belmont | Horse Racing Free Tips

Off-Turf Pennine Ridge Downgraded

The GII Pennine Ridge S. at Belmont was downgraded to a Grade III event after coming off the turf last Saturday, according to a TOBA release. The American Graded Stakes Committee reviewed the result and determined that the original Grade II status would not be reinstated.

It is the policy of the American Graded Stakes Committee that a race that is scheduled for the turf course, but is moved to the dirt track after the closing of nominations because the turf course is unsuitable for racing, is automatically downgraded one level for that running only. The Committee will, however, review the running of any race that is automatically downgraded as a result of this policy and may reinstate its former status.

Friday's Penn Oaks and Sunday's Paradise Creek S., which were also rained off the turf, will both be recorded as run, as non-listed black-type events.

The post Off-Turf Pennine Ridge Downgraded appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World Could Prove Tough To Catch In Belmont Stakes

Back in its traditional spot on the calendar five weeks after the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby, the Grade 1, $1.5 Million Belmont Stakes doesn't have a Triple Crown on the line, or even the Derby winner trying to make amends for losing the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes. What the Belmont does have is a field of eight including five horses which ran in the Derby and then expressly sat out the Preakness for this opportunity. Those five horses, with their Derby placings, are Hot Rod Charlie (third), Essential Quality (fourth), Known Agenda (ninth), Bourbonic (13th) and Rock Your World (17th). Preakness winner Rombauer tries to win the last two legs of the Triple Crown, while France Go de Ina attempts to improve off a seventh of 10 finish in that race. Overtook rounds out the field, having finished third in the Grade 3 Peter Pan Stakes over the track four weeks ago.

Analysis Part One – Main Contenders

The strategy for Rock Your World in the Derby was to go to the lead just as he had done one month earlier winning the Santa Anita Derby, earning a career best 103 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure figure in the process. That plan was laid to rest immediately when one of jockey Joel Rosario's feet came out of the irons, resulting in a shift in his weight and more importantly, the inability to get the colt to the front. From there both horse and jockey could do nothing but watch as his #1 weapon was neutralized. Shipping back to California for three strong workouts, the most recent a five furlong drill in :58.4 which was the best of 34 on the day, lightning is highly unlikely to strike twice. As such, Rock Your World should be able to control the pace from the start, possibly slowing the tempo down to below average, and go on for the win in the same manner as a number of winners of the Belmont in the last 20 years such as D' Tara, Justify and American Pharoah.

In spite of finishing fourth of 19 as the betting favorite in the Derby, Essential Quality continued a pattern of improvement started in his first start of the year as a three year old in February. The talented colt won the Southwest Stakes with a 105 figure before a career-best 109 ™ figure in the Blue Grass Stakes in April. In the Derby, Essential Quality made a rallying move while wide to go from seventh (five and one-half lengths back) to fourth (three-quarters of a length back) with a quarter mile to go but ran evenly thereafter. Although the 109 figure was the same, one thing Essential Quality has in his favor for the Belmont is his tactical speed because if he sits second in the early stages as he did in the Blue Grass, he may be able to pass Rock Your World in the final strides where he was unable to pass Medina Spirit in the Derby. The reason for this is his pedigree, as Essential Quality is the only son of Tapit in the field. Tapit produced the 2014 (Tonalist), 2016 (Creator) and 2017 (Tapwrit) winners of the Belmont. Tapit produces horses which can run 12 furlongs and more as evidenced by STATS Race Lens Query which reveals the sire has produced 13 different winners at distances from a mile and one-half to two miles over the last five years, accounting for 18 wins, with six of those coming at Belmont Park.

Known Agenda ran just a bit less poorly in the Derby as opposed to Rock Your World, checking in ninth after advancing from last of 19 in the early stages. That's insignificant as compared to his two races prior to that. He added blinkers for the first of the pair in February and won by 11 lengths with a 103 figure. Next he won the Florida Derby with a 112 figure and did so easily. Known Agenda is trained by Todd Pletcher, as is Bourbonic and Overtook. Pletcher has won this race with Rags to Riches (2007), Palace Malice (2013) and Tapwrit (2017). Considering his win in the Florida Derby earned a 112 figure, which is the best figure earned by any horse in this field, and considering North American leading jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. rides the colt for the fourth straight time, Known Agenda could bounce back to top form and post the mile upset to win.

Analysis Part Two – Second Tier Contenders

As for Rombauer, although he has improved in each race as a 3-year-old, going from a 95 figure, to 100, to 103 in the Preakness, I have concerns about his ability to run a mile and one-half as well as his ability to stay close early. Historically, a few horses have come from far back which is the way Rombauer likes to run, but for the most part winners of the Belmont have either led from the start or been within two lengths for most of the race. Considering the likely early pace edge Rock Your World possesses, Rombauer could be relegated to a minor award.

Similarly, Hot Rod Charlie's third place effort in the Derby may give bettors incentive to bet him more heavily than is appropriate given his somewhat low probability to win in my opinion. Hot Rod Charlie earned a 97 figure when beaten a neck by Medina Spirit in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in January, before improving to 99 when winning the Louisiana Derby in April. In the Kentucky Derby, Hot Rod Charlie moved up quickly after a half-mile to get into third position then kept that same position the entire last six furlongs of the race. It is possible he could be sitting in second behind Rock Your World in the early portions of the Belmont instead of Essential Quality, but I see jockey Luis Saez on Essential Quality being more aggressive from his inside post and denying Hot Rod Charlie that opportunity, which means he would have to out finish Rock Your World who has run slowly on the lead from the start. Considering he couldn't pass Medina Spirit the entire length of the stretch in the Derby, I think that's a tall order.

Analysis Part Three – Non-Contenders:

There are few horses which don't seem to be at the same level as the rest, so it appears logical to eliminate those as win contenders. Bourbonic started 18th in the Derby and ended up 13th. Prior to that he earned a 100 figure winning the Wood Memorial at odds of 72 to 1, and prior to that had no stakes experience at all. As a matter of fact he broke his maiden in a maiden claiming race. He just doesn't seem good enough or fast enough to be competitive.

Similarly, Overtook finished second in the Withers Stakes in February off a maiden win with a 97 figure then took three months off and ran evenly from start to finish in the Peter Pan Stakes with a 99 figure. Overtook is one of three trained by Todd Pletcher, shares some ownership with Known Agenda and adds blinkers. He doesn't appear fast enough to take on likely early leader Rock Your World but then again stranger things have happened. Still, although a pace factor I don't see him being in the top three at the end.

France Go de Ina pressed the pace when third in the early stages of the Preakness then faded to seventh, earning a 78 figure. It would take an astronomical amount of improvement for him to be competitive here in my opinion.

Win Contenders:
Rock Your World
Essential Quality
Known Agenda

Belmont Stakes – Grade 1
Race 11 at Belmont Park
Saturday, June 5 – Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Half
Three Years Old
Purse: $1.5 Million
T.V.: NBC 5 – 7 PM E.T.

The post Equibase Analysis: Rock Your World Could Prove Tough To Catch In Belmont Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Pletcher To Saddle Potent One-Two Punch In Brooklyn Invitational

Trainer Todd Pletcher will be well-represented with three contenders in Saturday's Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets. But the Hall of Fame conditioner will also send out a strong contingent in another 1 1/2-mile graded stakes contest on the day, with Ajaaweed and Moretti forming a potent one-two punch in the Grade 2, $400,000 Brooklyn Invitational presented by Northwell Health for 4-year-olds and up.

Carded as Race 4 on the 13-race slate, the 134th running of the Brooklyn is part of a sensational card on Saturday at Belmont Park that includes nine graded stakes and eight Grade 1 events, making it the only Grade 2 race on the Breeders' Cup-quality program.

Pletcher, who won last year's Brooklyn edition with Marconi, has a strong chance for repeat success with Shadwell Stable's homebred Ajaaweed, who improved suddenly last out in the Flat Out on April 30 over Big Sandy.

Ajaaweed showed potential when starting his career in former trainer Kiaran McLaughlin's barn as a 2-year-old in 2019 before he abruptly fell off the Kentucky Derby Trail in early 2020.

The Curlin colt was given an 11-month respite, returning in January at Gulfstream Park for Pletcher. His first back featured an eighth-place finish, beaten 26 ½ lengths in a one-mile optional claimer, on January 31. His fortunes didn't improve much in his next start at Aqueduct Racetrack, where he was again beaten double-digit lengths on March 14. But everything changed once he was stretched out to 1 3/8 miles in the Flat Out, as he closed strongly in the stretch to nearly overtake Musical Heart before settling for second.

“He gave us that impression he would do well with some added distance,” Pletcher said of Ajaaweed, who earned a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his Flat Out performance. “He just keeps galloping. He was coming on strong there in the end, he just got up there a little too late. Hopefully, we identified what he really wants to do.”

With Ajaaweed being a potential up-and-comer at marathon distances, the other half of the Pletcher's duo, Moretti, brings much-needed experience to the table for owners Repole Stable and Eclipse Thoroughbreds.

The 5-year-old son of Medaglia d'Oro hasn't run since August 2 of last year, when he won the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone at Saratoga Race Course, though his proficiency at longer distances is well-documented. Coincidentally, it was actually in the 2020 edition of the Flat Out that Moretti first showed an affinity for marathons. He won the 1 3/8-mile race by 5 ¼ lengths and followed with a second-place finish in the Grade 2, 1 1/4-mile Suburban before his year came to a premature end in the Birdstone.

“I think this is what he does best,” Pletcher said. “It's a tall order to run a mile and a half off the long layoff. I hope we have him fit enough. I like the way he breezed on Friday; he galloped out nice and strong so hopefully that's got him nice and cranked up.”

Ajaaweed and Moretti will break from posts 7 and 6, respectively, with Hall of Famer John Velazquez and Irad Ortiz, Jr. set to ride.

The winner of the Flat Out, Musical Heart, will also be back for more in the Brooklyn. A $62,500 claim by trainer Rob Atras and owners Michael Dubb and Michael Caruso on November 13 of last year, Musical Heart had been knocking on the door in stakes company for his new connections until his breakthrough finally came in the Flat Out, which he won in wire-to-wire fashion by three-quarters of a length with a 99 Beyer. The 6-year-old son of Maclean's Music will break from post 5 with Kendrick Carmouche aboard.

The Brooklyn additionally attracted a few out-of-town shippers to spice up an eclectic lineup of older dirt horses. Chief among these runners is the 4-year-old Tizamagician, who hails from California and enters the race off a dominant, nine-length win in the Grade 3 Tokyo City on April 18 at Santa Anita Park.

A Tiznow colt trained by Hall of Famer Richard Mandella for MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm, Tizamagician has really come to hand in 2021, with a win in an optional claimer to begin the year and runner-up finish in the Grade 2 San Pasqual to go along with his coming-out party in the 1 ½-mile Tokyo City. He will be ridden by Flavien Prat from post 8.

Joining Tizamagician from the West Coast is veteran marathoner Campaign, who's had a down 2021 thus far but is a two-time graded stakes-winner at the distance and missed by less than a length in this race in 2019. Trained by John Sadler for Woodford Racing, Campaign will break from post 3 with Luis Saez in the irons as he looks to bounce back following a distant fourth-place finish in an optional claimer at Oaklawn Park on April 11.

“He's coming into it well,” Sadler said. “We're adding the blinkers for this race. He's trained well with them on at Santa Anita. Two years ago, he was right there and just got beat, so we're going back. The big wide turns and the distance should suit him.”

Ubiquitous horseman Robertino Diodoro will be represented by Lone Rock, another shipper that appears well meant in this spot. Reminiscent of Musical Heart, Lone Rock was claimed by Diodoro and owner Flying P Stable for $40,000 last fall at Churchill Downs, and the 6-year-old gelding has been terrific in 2021, particularly at 12 furlongs.

Three starts ago, Lone Rock just missed in the 1 1/2-mile Temperence Hill at Oaklawn Park, and he's since rattled off two victories at this distance, including an open-length score last out in the Marathon Overnight on April 27 at Churchill Downs. Lone Rock will again be ridden by Ramon Vazquez, who has been aboard for his last two wins, and the duo will depart from the outermost post 9.

Rounding out the field for the Brooklyn are Ry's the Guy and You're to Blame, second and fourth, respectively, last out in the Marathon Overnight, and Rocketry, a salty older marathoner for trainer Jimmy Jerkens who finished third in the Flat Out in his most recent outing.

The post Pletcher To Saddle Potent One-Two Punch In Brooklyn Invitational appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post

Powerhouse Stables Of Appleby, Brown Make Up Half The Field In Just A Game

Twelve stakes winners, including 11 graded/group stakes winners—all seeking their first turf Grade 1 score comprise the dozen entered in Saturday's $500,000 Longines Just a Game over one mile on the Widener turf course.

The powerhouse stables of Charlie Appleby and Chad Brown make up half of those in a race that has traditionally showcased some of the best turf females in training, including eight Breeders' Cup winners.

Trainer Charlie Appleby has sent out a mere 15 starters in North America since becoming a head conditioner for Godolphin in 2013, but has won with five of those and earned more than $2.9 million. A pair of grey 4-year-old fillies with stakes victories during Meydan Racecourse's 2021 Dubai World Cup Carnival, Althiqa [post 8, Hall of Famer Mike Smith] and Summer Romance [post 9, Luis Saez], deserve plenty of respect shipping over from England.

Althiqa closed from last to land the one-mile Group 2 Cape Verdi in late January, knocking off her favored stablemate, who tired to fifth after making the running. Summer Romance would make amends three weeks later in the nine-furlong Group 2 Balanchine, running the field off its feet in gate-to-wire fashion. Althiqa checked in third.

While Althiqa is a homebred who has steadily ambled her way up the ranks, it is clear that Summer Romance—an $898,800 daughter of Kingman and half-sister to multiple Group 1 winner Rizeena—has been held in slightly higher regard.

“They all travelled over well and have trained well since they've been there,” Appleby said. “There's been a little rain and the track's very wet this weekend. The fillies are fit and well and have plenty of experience under their belt. The reason we went to America is they carry Group 2 penalties here in Europe for the forthcoming season and the Group 1 older fillies races aren't until later in the year, anyway, so we thought it might be a good opportunity to get a Grade 1.”

Chad Brown's quartet is led by Peter Brant's Blowout [post 11, Flavien Prat], a gate-to-wire winner of the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile last out at Churchill Downs. A daughter of Dansili and French classic winner Beauty Parlour, she cured a case of seconditis in the process after completing the exacta in a trio of events, led by a nose loss in the Grade 1 Matriarch in November at Del Mar.

“Flavien really gets along with her well,” Brown said. “We saw that in the Matriarch. He has great hands and she can be difficult, but he really gets along with her and timed it right. She likes this track very much. She ran one of the best races I've ever had a horse run in defeat that day [in the Grade 3 Noble Damsel, September 26], when she got away from Johnny [Velazquez] and went 44 [seconds for the half-mile] and kept going. I don't know how she was still there at the end. If she can settle at all, she has a good closing kick. She has run well on good ground in the past, but I prefer for it to be firm.”

Brant also entered Regal Glory [post 4, Hall of Famer Javier Castellano], fourth in this last year and cross-entered in Thursday's Grade 3 Intercontinental.

Brown's Grade 2 Sands Point-winner Tamahere [post 10, Jose Ortiz] kicked off her season with a respectable second in the Grade 1 Jenny Wiley at Keeneland on April 10. Owned by Swift Thoroughbreds, Madaket Stables and Wonder Stables, the daughter of in-form stallion Wootton Bassett appears primed for a top effort.

“This filly would be no shock to win this race, either,” Brown said. “She's going to really appreciate the cut back to a mile and she loves Belmont. She's been training very well and is a legitimate contender here.”

The fourth for Brown is Juddmonte's Pocket Square [post 6, Irad Ortiz Jr.], who seeks to build off a strong American debut, winning by open lengths at Keeneland on April 7. By smart young stallion Night of Thunder, the chestnut 4-year-old makes her sixth start and owns a stakes win in the Group 3 Prix des Reservoirs at Deauville in 2019.

“She's a pretty good horse and reminds me of some other talented horses I've had,” Brown said. “We did this with Antonoe, going from an allowance at Keeneland to the Just a Game, which she won. She's pretty good and we're lucky to have her. I think she's lined up for a good one.

“Interestingly, she shipped over last year to run in the Saratoga Oaks and she had an issue out of quarantine where she needed some time off,” Brown continued. “Fortunately, the team at Juddmonte did a fantastic job and sent her back to us this winter all healed up and healthy. We did our normal move, like (Bobby) Frankel would have done, which is take our time, find an allowance at Keeneland and then go from there. As impressive as she was in that race, she's come out of it and even taken it up another notch in her workouts. She's been exceptional.”

The three who finished directly astern Blowout in the Distaff Turf Mile—R Unicorn Stable's New York Girl [post 12, Junior Alvarado], Heider Family Stables' Zofelle [post 1, Tyler Gaffalione] and Apogee Racing's Abscond [post 7, Joel Rosario]—will hope to extinguish said rival this time around.

Joseph Imbesi's Sweet Bye and Bye [post 2, Jose Lezcano]—second in the Grade 3 Marshua's River in January to Zofelle—is cross-entered in Thursday's Intercontinental, while Repole Stable's Always Shopping [post 5, Hall of Famer John Velazquez] is cross-entered in Friday's Grade 2 New York.

Jim and Susan Hill's multiple Grade 1-placed Daddy Is a Legend [post 3, Manny Franco], who owns the highest Beyer Speed Figure in the field [102], looks to improve upon her third-place finish in this event in 2019.

The Belmont Stakes Racing Festival runs from Thursday through Saturday, June 5, culminating with the 153rd running of the Grade 1, $1.5 million Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets. The festival will encompass 17 total stakes, including eight Grade 1s on Belmont Stakes Day, capped by the “Test of the Champion” for 3-year-olds in the 1 1/2-mile final leg of the Triple Crown. First post on Belmont Stakes Day is 11:35 a.m. Eastern

The Just a Game is slated as Race 8 on Saturday's 13-race card.

The post Powerhouse Stables Of Appleby, Brown Make Up Half The Field In Just A Game appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

Source of original post