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Equibase Analysis: Comebacking Gufo Well-Spotted In Man O’ War

Saturday's Grade 1, $700,000 Man o' War Stakes at Belmont Park drew a field of eight top level marathon turf runners with seven having proven competitive at this level in races around North America. Then there's Sovereign, making his North American debut and returning to the races after last racing in November. Sovereign has earned $1.14 million in his career, top in this field, the bulk of that when winning the Group 1 Irish Derby in the summer of 2019.

Next in terms of earnings is Channel Cat, who won the Grade 2 Bowling Green Stakes in the summer of 2019 as well and who finished second in the Grade 2 Elkhorn Stakes in his most recent race. Another horse which earned a big win in 2019 but not since is Ziyad, who was victorious in the Group 1 Grand Prix de Deauville in August of that year. He makes his third start in the U.S. since importing last fall and has two third place efforts since then. Gufo won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby over this course last fall and just missed in the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby before taking time off, returning for his 2021 debut in this race.

Moon Over Miami won the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer, a race which doesn't yet carry a graded designation but with a seven-hundred thousand dollar purse similar to that of the Man o' War. Field Pass won the Grade 3 Ontario Derby and the Grade 3 Transylvania Stakes last year and makes his second start of 2021 following a fourth place effort in the Grade 1 Maker's Mark Mile. Shamrocket has two wins in 13 career races, none in a stakes race although he was third in the Dueling Grounds Derby last summer. So High rounds out the field and is running in a stakes race for the first time while still eligible for allowance races.

Gufo returns to racing following five months off but that is of no concern when coming back in a marathon on turf like the Man o' War Stakes. Gufo won the second through fifth starts of his career starting in December, 2019, through July of last year when taking the Kent Stakes, then just missed by a head in the $500,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational in August. Next, in his first and only start on the Belmont turf, Gufo won the Belmont Derby in October with a 104 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure which was very strong for a 3-year-old.

In his final race of the year, Gufo was exceptionally game when rallying from last of 11 to be in a three horse photo on the wire, losing by a head and a neck with a 107 figure. The horses which beat him that day, Domestic Spending and Smooth Like Strait, are near the top of the turf division in North America having just finished first (in a dead heat) and third last weekend in the Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic Stakes. Now a more physically mature 4-year-old, Gufo should run even better than he did last year and that makes him the one to beat in this year's Man o' War Stakes.

Field Pass is also a 4-year-old and has a similar pattern to Gufo which suggests he could run a big race in this situation. Last summer, Field Pass proved his stakes quality when winning the Audubon Stakes and Transylvania Stakes in succession. In October, Field Pass earned a career-best figures of 109 when third in the Twilight Derby, won by Smooth Like Strait (who finished third in the Turf Classic last weekend). After winning the Ontario Derby on all-weather in November with a new career-best 110 figure, Field Pass finished fourth in the Mathis Brothers Mile Stakes (won by Smooth like Strait) before resting to begin his 2021 campaign.

In his comeback race last month, Field Pass was not disgraced when finishing fourth of nine in the Maker's Mark Mile and appears very well spotted to improve considerably in his second start of the year to be a factor in this race. Although he's never run this far, as a son of Lemon Drop Kid he should have no problem successfully running the distance because a STATS Race Lens query reveals the sire has produced four top graded stakes winners at similar distances.

Sovereign has been working steadily in Florida and New York for his U. S. debut. He is now in the barn of top trainer Chad Brown, who has a very strong knack with having his horses coming back from layoffs and making their U.S. debuts in top shape. A STATS Race Lens query reveals over the last five years, Brown has won with six of 22 (27%) similar starters in graded stakes. Sovereign earned the biggest win of his career when winning the Irish Derby in 2019 easily by six lengths. Since then, Sovereign has finished second or third in five races. One of those was when second to the incomparable mare Enable in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes last summer at Ascot, an effort which earned a 117 figure good enough to win the Man o' War if repeated.

Honorable mention has to go to Ziyad, who earned a 111 figure last October in his U.S. debut when third and beaten just two lengths in the Sycamore Stakes. Similarly, Channel Cat earned a 115 figure last month when second in the mile and one-half Elkhorn Stakes. As such I wouldn't argue with anyone who considered them contenders to win this race.

Also, Moon over Miami earned a decent 109 figure when second in the Pan American Stakes at a mile and one-half at the end of March and may fit as a contender as well. I don't feel the same way about Shamrocket, who although earning a 109 figure at the end of March did so at a mile and one-eighth and in a non-graded stakes so appears a bit overmatched. So High is definitely overmatched in this field as his best effort earned an 89 figure and he is still eligible for the first allowance condition as well as was running in a claiming level race as recently as December.

Win Contenders:
Gufo
Field Pass
Sovereign (IRE)

Man o' War Stakes – Grade 1
Race 10 at Belmont
Saturday, May 8 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Eighths on Turf
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $700,000

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Versatile Harvey’s Lil Goil Tops Field Of Six In Beaugay

Multiple Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf participants will make their first respective starts of 2021, with Harvey's Lil Goil, Civil Union and Nay Lady Nay comprising a six-horse field in Saturday's Grade 3, $150,000 Beaugay at Belmont Park.

The 44th running of the Beaugay, a 1 1/16-mile inner turf test for older fillies and mares, will see Harvey's Lil Goil, the third-place finisher of the Breeders' Cup contest going 1 3/16 miles on the Keeneland turf in November, make her 4-year-old debut for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott.

Owned by the Estate of Harvey A. Clarke and Paul Braverman, the daughter of 2015 Triple Crown-winning Hall of Famer American Pharoah won a pair of graded stakes in her sophomore campaign, capturing the Grade 3 Regret in June at Churchill Downs going 1 1/8 miles in just her second career turf start.

Next-out, Mott returned her to the main track, where she had run her three previous starts [including a win the Busanda in February 2020 at Aqueduct Racetrack], and she ran third in the Grade 1 Alabama in August at Saratoga Race Course.

The versatile Harvey's Lil Goil was then switched back to grass, where she found a comfort zone in running second in the Dueling Grounds Oaks in September at Kentucky Downs before besting next-out winner Micheline to win the Grade 1 Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup in October at Keeneland. That preceded her Breeders' Cup effort, where she ran just a neck and a head behind the winner Audarya and runner-up Rushing Fall in a blanket finish, registering a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure.

Mott said her success on both surfaces keeps options open, though a strong Beaugay effort could facilitate a start in the Grade 2, $750,000 New York going 1 1/4 miles on the turf on June 4.

“She's been doing fine. We're happy with her,” Mott said. “Interestingly enough, we think she's one that can do both. First things first, if she runs well in the Beaugay we could come back in the New York.”

Junior Alvarado, aboard for the Breeders' Cup effort, will have the return call from the inside post.

Allen Stable's Civil Union is also making her way back to the track after a successful 2020 that saw her win 4-of-6 starts, with all victories coming consecutively. Civil Union posted back-to-back graded scores, with a one-length win in the 1 3/8-mile Grade 2 Glens Falls in September at Saratoga and the 1 1/4-mile Grade 1 Flower Bowl in October at Belmont.

In nine career starts, Civil Union has never posted a Beyer Figure that was less than her previous start, commencing with a 78 for her first-out win in August 2018 and culminating with a personal-best 99 for a competitive fifth-place effort in Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf.

Civil Union, who had been training at Payson Park in Florida, shipped to Belmont and recorded two works. The 6-year-old War Front mare first worked four furlongs on the main track on April 18 and then posted a half-mile breeze in 47.88 seconds on the inner turf course on Sunday.
“She's been doing real good and we're excited to get her out there,” McGaughey said. “I think she likes Belmont. The distance, going a mile and a sixteenth, might not be the perfect spot, but we just need to get her going.”

Joel Rosario will ride from post 5.

Nay Lady Nay will be making her first start at Belmont since running third in the Flower Bowl in October. After running eighth in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf, the Irish-bred 5-year-old will look to record a fourth consecutive Beaugay victory for trainer Chad Brown, who won the 2018-20 editions with A Raving Beauty, Homerique and Rushing Fall. Brown has won this race four times in total, starting with Waterway Run in 2014.

Nay Lady Nay won the Grade 3 Matchmaker going 1 1/8 miles in July at Monmouth Park, adding to her first graded stakes score in the 2019 Grade 2 Mrs. Revere.

“She certainly seems like she's training well,” Brown said of her recent works at Belmont including a five-furlong breeze Sunday in 1:02.54 over the inner turf.

Hall of Famer Javier Castellano will be in the irons from post 3.

Peter Brant's Lemista a dual group stakes-winner in her native Ireland will be making her North American debut after winning four of seven races for previous trainer G.M. Lyons. Brown has taken over the conditioning responsibilities for the 4-year-old Raven's Pass filly, who spent the winter training at Payson Park before shipping to New York and working twice at Belmont in preparation for her first start since September.

“She wouldn't mind some cut in the ground,” Brown said. “She shows some turn-of-foot during her training in the morning. We're really just excited to get the season underway.”

Irad Ortiz, Jr. will ride from post 2.

Bass Stables' Thankful will be trying a surface change after going 3-1-1 in eight main track starts in her career. Trained by newly named Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Thankful started her 4-year-old campaign strong with a win in the Ladies Handicap going 1 1/8 miles over the Aqueduct main track before finishing out of the money in the Heavenly Prize and the Top Flight Invitational.

Luis Saez will have the call in Thankful's turf debut, departing from post 6.

Just In Time Racing's Platinum Paynter, second last out in the one-mile Plenty of Grace over the Aqueduct turf on April 11, will make her first start at Belmont for trainer Juan Vazquez. Luis Rodriguez Castro will ride from post 4.

The Beaugay, listed as Race 6 on the 11-race card, is one of five graded stakes on the Saturday program. The day will be highlighted by the Grade 1, $700,000 Man o' War for 4-year-olds and up going 1 3/8 miles on the turf; the Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan for sophomores going 1 1/8 miles in a prep race for the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes; the Grade 3, $150,000 Runhappy for 4-year-olds and up going six furlongs; and the Grade 3, $150,000 Vagrancy for older fillies and mares competing at 6 1/2 furlongs on the main track. First post is 1 p.m. Eastern.

NYRA Bets is the official wagering platform of Belmont Park, and the best way to bet every race of the spring/summer meet. Available to horseplayers nationwide, the NYRA Bets app is available for download today on iOS and Android at www.NYRABets.com.

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Pletcher Pair Overtook, Promise Keeper Preparing For Belmont In Peter Pan

Newly minted Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher will saddle graded-stakes placed Overtook and two-time winner Promise Keeper in Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan at Belmont Park.

The nine-furlong Peter Pan for sophomores is the traditional local prep for the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes slated for Saturday, June 5 at 1 1/2-miles on Big Sandy.

Saturday's card features five graded stakes, led by the Grade 1, $700,000 Man o' War at 1 3/8-miles on the turf for 4-year-olds and upward and is bolstered by the Grade 3, $150,000 Runhappy, a six-furlong sprint for older horses; the Grade 3, $150,000 Beaugay for older fillies and mares at 1 1/16-miles on turf; and the Grade 3, $150,000 Vagrancy at 6 1/2-furlongs on the main track for filly and mare sprinters 4-years-old and up.

Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable, Michael B. Tabor, Mrs. John Magnier and Derrick Smith's Overtook graduated at third asking with blinkers off traveling a one-turn mile on December 20 at the Big A.

Last out, Overtook, a $1 million purchase at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, rallied from last-of-9 to complete the exacta behind Peter Pan-rival Risk Taking in the nine-furlong Grade 3 Withers on February 6 at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Pletcher said a moderate pace in the Withers may have hampered Overtook's chances.

“He made a sustained run. He's a grinder. He'd benefit from some pace. The further the better,” said Pletcher.

Pletcher said he initially hoped to point Overtook to the nine-furlong Grade 2 Wood Memorial presented by Resorts World Casino on April 3 at Aqueduct, but changed plans after watching the colt train at Palm Beach Downs in Florida.

“We took him down there [to Florida] after the Withers with the idea that we might come back for the Wood,” said Pletcher, who has captured the Peter Pan with Purge [2004], Sunriver [2006], and Madefromlucky [2015]. “It took him a little while to find his best, so we decided to wait for the Peter Pan. It seems like the last two or three weeks, he's really come around.”

Overtook posted a bullet half-mile breeze in 48.32 seconds on April 30 at Palm Beach Downs and Pletcher said he is hoping Overtook will prove worthy of a run at the final leg of the Triple Crown.

“Historically, the Peter Pan has been a good stepping stone to the Belmont,” said Pletcher. “He has a pedigree that suggests he wants to go that far and now it's time to see if he's good enough.”

Hall of Famer John Velazquez, fresh off a Kentucky Oaks–Kentucky Derby double with the Pletcher-trained Malathaat and the Bob Baffert-conditioned Medina Spirit, respectively, will guide Overtook from the inside post. Velazquez captured the Peter Pan for Pletcher in 2004 with Purge and for conditioner Robert Barbara in 1996 aboard Jaimes First Punch.

Woodford Thoroughbreds, WinStar Farm and Rock Ridge Racing's Promise Keeper, purchased for $160,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale, earned a career-best 85 Beyer Speed Figure last out with a 5 1/2-length score in a nine-furlong optional-claiming event on April 8 at Keeneland.

The Constitution chestnut graduated at second asking in February when stretched out to one mile on a sloppy track at Gulfstream, but followed by finishing last-of-12 in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby in March.

Pletcher said the Keeneland win made up for the disappointing Tampa Bay Derby effort.

“It wasn't his day for sure,” said Pletcher. “We just drew a line through it, regrouped at Keeneland and he ran very well that day. We've been pointing for this since then.”

Pletcher said a prominent trip last out proved beneficial for Promise Keeper after being mired behind horses in the Tampa Bay Derby.

“He's one that wants to be involved,” said Pletcher. “He didn't get away great [at Tampa.] He just never got into the race and probably didn't like the surface at Tampa. He trained well after that and I thought the allowance race at Keeneland was impressive.”

Pletcher said he expects Promise Keeper to be versatile, capable of winning at a variety of distances.

“I don't think he needs two turns, but I do think he appreciates the mile and an eighth,” said Pletcher.

Luis Saez retains the mount on Promise Keeper from post 3.

Risk Taking, trained by four-time Eclipse Award-winner Chad Brown for Klaravich Stables, captured the nine-furlong Grade 3 Withers on February 6 at the Big A.

The Medaglia d'Oro bay, a $240,000 Keeneland September Yearling Sale purchase, followed with a flat seventh last out in the nine-furlong Grade 2 Wood Memorial.

Brown said he hopes Risk Taking, who breezed five-eighths in 1:00.34 on May 1 over Big Sandy, can regroup from a less than favorable trip in the Wood Memorial.

“He did take a lot of dirt and was a little wide. We quite liked his chances in that race,” said Brown, who has captured the Peter Pan with Timeline [2017] and Country Grammer [2020]. “He's come back and worked really well. His last work was particularly good for him. It was the best we've seen from him. We're giving it another shot in here to see if he can get back on track.”

Irad Ortiz, Jr. retains the mount from the outermost post 6.

Woodslane Farm homebred Wolfie's Dynaghost earned an 84 Beyer in his impressive debut sprinting seven furlongs over a Big A main track rated good on November 14 when 1 1/2-lengths the better of eventual graded-stakes winner Weyburn.

Tom Albertrani has trained Wolfie's Dynaghost into his second career start at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, where the colt posted a bullet five-eighths breeze in 1:01.20 on April 25.

“He's doing great. He had a bit of time off but he's been training well lately and we're looking forward to getting him back on the track,” Albertrani said. “He showed so much promise the first time he ran. His works prior to that, he showed a lot, so it was great watching him win first-time out.”

By Ghostzapper and out of the Dynaformer mare Dynaire, Wolfie's Dynaghost is a half-brother to the Albertrani-trained Sadler's Joy, a Grade 1 winner and $2.6 million earner.

Jose Ortiz, who won the 2016 Peter Pan aboard Unified, has the call from post 4.

Michael Shanley's Nova Rags was bumped at the start of the Grade 1 Florida Derby last out before making the lead en route to a fourth-place finish on March 27 traveling nine furlongs around two turns at Gulfstream.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott said the rugged start didn't affect the outcome.

“It's horse racing. You don't like to get bumped but it happens,” said Mott. “He got away good and was on the lead.”

The Union Rags chestnut, a Kentucky homebred, graduated at first asking in October sprinting six furlongs at Belmont and completed an abbreviated juvenile campaign with a fourth in the Grade 3 Nashua in November at Aqueduct.

Nova Rags made a winning sophomore debut in the seven-furlong Pasco in January at Tampa Bay Downs ahead of a second at the same track in the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Sam F. Davis won by fellow Mott trainee Candy Man Rocket.

Mott said a return to one-turn racing at Belmont may benefit Nova Rags, who will not be using the Peter Pan as a springboard to the Belmont Stakes.

“He ran well at one turn so I guess the mile and an eighth is the question,” said Mott. “I don't think we'd go to the Belmont with him.”

Nova Rags will exit post 2 under Junior Alvarado.

Rounding out the field is Curragh Stables' I Am the Law, a maiden son of Mshawish purchased for $125,000 at the OBS March Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training.

Trained by John Terranova, I Am the Law has hit the board in both career starts, including a closing second last out in a one-turn mile maiden special weight contested on a sloppy Big A main track on March 28 that garnered a 72 Beyer.

Kenrick Carmouche returns to the irons from post 5.

The Peter Pan is slated as Race 9 on Saturday's 11-race card. First post is 1 p.m.

Belmont Park is now open to a limited number of spectators. All admission must be purchased in advance at nyra.com/belmont/tickets/.

For comprehensive information on health and safety protocols in effect for the Belmont Park spring/summer meet, please visit: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/visit/plan-your-visit.

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Chateau Shortens Up To Headline Saturday’s Runhappy Stakes

Michael Dubb's speedster Chateau turns back to a more favorable distance in Saturday's Grade 3, $150,000 Runhappy, a six-furlong sprint for 4-year-olds and up at Belmont Park.

Saturday's card features five graded stakes, led by the Grade 1, $700,000 Man o' War at 1 3/8-miles on the turf for 4-year-olds and upward and is bolstered by the Grade 3, $200,000 Peter Pan, the local prep for the Belmont Stakes; the Grade 3, $150,000 Beaugay for older fillies and mares at 1 1/16-miles on turf; and the Grade 3, $150,000 Vagrancy at 6 1/2-furlongs on the main track for filly and mare sprinters 4-years-old and up.

Trained by Rob Atras, the 6-year-old Chateau rose to prominence with a solid winter stretch at Aqueduct Racetrack where he posted a record of 2-1-1 from five starts between November and April. His 3 1/2-length score in the Grade 3 Tom Fool Handicap highlighted that run.

With regular pilot Kendrick Carmouche up, Chateau led gate-to-wire in the six-furlong Tom Fool on March 6 to best Wendell Fong. The effort garnered a career-best 98 Beyer Speed Figure.

“Kendrick knowing how to ride him really helps,” said Atras. “I've always liked the horse and thought there was ability there. For some reason, we just weren't getting it out of him. I'm glad it finally clicked this winter.”

The Flat Out gelding, who has yet to win past 6 1/2-furlongs, tried to stretch his speed last out in the seven-furlong Grade 1 Carter Handicap on April 3 at the Big A, but faltered to fourth in a race won by Mischevious Alex in a romp.

“He ran one of the best six furlong races of his life last time, unfortunately the race was seven furlongs,” said Atras, with a laugh.

Atras said Carmouche has a solid understanding of how best to ride Chateau. The Big A fall meet-leading rider has guided Chateau through four of his last five starts, including both wins.

“I think he got his confidence back with Kendrick,” said Atras. “Kendrick rode him the one time and liked him and got along with him. He wasn't able to ride him the next time but he did the time following and he won and then he won again.”

Atras said Chateau now has to demonstrate his improved form will carry to Belmont, where the gelding has a record of two thirds from three starts.

“His top races have always been at Aqueduct, so he still has to prove he can run those big numbers against top horses at Belmont,” said Atras. “Hopefully, he puts in a top effort and shows that he can do it.”

Chateau will exit post 3 with Carmouche in the irons.

Mr. Amore Stable homebred Firenze Fire, trained by Kelly Breen, will make his first start since finishing second in the seven-furlong Grade 3 Mr. Prospector at Gulfstream Park in December.

The 6-year-old Florida-bred son of Poseidon's Warrior boasts a record of 31-12-4-3 with purse earnings in excess of $2.2 million. Last season, Firenze Fire won a trio of graded events, including the Grade 3 General George at Laurel Park along with the Grade 2 True North and Grade 2 Vosburgh at Belmont.

Firenze Fire won the 2019 edition of the Runhappy when it was an ungraded event. Irad Ortiz, Jr. retains the mount from post 4.

Misty Hollow Farm's multiple Group 3-winner Drafted, a 7-year-old Field Commission gelding, will look to get back on track for trainer David Duggan.

Drafted enjoyed a profitable 2019 campaign for former conditioner Doug Watson with two wins and a runner-up effort at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai, including Group 3 scores in the Al Shindagha Sprint and Mahab Al Shimaal.

Winless in seven starts since the Mahab Al Shimaal, Drafted has made his last three starts at Aqueduct where his best result was a third in the 6 1/2-furlong Gravesend contested on a muddy track.

Last out, Drafted finished an even fourth in the Grade 3 Toboggan at seven furlongs on January 30.

Drafted, racing with cheek pieces off, will emerge from the outermost post 5 under Luis Saez.

Long Lake Stable's multiple graded stakes-placed Stan the Man, a 7-year-old Broken Vow chestnut, sports a consistent record of 8-1-2-2 at Belmont Park.

The versatile gelding captured the nine-furlong Queens County at the Big A in 2019 and last year won the six-furlong Tale of the Cat at Saratoga Race Course.

Trained by John Terranova, Stan the Man would relish a sloppy track on Saturday. Through seven starts on wet footing, Stan the Man boasts a record of three wins and three seconds, including a smart allowance win traveling a one-turn mile in the slop at Belmont in May 2018.

Joel Rosario, aboard for the Tale of the Cat score, has the call from the inside post.

Mercy Man Racing's Town Classic will make his 50th career start in search of his first stakes win for trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr.

Bred in Ontario by Ballycroy Training Center, the 8-year-old Speightstown gelding has hit the board 35 times with six wins and a remarkable 20 runner-up efforts. Last out, Town Classic finished third for the ninth time when completing the trifecta in the seven-furlong Sir Shackleton on March 27 at Gulfstream Park.

Jose Ortiz will pilot Town Classic from post 2.

The Runhappy is slated as Race 4 on Saturday's 11-race card. First post is 1 p.m.

Belmont Park is now open to a limited number of spectators. All admission must be purchased in advance at nyra.com/belmont/tickets/.

For comprehensive information on health and safety protocols in effect for the Belmont Park spring/summer meet, please visit: https://www.nyra.com/belmont/visit/plan-your-visit.

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