between the hedges | Horse Racing Free Tips

Between The Hedges: Importance Of New York’s Breeding Program

The following is the latest edition of a bi-weekly series entitled Between The Hedges, discussing the business of betting with a focus on trending wagering topics and statistics. This week's column is penned by Joe Longo, NYRA General Manager of Content Services. Send your questions for Between The Hedges to betweenthehedges@nyrainc.com.

The New York State breeding program plays a pivotal role in the racing calendar at New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) tracks throughout the year.

Highlighted by three state-bred stakes days during the Belmont Park and Saratoga Race Course meets, state-bred restricted races represent more than 30 percent of the races run at NYRA tracks.

“The New York breeding program is critical to the success of racing at Aqueduct, Belmont and Saratoga,” said William Alempijevic, Executive Director of the New York Thoroughbred Horsemen's Association. “Combining the opportunity to race in restricted races with the success of New York-breds in open company and parlaying with the lucrative incentives, New York-breds offer a tremendous opportunity to our owner and trainer members alike.”

The state-bred stakes days have grown over the last several years. The Belmont spring/summer meet's Big Apple Showcase Day, which this year offered six restricted stakes worth $900,000 in total purse money, was first run on Memorial Day in 2015 and has maintained that spot on the racing calendar.

In 2015, the total handle on Big Apple Showcase Day was $10,923,487 and has since averaged $12,123,152, reaching a highwater mark of $14,181,204 in 2018.

The Saratoga summer meet's New York Showcase Day is offered on the Friday before Travers Week, and boasted handle of $16,440,423 in 2015. The lucrative state-bred card, to be held this year on August 27 at the Spa, will feature six stakes for state-breds worth a combined $1.15 million.

The popular New York Showcase Day at Saratoga has averaged handle of $18,397,837, reaching as high as $19,337,739 in 2018.

The Empire Showcase Day card at the Belmont fall meet has also enjoyed success, averaging $12,547,341 in handle dating back to 2015.

State-bred restricted offerings vary by meet. In 2020, 33 percent of the races run at Aqueduct Racetrack were state-bred restricted, while Belmont Park [32 percent] and Saratoga [28 percent] also offered a significant number of races restricted to horses bred in the Empire State.

In 2019, 35 percent of the races run at Aqueduct were state bred restricted, slightly higher than the state-bred offerings at Belmont [31 percent] and Saratoga [25 percent].

The purses tendered for these races reflect the importance of the state-bred program with over $28 million in purse money offered at NYRA tracks in 2020, representing 27 percent of the total purses for the year. In 2019, the total purses offered at NYRA tracks for New York-bred races exceeded $40 million, representing 24 percent of the total purses for the year.

From a handle perspective, over $630 million – or 34 percent of total handle – was wagered on state-bred races in 2020, while in 2019 almost $660 million – or 31 percent of total handle – was derived from state-bred races. The strong handle numbers are directly correlated to their participation with average field size of almost nine runners in the last several years.

New York-breds were competitive in open company last year as well, highlighted by Tiz the Law's victory in the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets and the Grade 1 Runhappy Travers at Saratoga.

In 2020, 25 percent of the open-company races run at Aqueduct were won by New York-breds, followed by 15 percent at Belmont Park and 11 percent at Saratoga, amounting to winning 18 percent of the total open-company races run during the year. In 2019, the results were similar.

In addition to New York-bred restricted purse money, there are also breeder and stallion incentives offered within the state. Breeders awards are given to the owner of the mare at the time the mare foals in the state.

There are two tiers available for breeders awards based on purse money earned. The tiers are based on whether the horse is a New York-sired New York-bred by a registered New York stallion or a non-New York-sired New York-bred, sired by an out-of-state stallion or non-registered New York-stallion.

New York-sired first-place finishers receive an additional 30 percent bonus, with second and third-place finishers awarded an additional 15 percent capped at $40,000 per award.

For Non-New York-sired horses, first-place finishers receive an additional 15 percent, with second and third-place finishers awarded an additional 7.5 percent capped at $20,000 per award.

Stallion owners' awards are available for all races run in New York and are paid to owners of stallions registered in the state at the time of conception. The awards are 10 percent of purse money earned for first through third place by progeny of registered New York stallions capped at $10,000 per award.

In addition to the awards above, there is an additional open owner's award for all open-company races in New York with a minimum claiming price of $30,000. There are two tiers similar in structure to the breeders awards.

For New York sired horses, first through third place finishers receive an additional 20 percent of the purse money capped at $20,000 per award. For non-New York-sired horses, first through third place finishers receive an additional 10 percent of the purse money capped at $20,000 per award.

The various incentives, purse money offered, and opportunities to run highlight that is pays to be a New York-bred on the NYRA circuit.

Send your questions for Between The Hedges to betweenthehedges@nyrainc.com.

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Between The Hedges: When it Comes To Racing Festivals, Bigger Is Better

The following is the ninth edition of a bi-weekly series entitled Between The Hedges, discussing the business of betting with a focus on trending wagering topics and statistics. This week's column is penned by Joe Longo, NYRA General Manager of Content Services. Send your questions for Between The Hedges to betweenthehedges@nyrainc.com.

Belmont Stakes Day is the highest handling day on the New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) racing calendar each season and that success has grown over the last several years.

Headlined by the 153rd running of the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets on Saturday, June 5, this year's three-day Belmont Stakes Racing Festival kicks off on Thursday, June 3 and will include 17 stakes races in total with eight Grade 1 races to be contested on Belmont Stakes Day.

The big-day concept was launched at the 2014 Belmont Stakes, the first under NYRA Senior Vice President of Racing Operations Martin Panza, by bundling together major stakes races to showcase the best our sport has to offer at a time when most eyes are watching.

The 2014 Belmont Stakes featured a Triple Crown attempt by California Chrome. Triple Crown attempts have a material impact on the amount wagered and partnered with the newly implemented multi-stakes concept, total commingled handle was $151,109,373 with $90,865,532 bet on the Belmont Stakes itself.

The 2015 Belmont Stakes, which featured American Pharoah's successful Triple Crown run, boasted handle of $135,790,321 with $81,681,147 wagered on the third jewel.

In 2018, when Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner, handle was $137,954,903 with $79,730,023 wagered on the Belmont Stakes.

Excluding the 2020 Belmont Stakes, which was contested at nine furlongs as the first leg of the Triple Crown, handle averaged $98,416,407 with $50,230,988 bet on the race for non-Triple Crown years under the new race day configuration.

Under the former non big-day concept from 2009 through 2013, average handle on Belmont Stakes Day was $86,438,946 with $49,976,130 wagered on the “Test of the Champion.”

The inaugural Belmont Stakes Racing Festival was created in 2015, tying together three races days beginning on the Thursday of Belmont Stakes week and culminating on Belmont Stakes Day.

From 2015 through 2019, Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Thursday has averaged $9,079,847 with a high-water mark of $10,309,890 in 2017.

Compared to years 2009 through 2014, the same day averaged $6,608,287.

Over this same time frame, Belmont Stakes Racing Festival Friday has averaged $17,918,109 with a high of $20,839,703. From 2009 through 2014, the same day averaged $10,562,201.

So, what about the remainder of the big days on the NYRA racing calendar?

The top-five days by average daily handle over the last five years (2015-2019) are led by the Belmont Stakes Day ($113,798,889) followed by Travers Day ($49,470,410) Whitney Day ($30,340,281), Woodward Day ($28,050,290) and Jim Dandy Day ($27,481,055).

Stars & Stripes Day, another concept that began in 2014, has grown steadily since inception when its handle was $18,829,264. Stars & Stripes Day handle has grown steadily over the years reaching $25,766,176 in 2019. Stars & Stripes Day did not take place in 2020 due to restructuring of the stakes calendar caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Average daily handle (net of partial cancellations) has also increased steadily since the introduction of the big-day concept. In 2014, the average daily handle was $8,760,208. In the years 2015 through 2019, daily handle averaged $9,644,765 and a high of $9,906,155 in 2019. For 2020, average daily handle was $11,553,727 representing an increase of $2,793,519 or 32 percent since 2014.

Supporting these big race days along with daily overnight races are purse offerings that averaged $761,567 daily and $170 million annually over a period of five years predating 2020. The three days of the 2019 Belmont Stakes Racing Festival alone saw almost $11 million in purse money distributed.

The results reinforce the growth of the big-day concept and is further solidified by the increase in daily average handle over this time frame. By coupling marquee days with our broadcast television strategy and robust purse offerings, more eyes are on our content than ever before and horseplayers are supporting it on a daily basis.

For additional information and details on hospitality offerings, ticket packages and pricing, visit BelmontStakes.com. For full terms and conditions, visit https://www.belmontstakes.com/tickets.

For additional information on health and safety protocols in effect for the 2021 Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, please visit: https://www.belmontstakes.com/tickets/know-before-you-go.

Send your questions for Between The Hedges to betweenthehedges@nyrainc.com.

The post Between The Hedges: When it Comes To Racing Festivals, Bigger Is Better appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Between The Hedges: Picking Apart The Pick 6

The New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) launched the return of a traditional Pick 6 – at a $1 base with 15 percent takeout –for the current 48-day Belmont Park spring/summer meet.

The Pick 6, part of the latest stage of NYRA's pilot project, replaced the Empire 6, a jackpot style wager featuring a $0.20 bet minimum first offered in August 2019 at Saratoga Race Course. Prior to the Empire 6, NYRA had offered a Pick 6 with a $2 base.

There were three sets of unique circumstances used as comparison points to prompt this change, which resulted after analyzing data covering the months of February and March from the last three years.

In 2019, 31 race days were covered during February and March offering the Pick 6, at a $2 base, posting a handle of $3,333,022 and 1.9 percent of the total handle over this time frame. The average daily pool was $170,517. Of those 31 days, 10 featured carryovers. Removing the carryover impact, the handle was $673,569 and the daily average was $32,075, representing 0.6 percent of total handle.

The Empire 6 was in place for the same time frame in 2020. There were 22 days of racing, with a handle of $5,296,389 for an average daily pool of $240,745. That marked 3.8 percent of our total handle over this time frame. There were three mandatory force-out days that accounted for $3,852,771, or 73 percent of the total handle. Removing this mandatory figure, the handle was $1,443,618 and the daily average was $75,980, representing 1.2 percent of total handle.

This year, in the months of February and March, the Empire 6 was still in place. But the pool had a retail-only restriction and was forced out every race day. Over 28 race days, the total handle was $2,295,755, the daily average was $81,991, representing 1.4 percent of our total handle.

What was the lesson?

Customers look to participate in pools where they can expect to get a player advantage. In this case, the carryover constitutes an effective takeout reduction. It is common to see large multipliers on these pools and could be the difference in making a banner day of handle. The lower base of $0.20 also opened the pools to a completely new demographic of customer that previously did not participate due to the prohibitive cost of coverage at a $2 base.

So, what is the reason for the change back to the Pick 6, but at a $1 base?

The data showed that customers bet back in races within the sequence having handicapped the races already. When the Pick 6 was in place and had a natural carryover, it generated a significant amount of interest. In the year prior to the start of the Empire 6, there were 96 carryovers with the $2 Pick 6 in place. Those carryover cards accounted for 72 percent of the total Pick 6 handle despite being only 40 percent of the sample size.

Through twelve race days of the $1 Pick 6 at the current meet, a total of $1,494,647 has been wagered. The average daily pool has been $124,554. Three one-day carryovers of $61,085, $58,516, and $41,572 took place with new money wagered into the pool the next day ranging anywhere from a multiplier of 3x through 9x.

By comparison, the $2 Pick 6 over twelve race days in 2019 handled $963,566 for a daily average of $80,297. There was a two-day carryover of $23,659 and $87,484 with a 5x multiplier on each day. There was no racing this time last year to compare the Empire 6.

By bringing back the Pick 6 at an accessible $1 base and keeping it a retail-only pool, the wager has already led to three carryovers which should continue as the meet progresses.

Under the daily force-out schedule for the Empire 6 in the previous pilot program, there was no chance for a carryover and the benefit associated with it. The 15 percent takeout on the non-carryover days also falls in line with our Pick 5 that has been sharply trending upwards over the years and proving very popular with our customers.

Is this change permanent?

This format is another variation in the pilot program to find the right size in the Pick 6. Something important to keep in mind is that each of our meets are separate and distinct. One variation of the Pick 6 may work for the Aqueduct fall/winter meet but not for the Belmont fall meet. As such, NYRA will continue to monitor the results going forward.

Send your questions for Between The Hedges to betweenthehedges@nyrainc.com.

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Between The Hedges: Getting A Handle On Handle

Horseplayers can wager on as many as 77 different pools during nine-race cards at each of the New York Racing Association, Inc. (NYRA) tracks comprising Aqueduct Racetrack, Belmont Park and Saratoga Race Course.

With so many options, a handicapper must decide on which wagers to focus on, negotiating a delicate balance between risk and reward in search of the best possible payout.

Over time, the betting public has settled on their favorite wagers at NYRA tracks. The most popular wagers at NYRA in 2020 – by average handle per pool – were the Empire 6 mandatory payout days [$2.8 million], the Early Pick 5 [$546K], the retail-only Late Pick 5 [$444K], and the Late Pick 4 [$429K].

The mandatory payout days of the Empire 6 ranged from $420K on an abbreviated carryover on February 23 to $6.1 million in Saratoga on August 9.

The Empire 6, a jackpot style wager offered at a $0.20 base, shifted to a daily mandatory payout in January 2021 and was replaced at the current Belmont Park spring/summer meet by a traditional Pick 6: a retail-only wager featuring a $1 base and 15 percent takeout with an opportunity for carryover days.

The success of multi-race wagers has garnered much attention. Twitter users post their plays and share their major scores, entire podcasts are dedicated to studying the sequences, and analysts on America's Day at the Races, the acclaimed national telecast produced by NYRA in partnership with FOX Sports, spend airtime discussing their tickets for the audience to follow along.

The multi-race wagers offer the best value on the wagering menu and allow fans the best chance to bet a little to win a lot. But these multi-race options represent only four out of the 77 wagers on a nine-race card. In 2020, the Empire 6 mandatory payout days, Early Pick 5, Late Pick 5, and Late Pick 4 only accounted for 15 percent of all handle.

So, what about the other wagers?

By total handle, the most popular NYRA wager is the exacta, which handled 22 percent of all wagers at NYRA in 2020. A close second was the win pool, which handled 21 percent of all wagers, while the trifecta pool finished third with 12 percent of all wagers.

Because of the sheer number of intra-race pools compared to multi-race pools, total intra-race handle exceeds multi-race pools. But the difference between the two is closing over the years.

2020 Average Handle per Pool and Total Number of Pools

While still popular, there have been noticeable drops in the exacta and trifecta pools as a percentage of total wagers. In 2016, intra-race pools comprised 76 percent of total handle. In 2020, that number was 71 percent. With more than $1.8 billion wagered on NYRA races in 2020, that reflects over $90 million of wagers shifted from intra-race to multi-race wagering.

What has caused the change?

Since 2016, the wagering menu has not changed except for the introduction of the Late Pick Five. First limited in the number of days offered, and only offered to customers of NYRA Bets, the pool eventually became a daily fixture open to the public starting in July 2019.

Additionally, the switch from a traditional $2 Pick Six to the $0.20 Empire 6 in August 2019 created mandatory payout carryover days that were more accessible to the average customer. These two new wagers gave bettors additional higher value opportunities on the back end of the card, which formerly was highlighted by the Late Pick 4. Clearly popular, bettors flocked to the new wagers.

The popularity of the Empire 6 and Late Pick 5 has impacted the handle on the Late Pick 4. Looking at the total percentage of NYRA handle since 2016, the Late Pick 4 is the only Pick N wager to lose significant market share in the NYRA wagering menu landscape. By comparison, the Early Pick 4 at the beginning of the race card has stayed consistent even as the Early Pick 5 grows in popularity.

Percentage of Total NYRA Handle – by Year by Pool

The change to a $1 traditional Pick 6 should provide some differentiation in the later portion of the card, and NYRA is looking forward to analyzing how players respond. This Thursday's card at Belmont will feature a Pick 6 carryover of more than $61,000.

An upcoming edition of Between The Hedges will offer a closer look at the $1 traditional Pick 6, which launched on Thursday's Opening Day card at Belmont.

For more information, please visit www.NYRABets.com and send your questions for Between The Hedges to betweenthehedges@nyrainc.com.

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