 2-year-old filly of 2020. For her, and several others on the list, it will all come down to whether or not they peaked at two or if they have made a successful transition from their freshmen campaigns to their 3-year-old campaigns.

Saturday’s racing will include the first 2021 Oaks prep of any kind as a field of nine will compete in the Silverbulletday S. at Fair Grounds. All eyes will be on Sun Path, a blowout winner of an allowance race in New Orleans last month. She is trained by Brad Cox, who won last year’s Oaks with Shedaresthedevil (Daredevil).

1). VEQUIST (Nyquist–Vero Amore, by Mineshaft)

With victories in the GI Spinaway S. and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last year, she was clearly the most accomplished 2-year-old filly of 2020. There’s nothing not to like about the daughter of Nyquist, who has displayed speed, class and the ability to win around two turns and at a mile-and-a-sixteenth.

Soon to be named the champion 2-year-old filly of 2020, Vequist had her first work of 2021 Saturday when she breezed a half-mile in 49.45 at Palm Meadows.

“Right after the Breeders’ Cup we sent her to Barry Eisman’s place in Ocala for a little R & R,” trainer Butch Reid said. “She had a nice six weeks off while there and I then brought her to Palm Meadows. She had her first breeze Saturday and went a nice half-mile in 49 and change. That served to wake her up. All systems are go.”

And how has she done since her break?

“There are a couple of guys in my barn here at Palm Meadows who happened to be in our barn last summer at Saratoga and they remarked how much she had grown and how much weight she had put on since last summer,” Reid said. “Sometimes, it’s a little deceiving to your own eyes when you see them every day, but these guys hadn’t seen her in six months and they thought she looked like a different horse. They did a sensational job with her at Ocala. She’s put on weight and she’s really maturing.”

Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Feb. 27
Kentucky Oaks Points: 24

2). SUN PATH (Munnings–Touch the Star, by Tapit)

Could be the best among the “new faces” that did not run in the Breeders’ Cup. After finishing second in her debut, the ‘TDN Rising Star’ won a maiden at Churchill by three lengths and followed that up with a 12 3/4-length romp in an allowance on Dec. 18 at Fair Grounds. She is a full-sister to Bonny South, the winner of the 2020 GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

“At this stage of the game, she’s better [than Bonny South],” Cox said. “She showed more this summer than Bonny showed as a 2-year-old. She’s got a long way to go to catch up to Bonny’s accomplishments, but at this stage of the game, there’s more talent and speed there and she does things maybe a touch easier.”

Owned by Juddmonte Farms, trained by Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux, she is certainly in capable hands. Cox has won two of the last three runnings of the Kentucky Oaks.

Her one flaw may be how she gets out of the gate. She broke through the gate prior to the start of the allowance race and she also had gate problems in her two previous starts.

Will be in action this weekend, heading the Silverbulletday.

Next Start: Silverbulletday S., FG, Jan. 16
Kentucky Oaks Points: 0

3). DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (Into Mischief–Gottahaveadream, by Indian Charlie)

Like Vequist, Dayoutoftheoffice spent some time in Ocala relaxing after she finished second in the Juvenile Fillies and only recently returned to the Tampa Bay Downs barn of trainer Tim Hamm.

“She’s put on some weight and she seems happy,” Hamm said. “She’s doing great.”

The daughter of Into Mischief snuck up on a lot of people when she won the GIII Schuylerville S. at Saratoga by six lengths as a 19-1 outsider. She followed that up with a two-length win in the GI Frizette S. and was the third choice in the Juvenile Fillies at 4-1. She ran well that day to finish second, but it was a performance that raises some questions. In her first try around two turns, she led in the stretch before Vequist ran by her for the win. Could she have distance limitations? That’s a question that will likely be answered early on in 2021.

Hamm said she will make her 3-year-old debut in either the Davona Dale or the GIII Honeybee S. on March 6 at Oaklawn.

Next Start: Undecided
Kentucky Oaks Points: 18

4). TRAVEL COLUMN (Frosted–Swingit, by Victory Gallop)

Another Brad Cox runner and ‘TDN Rising Star’ who prospered later on in the year and now has designs on the Kentucky Oaks. A $850,000 purchase at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling sale, she didn’t run particularly well when a distant third in the GI Darley Alcibiades S., but was a much different horse when recording an impressive win in the GII Golden Rod S. at Churchill Downs. She wound up last behind moderate fractions after being knocked around at the start and had to alter course in the stretch to find running room. Still, she prevailed by a length. Daughter of Frosted looks like she can improve and should be a major player on the road to the Oaks.

Next Start: GII Rachel Alexandra S. presented by Fasig-Tipton, FG, Feb. 13
Kentucky Oaks Points: 12

5). MALATHAAT (Curlin–Dreaming of Julia, by A.P. Indy)

There appears to be a lot of upside to this filly who went for seven figures at the yearling sales and now runs for Shadwell Stable. The ‘TDN Rising Star’ is three for three and already has a win at a mile-and-an-eighth, in the GII Demoiselle S. at Aqueduct. That she is by Curlin suggest that the best is yet to come.

In some respects, the Demoiselle was not her most impressive performance. Sent off at 2-5, she looked beaten in mid-stretch but had enough class to grind out a win by three-quarters of a length in a race run over a sloppy track.

“She was never comfortable and not running into a spot I wanted,” jockey John Velazquez said afterward. “She never really put that much effort into keeping a spot. Finally, when I tipped her out heading to the quarter-pole, she started running.”

While this could be the year that Malathaat blossoms, she will need to run faster. Her best Beyer number so far is the 83 she got when winning the Tempted S. She got a 76 in the Demoiselle.

Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Feb. 27
Kentucky Oaks Points: 10

6). GIRL DADDY (Uncle Mo–Cara Marie, by Unbridled’s Song)

Daughter of Uncle Mo was a creditable third in the Juvenile Fillies, losing the place position by a nose, in what was her first career defeat. She earned a 90 Beyer figure that day, the best of her brief career. She had been impressive in her two earlier starts, a maiden win at Ellis Park and a two-length victory in the GIII Pocahontas at Churchill Downs. There are no serious knocks on the ‘TDN Rising Star’, but she may have to improve to be able to beat the likes of Vequist and some others. Will try to give trainer Dale Romans his first Oaks win.

Next Start: Undecided
Kentucky Oaks Points: 14

7). SIMPLY RAVISHING (Laoban–Four Wishes, by More Than Ready)

Hard to get a read on this filly. Trainer Ken McPeek, so adept at finding quality horses at the sales for modest prices, plucked this one out of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling sale for $50,000. She won her first three races, including the GI Alcibiades, and it looked like she might be on her way to championship honors. Instead, she finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup and followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the Golden Rod as the 7-10 favorite. At the very least, she will need to return to the form she showed in the Alcibiades to be considered a top Oaks contender. Did she peak too early?

Next Start: Undecided
Kentucky Oaks Points: 13

8). KALYPSO (Brody’s Cause–Malibu Cove, by Malibu Moon)

Early indications are that the California-based 3-year-old fillies are not a particularly strong group. The Beyer numbers for most of their races have been on the slow side. For now, Kalypso looks as good as any. A $240,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Select Yearling Sale, she improved quite a bit to win the GII Santa Ynez S. over stablemate Frosteria (Frosted), who is still a maiden, for the Bob Baffert barn. The Santa Ynez is a seven-furlong race, so she still needs to show that she can thrive at longer distances. While this one is not worthy as of yet of cracking the top three or four, it would be a mistake to discount anything that Baffert sends out.

Next Start: GII Las Virgenes S., SA, Feb. 6
Kentucky Oaks Points: 14

9). VARDA (Distorted Humor–She’ll Be Right, by Sky Mesa)

Another horse from the Baffert stable, the good news is that she is a Grade I winner, which she accomplished in the GI Starlet S. at Los Alamitos. The bad news is that she hasn’t run nearly fast enough to be considered among the best in her division. Sent off at 17-1 in the five-horse Starlet, her time for the mile-and-a-sixteenth was 1:44 2/5, good for just a 68 Beyer. That puts her 25 points behind Vequist’s best. That doesn’t mean she can’t improve. But will need to post a significantly faster number before climbing to the top of this list.

Next Start: GII Las Virgenes S., SA, Feb. 6
Kentucky Oaks Points: 14

10). SOUPER SENSATIONAL (Curlin–Kateri, by Indian Charlie)

She’s never run outside of Canada and has only raced on a synthetic surface, so she is a bit of an unknown as she heads into Saturday’s Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds. A $725,000 buy at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling sale, she runs for Live Oak Plantation and trainer Mark Casse. The ‘TDN Rising Star’ looked outstanding in her two career starts, winning easily in a maiden event at Woodbine before following that up with a four-length win in the Glorious Song S. Another who is by Curlin, so there’s no reason why she won’t keep getting better.

Next Start: Silverbulletday S., FG, Jan. 16
Kentucky Oaks Points: 0

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Woodbine CEO Says Sports Betting Bill Could Devastate Canadian Racing Industry

A bill that would legalize single-event sports wagering in Canada and is now being debated by members of Parliament in the Canadian House of Commons would have a disastrous impact on racing, warns Woodbine CEO Jim Lawson. The bill does not allow for the racetracks to be part of the sports betting universe and, perhaps even more worrisome, it would allow non-racing betting sites to take fixed-odds bets on racing without having to share any of the revenue with the industry.

“This is a real threat to the industry and certainly the Canadian government cannot ignore horse racing in terms of this legislation or they risk, ultimately, putting the horse racing industry under,” Lawson said.

Lawson said that under normal circumstances he wouldn’t expect that the bill, as it is currently written, would go very far. But he fears that the Canadian government is so desperate for money to deal with the numerous expenses that have come about with the pandemic that lawmakers might jump at the opportunity to legalize sports betting and the quick fix it represents.

“This bill has gained momentum,” he said. “The economic realities that COVID has created in terms of health and education costs means it will take years to catch up. Other than increasing people’s taxes, and we are taxed enough in Canada, they have to look for alternative sources of revenue and this is an obvious one.”

According to the website casino.org, the bill has backing from members of the four largest parties in the House of Commons–Liberal, Conservative, Bloc Québécois, and New Democratic–and a member from each spoke in support.

With more and more U.S. states legalizing sports betting in the U.S. and with governments everywhere needing revenue, it is no surprise that efforts have begun to legalize sports betting in Canada. But what sets this bill apart from ones in the U.S. that have made sports betting legal is that it lumps fixed-odds bets on racing in with sports betting. The same firms that are given the green light to take sports bets can also offer fixed-odds sports bets and would not be required to turn over any of the money to the sport.

“We are the producers of the content and we are paying the operating costs of running the races and paying the purses,” Lawson said. “We should be the beneficiaries of fixed-odds betting on horse racing. That’s just common sense. You can’t allow someone else to encroach upon our only revenue source. You can’t take away that revenue source by allowing fixed-odds wagering on a product we are producing and pay to produce.”

While allowing outside firms to profit off of Canadian races is bad enough, Lawson said that it would be particularly troublesome for Woodbine to be left out when it comes to fixed-odds betting, which he believes will be successful.

“Look at Australia, where fixed-odds wagering now accounts for 60% of the wagering on horse racing,” he said. “What if that phenomenon were to repeat itself here and we lost 60% of our wagering? It would put us out of business if we didn’t either control or participate in fixed-odds wagering on horse racing.

“Young bettors, for the most part, don’t like pari-mutuel wagering. They find it complicated. They are used to fixed-odds betting on football. They’re tough to convert to pari-mutuel wagering. Your new audience, new gamblers, it’s likely that they are a fixed-odds person.”

Even if the language in the bill is changed to allow the tracks to operate and profit from fixed-odds wagering, Lawson would not see that as a victory. He wants Woodbine to be among the companies that get a cut of the sports betting pie, which, he reasons, will be so large that it will cannibalize betting on racing. He also sees sports betting as a way to end the need for the subsidies the government is now paying to support racing. In Ontario, the government hands out about $100 million a year to support the sport.

“The Ontario government is subsidizing horse racing through a funding agreement,” he said. “If you want to do the smart thing and totally eliminate any subsidy that we get, let us make up for the money through sports betting. We are not looking for a monopoly. We know there are casinos and others that will be able to take sports bets, we just want to be cut in. We deserve it because of our skill set and our technology. You’d be partnering with a company that is well positioned to conduct sports wagering.”

Lawson said that the solution is for the government to go back to the drawing board and come up with a bill that will include racing’s needs.

“We’ve got a pretty valid argument as to why this legislation needs to just pause and then do it in such a way that it protects the horse racing industry and in so doing allows a company like Woodbine to be a participant,” he said. “Not only would that support horse racing, it would support all the jobs across the country.”

Lawson does not think the bill will be voted on until some time early in 2021. That gives Woodbine and other industry leaders a chance to plead their case and get the language in the legislation changed. But there’s no guarantee that will work, and that is what has Lawson frightened about Woodbine’s future.

“The minute we heard about this bill we put up our hands and said, ‘Wait a second, the horse racing industry and the racetracks have to play a role in this,'” he said. “If not, we could have some very serious problems.”

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More Letters on Tracks Gone But Not Forgotten

In Sunday’s TDN, we published Bill Finley’s ode to shuttered racetracks, and asked others to try to beat his number of 28 at which he had attended live racing. The letters continue to pour in from readers sharing their own memories of their favorites. Here is a sampling.

Thanks for the article about all the race tracks that are now gone. I also grew up in Philadelphia and my parents were big horse race fans. I got my first exposure to horse racing at Delaware Park since they let children attend the races. Later I attended both Garden State Park and Atlantic City. When Pennsylvania legalized betting on horse racing I also attended Liberty Bell Park and got my first exposure to seeing winter racing. As noted those winter dates included some really cold days. When I became an adult I introduced my parents to some of the other racetracks around the country and made many trips to Hialeah as well as visiting Suffolk Downs, and the pre-fire-destroyed Arlington Park. I also visited on my own some of the other tracks mentioned such as Bowie, Bay Meadows and Hollywood Park. My job included traveling to other parts of our country and if there was a race track nearby I would always try to attend if live racing or simulcasting if it was offered. I have also visited the major tracks and attended all of the Triple Crown races. But as noted I preferred visiting the older, smaller, working-class tracks like Waterford Park now Mountaineer in West Va. As you can tell from all the old tracks I have visited I am an older fan. So I have seen first-hand how expanded gambling options and more tracks having longer meets have made it harder for any track to survive today. Let’s hope we are not the last generation to enjoy the excitement of attending a live horse race near our hometowns.
-John Chambers

Having spent much of my wayward youth on the Cape in Mass., my recollections of the Marshfield and Weymouth Fairs hold a special place in the horse racing crevices of my heart. Wasn’t there a Brockton Fair that had a one week meet, after Marshfield and Weymouth? Seems to me I recall going.. But it would be in the 60’s, if my memory serves. Anyway, thanks for the memories
—Tom Mina

Bill,
You wrote an entertaining but bittersweet tale.
I’ve been to 116 tracks worldwide (counting harness) but you’re way ahead of me on ones that no longer are running: Suffolk, Atlantic City, Hialeah, Hollywood Park, Bay Meadows, Portland Meadows, Greenwood (Toronto), Calder, Hippodrome de Montreal, Ladbrokes, DRC, Roosevelt. Just 12.

I’m sure if you counted harness that you’d have many more.
–Ed McNamara

Loved your piece that a friend passed on to me.

While my experience at North American tracks is not as extensive as yours, like you and your father, I’ve always tried to find new tracks whenever I traveled. I’ve done that throughout my travels, which fortunately have been extensive. I’ve even gone to a track outside of Paris that was later shut down: Evry.

Like you, I spent my formative tracks years in the U.S. in Massachusetts, when I was a graduate student at Brandeis in the 60s.

Two tracks that I went to then were Narragansett Park and Lincoln Downs. I guess by the time you were in Massachusetts, they’d been gone too. While Lincoln was still lively, Narragansett was on its last legs and was sad. I also went to Timonium once, visiting my parents in DC.

Like you in Philly, a colleague and I would pause our lab work in Waltham, drive the Mass Turnpike and then the tunnel to Suffolk. We arrived after the 6th, when it was free to enter. We’d pick up a program from someone leaving and bet four races. Then back to the lab the same way we came. Weekends were dedicated to Rockingham, easy to get to from Waltham: take 128 north to I-93, which led directly to the track. Lots of people there in those days.

I moved to Toronto in 1967 so my U.S. tracks days have been episodic since then. By the time I arrived here all the original tracks dotted around the city had been shuttered by EP Taylor as he consolidated racing at Woodbine, which then became Old Woodbine, then Greenwood and is now a park and housing. Fort Erie is only held together by political handouts, abandoned by the Ontario Jockey Club. It was a lovely summer track, not as grand as Saratoga, but with the same spirit.

All the best,
–Manuel Buchwald

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